Comprehensive Assessment

WWWWWater and Food Securityater and Food Securityater and Food Securityater and Food Securityater and Food Security

David MoldenUpali Amarasinghe

Madhusudan BhattaraiJinxia Wang

andIan Makin

Comprehensive Assessment of Water Managementin Agriculture

Background Paper for theWorld Water Development Report

Research Paper 2

DRAFT

The authors: David Molden is a Principal Researcher and Leader of the Comprehensive Assessmentof Water Management in Agriculture, Upali Amerasinghe is a Senior Regional Researcher,Madhusudan Bhattarai and JinxiaWang are Post Doctoral Scientists and Ian Makin is RegionalDirector–Asia, all of the International WaterManagement Institute (IWMI) Colombo, Sri Lanka.

This paper is based on a background paper prepared for the World Water Assessment Program/World Water Development Report. More details of this and other background papers are availableat www.unesco.org/water/wwap/wwdreport. The authors acknowledge the valuable input from Wimvan der Hoek, Srinivas Badiger, Madar Samad, Pierick Fraval. They also thank Prof. Gordon Youngfor granting approval to publish this paper.

Molden, D.; U. Amarasinghe; M. Bhattarai; J. Wang; I. Makin. 2002. Water and foodsecurity:Background paper for the world water development report . Comprehensive AssessmentResearch Paper 2 (Draft). Colombo, Sri Lanka :Comprehensive Assessment Secretariat.

/ food security / food production / water management / water productivity / developing countries/rural development / irrigated farming / rain-fed farming / cereals / land degradation /cropproduction / groundwater / water use efficiency / water scarcity / water rights /economicaspects / policy / environmental problems / health / Latin America / Africa / China / SriLanka / Malaysia / India / Nepal / Pakistan / Bangladesh / Australia / Philippines / Thailand /Korea Republic / Turkey /

Please send inquiries and comments to: comp.assessment@cgiar.orgWebsite: www.iwmi.org/assessment

Contents

Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 1

Status and Progress of Food Security Since Rio ............................................................ 1

Water for Food Production .............................................................................................. 6

Water for Food—Major Relevant Issues ......................................................................... 9

Water for Food—Issues and Barriers .............................................................................. 17

Water for Food—Future Role .......................................................................................... 21

Conclusions ...................................................................................................................... 23

Annex ............................................................................................................................... 25

Literature Cited ................................................................................................................ 26

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Introduction

Poverty, food insecurity and degradation or depletion of natural resources are major problemsconfronting the rural poor in many countries. Water is a crucial factor for food production, stabilityof food supply and sustainable resource management. The need to focus on water and poverty tohelp alleviate problems of malnutrition and inequity in access to water is clear. Integration ofagricultural water management with environment management to curtail environmental degradation,is essential for the future of food security. The status of food security and what has been done toimprove production in addition to issues relating to water for food security since the Rio summitin 1992 are presented in this paper.

Status and Progress of Food Security Since Rio

Global and Regional Food Security

The world’s food production has more than doubled over the last four decades (annex) outpacingpopulation growth—surely a remarkable achievement. But the provision of household food securitystill remains incomplete. In spite of global abundance of food, malnutrition persists in several partsof the world.

Food Availability

The growth rate of the world’s food production, although declining by 0.4 percent in the nineties,still substantially outpaces the growth in population. This is especially true in developing countrieswhere food production increased 3.4 percent annually, exceeding the annual population growthof 1.5 percent in the 1990s. Increased food availability has helped increase per capita consumptionfurther at the global level.

However, there remains an imbalance between cereal production and exports from developedcountries and cereal deficits and imports to developing countries. The cereal production surplus(production minus consumption) in developed countries has increased from 11 percent of the totalconsumption in 1990 to 15 percent of the total consumption in 1999. Increased production indeveloping countries during the 1990s was sufficient to keep their cereal production deficit in1999 at the same level as the production deficit in 1990. The country-level cereal productiondeficits or surpluses in 1990 and 1998 are shown in figures 1 and 2.

Five of the major cereal exporting countries (USA, France, Canada, Australia and Argentina)contributed 25 percent of the world’s cereal production in 1990 and 28 percent in 1998. Theproduction surpluses of these five countries are 55 and 56 percent of their consumption and about9 and 10 percent of the world consumption in 1990 and 1998, respectively.

The cumulative change in world cereal stocks over the period 1991–1999 was positive—meaning that the world has produced enough cereals over this period to replenish the depleted stocks

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Figure 1. Cereal production surplus or deficit as a percentage of consumption in 1990.

Figure 2. Cereal production surplus or deficit as a percentage of consumption in 1998.

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over the same period.1 This compares favorably with the cumulative change in cereal stocks of the10-year period before 1990 and before 1980. During the 1990s, developed countries were able toreplenish their depleted stocks. However, in developing countries significant improvements can onlybe seen after 1990.

Nutritional Supply

The world’s average per capita per day calorie supply from cereal products, animal products andnon-cereal products has increased 0.6 percent annually over the 30-year period before 1990 (annex).The per capita daily calorie supply in developed countries declined in the 1990s. But the daily percapita calorie supply in the developing countries increased at the same rate as prior to 1990.However, there are substantial variations between regions (figure 3). People in Latin America andEast Asia consume a higher calorie supply per capita per day at present than in sub-Saharan Africaand South Asia. In South Asia the annual rate of growth of per capita calorie supply was 0.5 percentbefore 1990 and 0.3 percent after 1990s.

1In the absence of data, year-end stocks are not available for this analysis. Instead, the cumulative change in cerealstocks over a 10-year period is analyzed to explore the stability of production.

With the increase of average per capita daily calorie supply, the number of malnourished peoplehas declined by 160 million from the 1960 levels. Despite this decline, due to inequitable fooddistribution, substantial proportions of the population in countries with low average calorie supplystill receive inadequate nutrition (figure 4). Under-nourishment is still a major problem. In 1997,790 million people in developing countries and 34 million in developed countries wereundernourished (FAO 1999; FAO 2000a).

Of the 790 million undernourished people in developing countries 180 million or 23 percentlive in sub-Saharan Africa and 284 million or 36 percent live in South Asia (FAO 2000a). Though EastAsia has a much higher per capita calorie supply, it is still home to 240 million undernourished people.

Figure 3. Per capita per day calorie supply of sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, East Asia andLatin America and the Caribbean.

