components of the perfect storm global demographics and the impact on the united states community...

Components of the Perfect Storm

Global Demographics and the Impact on the United States

Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

September 27, 2007

This Presentation was Drawn from Major Works in the Field

Long Term Global Demographic Trends: Reshaping the Geopolitical Landscape. Washington DC: Central Intelligence Agency, July 2001.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision Highlights. New York: United Nations, 2007.

E. Weiner and A Brown. Future Think: How to Think Clearly in a Time of Change. New York: Prentice Hall, Inc., 2005.


By 2020…What will be the World’s Population Distribution?

The world’s population will be more than 7.8 billion people in 2020.

Of 100 people, how many will be: ___ from Asia (including 19 Chinese and 17 Indians)? ___ from the Northern Hemisphere including the US? ___ from Africa (including 13 from Sub-Saharan Africa)? ___ from the Middle East? ___ from Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union? ___ from Western Europe?

Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term Global Demographic Trends: Reshaping the Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001).


By 2020 the World’s Population Will be More than 7.8 Billion People


Of 100 people, this is projected to be the mix:

56 from Asia (including 19 Chinese and 17 Indians) 13 from the Northern Hemisphere including the US 16 from Africa (including 13 from Sub-Saharan Africa) 3 from the Middle East 7 from Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union 5 from Western Europe


Key Findings from the Global Trends Indicate a Reshaping of the Global Landscape…Some Highlights

Demographic trends will reshape the global landscape. The population of Europe and Russia will shrink

dramatically, from 22% in 1950, to 13% in 2000, to 7.5% in 2050.

Only the US and Russia will remain on the list of the top 10 most populous nations from 1950.

Of the 1.5 billion people that the world population will gain by 2020, most will be added to states in Asia and Africa.



Key Findings from the Global Trends Indicate a Reshaping of the Global Landscape…Some Highlights, continued:

By 2015, for the first time in history, a majority of the world’s population will live in cities.

By 2050, the global 65+ age cohort will triple in size to about 1.5 billion, or 16% of the total population.

Despite the overall trend toward aging, many developing nations will experience substantial youth bulges: Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq.

Global migration may lend some stabilization to both sending and receiving countries.

Environmental issues will disrupt population projections in ways not readily apparent.



A Snapshot of the Global Demographic Trends



Key Global Demographic Trends Are Attributed to Multiple Causes

Population Growth Aging of the Population

Differences in fertility rates Difference in life expectancy

Migration Urbanization Youth Bulge Environmental Factors Health Natural Disasters and ConflictsSource: Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term Global Demographic Trends: Reshaping the Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001).


Take a Closer Look at Four Global Firsts

Population Growth

Aging of the Population

Differences in fertility rates

Difference in life expectancy

Migration

Urbanization


Global First #1:

Population Growth Tops 9 Billion


Global Population Growth is Driven By Developing Countries

World Population 1950-2050.

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (2005).

6.1 B

8.7 B

2.5 B


Changes in Population Over Time Reveal Developed Countries are Becoming Smaller



10 Largest Countries in the World in 2007 and 2050 Projections

Population (millions) Population (millions)

China 1,318 India 1,747India 1,132 China 1,437United States 302 United States 420Indonesia 232 Indonesia 297Brazil 189 Pakistan 295Pakistan 169 Nigeria 282Bangladesh 149 Brazil 260Nigeria 144 Bangladesh 231Russia 142 Dem. Rep. of Congo 187Japan 128 Philippines 150

2007 2050

Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2007 World Population Data Sheets (2007).


Global First #2:

Prolonged Aging of the Population

• Longer life span

• Lower fertility


Global Aging - 2000, 2020 and 2050



Population Aging Is Occurring Worldwide

Source: C. Haub, 2007 World Population Data Sheet, and United Nations Population Division.


Global Aging Most Significant in Developed Countries

Source: C. Haub, 2007 World Population Data Sheet, and United Nations Population Division.


Dramatic Change in Median Age in Many Individual Countries, Creates Historic Challenges

Prepared by the Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

Source: Confederation of Indian Industry, “Snapshot: Global Demographics.“

South

Afri

caIn

dia

Mex

icoUSA

Austra

lia

China

Canad

a

Franc

eUK

Europ

e

Russia

Ger

man

y

Japa

nIta

ly

Spain

0

10

20

30

40

50

60Median Age (Years)

2000 2025 2050

Median Age Increasing in Developed Countries


World United States Japan RussianFederation

Africa0

10203040506070

Years

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

1970 22.1 28.2 29 30.6 17.6

1980 23 30.1 32.6 31.3 17.5

1990 24.5 32.8 37.4 33.2 17.5

2000 26.7 35.3 41.3 36.5 18.4

2010 29.2 36.5 44.6 37.9 19.6

2020 31.5 37.5 48.5 40 21.1

2030 34 39.1 52.1 43.8 23.1

2040 36.3 40.3 54.3 46.1 25.5

2050 38.1 41.1 54.9 45.3 28


Countries with the Longest Life Expectancies are in Developed Countries, and Shortest Life Expectancies are in Developing Countries

