concepts and indicators to support climate adaptation in...

ConceptsandIndicatorstoSupportClimateAdaptation

intheSouthernGulf,NorthWestQueensland,Australia:

BenchmarkEvidenceBase

RebeccaPearse,AllanDale

TheCairnsInstitute,JamesCookUniversity,Cairns

PublishedbyTheCairnsInstitute,JamesCookUniversity,Cairns

ThisreportislicencedunderaCreativeCommonsAttribution3.0Australialicence.Youarefreeto

copy,communicateandadaptthiswork,solongasyouattributeJamesCookUniversity[TheCairns

Institute]andtheauthor.

Thisreportshouldbecitedas:Pearse,R.,&Dale,A.(2015).Applyingsocialresilienceconceptsand

indicatorstosupportclimateadaptationtheSouthernGulf,NorthWestQueensland,Australia:

Benchmarkevidencebase.Cairns:JamesCookUniversity.

Theviewsandopinionsexpressedinthispublicationarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarily

reflectthoseoftheCairnsInstituteorJamesCookUniversity.

Thisreportisavailablefordownloadfromeprints.jcu.edu.au/

October2015

TableofContents1. ABBREVIATIONSUSEDINTHISREPORT.........................................................................................I

2. INTRODUCTION.......................................................................................................................1

3. THESOUTHERNGULFCATCHMENTSREGION...............................................................................3

4. CLIMATECHANGE...................................................................................................................5

5. METHODANDAPPROACHES.....................................................................................................6

6. RESULTS................................................................................................................................8

7. STRATEGICPRIORITIES...........................................................................................................12

8. POTENTIALNEXTSTEPS..........................................................................................................13

9. ATTRIBUTETABLESOUTHERNGULFPROFILE-2015...................................................................14

9.1 ATTRIBUTEONE:ECONOMICVIABILITY...................................................................................14

9.2 ATTRIBUTETWO:COMMUNITYKNOWLEDGE,ASPIRATIONSANDCAPACITY...................................29

9.3 ATTRIBUTETHREE:COMMUNITYVITALITY...............................................................................34

9.4 ATTRIBUTEFOUR:GOVERNANCE...........................................................................................43

10. REFERENCES......................................................................................................................47

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1. AbbreviationsusedinthisreportAFL AustralianFootballLeague

AUD Australiandollar

CDEP CommunityDevelopmentEmploymentProjects

COPD Chronicobstructivepulmonarydisease

CSIRO CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation

CRC CooperativeResearchCentre

DPS DiamantinaPowerStation

EDV EmergencyDepartmentVisits

FRAP FlindersRiverAgriculturalPrecinct

FTA FreeTradeAgreement

GSD GulfSavanahDevelopment

HEd HigherEducation

IFED IntegratedFoodandEnergyDevelopments

JCU JamesCookUniversity

JTHC JimaylyaTopsyHarryCentre

LGA LocalGovernmentArea

M&E MonitoringandEvaluation

MITEZ MountIsatoTownsvilleEconomicZone

MMG MineralsandMetalsGroup

NDRRA NaturalDisasterReliefandRecoveryArrangements

NESP NationalEnvironmentalSciencesProgram

NHMRC NationalHealthandMedicalResearchCouncil

NQ NorthQueensland

NQIAS NorthQueenslandIrrigationAgriculturalStrategy

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NQRSC NorthQueenslandResourcesSupplyChain

NRM NaturalResourceManagement

NWQ NorthWestQueensland

PCYC Police-CitizensYouthClub

RACQ RoyalAutomobileClubofQueensland

RDAT&NW RegionalDevelopmentAustraliaTownsvilleandNorthWestQueensland

SGC SouthernGulfCatchments

SWEEP StrategicWeederadicationandEducationProgram

TAFE TechnicalandFurtherEducation

TNQ TropicalNorthQueensland

VET VocationalEducationandTraining

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2. IntroductionRegional and remote communities in Northern Australia are among Australia’s most

vulnerableinthefaceofclimatechange.Theyfacepotentialsealevelrise,moreintensedry

spells,increasingandlongertemperaturespeaksandtheriskofmoreintensecyclonesand

floods(Marshall,2015).SociologicallyandecologicallydiverseregionssuchastheSouthern

GulfCatchmentsregion(SouthernGulf)faceanuncertainfuture.TheSouthernGulfisavast

and flat regionwithpastoral,mining andAboriginal communities livingon low lying flood

plainsandislands.TothesouthonthehighergroundoftheMountIsaInlierbioregion,the

predominantindustryisminingandpastoralism.Theregionalsocontainsareasofsignificant

biodiversity,withtheGulfofCarpentariabeingawetlandofinternationalsignificance.

Thisreportbuildsonworkundertakeninothernaturalresourcemanagement(NRM)regions

ofTropicalNorthQueensland.Fourregionshavepreviouslyundertakenasocially-orientated

approachtoclimatechangeadaptationplanningataregionalscale(Daleetal.,2011).Initial

research explored the potential to use social resilience indicators in theWet Tropics sub

region. Thisworkwas subsequentlyextended in2012and2013 to theTorres Strait,Cape

York Peninsula and theNorthernGulf of Carpentaria (see Dale et al., 2014; Dale, Vella&

Cottrell,2015).

Theprocess gathersmultiple ‘linesof evidence’ into four stable “clusters”of attributesof

socialresilience(Daleetal.,2011).Thesefourattributeclusterscontainthebasicknowledge

needed to track and measure social resilience at any scale and to assist the regional

communitytodesign,implementandreviewregionalstrategiestobuildsocialresilience.In

this case, the regional scale covered by the SouthernGulf CatchmentNRM is considered.

Thefourattributeclustersare: (i)economicvitality; (ii)communityvitality; (iii)community

knowledge, aspirations and capacity; and (iv) governance. The individual social resilience

attributesthatwereusedtoorganisethegatheringofmultiple linesofevidenceto inform

thefourkeyattributeindicatorsdevelopedareshownbelowinTable1.

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Table1.Fourclustersofsocialresilienceattributes

Attributecluster Exampleresilienceattributesthatcanbeusedtogathermultiplelinesof

evidenceandasabasisforthedevelopmentofattributeindicators

1. Economicviability 1.1 Diversityandqualityofgrowthineconomicactivity

1.2 Naturalresourcebase-Vulnerabilityofnaturalandenergyresourcebase

1.3 Economicequality-inclusivenessandeconomicfairness/equity

1.4 Workforceparticipationandemployment

1.5 Economicconfidence

1.6 Vulnerabilityofkeyeconomicinfrastructureassets

2. Community

knowledge,aspirations

andcapacity

2.1 Communityawarenesslevelsofclimatechangeandnaturalresource

sustainability

2.2 Education/knowledgelevelsandspreadacrossthecommunity

2.3 Skilllevelsandspreadacrossthecommunity

2.4 Individualleadershipandcomplexproblemsolving

2.5 Communityculturalintegrity

3. Communityvitality 3.1 Demographicstability

3.2 Wellbeing/happinesswithinthegeneralcommunity

3.3 Generalregionalcommunityhealthanddisparities

3.4 Communityservices,infrastructure,access,anddisparities

3.5 Housing,accommodationandaccessibility

3.6 Communitysafety,riskandriskmanagement

4. Governance 4.1 Structuralintegrityofregionalgovernancesystem

4.2 Connectivitywithinandamongkeydecision-makinginstitutionsand

sectors

4.3 Adaptivemanagementcapacityofkeydecision-makinginstitutionsand

sectors

4.4 Adaptiveuseandmanagementofintegratedknowledgesets.

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3. TheSouthernGulfCatchmentsRegion

Forthepurposesofthisstudy,theSouthernGulfCatchments(SGC)regioncoversthearea

covered by the Southern Gulf Catchments NRMGroup. The boundaries of the region are

basedontheaggregatecatchmentsofthemajorriversthatdrainintothesouthernpartof

theGulfofCarpentaria,including:

• TheFlindersandCloncurryRivers

• TheLeichardtandAlexandraRivers

• TheNicholson,GregoryandAlbertRivers

• SettlementCreekandthesmallercreeksontheQld/NTborder

• MorningInletbetweentheLeichardtandFlindersrivers.

TheWellesey andMornington islands and the southern area of the ocean of the Gulf of

Carpentariaarealsoincluded(SouthernGulfCatchments,2005).

TheSouthernGulf region covers anarea comparable to the sizeofVictoria, however, the

populationisonly30,000people.ItstartswiththesouthernendoftheGulfofCarpentaria

andtheislandsoffthecoastthenfollowsthecourseoftheriverssouthandeasttoinclude

Mount Isa and the towns on the Barkly Highway as far as Hughenden (Southern Gulf

Catchments,2005).ThisregionisfullyinclusiveofDoomadgeeAboriginalShire,BurkeShire

andMorningtonShireand incorporatespartsofMount IsaCity,CloncurryShire,McKinlay

Shire,RichmondShireandFlindersShire(whileextendingtoasmallextentinthewestinto

theNorthernTerritory).

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Figure1.SouthernGulfCatchmentsmap.Source:CourtesySouthernGulfCatchments

http://www.southerngulf.com.au/usingdatafromhttps://data.qld.gov.au/dataset/local-government-area-

boundaries-queensland/

The Southern Gulf catchment almost fully resides within Regional Development Australia

Townsville and North West Queensland (RDA T&NW) region. In addition Mount Isa,

Cloncurry,McKinlayandRichmondarepartoftheMount IsatoTownsvilleEconomicZone

(MITEZ).Burke,Carpentaria,DoomadgeeAboriginalShireandMorningtonShirearepartof

theGulfSavanahDevelopment(GSD)zone.

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4. ClimateChange

Asmentionedintheintroduction,regionalandremotecommunitiesareamongstAustralia’s

mostvulnerable in the faceofclimatechange. It is therefore important tounderstandthe

regionalclimatechangepredictions.

Annual variations in rainfall are likely to continue to be accompanied by increases in

temperature and evaporation. These changes are likely to increase the frequency of

heatwavesandreducesurfacewateravailability,especially inthelatedryseason.Extreme

weathereventsarealsolikelytoincreaseresultinginfloodevents.Itisalsolikelythatsea-

levelswill continue to riseover thecomingcentury.A riseofbetween60mmand170mm

abovethe1986-2005levelisprojectedby2030(Marshalletal.,2015).

Average annual temperature has increased 0.2°C over the last decade (from 26.6°C to

26.8°C). Projections indicate an increase of up to 4.4°C by 2070, leading to annual

temperatureswell beyond those experienced over the last 50 years. By 2070, Burketown

mayhavemorethantwicethenumberofdaysover35°C,increasingfromanaverageof102

peryear toanaverageof222peryearby2070 (QueenslandGovernment,2012).Average

annualrainfall inthe lastdecadehasalso increasedbymorethan3percentcomparedto

theprevious30years.This isgenerallyconsistentwithnaturalvariabilityexperiencedover

thelast110years,whichmakesitdifficulttodetectanyinfluenceofclimatechangeatthis

stage.Modelshaveprojectedarangeofrainfallchangesfromanannualincreaseof24per

centtoadecreaseof26percentby2070.Projectionsindicateannualpotentialevaporation

couldincrease7–14percentby2070(QueenslandGovernment,2012).

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5. MethodandApproaches

As mentioned above, the socially-oriented approaches to climate change adaptation

planning developed in Tropical North Queensland (TNQ) provided a perfect vehicle to

explore and evaluate a wider range of social resilience issues that might typically face

vulnerable regions, particularly in a diverse tropical context. Exploring the range of social

adaptation measures from a holistic and socially-oriented approach to climate change

adaptationwillsupporttheregionanditscommunitiesindevelopingitsownregionalsocial

adaptation strategies and to underpin policy and investment negotiations with the

QueenslandandAustralianGovernments.

Consequently, the methods used in the development of this paper are simple and

preliminary innature.Basedon the foundation region-widesocialadaptationmeasuresor

strategiesidentifiedinDaleetal.(2014):

1. Theresearchteamundertookadetailedexaminationoftheliteratureandrelevant

experiential knowledge available to scope the regional context behind the social

resilienceofthesoutherngulfregion;and

2. Thiswas followedbydiscussionwith theSGCBoardmembers at ameetingon19

October 2015 to evaluate the evidence and conclusions drawn from the evidence

andtohelpassignaquantitativeindextotheattributes.

Throughthisapproachwedevelopedanindexratingforeachofthefourclustersofsocial

resilienceattributes.Consistencyinfurtherreviewingthisrating-basedapproachovertime

canbeachievedthrough:

• Properlyrecordingasummaryoftheindicatorsandlinesofevidenceusedto

determinetheindex(seethebelowrecordofevidenceprofiles)

• Makingdatalimitationsexplicitandrecordingtheseatthetimeofdeterminingthe

indexfigure(asperevidenceprofilesbelow)

• Recordingstatementsofclarificationconcerningourresearchteamlogicinsetting

theindexvalue(againasoutlinedintheevidenceprofiles)

• Attemptingtokeeptheindexmeasurerulesconsistentovertime.

Asimplesetofdecisionrulesappliedindeterminingtheindexvalueforeachattribute(and

addedforthefourattributeclusters)wereasoutlinedinTable2.

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Table2.Indexscaleofcommunityresilienceattributes

IndexRating DecisionRule

5 Therelevantcommunitywilleasilymitigateandadapttothemostsevereimpactsofclimate

changeandextremeclimaticevents,maintainingorimprovingtheireconomicandsocial

wellbeingandthehealthoftheirnaturalresourcebaseovertime.

4 Therelevantcommunitywillmakesomeprogressonmitigationandaccommodatingthe

mostsevereimpactsofclimatechangeandextremeclimaticevents,maintainingtheir

economicandsocialwellbeingandthehealthoftheirnaturalresourcebaseovertime.

3 Therelevantcommunitywillsuffersomeshocksassociatedwiththemostsevereimpactsof

climatechangeandextremeclimaticevents,takingconsiderabletimeandinvestmentto

adjusttosecuretheireconomicandsocialwellbeingandnaturalresourcebase.

2 Therelevantcommunitywillbeseriouslyimpactedbythemostsignificantimpactsof

climatechangeandextremeclimaticevents,resultingindecliningsocialandeconomic

wellbeingandnaturalresourcehealthovertime.

1 Therelevantcommunitywillbeirreversiblyimpactedbythemostsevereimpactsofclimate

changeandextremeclimaticevents,withbothsocialandeconomicwellbeingandnatural

resourcehealthunlikelytorecoveroverthelongerterm.

It should also be noted that through the regional stakeholder engagement already

established,SGCcancontinuetomonitorsocialresiliencewithintheregionandcontinueto

deliver information to a range of critical regional decisionmaking processes and to other

management agencies and can support collaborative decision making to take strategic

prioritiesforactionandprioritysocialadaptationmeasuresforward.

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6. ResultsThe results show thatwhile the community is resilientoverall, itwill likely suffer possible

shocksassociatedwiththemoresevereimpactsofclimatechange,extremeclimaticevents

andun-relatedmajoreconomicadjustments in theminingandpastoral sectors. It is likely

the regional will need to take some considerable time and investment to adjust and to

securetheireconomicandsocialwellbeingandnaturalresourcebase.

Economicviability:15.5/30

Theregion’seconomicviabilityisvulnerabletoeconomicshocksbutithasthecapacityto

recoverwithtime,thoughperhapsunderatadifferenteconomiclevel.Economicactivityis

dependentontheresourcesectorandwithnomajornewfindsforeseeable,thefocusison

turningtoreprocessingofpreviouslyextractedmaterial.Whilethereisageneraldeclinein

pasturequalityresultinginafragilepastoralindustry,thenaturalenvironmentisavaluable

tourismasset,withpotentiallysomeofthebestfisheriesinAustralia(despiteatension

betweenfisheriesproductionandconservation).Aboomandbustcycleisnormalforthe

regionsotheregionanditspeoplearehistoricallyresilient,recognisingthatstrategic

planningiskey.FuturedevelopmentwilllikelybedrivenbytheFederalGovernment’sWhite

PaperfornorthernAustraliandevelopmentanditisrecognisedthatstateinvolvementiskey

withlongterminfrastructureinitiativessuchasarailwayfromMountIsatoTennantCreek

havingtheabilitytoincreaseeconomicresiliencethroughdiversity,qualityofgrowthin

economicactivityandbybreakingtherelianceonconnectivitytotheeastcoast.

Additionally,thereisaglobaltrendtowardautomationandlessemploymentopportunities

inboththepastoralandresourcesectorwithinnovationssuchasremotemonitoringof

stockanddriverlesstrucks.Potentialemploymentimpactsarecurrentlyexacerbatedby

droughtconditionsandthedownsizinganduncertaintyintheresourcessector.While

CenturyMineisclosingandjobsarebeinglost,thereisaflipsideasinfrastructuresuchas

railportlogisticsisfreedupforothersmalleroperatorstoexpandtheirminingoperations.

