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Computing: the next decade Lennart Johnsson Department of Computer Science University of Houston

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Page 1: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Computing: the next decade

Lennart JohnssonDepartment of Computer Science

University of Houston

Page 2: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

TransistorsTransistors Circa 1947

Page 3: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

First Junction Transistor, 1951

http://www.pbs.org/transistor/science/info/junctw.html

Page 4: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

First Integrated circuits 1958-591958-1959 Integrated Circuits

Page 5: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

IC Technology

Technology and Economics in the Semiconductor Industry, G.D. Hutcheson and J.D. Hutcheson, Scientific American, October 1997

Page 6: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

WaferSilicon Wafer

Page 7: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Wafer sizes

Tom Garrett, Intel Program Briefing, May 11, 2001,http://www.intel.com/research/silicon/D1C.pdf

Page 8: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

IC Technology, Intel

Robert Chau, Gerald Marcyk, http://www.intel.com/research/silicon/20nmpressfoils.pdf

Page 9: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Intel Processor complexity

Gerald Marcyk, http://www.intel.com/research/silicon/MarcykIDF0801.pdf

Page 10: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Chip complexity

Technology and Economics in the Semiconductor Industry, G.D. Hutcheson and J.D. Hutcheson, Scientific American, October 1997

Page 11: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

IC Production Technology, 2007Demonstrated 2001

20 nm, 1.5 THz transistors demonstrated 2001Will enable 1 billion transistor chips operating at 20 GHz 2007

Robert Chau, Gerald Marcyk, http://www.intel.com/research/silicon/20nmpressfoils.pdf

Page 12: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Transistors, IntelProduction 2001 Production 2005

Production 2007

Paolo Gargini, http://www.intel.com/research/silicon/PaoloIDF022601.pdfRobert Chau, Gerald Marcyk, http://www.intel.com/research/silicon/20nmpressfoils.pdf

Page 13: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

On-Chip Interconnection

Paolo Gargini, http://www.intel.com/research/silicon/PaoloIDF022601.pdf

Page 14: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography

Gary Stix, Scientific American, April 2001, http://scientificamerican.com/2001/0401issue/0401innovations.html

Page 15: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

UV vs EUV lithography

Charles Gwyn, Intel, Cahners MDR Microprocessor Forum, October 11, 2000,http://www.intel.com/research/silicon/euv_mpf_101100.pdf

Page 16: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Lithography – EUV/DUV

Charles Gwyn, Intel, Cahners MDR Microprocessor Forum, October 11, 2000,http://www.intel.com/research/silicon/euv_mpf_101100.pdf

Page 17: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Transistor Sizes vs. DNA

Gerald Marcyk, Intel Developer Forum, Fall 2001,http://www.intel.com/research/silicon/MarcykIDF0801.pdf

Page 18: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

PIV die

Page 19: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

SIA Roadmap – DRAM Capacity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Gbi

ts

1999 180 nm

2000 2001 130 nm

2002 2003 .

2004 2005 .

2008 60 nm

2011 40 nm

2014 30 nm

DRAM: Gbits per Chip; High Volume & High Density

DRAM Gbits/chip atproduction

DRAM Gbits/chip atintroduction

Page 20: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

SIA Roadmap – DRAM Cell Sizes

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Cel

l siz

e m

icro

n2

1999 180 nm

2000 2001 130 nm

2002 2003 .

2004 2005 .

2008 60 nm

2011 40 nm

2014 30 nm

DRAM: Cell factor x 10-3 and cell size micron2

DRAM Cell factor x 10-3

DRAM Cell areamicron2

Page 21: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

SIA Roadmap – Chips sizes

Chip Sizes

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1999 180 nm

2000 .

2001 130 nm

2002 .

2003 .

2004 90 nm

2005 .

2008 60 nm

2011 40 nm

2014 30 nm

mm

2

DRAM Chip Size at Introduction, mm2

DRAM Chip Size at Production, mm2

MPU, High-volume Microprocessor, Cost-Performance, at Introduction, mm2MPU, High-volume Microprocessor, Cost-Performance, at Production, mm2MPU, Low-volume Microprocessor, High-Performance, at Production, mm2ASIC, at Production, mm2

Page 22: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

SIA Roadmap – Transistor density

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Mtra

nsis

tors

/cm

2

1999 180nm

2000 .