Years Years

Japan 82 Swaziland 33Australia 81 Botswana 34France 81 Lesotho 36Iceland 81 Zimbabwe 37Italy 81 Zambia 38Sweden 81 Malawi 40Switzerland 81 Angola 41Austria 80 Afghanistan 42Canada 80 Central African Republic 43Israel 80 Mozambique 43Malta 80Netherlands 80New Zealand 80Norway 80Singapore 80Spain 80

Longest Shortest

Source: World Population Highlights, Key Findings from PRB’s 2007 Population Data Sheet, Population Bulletin, 62:3.


Life Expectancy Has Increased Most in Less Developed Countries Since 1950

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision (2007); and C. Haub, 2007 World Population Data Sheet.


Fertility Rates Have Fallen in Every Major World Region, but Are Still Highest in Sub-Saharan Africa

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision (2007); and C. Haub, 2007 World Population Data Sheet.


Total Fertility Rates for Selected Countries are the Lowest in Developed Countries



Old Age Dependency Ratio Selected Countries, 2000, 2025, and 2050 Indicate Greater Dependency in Developed Countries


Source: Confederation of Indian Industry, “Snapshot: Global Demographics.“

0

20

40

60

80Old Age Dependency Ratio

2000 2025 2050

Aging Population and Decline in Fertility Rates will Tighten Labor Markets in Developed Countries



Global First #3:

Migration is Unstoppable…Stay and Starve Forces People to Move


Average Annual Net Number of International Migrants

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2007). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision Highlights. New York: United Nations.


Average Annual Net Number of International Migrants

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2007). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision Highlights. New York: United Nations.


Moredeveloped

regions

Lessdeveloped

regions

Africa Asia Europe LatinAmerica &Caribbean

NorthernAmerica

Oceania

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

-1,000,000

-2,000,000

-3,000,000

Net number of migrants

1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-2000

2000-10 2010-20 2020-30 2030-40 2040-50

1950-60 -3,000 3,000 -125,000 194,000 -489,000 -68,000 403,000 85,000

1960-70 556,000 -556,000 -242,000 -22,000 -31,000 -293,000 479,000 109,000

1970-80 1,088,000 -1,088,000 -289,000 -377,000 288,000 -415,000 748,000 44,000

1980-90 1,530,000 -1,530,000 -267,000 -451,000 441,000 -781,000 972,000 86,000

1990-2000 2,493,000 -2,493,000 -310,000 -1,340,000 1,051,000 -775,000 1,277,000 96,000

2000-10 2,902,000 -2,902,000 -416,000 -1,311,000 1,271,000 -1,108,000 1,453,000 111,000

2010-20 2,268,000 -2,268,000 -377,000 -1,210,000 799,000 -616,000 1,305,000 99,000

2020-30 2,269,000 -2,269,000 -395,000 -1,221,000 805,000 -590,000 1,300,000 101,000

2030-40 2,272,000 -2,272,000 -393,000 -1,222,000 808,000 -595,000 1,300,000 102,000

2040-50 2,272,000 -2,272,000 -393,000 -1,222,000 808,000 -595,000 1,300,000 102,000

Migrants to the Developed World

Immigrants as a Share of Annual Population Growth in Developed Countries



Natural Increase Still Accounts for Almost 60% of Population Growth in the US, but the Share from International Migration Has Been Increasing Percent of U.S. population growth due to natural increase and net migration, 1980-2005

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 1980, 1990, 2000, 2005


Natural Increase Still Accounts for Almost 60% of Population Growth in the U.S., but the Share from International Migration Has Been IncreasingPercent of U.S. population growth due to natural increase and net migration, 1980-2005

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1980, 1990, 2000


Countries Whose Population are Expected to Decline Between 2000 and 2050…Due to Low Fertility Rates and Poor Immigration Response



Migrants Needed to Keep Aging Dependency Ratios from Rising Above 1995 Levels (1998-1999 Estimates)



Migration is a Partial Solution to Other Demographic Challenges

The labor force in the developing world is expected to double from 1.7 billion in 1998 to 3.1 billion by 2025

The European Union will need 1.7 million high-tech workers by 2003, many coming outside of the EU

The US expects labor shortages to leave 890,000 high tech jobs unfilled of 1.6 million and increases to continue for several years

Migrants who choose to remain in host countries with aging population will help to boost government revenues

Migrants will help relieve the social and political pressures associated with large populations of unemployed and restless youth in their home countries

Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term Global Demographic Trends: Reshaping the Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001, pg 43).