Droughtandruraldebtarecontributingtosignificantprofitabilityproblemsinthepastoral

sector.Corporatepastoralgroupsaremovingawayfromhavingregularstaffandare

increasinglybringingintemporarycontractgroups.Managersarereplacedregularlywhich

impactslongertermnaturalresourcemanagement.Thereisanincreasinglyatighter

squeezeonresourceswithjustaskeletoncrewonmanystations.

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Withintheregiontherearesomeemergingopportunitiesforirrigationschemes,some

growthintourismandpotentialvalueaddingthroughmeatprocessing.However,the

regionaleconomyiscurrentlysignificantlylimitedbymineralresourceavailabilityand

commodityprices,yetalsocurrentlypositivelyinfluencedbytheexchangerateofthe

Australiandollar.Significantstressesarealsoemergingregardingoveralllandconditionand

droughtresilience.Thecapacitiesexisttodevelopwaterresources,buthighlevelsof

climaticvariabilitymayaffecteconomicreturns.Newsustainableenergyopportunitiesare

alsoemerging,butremainaffectedbypolicyuncertainty.

Thereexistsasignificanteconomicdisparitybetweenthenorthandsouthoftheregion.

‘MountIsavstherest’representsawell-definedinequalityproblemwithatransienthigh

salariedsectordecreasingoverallregionalstability.NorthernIndigenousandpastoral

communitiesaresignificantlystrainedineconomicterms.Highincomeparticipantsare

reliantontheshortertermresourcesector.Employmentandparticipationinthisregionis

generallyhigh,howevertheworkforcestabilityisdirectlyaffectedbyeconomicstability.

Significantgeographicdisparitiesagainexistinequity,employmentandparticipationterms.

Theregion’smostsignificanteconomicinfrastructureremainshighlyaffectedbytheannual

wetseasonanddirectlyimpactedbyextremeclimaticevents,butinfrastructureis

progressivelyimproving.ItishowevervulnerabletoNaturalDisasterReliefandRecovery

Arrangements(NDRRA)changesinfunding,threateningthecurrentflexibilitytousefunding

forfurtherinfrastructureimprovements.Thecurrentdisasterarrangementsmaysee

insufficientrecoveryofassetmanagementobligations.Thelongertermretentionof

KarumbaPortatcurrentcapacityisalsoatrisk.Propertyscaleassetmanagementand

emergencyservicelinksareimproving.Informationtechnologyisverylimited.

Communityknowledge,aspirationsandcapacity:15.5/25

Theregionhistoricallyhasahighawarenessoftheimpactoftheclimateandnatural

resourcevulnerability,andconsequently,thecommunityislikelyabletoprogresstowards

mitigationandadaptationtoclimatechange.Thecommunityhasalwayshadtodealwith

theeffectsofextremeclimaticeventsandtheconsequentialimpactonnaturalresources

andhencethisisembeddedinpeople’sthinking.Recentdisastersandotherstressessuggest

thatkeyregionalplayersareawareofresourcevulnerabilities.

Limitedservicesmeanahighdepartureofgoodpotentialstudents.Educatedworkers

comingintotheregiontendtobetransient.Thereexistsastrongeducationaldisparity

betweentherichandthepoorintheregion.Experientialknowledgeisnotappreciatedor

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wellrecognisedintheeducationsystemwhileTAFEhaveremovedalltechnologybased

courses.Theneedtotravelforeducationresultsinmorefamiliesleavingtheareaatgrade7

astheneedforsecondaryeducationarises.Familiesthatstaymaysendtheirchildrento

boardingschoolsinBrisbane,oftenfacinghighfeesinanattempttoprovidetheirchildren

withthebestopportunitieswhichisconsideredcompensationfortheirrurallifestyles.

Whilestrongpracticalskillsexistintheregion,professionalskillslargelyneedtobe

imported.Skillsequalityintheregionischallengedbetweenrichandpoor.Educated

workerscomingintotheregionaredifficulttoattractandhardtoretainsotheytendtobe

transient.Attheotherendofthespectrumbackpackerlabourisequallytransientand,

therefore,managerialcapacityandgrowthisnotbeingfostered.Therearelimitedpastoral

opportunitiesforemploymentresultinginfamiliesleavingtheareaforemploymentreasons.

Strongleadershipexistsinvarioussectorsbutisnotwellconnectedacrossdifferentsectors.

Politicalleadershipisquiteconsistentandstrong,buthereisoftenahighturnoverof

administrativepersonnelanditisdifficulttoretainleadershipqualitieswithintheregion.

Thereisstrongculturalcontinuityandresiliencewithindifferentsectorsintheregion.The

region’scultureisstronglyeventsbased,forexamplethe‘DustnDirt’festivalheldannually

atJuliaCreek,whichcanbedisruptedorsuppressedbynegativeimpactssuchasdrought

andeconomicdownturn.Culturalstabilitycanalsocauseresistancetochange.

Communityvitality:18.5/30

PopulationgrowthisgenerallystablewithlessthantheaveragegrowthforQueensland.Age

profilesarepredictableandquitehealthywiththelargestpercentageinthe25–44yearold

bracket,aslightdeclineinthepercentagechildrenandaveryslightincreaseinover65year

olds.Populationitinerancycan,however,leadtosomedemographicstabilityproblems.

Periodsofrecentisolatedpopulationgrowthrelatedtominingsectoropportunitiesare

expectedtochangewiththeclosureofCenturyMine.ThereisamovementofIndigenous

malesoffthelandandintotownwiththedownturninthepastoralindustry.

Thereisgeneralreportingofhighlevelsoflifesatisfaction,withmanyanecdotalstoriesof

familiesthatarriveforshorttermcontractsandthensettleandstay.Converselyspecific

wellbeingissuesofconcernexistinpastoralandIndigenouscommunities.Byinternational

standards,thepeople’shealthintheregionisreasonable,butitsuffersthestandard

disparitiestypicalofremoteareas.Indigenoushealthissuesremainaconcern.MountIsa

hasspecificlead-relatedhealthrisksthatarebeingacteduponbytheminingindustry.

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TherearemajorservicesdisparitiesbeyondMountIsa.Investmentinstrategicservice

integrationislimited.Additionally,communitydevelopmentapproachestoservicedelivery

arelimited.Insomeregionaltowns,localgovernmentsarefundingteachersratherthanlose

attendeesandtheconsequentialnegativeimpact.Theeffectofjoblossequivalencywas

anecdotallydiscussedbytheSGCBoardandthelossof19publicsectorjobsinHughendenis

locallyconsideredtobeequivalenttothelossof8,000jobsinBrisbane.

Ruralserviceinitiativessuchasthe‘heartbus’whichvisitsruralareaswithaheartsurgeon

formonitoringandemergenciescompensatesomewhatforlimitedandfragmentedservice.

Retailisfeelingthecompetitionwithonlinetrading,andinanefforttoretainthevitalityof

smallbusinesses,ColesandWoolworthsareprohibitedfromopeninginMountIsaon

Sundays.TheNQRescuehelicopterandCareFightmergerhasresultedinlongtermfunding

security,whiletheRoyalFlyingDoctorServicecomplementsthehelicopterservice.

Peopleintheregionaregenerallywell-housed,however,housingavailabilitymakes

retentionaproblem.Mortgageissuesandapotentialincreaseinrepossessionsare

anticipatedwithboththedeclineintheresourcesectorandpastoralistswhohaveinvested

inrentalpropertiesinMountIsa.Housingstressandlowhomeownershipremainaproblem

inIndigenouscommunities.Theregionhassufferedaseriesofmajornaturaldisastersover

last10years,andchangingnaturaldisasterresponseandinsurancepoliciesarelikelyto

causeincreasedstress.CrimeratesarenotableinMountIsaandIndigenouscommunities.

Governance:11/20

Commonwealthandstateinvestmentinstrategicapproachestoregionaleconomic,natural

resourceandsocialplanningremainlimited,thoughthestatutoryfoundationsforwater

resourceandvegetationmanagementplanningareinplace.Regional-scalestrategic

planningcapacitiesexistbutarelimitedintheeconomicandNRMsectorsandare

particularlyweakinthesocialsector(particularlybeyondMountIsa).Regionalprogram

deliverycapacitiesaregenerallyweakacrossallsectors.Strategicmonitoringandevaluation

ofkeyregionaleconomic,naturalresourceandsocialservicedeliveryeffortsremainlimited.

Currentcentralisedfederal/statefundingmodelshaveincreasedcompetitivenessand

investmentshorttermismacrossallsectors(economic,socialandnaturalresource),

seriouslyaffectingregionalcapacities.Regionalcapacitiestomaximiseconnectivityacrossall

sectorsarealsoquitelow.Localgovernmentcapacitiesremainstrongrelativetothe

remotenessoftheregion.Regionalinstitutionalculturesregardingtheuseofscienceare

strong,butoverallcoordinatedscienceeffortwithintheregionremainslimited.

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7. StrategicPrioritiesThisresearchworkdidnotspecificallyseektoidentifykeystrategiesforimprovingregional

socialresilienceandconsequentlyclimateresilienceandimprovedapproachestonatural

resourcemanagementinthefaceofclimatechange.Somepreliminaryconceptsandideas

were,however,identifiedthroughtheprocessandarerecordedhereforpotentialfuture

action.Thesekeystrategicopportunitiesincludethefollowing:

Highstrategicprioritiesinclude:

• Improvingfarmdebtandsmallbusinessadjustmentcapacityandservicing

• AcallforanNDRRAover-haulandreformingrelationswiththeinsuranceindustry

• CoreincreasesinregionalstrategiccapacityoftheHumanServicesSector

• Addressingseriouswatersupplystrategydevelopment(foragricultureandtown

consumption)onthebackoftheWaterResourcePlanningprocess

• SecuringinfrastructureprioritiesinGulf,Kennedy-Hann/GregoryHighwaysandGulf

DevelopmentRoadsandexpansion/strengtheningoftheRoadsAlliance

• Takingastrategicfocusoninformationtechnologyservicesreform

• ReformofthenationalregionalNRMsystemandagreaterfocuson

building/supportingthecorecapacityoftraditionalownerinstitutions.

Emergingstrategicpriorities:

• Amajorfocusontargetedmineraldevelopmentandgreaterenergyindependence

andthedevelopmentcoordinationoflocalenergy

• Coastalandinfrastructureriskassessment(flood,stormsurge,emergency

evacuation)andmitigationviaregionalplansandplanningschemes

• Securingimprovedweather/eventforecasting

• Thebuildingofaninformationalliancetounderpinpropertyscaleknowledgeon

floodriskandemergencyresponse

• RecastingtheNationalEnvironmentalSciencesProgram(NESP)researchand

investmentmodeltobetterdeliverplace-basedscienceintheGulf

• ProgressingtheCollaborativeGrowNorthCooperativeResearchCentre(CRC)

consortium

• Furtherexploringecosystemservicemarketopportunitiesintheregion.

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8. PotentialnextstepsThisbenchmarkingexercisesimplyrepresentsafirstcutbuildofregionalprofilesoffour

clustersofimportantattributesofsocialresilience.Itgivestheregionasenseofitsown

resilienceinthefaceofclimatechangeandotherpressures.

ThesebenchmarkscanbesimplyreviewedandupdatedbySGCandthroughongoing

partnershipswithJCU’sCairnsInstituteorotherpreferredsuppliers.Suchreviewprocesses

canmoredeeplyengagetheBoard,SGCstaffandthewidercommunity.

Inviewingregionalsocialresilienceasakeyasset,however,isanopportunityforSGCto

considerthedevelopmentandimplementationofpriorityregionalstrategiesthatmay

increasetheregionalsocialresilienceoftheregionalovertimetoimprovenaturalresource

outcomes.SuchprocessescanbeaccommodatedwithintheongoingregionalNRMcontext.

TheMonsoonalNorthNRMClusterprovidesNRMbroaderrecommendationsforenhancing

resiliencein‘AhandbookforenhancingsocialresilienceintheMonsoonalNorthof

Australia’(MonsoonalNorthNRMCluster,2015).WhenconsideringtheroleofNRM

organisationsthekeymessageisthatadaptivecapacitycanbeenhancedthroughinvolving

peopleintheNRMprocess.Somespecificideasareprovidedtoenhanceregionalresilience:

• RegionalNRMorganisationspracticingactiveadaptivemanagement

• Buildingfurtherlearningandnetworkingopportunitieswithlandholders

• Partneringacrosssectorswiththedeliveryofcommunityservices

• Communicatingwidelyaboutclimatechangeimpactsandadaptationoptions

• Continuingtoassessandimprovetheadaptivecapacitywithintheregion

• InvolvingpeopleingoalsettingMonsoonalNorthNRMCluster,2015,p.20).

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9. AttributeTableSouthernGulfProfile-2015

9.1 AttributeOne:Economicviability

AttributeComponent

PossiblePressure,StateandTrendIndicators

Evidence Conclusions ValueandLogic(1-5)

1.1Diversityandqualityofgrowthineconomicactivity.

• ComparisonofGrossRegionalProductandGrossValueAddbyindustry.

• Economicgrowthrateswithsectoralspecificanalysis.

• Theprincipalindustriesoftheregionaremining,grazingcattleandsheeponlargeleaseholdproperties,fishingandtourism(SouthernGulfCatchments,2005).Pastoralismrepresentsthemostextensivelandusewhileminingisthekeyindustry.Publicsectoremploymentisalsoimportantindrivingstabilitywithintheeconomy.RecreationalandcommercialfishingareimportantwithoneofthebestmanagedfisherieswithinAustralia.Tourismisagrowingindustry(SouthernGulfCatchments,2005).

• Theregion’smaineconomyintheflatlowlyingareaaroundtheGulfisseverelylimitedbytheisolationcausedbytheannualwetseason,thesmallsizeofthehighlydispersedcommunities,andlimitedopportunitiesforeconomicdevelopment(GulfRegionalPlanningAdvisoryCommittee,2000).

• TheNorthWestmineralsregioncontainsQueensland’smostconcentratedmineralsextractionactivity.TheregionincludesMountIsaCityCouncil,CloncurryShireCouncil,McKinlayShireCouncilandBurkeShireCouncil.TheNorthWestmineralsregionhasanumberofwell-establishedbasemetalsandpreciousmetalsminesinoperationproducingsilver,zinc,copper,leadandgold.Theregionalsohaspromisingfundamentalsforthedevelopmentofrareearthandphosphatemining.TheQueenslandeconomyiscurrentlytransitioningfromanhistoricallyhighperiodofresourcesectorinvestmentinnewprojectsduringthepastfiveyearstoasignificantincreaseinresourceproductionandexportoverthepasttwoyears.Queensland’slateststatefinaldemandestimatereportsbusinessinvestmentfellby11.3%intheMarchquarter2015,tobe14.4%lowerovertheyear(QueenslandGovernment,2015).

• MinesontheMountIsainliertothesouthwestoftheareaincludeRedbank,Century,LadyAnnie,MtGordon,LadyLoretta,MtCuthbert,GeorgeFisher,ErnestHenry,MtMargaret,Eloise,MtIsaPb-Zn-AgandMtIsaCu,withStarra,Duchess,OsbourneandCanningtoninthesouth(Geosciences

• Overalldataonregionaldiversityandqualityofgrowthanddebtineconomicactivityisnotverydetailedandrequiresfurtherinvestigation.

• Thereishighrelianceonthenaturalresourcebase,particularlyunstablemineralresourcecommodities,withwateralimitingfactor.

• Remote,flatlyingareaswithlowpopulationlimitsopportunitiesforeconomicexpansion.

• Thepastoralsectorremainsextremelyfragilewiththecurrentdroughtsituation.Highdebtlevelsinthepastoralsectorhavereducedresilienceinthegrazingsectorandassociatedcommunities.

• LivecattleexportsatKarumbaareincreasingwithnewtradeopportunitiesbutthreatenedbytheremovalofMMGcommitmenttodredgingthechannelpostNovember2015.

• MineclosureatCenturyMineisonlypartlymitigatedbynewminesatCloncurry.LackofcertaintyregardingthefutureofGlencorepresentsamajorrisk.However,thefallingvalueoftheAustraliandollar(AUD)isoffsettingthedecliningvalueofexports.

• ThefallingvalueoftheAUDisanticipatedtoalsohelpwiththecompetitivenessofprawnandbeefexports.

• Thereisemergingbutasyetunrealisedpotentialforwater-baseddevelopmentfordroughtproofingarrangementswiththenewallocationofwaterpermitsintheFlindersRiverregion.

2.5Significantdownsizinguncertaintyintheresourcessector.Droughtandruraldebtproblematicinthepastoralsector.Someemergingirrigation,tourismandmeatprocessingvalueadd.

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Australia,2015).• TheRegionalValueofMineralProductionfornorthwest

Queenslandwas$5,759min2010/11(CummingsEconomics,2012).

• Miningandmanufacturing/metalprocessinginSGCtogethergenerate$2billioneachyearandmakeup60%ofthetotalvalueofregionaloutput(SouthernGulfCatchments,2005).