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When compared to the total population of these regions, the number of undernourished presentlyin sub-Saharan Africa is at 33 percent. This is much higher than South Asia at 23 percent andEast Asia at 13 percent. Unlike in other regions, the number of undernourished people in sub-SaharanAfrica has in fact increased from 162 million in 1990/1992 to 180 million in 1996/1999. Highpopulation growth combined with limited opportunities for economic growth and no significantadvancement in agricultural technology are main stumbling blocks for reducing undernourishmentin sub-Saharan Africa (FAO 1996a).

Since the Rio summit all global indicators show continuous progress in meeting food security.However, in spite of the global progress shown, food insecurity and malnutrition problems remainat regional levels due to uneven distribution of food production and inadequate social welfarepriorities.

National Food Security

Some nations stipulate national self-sufficiency goals. For example, target values for self-sufficiencyin rice production are 95 percent in China (box 1), 90 percent in Sri Lanka, 65 percent in Indonesiaand 60 percent in Malaysia. India, Nepal and Pakistan are almost 100 percent self-sufficient inmajor food grains. But self-sufficiency does not automatically ensure food security for all. Forexample, in India and China, where figures show self-sufficiency in food, malnutrition remains awidespread problem. Bangladesh is almost self-sufficient in food but more than half the populationis food-deficient.

Food-deficits in rural areas are often due to an inability to deliver or produce food where it isneeded most. Many investment decisions that led to the rapid expansion of irrigation and otherinfrastructure development programs from the 60s to the 70s in Asia were influenced by increasesin food grain prices at that time. Food grain prices have fallen in recent times (figure 5) andinvestments in large-scale infrastructure have been reduced.

Figure 4. Distribution of undernourished people in the developing world.

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Box 1. China case study—national food security.

The Chinese government considers maintaining a comparatively high level of food self-sufficiency (above 95 percent) as well as stability of food supply and consumer’s prices asa matter concerning national security and stability (Huang, 1999). Food security has been,and will continue to be, the central goal of China’s agricultural policy.

However, China’s future food security is a subject of growing concern. Rapidindustrialization and urbanization is increasing competition for land and water resources.The impacts of trade liberalization on China’s domestic agriculture, employing severalhundreds of million small farmers, are another growing concern for policymakers. Rapideconomic growth has continued an uneven pattern of development across regions and amongincome groups. The income gap across regions and between the rural and urban sectors hasnot been narrowed.

Limited options for increasing food supplies intensifies the challenge of meetingChina’s food security targets. Water limits growth in cereal production especially in thenorth China plains, and many have pointed out problems of groundwater overdraft thatdominates north China. Lester Brown (1995) predicted major shortcomings in future riceproduction, which would have direct consequences to many Chinese people, nationalinterests, and the global food production system. Others have presented a more optimisticpicture (IWMI 2000; IFPRI 2000), but this is an area to watch in the water-food securitypicture.

Figure 5. Changes in world prices of wheat, rice and maize.

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Water for Food Production

Irrigated and Rain-fed Production

In 1995, estimates indicated that 31 percent of the world’s total cereal harvested area was irrigated,and contributed 42 percent of the world’s total production (IWMI 2000). In developing countries,40 percent of the cereal harvested area is irrigated and contributes 56 percent of the total cerealproduction. About half of the cereal area in South Asia and the Near East is irrigated and contributes75 percent of the region’s total cereal production. In East Asia, 58 percent of the total area isirrigated and contributes 65 percent of the total cereal production in the region.

Rain-fed agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa, Central Asia, Eastern Europe and Australia is about95 percent of the total cereal area and contributes about 90 percent of the total cereal productionin these regions. The rain-fed area in North America is 70 percent of the total cereal area andcontributes about 60 percent of the total cereal production. In Europe 80 percent of the cerealharvested area is rain-fed. The irrigated cereal yield is generally higher than rain-fed cereal yield,except in three countries—the United Kingdom, France and Germany—where significant rain-fedcereal areas have much higher yields than even the irrigated yields in other countries. Evenlydistributed rainfall thoughout the year is a contributing factor to this high yield.

Changing Relationships between Water and Food

The world’s total crop and cereal area stabilized during the mid-1980s, and then began decliningin the 1990s. However, irrigated areas have continued to increase largely by extending irrigationto previously rain-fed lands. Technological advancements and better management have helpedincrease cropping intensity in both old and new irrigated lands, offsetting the decline in crop andcereal area resulting from land degradation and urbanization (Pingali et al., 1997). Contributionfrom irrigation to crop production through increases in cropping intensity, in both old and newlyirrigated land, is expected to be considerable in the future—it is expected to account for half of theincrease in harvested cropland (FAO 2000a).

Increases in irrigated areas during the 1990s occurred mostly in developing countries wheremore than half the net irrigated area development was in China and India (table 1 and annex).The combined net irrigated area of China and India has increased by 1.8 percent annually from1960—1990 and 1.4 percent annually in the 1990s (figure 6). In Latin America and the Caribbean,growth rates of net irrigated area before and after 1990 are 2.4 and 1.1 percent, respectively. Netirrigated area growth in sub-Saharan Africa was slower in the 1990s compared to the period before1990. The annual growth rate of net irrigated area in sub-Saharan Africa is 2.1 percent before1990 and only 0.7 percent in the nineties.

Table 1. Growth in net irrigated area.

Net irrigated areaWorld Developed countries Developing countries

Year Total Annual growth Total Annual growth Total Annual growthM ha % M ha % M ha %

1961 140 - 38 - 102 -1990 242 1.9 65 1.9 177 1.91997 266 0.9 66 0.1 200 1.2

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Private investments made in groundwater development have contributed to most of the growthin net irrigated area in India and China in the recent past. More than two-thirds of the total cerealproduction in India is from irrigation (IWMI 2001) and about two-thirds of that is from tubewellirrigation. In China, tubewell irrigated areas have increased nearly 26 percent of the actual irrigatedarea between 1985 to 1995 (FAO 2000b). Estimates show that two-thirds of the total cerealproduction in China is from irrigation and a substantial proportion of this is supported by wellirrigation.

With increased groundwater development there is growing concern that declining groundwatertables and increased salinity in irrigated areas will affect future expansion of food productionpossibilities. For example, a large proportion (60 to 70 percent) of the total cereal production inIndia is in states which are operating at or above the full potential level for groundwater extraction.Much of the area in China’s northern plains breadbasket is threatened by groundwater depletion.These are indications that future food security in India and China will depend primarily on howtheir surface water and groundwater irrigation is managed. A similar picture is emerging in Pakistan.

