concorde research note march 2006

RESEARCH REPORT

Concorde Oil & Gas plc

March 2006

VSA Resources is committed to providing objective research. This report has beencommissioned by Concorde Oil & Gas plc and is therefore unlikely to be perceived asobjective. Your attention is further drawn to the disclaimer at the end of this research report.

Investment Summary: A bright prospect beckonsConcorde is acquiring Pechora Energy, a Russian company, which holds the licence foroil and gas production at the Luzskoye oil field in the Timan-Pechora Basin of the KomiRepublic, with 33 m barrels (bbls) of 3P reserves, which have been certified by Miller &Lents of Houston, Texas. The untested further upside potential of the field is separatelyestimated at 12 m bbls. Crude oil production is currently 250 barrels per day (bpd) butthis is expected to rise significantly once Concorde starts developing the field later thisyear. We estimate that peak production of just under 12000 bpd could be achieved in2010. We expect positive cash flow in 2008 reaching a peak in year 2012. Furtherproduction is expected to be added when a number of identified, currently‘stranded’ oil fields in the area, are acquired.

Rail TerminalIts wholly-controlled export rail terminal, with a current capacity of 16000 bpd, whichcan be doubled with a relatively small outlay, allows the Company great flexibility inthe way it can get its oil to market. It is not dependent on Transneft and the capacityconstraints that currently affect the Russian pipeline system.

Fund RaisingAt the time of its admission on AIM, Concorde is raising up to £25m in equity financeto be used in (a) acquiring Pechora Energy; (b) to shoot 3D Seismic on the field; (c) todrill a number of development wells; (d) to evaluate and acquire other prospects inthe region; and, (e) for working capital purposes.

Valuation We estimate that the value of Concorde, assuming all reserves are developed, adeclining and constant oil price, high transport costs and onerous export duties, witha 10 % discount factor to be between £52.6m - £80.0 million. This will increase oncethe proposed fiscal regime for the oil industry is approved by the Dumas. In addition,if we use the value that the stock market is assigning to the Proven and Probablereserves of certain companies that operate in the Russian Federation, thenConcorde’s valuation is much higher at between £118m - 219m.

Year End Revenue (£’m) PBT* (£m) EPS*(p) DPS (p) PE (x) Yield (%)

2005a 0 -0.015 n/a 0 n/a 0

2006e 8.3 -7.4 n/a 0 n/a 0

2007e 53.9 2.6 n/a 0 n/a 0

2008e 125.7 21.8 n/a 0 n/a 0

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding goodwill amortisation and exceptional items

Admission to AIM and acquisition ofexciting hydrcarbon assets in the Timan-Pechora basin of Russia

Concorde Oil & Gas plcPrice 9p

Market Cap £16.4m

SHARE DETAILS

CODE CDE

LISTING Ofex

SECTOR Speciality & other finance

SHARES IN ISSUE 182m

PRICE

52 weeks

High Low

15.5p 2.5p

BALANCE SHEET

Debt/Equity (%) 0

NAV (£m) 80 - 221

(Net borrowings)/Cash (£m) 0.2

BUSINESS

GEOGRAPHY (based on revenues)

UK EUROPE US OTHER

0% 0% 0% 100 %

ANALYST

Brian McBeth 020 7628 3989

[email protected]

SALES

Neil Pidgeon 020 7628 3989

[email protected]

Since it was floated on Ofexlast September, Concorde hasevaluated a significant number ofpotential hydrocarbon deals in theRussian Federation and the FSU.With the acquisition of PechoraEnergy, Concorde is set to becomea relatively large crude oilproducer over the next 36 months.

2005 200615.00

8.00

0.62

S N J M

4 CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH

Investment summary: A Russian Play

Fasten your seat belts – steep sharetake-off Concorde was founded in 2005 by Peter Hughesand John Rigby, two former Texaco executiveswith great experience in Russia, to acquireattractive, producing and near producing assets in the Russian Federation and the FSU. TheCompany was floated on Ofex at the end ofSeptember 2005, raising £190,000 net ofexpenses, which funded the Company’s initialevaluation programme. In December 2005, theCompany raised a further £1 m to evaluate indepth possible hydrocarbon deals in the RussianFederation and the FSU. After an exhaustivesearch, Concorde settled on acquiring PechoraEnergy (PE) in the Komi Republic with itsproducing Luzskoye field with currently Proven,Probable and Possible reserves of 33 m bbls thathave been verified by Miller and Lents. The fieldcould contain a further 12 m bbls of recoverablereserves, for a total of 45 m bbls.

Conservative valuation withsignificant upsideWe have modelled the Luzskoye field using arange of reserves from Proven (10 m bbls) toProven, Probable, Possible and Upside potential(45 m bbls), and a constant and declining oil pricescenario with a starting price of $60/bbl. We havealso assumed that from the end of 2007, 70 % ofproduction is exported with the rest sold to thedomestic market. A starting Oil Export Duty of$27.08/bbl. A Mineral Resources Extraction Tax of16.5 % from January 1, 2007. Transport costs arerelatively high at around $7.40/bbl because the oilhas to be sent by rail. It is likely to remain highbecause of a lack of pipeline capacity and rollingstock capacity to move the oil. Finally, acorporation tax of 24 % has been applied on thenominal profits made. We have run a number ofsensitivities using various discount factors thatrange from 10 % to 25 % and under constant oilprices and declining oil prices. The project isrobust even at a 25 percent discount rate and withdeclining oil prices.

Challenges of operating in RussiaThe Company faces three main challenges:

(1) To develop and operate the field, especiallyusing horizontal drilling techniques. AlthoughRussia was the first country to drill horizontalwells, the level of expertise of the drillingcrews in this particular discipline is generallylow.

(2) To maintain strict cost discipline. There is ageneral price escalation in the cost of drillingand completing wells worldwide, andtransport costs, and Russia is no exception.This is likely to escalate as activity in the area increases over the next few years.

(3) If deemed applicable, a paraffin separatorplant could take longer to construct thanexpected because it has to be imported into the country.

The possibility of the oil price weakening isalways a fundamental point of concern as it is the main driver in the sector, but this is one areawhere we do not expect any weakness for someyears to come.