• Theminingsectorisdominatedbyfoursubstantialmultinationalcompanies,theSwissbased‘Xstrata’,Australian‘BHPBilliton’,thenewlyformed‘Zinifex’(oldPasminco)andtheIndian‘AdityaBirla’.Buttherearealsomanyminesacrosstheregionownedasone-offventuresbysmallerexplorationbusinesses(SouthernGulfCatchments,2005).

• ProductionwillendatCenturyMineattheendinNovember2015(MMG,2015).

• MMGisinvestigatingalternativefeedsourcesfortheCenturyMineprocessingplantandfurthernearmineexplorationaswellasthepotentialretreatmentofmaterialsfromthetailingsdam.CenturyMinehasatrainingprogramtoassistwiththetransitionintononminingjobs.

• CuDecoLtdgainedStateGovernmentapprovalforitsRocklandsminein2011,(Cloncurry)withrightstoprocess3milliontonnesoforeayearfor10years.XstratacommencedanopenpitminingprojectnearCloncurryinnorth-westQueenslandwhichwillgenerate300full-timeminingjobsandproduce20milliontonnesofcopperoreover5years(Iminco,2015).CuDECOismovingforwardwithRocklands,despiteaslumpinthepriceofcopper.ThedepreciatingAustraliandollarisprotectingAustraliancopperminersfromthepriceslump(H.Renault,2015).

• AjointventurebetweenAltonaandSichuanRailwayInvestmentGroupwillseektodevelopanopen-pitcopperandgoldmineatLittleEva,whichissituatedwithinitsCloncurryProjectworth$214million(ArthurC,2015).

• BeefproductionfromnorthAustraliahasbeenexpanding.Improvedcattlebreeds,improvedsupplements,fencingandwaterpointshaveledtoexpandingcattlenumbers.With45%ofcattlenumberson40%ofthelandarea,therearenowmorecattlenumbersperhectareinnorthernAustraliathaninthesouth.Cattlenumbersincreased37%fromtheearly1990sto2011.SupportingtheexpansionhasbeengrowingmarketsnearbyinAsia,expandingfromIndonesiaandthePhilippines,toCambodiaandVietnam,andwiththeFreeTradeAgreementopeningupinChina.QueenslandGulfregioncapacityis2.7m

• ThediversificationofagricultureintheneighbouringGilbertRiverregionistoincludecropping,however,maydecreasethevulnerabilityoftheagriculturalsectorandincreasetheneedforlabourwhichmaybenefitFlindersandRichmondShires(Petheram,Watson,&Stone,2013).

• ArecentstudyusedacomputermodeltoexaminescenariosofvarioussupplyanddemandshiftsaswellasimpactsofclimatechangeonthedevelopmentofirrigatedagricultureinremoteNorthwestQueensland.Noclearwelfaregainswerepredictedfromirrigationdevelopment(Wittwer&Banerjee,2014).

• ProposalsforabattoirsinCloncurry,HughendenandKarumbaarebecominginvestmentreadyandmayincreaseprocessingcapacity.

• PotentialimprovementsintourismandrecreationactivitiesonthebackofimprovedroadsinfrastructurealongTheSavannahWay.Growthofregionalannualevents(e.g.,DustnDirtfestival).

• Somecattlefarmersareopeningtheirlandfortourismandaccommodationtoprofittheirlandinnewways.

• Amulti-speciesbio-economicandstochasticmodelexaminedtheAustralianNorthernPrawnFisheryandfoundthatthecurrentstrategiesdiversifyingcatchacrosssubregionsrequiresacompromisebetweenexpectedperformanceandrisk.Also,increasingfleetsizeincurrenteconomicconditionswillincreaseexpectedperformanceandvariability(Gourguetetal.,2014).

• CurrentMarineReservedeclarationscouldreduceviabilityandcapacityincommercialfisheries,reducingresilienceinthatsector.

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headofcattleandaturnoff(production)of0.6mhead.(CummingsEconomics,2015).

• In2012theAustralianandQldGovernmentsandtheCSIROidentifiedthepotentialtofurthergrowanddiversifythenorthernQldbeefindustryasanational/statepriorityintheNorthQldIrrigatedAgricultureStrategyworth$10million.Thestrategyfocusesonidentifyingandexpandingwatercapture/storage,commercialviabilityofirrigatedagricultureandotherservicesandinfrastructure(OfficeofNorthernAustralia,2013).

• ValueofcattleproductionatthefarmgateinNWQLDwas$353.1m(CummingsEconomics,2010).Northernbeefproducersarefacinganumberofchallengesincludingincreasingandunsustainabledebtlevels,adeclineinpropertyvaluesandunfavourableseasonalconditions(PPBAdvisory,2014).

• TotalcattleexportsoutofKarumbaportin2014wasmorethan20,000,whichwasmorethandoublethe2013exportnumbers(Renault,2014).

• ThemainfisheryintheGulfistheNorthernPrawnFishery,themostvaluablesinglegearfisherymanagedbytheCommonwealth($94.8min2010-11)extendingacrossnorthernAustralia(ABARES,2015).

• Theprawningindustry(basedoutofKarumba)iswortha$40mtothegulf,howeverthedollarreturntothecommunityislowbecauseoftheuseofmothershipsforsupplyingandprocessingintheGulfratherthaninKarumba(GulfRegionalPlanningAdvisoryCommittee,2000).

• EstimatedvalueoffisheriesproductionfortheNWQLDfor‘Northernprawn’is$53mand160jobsand‘othergulfnetandprawn’$15,n100jobs(CummingsEconomics,2010).

• InthelastdecadethevalueofQld’swildcaughtfisheriesproductshasdeclinedby35%withprawnsreducingby43%duetothehighvalueoftheAUD$andcompetitionfromimportedprawns(ABARES,2015).

• Historically,cropproductioninthenorthernQueenslandregionhasbeenalongthetropicalcoastandTablelands.ThereisamajortrendtoexpansionwestintotheGulfandnorthintothePeninsula(CummingsEconomics,2015).

• TheIntegratedFoodandEnergyDevelopments(IFED)schemebasedonharvestingfloodflowsfromtheEinasleighandEtheridgeRiversisproposinglargeareasofsugarandbeefproductionincludingasugarmillandmeatworksinaschemeinvolvinganinvestmentof$1.9bnandannualoutputofover

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$800millionayear(CummingsEconomics,2015).• TheFlinderscatchmenthasthepotentialtosupportirrigated

agriculturaldevelopment(10,000to20,000ha)approachingthescaleoftheOrdRiverIrrigationAreain70–80%oftheyears.Irrigationonthisscalewouldbebasedonwaterstoredonfarmdams,pumpedfromtheriverorcapturedasoverlandflowduringfloodevents,eitherwidelydistributedthroughoutthecatchmentorinconcentratedareas(CSIRO,2013).

• TheFlinderscatchmentirrigationschemewouldvarysignificantlyfromyeartoyearandmaynotbepossibleindryyearschallengingthecommercialviability.Highcapitalcostsofonfarmdamsandlanddevelopment($10,000perhaofirrigatedland)wouldbeprohibitivetofarmers.Commercialreturnswerepossiblefrominvestmentbutrequiredconsistencyofwatersupplywhichwouldbechallenging(CSIRO,2013).

• TheupdatedGulfWaterResourcePlanwhichwillallowforthereleaseof700,000megalitresforirrigatedfarmingcoveringeightriversinQueensland'sGulfCountryacross315,000squarekilometres.ThemaintwocatchmentsaretheFlindersandGilbertRiver,239,000megalitresfortheFlinderssoonopentotender(HaileyRenault,2015).

• TheGulfcountryisapopulardestinationforfishersfromotherQLDregionaswellasfishingtouristsfromNSW&Victoria(ABARES,2015).

• Tourismisgrowingwithincreasedappreciationofthewildernessvaluesandwillmakeanincreasinglyimportantcontributiontotheeconomybutthisgrowthwillalsocreatechallenges.Mostofthesetouristsareself-sufficient,travelincampervansandrelyoncookingforthemselves,spendlittleonaccommodationorontraditionaltouristactivitiesorsouvenirsandtheirmajoractivityisfishingwheretheybringtheirownboatsandequipment(SouthernGulfCatchments,2005).

• Inthe2000sitwasestimatedthatbetween8,000and10,000touristsvisitedtheregionannuallytopartakeinecotourismactivitiesincludingcamping,birdwatching,fossicking,andvisitingindigenous/non-indigenousculturalheritagesites(GulfRegionalPlanningAdvisoryCommittee,2000).

• TheSavannahWayisa‘adventure’drivefromCairnstoBroomethatgoesthroughtheSouthernGulffromNormantontoBurkeTownandonintotheNorthernTerritory(Gray,2010;SavannahWay,2014);(SavannahWay,2014).

• TheDirtandDustFestivalisheldannuallyatJuliaCreek.First

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heldin1994withjust15athletesthetriathlonnowhas4,000peopleattending(DirtnDustFestival,2014).

• TheMorningGloryFestivaltakespaceinSeptembereachyearinBurketownincludingarodeo,campdraft,music,markets,seminarsphotographycompetitions,tours,workshops.

• TheWorldBarramundiFishingChampionshipsareheldinBurketowneachEaster.

• HughendenandRichmondsitonthe‘DinosaurTrail’,RiversleighisaninternationallyrenownedfossillocationwithamuseumatJuliaCreek.

1.2Vulnerabilityofnaturalandenergyresourcebase.

• Comparativemeasureofnaturalresourcedependency.

• Measuresofenergysecurityanddiversity.

• Measuresoffoodsecurityanddiversity.

• The‘moreforless’globalmegatrendrevealsthatmanyoftheworldslimitedsuppliesofnaturalresourcesarebeingdepleted.Likewiseunderthe‘going,going,gone’megatrendmanyoftheworld’snaturalhabitats,plantspeciesandanimalspeciesareindeclineoratriskofextinction(Hajkowicz,Cook,&Littleboy,2012).

• AlloftheSGCdrainagedivision’swetlandsareimportantforecologicalreasonsorbecausetheyhavehistoricalsignificanceorhighculturalvalue,particularlytoIndigenouspeople,oracombinationofthesereasons(CSIRO,2009).

• Theregionincludesarangeofnationalparks,resourcereserves,fishhabitatreserves,wetlandreserves,naturerefuges,andlandsandsiteslistedontheNationalEstateRegisterandtheWorldHeritageRegister(SouthernGulfCatchmentsNRM,2015).

• NaturalresourcesacrosstheMonsoonalNortharepredominantlyusedforgrazing,agriculture,fishing,horticultureandminingandarehighlysensitivetochangesintemperatureandrainfall.Changesinclimate,includingaveragetemperatures,rainfallandseasonalweatherpatternwillacttopushthesenaturalresourcesystemstowardstheirthresholdsoftolerance,threateningthefutureofindustriesandcommunitiesthatdependonthem(Marshalletal.,2015).

• IntheMonsoonalNorthonlyasmallproportionoflandholdersarewellpreparedforclimatechallenges.Thosethatarenotsufficientlypreparedriskexperiencingsignificantsocialandeconomicimpactsandwillacceleratesoildegradationprocesses,compromisingthefutureproductivityoftheregion(Marshalletal.,2015).

• Keydriversincreasingnaturalresourcevulnerabilitiesfortheregionweregrazingpressure,greaterclimaticvariability(longerdryseasonandheatwaveswithincreasedbushfireandperiodicflooding),erosion,feralanimalsandweeds(SouthernGulfCatchmentsNRM,2015).

• Economically,theregionisextremelydependentonmineralresourceswithalimitedlifecycle,withmanyresourcesnearingdepletion.

• Energysecurityremainsvulnerableduetolackofsourcedevelopmentandlocalgeneration.Theregionaleconomyisdependentonfossilfuelstransportedviaflood-vulnerableroads.Currentfuelcostsaresteadybutpriceincreasescouldshockthesystem.

• InaSGCphonesurveythelocalgovernmentsectoragreedthatalternativeenergyprojectsneedtobeprogressesandthattheyareaviableoptionforthecommunitiesintheregion(Connor,2014).

• Strategicuseofabundantsustainableenergyresourcesisstartingtomoveforward.ThisislikelytoaccelerateiftheFederalGovernmentpolicyimprovescertainty.

• Theprimaryindustrysectorhasbeenandisprovidingstabilitytotheregionaleconomy,however,thissector’sresourcebaseisvulnerabletochangeandisimpacteduponimmenselybysevereweatherwhich,overthepastnumberofyears,hasbeenslowertorecoverandhasresultedinanincreaseinfarmdebt.

• Ofparticularconcernisthatdegradationprocesseswithintheregionareespeciallyacceleratedduringdroughtperiods,especiallyonthegrazinglands.Duringdroughtsituations,whichmaybecome

2.5Regionaleconomyistimelimitedbymineralresourceavailability.Significantstressesareemergingregardinglandconditionanddroughtresilience.Capacitiesexisttodevelopwaterresources,buthighvariabilitiesaffecteconomicreturns.

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• MuchoftheregiondrainingintotheGulfcomprisesfloodplainsandisgenerallylow-lying,resultingintidalfloodingduringthewetseason.Almostallrainfallfallsintwoorthreemonthsoftheyear(CSIRO,2009).

• Rainfalldecreasesrapidlyawayfromthenortherncoast.Averagewet-seasonrainfallrangesbetween300mminthesouthto1800mminthenorthwithmoderate-to-highannualvariability.Potentialevapotranspirationratesarehighyear-round.Annually,rainfallisusuallylessthanpotentialevapotranspiration,sothedrainagedivisionmaybedescribedaswater-limited(CSIRO,2009).

• Potentialevapotranspirationincreasesunderallfutureclimatescenarios,possiblyupto4%relativetothehistoricalclimate.Becauseoftheextremelyhighevaporationrates,mostdevelopmentwillrequirewaterstoragesthatarelargeenoughtosupplywaterformanyyears.Thelowgradientsandflatlandscapedonotprovideforgoodsurfacewaterstorage,exceptintheheadwaterswhererainfallislower;sostorageshavetobelargeenoughtowithstandlongperiodsofbelow-averagerainfall(CSIRO,2009).

• WateriscurrentlythesinglelargestimpedimenttodevelopmentinNorthernAustralia(GulfSavannahDevelopment,2014).

• TheGreatArtesianBasinrechargesveryslowlyandtakesalongtimetorecoverfromwaterextraction(Herczeg&Love,2007citedinCrowley,2015)Overextractionofsurfaceandgroundwaterthreatenswater’svalue(SouthernGulfCatchments,2005).

• WateravailabilityisseasonalthoughpotentialfortargetedwaterdevelopmentschemesunderthenorthQueenslandIrrigationStrategy.Harvestedwaterisinlimitedsupplyduringthedryseasonduetohighevaporationrates(Taylor,Larson,Stoeckl,&Carson,2011).

• Projectedincreasesintemperatureandevaporationrates(Moiseetal.,2015)willincreasetheperiodstockareexposedtoheatstressandreducethedistancestheycantraveltowatercitedin(Howden,2008citedinCrowley,2015).

• In2000thevalueofbeefproductionlossescausedbyPricklyAcacia,RubberVineandMesquitewas$3.17m.ThisfigurewouldhavebeendoublewithouttheQLDGov.SWEEPcampaign(StrategicWeedEradicationandEducationProgram)(Martin&vanKlinken,2006citedinCrowley,2015).

• Manyweedsareexpectedtoflourishunderclimatechange,e.g.,Pricklyacaciaoccupiesafractionofitspotentialrangein

more‘normal’,ifstockingratesaretoohighattheonsetofdrought,soilsustainabilitywillbediminishedandtheproductivityoffutureyearswillbeimpacted.Intheseinstancesitisdifficultforcattleproducerstodemonstrateresilienceandadaptationtoclimatechange(Marshalletal.,2015).

• Opportunitiesexisttoestablishaneconomicmarketinenvironmentalandlandmanagementservices.

• Foodsecurityisvulnerableandtheregionisanetimporter.ThismaybemitigatedbytheIFEDscheme.Moreextremeeventswithfloodingwillmakecommunitiesmorevulnerablebasedoncurrentlimitedtransportation.

• Currently,theregionandspecificallytheagriculturalsector,isvulnerabletochangesinwateravailability,whichisalreadylimitedduringthedryseason.NewwaterallocationshavebeenreleasedfortheFlindersRiver.

• TheSouthernGulf’spastoralandtourismsectorstabilitycouldbelimitedbyanincreaseinsevereweathereventsandchangingweather.

• Pastoralindustryresiliencewillcontinuetobenefitfromcontinuedsupportforextensionprogramsandbestpracticeframeworks(Crowley,2015).

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NorthernAustralia(Kriticosetal.,2003citedinCrowley,2015).

• Itisunclearifclimatechangewillinfluencethepestimpactsofdingoesorkangaroosandwallabies(Crowley,2015).

• Climatechangeislikelytoincreasethecostofmanagementofparasitessuchasticks,andsomediseasesfoundincattlesuchasBluetongue,whichisexpectedtoincreasewithrisingtemperaturesasitshostmosquitoesarefavouredbywarmwinters(Ward1994;Purseetal.,2005citedinCrowley,2015).