Y-migration Will Impact the United States’ Need for High-Tech Workforce

The generation of United States population born from between 1978 and 1995 will leave the country to seek opportunities for affordable, quality life. GenY is the same size as the Baby Boomer population.

GenY will have enormous debt upon graduation from college ($40 to $70K in private, $20K public schools)

Demand for qualified workers will be expanding in Europe (Germany, France, and Italy) to stay at 1995 employee replacement levels

There are currently 1.3M more jobs in information technology in Europe then qualified workers

The middle class is shrinking in the US and growing internationally

Source: E. Weiner and A Brown. Future Think: How to Think Clearly in a Time of Change. New York: Prentice Hall, Inc., 2005


The US Ranking in the Global Competitiveness Index has Dropped From #1 in 2005 to #6 in 2007

Rank Country Economy Score 1 Switzerland 5.81 2 Finland 5.76 3 Sweden 5.74 4 Denmark 5.70 5 Singapore 5.63 6 United States 5.61 7 Japan 5.60 8 Germany 5.58 9 Netherlands 5.5610 United Kingdom 5.54

Source: Global Competitiveness Index, World Economic Forum, 2007


Global First #4:

Urbanization…Nearly Two-Thirds of the World’s Population Will Live in Cities


Urbanization Has Grown Dramatically Since the 1970s

Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision (2006).


By 2030, Nearly Two-Thirds of the World’s Population Will Live in Urban Areas

Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision (2006); and C. Haub, 2007 World Population Data Sheet.


Mega Cities with Populations Greater than 8 Million are Expected to Double in Size by 2015



Potential for Global Urban Crisis Grows because Growth Outpaces Ability of the Cities to Cope with Growth…Who Will Pay the Price?



Other Driving Forces…

Youth Bulge Impacts the Stability of Developing Countries


Youth Bulge Most Prevalent in the Developing Countries



Sub-Saharan Africa will Have the Greatest Youth Bulges Through 2020; Youth Bulges May Contribute to Political Instability

Source: US Bureau of Census, International Database, (2007). Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term Global Demographic Trends: Reshaping the Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001).



Environmental Factors Will Pose Threats to Health and Safety


Environmental Issues Disrupt Population Projections in Ways Not Readily Apparent

Water pollution Soil degradation and flooding Air pollution and acid rain Deforestation Urban sprawl and decreased preserved lands



The World Is Closer to Meeting the Clean-Water Access Target Than the Sanitation Target

Percent of Population with Access to Improved Water and Sanitation, 1990-2002, and 2015 MDG targets

Source: UNICEF and WHO, “Country, Regional, and Global Estimates on Water and Sanitation” (2004).


A Large Gap Exists Between Carbon Dioxide Emissions of Developed and Developing Regions

Source: C. Haub, 2007 World Population Data Sheet.



Health Disparities Increase in Developing Countries


Infectious Diseases Continue to be Leading Causes of Death Globally

Tuberculosis

Malaria

Hepatitis

HIV/AIDS

Cholera

Diptheria

Dysentery

Heart Disease

Cancer

Diabetes

Tuberculosis

HIV/AIDS

Hepatitis B and C



In Low-Income and Middle-Income Countries, 30 Percent of All Children Are Underweight



Developing Countries with the Highest and Lowest Shares of Children Under Age 5 who are Underweight

Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2007 World Population Data Sheets (2007).

Percent Percent

Afghanistan 46 Grenada <1India (under age 3) 46 Chile 1Yemen 46 Antigua and Barbuda 2Niger 44 Argentina 2Bangladesh 43 Kuwait 2East Timor 41 Samoa 2Burundi 39 Georgia 3Nepal 39 Jamaica 3Sudan 38 Mexico 3Madagascar 37 Palestinian Territory 3

Highest Lowest


Percent Overweight and Obese in School Age Children

Source:: United Nations Standing Committee on Nutrition (SCN), “Overweight and Obesity,” SCN News29 (Late 2004-Early 2005).


Long a Problem in Industrialized Countries, Obesity Is Becoming a Problem in the Developing World

Source: World Health Organization, WHO Global InfoBase Online, Country Comparable Data (http://infobase.who.int, accessed June 15, 2007).


Iron-Deficiency Anemia Remains a Problem in Many Parts of the Developing World

Source: ORC Macro, MEASURE DHS STATcompiler (www.measuredhs.com, accessed June 15, 2007).