Positive cash flow in 2008We estimate that the Luzskoye field is profitableat current crude oil prices, even when producingonly the Proven reserves. It is more profitablewhen the Probable and Possible reserves areproduced, generating a profit of $3.85/bbl. Ofgreater significance perhaps is that the Companywill be generating positive net cash flow in 2008after repaying part of the debt used to developthe field. We expect Concorde to have net cashbalances of just under $3.0 m at the end of 2008.

HistoryConcorde was founded by Peter Hughes and John Rigby,two former Texaco executives with great experience inRussia, in 2005 to acquire attractive assets in the RussianFederation and the FSU. The Company was floated onOfex at the end of September 2005, raising £190,000 net of expenses, which funded the Company’s initialevaluation programme. In December 2005, the Companyraised a further £1 m to evaluate in depth possiblehydrocarbon deals in the Russian Federation and the FSU.

The Acquisition of PecherskaiaEnergeticheskaia Compania (PE)After an exhaustive search, Concorde settled on acquiringfor $25m the entire equity capital of PecherskaiaEnergeticheskaia Compania (Pechora Energy or PE), aRussian company established in 1998, and which holds thelicence for oil and gas production at the Luzskoye oil fieldin the Timan-Pechora Basin of the Komi Republic. Thetotal oil in place at the Luzskoye field is calculated at over100 m bbls, with Proven, Probable and Possible reservesof 33 m bbls. As part of the purchase, Concorde is alsoacquiring a recently operational rail terminal from whichto export its hydrocarbon production. Additionally, PEowns a maintenance base at Kadgerom, the nearest townto the field, a fleet of trucks, a drilling rig and other realestate facilities.

The Luzskoye FieldMiller and Lents Ltd., a leading independent reservesestimator with significant experience in Russia, hascalculated that the Luzskoye field has Proven (P1) reservesof 10.1 m bbls, with a Probable (P2) reserves of 11.7 mbbls and Possible (P3) reserves of 11.3 m bbls. Total oil inplace is calculated at over 100 m bbls. The untested,further upside potential of the field is separatelycalculated at 12 m bbls recoverable by GeoServis, a highlyexperienced Moscow-based Geological Consultancy.

Crude oil production is currently 250 barrels per day (bpd)but this is expected to rise significantly once Concordestarts investing in the field later this year. We estimate

that peak production of just under 12000 bpd could beachieved in 2010. It should be noted that by acquiring PE,Concorde owns 100 % of PE’s production, unlike othercompanies with production sharing contracts.

The acquisition of PE is expected to cost Concorde $20-25m, with a guaranteed initial capital expenditure on thefield of at least $10m in the first two years. The guaranteeis not an onerous one because it is clear that the capitalexpenditure involved in developing the field is greaterthan $10m.

Concorde will pursue an aggressive development plan,drilling a number of horizontal wells, which together withvertical wells are expected to deplete the reservoir in themost efficient manner. As a result, we expect positive cashflow in 2008 reaching a peak in year 2012.

Further ReservesFurther production is expected to be added when anumber of identified, currently ‘stranded’, oil fields in the area, are acquired. Its wholly-controlled export railterminal, with a current capacity of 16000 bpd, and which can double with a relatively small outlay, allows the Company great flexibility in the way it gets its oil to market as it is not dependent on Transneft and thecapacity constraints that currently affect the Russianpipeline system.

Management and Operational CentresThe management of PE is supervised by Rus-Oil, acompany registered in Altaysky Kray, which alsosupervises drilling and markets the Company’s crude oil. It is understood that Rus-Oil has a contract to drill 11 oilwells at a total cost of around $10 m.

Apart from the Luzskoye field, PE also owns amaintenance base at Kadgerom, some 40 kilomtres awayfrom the field, a fleet of trucks and transport vehicles, asmall work-over drilling rig and other real estate facilities.Concorde will also acquire as part of the purchase price arail terminal from which to export its hydrocarbonproduction.

VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 5

The road to Kadgerom

The Luzskoye Field

6

The main administrative office of PE is in Pechora City,some 200 kms away, where it employs 20 office staff. Inthe Luzskoye field and Kadgerom town, the Companyemploys a further 69 people, made up mainly of two 30-man drilling crews on rotation. At the field headquarters,there are heated workshops, garages and storage areasto support field activities along with trucks, transportvehicles, bulldozers and fire control services. There arealso storage facilities for 4000 bbls of oil together withstorage facilities at PE’s Kadgerom rail terminal forapproximately 3500 bbls, of which a third is keptunderground.

The Luzskoye Field

A. RESERVES

The field consists of up to seven Devonian age reservoirs,which have tested high grade, low sulphur 40 API oil, witha paraffin content variously reported as between 13 % -16%. The geological structure is a simple one, with three,vertically stacked reservoir zones, facilitating a relativelysimple development. The field extends over an area of just under 21 square kilometres, with the producinghorizons found at depths that range from 1700 - 2200metres. The Proven, Probable and Possible reservesdetailed in the Miller & Lents report of just under 33 m bbls are contained in five reservoirs:

CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH

TheThe LuzskoyeLuzskoye FieldField

Luzskoye Field

Source: Concorde Oil & Gas

Table I: Luzskoye Field Proven, Probable & PossibleReserves, March 2006 (m bbls)

Reserves Oil Gas

Proved 10.06 0

Probable 11.66 0

Possible 11.25 0

TOTAL 32.97 0

Source: Miller & Lents

The reserves stated above were verified by Miller & Lentsof Houston, Texas, using data obtained from the AllRussia Research Geological Oil Institute (VNIGNI).Additionally, a further two possible reservoir horizons havebeen identified in the Devonian, with untested estimatedrecoverable reserves of around 12 m bbls as calculated byGeoServis.

The location of the field in the Komi Republic is given onthe map on page 6.

The licence to develop and operate the field expires in2014, along with most other licences in the area, but it isconfidently expected that an extension will be granted aslong as the field is developed in a competent manner.