• Floodingin2010ledtoextensivepasturedeathinlow-lyingareas(personalcommunicationwithSGC20/10/2015).

• WhilemostGulffisherieshavebeenprogressingtowardssustainability,thereissignificantcompetitionwithnationalMarineProtectedAreaobjectives.

• Humanactivitiescreateseriousimpactsontheintegrityandconservationofriversystemsandwetlands.Touristsareamajorsourceofthoseimpactsonwaterinkeyareas.

• FreshwatersystemsnearCenturyMinearebelievedtobedeclininginbothqualityandquantityofwaterduetoimpactsofthemine.TraditionalOwnersoftheregionexplainthatwaterflowsfromthespringarelowerthanbefore.SimilarissueswereraisedfortheSpearCreekandParooRivernearMountIsa(SouthernGulfCatchments,2005).WatershortageswereexperiencedatCloncurryinearly2014(Connor,2014).

• Theprimarythreatstotheregion’slandandnaturalresourcesincludepestplantsandwoodyweeds,unsustainablegrazingpracticesandlowstandardsofwastemanagement.Humanactivities(inparticulartourists)andoverextractionthreatenwaterresources.Airqualityisimpairedbylevelsofheavymetals,dust,smokeandfumes.Feralanimalsandweedsthreatenbiodiversityandoverfishingthreatenfishstocks(SouthernGulfCatchments,2005).

• ConservingwaterisahighpriorityforMountIsaandCamooweal.Thestandardallocationforaprivateresidenceis950KL(950,000litres)peryear-900KLforuseonyourpropertyand50KLtomaintainthenaturestrip.WaterrestrictionscameintoeffectinMay2015(level1atCamoowealandlevel2atMountIsa)(MountIsaCityCouncil,2015).

• Significantwaterusewould,inthedownstreamenvironment,amplifytheenvironmentalandsocialchallengeassociatedwithdryyearsandwouldhaveimpactsoncommercialandrecreationalfishingcatches(CSIRO,2013).

• Climatechangeisnotexpectedtodirectlyaffectfire

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frequency,butthereisconfidencethatfirebehaviourwillbecomemoreextreme(Moiseetal.,2015).

• OnesavannaburningprojectistakingplaceatStirlingLotusVale(MyCarbonFarming,2015).

• Impactsofclimatechangeonthenorthernpastoralindustryarenegativebutcanbemitigatedbyimprovingresiliencethroughbestpracticeandarealreadyincorporatedintoextensionprograms(Crowley,2015).

• InMountIsacontaminantfromsmelteroperationshavepollutedtheatmosphere,soilandwater(Taylor,Mackay,Hudson-Edwards,&Holz,2010).

• Therearesignificantnewsolaractivitiesintheregion.ARENArecentlyannounced$4.6millionfora$11.9millionrenewableenergyprojectforDoomadgeewhileErgonEnergyisundertakinga1MWexpansionoftheawardwinningDoomadgeeSolarFarm(100%solardisplacingsome528,000litresofdieselperyear(AustralianRenewableEnergyAgency(ARENA),2014).

• InAugust2015Ergonsoughtexpressionsofinterestforthesupplyof150megawattsofelectricityfromrenewablesources–that’sequivalenttothepowerrequirementsofacitythesizeofMackayinnorthQueensland(https://www.ergon.com.au/about-us/news-hub/talking-energy/business/expressions-of-interest-open-for-large-scale-renewable-energy-projects).

• InDecember2014theDiamantinaPowerStation(DPS)openedinMountIsa:amodernhighefficiencypowerstationcomprising242megawattpowergenerationfromcombinedcyclegasturbines,with60megawattbackuppowersupplyavailablefromtheLeichhardtPowerStationopencyclefacility.ThishasdeliveredatotalenergysolutiontomeetthecurrentandfutureneedsofNorthWestQueensland’sproductiveminingregion.DPSrepresentsacleanersourceofpowergenerationforMountIsawithloweremissionsandhigherplantefficienciesthantraditionalcoalfiredpowerplants(DiamentinaPowerStation,2014).

• TherearesignificantgasreservesintheGulf,particularlyintheBurketownarea(GulfSavannahDevelopment,2014).TherearealsofiverenewableenergyprojectsunderwayintheGulfSavannah:thefirststageoftheErgonEnergyDoomadgeeSolarFarm,furtherdevelopmentoftheNormantonSolarFarm,Infigen’sForsaythWindFarm,abio-energyplantaspartoftheproposedEIAP,andaproposedsolarfarminGregorytownship(GulfEnergyGroup,2013).

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• Armourwasdrilling(in2013)theEgilabria2wellnearBurketown,northofMountIsa.TheEgilabria2wellisspecificallydesignedtotesttheLawnShaleformation,fromwhichstronggasshows.ArmouristargetingFebruary2016forthedeliveryoffirstgasfromArmour’snorthQueenslandprojectareaintotheproposedNORGASinfrastructure(ArmourEnergyLimited,2013).

• Stages1and2oftheNorthernAreaGasScheme(NORGAS)projectrequiretheconstructionof350kmofnewgastransmissionpipelinetotransportupto130Petajoulesperannum(PJ/a)ofgastoMountIsafromtheprojectareasouthofBurketown(ArmourEnergyLimited,2013).

1.3Inclusivenessandeconomicfairness/equity.

• Individualincome(analysedbyage,educationlevel,industryandoccupation).

• Householdincome(analysedbyfamilycomposition,tenuretypeandlowincomehouseholds).

• CommunitiesintheGulfregionaregenerallycharacterisedbyhighwelfarereliance,lowskilllevels,loweducation,lowincome,lowlevelsofhomeownershipandapproximately55%Indigenouspopulation(CentreforSocialResponsibilityinMining,2014).

• ThemediantotalpersonalincomeintheSouthernGulfin2011was$40,700,comparedtoamedianof$30,524inQueenslandasawhole.MountIsahadthehighestpersonalincomeat$49,504.OverallinSGC24%ofpeopleareinthemostdisadvantagedquintile.TheregionofDoomadgeehasaparticularlylowmedianincomeof14,560,with65%ofpeopleinthemostdisadvantagedquintile(QueenslandGovernmentStatistician'sOffice,2015).

• ThemediantotalfamilyincomeintheSouthernGulfin2011was$100,972(comparedtoQueensland’smedialtotalfamilyincomeof$75,556),with10.6%offamiliesearninglessthan$31,200peryear.Doomadgeehad41%andMountIsa7.5%inthelowestquintile(QueenslandGovernmentStatistician'sOffice,2015).

• Some7,196persons(or21.7%)intheregionareIndigenous,comparedto3.6%inQld.Withintheregion,Doomadgee(S)LocalGovernmentArea(LGA)hadthelargestpercentageofIndigenouspersonswith92.0%(QueenslandGovernmentStatisticiansOffice,October2015)

• Some13,160persons(or52.2%)hadanon-schoolqualification.In2011intheregion,MountIsa(C)LGAhadthelargestpercentageofpersonswithanon-schoolqualificationwith56.7%comparedwithDoomadgeewith19.5%andQld54.2%(QueenslandGovernmentStatistician'sOffice,2015).

• IntheSouthernGulfin2011,5.0%ofpersonswereintheleastdisadvantagedquintilewith26.5%inthemostdisadvantagedquintile,butDoomadgeehad97.8%andCarpentaria87.4%.

• ThereisasignificanteconomicdisparitybetweenNorthandSouthwithintheregion.TheregionisdividedintotheSavannahGulfDevelopmentregionwithverylowincomesandtheMITEZcorridorwithmorevariabilityinincome–withtheminingsectorwellremunerated.

• ThismaymeanthatmanyresidentsoftheSavannahGulfDevelopmentregionarelivingbelowtheAustralianpovertyline,whichisanincomeof$234/week.

• Theregionhassomevulnerablepopulations,particularlywithbothhighIndigenousandeconomicallydisadvantagedpopulations,includingadebt-ladenfarmingsector.

• Therearefewopportunitiesorfacilitieswithintheregion(outsideMountIsa)forresidentstoexpandtheirskill-base,withmosthavingtotraveltootherregionsparticularlytogainhighereducation.

• Smallbusinessintheregiongenerallyhasalowerpercapitaincomethanelsewhere.

• Theregion’srelativelystablepopulationprovidesagoodopportunityforbuildinglongtermeconomicknowledgeandawareness.

• Overall,thereareadditionalvulnerabilitiesassociatedwithmajorclimaticevents(particularlyfloods).

2.5Thereisasignificanteconomicdisparitybetweenthenorthandsouth.Indigenousandpastoralcommunitiesaresignificantlystrainedineconomicterms.Highincomeparticipantsarereliantontheshortertermresourcesector.

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Withintheregion,MountIsa(C)LGAhadthelargestpercentageofpersonsintheleastdisadvantagedquintilewith7.8%referencefigureforQueenslandare20.0%inleastdisadvantagedquintileand20.0%inmostdisadvantagedquintile(QueenslandGovernmentStatistician'sOffice,2015).

• In2006,19.3%ofpersonswereresidingatadifferentaddressoneyearearlier(comparedwith19.7%acrossQueensland)and42.6%wereatadifferentaddressfiveyearsearliercomparedwith47.6%acrossQueensland(QueenslandGovernmentStatistician'sOffice,2015).

• Government-drivenIndigenouscommunitysupportprogramssuchastheCommonwealthJobsProgramareasignificantsourceofadditionalincomeintheSouthernGulf.

• Genderbalanceisaffectedbyahighproportionofmalesshiftingintominingworkinandbeyondtheregion.

• Thereareknownhighlevelsofilliteracyandaffordabilityaffectsretentionintheregion.

1.4Workforceparticipationandemployment.

• Regionalemploymentparticipationratesandtrendsandemploymentbyindustry.

• Miningemploys32%ofthepopulationwhile7.7%areemployedintheagriculture,forestryandfishingindustry(QueenslandGovernmentStatistician'sOffice,2015).Alargeproportionoftheworkforceisfly-in-fly-outworkerssourcedexogenouslytotheregion(Tayloretal.,2011).

• Regionalemploymentbyindustrybasedon2011Censusdata:wasmetaloremining(26.3%),agriculture(7.1%),preschoolandschooleducation(5.0%),publicadministration(4.9%)andExplorationandotherminingsupportservices(3.2%)(QueenslandGovernmentStatistician'sOffice,2015).

• Between2001and2011intheSGCregion,theshareofpersonsemployedintheminingindustryincreasedfrom17.1%to25.6%(QueenslandGovernmentStatistician'sOffice,2015).

• InMountIsa,70%ofworkingagepeopleareinthelabourforce.IntheSouthernGulfthisfigurefallstolessthan50%(Larson&Alexandridis,citedinTayloretal.,2011).

• AsofMay2015,CenturyMine’sworkforcenumbered750people,approximately20%ofwhomareIndigenouspeoplewhohaveconnectionstotheLowerGulf.Bytheendof2015,CenturyMine’sworkforceisexpectedtobelessthan160people(MMG,2015).

• Rocklandsemploys125workersonsiteandwhenfullyoperational,thisnumberwillswellto185(Iminco,2015).LittleEvaisexpectedtocreate280newjobs(Arthur,2015).

• Snapshot-TheNorthWestStarSaturday17October2015outlinedjobcutsatGeorgeFishermineof466redundancies,

• TherearesignificantdifferentialsbetweenIndigenousandnon-Indigenousandgeographicemploymentandparticipationrateswiththeregion.TheQldGovernment’sFIFOpanelhasfaceddifficultiesinobtainingcurrentdataonthenon-residentworkforcenumbersintheNorth-Westregion.Themostrecentcredibledatawerecollectedin2007.Thereisaclearneedformorecomprehensivedatacollectionontheminingindustryworkforceinthisregion.WorkforcesatexistingoperationsnearMountIsaandCloncurryhavetraditionallyhadpredominantlyresidentworkforces.Duringconsultationsthepanelwasadvisedbyresourcecompaniesthattherehasbeenatrendtowardsahigherproportionofnon-residentworkersatnewprojects(QueenslandGovernment,2015).

• Pastoralandtourismindustryemploymenthasbeenstronglyaffectedbycyclones(flooding)anddebt.

• Theincreasedcoststoindustryassociatedwithdisasterrecoverylimitstheircapacitytoemploy,expandorgrow.

• Itisexpectedthattherewillbefew

3.0Employmentandparticipationinthisregionisgenerallyhigh.Workforcestabilityisaffectedbyeconomicstability.Significantgeographicdisparitiesexist.

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mitigatedbyincreaseatDugaldmineof‘afewhundred’jobs.RobKatterwaspushingtoretainlocalemployeesandforcutstobeforFIFOworkers.

• TheIFEDschemespromisetoaddthousandsofdirectjobsintheregionandtransformtheeconomyoftheGulfSavannahDevelopmentregion(CummingsEconomics,2015).

• Between2001and2011,theoverallunemploymentrateintheSGCregiondecreasedfrom5.2%to4.3(QueenslandGovernmentStatistician'sOffice,2015).

• Under-employmentisnotwellreflectedinthefiguresandyouthemploymentremainsoverlyhigh(QueenslandGovernmentStatistician'sOffice,2015).

• AboriginalpeopleintheShiresofCloncurryandMountIsalamentedthelimitedemploymentopportunitiesinruralareas(Pearce,Eagle,Low,&Schurmann,2015).

changestotheunemploymentrateorredeploymentofworkforceinresponsetoclimatechangebecauseofchangestoprecipitationandseasonalemploymentopportunities.

• ClosureoftheCenturyMineandGlencoredownturnislikelytohavesignificantregionalimpactsonlocalworkforceparticipation(Everinghametal.,2013)butthismaybepartlymitigatedbynewminingoperationsopeningupintheregion.

• Tourismisexpectedtogrowbutbedisturbedbyfloodevents.

1.5Economicconfidence.

• Consumerconfidence.• Investorconfidence.• Smallbusiness

confidence.

• The‘silkhighway’globalmegatrendrevealsthepowerhousesofthenewworldeconomyareChinaandIndia.Thiseconomicshiftwillbuildnewexportmarkets,traderelations,businessmodelsandculturaltiesforAustralia.Tourists,fundsandideaswillincreasinglyflowoutofAsiancountriesandintoAustralia’seconomyandsociety(Hajkowiczetal.,2012).

• MountIsatoTownsvilleEconomicZone(MITEZ)hasastrategiccampaigntopromoteeconomicgrowthandhaspreparedmarketingmaterialfortheshirecouncilswithinthedevelopmentcorridorpromotinggrowthandinvestment(MITEZ,2015).

• ProjectsidentifiedbyMITEZincludetheFlindersRiverAgriculturalPrecinct(FRAP),ashovelreadyO’ConnellCreekOffstreamWaterStorageFacility,newminingoperations,abattoirsatCloncurryandHughenden(MITEZ,2015).

• Liveexportofcattlecontinuestogrownowtheliveexportbanshavebeenlifted(GulfSavannahDevelopment,2014).

• TheMountIsaMayordeclaresLittleEvaisavoteofconfidenceinthenorth-westmineralsprovince(ArthurC,2015).

• The2014CSIROstudyLivestockLogisticsstatesanabattoiratHughendenwouldgivea65%reductioninlivestocktransportcostscomparedtotransportingcattletoeastcoastplantsforliveexport.FlindersShireCouncilundertookascopingstudyinJuly2014andapre-feasibilitystudyinFebruary2015forabeefprocessingfacility.Futurestartupfeedlotsandimprovedpasturessupportedbylocalirrigationbusinessesareneededtoincreasethebeefproducedandtherangeofpotentialmarkets(FlindersShireCouncil,2015).

• Localbusinessconfidenceisgenerallylowinthepastoralindustry,andatthispointinthecycle,notsobuoyantintheminingsector.

• In2014-15farmcashincomeswerepredictedtoriseinQldmainlybecauseofhigherbeefcattleprices.In2013-14expansionofdroughtconditionsresultedina20%increaseintheaveragenumberofcattlesoldperfarmbyQldbeefindustryfarms.Pricesforcattleweredownwhileexpenditurewasup,thecostoffodderalmostdoubled,fuelandinterestpaymentsincreased.

• Theaveragefarmcashincomeforbeefindustrydeclinedtoaverage$68,200afarm(ABARES,2015).

• MITEZpromotionalmaterialsandshovelreadyprojectsarereadyforinvestmentwhenthefundamentalsareright.

• Increasedflightstotheregionindicateincreasedeconomicactivityintourismormining.

2.0Significantretreatanduncertaintyintheminingsector.Highlevelsofdebtbutsomeemergingopportunityinthepastoralsector.Someemergingbutsmallintensificationopportunities.

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• Currentenergyinvestorsareconsideringdown-sizingormovingoperationsduetothemonopolyenvironmentpresentinQueensland(GulfSavannahDevelopment,2014).

