condensation trails in trajectory optimization - atm seminar · condensation trails in trajectory...

Condensation Trails in Trajectory Optimization

Condensation Trails in Trajectory OptimizationDr.-Ing. Judith RosenowATM Seminar 2019, Vienna, June, 19th

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Condensation Trails

vaccinepapers.orgaustrailanewsly.org


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Condensation TrailsScattering of solar radiation (cooling)

Absorption and re-emission of terrestrial radiation (heating)


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Condensation Trails

„Jet Trails , 2007“ by Chris Jordan

Global analysis

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Individual analysis!


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Trajectory Optimization TOMATOInput


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Trajectory Optimization TOMATOTarget


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Trajectory Optimization TOMATOModel


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Radiative Forcing of ContrailsWeather data

Eddy dissipation rate 𝜀𝜀 [m 2/s3] at 250 hPa on March, 6th, 2019

ln 𝜀𝜀1/3 = 𝑎𝑎 + 𝑏𝑏 ln𝑤𝑤𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣

𝑏𝑏 =𝜎𝜎 (ln 𝜀𝜀1/3)𝜎𝜎(ln𝑤𝑤𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣)

𝑎𝑎 = ln 𝜀𝜀1/3 − 𝑏𝑏 ln𝑤𝑤𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣

Turbulence* :

* Sharman et al. 2016

null

light

moderate


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Mixing layer 𝛿𝛿 [m]Wind shear [1/s]:

𝛿𝛿 =∆𝑢𝑢

�𝜕𝜕𝑢𝑢𝜕𝜕𝜕𝜕 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚,𝑦𝑦

=|𝑢𝑢1 − 𝑢𝑢𝑢|

�𝜕𝜕𝑢𝑢𝜕𝜕𝜕𝜕 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚,𝑦𝑦

𝑠𝑠 =𝑢𝑢 + 𝛿𝛿

𝑢 − 𝑢𝑢 −𝛿𝛿𝑢𝛿𝛿


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Ice supersaturated regions at 200 hPa on April 17th, 2018

𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑣𝑣 =𝑒𝑒𝑤𝑤𝑚𝑚𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣∗ (𝑇𝑇) ∗ 𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑤𝑤𝑚𝑚𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣

𝑒𝑒𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑣𝑣∗ (𝑇𝑇)


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Radiative Forcing of ContrailsAircraft

Wind speed [m/s] and wind direction at 200 hPa


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Radiative Forcing of ContrailsLife Cycle


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Radiative Forcing of ContrailsOptical Properties


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Radiative Forcing of ContrailsOptical Properties

Number ratios of incoming Iλ to outgoing Iλ (s1) photons at 550 nm depending on incident direction (zenith angle)

Increasing zenith angle of outgoing photons

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0° 180°90°

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180°

0°

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zenith angle

Cooling

HeatingNo effect

No effect

βe = f(s, rp, 𝜆𝜆,Q e) … volume extinction coefficient


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𝐼𝐼 𝜑𝜑 = 𝑎𝑎 sin(𝑏𝑏𝜑𝜑 + 𝑐𝑐)𝐼𝐼𝜑𝜑

[mW

/(m

2 nm

2 )]

Zenith angle 𝜑𝜑 [° ]

Radiative Forcing of ContrailsAmbient Atmosphere


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Radiative Forcing of ContrailsAmbient Atmosphere


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Radiative Forcing of Contrails

Extinguished power at 550 nmper meter contrailper time stepper wavelength


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Radiative Forcing of Contrails

P aP b

P b

𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑚𝑚𝑖𝑖𝐶𝐶 =𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑚𝑚𝑖𝑖𝐶𝐶,𝑚𝑚 ∗ 𝐷𝐷𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑚𝑚𝑖𝑖𝐶𝐶

𝐴𝐴𝐸𝐸𝑚𝑚𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝐸

𝐷𝐷𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑚𝑚𝑖𝑖𝐶𝐶…Contrail distance [m]𝐴𝐴𝐸𝐸𝑚𝑚𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝐸… Earth Surface [m 2]


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Contrails in Trajectory OptimizationActual Contrail Costs– CO2 eq. emissions

Transformation of RFContrail into costs: Global Warming Potential GWP

Aviation induced RFCO2 for 2005* :

Aviation emitted CO 2 in 2005* :

* Lee et al. 2009


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Contrails in Trajectory OptimizationContrail WeightingCosts

Cyril E King to Boston594 km Contrail distanceRFContrail=0.419 W/m

Contrail weighting: 0 € per CO 2 eq. emissionActual contrail costs: 201 €

Cyril E King to Boston512 km Contrail distanceRFContrail=0.419 W/m

Contrail weighting: 56 € per CO 2 eq. emissionActual contrail costs: 184 €

…Ice-supersaturation


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Contrails in Trajectory OptimizationResults

0 km Contrail distanceRFContrail=0.305 W/mContrail weighting: 32 € per CO 2 eq. emissionActual contrail costs: 0 €

Los Angeles to Boston1705 km Contrail distanceRFContrail=0.305 W/mContrail weighting: 0 € per CO 2 eq. emissionActual contrail costs: 1589 €

1374 km Contrail distanceRFContrail=0.305 W/mContrail weighting: 24 € per CO 2 eq. emissionActual contrail costs: 1360 €

…Ice-supersaturation


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Summary

Condensation trails are condensed water vapor, emitted by aircraft and contribute to global warming.

In 2005, 10% of all flights induced contrails andtherewith doubled the aviation induced global warming.

Six modules have been developed andparameterized covering all significant inputvariables to quantify the contrail radiative forcingin a multi-criteria trajectory optimization.

All input variables can be calculated from freelyavailable data sources.


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Conclusions

The contribution of individual condensation trailsto global warming can be calulated andconsidered in an iterative trajectory optimization.

Contrails can have a cooling effect on global warming.

Strong forward scattering weakens the solar (cooling) effect.

Time of the day mainly impacts the contrail effect in terms of• zenith angle of the sun• solar radiation intensity


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Thank you for your attention

Condensation Trails in Trajectory Optimization

Dr.-Ing. Judith Rosenow

Institute of Logistics and Aviation

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