B. PRODUCTION HISTORY

Since 1965, all four wells drilled on the field have been oil discoveries, with cumulative production up to thebeginning of this year of around 141,000 bbls. Over thepast two years production from the field averaged 103bpd, utilising various zones in different wells toaccommodate work on surface facilities but is currentlyproducing around 250 bpd from well No. 201, shownbelow, from one reservoir zone after an electricsubmersible pump was installed. Current production isseverely limited by ‘poor boy’ surface infrastructure butwith improved drilling and completion techniques, andstimulation of the wells, we expect production to rise toaround 300 bpd or higher. Clearly, this does not take intoaccount the significant potential from other testedreservoir zones. In addition, one of the reservoir zones isplanned to be depleted by the use of horizontal wells,improving production rates substantially from thestandard vertical wells used at the moment.

Two further wells have recently been re-completed, withwell No. 302, shown below, expected to come on-streamwithin the next month. In mid-April/May, a new well is tobe drilled at what is deemed the crestal location of thestructure.

Well 201 – the current producing well


Drilling Well 302 at the end of February

PE has the operatorship of four potential production wellson the field, one of which is currently leased from LUKOILand which accounted for 75 % of total production of justover 31,000 bbls in 2005. Although the oil produced isextremely sweet (sulphur 0.2%), and in great demand, itdoes contain a reported 13 % -16 % paraffin. This meansthat the oil is sold on average at a 15 % discount to theUrals Blend marker and a 30 % discount to the domesticprice.

PE’s crude oil production is trucked from the field to theCompany’s own rail terminal of Kadgerom, which issituated 40 kilometres away. PE maintains 20 kilometres ofthe road as well as a pontoon bridge. The use of therailroad allows the Company to by-pass the limit of 33 %imposed by Transneft, the state-owned pipeline company,for transporting the oil. It is likely that in 2006, allproduction will be sold to the Afipsky oil refinery in theKrasnodar region of Russia as domestic oil sales.

C. DEVELOPMENT PLAN OF THE FIELD

The development plan included in the Miller & Lentsreport is highly conservative and follows closely the planset out by VNIGNI in 2004. The plan depletes the reservesover 18 years and calls for 212 wells to be drilled,including 80 recompletions, using a 500-metre spacingbetween wells.

It is likely that Concorde will shoot an extensive 3D-Seismic programme over the field to determine withgreater accuracy the distribution of the producing wells.The spacing needed to deplete the field is likely to bebetween 600 metres to 800 metres, reducing considerablythe capital needed to develop the field. In addition, onereservoir in particular is likely to be depleted by drilling anumber of horizontal wells. The cost of drilling a verticalwell and a horizontal well is estimated at under $1m andjust under $2m respectively.

In addition, Concorde will evaluate the applicability of aparaffin separation plant to the project by running a testfacility and full chemical analysis of the oil. It is probable,however, that at the end of the test that a paraffinseparation unit, costing an estimated $3-5m, will beinstalled at the field headquarters to separate out theparaffin, increasing considerably the marketability of theoil. Finally, an oil-gathering pipeline on the field is likely tobe installed at a cost of $1 m as well as a 40-km pipelineto the rail terminal, which would cost $3m. The intra-fieldpipeline will make it easier to get the oil out during thesummer months and save on the maintenance costs ofthe access roads.

The chart given below shows the production profile thatwe would expect from the fully developed field. On theconservative Miller & Lents development plan, peak


Source: Concorde Oil & Gas

Luzskoye Field: E-W Geological Cross-section

production of just over 8000 bpd is reached in 2013. Onour more aggressive development plan, we haveproduction peaking at just under 12,000 bpd in 2010,assuming 45m bbls are produced.

D. THE RAIL TERMINAL AT KADGEROM

The Company’s rail terminal has just become operationalat a cost of just over $1m. The current loading facility can handle five 450 bbls rail cars but there is enoughexpansion room for a further 15 rail cars, giving totalexport capacity of 9000 bbls per delivery.

The advantage of owning a rail terminal is that 100 % ofthe Company’s oil can be exported out of the countrybecause there is no limitation to how much oil is exportedusing the rail system. Transneft, the oil pipeline operator,imposes a 33 % limit on the total produced by a companythat can be exported using its pipeline system. Inaddition, by such a rail terminal Concorde can develop‘stranded’ oilfields in the region much faster than itscompetitors, given that there is an export route availableto deliver the oil to market. The oil can be sent by rail toeither the Baltic ports, in particular Primorsk, or toTikhorestskaya in Southern Russia, near to the port ofNovorossiysk.


Source: Miller & Lents and VSA estimates

Concorde Oil's Kadgerom Rail Terminal

Concorde’s possible production profile

CPR VSA 3P Production VSA 3P+Upside

14000.0

12000.0

10000.0

8000.0

6000.0

4000.0

2000.0

0.0

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Sensitivities: three main challengesThe Company faces three main challenges:

1. To develop and operate the field, especially usinghorizontal drilling techniques. Although Russia was thefirst country to drill horizontal wells, the level ofexpertise of the drilling crews in this particulardiscipline is generally low.

2. To maintain strict cost discipline. There is a generalprice escalation in the cost of drilling and completingworldwide, as well as in transport costs, and Russia isno exception. This is likely to escalate as activity in thearea increases over the next few years.

3. If deemed applicable, a proposed paraffin separatorplant could take longer to construct than expectedbecause it has to be imported into the country.

The possibility of the oil price weakening is always afundamental point of concern as it is the main driver inthe sector, but this is one area where we do not expectany weakness for some years to come.

ValuationWe have modelled the Luzskoye field using Provenreserves, 3P Reserves, and 3P + Upside potential reservesand a constant and declining oil price scenario. We haveassumed Proven reserves of 10.1 m bbls and a highreserve level of 33 m bbls, with a further 12 m bbls ofupside potential in our most optimistic scenario. We havealso assumed that from the end of 2007, 70 % of theproduction is exported with the rest sold to the domesticmarket. We have also used various discount factors thatrange from 10 % to 25 % and under constant oil pricesand declining oil prices that fall to $21/bbl. In our model,we have made the following assumptions:• a starting oil price of $60/bbl

• a Mineral Resources Extraction Tax of 16.5 % fromJanuary 1, 2007.

• The Oil Export Duty is calculated using the followingformula: 65 % of the difference between the averageUrals Blend price and $24.33/bbl plus $3.89/bbl. Thismeans that with a price of $60, the export duty is$27.08/bbl.

• Transport costs are relatively high at around $7.40/bbl -this is because the oil has to be sent by rail. It is likelyto remain high because of a lack of pipeline capacityand rolling stock capacity to move the oil.