• PPBAdvisoryestimatesthatfollowingareturnofanormalwetseasoninnorthernAustralia,itwouldbe12to18monthsbeforeproducerswouldbeinapositiontohavecattleforsaleinordertogeneratecashflow,andatleast3yearsbeforenumbersreachcommerciallyviablelevels.Whenarecoverycomesintheformofabreakintheseason,thiswillinevitablyleadtoincreaseddemandforbreedingcowswhichwillsendmarketpriceshigherimpactingonrestockingcapability.Thispricevolatilityislikelytobegreaterthanoriginallyanticipatedduetoarecentescalationindestocking.Thesupplyofbreedingcowsorpregnantfemaleswillbesubstantiallylimited,withfinanciersreluctanttofundpurchaseswithoutequityinrealpropertyatcurrentmarketvaluesorcertaintyofcashflow(PPBAdvisory,2014).

• Thereisimprovedexpertanalysisoffarmingsectorriskdrawingoninformationaboutlevelsofinvestmentfromthebanks,populationgrowthisneeded.

• Investmentconfidencewithinthepastoralandfishingsectorsremainsverylowbecauseofsignificantdebtburdensandconservationinitiativesinthefishingsector.ThismatchesaGulf/CapefarmcashincomedeclinesforinlandQldbroadacrefarms,decliningfromanestimatedaverageof$84,500perfarmin2011–12toanaverageof$55,000perfarmin2012–13(ABARES,2014b,p.17).

• Some58.7%ofbusinesseshavebeenextremelyaffectedbythechangestofinancialarrangementsmadebybanksposttheLiveExportBan,with67.4%sayingthatthiswillaffecttheirviabilityintothefuture(Ikin,2014).

• TheFTAwithChinain2015willimpactontwopartsofthebeefsupplychain–onfarmandprocessing.GiventherecentchallengesintheAustralianbeefsectortheremaywellbeanopportunityfordebtreduction,investmentininnovation,acceleratingfarmsuccessionplans,andsomewelcometailwindsforthosegrazierslookingtoexpandtheirbusiness(Deloitte,2015).

• Prawnwildcatchshowedthelargestdeclineintherealvalueofproductioninoutbackfisheriesoverthepastdecade,reducingby$51millionand$58millionrespectively.Alargeproportionisexportedandtheappreciationoftheexchangeratesince2000–01hashadasignificanteffectonthevalueofexportsoftheseproducts.Competitionfromimportedprawns

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inthedomesticmarkethasalsoplacedsignificantdownwardpressureonpricesinrecentyears(ABARES,2014a,p.13).

• Thereareincreasinglevelsofinterest(nationalandinternational)ininvestmentintheregioninwaterandminingresourcedevelopmentopportunities,thoughtheresourcessectoriscurrentlyweakening.

• RegionalExpress(Rex)AirlineshasintroducedextraflightsbetweenMountIsaandCairnsduetoincreasingdemandfortheservice.ThisincludesincreasedservicetoMorningtonIsland,DoomadgeeandNormanton.TheincreasedflightswereasaresponsetothegrowingnumberofpassengerstravellingthroughouttheGulf(Margolis,2015).

1.6Vulnerabilityofkeyeconomicinfrastructureassets.

• Stabilityandstrengthofeconomicinfrastructure.

• Datarewhetherclimatechangewillstresskeyinfrastructureassetsofeconomicimportance.

• TheMountIsatoTownsvillecorridoristhestrategiclinkbetweentheNorthWestQueenslandMineralsProvinceandtheprocessingandexportportfacilitiesinTownsvilleandAbbotPoint.Itisanimportanteconomiclink,supportingtheexportof$15billionworthofproductperannum.TheNorthQueenslandResourcesSupplyChain(NQRSC)Projectaimstoimprovetheefficiencyandproductivityofthesupplychainbybettercoordinationamongstinfrastructureowners,operatorsandcurrentandfutureuserstomanagethemovementoffreightalongthiseconomicallyimportantcorridor(NQRSCPSteeringCommittee,2013).

• Thefinal100kmunsealedsectionatLyndJunctionoftheHannHighway,adirectroadroutetoMelbourneandAdelaide,isduetobesealed.ThedirectnorthsouthrouteviatheHannHighwaylinkthroughHughenden,Barcaldine,Charleville,Cobar,GriffithtoMelbourne,cutsoffapproximately800kmcomparedtothecoastalroutes(CummingsEconomics,2015).

• Williamsetal.concludedthat“Theeffectofclimatechangeonthesavannas[i.e.theMonsoonalNorth]mayappearrelativelysmallcomparedwithotherpartsofAustraliawherealtitudinalgradientsarestrong,andtopographiccomplexityishigh”(Williamsetal,2009citedinCook&Liedloff,2015,p.11)

• Becausewateris,infact,alimitingresourceforaconsiderablepartoftheyearanyclimatechangedrivenvariationintheamountandseasonaldistributionofrainfallinthisregionhasthepotentialtosignificantlyaffectwateravailability.

• Inthemonsoonalnorthclimatechangewillresultinchangestorainfallseasonality,withevidenceofincreasingdryseasonlengthanddecreasingdryseasonrainfallinnorthQld.Currentclimatemodelscannotrobustlymodeltheisolatedstormeventsthatdeterminethetransitionsbetweenwetanddryseasonsandthusthelengthofthedryseason.

• Transportinfrastructureismorevulnerableundermoresevereeventsleadingtoanarrowertradingwindow,thoughaprogressiveimprovementinroadinfrastructurehasbeenslowlyemerging.

• TheNQRSCCommittee’sviewisthattheMITEZcorridoris“fitforpurpose”,meetingtheneedsforthecurrentusers,andhasexistingsurpluscapacityinboththerailandportsystems.Opportunitiestofurtherenhancethesupplychainbyfocusingonthreebroadareasofimprovement.

• Improvedlongtermstrategicplanningthatcanbetteridentifypriorityinfrastructureupgraderequirements.

• Improveddaytodayoperationsofthecorridorarepossiblethroughbetterco-ordinationamongstcorridoroperatorsandparticipants.

• Improvedclarityandaccessarrangementsarepossiblefornew,smallerentrantsseekingexportsolutions(NQRSCPSteeringCommittee,2013).

• Newairlinederegulationpoliciescoulddecreaseregionalservices.Costoflivingwillincreaseintheregionduetoincreasedfreightandconsequentlyproductcostsifroadsarefloodedmorefrequentlyandfuelpricesrise.

• Thereisanewlocalrealisationthatfarmassetsandstockarevulnerabletomore

3.0Regionhassomegoodinfrastructureassetsdespiteremoteness.Regionremainshighlyaffectedbyannualwetseason.Currentdisasterarrangementsmayseeinsufficientrecoveryofassetmanagementobligations.RisksexistrelatedtoretentionofKarumbaPortcapacity.Propertyscaleassetmanagementandemergencyservicelinksimproving.

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• AnexampleoffloodinganditsextentwasininFebruary2014upto20ruralpropertiesacrossCarpentaria,Mornington,DoomadgeeandBurkeshirewereisolatedbyfloodwaters,followingrainfallsofover200millimetres.TheStateGovernmentsuppliedthecouncilwithahelicoptertohelpdistributeemergencysupplies.

• Theregionhasbeenaffectedbynaturaldisasterevents,predominantlyflooding.TheprocessofclaimingNationalDisasterReliefandRecoveryArrangements(NDRRA)fundingforrepairstoroadinfrastructure,isimpairedbytheineligibilityofdaylabourcosts.Consequentlycouncilshavebeenforcedtoengagecontractorstoundertaketheworks(representing20%ofthe2011costsinNWQld).Duetotheremotenessandtheinabilitytosourcelocalqualifiedindependent(non-council)contractors,theworkhasgonetocontractorschargingsignificantlyhigherrates.Thiscosthasbeenabsorbedintheannualmaintenancebudgetsresultinginadecreaseinfulltimeemployeesanddetrimentaltothelocaleconomy(RDATownsvilleandNorthwestQueenslandCommittee,2015).

• Muchoftheregion’snorthernpopulationandbusinessesarereliantonthelargersettlementsinthesouthoftheregion.Groceriesincurthreesetsoffeesduetofreight,soa2Lmilkorasmalltubofbutterisapproximately$6.60(MorningtonShireCouncil,2015).

• Keyroadtransportassetsareprogressivelyimprovingbutremainannuallyvulnerabletoflooding.TheGulfDevelopmentRoad/SavannahWayhasunsealedsections,whichincreasesriskofaccidentsanddiscouragestourisminremotetownsontheroute.Approximately110kmoftheHannHighway,anotherimportanttransportlink,isalsounsealed(GulfSavannahDevelopment,2014).

• Duetothehighlyunreliablenatureofroadnetworksintheregion(muchofwhichisunsealed)airtransportationisimportantforfreightandpassengertravel(GulfRegionalPlanningAdvisoryCommittee,2000).

• Airtransportiscurrentlyveryexpensivewhichincreasesthecostoffreightandproductsintheregion.Airstripsaregenerallypoorquality(GulfRegionalPlanningAdvisoryCommittee,2000).OnMorningtonIslandanaveragewageis$287.00ppandanaverageflighttoCairnsis$1000.00ppreturn(MorningtonShireCouncil,2015).

• KarumbaPortservicestheregion’sminingandpastoralindustries.CenturyMinecurrentlycarriesthecostofdredging

intensecyclonicandfloodevents.• NaturalDisasterRelieffundingmodelsare

notwellsuitedtoprogressivebetterment,andcouldbecomestressedunderrecentProductivityCommissionrecommendations(ProductivityCommission,2014).

• Potentialformajorportdisruptionistherebuthasnotyetbeenrealised.

• Onfarminfrastructureassetsthatareannuallyvulnerable(increasingly)butcouldbebettermanagedthroughrealtimedataandinformationmanagement.

• Bettermechanismsforsharingdataandknowledgeaccumulatedbyemergencymanagementsystemsandforintegratingintolanduseplanningsystemsneedtobedevelopedasamatterofurgency(Birdetal.,2013,p.2).

• Neitherclimatechangeadaptationmeasuresnorresponsivedesignstrategiesareincludedinlanduseplanning(Birdetal.,2013,p.2).

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thechanneltotheport.CenturyMine’sclosureinNovember2015willlimitthesizeandaccessofexportcattleshipments(Renault,2014).

• KarumbaPort’sabilitytoservicetheregion’spastoralandminingindustriesproductexportationisconstrainedbytheregion’spoorroadinfrastructureandtheinadequateportfacilities(GulfRegionalPlanningAdvisoryCommittee,2000).Portinfrastructureisgenerallyundervalued.

• Coastalportassetsaregenerallydurablebutalsovulnerabletofloodingandcyclonerisk.

• Climatechangewillimpacteachlevelofthesupplychain.Forexample,CycloneMarciacutcommunicationsintheRockhamptonregionin2015andclosedtheabattoirfor6weeksduetopowerdisruptionsanddamagetothebuilding(Crowley,2015).

• Thereisnolinkbetweenemergencymanagementandlanduseplanning.Landuseplanningsystemsdonotusetheirplanninglegislationeffectivelytocreatedisaster-resilientcommunities(Birdetal.,2013).

• Regionalhousingstockcouldbevulnerabletomoreintensecyclonesthatpenetratefurtherinland,andtherearelowlevelsofcommunityinputintoIndigenoushousingdesignstandards(Birdetal.,2013).

2015ResilienceRating 15.5

MaximumforthisAttribute 30

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9.2 AttributeTwo:Communityknowledge,aspirationsandcapacity

AttributeComponent



2.1Communityawarenesslevelsofclimatechangeandnaturalresourcesustainability.

• StateandtrendinindividualandsectoralunderstandingofNRMissuesandcurrentbehavior(regularsurvey).

• PostYasiand2010floods,Gulfcommunitieshaveaheightenedawarenessoftheimpactsofintensecyclonicandfloodingevents,ifnotanunderstandingofpotentiallinkstoclimatechange.

• ASGCphonesurveyin2014acrossallindustrysectorsfoundagreementthatthewetseasonwasarrivinglateranddeliveringlessrainfall(66%)howevergraziersweredividedonthecausewithmanydiscussingthe‘naturalcycle’whichlasts10/11years.Themining,conservationandindustryandIndigenouscommunityagreedthattherewereagreaternumberofextremelyhotdays(Connor,2014).

• Whenaskedifcycloneswerehavingabiggerimpactthaninpreviousyears,theresponsewasdividedwithonlytheconservationsectoragreeing(Connor,2014).

• Allsectorsagreedthatthespreadofweedseedisincreasingwitheachfloodeventandthatmanyweedspecieswereflourishing.Thegraziersidentifiedthatnewpestsandweedswouldincreasewithclimatechange(over86%eitheragreedorstronglyagreed)(Connor,2014).

• Communitygenerallyhasalowawarenessofclimatechange—awareofdroughtsbutnotnecessarilytheawarenessoftherelationshiptoclimatechangeorhowtopersonallychangethings.ThereisnorecyclinginMountIsa(personalcommunicationwithS.Knight,DirectorJCUMtIsaCentreforRural&RemoteHealth,20/10/2015)

• Arecentstudyconsistingof18interviewsand91surveysofbeefproducersinnorth-easternAustraliafoundthatmostpeopleweremotivatedtolearnnewpracticesandskillstoimprovelandconditionandproductionbyawarenessoftheunsustainabilityofcurrentpractices,financialhardship,andorganizedlearningprograms.Theyreportedlearningprimarilythroughobservationofpeersandfirst-handexperience.Evidenceoftransformativelearningthatfosteredsustainabilitywasonlyobservedin5interviewees(Lankester,2013).

• Arecentnationalstudyonfarmdecision-makingandclimatechangefoundthattherearedifferenttypesoffarmersandthattheydiffersystematicallywithrespecttofactorsrelatedtotheclimatechangeadaptation.Itidentifiedthreetypesof

• LimitedinformationaboutlandholderandwidercommunityunderstandingofclimatechangeandnaturalresourcesustainabilitymakesithardtodrawconclusionsinSGC.

• Recentpost-disasterexperiencesuggestsawarenesslevelsofclimatechangeandnaturalresourcesustainabilityarelikelytobevariedbutwellarousedacrosstheregion.

• Ongoingperiodsofhighenvironmentalvariabilityprovideanopportunitytobuildawarenesslevelsaboutclimatechangeandnaturalresourcesustainability.

• Peoplemayrecognisethatchangesarehappeningwithintheregion,butnotnecessarilybecauseofclimatechange.

• Duetolevelsofdebtandpersonalfinancialhardship,primaryproducershaveastrongincentivetomakedecisionsforshort-termeconomicgainratherthanconsideringlong-termsustainability.

3.5Severalstudiessuggestahighwillingnessforinnovationamongproducers.Recentdisastersandotherstressessuggestkeyregionalplayersareawareofresourcevulnerabilities.Modestwaterresourceproposalsareonthecardswithintheregion.Strongawarenessofenergyandecosystemserviceopportunities.

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farmers:‘Cashpoorlong-termadaptors’(55%ofthesample),‘Comfortablenon-adaptors’(26%)and‘Transitioners’(19%)(Hogan,Berry,Ng,&Bode,2011).TheapplicabilityofthistotheGulfrequiresassessment.

• Greiner(2013)reportedapositiveresponsebyagroupofleaseholdersintheNorthernGulfRegiontothedevelopmentofaprototypeenvironmentalcodeofpracticeforgrazing,suggestingreasonablewillingnesstoadapttoclimaticchangeintheregion.

2.2Education/knowledgelevelsandspreadacrossthecommunity.

Educationdistributionmeasures.

• ParticipationratesinVocationalEducationandTraining(VET)andHigherEducation(HEd)inruralandremoteAustraliaaresignificantlylowerthanthatinourcitiesandurbanareas(Marksetal,2000;Bradleyetal.,2008;Pratley,2012citedinTaylor,Andrews,&Wallis,2013).

• Isolationandremotenessarebothbarrierstolearningandkeyfactorsinattrition(Conrad&Donaldson,2004).Costsandaccessaremajorimpedimentstoparticipation,butattitudesandaspirationstowardtertiaryeducationexplainmorevariationinparticipationrates(Jamesetal.,1999citedinTayloretal.,2013).

• Between2001and2011,theshareofpersonswithabachelorsdegreeorhigherintheSouthernGulfincreasedfrom17.7%to18.0%,butisstillwellbelowtheQldaverage(QueenslandGovernmentStatistician'sOffice,2015).

• Ofmalesaged25-44intheSouthernGulfin2011,64.9%hadanon-schoolqualification(e.g.,bachelordegree,diploma).Only56.5offemalesage25-44hadanon-schoolqualification.Thiscompareswith67.4%and64.5%forQueenslandasawhole(QueenslandGovernmentStatistician'sOffice,2015).

• Thefieldsofstudywiththelargestshareofnon-schoolqualificationsintheSouthernGulfin2011wereengineeringandrelatedtechnologies(23.5%),managementandcommerce(9.8%),andhealth(6.8%).Only2.8%ofnon-schoolqualificationswereinagriculture,environmental,andrelatedstudies(QueenslandGovernmentStatistician'sOffice,2015).