2001 130nm

2002 .

2003 .

2004 90 nm

2005 .

2008 60 nm

2011 40 nm

2014 30 nm

Transistor Density/cm2

DRAM, transistor density at introduction(Mtransistors/cm2)DRAM, transistor density at production(Mtransistors/cm2)SRAM, transistor density at introduction(Mtransistors/cm2)Logic, transistor density at introduction(Mtransistors/cm2)MPU, Cost-Performance, transistor density atintroduction (Mtransistors/cm2)MPU, Cost-Performance, transistor density atproduction (Mtransistors/cm2)MPU, High-Performance, transistor density atproduction (Mtransistors/cm2)ASIC at production, (Mtransistors/cm2)

Page 23: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

SIA Roadmap – Functions per chip

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

1999 180 nm

2000 2001 130 nm

2002 .

2003 .

2004 90 nm

2005 .

2008 60 nm

2011 40 nm

2014 30 nm

Functions per chip, Mtransistors

DRAM, at Production

DRAM, at Introduction

MPU, Cost-Performance, atProduction MPU, Cost-Performance, atIntroduction MPU, High-Performance, atProduction ASIC, at Production

Page 24: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

SIA Roadmap – Clock rates

0.000

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

GH

z

1999 180nm

2000 .

2001 130nm

2002 .

2003 .

2004 90 nm

2005 .

2008 60 nm

2011 40 nm

2014 30 nm

Clock rates

On Chip local clock, High-Performance

On-Chip, across chip clock,High-Performance

On-Chip, across chip clock,High-Performance, ASIC

On-Chip, across chip clock,Cost-Performance

Chip to Board (off-chip)speed, High-Performance,Reduced-Width, MultiplexedbusChip to Board (off-chip)speed, High-Performance,Peripheral bus

Page 25: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

SIA Roadmap - Costs

05

1015202530354045

$/M

tran

sist

or

1999 180nm

2001 130nm

2003 .

2005 100nm

2011 40 nm

Cost/Mtransistor

DRAM, cost x 100, at Introduction,$/MtransistorsDRAM, cost x 100, at Production,$/MtransistorsMPU, Cost-Performance, atIntroduction, $/MtransistorsMPU, Cost-Performance, atProduction, $/MtransistorsMPU, High Performance, atProduction, $/Mtransistors

Page 26: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Relative IC densities

• DRAM 1.00• SRAM 0.13• Logic 0.03

Page 27: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Semiconductor Roadmap - IBM

http://www.research.ibm.com/0.1um

Page 28: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Networking

Page 29: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

ARPA Net, 1969

Page 30: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

ARPA Net, 1980

Page 31: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Internet2 - Abilene

Page 32: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

The Internet, 1999

Page 33: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Total number of Internet Hosts

http://www.isc.org/ds/hosts.html

Page 34: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Network Proliferation

Page 35: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Internet around the World

Page 36: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Interplanetary Internet

Page 37: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Interplanetary Internet

155 missions, and counting

Page 38: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Interplanetary Internet

HumanExploration

Earth Science Deep Space Science

In-depth Planetary Exploration

Progressive, planned deployment of reusable communications infrastructure

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Page 39: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Capabilities

Page 40: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Fiberoptics

Page 41: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

All optical networks

Page 42: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Capabilities - OpticsNetwork Junction of large fiber bundles

Assume:50 fibers,100 wavelengths,40 Gb/s per wavelengthSwitching or

RoutingNode

(50/2) * 100* 40 = 100 Tb/s in each direction

This node would require200 Tb/s input + 200 Tb/s output capacity.

The dominant traffic in the network is IPLAN, WAN, SAN(?) - Convergence

Page 43: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Pervasive computing

Page 44: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

The world wide computer• Internet Provides Connectivity• Web Provides Hyperlinked File System• Distributed Storage Moving from SAN to NAS• Peer-to-Peer Computing Provides Vast CPU Power• Result--The Distributed Global Computer

– Storage everywhere– Scalable computing– Wireless Interfaces Greatly Outnumber PC Interfaces

“When the Network is as fast as the computer’s internal links, the machine disintegrates across the Net into a set of

special purpose appliances”-Gilder Technology Report June 2000

Page 45: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Peer-to-Peer Computing

Larry SmarrComputer Science

& Engineering

Exponential Growth inScale of PC Parallel Computers

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

10000000

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

NASA Beowulf (1GF)