• Finally, a corporation tax of 24 % has been applied onthe nominal profits made.

As we can see from the table given below the project isrobust using a 25 percent discount rate and with decliningoil prices, giving a net present value that ranges from alow of $19.8 m to a high of $139.3m. If the newfavourable hydrocarbon fiscal regime is approved, thenthe valuation will be considerably higher.

Table II: - Lukzskoye Field NPV (US$m)

Constant Declining

Proven Reserves

Disc Factor 10 % 42.31 32.31

15% 33.84 26.68

20% 28.19 22.72

25% 24.17 19.79

Proven, Probable & Possible (3P) Reserves

Disc Factor 10 % 105.57 69.64

15% 76.48 50.59

20% 57.47 37.85

25% 44.41 28.95

3P + Upside Reserves Potential

Disc Factor 10 % 139.25 91.46

15% 100.99 66.89

20% 75.84 50.31

25% 58.51 38.65

Sources: VSA Resources

Comparative ValuationWe have also compared Concorde with other listedcompanies on the full LSE list, on AIM, and one companyon the Toronto Stock Exchange Venture Board. We cansee from the table given below that Concorde is backedby 53 bbls of Proven and Probable (2P) crude oil reservesper £100 market value, placing it just behind Dragon Oil,the leader of the pack, with 59 bbls per £100 market value.In addition, the market is assigning a value of £1.9/bbl forits 2P reserves, the second lowest in our table.


Table III: Hydrocarbon Reserves per £100 Market Value & Value assigned by Market for Company’s Reserve Base

Share Price Market Hydrocarbon 2P Hydrocarbon 2P Hydrocarbon Value assigned by

p/share Capitalisation Prod. Reserves (m bbls Reserves per £100 market for Co.’s

(17.03.06) (£ millions) (boepd) of oil equivalent) Market cap. (bbls) reserve (£/bbl)

LSE - Full Listing

Burren 1023 1430 8140 119.3 8.3 12.0

Cairn Energy 2176 3477 30200 752 21.6 4.6

Dana Petroleum Plc 975 833.4 25000 124 14.9 6.7

Dragon Oil 213 1086 8385 641 59.0 1.7

Emerald Energy 260 145.6 883 11.8 8.1 12.3

JKX Oil & Gas 313 473.2 8022 56 11.8 8.5

Melrose Resources 373.5 293.9 2900 38.1 13.0 7.7

Premier Oil 909.5 743.5 35300 200 26.9 3.7

Soco International 1014 736.5 5400 72.5 9.8 10.2

Tullow Oil Plc 341 2208 53000 171 7.7 12.9

LSE - AIM

Caspian Energy 132.5 123.5 412 0.5 0.4 247.0

Circle oil 34.75 63.7 0 0 0.0 0.0

Desire petroleum 30.5 87.3 0 0 0.0 0.0

Global Energy Development 292.5 105.4 1100 19.6 18.6 5.4

Hardman Resources 79.5 540.2 1000 22.1 4.1 24.4

Sibir Energy 520 1035 70000 432.4 41.8 2.4

Urals Energy 365 307.7 5600 89.6 29.1 3.4

Victoria Oil & Gas 252.5 258.6 1800(e) 35 13.5 7.4

TSX Venture Board

Valkyries Petroleum Corp £ 6.5 340.2 4000 (e) 33.4 9.8 10.2

Concorde (current market 8.5 41 1100(e) 21.8 53.2 1.9

cap. + £25m est. fund raising)

Source: VSA Resources


There are a number of companies operating in theRussian Federation and the FSU that could be comparedwith Concorde. The closest is the Canadian ValkyriesPetroleum Corp. listed on the Toronto Stock ExchangeVenture Board with a market capitalisation of £340.2m.Valkyries acquired from ZAO Pechoraneftegas a 50 %stake in the Sotchemyu producing field, which is situated40 kilometres away from Kadgerom, with gross reserves of 27.6 m bbls. The oil quality at 29 API is inferior to thatproduced at Luzskoye. Valkyries also holds 106 m bbls ofcrude oil reserves in the Caspian Sea and approximately10600 bbls in Texas. The Company holds total 2P reservesof 33.4m, of which 22m bbls is in the Caspian Sea. The Company’s Timan Pechora reserves of 11.4 m bblsrepresent 34 % of the total reserves or £116m of thecompany’s market capitalization. This means that themarket is assigning a value of £10.1/bbl to its TimanPechora reserves. If we we use the same value onConcorde’s 2P reserves, then the Company can bevalued at £219.2m.

Other companies that could be compared with Concordeare Urals Energy (UEN) and Victoria Oil & Gas (VOG). UEN is an independent exploration and productioncompany that is listed on AIM, with a market capitalisationof £365m. Its main assets are located in Sakhalin Island,Timan-Pechora Basin, and the Republic of Udmurtia. UEN has reported Proven and Probable reserves of 89.6m barrels of oil equivalent, with current production of5600 bpd. The majority of its proven reserves are in the Okruzhnoye field on the eastern coast of SakhalinIsland. Approximately half its production comes from the Okruzhnoye field and from the Peschanoozerskoyefield located on the Kolguyev Island in the Barents Sea, in the offshore extension of the Timan-Pechora Basin.Approximately 50 percent of its Probable reserves arefound in its Nefedovskoye field in the Udmurtia Republic.The Company expects to double its current production to11,000 bpd after an investment programme of US$41m inin-fill drilling, well workovers and recompletions and othermethods.

VOG is another comparable company to Concorde, whichis listed on AIM. VOG was established to acquire oil andgas assets in Russia and Central Asia, getting a listing onAIM in September 2004. It holds reserves of 1.15 bn boe,which have been verified by DeGolyer & McNaughton,the independent consultants, and consist mostly ofnatural gas in its West Medvezhye field in WesternSiberia. The development of this large resource base very much depends on gaining access to Gazprom’s gas-gathering system at its giant Medvezhye field, and intothe export gas pipelines. VOG expects to produce 4400bpd in 2009 from its Kemerkol oil field in Kazakhstan.

If we take the average current value that the marketassigns to the reserves held by UEN and VOG of£5.4/bbl and apply it to Concorde’s reserves, then wewould expect Concorde to be valued at around£117.7m.