• 6,731occupiedprivatedwellings(or68.6%)hadinternetconnections.Withintheregion,MountIsa(C)LGAhadthelargestnumberofdwellingswithinternetconnectionswith4,726.Withintheregion,Mornington(S)LGAhadthelargestpercentage(QueenslandGovernmentStatistician'sOffice,2015).

• Manychildrenrelyoninternetfordistanceeducation.Currently,5GBofdataataspeedof1056kpbsisavailablefor$92/monthcomparedto$20/monthatspeedsof2-3MBSin

• Educationsupportsresilienceandadaptationbyprovidingindividualswithknowledgeandskills,andskillsmixisgenerallylowerinSavannahGulfarea,butbalancedbystrongpracticalandtraditionalknowledgelevel.

• Schoolcurriculumsdonotyetsufficientlytakeintoaccountfuturing/planningandrelevantbuildingofcivicskills.

• Studentswishingtocompletetheirsecondaryeducationmusteitherleavetheregiontodosoorcompletetheireducationthroughdistanceeducation.

• FewpeopleintheSouthernGulfCatchmentsarereceivinghighereducationinagricultureandenvironmentalsciencesnecessarytoincreasetheknowledgebasenecessaryforsustainablecommunities.

• Afterreceivingauniversitydegree,peoplewhogrewupintheSouthernGulfarelikelytorelocateelsewhereandareunlikelytoreturntotheregion.

2.5Strongeducationaldisparitybetweenrichandpoorintheregion.Limitedservicesmeanahighdepartureofhighpotentialstudents.Educatedworkerscomingintotheregiontendtobetransient.

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metroareas(GulfSavannahDevelopment,2014).• Rateofschoolandpost-schooleducationintheSouthernGulf

RegionislowerthantheQueenslandAverage(QueenslandGovernmentStatistician’sOffice,2015).

• Educationoutcomesremainwellbelowthestateaveragealthoughthenumberofpeopleovertheageof15whohavecompletedyear12isincreasing(Everingham,Barnes,&Brereton,2014).

• Sometownsintheregiondonothaveprimaryschoolsandtherearelimitedsupportservicesacrosstheregion(GulfRegionalPlanningAdvisoryCommittee,2000).

• Thereare33earlychildhoodeducationandcareservicesofwhich19areinMountIsa(QueenslandGovernmentStatistician’sOffice,2015).Departureofchildrenisamajorproblem.

• Manyhighschoolstudentsinremoteareasattendboardingschoolinurban/moredevelopedcoastalareasorrelyonschooloftheairfortheireducation(Stokes,Holdsworth,&Stafford,1999).

2.3Skilllevelsandspreadacrossthecommunity.

Skillsdistributionmeasures. • Thereisasignificantgeneralskillsshortageintheregion.Theroleofwomeninthepastoralindustryisnotgenerallywellrecognised,howeverwomenarewellrepresentedinlocalgovernment(personalcommunicationwithS.Knight,DirectorJCUMtIsaCentreforRural&RemoteHealth,20/10/2015).

• Thereisalsoasignificantemigrationoftheregion’syouthandskilledpeopletowardslargercitiesseekinggreatereducationandemploymentopportunities.

• Thereisabroadshortageof‘mostprofessionals’inregionalandremoteareasofQueensland,particularlyinnon-coastalregions(BureauofInfrastructureTransportandRegionalEconomics,2011).

• Thereisaneedtore-skillandprovideassistancetodevelopbusinessandbusinessresilienceplanstohelpcopewithchangeandincreasebusinessresilience.

• ParticipantsinastudyaroundMountIsaandCloncurryexpressedaneedforfundingtohelpAboriginalpeoplegain‘skillsforalifetime’(i.e.,upskillduringperiodsofdownturninpastoralism)(Pearceetal.,2015).

• IndigenousliteracyishamperinguptakeofopportunitiesinprogramssuchasthevocationfocusedRemoteJobsandCommunitiesProgram(replacingthewelfare-orientatedCommunityDevelopmentEmploymentProjects(CDEP))andtheMountIsaMinesapprenticeshipprograms(Pearceetal.,2015).

• SkilledworkersmustoftenbebroughtintotheregiontocompleteworkandrarelyresideintheGulfregionbeyondthescopeoftheiremployment.

• Re-skillingindustries/labourforcestoadapttootherbusinessmodelsorbusinessenterprisesorcopewithchangedresourceconditionsispoorbutiscurrentlybeingimplementedbyMineralsandMetalsGroup(MMG)withtheclosureofCenturyMine.

• Thereisalackoftertiaryorvocationaleducationfacilitiesinwhichtoup-skilltheregion’spopulationinassociationwithenterpriseleveladjustment.

• Socialandeconomicbarrierstosuccessiononfarmandinkeybusinessesleadingtoaskillsgapinbusinessandcommunityleadership.

2.5Whilestrongpracticalskillsexistintheregion,professionalskillslargelyneedtobeimported.Skillsequalitywithintheregionisstronglychallengedbetweenrichandpoor.

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2.4Individualleadershipandcomplexproblemsolving.

Expertbasedindicatorofregionalleadership(champions).

• Thereislimitedquantitativedataagainstwhichtomakeamoredetailedassessment.

• Leadersforsolvingcomplexproblemsintheregionareemergingwithinlocalgovernment,industryandthenot-for-profitcontext,butoftenwithahighturnoverwithintheregion.

• Therehasrecentlybeenahighleadershipturnoverinregionaldevelopment,NRMandlocalgovernment.SomecrossregionalcollaborationisemerginginNRMandregionaldevelopment.

• Industrysectoralleadershipisnotalwaysstrongwithintheregion,leavinglocalproducersvulnerabletopolicysettingssetelsewhere.

• Adapterstendtobecashpoor,leavinginnovatorsexposedwhentakingrisks.

• RangelandChampionshaveplayedakeyroleinraisingawarenessofeducationalopportunitiesandpathways,inimprovingparticipationinhighereducation,and,throughtheirsupportandencouragement,inretainingmature-agedstudentsinhighereducationinremoteAustralia(Tayloretal.,2013).

• Leadershipintheshirecouncilsisdynamic.Councilsareadaptingtotheircircumstances(personalcommunicationwithS.Knight,DirectorJCUMtIsaCentreforRural&RemoteHealth,20/10/2015).

• Australia’sruralleadershipprogramhasalowuptakeexceptforthecandidatesputforwardbyJCUruralhealthunit(personalcommunicationwithS.Knight,DirectorJCUMtIsaCentreforRural&RemoteHealth,20/10/2015).

• Knight(2015)considersthecommunitysuffersfromalackofconfidenceinthemselves–butpridethemselvesontheirlocalknowledge.

• Leadershipinthebeefindustryhasnotbeenwellfosteredwhileminingsponsorshipsinlocalindigenousleadershiphasbeengood–butlocal(personalcommunicationwithS.Knight,DirectorJCUMtIsaCentreforRural&RemoteHealth,20/10/2015).

• Campdriveassociation,communityfestivalsetcarethriving.MountIsarodeohasonememberofstaffemployedbythecouncilbutwithhugevolunteereffort(personalcommunicationwithS.Knight,DirectorJCUMtIsaCentreforRural&RemoteHealth,20/10/2015)

• RDATownsvilleandNWreceivedalargenumberofgrantapplicationswithwell-developedideasreflectingforwardthinkingbuttheyareincompetitionwithTownsvilleandoften

• Leadershipcapacityintheregioncontinuestobespreadacrossandwithinanumberofsectors.

• Fragmentationandturnoverofleadershipcausesstabilityproblems.

• Communitieshavelearnedtobeinnovativeandresilientbasedonprevioushardshipsfaced.

3.5Leadershipexistsinvarioussectorsbutnotwellconnectedacrosssectors.Highturnoveranddifficulttoretainleadershipqualitieswithintheregion.

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notsuccessful(personalcommunicationwithS.Knight,DirectorJCUMtIsaCentreforRural&RemoteHealth,20/10/2015).

• Localinitiativesarestrong(e.g.,Cloncurry–puttingitselfforwardasacentreofequineexcellence,andNormanton,Hughenden,JuliaCreekandRichmondalllinkingupontheDinosaurtrail.Theeffectivenessdependsonlocalleadership(personalcommunicationwithS.Knight,DirectorJCUMtIsaCentreforRural&RemoteHealth,20/10/2015).

2.5Communityculturalintegrity

Expertbasedindicatorofculturalhealthandintegrity.

• IndigenouspeopleoftheGulfcontinuetohavestrongculturalconnectionstothelandandseaintheareatheyarefromandretaincustodialresponsibilitiestoensuretheirprotection(Everinghametal.,2014).

• AboriginalpeoplewhohadgrownuponcountryaroundMountIsaandCloncurryexpressastrongdesiretostayoncountry(Pearceetal.,2015).

• Thereisastrongcultureofindividual/communityself-relianceinthepastoralandfishingsectors.

• Moretransientsectorstendnottohavestrongculturalconnectionstoplace,butdorelatetowiderAustralianculturalnorms.

• Communityculturalintegrityishighandconsequentlythecommunityweathersshockswell.Facebookpagesofthecommunitiesarevibrant.Variousindustriesarespringingupontheinternet.

• Smallcommunitiesregroupquickly,butitisharderinMountIsaandhardestforthenewarrivalsthatarriveinthegoodtimesandthenaresurprisedastheminingordroughtcyclebegins(personalcommunicationwithS.Knight,DirectorJCUMtIsaCentreforRural&RemoteHealth,20/10/2015).

• TheGulfregioncontinuestohavestronganddistinctculturalintegrityaroundkeycommunities/industries.

• Someaspectsoflongstandingcultures,however,mayresultinsomeresistancetonecessarychanges.

• CriticalmassofservicesinMountIsadoesenablestrongculturalservicesandeffortsinregion.

3.5Strongculturalcontinuityandstrengthwithindifferentsectors.Culturalstabilitycan,however,alsocauseresistancetochange.

2015ResilienceRating 15.5MaximumforthisAttribute 25

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9.3 AttributeThree:Communityvitality

AttributeComponents



3.1Demographicstability.

Basicdemographiccharacteristics(e.g.,population,agestructure,migrationandgrowthrates).

• TheaverageannualgrowthrateintheestimatedresidentpopulationoftheSouthernGulfRegionwasbetween30June2001and30June2014was0.4%.TheaveragesforQldwere2.2%and2.0%respectively(QueenslandGovernmentStatistician'sOffice,2015).

• ThepopulationofMountIsafellbetween2001and2007,since2007to2012ithasrisenby9.3%(1,917people).Likewise,Cloncurryfellbetween2001and2006buthassincerisenby5.4%(175people)(Pearceetal.,2015).

• Between2001and2012,theshareofpersonsage65andolderintheSouthernGulfincreasedfrom5.7%to7.8%.Theshareofpersons0-14hasdecreasedfrom26.5%to22.9%(QueenslandGovernmentStatistician'sOffice,2015).

• MostofthepopulationintheSouthernGulfisinthe25-44(32.5%),1-14(22.9%),and45-64(22.8%)agegroups(QueenslandGovernmentStatistician'sOffice,2015).

• IntheSouthernGulfsome21.7%areIndigenous.TheaverageforallofQldin3.6%(QueenslandGovernmentStatistician'sOffice,2015).

• Between2001and2011,theIndigenouspopulationincreasedby100persons(1.4%),non-Indigenouspersonsaccountedfor74.2%ofthepopulationin2001and68.7%in2011(QueenslandGovernmentStatistician'sOffice,2015).

• Between2001and2011,theshareofpersonsbornoverseasincreasedfrom9.7%to11.6%ItheSouthernGulf(QueenslandGovernmentStatistician'sOffice,2015).

• ThepercentageofpersonsintheSouthernGulfwhohadadifferentaddressoneyearagowas19.3%andfiveyearsago42.6%(QueenslandGovernmentStatistician'sOffice,2015).

• InGulfIndigenouscommunities,demographicsaresubjecttorapidchangesovershortperiodsoftime.ThismaybeattributedtoCensusdates,recentweatherevents,orphasepositionsinthecyclesofin-andout-migration(Birdetal.,2013).

• Localpopulationshocksoccur(e.g.,therailwayheadquartersclosingatJuliaCreekandHughenden).Contestabilityincontractsandtenderinghasanegativelocaleffect,tenderingoutthejob-findagenciesforexample.Contractorscannotcompetewiththelocalknowledgebuthavetheadvantageof

• Populationgrowthisstatic,withthepopulationslightlyaging,withgrowthconcentratedintheIndigenouscommunities.

• Populationturnoverissteadyandstable,butmobile,youngandmaledominatedinIndigenouscommunities(Birdetal.,2013).

• ThereisgreaterproportionofadultsatworkingageandfewolderpeoplecomparedtotheQldaverage.

• Bird(Birdetal.,2013,p.2)suggeststhatinthefuturethereislikelytobemoreIndigenousout-migrationintheeventofenvironmentalstresses.

3.5Populationgrowthisgenerallystableandpredictable.Ageprofilesarequitehealthy,buthideregularoutmigrationofolderpeople.Populationitinerancycanleadtosomestabilityproblems.

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scalesofcost,thenmoneyleavesthearea,nolocalknowledgebeingincorporatedintooperations(personalcommunicationwithS.Knight,DirectorJCUMtIsaCentreforRural&RemoteHealth,20/10/2015).

3.2Wellbeing/happinesswithinthegeneralcommunity.

• Happiness,wellbeingorgenuineprogressindexes.

• Dissatisfactionratings.

• PeoplelivinginremoteareasofQldreportedhighersatisfactionwithlife,particularlywithsafetyandfeelingpartofthecommunity,andweremorewillingtohelpeachother,comparedwithurbanandruralareas(Kreger&Hunter,2005).

• IndigenouspeopleinthisremoteregionhavestrongconnectionstotheirkinwholiveinthemanyregionaltownsandAboriginalcommunitiesacrossawidegeographicalarea(Memmott&Nash,2012).

• RemoteareasofQueenslandcomprised3.1%ofthetotalpopulation,butaccountedfor4.3%ofthetotalsuicideincidencefrom2008-2011((DeLeo&Heller,2004).

• From2008to2010,thehighestnumberofsuicidesbyAboriginalandTorresIslanderpeoplewasinNorthandFarNorthQueensland(26.2%)(DeLeo&Heller,2004).

• InMountIsa64%ofrespondentslistedpeoplerelatedaspectssuchasfriendlinesswithinthecommunity,caringnatureandconnectednessoflocalresidentsasthebestthingsaboutlivingintown(Pearceetal.,2015).

• TheoutbackregionofQldhasahighparticipationrateforrecreationalfishingamongstitsresidentsat23%(stateaverage17%)(Taylor,2012citedinABARES,2015,p.13).

• MiningaffectscommunitystructurewhereminesareoperatedbyFIFOstaff(Hossainetal.,2013citedinCrowley,2015).

• In2013therewasadeclineinthementalwellbeingofAboriginalcommunitiesintheShiresofMountIsaandCloncurryasaresultofthedownsizingofthepastoralsectorduringprolongeddrought(Pearceetal.,2015).

• Localeventsarefrequentwith,forexample,CloncurryMerryMusterfestivalinJuly,BouliaCamelracesinJuly,DroversCampFestivalinAugust,LakeMoondarraFishingFestivalinOctober.JuliaCreekhas12annualevents.Hughendenhas29eventsscheduledin2015whileRichmondhas13events.

• InstituteofHealthandWelfareundertookahealthandwell-beingsurveyandillustratedtheareafaredwell(personalcommunicationwithS.Knight,DirectorJCUMtIsaCentreforRural&RemoteHealth,20/10/2015).

• Stressanddistressareasresultingindrugandalcoholissuesincludingdomesticviolence(personalcommunicationwithS.Knight,DirectorJCUMtIsaCentreforRural&RemoteHealth,

• Havingbeenthroughsignificantrecentdisastersandhighdebtlevel,thepastoralcommunitymaybemorevulnerableandpronetodepression,suicideriskandhaveloweredresiliencetochangewhenthereisalackofadequatesupportnetworks.

3.5Generalreportingofhighlevelsoflifesatisfaction.SpecificwellbeingissuesofconcerninpastoralandIndigenouscommunities.

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20/10/2015).3.3Generalcommunityhealthanddisparities.

• Specificgeneralhealthindicators.

• Comparativeindicatorsacrosskeycommunitysectors.

• SocioeconomicandculturalfactorsspecifictoruralAustraliaarekeyinfluencesofhealthinSGC.Theserangefromindividual-levelfactors(e.g.,ruralstoicism,povertyandsubstanceusenorms)toneighbourhoodsocialcharacteristics(Beard,Tomaska,Earnest,Summerhayes,&Morgan,2009).

• Climatechangepredictionssuggestadversehealthimplicationsforremotecommunities(Pearceetal.,2015).

