conference china and the west 1950 - 2050 - uzh · conference china and the west 1950 - 2050: ......
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ConferenceChina and the West 1950 - 2050:Economic Growth, Demographic Transition and PensionsNovember 21, 2011
SpeakersMatthias Doepke (Northwestern U.) Moshe Hazan (Hebrew U.)Dirk Krueger (U. Pennsylvania) Jiehua Lu (Peking U.)Nancy Qian (U. Yale) Ebrahim Rahbari (Citigroup)Kjetil Storesletten (Fed. Reserve Bank) Michèle Tertilt (U. Mannheim)Hans-Joachim Voth (U. Pompeu Fabra) David Weil (Brown U.)
Organized by:Center for Institutions, Policy and Culture in the Development Process (Director Prof. Dr. Fabrizio Zilibotti) with the support of the European Research Council and NCCR-Finrisk
Time: 7:50 – 18:00Venue: KOL-G-217, Rämistrasse 71, University of ZurichRegistration (no fees): [email protected]
Further Information: www.econ.uzh.ch
Department of Economics
Department of Economics Centre for Institutions, Policy and Culture in the Development Process
Schedule
Time Speaker Topic of Speech
LONG‐RUN GROWTH AND DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS: GLOBAL TRENDS
07:50‐08:15 Coffee and Registration
08:15‐08:30 Fabrizio Zilibotti (U. of Zurich) Welcome Speech
08:30‐09:15 David Weil (Brown U.) The Effect of Interventions to Reduce Fertility on Economic Growth (with Quamrul Ashraf and Joshua Wilde)
09:15‐10:00 Ebrahim Rahbari (Citigroup) Global Growth Generators and the Role of Demography, (with Willem Buiter)
Chair Christoph Winter (U. of Zurich)
10:00‐10:15 Coffee Break
CHINA: DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS, SAVINGS AND PENSIONS
10:15‐11:00 Jiehua Lu (Peking U. and Center for
Healthy Aging and Development Studies)
Impact of Demographic Transition on Future Economic Growth: Chinaʹs Case Study
11:00‐11:45 Kjetil Storesletten (Fed. Reserve Bank Minneapolis)
Chinese Growth in the Face of a Demographic Transition (with Zheng Song, Yikai Wang and Fabrizio Zilibotti)
11:45‐12:30 Nancy Qian (U. of Yale) The Effect of Fertility on Savings: Micro Evidence from Chinaʹs Family Planning Policies
Chair Michelle Rendall (U. of Zurich)
12:30‐13:45 Lunch Break
FERTILITY, FEMALE EMPOWERMENT AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
13:45‐14:30 Hans‐Joachim Voth (U. Pompeu Fabra) How the West Invented Fertility Restrictions (with Nico Voigtländer)
14:30‐15:15 Matthias Doepke (Northwestern U.) Fertility, Inequality and Growth
15:15‐16:00 Michèle Tertilt (U. of Mannheim) Does Female Empowerment Promote Economic Development? (with Matthias Doepke)
Chair Filippo Brutti (U. of Zurich)
16:00‐16:30 Coffee Break
THE WEST: DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS, LABOR SUPPLY AND THE GREAT RECESSION
16:30‐17:15 Moshe Hazan (Hebrew U.) The Baby Boom and World War II: A Macroeconomic Analysis (with Matthias Doepke and Yishay Maoz)
17:15‐18:00 Dirk Krueger (U. of Pennsylvania) Intergenerational Redistribution in the Great Recession (with Andrew Glover, Jonathan Heathcote and José‐Victor Rios‐Rull)
Chair Fabrizio Zilibotti (U. of Zurich)
Room: KOL‐G‐217, University of Zurich, Rämistrasse 71, 8006 Zurich
Short Bios
Speaker Biography
David Weil
Professor of Economics, Brown University.
Ph.D. Harvard University, 1990.
Editor of the Journal of Development Economics and Co‐Director of the NBER project on the Causes
of African Development Successes.
Research Interests:
Growth, fertility, demography, habit formation, health, social security.
Selected Works:
“The Dynamics of the Age Structure, Dependency, and Consumption.” Journal of Population
Economics, forthcoming. (with Heinrich Hock).
“Post‐1500 Population Flows and the Long‐Run Determinants of Economic Growth and Inequality.”
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 125(4), 2010. (with Louis Putterman).
“When Does Improving Health Raise GDP?” NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2008. (with Quamrul
Ashraf and Ashley Lester).
Ebrahim Rahbari
Economist at Citigroup (Global Economics team led by Chief Economist Willem Buiter), London.
Ph.D. London Business School, London.
Research Interests:
Sovereign debt and banking, monetary policy, growth and trade.
Selected Works:
ʺGlobal Growth Generators: Moving Beyond Emerging Markets and BRIC.” Citi Economics, Global
Economics View, 2011. (with Willem Buiter)
ʺThe Debt of Nations.ʺ Citi Economics, Global Economics View, 2011. (with Willem Buiter, Juergen
Michels and Giada Giani)
ʺOptimal Reserve Composition in the Presence of Sudden Stops: The Euro and the Dollar as Safe
Haven Currencies.ʺ Journal of International Money and Finance, 30, 1107‐1127, 2011. (with Roland
Beck)
Speaker Biography
Jiehua Lu
Professor at Department of Sociology and Deputy Director of Center for Healthy Aging and
Development Studies, Peking University.