FinancialsWe estimate that the Luzskoye field will be profitable for the Company even if only the Proven reserves areproduced. It is clear, as can be seen from the table givenbelow, that using a low reserves base scenario thatConcorde would generate a $1.12/bbl profit. Under ourhigh reserves scenario, the profit per barrel rises to $3.85.We have also assumed that the company takes on debt of $50m to finance the development of the field.

Table IV: Estimated Profitability of PE US$/bbl

Proven Reserves 3P + Upside potential

Base (10.1m bbls) Reserves (45 m bbls)

Crude Oil Price 60.00 60.00

Transport costs 7.40 7.40

Mineral Resources Extraction Tax 9.90 9.90

Export Customs Duty 27.08 27.08

G&A 2.50 1.90

Operating Expenses 2.75 2.25

DDA 7.50 5.40

Interest 1.40 1.0

Pre-Tax 1.47 5.07

Tax 0.35 1.22

Net Income 1.12 3.85


We can see from the table given below that Concorde’srevenue will increase significantly as production rises, and we expect the Company to declare in 2007 a pre-taxprofit of $2.6m and will not pay any corporation taxesbecause of the large pool of tax losses at PE that can beoffset against profits until 2009. Of greater significanceperhaps, is that the Company will be generating net cash flow in 2008 after repaying part of the debt used to develop the field. We expect Concorde to hold a netcash balance of almost $3m at the end of 2008.


Table V: Concorde Oil & Gas - Financials

Year-end 31 December 2005a 2006e 2007e 2008e

$000s $000s $000s $000s

Profit and Loss

Revenue 0 8,300 53,900 125,700

Cost of sales 0 (7,800) (35,200) (71,100)

Gross profit (15) 500 18,700 54,600

EBITDA (30) 1,800 26,300 71,400

Depreciation 0 (1,300) (7,600) (16,700)

Operating profit (before GW and except.) (30) 500 18,700 54,700

Goodwill amortisation 0 0 0 0

Exceptionals 0 0 0 0

Administrative expenses 15 (3,100) (5,400) (10,600)

Operating profit (15) (2,600) 13,300 44,100

Net interest 0 (3,500) (3,100) (2,600)

Effective interest rate on average net debt % 0 0 0 0

Other 0 0 0 0

Exceptionals 0 0 0 0

Profit before tax (norm) (30) (4,300) 8,000 35,400

Profit before tax (FRS 3) (15) (7,400) 2,600 24,800

Tax 0 0 0 (2,976)

Adjustment to tax for normalised earnings 0 0 0 0

Profit after tax (norm) (30) (4,300) 8,000 32,424

Profit after tax (FRS3) (15) (7,400) 2,600 21,824

Minority interest 0 0 0 0

Adjustments for normalised earnings 0 0 0 0

Net income (norm) (30) (4,300) 8,000 32,424

Net income (FRS 3) (15) (7,400) 2,600 21,824

Average number of shares outstanding (m) 182 182 182 182

Share options and others outstanding (m) 188 188 188 188

EPS - normalised (p) (0) (2) 4 18

EPS - normalised and fully diluted (p) (0) (1) 2 9

EPS - FRS 3 (p) (0) (4) 1 12

Dividend (p) 0 0 0 0



Year-end 31 December

2005a 2006e 2007e 2008e

$000s $000s $000s $000s

Balance Sheet

Fixed assets 85 25,000 30,000 35,000

Intangible assets 85 5,000 5,000 5,000

Tangible assets 0 20,000 25,000 30,000

Investment in associates & JV's 0 0 0 0

Current assets 265 (10,100) (11,700) 16,600

Stocks 105 500 1,200 2,500

Debtors 80 5,000 7,500 8,000

Cash 80 (15,600) (20,400) 6,100

Other 0 0 0 0

Current liabilities 240 (12,500) (12,500) (12,500)

Creditors 240 (10,000) (10,000) (10,000)

Tax and social security 0 0 0 0

Short term borrowings 0 (2,500) (2,500) (2,500)

Long term liabilities 0 (35,000) (25,000) (15,000)

Long term borrowings 0 (35,000) (25,000) (15,000)

Other long term liabilities 0 0 0 0

Net assets 590 (32,600) (19,200) 24,100

Minority interest 145 0 0 0

Shareholders equity 735 (32,600) (19,200) 24,100

Year-end no of shares 133 182 182 182

Opening shareholders equity 95 735 (32,600) (19,200)

Net debt (80) 53,100 47,900 11,400

Net current assets 505 (22,600) (24,200) 4,100

Cash Flow

Operating Cash Flow (30) 1,800 26,300 71,400

Net Interest 300 (3,500) (3,100) (2,600)

Tax 0 0 0 (2,976)

Capex 0 (35,000) (25,000) (15,000)

Acquisitions/disposals 0 (25,000) 0 0

Equity financing 2,295 35,000 0 0

Dividends 0 0 0 0

Other 0 0 0 0

Net Cash Flow 2,565 (26,700) (1,800) 50,824

Opening net debt/(cash) 0 (80) 53,100 47,900

HP finance leases initiated 0 0 0 0

Other 0 0 0 0

Closing net debt/(cash) (2,565) 26,620 54,900 (2,924)


Use of fundsThe funds raised at the time of getting an AIM listing ofup to £25m will be used for the following purposes:

• To acquire Pechora Energy.

• To instigate an aggressive development programme.

• To evaluate and acquire other prospects in the region.

• Working capital purposes.

Dividend policyConcorde does not expect to pay a dividend in theforeseeable future. We expect that such a policy will bereviewed in 2008 when the Company will be in a positionto pay a dividend if the situation warrants it.

ManagementConcorde was founded by Peter Hughes and John Rigby,two highly experienced former Texaco executives. Themanagement of the company is detailed below.

Board of Directors & Senior AdvisorsLESLIE GOODMAN Non-Executive Chairman

Leslie has spent 30 years in the UK financial sector afterworking as a Solicitor at Slaughter & May in the 1970s. He was a Director in the Corporate Finance departmentof Hill Samuel in the 1980s, moving to BZW in 1987 tohead the International M&A department. In 1991 he wasappointed Chief Executive of Jardine Lloyds Advisers Ltd.,and in 1994 he was appointed Chief Executive of ACELtd. He is currently Chairman of Viatel Holdings Ltd., atelecoms carrier, and holds a number of other non-executive directorships.