Sandia ASCI Red (1TF)

SETI@home (10TF)

Megacomputers (PFs)

1,000,000x in Only Ten Years

Page 46: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Entrap.com’s PrimeNet Grew to a Teraflop in Only Two YearsThe Great Mersenne Prime (2P-1) Search (GIMPS) Found

the First Million Digit Prime www.entropia.comSustained Throughput Today of 1.3 TF (30,000 PCs) = 47 Cray T916s

Larry SmarrComputer Science

& Engineering

Page 47: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Peer-to-Peer Computing

Larry SmarrComputer Science

& Engineering

SETI@home was the Breakthrough toPC Internet Computing

• Running on 500,000 PCs, ~1000 CPU Years per Day– 428,438 CPU Years so far

• Sophisticated Data & Signal Processing Analysis• Distributes Datasets from Arecibo Radio Telescope

Next Step-Allen Telescope Array

Page 48: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Computing Platforms 2001 ⇒ 2030

• Personal Computers O[$1000]– 109 Flops/sec in 2001 ⇒ 1015 – 1017 Flops/sec by 2030

• Supercomputers O[$100,000,000]– 1013 Flops/sec in 2001 ⇒ 1018 – 1020 Flops/sec by 2030

• Number of Computers [global population ~1010]– SCs ⇒ 10-8 –10-6 per person ⇒ 102 – 104 systems– PCs ⇒ .1x – 10x per person ⇒ 109 – 1011 systems– Embedded ⇒ 10x – 105x per person ⇒ 1011 – 1015 systems– Nanocomputers ⇒ 0x – 1010 per person ⇒ 0 – 1020 systems

• Available Flops Planetwide by 2030– 1024 – 1030 Flops/sec [assuming classical models of computation]

Page 49: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Peer-to-Peer Computing

Page 50: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Pervasive Computing - Sun

Shahin Kahn

Page 51: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Pervasive Computing - Oxygen

http://oxygen.lcs.mit.edu

Page 52: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Pervasive Computing - InfoSphere

http://www.cc.gatech.edu/projects/infosphere/SBBDkeynote.pdf

Page 53: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Pervasive Computing - InfoSphere

http://www.cc.gatech.edu/projects/infosphere/SBBDkeynote.pdf

Page 54: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Pervasive Computing - InfoSphere

http://www.cc.gatech.edu/projects/infosphere/SBBDkeynote.pdf

Page 55: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Storage

Page 56: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Disk drive evolution - IBM

http://www.almaden.ibm.com/sst/

Page 57: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Disk storage roadmap – IBM

85 90 95 100 105 110 115

Availability Year

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

10000A

real

Den

sity

, Gbi

ts/in

2IBM Advanced Storage Roadmap

Superparamagnetic Effect

1 Gbit/in2 Demo 3 Gbits/in2 Demo

5 Gbits/in2 Demo12.1 Gbits/in2

20.3 Gbits/in2 Deskstar 40GVUltrastar36LZX

Enhanced Magnetic Disk Drive

Advanced Storage Technology/Holography

2000 05 10 15

Microdrive 10K RPM Integrated Head/Suspension Giant MR Head/Pico Slider Ramp Load/Unload, Glass Substrates No-ID MR Head/Nano-slider PRML Data Channel Thin Film/High Coercivity DisksSmall Form Factor

Lab Demos3.5 Inch FF2.5 Inch FF>10 Inch FF

ED GROCHOWSKI at ALMADEN

advr

dmp2

0a.p

rz

35.3 Gbits/in2 Travelstar30GT

http://www.almaden.ibm.com/sst/

Page 58: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Disk storage areal density - IBM