• Peopleinremoteareasaremorelikelytodiefromlungcancer,chronicheartdisease,stroke,suicide,injury,poisoning,roadtrafficinjury,diabetes,asthmaandchronicobstructivepulmonarydisease(COPD).Inremoteareas,therewerehigherdeathandhospitalisationratesduetohazardousandharmfulconsumptionofalcoholandtobaccosmokingaswellasahigherproportionofharmfulandhazardousalcoholconsumption(Kreger&Hunter,2005).

• Ruralcommunitieshavesocioeconomicandculturalcharacteristicsthataredistinctfromnon-ruralcommunities.Evidencethatsocioeconomicdisadvantageisakeydriverofruralhealthdisparities(Beardetal.,2009).

• TherateofsuicideinruralAustraliaindicatesthatthereisahighprevalenceofmentalhealthissues.Certainoccupationshavebeenfoundtobeassociatedwithahigherriskofmentaldisorders.Programstocombatmentalhealthissuesinruralareashavefocusedonfarmers(Fragaretal.,2010).

• Ruralworkershaverelativelyhighlevelsofpsychologicaldistress.Whilemuchattentionhasbeenfocusedonthoseworkingonfarms,theruralunemployedhavehighlevelsofdistress.Earlyinterventionandvocationalrehabilitationprogramsshouldbedevelopedinruralcommunitiestoservethishard-to-reach,butneedy,ruralpopulation(Fragaretal.,2010).

• ‘SuicideinQld1999-2001’providedanindicatoroftheextentofvarianceinmentalhealthstatusbetweeninmetropolitan,ruralandremoteareas.Mortalityratesformalesinremoteareas(42.3per100,000)weresignificantlyhigherthanthemaleratesformetropolitanareasandQldasawhole.Regionalratesformalesandallpersonsweresignificantlyhigherthanthosefromcounterpartsinmetropolitanareas(DeLeo&Heller,2004).

• Relationshipbetweenlevelsofmentalhealthandwellbeingwithemploymentandoccupationalstatusofruralresidentsfoundthehighestlevelsofdistressandfunctionalimpairmentwerereportedinthosepermanentlyunabletoworkandthe

• Whilehealthisnotbadinaninternationalcontext,therearesignificantdisparitieswithinthecommunityandwiththeoutsideworld,impactingresilience.

• Despitechronicchildhoodbloodleadexposuresinbothcommunities,thereisahistoryofdenialanddownplayingofthesourceandimpactofthecontamination.Acontributoryfactortothispatternofbehaviouristhefragmentedandinconsistentdeliveryofdataaswellasitsinterpretationinrelationtoenvironmentalandhealthimpactsfromexposures(Tayloretal.,2015).

• GiventhattheCityofMountIsaisdirectlyadjacenttoMountIsaMineandthecity'sprincipaldrinkingwaterstoragearea,LakeMoondarra,isdownstreamofthese,elevatedconcentrationsofmetalsintheriversystemandinsoilsandsedimentsaroundtheurbanareamightbeproblematic.NewspaperarticlesrelatingtotheissueofmetalcontaminationanditspotentialenvironmentandhumanhealthimpactsinMountIsahighlightthatthisisamajorissueofconcerntotheareaaswellastothewiderminingcommunity(Tayloretal.,2015).

• Giventhetwincaveatsoffutureclimatechangecoupledtothepreferentialstorageofsignificantconcentrationsofmetalsinfine-grainedriparianalluvialstores,itisparticularlyimportanttoobtain,modelandutilisereliabledataformetal-contaminatedaridsystemstoquantifythecurrenthealthofriversandassociatedhumanandecologicalsystems.Indoingso,suchdatawillhelpdefinestrategiestomitigatetheeffectsoffutureperturbationsarisingfromclimatechange,industrialisationandfluctuationsinrunoffregimes(Taylor&Hudson-Edwards,2008).

• Exposuretoairpollutantssuchassulphur

3.0Byinternationalstandards,SGChealthisreasonable.TheSGCregionhasstandarddisparitiestypicalofremoteareas.Indigenoushealthissuesremainasignificantconcern.MountIsahasspecificlead-relatedhealthrisksbeingactedon.

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unemployed(Fragaretal.,2010).• Ruralunemployedsufferconsiderablepsychologicaldistress

and‘disability’,yettheyarenotthetargetofspecificmentalhealthpromotionandpreventionprograms(Fragaretal.,2010).

• IndigenousresidentsofruralandremoteAustraliaexperiencementalhealthissuesassociatedwithsocialdisadvantage(Hunter,2007).

• ThereareamultitudeoforganisationsprovidingalliedandmentalhealthorwellbeingsupporttoresidentsinNorthWestQueensland(NWQ)butmanywhoneedhelpdonotutilisetheservicesduetostigmaassociatedwithmentalillness,aninabilitytorecognisetheextentoftheirhealthneeds,afearofshowingvulnerabilityortimeconstrains(Pearceetal.,2015).

• AtHeadspace,agovernmentfundedorganisationtohelpwithIndigenousandnon-Indigenouspeople50%oftheclientswereself-referred(personalcommunication,HeadspaceManager).

• IndigenouslifeexpectancyislowerinSGCthannon-indigenousby12years(CummingsEconomics,2013).

• Disparitiesinhealthexistintheregion.MountIsaisaprettyunhealthytown.Unhealthydiet,lifestyle,nofootpaths,nocycletracts,vibrantcyclingclubbutnokidscyclingtotownVsCloncurryandJuliaCreekwithgoodwalkingtracksasaresultofahealthandcommunityinitiative(personalcommunicationwithS.Knight,DirectorJCUMtIsaCentreforRural&RemoteHealth,20/10/2015).

• Aculturallytailoredsurvey,includingrespondentsfromMountIsa,DoomadgeeandMorningtonfoundwomenreportedhighratesofstressfullifeeventsinpregnancy,lowlevelsofchoiceinplaceofbirthandmodelofcareandlimitedoptionstocarryoutculturalpractices.Highlevelsofconfidenceinparentingwerealsoreported.Womenwerelesslikelytoreportbeingtreatedwithkindness,understandingandrespectbymaternitycarestaffthanwomenansweringasimilarmainstreamsurvey(Parker,McKinnon,&Kruske,2014).

• Sediment-metalconcentrationsadjacenttoanddownstreamoftheMountIsaminesignificantlyexceedbackgroundconcentrationsaswellasAustraliangovernmentsedimentqualitylowtriggerguidelines.Overbanksedimentsaremorecontaminatedthanchannelsediments.DeliveryofcontaminantsduringwetseasonsfromMountIsaMineandhistoricallycontaminatedriverbanksremainsanongoingissue.Theeaseofdustentrainmentinaridzonesmeansthat

dioxidecouldincreaseincidentsofpneumonia.Miningalsohasaadverseeffectonthesemi-aridfreshwatersysteminMountIsawiththedensitiesofbacteriaindicatorsinremnantpoolsthroughouttheLeichardtriverexceedingacceptableguidelineswhichmightexposechildrentogreaterriskofdiarrhoea(Xu,2015).

• FuturepneumoniaanddiarrhoeapreventionandcontrolmeasuresinQueenslandshouldfocusmoreonMountIsa(Xu,2015).

• Moreintenserainyseasonswillincreasetheburdenofpneumoniaanddiarrhoea(Xu,2015).

• AboriginalandTorresStraitIslanderwomenhaveadditionalmaternityneedstomainstreamAustralianwomenandthesearenotbeingmeteffectively.Recommendationsincludedimprovingservicesincludingtheneedtoenhancetheculturalcompetenceofmaternityservices;increaseaccesstocontinuityofmidwiferycaremodels,facilitatemorechoicesincare,workwiththestrengthsofAboriginalandTorresStraitIslanderwomen,familiesandcommunities,andengagewomeninthedesignanddeliveryofcare.(Parkeretal.,2014).

• AtMountIsa,theGlencoreminingcompanywillhavespentmorethanA$600milliononarangeofenvironmentalimprovementsbytheendof2016.Hopefully,theseinvestmentswillresultinbetteroutcomesforthenextgenerationofchildrengrowingupinthesetoxicmetalrichcommunities(Tayloretal.,2015).

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sedimentsenrichedintoxicconcentrationsofmetalsmaybewidelydispersedandultimatelyingestedandabsorbedbybiota(Taylor&Hudson-Edwards,2008).

• MountIsaisthelargestemitterofsulphurdioxide,leadandsomeothermetalsinAustralia.ThebloodleadlevelofchildreninMountIsaismuchhigherthaninchildrenofotherregionsofAustraliaandtheconsequentlifelongnegativehealthandintellectualimpactsonchildrenhasbeenextensivelyreported(Xu,Hu,&Tong,2015).

• AlthoughemissionstotheenvironmentareregulatedaccordingtoAustralia’snationalairqualitystandards,significantatmosphericpointsourcetoxicemissionsofarsenic,leadandsulphurdioxidecontinuetocontaminateMountIsacommunities.Short-termatmosphericcontaminantemissionsacrossresidentialareasfromtheMountIsaMinesoperationsaresignificant.MountIsaisalsoblanketedbyelevatedsulphurdioxideconcentrations,withtheAustralianandQueensland1-hairqualitystandard(0.2ppm)beingexceededon27occasionsin2011(Taylor,Dong,Kristensen,&Zahran,2015).

• ChildreninminingandsmeltingtownssuchasMountIsawhoareexposedhighlevelsoflead,arsenicandcadmiumaremorethantwiceaslikelytohavedevelopmentaldisordersthanthenationalaverage.Theyalsoperformlowerthanneighbouringpeersonschooltests.ChildrenlivingclosesttoMountIsa’sminewhohadthehighestlevelsofexposuretotoxicair,dustandsoilsconsistentlyhadthelowestliteracyandnumeracyscoresinyearsthreeandfive.(Tayloretal.,2015).

• InMay2015,theNationalHealthandMedicalResearchCouncil(NHMRC)loweredthechildhoodbloodleadinterventionlevelfromtentofivemicrogramsperdecilitre.Thisreflectstheglobalviewthatthereisnominimumsafelevelofexposure.Thisnewguidelinemeansaround50%ofchildrenunderfiveyearsoldinMountIsahaveabloodleadinexcessofthenewinterventionvalue(Tayloretal.,2015).

• EmergencyDepartmentVisits(EDVs)forchildhoodpneumoniaanddiarrhoeawerehighestincentralwest,northwestandfarnorthofQld.MountIsacityisahighriskclusterwherechildhoodpneumoniaanddiarrhoeaco-distribute.ThereisalowsocioeconomicindexassociatedwithhighEDVforchildhoodpneumonia.EDVsincreaseby3%(pneumonia)and4%(diarrhoea)forevery10mmincreaseinmonthlyaveragerainfall(Xuetal.,2015).

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3.4Communityservices,infrastructure,access,anddisparities.

• Generalisableandcomparableservicebenchmarks.

• Comparativeindicatorsacrosskeycommunitysectors.

• The‘virtuallyhere’globalmegatrendmeansweareincreasinglymovingonlinetoconnect,todeliverandaccessservices,toobtaininformationandtoperformtransactionssuchasshoppingandworking(Hajkowiczetal.,2012).

• IntheSouthernGulf,70.5%oftheregionwasclassifiedas“RemoteAustralia”and29.5%as“VeryRemoteAustralia”(QueenslandGovernmentStatistician’sOffice,2015).

• Datashowsnumbersofagedcare,childcare;hospitalservicessignificantlylowerthannumbersacrossQld.

• Thevastscale,remotenessandsparsepopulationcreatesevereservicechallengesforstategovernmentagencies.Asaresult,localgovernmentplaysamoreimportantroleinrepresentingandservingthelocalcommunitythaninmetropolitanareas.ThesecouncilsrelyheavilyonexternalfundingsupportfromstateandtheAustralianGovernmenttosupplementtheirrelativelysmallrateableincomebase.Theyarealsodependentonafewmajorcontracts,e.g.,withQueenslandMainRoads,tomaintainaviableworkforcewhichisthenabletosupportawiderrangeofservicesforthecommunity(SouthernGulfCatchments,2005).

• TheSouthernGulfhad35earlychildhoodeducationandcareservicesasat31August2015and13longdaycareservices.Withintheregion,MountIsa(C)LGAhadthelargestnumberofserviceswith19(QueenslandGovernmentStatistician’sOffice,2015).

• SouthernGulfhas30schoolsasat30June2015,13hospitals.Intheregion,MountIsa(C)LGAhadthemostschoolswith15(QueenslandGovernmentStatistician’sOffice,2015).

• SouthernGulfhas15Policestations,12ambulancestations,13hospitalsand6firestations(QueenslandGovernmentStatistician’sOffice,2015).

• SouthernGulfhas19agedcareservicesasat30June2014with235agedcareserviceoperationalplaces.Withintheregion,MountIsa(C)LGAhadthemostagedcareserviceoperationalplaceswith112(QueenslandGovernmentStatistician’sOffice,2015).

• MorningtonShireCouncil’sexcitingcollaborationwiththeDepartmentofHousingandPublicWorks(BuildingandAssetServices)isalreadyopeningupnewopportunitiesformotivatedlocalseagertolearn,earnandcontribute.

• FederalMemberforKennedy,BobKatter,andhisson,MemberforMountIsa,RobbieKatter,journeyedtoMorningtonIslandtoseefirsthandtheextentofdisadvantageintheWellesleyIslandtownship.

• Accesstoservicesismuchpoorerthanruralormetropolitanareas.

• Indigenouscommunities,particularlytheislands,havesignificantdisparities.

• Keylinkageinfrastructurecontinuestothreatenshort-termfoodsecurityandavailabilityoffreshproduceaftermajorweatherevents.

2.5SignificantservicesdisparitiesbeyondMountIsa.Limitedinvestmentinstrategicserviceintegration.Limitedcommunitydevelopmentapproachestoservicedelivery.

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• Giventhefarmdebtcrisis,some71%ofproducerswouldliketoimprovedaccesstofinancialplanning,45%willneedtoaccessCentrelinkassistance,54%wouldliketoaccesscounsellingformentalhealth/depression(Ikin,2014).

• ThereductioninFrontierServicescapacitywithintheregionhasnotablydiminishedcoordinativecapacityandflexibilitywithintheservicessector.

• Dataaboutservicesisnotbenchmarkedacrossthecommunity.

3.5Housing,accommodationandaccessibility.

Levelsofrentaldependency.Levelsofmortgagestress.Comparativeindicatorsacrosskeycommunitysectors.

• IntheSouthernGulftherewere240residentialdwellingsalesinthe12monthsending31March2015.Amediansalepricehasnotbeencalculated.Withintheregion,MountIsa(C)LGAhadthehighestmediansalepricewith$355,000.ThelowestShirewithdatawasFlindersat$77,000.TheQldMediansalepricewas$415,000(QueenslandGovernmentStatistician’sOffice,2015).

• Inthe12monthsto31March2015therewere4newhousessalesand44vacantlandsales.Withintheregion,Carpentaria(S)LGAhadthehighestmedianvacantlandsalepricewith$20,000.WithinQldtheMediannewhousesalepriceof$435,000andMedianvacantlandsalepricewas$209,000(QueenslandGovernmentStatistician’sOffice,2015).

• IntheSouthernGulf,therewere23approvednewhousesinthe12monthsending31July2015.$14.8millionofbuildingvalueinresidentialbuildingapprovalsinthe12monthsending31July2015.Withintheregion,Mornington(S)LGAhadthelargestvalueofresidentialbuildingapprovalsinthe12monthsending31July2015with$6.5million.Withintheregion,MountIsa(C)LGAhadthelargestvalueofnon-residentialbuildingapprovalsinthe12monthsending31July2015with$10.6million(QueenslandGovernmentStatistician’sOffice,2015).

• OfoccupiedprivatedwellingsintheSouthernGulf2,061occupiedprivatedwellings(or21.0%)werefullyowned.Withintheregion,MountIsa(C)LGAhadthelargestnumberoffullyowneddwellingswith1,165.Withintheregion,Mornington(S)LGAhadthelargestpercentageofrenteddwellingswith94.4%(QueenslandGovernmentStatistician’sOffice,2015).

• UnemployedAboriginalpeoplemaybeforcedtomigratefromregionalareastonearbytownsforeconomicreasons.InCloncurry15.9%ofIndigenoushouseswereinneedof1extrabedroomand16.2%inMountIsa(against3.4%and3.6%respectivelyfornon-Indigenoushomes(Pearceetal.,2015).

• Housingavailability/stressisaprobleminattractingandretainingservicesandstaff.

• Accesstoservicespoorandweakerthanmetropolitanareas.

• Highvulnerabilitytofoodandpetrolshortageswhenmainaccessroadsareclosedorfloodedaftermajorweathereventssuchascyclones.

• AlargediscrepancyexistsinquantityandvaluehousingbetweendifferentareasoftheSouthernGulf.EffortstoimprovehousingaccessibilityareneededinareassuchasMornington,DoomadgeeandCarpentaria.