PETER HUGHES Chief Executive Officer

Peter has spent over 25 years in the oil industry, mostrecently as Vice President of Contracts and Negotiationsfor Texaco Exploration Worldwide Growth, a subsidiary ofTexaco Inc.

JOHN RIGBY Chief Operating Officer

John has over 20 years experience in the oil industry,acquiring and managing assets for Texaco in various partsof the world, including the Middle East and the FSU. Johnholds a Doctorate in Geology from Cambridge University.

STEVEN JAFFE Acting Chief Financial Officer

Steven obtained an Accounting and Finance degree from the London School of Economics, and has worked at Hazlems Fenton, Chartered Accounts, since 1982where he is currently Senior Equity Partner.

GRIGORY ARKADIEVICH GABRIELYANTSNon-Executive Director

Grigory is a Professor of Geology who began his career at the exploration group Kurakum before going on tohold a number of positions in the Russian oil and gasindustry. He was Minister of Geology from 1989-1992

CHARLES HUSSEY Non-Executive Director

Former Capital Partner at McDermott Will & Emery. His remit focused on tax and corporate issues, withsubstantial experience in the FSU and more recently the Russian Federation.

Senior AdvisorsHAROLD ZIMMERMAN Senior Advisor

Harold has over 46 years of Fortune 500 corporate andentrepreneurial senior level management experience ininternational and domestic USA oil and gas operations.Harold started his career with Texaco in 1981, becomingVice President, Exploration & Production, for thecompany’s European Division which covered the formerSoviet Union between 1988-1992. In 1993 he establishedZimco Inc., a private company specialising in oil and gasproduction and processing.

Major ShareholdersThe major shareholders are given below:

Table VI: Concorde’s Major Shareholders (%)

Starvest Plc 37.4

Majedie 19.0

Peter Hughes 15.0

John Rigby 15.0


Industry OutlookThe main driver in the oil industry is the oil price, which iscurrently around $60/bbl for Brent crude. Oil prices haveremained at these relatively high levels for the last 15months, mainly because of strong demand driven byeconomic growth, and more recently by the decline in OPEC production. Nigerian production has fallen by 500,000 bpd because of the activities of insurgents. In addition, Iran and Venezuela can not meet their OPECquotas, Indonesia is in long term decline, and Iraqcontinues to be plagued by terrorist attacks. This hasresulted in OPEC crude oil output declining from around

31.6 m bpd during the fourth quarter last year to currentlevels of around 29 m bpd. There is, however, a view thatif world economic growth starts to slow down as a resultof a general increase in interest rates that oil prices couldweaken by between $5-10/bbl from current levels later inthe year. In spite of relatively high oil prices and recordearnings, the oil industry is going through a very difficultperiod because it needs to replace its reserves in order to remain in business. This means that companies such asConcorde, with proven reserves and a production profilewhich is likely to rocket upwards during the next 24months, will benefit considerably and should be favouredby the investment community.


Background to Russian oil and gas industryThe Russian oil and gas industry is pivotal in the country’seconomy accounting for 25 % of GDP and 40 % of totalexports. The country’s fiscal and economic health istherefore highly dependent on oil prices. It is estimatedthat a 10 % rise in international oil prices adds 2.2 % toGDP and increases tax revenues by 3 %.

Russia is an extremely important country to the energymarkets because it has the largest natural gas reserves inthe world, with 1694.4 trillion cubic feet (TCF) equivalentto almost 27 % of world gas reserves, and the eighthlargest crude oil reserves, with 72.3 billion barrels of crudeoil, equivalent to just over 6 % of world oil reserves. Russiais the world’s largest natural gas exporter and the secondlargest crude oil exporter in the world.

In 2004, the country produced 589.1billion cubic metres of natural gas, equivalent to almost 22 % of the world’sproduction that year. The country also produced 9.3 mbpd, equivalent to 12 % of the world’s production thatyear, behind Saudi Arabia, which pumped 10.6 m bpd.Crude oil production reached a peak of 11.5 m bpd in1988 but then declined steadily to 6.1 m bpd in 1996.Since then production has increased steadily to 9.3 m bpd in 2004, the latest figures contained in BP’s AnnualStatistical Review. It is estimated that production in 2005averaged 9.5 m bpd.

Most of the increase in Russian production during thepresent decade was from existing fields through the use of enhanced oil recovery techniques, includinghydrofracture and horizontal drilling, with approximately50 % of the rise attributable to Yukos (taken-over by

Rosneft in 2005), Sibneft and Surgutneftegaz. A cleartrend in Russia over recent decades has been thedeteriorating structure of the reserve base, with over 70 % of the reserves currently operating yielding low flowrates. Ten years ago wells producing just under 200 bpdaccounted for 55 % of the total reserves in development.Currently, 55 % of oil reserves are from oil wells thatproduce less than 80 bpd. The depletion of existing oil fields in Western Siberia and a lower reserve toproduction rate means that Russia’s oil boom may befollowed by a sharp decline if no new discoveries aremade in the future. It is estimated that around 80 fieldsaccount for over 60 % of the country’s remaining reserves.

The future of Russian oil production is linked directly tomaking large discoveries through exploration drilling thatcan then be developed. At current levels of production,current reserves will be halved during the next 10 yearsunless there is a significant increase in explorationexpenditure. In order to maintain current production, it is estimated that around $328 bn needs to be invested in the industry between 2006 and 2030. Most of thisinvestment will be made in developing new discoveries.So far investment in exploration has been very low,declining by 60 % between 1988 and 2001 and a further30 % between 2001-2003. Some of the new large fielddevelopments include Lukoil’s Caspian project atKurmangazy, the Sakhalin Island projects, the Shell joint venture at West Salymskoye project, Lukoil/ConocoPhillips’s Timan Pechora project, Rosneft/Gasprom’s Prirazlomnoye project, and Rosneft’sVankorsoye and Komsomolskoye projects.


Structure of the oil industryOver 100 companies produce oil in Russia, but despitetheir large number 90 % of production, equivalent to 7.2 m bpd, is produced by the ten largest verticallyintegrated companies. Three major private companiesand one State-owned company, viz, Lukoil, TNK-BP,Surgutneftegaz and Yukos, account for 66 % of productionand 57 % exports. The concentration of the industry is theresult of the huge merger movement in the 1990s.