Water Audit

Production of one kilogram of grain requires about one cubic meter (m3) crop evapotranspiration2

as a rule of thumb. Depending on how livestock is grown,3 one kilogram of meat can requiremuch more water to produce—determined by how much feed is given. In California, for example,about 13.5 m3 of water is used to produce one kilogram of beef. To produce a typical diet of a

Figure 6. Net irrigated area of China, India, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America and theCaribbean.

Source: FAOSTAT 2001.

2There is a wide range in the amount of kg/m3 of ET, from about 0.5 to 1.5, reflecting differences in water and landmanagement practices, crop variety and climate.

3There will be large differences between animals who get most of their nutrition from grazing and those depending on feed.

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resident in USA requires about 5-6 m3 water per day in the form of evapotranspiration (Renaultand Wallender 2000; FAO 2000a). On the other hand, to produce a vegetarian diet withapproximately the same nutritional value requires only 2.6 m3 of water per day. Compared to the 2to 5 liters of water we need to drink daily, and 20 to 50 liters needed for bathing, the 2000 to 5000liters of water to produce food dominates the water for human requirements equation.

Present Water Use

At present, the agriculture sector is by far the biggest water user, accounting for almost 80 percentof total withdrawals from water sources (figure 7). However, the annual growth in water withdrawalis lower in the agricultural sector than in the other sectors. For example, the annual growth rateof water withdrawals to agriculture in the 1990s is only 0.3 percent while that in the domesticand industrial sectors it is 1.9 and 1.1 percent, respectively. A growing trend is a shift in water usefrom agriculture to other sectors that are expanding and growing at a faster pace.

Figure 7: Worldwide water withdrawals for different sectors.

Source: Shiklomanov 1997

Future irrigation requirements

How much water do we need for agriculture? Over the last 20 years, there have been tremendousadvances in the estimation of crop water requirements at a field scale (Allen et al.1998). However,as we move up the scale from field to regional, from regional to national and from national toglobal levels, the degree of uncertainty also grows. Our estimates of irrigated area, while theyhave recently improved (Doll 1999) are still uncertain. Groundwater has played a major role infood production, but sustainability of this is already questioned. Advances in biotechnology mayplay a major role in increasing crop productivity, but the potential remains uncertain at present. Itis also well accepted that irrigation has contributed in the past in improving crop productivity, butthe exact extent of this is debated. The more food that can be produced on primarily rain-fed areaslessens the need for additional irrigation. Because of these uncertainties, estimates of the additional

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water requirements for food and fiber production in 2005 vary widely: 4 percent (Alcamo et al.2000), 11 percent (Rosgrant and Ringler 2000), 12 percent (FAO 2000a), 17 percent (IWMI 2000)and 22 percent (Shiklomanov 2000). Moreover, the global withdrawals of water for the 1990s wereactually only half of what was projected earlier (Cosgrove and Rijsberman 2000). This illustratesthe complexities and inherent problems associated with global projections of water withdrawals.

Water for Food–Major Issues

Access to Water

Food security requires access to means of food production or enough income to purchase food.Food security can be maintained when sufficient stable supplies of food are readily accessible tovulnerable sections of the population. Sen (1981), in one of the best known works on Poverty,Poverty and famines: An essay on entitlement and deprivation, has challenged the common viewthat a shortage of food is naturally the most important explanation for famine arguing that thelack of “entitlement ” is often a more critical factor for famine and food insecurity. Access towater can be a constraint for poor people to produce food in many situations. Social exclusionissues such as denial of access to water and food on the basis of gender or ethnicity, coupledwith conflicts and violence, further deteriorate the food security level (Chambers 1988).Geographically isolated mountain people, or people living in arid and rugged terrain, who are cutoff from knowledge of more advanced technologies often pay much higher prices for basic foodneeds and are vulnerable to food insecurity, despite relatively easy access to water resources.

The reasons behind lack of access to water are many, but they can be broadly grouped intothree situations that relate to water availability.

The first is due to physical water scarcity—an area has little or no additional water suppliesto meet additional uses (figure 8). In this case it is difficult for poor people to tap into existingsupplies, and the poor are often the most vulnerable group when water is reallocated fromagriculture to higher valued uses (domestic and industrial) as they are most likely to lose access.Arid areas in north Africa and the north China plains fall into this scarcity category. Note thatsome of the major river basins in the world such as Nile river, Jordan river basin, and Yellowriver basin in China have already reached or are in the fringes of physical limit of usable resources.

The second case is one where development efforts have led to exploitation of water resources,but institutions and management structures cannot allocate and distribute water in an equitablemanner. Pockets of water scarcity exist because of inadequate rights or infrastructure. For example,a head-tail problem in irrigation is a chronic problem in many large-scale irrigation systems,particularly in Asia, leaving some areas short of water.

In the third situation there is a lack of financial or human resources to tap available resources,a situation that exists in much of the developing countries, called economic scarcity. High cost ofwater resources development against lower-than-expected returns restricts water and irrigationinfrastructure development in sub-Saharan Africa. Compared to other parts of the world, there isa lack of access to water in sub-Saharan Africa due to the lack of small or large-scale waterinfrastructure to deliver water to where it is needed. For example, the irrigated area in Africa (southof the Sahara) has increased only at an annual rate of 0.7 percent while the irrigated area indeveloping countries generally increased at a rate of 1.5 percent annually in the 1990s.

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Water Quality Deterioration

With rising demands for water, concerns about water quality have increased rapidly. Pollutant loadshave increased enormously, while at the same time the volume of water available for dilution isdecreasing. Water quality poses a serious threat to the sustainability and the safety of food producedby intensive farming systems on which global food security has become increasingly dependent.Security and stability in food supplies in this century will be closely linked to success in waterquality control.

Poor drainage and irrigation practices have led to waterlogging and salinization of nearly 10percent of the world’s irrigated lands (FAO 1996b), thereby reducing productivity. Smedema (2000)reported that mobilization of resident salts is a widely occurring phenomenon in irrigated riverbasins in arid regions.

Degradation of dry lands is an urgent global problem, placing nearly one billion people in110 countries at risk, mainly in developing regions. In highly industrialized regions, amelioratingsoil contamination and combating acidification are priorities. This trend has also been observedrecently in some of the developing countries where higher fertilizer and herbicide applicationsare used to increase the productivity with inadequate measures to control their loss into naturalsystems. Table 2 presents regional trends and concerns regarding various environmental issues asreported by UNEP (1997).