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

Are

al D

ensi

ty, M

bits

/inch

2Areal Density of Magnetic HDD and DRAM

25% = 2X per 3 years40 260 1.5100 1

25% CGR

60% CGR

40% CGR

1M4M

16M

64M256M

1024M

3380E3380K

Travelstar 6GN

Ultrastar 36XPUltrastar 18XP

Ultrastar 2XPUltrastar XP

Corsair3390-2

Ultrastar 36ZX

Ed Grochowski at Almaden

AREA

L98E

.PR

Z

Travelstar 25GSUltrastar 36LZX

100% CGR

http://www.almaden.ibm.com/sst/

Page 59: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Disk storage - supermagnetism

http://www.almaden.ibm.com/st/projects/patternedmedia/

Page 60: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Disk storage – AFC technology

http://www.research.ibm.com/resources/news/20010518_pixie_dust.shtml

Page 61: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Disk storage - cost

IBM 9.1GB Ultra 2XP

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000 P

rice/

MB

yte,

Dol

lars

HDD DRAM Flash Paper/FilmAverage Price of Storage

IBM 18.2GB Ultrastar

IBM Deskstar 37GB

Toshiba 6.4GB

IBM Deskstar4

IBM Deskstar3

IBM 16.8GB Deskstar

IBM 8.1GB Travelstar

Seagate 8.6GB

Quant 4.5GB

64MB

IBM 9.1GB Ultrastar

96 MB Flash Camera Mem.

64MB Flash4MB Flash

16MB Flash1MB Flash

512KB Flash256KB Flash

128KB Flash

8KB

32KB 64KB

128KB

512KB 1MB 2MB

4MB

IBM6150

Wren II Seagate ST125

Maxt170IBM0615

IBM0663

Seagate B'cuda4

Seagate ST500

oem

prc2

000a

a.pr

z

128MB Flash

64MB

Ed Grochowski at Almaden

128MB Flash

IBM 25GB Travelstar

IBM 340 MB Microdrive

IBM Deskstar 25GB

IBM Deskstar 75GXP

IBM 1 GB Microdrive

1" HDD ProjectionDataQuest 2000

Flash ProjectionDataQuest 2000

Range of Paper/Film

3.5 " HDD 2.5 " HDD

1 " HDD

Flash

DRAM

http://www.almaden.ibm.com/sst/

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Disk drive data rates – IBM

90 95 100 105Availability Year

1

10

100

Max

imum

Inte

rnal

Dat

a R

ate,

MB

ytes

/s

90 95 2000 2005

Magnetic Hard Disk Drive Internal Data Rate IBM Products

2.5 inch Mobile Products

3.5 inch Server Products

40 % CGRUltrastar 18XPUltrastar 9ZX

Travelstar 10GTTravelstar 14GSUltrastar 2XP

Travelstar 6GTTravelstar 8GS

Travelstar 3GNTravelstar 5GS

Travelstar 4GTTravelstar VP

Travelstar 3XP

Travelstar 2XP

Ultrastar XP

Travelstar 2LPTravelstar XP

Travelstar Travelstar LP

Wakasa

SpitfireAllicat

Sawmill

Corsair 1,2

Ultrastar 18ZXUltrastar 36XP

1 GHz

100 MHz

10 MHz

Data Channel Performance

Ultrastar 36ZX

Ed Grochowski at Almaden

drtr

d200

0va.

prz

Travelstar 25GS

Ultrastar 36 LZX

Data rate = Linear x RPM x Disk Density Diam.

.

Deskstar 75GXP

Travelstar 32GH

http://www.almaden.ibm.com/sst/

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Disk storage performance

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Availability Year

1

10

100Ti

me,

mill

isec

onds

IBM HDD Access/Seek Time-Performance Increase

Accessing

Seeking Rotating

Ultrastar 36ZX

Ultrastar 36XPUltrastar 18ZX

Ultrastar 18XPUltrastar 2XPUltrastar XP

Ultrastar 9ZX

IBM Advanced Technology

seek time ~(inertia/power)1/3 x (data band)2/3

rotational time ~ (RPM) -1

(latency)

SEEK

1999

A.P

RZ

Ultrastar 36LZX

http://www.almaden.ibm.com/sst/

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Visualization

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Display Walls

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Display Walls

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Virtual DisplaysPortable Virtual Projection Display, BSAC, UCB

Liquid CrystalDisplay

Virtual Retina Display

http://www.mvis.com/techprod.htm

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E-Ink – Electronic Paper

http://www.eink.com/technology/index.htm

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Gyricon – Electronic Paper

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Technology on the horizon

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Smart Dust - UCBRF Mote

Sensor Laser Mote with CCD

Laser MoteRF Mini Mote I

RF Mini Mote II

IrDA Mote

http://robotics.eecs.berkeley.edu/~pister/SmartDust/

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MEMS – Pressure Sensor

http://www.darpa.mil/mto/mems/presentations/memsatdarpa3.pdf

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MEMS - Sonoelectronics

http://www.darpa.mil/mto/mems/presentations/memsatdarpa3.pdf

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As Our Bodies Move On-Line• New Sensors—Israeli Video Pill