Foreign investmentsForeign investment in the oil sector takes three forms:

1. Direct investment through a shareholding in Russian oil companies

2. The creation of a joint venture with a Russian oilcompany

3. The acquisition of an exploration and developmentlicence of a deposit through a Production SharingAgreement.

In 2000, foreign-owned companies such as BP,ChevronTexaco, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, NorskHydro, Royal Dutch/Shell, Statoil, and TotalFinaElfaccounted for 6-7% of Russia's oil production. The largest single investment was made by BP in 2003 when it paid $7bn to acquire 50 % of TNK from the Alfa-Access/Renova Group. TNK-BP is the third largest oil producer in Russia after Yukos (Rosneft) and Lukoil.

Hydrocarbon reservesThe vast majority of the country’s reserves are located in Western Siberia, between the Ural Mountains and the Central Siberian plateau. The Urals Federal District,particularly in the Tyumen region dominates Russian oilproduction, accounting for two-thirds of total oil output.The Volga Federal District, with Tatarstan as its oil centre, accounts for almost 25 % of production, though significant amounts of oil is also produced inBashkortostan, Orenburg, Perm, and Samara. The NorthWest Federal District, with the Komi Republic at itsregional oil centre, accounts for 4% of the RussianFederation’s oil output.

Oil exportsIt is estimated that 55% of Russian oil is exported by sea,40% through the Druzhba pipeline, some 5% by railway,and for the past few years a very small amount by riverbarge. The Russian oil industry will continue to suffer froman export capacity constraint. There are two export

pipeline companies, Transneft for crude oil andTransneftproduckt for oil products. By granting access tothese pipelines, the State is able to determine the exportcapacity for each company. Access to the pipeline isdetermined by production capacity of each company, but only a maximum of 33 % of its production can beexported. However, because of Russia’s lack of exportpipeline capacity, Transneft has set up a priority order for companies, so that the amount exported by eachcompany is more dependent on its capacity fornegotiating with the State than its own productioncapacity. Initially, Yukos and Lukoil were the greatestbeneficiaries because of the level of their reserves and the amount of people employed.

The Baltic Pipeline System (BPS), with a 1.2 m bpdcapacity, was inaugurated in December 2001 transportingcrude oil from the West Siberian city of Kharyaga in the Autonomous District of Arkhangellsk to a newlycompleted port of Primorsk in the Russian Gulf of Finland.The current capacity of Primorsk is 135 m bbls but this is expected to rise to 375 – 525 m bbls by the end of thedecade. The BPS gives Russia a direct access to northernEuropean markets, reducing Russia’s dependence ontransit routes through Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

There are four oil ports in the White Sea, viz, Varandey,Arkhangelsk, Vitino, and Murmansk. It is likely that otherRussian ports will be developed to export crude oil, inparticular at Kharyaga-Indiga and at Murmansk. It is likelythat a pipeline to Murmansk on the Barents Sea will bebuilt by Transneft, allowing a further 500,000 bpd of oilexports to reach the USA via tankers within nine days,much quicker than the six weeks it takes from the PersianGulf. Moreover, the construction of LNG facilities atMurmansk and Arkhangelsk has also been suggested,allowing natural gas exports to the USA.

The Timan Pechora regionThe Timan-Pechora oil province, where the Luzskoye field is located, spans the administrative regions of theRepublic of Komi and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug,and extends into the Pechora Sea reaching KolguyevIsland. There are currently 172 oilfields in the region withan estimated reserve base of 15 bn bbls, although Lukoilbelieves that this figure could double. The prolific Timan-Pechora basin has attracted interest from such westerncompanies as TexacoChevron and ConocoPhillipsamongst others. Lukoil is planning to invest $5bn over thenext decade in the region, with the aim of making the region the source of one-third of its total production.Rosneft plans to produce about 40% of its output in theregion.


An Old Oil Producing ProvinceThe presence of oil near Ukhta in the southwestern part ofthe Timan-Pechora Basin Province was known as early as1595, with thirty non-commercial shallow wells drilled inthe area between 1869 and 1917. As early as 1745 oil wasproduced and refined by very primitive methods. Sincethen over 3900 wells have been drilled in the region.Interest in developing the Komi Republic’s oil reservesincreased in the 1930’s after several oil discoveries weremade near the town of Ukhta.

Major Source RockThe primary source rocks of the basin are late Devonian,known by the Russian name of Domanik, but oil is alsofound in the Carboniferous and Early Permian layers. TheDomanik source rocks were deposited in 100-400 meterwater depths under reducing conditions with restrictedcirculation and low sedimentation rates during a eustatichighstand. The thickness of the deposits range from a fewmetres to 500 metres. The Timan-Pechora hydrocarbonsrange from high gravity, low sulphur and low resin oils,with paraffin bases to low gravity, high sulphur and highviscosity oils. Oil gravity varies from 11-62? API andcondensate gravity from 45-79 API. The oil produced atthe Luzskoye field is an excellent 40 API.

Regional governmentsThe Regional Governments play an important role in thedevelopment of the oil industry now that the Centralgovernment role has declined. Their main areas ofinfluence are taxation, employment protection and non-payment for products by insolvent industries. It is in theallocation of licences for exploration and development ofhydrocarbon deposits where the regional authorities havetheir greatest power. Under the Russian Constitution theFederal State grants ownership of the subsoil but thedevelopment of the onshore hydrocarbons reserves inshared equally between the Federal Government and theRegional Authorities where the reserves are located.

The futureThe Russian Ministry of Energy is forecasting that thecountry's crude oil exports will climb to almost 6.1 m bpdin 2010, but as we have seen exports of crude areincreasingly constrained by transport bottlenecks, makingRussian oil majors more restraint on exports of oilproducts in the future. Unlike crude, oil products can beeconomically transported to ports by rail, making theirtransport less of a problem. The problem with Russianexports of oil products is its generally low quality. Thecountry still lags behind in producing low sulphur motorfuels, which are compulsory in the EU, and mainly exportsfuel oil for which demand is declining.