Figure 8. IWMI indicator of water scarcity.

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Table 2. Relative importance and trends of environmental issues by region.

*Trends of environmental issues in different regionsIssues Africa Asia-former Europe and Latin America North West

Pacific USSR and Caribbean America Asia

LandDegradation I I RS I D I

Freshwaterscarcity, pollution I I RS I RS I

Urban andindustrialcontamination RS I RS I RS I

*Trend: I = Increasing; RS= Relatively stable; D= DecreasingSource: UNEP 1997

Increasing Competition between Different Sectors

Agriculture accounts for about 90 percent of total water withdrawals in Asia. The per capitawithdrawal for agriculture in 1995 was 500 m3, with domestic and industrial sectors at 21 m3 and24 m3 per capita, respectively. Global time series data on increasing competition for waterwithdrawals are not available, but it is well recognized that as income increases, water competitionfrom the domestic and industrial sectors increases as well (figure 9). One way of meeting increasingdemand in other sectors is to increase recycling. Most of the water withdrawn for domestic andindustrial uses are non consumptive, and can be reused downstream. However, water quality concernscan restrict the amount of reuse that is possible.

Figure 9. Agricultural and other water withdrawals, Zhanghe irrigation system, China.

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Water for Rain-fed Agriculture

Rain-fed agriculture is often ignored in the water and food security puzzle. However, the contributionis substantial; for example, rain-fed agriculture contributes about 60 percent of cereal productionand to about 70 percent of the global cereal area. Consequently, a one-percent increase in rain-fedcereal production would have one and half times the effect than a similar increase in irrigated cerealproductivity. This is an attractive proposition especially given that most farmers who would benefitfrom such an increase would be the rural poor and those with marginal sized farms.

Globally, about 14 percent of the land surface is used by agriculture and is primarily rain-fed.IWMI estimates that in a median rainfall year, evapotranspiration is on the order of 16 percent oftotal rainfall on land surfaces, compared to 6 percent of total evapotranspiration by irrigated lands.From this perspective, rain-fed agriculture is a significant consumer of water—water that wouldhave otherwise contributed to other ecosystems, or contributed to river runoff. Rain-fed agricultureis therefore clearly a competitor for scarce land and water resources.

Rain-fed agriculture has important global water and food security relevance for the followingreasons. First, many food insecure people in rural areas are dependent on rain-fed agriculture.Second, most of the existing rain-fed land has low productivity and if more could be produced,there would be less need for expansion of the irrigated area . Third, rain-fed agriculture consumesa significant amount of water resources.

An important conceptual advance has been the introduction of “green and blue water”, wheregreen water refers to evaporation that returns directly to the atmosphere, while “blue water” refersto river runoff (Falkenmark 1995). Green water supports rainfed agriculture, while diversions ofblue water support irrigated agriculture. The argument is that too much focus has been given toblue water and yet there remains an important need to give due consideration to the potential tobetter harness green water to meet food security needs.

The inter-annual and inter-seasonal variability and quantity of rainfall across large areas ofAfrica and South Asia are not conducive to stable agriculture. Many food insecure people live inthese areas, having neither the income to purchase food, nor the assurance of an adequate cropyield from year to year. The development of drought resistant crop varieties, alternate tillage practicesto conserve water, and low-cost technologies such as treadle pumps (Shah 2000) or water harvestingstructures that provide access to water for the poor may offer some solutions. However, cost andbenefit of low cost technologies and management approaches compared to large conventional/canalirrigation systems are not documented at this time.

Water for Environment

Food production is an important function of many natural ecosystems. For example, fisheries inwetlands and coastal estuaries, and recession agriculture on natural flood plains have been importantfactors in food security for many people. Modern water control facilities have often neglectedthese considerations in their design, impairing ecosystems ability to provide sources and foodsecurity strategies for many people.

Sound ecosystems sustain the land and water base on which agriculture is supported. Soilnutrient depletion, salinity buildup, and saline water intrusion all threaten the land and waterresource base. Land and water degradation are serious constraints to food security for many people.Food security of future generations will rely on how well a supportive environment is maintained.

Water tends to get allocated to higher valued city and industrial uses, leaving lower valued (orun-valued) agricultural and environmental uses as residual uses of water. While there remain sharp

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conflicts between agriculture and urban uses, these are localized, with agriculture usually the loser.Many future conflicts may be around uses of water for agriculture and for the environment.

Water for Fiber

Fiber crops consume water and contribute to competition and scarcity. However, they are alsoimportant in the food security equation. Fiber crops can provide relatively high income and therebycontribute to maintaining food security in a region. But there has been little change in areas ofcotton and other primary fiber crops in Asia and Africa over the last 35 years (figure 10). Also,the yields of fiber crops in both regions have changed little when compared to the increases ingrain yield. It is likely that a green revolution for fiber crops could lead to significant increases inyields and income and thus food security.

Figure10. Primary fiber cropped area in Asia and Africa from 1961 to 1996.

Water for Aquaculture

Aquaculture has tremendous potential for greater contributions toward meeting the nutritionalrequirements of people. It also supplements high quality food indirectly for other economic endssuch as livestock and aquaculture feeds, crop fertilizers, food and non-food additives, bases forproduction of industrial products and biotechnology. FAO (2000b) estimates that 5 percent of theworld population, about 300 million people, obtained more than 50 percent of their animal proteinfrom fish. Aquaculture, according to FAO estimates, contributes to 25 percent of the total fishproduction in 1998, up from 13 percent in 1990.

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Aquatic food resources (sea and inland fisheries combined) were worth more than US$ 70 billionin 1993, producing about 102 million metric tons of food globally. About 50 million people aredirectly involved in production, catching, processing and marketing of fish. The fisheries industryalso provides employment for about 150 million people indirectly (Williams 1996).

Water scarcity and conflicts between water for crop based agriculture and water for fish areemerging. Hydraulic infrastructure alters the flow of watercourses and can have a major impacton fishery ecology. On the positive side, there are also examples of co-management of water forcrops and fish, where storage mainly built for crops has improved fisheries.

Trade Agreements—The Bigger Picture

Many argue that free trade in agricultural commodities can contribute greatly to the alleviation offood insecurity and also resolve water scarcity problems. Trade provides adequate incentives torelocate the production of agricultural commodities based on each region’s comparative advantage.However, food trade provides food security only if the importing country can afford to buy thefood by earning sufficient foreign currency from trading in other sectors.

