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Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201

EVERY CORPSE ON EVEREST WAS ONCE AN EXTREMELY MOTIVATED PERSON, HIGHLY ENGAGED WITH INSPIRED LEADERS

Material in this presentation is either Copyright © 2016 Bangor University or Cognitive Edge Pte Ltd.. All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law

THE CYNEFIN CENTRE: NAVIGATING COMPLEXITY IN SOCIAL SYSTEMS

ISSUES WITH CASE BASED EVIDENCE

24 radiologists were asked to perform a familiar lung nodule detection task.

A picture of a gorilla, 48 times larger than the average nodule, was inserted in the last case.

83% of radiologists did not see the gorilla.

Eye-tracking showed that the majority of the those who missed the gorilla looked directly at it

Drew, Vo & Wolfe Psychol Sci. Sep 2013; 24(9): 1848–1853



DIVERSITY OF PERSPECTIVE, WORKING WITH CHAOS


COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMSDEALING WITH INHERENT UNCERTAINTY


…IT’S COMPLEX

IF THE EVIDENCE SUPPORTS CONFLICTING HYPOTHESES AND CONTRADICTION CAN NOT BE RESOLVED WITHIN THE AVAILABLE TIME THEN …



CYNEFIN A SENSE-MAKING FRAMEWORK …

ComplicatedGoverning constraints sense-analyse-respond

Good Practice

ObviousRigid constraints

sense-categorise-respond Best Practice

ChaoticAbsence of constraints

act-sense-respond Novel Practice

ComplexEnabling constraints probe-sense-respond Emergent Practice

Cynefin allows us to understand how to act in different contexts

no domain is better than any other


UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES

THE ONLY INEVITABILITY



PROBING TO UNDERSTAND

▸ All experiments must be: ▸ Safe to fail ▸ coherent ▸ take place in parallel over the

same time period

▸ Within the portfolio: ▸ there must be contradiction ▸ at least one must be naive ▸ optional one or more can be

oblique



CYNEFIN A SENSE-MAKING FRAMEWORK

Complicated

ObviousChaotic

Complex

It's not just about the domains it's also dyamics

Managing continuous flow requires radically different architecture


UNARTICULATED NEEDS



MAPPING DISPOSITIONS AND NUDGE THEORY

0 20 40 60 80 100

020

4060

80100

Doing it Right

An

inte

nse

driv

e to

ach

ieve

0 20 40 60 80 100

020

4060

80100

Doing it Right

Wel

l def

ined

pro

cess

es a

nd p

roce

dure

s



… AND ‘FRACTAL’ MANAGEMENT

20 40 60 80 100

020

4060

80

Doing it Right

An

inte

nse

driv

e to

ach

ieve

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

2040

6080

100

Over the top stressful

Pre

ssur

e fro

m m

anag

emen

t

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

020

4060

80100


Pre

ssur

e fro

m m

anag

emen

t

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

020

4060

80100


Pre

ssur

e fro

m s

elf

0 20 40 60 80 100

020

4060

80100

Self Imposed

An

inte

nse

driv

e to

ach

ieve

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Freedom too far

Dea

dlin

es to

o fa

r

“the English verb ‘to manage’ was originally derived from the Italian maneggiare, meaning to handle and train horses. .... the emphasis is on learning with, abiding with, adapting to, respecting, and working with another complex entity: the horse and rider as co-evolving brambles in a wider thicket of social traditions surrounding beauty and form. Around the early 18th century, this original meaning merged with the French term menage, or household, making it easier to adapt the meaning of the combined term manage to the metaphor of the obedient machine, to the corridors of power, and to the actions of controlling and directing.”

Kurtz, C.F.; Snowden, D.J. (2003). "The new dynamics of strategy: Sense-making in a complex and complicated world"

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