– Battery, Light, & Video Camera– Images Stored on Hip Mounted Device

• Next Step—Putting You On-Line!– Key Metabolic and Physical Variables– Wireless Internet Transmission

• Post-Genomic Individualized Medicine– Combine Your Genetic Code & Imaging,

with Your Body’s Data Flow – Use Powerful Data Mining Techniques

www.givenimaging.com

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MEMS - Biosensors

http://www.darpa.mil/mto/mems/presentations/memsatdarpa3.pdf

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MEMS - Picosatellites

http://www.darpa.mil/mto/mems/presentations/memsatdarpa3.pdf

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MEMS - Picosatellites

http://www.darpa.mil/mto/mems/presentations/memsatdarpa3.pdf

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Carbon nanotubes - IBM

http://www.research.com/resources/news/20010425_Carbon_Nantubes.shtml

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Molecular Computing

Mark A. Reed and James M. Tour, Scientific American, June 2000

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Molecular computing

A micron resolutioncircuit pattern

Polymer transistorson plastic substrate

Philips ResearchEindhoven

http://www.research.philips.com/pressmedia/pictures/polelec.html

An inorganic semi-conductor droplet processed at plastic compatible temperatures

Polymertransistorson plastic substrate

http://www.media.mit.edu/nanomedia/projects.htmlhttp://www.bell-labs.com/org/physicalsciences/projects/plastic/plastic.html

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Molecular Transistor

Mark A. Reed and James M. Tour, Scientific American, June 2000

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Polymer Radio Frequency Identification Transponder

http://www.research.philips.com/pressmedia/pictures/polelec.html

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Bell Labs – MEMS Switch

http://www.bell-labs.com/org/physicalsciences/projects/mems/mems.html

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Bell Labs – MEMS Switch

http://www.bell-labs.com/org/physicalsciences/projects/mems/mems.html

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Holographic Storage - InPhase

http://www.inphase-technologies.com/

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Portable Devices

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Applications

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E-Science: Data Gathering, Analysis, Simulation, and

Collaboration

LHC

CMS

Simulated Higgs Decay

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Applications Drivers [circa 2001]• Today: data intensive science

communities– High energy physics– Astronomy– Earth science

• Emerging: human intensive science communities– Engineering– Biology– Nanoscience– Exploration

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Tele-Science

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Whole Internet Simulation

• ~106 – 108 routers• ~109 – 1011 devices

• Modeling of routing and dynamic resource management

• Determining the response of the internet [and other networks] to accidental and intentional disruptions

• Creating an automated market for bandwidth, network CPU cycles, lambdas and network storage, etc

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Electron microscopy

500 Å

400 kV electron image of herpesvirus capsids

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Electron microscopy8.5 Å Structure of the HSV-1 Capsid

• 12 Pentons (VP5)• 150 Hexons

(VP5, VP26)• 320 Triplexes

(1 VP19C, 2VP23)

Diameter 1250Å

Total no. proteins 2820Capsid shell 192 MDaAsymmetric unit 3.2 MDa

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Biomedical imaging

MRI Nuclear Medicine

Optical TomographyX-ray ComputedTomography

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Biomedical simulation

U.S. Department of EnergyPacific Northwest National Laboratory

11/25/00 27

Virtual Lung from PNNL's Virtual Biology Center

NWGrid & NWPhysdesigned to simulate coupledfluid dynamics and continuummechanics in complexgeometries using 3-D, hybrid,adaptive, unstructured grids.