Virtual water is a concept that emerged over the last decade, and is based on the observationthat it takes approximately 1 m3 of water to produce 1 kg of grain. Thus, importing a ton of grainreplaces the need for agriculture to consume 1,000 m3 of water, hence the concept of virtual water.For example, more water (embedded in imported grains and agricultural commodities) flows intothe Middle East each year as virtual water than the mean annual flow of the river Nile to Egypt(Allan 1997). If physically water scarce regions can import more food, they have less need forlocal water allocations to agriculture, and water can be made available to meet other environmental,urban or industrial needs.

However, the risk and uncertainty associated with global trade agreements are majorbottlenecks to the effectively implementation of such “virtual water” trading at large scale. Recentfailures to reach global trade agreements and increasing controversies over globalization and worldtrade as evidenced by the Seattle meetings of the World Trade Organization, and the differencesbetween USA and EU over agricultural subsidies are sufficient examples to show the uncertaintiesand complications of world trade agreements. Likewise, differences between developed anddeveloping countries over labor standards and environmental factors are complex issues affectingglobal trade. Whether the less developed nations can depend entirely on food trade to meet nationalfood security requirements is an open question. Certainly, a positive answer to this is far off due tochanging world geo politics and instability in the balance of power.

Water Rights Based Allocation Mechanisms

Water rights are widely regarded as an important mechanism in the process of allocating water forproductive and equitable use of resources. Rights that disassociate water resources from land canfacilitate the development of market transactions and the efficient utilization of resources by allowingtransfer of water resources from lower-value uses to higher-value ones. There has been a greatdeal of effort in conceptualizing and studying traditional rights, and trying to implement water rightsand more objective allocation procedures.

In Western countries such as the USA, Australia, Chile and France, where water rights arewell established, water markets are developing. In most other parts of the world, progress inimplementing water rights and water allocation mechanisms has been slow. Within the irrigation

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sector, active systems of water rights and allocation exist both within individual systems and, lessfrequently, between systems. But within a basin there are rarely well-defined rights for differentsectors and it is much more common for administrative procedures, often highly influenced bypolitical interests, to dominate water allocation decisions.

The need for clearly defined water rights is even more urgent with the growing scarcity ofwater and the intense intersectoral competition for water. Research shows that it is the poor andother disadvantaged groups in the community who are most adversely affected by the absence ofwater rights. South Africa has recently reformed water policies and water rights issues includingexplicit rights to water for the poor. Whilst this initiative is still in the early days of implementationit may, perhaps, form a guide to what may be required elsewhere.

Irrigation Water Management

Irrigation Management Transfer (IMT)

During the last three decades or so, institutional reforms in the irrigation sector have been a centralstrategy in most countries that have a substantial irrigation sector. The reforms were largely focusedon surface irrigation systems established by governments and managed by public sector agencies.A common objective of the early efforts at reform was to reduce the role of state agencies in irrigationmanagement and promote local management of irrigation systems with a strong emphasis on farmerparticipation. The establishment of water user associations (WUAs) and transfer of responsibilityfor operation and maintenance of irrigation systems to the farmers was a key component of theprograms.

After two decades of implementation the impacts of IMT are mixed. IMT is considered a successin countries such as Mexico, Colombia, China and Turkey. However, in many other countries positiveimpacts are less evident. Recent studies suggest that, in many cases, governments have concentratedtheir efforts on the transfer process and have been lax about enacting complementary policies andappropriate institutional adjustments that would provide the right incentives for the post-transfermanagement entities to function effectively.

There is now clear evidence that countries are facing new and more complex issues with regardto the water sector, such as rising intersectoral competition for water, environmental concerns,greater conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater and issues of watershed management.These have prompted many developing countries to initiate broader and deeper institutional reformsin their water sector that will facilitate user participation in the integrated management of waterresources.

Crop Diversification

Crop diversification can reduce food insecurity by decreasing uncertainty associated with cropfailures and plummeting world prices in monoculture food, mostly cereals. For example, Thailandhas transferred large areas of irrigated land out of rice to fruits and vegetables. Similar trends arealso evident across Asia. Overall in Asia, cereal, pulses and other crops accounted for 66, 8 and26 percent, respectively, of the total cropped area in 1990. However, by 1997 this had changed to56, 7 and 37 percent, respectively (FAO 2001). Despite the reduction in cereal areas the per capitafood grain production in Asia increased due to yield improvements in these crops.

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A lack of effective water control structures and management capacity are major constraints tocrop diversification in farming systems in monsoon Asia. The existing systems are designed forthe less rigorous, and more uniform, water management demands of paddy cultivation. However,the rapid spread of low cost pump technologies is supporting an expansion of privately financedcrop diversification to higher valued crops. Lack of market incentives and relative scarcity of inputs(labor) are economic and policy factors that influence farmers’ crop choices, and restictdiversification from rice farming.

Waste Water for Irrigation

Reuse of wastewater for irrigation is a rapidly growing practice worldwide. Several reasons forthis expansion are linked to fresh water scarcity and competition among fresh water demands.However, the temporal reliability of wastewater flows, spatial proximity to urban markets foragriculture produce and social limitations on access to “clean” water also drive this expansion.Initial estimates indicate that, though marginal in global terms, more than 20 M ha in 50 countriesare irrigated with raw or partially diluted wastewater. In addition to the direct benefits to farmersof wastewater irrigation, there are potential benefits to farm land by applying domestic waste water,including increasing organic matter and fertility. This can also limit water quality impairment fordownstream users.

Nevertheless the risks are considerable, including concerns associated with pathogencontamination of surface water and groundwater, exposure of irrigation workers and foodconsumers to bacterial, amoebic, viral and nematode parasites and organic, chemical, and heavymetals contaminants. Low cost treatment methods (primary and, as appropriate, secondary level)designed specifically for (re) use are available, and must be implemented to achieve broad-basedcoverage, rather than expecting that all water and wastewater discharges will be treated to thehigh levels set by national and international standards.

Gender and Water Management

The Dublin principles recognize the vital role of women in the participatory processes of watermanagement. The different roles of women and men in water management, food production,marketing and household consumption influence food security and livelihoods. Policies andinterventions have been poor in the consideration of these differing roles. The growing and widelyrecognized trend of “feminization of agriculture” underscores the importance of gender. Culturaland social barriers place women in a position of unpaid labor with limited roles in managementdecisions. Women must be recognized within and outside of their societies as potential food producerscontributing to the stability of food supplies. However, support systems do not adequately addressthe needs of poor women farmers, leaving a significant gap between good intentions and actions.