S.W.O.T Analysis

➔ Good and experienced managementteam, with extensive experience inRussia and FSU

➔ Over 10 m bbls of proven reserves and33 m bbls of Proven, Probable andPossible reserves

➔ Independent export route

➔ Former Russian Minister of Geology is a non-executive director

➔ Strong links with US trained Russiandrilling and field managementcompanies.

Strengths

➔ Management unknown to the UKinvestment community

➔ Russia’s weak legal system andextensive bureaucracy

➔ High transportation costs from fieldbecause of the need to truck the oil

➔ High paraffin concentration limits saleopportunities

➔ Heavy reliance on Rus-Oil formanagement services.

Weaknesses

Opportunities

➔ High oil prices are expected to remainfor some time, leading to continuinginterest in the Oils sector

➔ Russia could become an attractivehedge if instability in the Middle Eastincreases

➔ Sale of rail loading terminal services tothird parties

➔ Sale of Transneft export quotas cangenerate additional revenues.

Threats

➔ High oil prices lead to a decline inworld economic growth and hence afall in oil consumption, thus loweringthe need to find large incrementalhydrocarbon reserves

➔ Large additional supplies ofhydrocarbon resources start flowingfrom OPEC countries that open uptheir industry to private capital

➔ Revocation of Luzskoye oilfield if theCompany fails to comply with licencerequirements

➔ Interference from Major Russian oil andgas companies

➔ Increase in Rus-Oil management fees.


Revenue Growth EBITDA Balance sheet strength

Growth metrics % Profitability metrics % Balance sheet metrics

EPS CAGR 05-06e n/a ROCE 07e 74.4 Gearing 07e -286 %

EPS CAGR 05-06e n/a Avg ROCE 05-08e 46.5 Interest cover 07e 6.0

EBITDA CAGR 05-06e n/a ROE 07e -47.7 Stock turn 06e n/a

EBITDA CAGR 05-06e n/a Gross margin 07e 34.7 Debtor days 06e n/a

Sales CAGR 05-06e n/a Operating margin 07e 34.7 Creditor days 06e n/a

Principal shareholders % Management team

Starvest Plc 37.4 Non Executive Chairman: Leslie Goodman

Majedie 19 Chief Executive Officer: Peter Hughes

Peter Hughes 15 Chief Operations Officer: John Rigby

John Rigby 15 Acting Chief Financial Officer: Steven Jaffe

Forthcoming announcements/catalysts Date Company details

AGM Reveley, Wheelers Lane, Smallfield, Surrey RH6 9PT

Trading update Phone +44 (0)1342 842 104

Interim results 31.08.06 Fax +44 (0)1342 842 104

Full results 19.12.06 www.concordeoilandgas.com

This research report has been prepared by VSA ResourcesLimited, for which it has been paid a fee, as corporatefinance advisors and arrangers to Concorde Oil & Gas plcand is solely for and directed at persons who haveprofessional experience in matters relating to investmentsand who are Investment Professionals, as specified inArticle 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001. This researchreport is exempt from the general restriction on thecommunication of invitations or inducements to enter intoinvestment activity and has therefore not been approvedby an authorised person, as would otherwise be requiredby Section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act2000 (the "Act"). Persons who do not fall within the abovecategory should return this research report to VSAResources Limited, 43 London Wall, London, EC2M 5TF,immediately. This research report is not intended to bedistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to anyother class of persons. It is being supplied to you solelyfor your information and may not be reproduced,forwarded to any other person or published, in whole orin part, for any purpose, without out prior written consent.

Neither the information nor any opinion expressedconstitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, tobuy or sell any securities or any options, futures or otherderivatives related to such securities.

The information and opinions contained in this researchreport have been compiled or arrived at by VSAResources Limited (the "Company") from sourcesbelieved to be reliable and in good faith but no

representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. Allopinions and estimates contained in the research reportconstitute the Company's judgements as of the date ofthe report and are subject to change without notice. Theinformation contained in the report is published for theassistance of those persons defined above but it is not tobe relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution forthe exercise of the judgement of any reader.

The Company accepts no liability whatsoever for anydirect or consequential loss arising from any use of theinformation contained herein. The company does notmake any representation to any reader of the researchreport as to the suitability of any investment made inconnection with this report and readers must satisfythemselves of the suitability in light of their ownunderstanding, appraisal of risk and reward, objectives,experience and financial and operational resources.

The value of any companies or securities referred to in this research report may rise as well as fall and sumsrecovered may be less than those originally invested. Any references to past performance of any companies or investments referred to in this research report are notindicative of their future performance.

The Company and/or its directors and/or employees mayhave long or short positions in the securities mentionedherein, or in options, futures and other derivativeinstruments based on these securities or commodities.

Not all of the products recommended or discussed in this research report may be regulated by the FinancialServices and Markets Act 2000 and the rules made for theprotection of investors by that Act will not apply to them.

If you are in any doubt about the investment to which thisreport relates, you should consult a person authorisedand regulated by the Financial Services Authority whospecialises in advising on securities of the kind described.

The Company does and seeks to do business with thecompanies covered in its research reports. Thus, investorsshould be aware that the Company may have a conflict ofinterest that may affect the objectivity of this report. Theanalyst who prepared this report has not and will notreceive any compensation for providing a specificrecommendation or view in this report.

Investors should consider this report as only a singlefactor in making their investment decision.

The information in this report is not intended to bepublished or made available to any person in the UnitedSates of America (USA) or Canada or any jurisdictionwhere to do so would result in contravention of anyapplicable laws or regulations. Accordingly, if it isprohibited to make such information available in yourjurisdiction or to you (by reason of your nationality,residence or otherwise) it is not directed at you.

VSA Resources Ltd. is Authorised and Regulated by theFinancial Services Authority

IMPORTANT NOTICE

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NOTES

For further information please contact

Concorde Oil & Gas plcReveleyWheelers LaneSmallfieldSurrey RH6 9PT

Tel +44 (0)1342 842 104Fax +44 (0)1342 842 104www.concordeoilandgas.com

[email protected]@concordeoilandgas.com

VSA Resources43 London WallLondon EC2M 5TF

Telephone +44 (0)20 7628 3989Fax: +44 (0)20 7920 [email protected]

© VSA Resources Ltd

VSA Resources Ltd. is Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Services Authorityand is a member of the London Stock Exchange

concorde research note march 2006

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