HIV/AIDS is More Common in Less Developed Regions

Percent of population ages

15–49 with HIV/AIDS, 2005-

2006

WORLD 0.9

More developed regions 0.5

Less developed regions 1.1

Africa 4.5

North America 0.6

Latin America/Caribbean 0.5

Europe 0.5

Oceania 0.4

Asia 0.2Source: C. Haub, 2007 World Population Data Sheet


HIV Prevalence Is Highest in Southern Africa




Disasters and Conflicts are Likely to Cause More Loss of Life and Economic Disruption


Natural Disaster and Conflicts Present a Strain on Global Stability

Disasters More prevalent in the

Asian-Pacific Region Earthquakes and

flooding Hurricanes and

tornadoes Nuclear

contamination

Conflicts Rogue states Civil wars and

peacekeeping efforts Immigration and

intolerance Terrorism


Impact of Global Demographic Trends on the United States…Just a Few to Keep in Mind

The U.S. will likely… Experience all of the “Global Firsts” and their

challenges …more detailed in U.S. presentation See traditional allies face unprecedented crisis and

distraction related to aging (aging could severely reduce Japan’s economic power)

Be lonelier in facing global hotspots without older Europe


Impact of Global Demographic Trends on United States…Just a Few to Keep in Mind, continued…

The U.S. will likely… Take more responsibility for meeting humanitarian

needs which will likely increase with greater urbanization and greater populations in developing countries

Face greater uncertainty with key rivalsRussia, China facing critical demographic challenges

Confront growing need to invest in education of global workforce, just for security reasons


References…Demographics

Carl Haub, 2007 World Population Data Sheet (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 2007).

Mary M. Kent and Carl Haub, “Global Demographic Divide,” Population Bulletin 60, no. 4 (2005).

Mary M. Kent and Sandra Yin, “Controlling Infectious Diseases,” Population Bulletin 61, no. 2 (2006).

Joseph A. McFalls Jr., “Population: A Lively Introduction,” Population Bulletin 62, no. 1 (2007).

United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision (New York: United Nations, 2007).


References…AIDS

Lori S. Ashford, How HIV and AIDS Affect Populations (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 2006).


Carl Haub, “Improving Data Collection Efforts to Estimate HIV/AIDS,” accessed online at www.prb.org, on June 20, 2007.

Peter R. Lamptey, Jami L. Johnson, and Marya Khan, “The Global Challenge of HIV and AIDS,” Population Bulletin 61, no. 1 (2006).

UNAIDS, AIDS Epidemic Update: December 2006, accessed online at www.unaids.org, on June 28, 2007.

United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision (New York: United Nations, 2007).


References…Migration


Farzaneh Roudi-Fahimi and Mary M. Kent, “Challenges and Opportunities—The Population of the Middle East and North Africa,” Population Bulletin 62, no. 2 (2007).

Mary M. Kent and Carl Haub, “Global Demographic Divide,” Population Bulletin 60, no. 4 (2006).

Philip Martin and Elizabeth Midgley, “Immigration: Shaping and Reshaping America,” Population Bulletin 61, no. 4 (2006).

Philip Martin and Elizabeth Midgley, “International Migration,” Population Bulletin (forthcoming).

Dilip Ratha and William Shaw, “South-South Migration and Remittances,” accessed online at www.worldbank.org, on July 2, 2007.

UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), 2006 Global Trends (Geneva: UNHCR, 2007).

Sandra Yin, “The Plight of Internally Displaced Persons,” accessed online at www.prb.org, on July 2, 2007.

Nancy V. Yinger, “Feminization of Migration,” accessed online at www.prb.org, on July 2, 2007.


References…Urbanization


George Martine, The State of World Population 2007: Unleashing the Potential of Urban Growth (New York: United Nations, 2007).

Office of the Registrar General, India; “Census of India 2001: Table S00-017: Distribution of Households by Availability of Bathroom, Type of Latrine Within the House

and Type of Drainage Connectivity for Waste Water Outlet,” accessed online at www.censusindia.net, on July 6, 2007.

Barbara Boyle Torrey, “Urbanization: An Environmental Force to Be Reckoned With,” accessed online at www.prb.org, on June 26, 2007.

United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision (New York: United Nations, 2006).

United Nations, 2003 Demographic Yearbook (New York: United Nations, 2006).


References…Environment

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, State of the World's Forests 2007, accessed online at www.fao.org, on July 9, 2007.


Michael D. Jennings, Gross Amount of Habitat Lost by Country (Moscow, Idaho: The Nature Conservancy, 2007).

United Nations Environment Programme, GEO-2000 Global Environmental Outlook, accessed online at www.unep.org, on July 9, 2007.

World Resources Institute, CO2 Emissions per Capita, accessed online at http://earthtrends.wri.org, on July 9, 2007.


Global Profile 2007

…is available on our website:

www.csctulsa.org

Prepared for the Tulsa Area United Way Community Investments Process

By the Community Service Council of Greater TulsaJanuary, 2007

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