A major reason for this gap is a lack of understanding of gender-water-food security issues(Merrey and Baviskar 1998). Part of the difficulty lies in the tremendous global variation in thegendered organization of water management. It is helpful to classify farming systems into femalemanaged, male managed and mixed depending on who is primarily taking decisions in agriculture(Van Koppen 2001). Female managed farming systems for example are common in much of sub-Saharan Africa. With this initial recognition, much can be done to design better interventions and

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support systems. Van Koppen (2001) concludes that “Gender always needs to be taken intoconsideration. The challenge for the coming decades is to answer the question How?”

Water for Food—Issues and Barriers

Agricultural Subsidies

Despite the Uruguay round table negotiation and WTO’s recent agenda on free and fair trade,agriculture subsidy is still one of the major controversial issues in the smooth operation of worldfree trade on agricultural commodities. Agricultural subsidies do play a major role in developingcountry production systems, but are hidden in the developed countries production systems, takingthe form of direct payments, planting restrictions, tax incentives, welfare payments and domesticprice support systems. Agricultural subsidies in the developed countries are a barrier on importingagricultural commodities and other products from developing countries. It is reported that 1.1percent of GDP in the EU as a whole and 2.3 percent of GDP in Switzerland in 1996 were spenton agricultural subsidies and transfer. The common agricultural policy (CAP) of the EU is a long-standing controversial issue, since its inception over forty years ago and still consumes about halfof the total annual EU budget. A recent study has shown that the CAP of the EU costs the worldeconomy around US$ 75 billion per year, of which more than a third of the total costs are estimatedto fall on countries outside of the EU (Brussels Bulletin, No. 2, September 2000). However, theworld is moving towards free trade and is in the process of reducing trade restrictions. The impactof this move on agriculture subsidies has shown positive effects, particularly in the 1990s.

Policy Impediments

Sectoral interests often dominate the policies that influence food security issues. For example,managers in the agriculture and fisheries sectors may not be aware of the policies in the othersectors even though both are water dependent and impact food security and livelihoods. Waterrights to assure access and allocation policies are often lacking. Even if sound policies exist,enforcement of these policies remains a problem. A differential application of policies by differentplayers impedes effective use of water for crops and inland fisheries. Quality of institutions andoverall governance in the agriculture sector, including irrigation, has a significant role inimplementing and enforcing the policy agendas already in place.

Strategy Shortcomings

Many development strategies have been impeded by a lack of agreement on how to achieve thegoal of food and environmental security. Although attention has been given to improving irrigationand agricultural water management, a lack of integration with other sectors, and between publicand private water development, has reduced the impact of investments. With increasing recognitionof the potential issues, better water management is receiving increased interest, as evidenced bythe development and implementation of the concepts of integrated water management in river basins.

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Institutional Challenges

There is a pervasive weakness in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa in performing irrigationmanagement tasks, including mobilization of resources for operation and maintenance. These areparticularly prevalent on large-scale irrigation systems where there was little user participation duringplanning and construction phases. With increasing competition, institutions are often inadequatelyequipped to meet the challenges of equitable and sustainable water allocation. Moreover, the paceof institutional changes in the irrigation sector in the 1980s and 1990s was much faster than in theearlier decades, perhaps exceeding the capacity of the institutions to absorb these changes .

Maintaining national food security or water security is considered a public good (collectiveaction). Therefore, the means of security is always linked with the political process. During the1990s, due to worldwide adoption of outward oriented policies to prepare for globalization, incentiveshave been provided to reform institutions to face the challenge of providing equitable access tofood and water to all members of society. Significant and unprecedented institutional changes haveoccurred in recent years in relation to this.

Financial and Other Resource Constraints

It is commonly observed that there is underfunding of operation and maintenance of irrigationfacilities in both public and private sectors. Public and international funding for infrastructureand support services have declined in developing countries. Inadequate support services, coupledwith insufficient public and private sector financing, remain major constraints for most developingcountries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Some of the private financing for agricultural waterin developing countries comes from investment in groundwater by poor farmers (Shah 2000).Financial capability for new or rehabilitation of existing infrasturcture and the management capacityto ensure sustainability of the system is lacking.

Investment in large irrigation projects increased during the 1970s but then fell by more than50 percent during the 1980s (Rosegrant and Ringler 1999). Investment declined further in the 1990s.It is argued that the massive investment in irrigation during the 1970s expanded both cropped areaand cropping intensity and enabled the realization of the potential of the green revolutiontechnologies. The resulting increase in food production led to the lowering of food prices.Development costs for new irrigation lands have increased markedly in recent years, for example,costs have increased by more than 50 percent in the Philippines, 40 percent in Thailand and havenearly tripled in Sri Lanka. In the face of declining cereal prices it is harder to justify new irrigationdevelopment based on financial costs and benefits (Rosegrant 1997). In Africa institutional andtechnical constraints make irrigation development more costly than in Asia, varying by about US$8000 /ha (Rosegrant 1997; FAO 1992).

Most of the water-related infrastructure projects over the past 40 to 50 years were financedby the government sector. Recently, there has been an increase in private sector financing of large-scale water sector infrastructures. About 15 percent of the infrastructure financing in developingcountries is through private finances, and this is a growing trend (Briscoe 1999). Full cost recoveryand institutional changes in the private sector will further enhance this trend. However, a distinctionneeds to be drawn between ‘payment for water services’ and ‘payment for water resources’, asthis latter concept is culturally, politically and practically difficult to implement in many of thelarger irrigating nations. Today, the annual cost of water services for developing countries is aboutUS$ 70–80 billion per year, but to achieve water security about US$ 100 billion additionalinvestment per year may be required (GWP 2000).

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Technology Options

Pro-poor Technologies

There has been a recent increase in the development and application of affordable technologiesto provide access to water for the poor, including low cost drip systems (in terms of low capitalinvestment cost), water harvesting techniques, and treadle pumps (Shah 2001; Sally et al. 2001).Additionally, small-scale water harvesting methods such as check dams and rainwater collectionare gaining popularity in many farm communities in Asia. There have been technological advancesin drip and sprinkler irrigation, and their use is expanding, but the use of these technologies forcultivation of staple grains is limited.