• MorningtonandDoomadgeehavenoformalhousingmarket.Home-ownershipcouldbeencouragedtocreatelong-termwealthandsenseofplace.

• AtJTHCsomeclientmotivationsandbehavioursarenotfullyunderstood.Itisparticularlyinterestingthatsomeclientsareregularly‘recycling’throughtheCentre(andotherservices)andbecoming,ineffect,longtermstayers.Thislongtermneedmayindicateaservicegapintheregion,especiallyaspublichousingisunder-resourced(Memmott&Nash,2012).

3.0Peopleintheregionaregenerallywellhoused.Housingavailabilitymakesretentionaproblem.HousingstressandlowhomeownershipremainaprobleminIndigenouscommunities.

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• Disparityisexacerbatedbynopublictransport.Therearehighhealthneedsinvulnerablecommunitiesandlackofaccesstoservicesexacerbatesthis(personalcommunicationwithS.Knight,DirectorJCUMtIsaCentreforRural&RemoteHealth,20/10/2015).

• Thereisaneedformorehouses.Overcrowdedandpublichousingpoorlyconstructedandnotbuilttoendure,e.g.,toiletsinremotecommunitiesarenotbuiltforsustainability.ThereisnolowcosthousinginMountIsa.Campsitesaresetupforworkers.Couchsurfingoccurs(personalcommunicationwithS.Knight,DirectorJCUMtIsaCentreforRural&RemoteHealth,20/10/2015).

• Powerstationhasjustfinishedbeingbuiltandthedownturnintheresourcessectorhasrelievedsomepressureonthehousingmarket(personalcommunicationwithS.Knight,DirectorJCUMtIsaCentreforRural&RemoteHealth,20/10/2015).

• TheJimaylyaTopsyHarryCentre(JTHC)inMountIsahasbeenprovidingsafetemporaryaccommodationtohomelessIndigenouspeoplesince2003.Between30and40clientsareinresidenceonmostdayshoweverthenumbersriseconsiderablyduringwinter,rainyperiodsandespeciallyduringtheMountIsarodeoandcertainfootballevents.Thehighestrecordednumberofclients(180)occurredwhenanIndigenousteamplayedinthelocalAustralianFootballLeague(AFL)final(Memmott&Nash,2012).

• AsmorepeoplemovetoliveinMountIsa,therateofmobilityandtheresultingpressureonhousingandinfrastructureareevident.Althoughmanyvisitorsstaywithrelatives,lackoffinancialandothersupportcanleadtoaperiodofpublicplacedwellingwhichinturnoftenresultsinriskyriverbedbingedrinkingbehaviour(Memmott&Nash,2012).

3.6Communitysafety,riskandriskmanagement.

• Spatiallyidentifiedflood,cyclone,droughtandothernaturalriskratios.

• Levelsofcommunityresponseandinsurance.

• Criminality/responsereportingindicators.

• Thereisanecdotalevidenceofruralcommunitiesknowingwhattodointhecaseofextremeevents(duetohighcontactwithvariabilityinclimateandweather).

• Verystrongdisasterpreparednessandresponsemechanismsinplacethoughrequireimprovedinformationflows(e.g.,radar/floodmonitoring).

• CycloneYasi(Category5)causedsignificantenvironmentalandpropertydamagebetweentheeastcoastlineandMountIsaduetowind,floodingandtorrentialrain(Felderhof&Poon,2011).

• Thefloodingin2009and2014causedpropertydamageandinsubsequentyearsincreasedfuelloadsleadingtoincreased

• Strongcommunitypreparednessandresponsemechanismsbutimprovedrealtimedatasystemsarerequired.

• Growingstressesareemergingfrompolicy(NDRRAandinsurancefailures).

• CommunityandsafetyissuesassociatedwithcriminalityareofimportanceinMountIsaandIndigenouscommunities.

• Identifiedbarrierstoimprovingresiliencieshaveincluded:thetransientnatureofemergencyservicepersonnel;thecentralisationofservicesleadingtofurther

3.0Regionhasnotsufferedaseriesofmajornaturaldisastersoverlast10years.Naturaldisasterresponseandinsurancepoliciesarelikelytocause

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fires(personalcommunication,SGC)• In2011followingsignificantfloodeventsinBrisbaneand

muchofregionalQueensland,itwasdiscoveredthatmanyinsurersdidnotincludefloodcoverageintheircontentinsurancepolicies(TreasuryAustralian,2011).

• Cycloneswerefullycoveredbymostinsurersmeaningmostpolicy-holdersclaiminglossordamagefromCycloneYasiwerecompensatedbytheirinsurers(TreasuryAustralian,2011).

• FollowingCycloneYasisomeinsurersincreasedtheirpremiumsbyupto300%(TreasuryAustralian,2011).

• GovernmentNDRRAarrangementsarerelativelycentralised,bureaucraticandinflexible,resultinginreducedbettermentoutcomespostdisaster.

• Therateoffraud-basedcrimesincreasedby31%,robberyoffencesincreasedby13%andarmedrobberyoffencesdecreasedby18%inNorthernQldbetween2009and2010(Field,2010).Gulfimplicationsarelikelytobelesssignificant.

• InMountIsa,negativepeoplerelatedfactorssuchasthelevelofcrime,alcoholanddrugabuse,andtheinfluxofhomelessandunemployedaboriginalswerelistedby14%ofrespondents(Pearceetal.,2015).

• Peopleintheregionfeelsafe.Violenceoccursinpocketsandisnotrandom.Thepoliceforceisproactive.DisparitybetweenMountIsa,Indigenousareasandruraltowns.

• AlcoholisexacerbatingaccidentsandinjurywhilethedrugiceisnotyetahugeproblemandnotnewinMountIsa(personalcommunicationwithS.Knight,DirectorJCUMtIsaCentreforRural&RemoteHealth,20/10/2015).

• IntheSouthernGulftherewere8,885reportedoffencesin2014–15,or25,199per100,000persons.874offencesagainsttheperson,or2,479per100,000persons.2,426offencesagainstproperty,or6,880per100,000persons.Withintheregion,MountIsa(C)LGAhadthehighestnumberofreportedoffenceswith5,175or22,846per100,000persons.Incomparison,Queenslandis587per100,000offencesagainstthepersonand4,140per100,000offencesagainstproperty(QueenslandGovernmentStatistician’sOffice,2015).

marginalisationofremotelocations;inconsistenciesinemergencymanagementproceduresinurbancomparedwithremotecommunities;limitedfundingfromgovernmentsfordisasterpreparednessandmitigationworks;andlimitedaccesstoremotelocationsandthelackofcapabilityforevacuationfromtheseareasinanemergency(Birdetal.,2013,p.3).

increasedstress.CrimeratesarenotableinMountIsaandIndigenouscommunities.

2015ResilienceRating 18.5MaximumforthisAttribute 30

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9.4 AttributeFour:Governance

AttributeComponents

PossiblePressure,StateandTendIndicators


4.1Structuralintegrityofregionalgovernancesystem.

• Presenceofallrequiredstructuralcomponents(visionsettingtoMonitoringandEvaluation(M&E))acrosseconomic,socialandNRMsector.

• Strategic/regulatorysystemsforwaterallocation,vegetationmanagement,airpollutionandbiodiversitymanagementarerelativelystableunderQldlegislation.

• NRMsectorhasrevampedregionalNRMplan,butdeliverycapacityiscurrentlydecliningduetochangesinnationalNRMframework(AllanDaleetal.,inpress).

• AchievingoutcomesintheSGCNRMregionisalmostentirelydependentoninvestmentsbystateandfederalgovernmentsinenablingSGCtoworkwithlocallandmanagers,localgovernments,stateagenciesandotherregionalNRMbodiesandcommunitypartners(SouthernGulfCatchmentsNRM,2015).

• Economicdevelopmentsector(e.g.,RDAT&NWandMITEZ)haverecentlyrevampedstrategicpriorities,thoughdelivery,implementationandmonitoringframeworksarelimitedbyavailablecapacitiesandresources.

• Humanandsocialservicessectorhasveryweakstrategicplanningfocuswithexceptionofstate-basedhealthandeducationsystems.Newhospitalboardshaverecentlyrevitalisedhealthplanning,butlossofMedicareLocalsystemmayseeadeclineinintegrationbetweenprimaryandsecondaryhealth.

• Localgovernmentplanningframeworksarereasonablewelldevelopmentandimplementeddespiteresourcelimitations.

• StrategiccapacityofGulfSavannaDevelopmentiscurrentlyinflux.

• Regionallanduseplanningframeworksareparticularlyweak(Rebegetz,Arthur,&Agius,2014).

• WildRiverslegislationrepealedinQldasnewplanninglawsintroducedtoprotectrivers(Rebegetzetal.,2014).Morningtoninlet,SettlementandtheGregoryCatchmentwereallpreviouslydeclaredwildrivers.

• StructuralintegrityofNRMandeconomicsectorsarecurrentlyreasonablebutstable.

• Structuralintegrityofthehumanservicessectorweakwiththeexceptionofprimaryhealthcare,policingandschool-basededucationsystems.

• Currentlyfewlinkagesbetweenstrategiceffortsofall(economic,naturalresourceandsocialservicessectors).

3.0InvestmentinstrategicapproacheslimitedineconomicandNRMsectorsandweakinsocialsector.Regionaldeliverycapacitiesaregenerallyweak.Limitedmonitoringandevaluationofstrategicefforts.

4.2Connectivitywithinandamongkeydecisionmakinginstitutionsandsectors.

• Expertbasedindicatorofinstitutionalconnectivity.

• ConnectivitybetweenNRMbody,traditionalowners,humanservicesector,localgovernmentandkeyindustryplayershasstabilisedbutremainsweak.

• HistoricallypoorlinkagesbetweenregionalNRMandcouncils.

• Connectivityamongregionalinstitutionshasbeendisruptedthroughleadershipchangesandchangedfundingmodels.

• Seriousseveranceinstrategiclinkageswithinandacrossscienceinstitutionsis

2.5Currentfederal/statefundingmodelshave

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• LimitedconnectivitybetweentheNRM,economicdevelopmentandsocialsectors.

• NRMisdependentongovernmentfundingandpriorities,andprogramssuchasweedcontrolareverydependentonthisfundingandtheireffectivenesshangsinthebalancewithcorepersonnel,theirconnectionsandknowledgebeingpivotalintheeffectivenessofprograms.

• ClearconnectionbetweenregionalinterestsandhigherleverRDAregionalandcrossregionalstrategicinterests.

• TraditionallystrongNRMsectorlinkagestosciencecommunitypartiallyrestoredviaMonsoonalClimateCluster.

• ‘Isasafe’isaprojectbetweenQldpoliceservices,QldambulanceServices,QldFireandEmergencyServices,MountIsaHospital,MountIsaShireCouncil,AlcoholandOtherDrugServicesandRACQCareflight.

• Thelocalgovernmentworkswellandinteragenciescommunicationisstrong.Police-CitizensYouthClub(PCYC)isverystrong(personalcommunicationwithS.Knight,DirectorJCUMtIsaCentreforRural&RemoteHealth,20/10/2015).

slowlybeingrebuilt.• Strongconnectivitycanbeandisbeing

fosteredbytheconnectiveactionsoflocalpoliticians.

• TheSGCNRMisnotwellresourcedtocollaboratewithotherinstitutionsandgovernmenttoputmanagementactionsinplace.TheSGCNRMhasthecapacitytoformlinkstoresearchinstitutions,thoughthecultureoftheresearchisnotsuitedtodeliberatepartnerships(Daleetal.,2014).

increasedcompetitivenessandshorttermism.Regionalcapacitiestomaximiseconnectivitylow.

4.3Adaptivemanagementcapacityofkeydecisionmakinginstitutionsandsectors.

• Expertbasedindicatorofregionalleadershipandcapacity.

• Strategicplanningcapacityofregionalcouncils,SouthernGulfNRMandGSDimprovingbutstillseriouslyhamperedbyresourceconstraintsandabilitytoattractandretainstaff.

• Strategiccapacitieswithinthepastoralsectorarealsoaffectedbydebtanddrought,thoughAgforceagencyandrepresentationisimprovingintheregion.

• Traditionalownerinstitutionalcapacitieshavebeensteadilyimprovingbutcanbesubjecttochange.

• Limitedcapacityfortheconsiderationofclimatechangewithintheeconomicandsocialsector.ConsiderationofclimatechangeisimprovingintheinfrastructureandNRMsectors.

• Thereisnosystematiccatchment-focusedplanningapproachfortheGulfRiversthatrecognisestheneedtoaddressthreatsbeyondindividualproperties,exploretheinteractionbetweenthreatsandmanagementaction,andprotect/restorenaturalfloraandfauna(Daleetal.,2014).

• StateandcommonwealthenvironmentalplanninghasbeencentrallydrivenfromBrisbaneandCanberra.Thereisalackofsmall-scalevisionacrossfederal,stateandregionalinterests(Daleetal.,2014).

• Strategiccapacityofkeyregionalandsub-regionalinstitutionshasbeenunstablebutgenerallyimproving.

• Generalstrategiccapacityofkeyinstitutionsremainschronicallylimitedbyavailableresources.Thehumanservicessectorhaslostleadershipcapacitywithservicechanges.

• CapacitytoattractandretainstrategicCEO-levelleadershiphighlylinkedtohousing,servicesandlocalinstitutionalleadership(Dechastel&Stark,2014).

• Institutionswillhaveagreatercapacityforchangethroughdirectcontactwithpeopleandcommunities,ratherthanthroughfederalandstatepolicies.

2.5Institutionalcapacitiesseverelyaffectedbyremotenessandcentralised,shorttermfundingmodels.

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4.4Adaptiveuseandmanagementofintegratedknowledgesets.

• Expertbasedindicatorofregionalleadershipandcapacity.

• Scienceinvestmentintheregionhasbeenlimitedandpoorlycoordinated,thoughkeyregionalinstitutionshavekeylinkagesandgoodknowledgeoflocationandvalueofexistingknowledge.

• Thereisarelativelystrongregionalacceptanceandrespectfortraditionalandhistoricalknowledge.

• Economicandsocialdatawithintheregionareweakandfragmentedandnotabletoadequatelytrackshorttermchanges.

• Theregionisstillsomewayoffhavinglong-termconditionandtrendassessmentinmonitoringofnaturalresourcesandtheintegrationofsocialandeconomic(includinggovernance)dataisembryonic.

• Currentlylimiteduseofeffectivedecisionsupporttoolstointegratedataintodecision-makingandadaptivemanagementprocesses,butbeingexplored.

• Strongregionalbeefextensionframeworksareinplace,supportedbyregionalNRMarrangements.

• NRMintheFlinderscatchmenthasbeeninformedbyextensiveresearchwithmajorinstitutions,butthereisnolong-termregionalagendathatintegrateslocalandscientificknowledge(Daleetal.,2014).

• Researchisoftenwellusedbystakeholders,butthereislimitedsciencecapacity(Daleetal.,2014).

• TheNorthQueenslandIrrigationAgriculturalStrategy(NQIAS)knowledgeisnotwellconnectedtotheregionalvisionanddecisionmaking(Daleetal.,2014).

• Councilsreactandadaptwellbutcanbeslowtomodernisethroughtechnology.JCUandCloncurryShirepartneredtoprovideaccesstohealthcarecoursesthatwouldnothavebeenavailableotherwise(videoconferencingforexample).

• JCUremotehealthfacilitiesoperateinMountIsabutfindithardtorecruitandretainstafftomeetthehealthneedsandgeography.Bycreatingacademicsupport,JCUcanbuildcapacityinthearea.Ithasaringfencedbudget.Theypartnerwithindustrytocapacitybuildinthecommunityanddepartments(personalcommunicationwithS.Knight,DirectorJCUMtIsaCentreforRural&RemoteHealth,20/10/2015).

• Whiletherearedatalimitations,theregionhasareasonablyhighcapacityofaccessanduseawiderangeofdata.

• Scienceeffortandcoordinationhasdeclinedwithchangingcommonwealthandstatefundingmodels,includingbeefextension,butmaybesomeimprovementthroughthenewNESPframework.

• Thereisstillasignificantdisconnectbetweenresearchinstitutionsandprimaryproducersintheregion.

• Beneficial,applicableresearchexistsbutconnectivityneedsimprovement.

• Improvedspatialdatamanagement,manuals,extensionoflandmanagementpractices,andmorerecentmonitoringofbiodiversityandlandconditioninformregionalprogramsarerequired(Daleetal.,2014).

3.0Regionalculturefortheuseofscienceisstrong.Significantandstrategicscienceeffortisweak.

2015ResilienceRating 11MaximumforthisAttribute 20

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Notes

• AllOfficeandEconomicandSocialResearchdataisacombinationofthestatisticalinformation/censusdataforDoomadgeeAboriginalShire,BurkeShireand

MorningtonShireandincorporatespartsofMountIsaCity,CloncurryShire,McKinlayShire,RichmondShireandFlindersShire

• TheSouthernGulfcatchmentsregionfallsacrosstheNorthWeststatisticalregions.

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