Conclusion 1: Bringing it all Together

• Participation forms for simulation due now

• Thursday’s class will start at 11:20 to give you time to complete the online class evaluation

• Thursday will be exam review. Come prepared with questions

November 24, 2014 2

Agenda

• Final exam overview• Course feedback• Forest policy futures

– Short term• BC Liberal Future• What if the NDP had

won?

• Longer Term• Barriers to more

sustainable policyNovember 24, 2014 3

Final Exam• December 3 – 3:30-5:30 FSC

1005

• 2 hour exam

• All material from policy agenda+ formulation forward

• Responsible for themes for whole course (final list discussed in class Thursday)

• Responsible for specifics of readings and lectures only from decision-making (October 28) forward except section of Chap 1 ISOS on policy cycle

4

Course Organization• Forces at work framework• Cases

– Mountain Pine Beetle -> midterm timber supply

– Forest carbon

• How government works• Interest Groups: Strategies and Resources• First Nations – Transformation of Governance• International Context, US Influence• Policy Cycle

– Agenda-setting and Policy Formulation

– Decision-making and Policy Design (FRPA)

– Implementation (EBM-GBR)

• New Values: Carbon (and Bio-energy)• Comparisons• Barriers to change (today)

November 24, 2014 5

What are the two most significant things you learned in

this course?

November 24, 2014 6

Most significant learnings

7

8

Course Organization• Forces at work framework• Cases

– Mountain Pine Beetle -> midterm timber supply

– Forest carbon

• How government works• Interest Groups: Strategies and Resources• First Nations – Transformation of Governance• International Context, US Influence• Policy Cycle

– Agenda-setting and Policy Formulation

– Decision-making and Policy Design (FRPA)

– Implementation (EBM-GBR)

• New Values: Carbon (and Bio-energy)• Comparisons• Barriers to change (today)

November 24, 2014 9

What are the two things you most wanted to learn about that

were missing?

November 24, 2014 10

What’s missing?

November 24, 2014 11

Future Directions

• Short term– BC Liberal Future– What if the NDP had won?

• Longer term

Christy Clark Forest Policy

• Mandate letter for appointment of Minister Steve Thomson

MFLNRO mandate letter (1)

MFLNRO mandate letter (2)

MFLNRO mandate letter (3)

Christy Clark Forest Policy

• Major Campbell initiatives that seem to be continued– Greenhouse gas reductions?

• Pacific Carbon Trust eliminated, function retained• Pressure on forests will increase to offset LNG

emissions

– Aboriginal reconciliation• signs of move away from treaty focus but that was

underway• Huge challenges in responding to Tsilhqot’in case

An almost NDP Future

NDP Platform

• New funds• Expanded reforestation• Updated inventory,

more R&D on adaptation

• Restriction on log exports

• Reduce wood waste, create bio-energy opportunities

http://www.bcndp.ca/files/BCNDP-Platform-2013-Web.pdf

Longer Term? Values

What values will we be managing for?• Resurgent commodities• Carbon• Bioenergy• Biodiversity• Recreation• Aesthetics

Longer Term? Governance

Governance• Status quo• Corporatization• Privatization• Decentralization• Co-jurisdiction

http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hth/timber-tenures/apportionment/index.htm

Longer Term? Governance

Governance• Status quo• Corporatization• Privatization• Decentralization• Co-jurisdiction

http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hth/timber-tenures/apportionment/index.htm

Policies for SFM (Luckert et al)

• SFM: optimizing 3 dimensions – now and in the future– Economic– Environmental– Social

• Diagnosis: failure (too strong?)

Policy obstacles (Luckert et al)

• Undue focus on sustained yield of timber• Insufficiently comprehensive rights

– Growing trees– Multiple timber species– Energy– Non-market

• Forced vertical integration (abandoned in BC)• Inefficient land use zoning• Overly stringent regulation

Principles for Change

• Integrative management of jointly produced resources

• Flexibility• Innovation• Clarity

Barriers: Why aren’t we doing better?

• Intellectual– Value differences– Uncertainties

• Political opposition from those benefitting from the status quo

• Decision rule that advantage opponents to change

• Institutional mismatch• Path dependence

Path dependence

• “once a policy or institutional path is established, entrenched mindsets, interests, and institutions make departures from the status quo difficult to envision” (Luckert et al)

Final theme

• Potential beneficial policy changes are frequently thwarted by intellectual, political, and/or institutional obstacles. Path dependence increases the costs of change.

• Participation forms for simulation due now

• Thursday’s class will start at 11:20 to give you time to complete the online class evaluation

• Thursday will be exam review. Come prepared with questions

November 24, 2014 31