Maintenance and Modernization

Key reasons for under-performance of irrigation include poor management as mentioned above,but also includes deteriorating infrastructure and inadequate technology to meet changing needs.Poor maintenance, often due to inadequate institutions, leads to problems in water delivery. Manyirrigation systems have been stuck in a cycle of construction, deterioration, and then rehabilitation.Better maintenance practices are required for sustainable operations and to break this cycle.

Modernization

Many irrigation systems were designed for rice or food grains, or as protection against droughtor famine. Increasing competition, more user-based management, and a need for crop diversificationhave made existing designs less suited for present needs. Unfortunately, many poorly designed,inoperable systems exist, dating from the rapid irrigation expansion in the 1960s and 70s.Modernization of infrastructure and management will be required for producing more food and/orfiber with less water on many irrigation systems.

Crop Breeding

Advances in crop breeding have boosted crop water productivity more than any other intervention.This has been achieved by increasing crop yields, as well as shortening the growth period and thuswater requirements. Breeding for drought resistance in rainfed and supplemental irrigation holdspromise for many food insecure communities. Additionally, breeding for tolerance to low qualitywaters can alleviate problems resulting from the use of more marginal water resources.

Integrated Pest Management

Integrated pest management (IPM) aims at changing pest control practices, so that the use ofchemical pesticides is minimized or eliminated. There is evidence of important benefits of IPMcompared with conventional high input pest control methods, including savings for farmers (lessinvestment in farming inputs with same output), savings for governments (from pesticide importsand reduced subsidies), conservation of natural enemy species and biodiversity, reduced health risks

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to farmers and consumers and improvement of water and soil quality. There have been successstories especially in Asia, but the pace of implementation is still slow, and in many countriesagricultural extension services are inadequate to reach all farmers. In some countries (or areas withina country), the capital and technical expertise needed to adopt IPM practices are beyond the reachof the average cultivator.

Diseases, Health Hazards and Environmental Problems due to Irrigation Water

The best-documented impact of large dams, small reservoirs and irrigation systems has been thenegative health impact from the introduction or spread of Schistosomiasis (Bilharzia). In sub-Saharan Africa, recent water resource development projects have led to the spread of the diseaseto previously low or non-endemic areas. Over 200 million people are estimated to be infected, ofwhich more than 80 percent are in sub-Saharan Africa.

The most significant tropical disease is malaria with 500 million cases per year, and 1 milliondeaths—the majority is reported from sub-Saharan Africa. Irrigation systems provide breedinggrounds for mosquitoes, but several empirical studies have shown the counter-intuitive result ofno malaria increase following the introduction of irrigation. This may possibly be the result ofimproved socio-economic status of people in irrigated areas or better management of water bodiesin irrigated regions compared to nearby rain-fed areas (IWMI’s ongoing study in Sri Lanka).

Generally, it is thought that large-scale agricultural development leads to the destruction ofbiodiversity. Drying up of wetlands brought about by irrigation is a frequently cited problem aswell as adoption of wide scale monoculutre practices in agriculture (Lemly et al. 2000). However,scientific assessments of ecological disruption resulting from agricultural development are generallypost hoc, with the predevelopment status unknown or only very superficially examined in the courseof environmental impact assessments.

There is a need to note one of the less documented but highly positive impacts brought aboutby irrigation development, which is access to water for household uses. Improved availability ofwater for domestic hygiene and sanitation is one of the best methods for reducing morbidity andmortality due to diarrhea diseases given in detail in box 2. In general, there remains a huge gapin knowledge about the impacts of irrigation development on health and environment.

Water for Food—Future Role

Objectives and Targets

In 1996, the Food Summit set a target of halving the prevalence of undernourished people by 2015,i.e., no more than 400 million undernourished people by 2015. However, a significant shortfall inprogress toward this target was noticed at the end of first five years (FAO 2000a). Therefore it isevident that the target of halving the number of undernourished people by 2015 is unlikely to beachieved without changes to policy and strategies. Moreover, at another UN millennium summiton “water scarcity” a goal was set to “reduce by half the proportion of people who are unable toreach, or afford safe drinking water by 2015.” Therefore, the future planning on “water for food”needs to reconcile social need and global commitments on “water scarcity.”

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In the recently concluded Second World Water Forum, the framework for action (WWC 2000)set a target to increase water productivity for food production from rain-fed and irrigated farmingby 30 percent by the year 2015.

Water Productivity

Yield expressed in terms of production per unit of land has been the traditional measure ofproductivity in agriculture. But as water is becoming a scarce resource, production per unit ofwater has emerged as an important concept. The United Nations Secretary General, Kofi Anan,reflected this in his statement to the Millenium Conference in October 2000: “We need a BlueRevolution in agriculture that focuses on increasing productivity per unit of water—‘more cropper drop’.”

By improving the productivity of water in rain-fed and irrigated agriculture, there is less needto expand irrigated areas. For a farmer with a scarce supply, strategies to increase the productivityof water may lead to more income and better nutrition. Means to increase the productivity of waterinclude: higher yields using the same amount of water through improved varieties, improved soiland fertility management practices; practices that save water that can be transferred to additionaluses (see Seckler 1996, Molden 1997 and Sakthivadivel et al. 1999 for discussions on real watersavings) through reduction in non-productive evaporation or flows to sinks in excess of environmentalrequirements; and reallocation of water from lower to higher valued uses. In a broad sense, increasingwater productivity in agriculture can be taken as obtaining more benefit, or achieving more welfarefor every drop of water consumed.

We do not have good data on global trends of water productivity in agriculture. However, wehave a recent image (figure 11) that shows a high degree of variation in water productivity in irrigatedagriculture, indicating tremendous scope for improvement. Indeed, an index using the statistics

Box 2. Health benefits of irrigation water.

In arid and semi-arid countries there are often large areas where groundwater is brackishand people have to obtain water from irrigation canals for all uses, including domestic uses.In studies by the International Water Management Institute in Pakistan, risk factors fordiarrhoea were: absence of a water connection and water storage facility, lack of a toilet,low standard of hygiene, and low socio-economic status. The results suggest that safe use ofcanal irrigation water is possible if households have a large water storage tank in their houseand have a continuous water supply for sanitation and hygiene. This was of greater importancethan the bacteriological quality of the drinking water. The results also showed a very strongassociation between poor availability of water in the household and stunting (low height forage) of children. Children from households having a large storage capacity for water in thehouse had much lower prevalence of stunting than children from families lacking such astorage facility. The study showed that increasing the quantity of irrigation water availablefor domestic use and providing toilet facilities are the most important interventions to reducethe burden of diarrheal disease and malnutrition. Irrigation water management clearly hasan impact on health and bridging the gap between the irrigation and drinking water supplysectors could provide important health benefits by considering the domestic water availabilitywhen managing irrigation water.

