competitive pressures for long term supported control systems products
TRANSCRIPT
Standards
Certification
Education & Training
Publishing
Conferences & Exhibits
Competitive Pressures
Innovation and the resolution of social and competitive pressures in Long Term Systems Products
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Christopher J Smith• M.Eng.Sci. (Systems and Control ) UNSW,
Australia 1989
• Brand Director, Foxboro SCADA– 23 years today– FAX - Web 1 - Web 2 Era– Fortran,Pascal,C,C++– Prolog– Carbon Paper,Telex,Fax,Email– Blog,Twitter
SYDNEY, Australia
@CJX07STER
Invensysscada.blogspot.com
Motivation
“Why so scrawny, cat?Starving for fat fish or mice...
Or backyard love?” ― Matsuo Bashō, Japanese Haiku
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ISA 2013
ISA 2012
On Fat Fish….
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On love and texting…
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This sentence was written from Washington by me at the Baltimore Terminal at 8h.45 min AM on Friday May 24th. 1844, being the first ^ever transmitted from Washington to Baltimore ^by
telegraph, and was indited by my much loved friend, Annie G. Ellsworth. Samuel F B Morse, Superintendent of Elec. Mag. Telegrams.
Emotive Disruption
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1840 1850 1860 1870
Transatlantic Cable
Lincoln Johnson GrantBuchananPeirceFilmoreZTPolkTyler
Morse’s Test Telegram
Transcontinental Telegraph Service
Trans-Tasman Cable [Australia]
Overland Telegraph[Australia]
• Electromagnetism Discovered [1820] - Orsted• Electromagnet invented [1824] – Sturgeon• Practical Electromagnets Engineered [1820s] – Henry
Social Tribal – Competitive Economic
Social Tribal• Continuously evolving
improvement or degradation, marked by rapid discontinuous disruptions
• WAR / ego• Trade Barriers• Export Controls
Competitive Pressure
• Internal• Industry• Standards• Acquisition• Merger• Restructure
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Modelling the Effect
Features• Bass Forecaster Model• Gartner Hype Model• Hotelling Model• Game Theory• Choice Modelling• Path Dependence Factors
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𝑑 (𝑡 ) 𝑒−𝑡 /𝑘
⟦1 0 00 1 00 0 1⟧
Discrete to Continuous Innovation
Continuous constrained by Discrete Innovation
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Photo: JRonaldLee:flickr:cc attrib.
A typical long lifecycle system
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1932 2032
CPUPower
Card File
IO Modules
Historical Installed Base Path Dependence
Fujitsu Notebook Example
Model Component ANCIENT PRODUCT RECENT PRODUCT Comment
NEW Chassis Not Exchangeable Replaces Old Chassis No Longer Available - From Jan 2014 Expand with New Chassis
NEW PS Not Compatible Replaces
NEW I/O Not Compatible Replaces
NEW CPU Derived from New Replaces Specialization Kits
NEW Tools Compatible Compatible NEW tool can configure ANCIENT/OLD/NEW systems and mixed Architecture
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Minimize perceived cost to switch path
My 5 principles of Long Term Support
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1. Retain and extend any configuration language [20 years+]
2. Update Config Tools frequently3. Add New and never delete Old
Hardware models4. Make new Modules fit Older Module
Racks to extend installation life.5. Provide an Expandable inclusive
architecture supporting co-existent common family designs.
Measuring Competitive Pressure
• Restricted Entry as an increase:-– degree of product substitutability– number of competitors.
• Free entry as an increase:-– degree of product substitutability– size of the market– in the ease of entry (decrease in the entry cost)
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Innovation and competitive pressureXavier VivesIESE Business School and UPFNovember 26, 2007
Continuous and Discrete Innovation
• “In particular, our model predicts that, in contrast to previous theoretical findings, an increase in competitive pressure measured by product substitutability may decrease firms’ incentives to conduct continuous improvement, and that an increase in the size of discrete innovation may decrease firms’ incentives to conduct continuous improvement.”
100 years of continuous improvement in the 19” rackModelled on the lifting dimensions of a human beingSeems somewhat destined to continueUnless something else happens …
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IZA DP No. 3132 : Discrete Innovation, Continuous Improvement, and Competitive Pressure
Arghya Ghosh University of New South WalesTakao Kato Colgate University, Columbia Business School, University of Tokyo, Aarhus School of Business and IZAHodaka Morita University of New South Wales
Massive Disruption and Innovation in Computing, Communications – 2000 to 2020
Computing per Watt
• Currently 1Gflop/Watt is the best available
• DARPA/SRI ‘PERFECT’ project kicked off 2012 aim for 75Ggflop/Watt by around 2017 for HPEC High Performance Embedded Computers
Space and Efficiency
• Challenge to the 19” Rack Standard
• Facebook’s ‘Open Compute Project’ Open Rack Spec Sept 18 2012
• Focus now on Power Efficiency for the Rack as a whole. Airflow - Cooling
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SPACE, WEIGHT and POWER
2012/13 – The Open Rack Standard
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Open Source Designs for Data Centres[courtesy Michael Ocampo : AMAX.com]
https://www.facebook.com/#!/groups/opencompute/
An application of the Hotelling model
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Equipment Automation ITFacebook
Chatter
19”
Ope
n
?
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MyPreferredSystem
PRODUCT
MyBig 5
Global Delivery
My Partner Integrators
Owner of my Installed Base
OtherIntegrator
OtherSystem
PRODUCT
Installed Base
CompetingBig 5
Vendor
Vendor Key Accounts,
MajorsMega
ProjectsMy Historical LTS
Product
Customer Choice and Switching to a different Equilibrium
Summary
20Photo: Paul Stevenson: Flickr
Stairs Lynn Chadwick
[Chatsworth House]
Thankyou
Your thoughts ?
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Invensysscada.blogspot.com@CJX07STER