computing consequences in real time
TRANSCRIPT
Computing Consequences In Real Time
Leveraging Flood Inundation Mapping In the Cloud
William Lehman, Economist, Hydrologic Engineering Center USACE
• National Picture
• Show a simple map of structures
• Show a simple map of structures
• Show a simple map of structures
FAST – Flood Assessment Structure Tool
• Inputs: flood depth grid, structures
• Outputs: economic loss
• Python, runs independent from desktop Hazus
• FAST – not flashy!• https://github.com
/nhrap-hazus/FAST
Consequences
• Leverage IWRSS FIM• Leverage NSI• Leverage FEMA FAST• Provide better customer support
Approximations of reality
What is the appropriate cartographic unit?
Computing the Flood Risk of the Nation
One House at a time.
William Lehman, Economist, Hydrologic Engineering Center USACE
What are the hazards and
how likely are they to occur?
How will the infrastructure perform in the face of
these hazards?
Who and what are in harms way?How susceptible to harm are they?
How much harm is caused?
Risk = f(Hazard, Performance, Consequences)
What is Risk?
National Structure Inventory• Location, characteristics• USACE, FEMA
National Terrestrial Earth• Consistent High Quality
terrestrial data• USGS (3DEP), FEMA, USACE
National Statistical Storm Database*• Full Frequency by type• NOAA, NWS, USACE, USGS
National Levee Database• Location, characteristics• USACE, FEMA, State and
Local governments
Interagency National Modeling Datasets
National Inventory of Dams• Location, characteristics• USACE, FEMA, State and Local
governments
Critical Infrastructure Database• Inventory of critical roads, pipelines, power
lines, facilities• DHS (HIFLD data), DOT, DOE
* Indicates database does not currently exist
Consequence Calculations• Economic Loss• Life Loss• Environmental Loss• USACE, FEMA, USBR,
Rainfall Runoff• How does
precipitation convert to flow in our watersheds?
• USACE, NWS, NOAA, USGS
Weather Generation• Real time or
synthetic storms across all frequency
• USACE, NWS, NOAA
Geotechnical Database• How do our structures
(dams and levees) perform under load
• USACE, USBR, FERC, DHS
River Hydraulics• How does water
result in flooding throughout the system?
• FEMA, USACE,
Interagency National Modeling FrameworkSystem Operation• How do our mitigation
systems work and impact flow across watersheds
• USACE
Systems Based Risk Approach• All frequencies, all
watersheds connected
• Cloud based computing resources
• USACE, IWRSS, FIFNTF(SP?)
Truth is Beauty and Beauty is Truth.
Truth
DataModels
DataModels
DataModels
Where We Actually Are
Where We Think We Were
Where We Aspire To Be
Integrated Framework Capabilities
• Real Time Natural Hazard Response• Floodplain management
• Risk Mitigation• Risk Transfer• Risk Acceptance• Risk Management
• Defendable Risk Analytics – shared across agencies• Integrated plan for floodplain based funding across federal agencies
• Integration and leveraging authorities• Incentivizing collaboration and coordination