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Figure 11. Variations in water productivity at 40 irrigation systems.

collected so far can be used for showing the progress of water productivity and its contribution tothe overall food security equation.

Strategy and Approach

Several countries, including China, India, Pakistan, Japan, Korea, Turkey, Spain, Brazil, Iran,Indonesia and some African and east European countries, still have irrigation potential availableand plans for expansion. Ground water potential of some countries is also not fully utilized yet.Thus one of the most crucial questions is how much irrigation the world will need to meet household,national and global food security objectives? The answer depends upon how well we manage existingrain-fed and irrigated lands. What remains clear is that we need poverty-focused solutions to increasewater productivity in both rain-fed and irrigated areas.

There is a need to reduce the distance between the environmental and agricultural communitiesto find solutions that meet the objectives of food and environmental security. The divergence ofopinion on how to address these seemingly mutually exclusive objectives is hampering our abilityto find sustainable solutions for food security. To resolve these issues, information on pastlivelihood, environmental benefits and costs of agricultural water management initiatives arerequired to understand what has worked, and what are practical solutions to what has failed.

There is a need to develop innovative solutions that meet food security objectives whilemaintaining or improving human health and the environment, and meet social commitments on “waterscarcity” issues. These include the means of increasing water productivity in rain-fed and irrigatedareas, and technical, policy and institutional alternatives for targeting areas of malnutrition.

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Policy Imperatives

Several policy imperatives remain, these include:

• Increase public participation in the management of irrigation systems and in decision makingabout water resources

• Establish actually acceptable water rights and allocation mechanisms

• Establish mechanisms for effective cost recovery to pay for water services

• Establish mean of accountability between service providers and users

Other, emerging issues include:

• Sustainable management of groundwater

• Management of water recognizing its multiple uses, and values ofenvironmental uses.

Capacity Building

Since the Rio summit there has been a growing awareness of the need for integrated water resourcesmanagement (IWRM) and a widespread recognition of the lack of trained and experienced resourcemanagers. The numbers of training courses, workshops, and post-graduate courses in IWRM havebeen increasing. Initiatives such as the World Water Council (WWC), the Global Water Partnership(GWP), the World Water Vision, the World Water Forum, the World Water Assessment Programand the Dialogue on Water for Food and Environment continue to raise the awareness of bothprofessionals and civil society on the importance of improving stewardship of World waterresources. GWP–CAPNET and the GWP–WCA–INFONet initiatives are intended to provideinformation resources and support networks for water professionals. IPTRID and ICID continueto promote improved irrigation management linked to IWRM.

Whilst professional training in IWRM has been increasing there has, however, been a declinein the numbers of post-graduate and short courses aimed at professionals involved in irrigationwater management. There may be a shortage developing in the availability of suitably trainedmanagers and engineers to enable improved performance within the largest water-using sector. Thelow numbers of professional females involved in water management for agriculture is also a concernand should be addressed in the development of future training plans.

Conclusions

Since the Rio summit on environment and development in 1992, crop production has increasedsteadily and the growth of global food supplies has exceeded the demands of the increasingpopulation. However, this generally positive picture is overshadowed by continued disparities inavailability and security of food supplies in and among many countries; and the growing perceptionof a developing crisis in water availability and quality, partly fueled by mismanagement of water

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resources. The adverse impacts are generally born more by the poor and marginal sections of thesociety.

There is an urgent need to focus on water, agriculture and poverty to help alleviate problemsof malnutrition, inequity in access to water, and also to better integrate agricultural watermanagement with the needs of the environment and other sectors and that includes achievingdevelopment objectives while curtailing environmental degradation. Required policy and institutionalchanges include the need for well defined water rights and equitable water allocation procedures, atrue cross-sector approach to managing basin water resources, sufficient funding from private andpublic sources to develop the additional resources required by various sectors, and appropriatecapacity building in irrigation and IWRM. To help relieve problems of water scarcity, a greaterfocus on water productivity in rain-fed and irrigated agriculture is required. A key factor that willhelp bring this about is more reliable and responsive management of water which requires paymentfor water services to ensure sound operation and maintenance practices in irrigation. Increasingadoption of improved technologies and practices in rain-fed and irrigated agriculture will dependon better resource management and the presence of supporting institutional frameworks foragriculture.

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Annex

Table 1. Population growth and food production.

Variable Period World Developed countries Developing countries

Total Annual Total Annual Annualgrowth growth Total growth

Population1 1961 3,081 - 988 - 2,099 -(million) 1990 5,349 1.9 1,253 0.8 4,088 2.3

2000 6,055 1.2 1,304 0.4 4,750 1.5Food production2 1961 49 - 61 - 40 -index (1989-1991 1990 101 2.5 100 1.7 103 3.4average =100) 2000 124 2.1 101 0.1 144 3.4Cereal production2 1961 832 - 490 - 342 -(Million Mt) 1990 1,732 2.6 864 2.0 868 3.3

2000 1,862 1.0 844 -0.3 1,018 2.3Cereal production 1961 1% - 4% - -4% -deficit - % of 1990 1% - 11% - -9% -consumption2 1999 1% - 15% - -9% -Cumulative cereal 1971-1980 -159 - -119 - -56 -stock change2 1981-1990 -69 - -7 - -62 -

1991-1999 6 - 9 - -3 -Per capita per day 1961 2,277 - 2,968 - 1,954 -calorie supply 1990 2,712 0.6 3,295 0.4 2,529 0.9(Kcal) 2 1997 2,780 0.4 3,216 -0.3 2,700 0.9Number of 1979-1981 - - 959 -undernourished 1990-1992 - - 828 -people3 (millions) 1996-1998 826 - 34 - 790 -Note: Cereals, both food and feed, constitute the major part of the daily diet of most nations. The world’s cereal production in 1960to 1990 on average was sufficient in meeting the increasing demand for both food and feed. However, in the 1990s the world’scereal production has grown at a slower pace than before 1990 in developed countries. In contrast, cereal production indeveloping countries during the 1990s was still growing at a faster pace than the growth of the population. The contribution bydeveloping countries to total cereal production has increased from 41 percent in 1961 to 50 percent in 1990 and by 55 percentin 2000.Sources: 1 - UN 1999

2 - FAO 20013 - FAO 2000a

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