NWGrid - grid generation &setup toolbox

NWPhys - collection ofcomputational physics solvers

Harold Trease, PNNL

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In 1988 … NEXRAD Was Becoming a Reality

s fn

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The Impact of Horizontal Resolution

Radar CAPS 6-hour LocalForecast

s fn

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Wildfire simulation

Page 99: Computing: the next decade - Computer Sciencejohnsson/Talks/Computing_RS.pdfComputing: the next decade ... 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3. Cell size micron. 2. 1999 180 nm ... 1MB 2MB 4MB IBM6150

Scheduling of large systems

Continental Airlines

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Simulation of complex mechanical systems

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Analysis of large data collections

les robertson - cern-it-09-00 10 last update 11/25/00 5:15CERN

The LHC DetectorsCMS

ATLAS

LHCbRaw recording rate 0.1 – 1 GB/sec

3.5 PetaBytes / year~108 events/year

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Grid – Prediction Started at the Large Scale…

This ThunderstormFalls Through the Cracks

736 kmgridspacing

19502000

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A Dynamic Environment

10 km

3 km1 km

20 km CONUS Ensembles

10 km

3 km

3 km

3 km

3 km

10 km

20 km CONUS Ensemblest=0

t=6 hrs

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Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS)

ARPS Data Analysis System (ADAS)

ARPS Numerical Model– Multi-scale non-hydrostatic prediction model with comprehensive physics

– Plots and images – Animations – Diagnostics and statistics – Forecast evaluation

– Ingest – Quality control – Objective analysis – Archival

Single-Doppler Velocity Retrieval (SDVR)

4-D Vari ational

Data Assimilation

Variational Vel -ocity Adjustment

& Thermo-dynamic Retrieval

ARPS Data Assimilation System (ARPSDAS)

ARPSP LT and ARPSV IEW

Inco

min

g da

ta

Oklahoma MesonetWSR-88D Wideband

ASOS/AWOS

SAO

ACARSCLASS

Mobile Mesonet

Profilers

Rawinsondes

Satellite

Lateral boundary conditions from large-scale models

Gridded first guessData Acquisition

& AnalysisData Acquisition

& Analysis

Forecast GenerationForecast Generation

Parameter Retrieval and 4DDAParameter Retrieval and 4DDA

Product Generation and Data Support System

Product Generation and Data Support System

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6 pm 7 pm 8 pmFo

reca

stR

adar

2 hr 3 hr 4 hr

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Weather Service Radar Sites

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Observations: A Dynamic EnvironmentObservations: A Dynamic EnvironmentNEXRAD Data via Internet/AbileneNEXRAD Data via Internet/Abilene

As Weather Develops, QOS Must AdaptAs Weather Develops, QOS Must Adapt

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Evolution of Computer Power/Costs


SRL: The Next Decade

The Next Decade - Conference Proceedings 4

Aweful_Disclosures_of_Maria_Monk-4MB scan.pdf

Software challenges for the next decade

Grid Computing: the Next Decade

Operations Research: The Next Decade - Stanford …web.stanford.edu/~glynn/papers/1988/G88.pdf · OPERATIONS RESEARCH: THE NEXT DECADE Committee On the Next Decade in Operations Research

The internet’s turbulent next decade

Block Storage Virtualization with Commodity Secure Digital ... · SanDiskTM(WP7) 8GB 4 4MB 32KB KingstonTM 4GB 4 4MB 32KB ADATATM 8GB 6 4MB 32KB PNYTM 16GB 10 4MB 32KB Table 1. SD

Meeting the challenges of the next decade · The next decade Cf tichallenges The next decade Confronting new Diverse technology solutions Pragmatic policies ... CBM 0 5 10 More renewables

Northern Economy in the Next Decade

Talent management: transforming forces for the next decade · Talent management: transforming forces for the next decade May 12, 2010

Rhododendron (pdf, 4Mb)

General Knowledge 4mb

Next Decade Commercial Aircraft Aerodynamics - Boeing

Projects of the next decade:

Strategic Blueprint for the Next Decade - Glenmark Pharmaglenmarkpharma.com/sites/default/files/StrategicBlueprint_Dec2016_Investor.pdfStrategic Blueprint for the Next Decade 19th

Global fi rms in 2020 The next decade of change for ... · PDF fileThe next decade of change for organisations and workers 1 ... Executive summary 4 ... The next decade of change

Next Decade for WiMAX - WiMAX 2.0

Pluto: the next decade of discovery

Next decade of sterile neutrino studies

CBM opportunity of next decade

Turkey’s World in the Next Decade

The Next Decade

next decade

Moving IEEE into the Next Decade

Spatial analysis in the next decade

Decisions that shape the next decade

Download Brochure (4MB)

Next decade banking trends

PHENIX: The Next BUP and the Next Decade

Outlook for the next decade

thesis pdf, 4MB

Finanicial Services in Next Decade

Scientific Challenges for the Next Decade

The internet’s turbulent next decade