Ph.D. Peking University, 1997.
Research Interests:
Economics of population, gerontology, interaction between population and environment.
Selected Works:
“Study on Desired Living Arrangements for the Elderly in Urban Areas: Case of Beijing, Shanghai,
Tianjin, and Chongqing.” Population Journal, 1, 35 – 41, 2008. (with Lu Yuzhi and Bai Mingwen)
“Rapid Population Aging in Mainland China: Challenges and Solutions.” Gansu Social Sciences, 6, 12
– 16, 2007.
“Analysis on Aging Labor Force and Its Impact on Socio‐economic Development in China.”
Population Journal, 1, 7 – 12, 2006. (with Yang Daobing)
Kjetil Storesletten
Senior Economist at Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
Ph.D. Carnegie Mellon University, 1995.
Associate Editor of the Review of Economic Studies.
Research Interests:
Political economy, quantitative macroeconomics, financial economics.
Selected Works:
“The Macroeconomic Implications of Rising Wage Inequality in the United States.”
Journal of Political Economy, 118(4), 681‐722, 2010. (with Jonathan Heathcote and Giovanni Violante)
“Growing Like China.” The American Economic Review, 101(1), 196‐233, 2011. (with Zheng Song and
Fabrizio Zilibotti)
“The Survival of the Welfare State.” The American Economic Review, 93, 87‐112, 2003. (with John
Hassler, Jose Rodriguez Mora and Fabrizio Zilibotti)
Speaker Biography
Nancy Qian
Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Yale.
Ph.D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2005.
Associate Editor of the Journal of Development Economics.
Research Interests:
Development economics, labor economics, political economy.
Selected Works:
“The Potato’s Contribution to Population and Urbanization: Evidence from a Historical
Experiment.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 126, 593–650, 2011. (with Nathan Nunn)
“The Columbian Exchange: a Historical Change in Food, Disease and Ideas.” Journal of Economic
Perspectives, 24(2), 2010. (with Nathan Nunn)
“Missing Women and the Price of Tea in China: The Effect of Sex‐Specific Income on Sex
Imbalance.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 123(3), 2008.
Hans‐Joachim Voth
Professor of Economics, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
Ph.D. Oxford University, 1996.
Associate Editor of The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Editor of the European Review of
Economic History.
Research Interest:
Demographic factors, growth and financial development, asset market volatility, great depression
and German interwar economy.
Selected Works:
“Malthusian Dynamism and the Rise of Europe: Make War, not Love.” The American Economic
Review, 99(2), 248‐54, 2009. (with Nico Voigtländer)
ʺWhy England? Demographic factors, structural change and physical capital accumulation during
the Industrial Revolution.ʺ Journal of Economic Growth, 11(4), 319‐361, 2006. (with Nico Voigtländer)
ʺLiving Standards During the Industrial Revolution: An Economistʹs Guide.ʺ The American Economic
Review, 93(2), 221‐226, 2003.
Speaker Biography
Matthias Doepke
Associate Professor, Northwestern University.
Ph.D. University of Chicago, 2000.
Editor of Review of Economic Dynamics.
Research Interests:
Innovation, Productivity, Labor Economics, Public Policy and Competition Policy.
Selected Works:
“Do International Labor Standards Contribute to the Persistence of the Child‐Labor Problem?”
Journal of Economic Growth, 15(1), 1‐31, 2010. (with Fabrizio Zilibotti)
“Women’s Liberation: What’s in it for Men?” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 124(4), 1541‐1591,
2009. (with Michèle Tertilt)
“Inequality and Growth: Why Differential Fertility Matters.” The American Economic Review, 93(4),
1091‐1113, 2003. (with David de la Croix)
Michèle Tertilt
Professor of Economics at University of Mannheim.
Ph.D. University of Minnesota, 2003.
Associate Editor of the Journal of Development Economics, the Review of Economic Studies and the
Journal of the European Economic Association.
Research Interests:
Macroeconomics, demography and development.
Selected Works:
“Fertility Theories: Can They Explain the Negative Fertility‐Income Relationship?” in Shoven, J.
(ed.) “Demography and the Economy.” University of Chicago Press, forthcoming. (with Larry E. Jones
and Alice Schoonbroodt)
“Women’s Liberation: What’s in it for Men?” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 124(4), 1541‐1591,
2009. (with Matthias Doepke)
“Efficiency with Endogenous Population Growth.”Econometrica, July 2007, 75 (4), 1039‐1071. (with
Mikhail Golosov and Larry Jones)
Speaker Biography
Moshe Hazan
Assistant Professor, University of Pennsylvania.
Ph.D. Hebrew University, 2002.
Associate Editor of Macroeconomic Dynamics.
Research Interests:
Growth and demography.
Selected Works:
ʺLongevity and Lifetime Labor Supply: Evidence and Implications.ʺ Econometrica, 77, pp. 1829–1863,
2009.
ʺDoes Longevity Cause Growth? A Theoretical Critique.ʺ Journal of Economic Growth, 11, 363–376,
2006. (with Hosny Zoabi)
ʺWomenʹs Labor Force Participation and the Dynamics of Tradition.ʺ Economics Letters, 75(2), 193–
198, 2002. (with Yishay D. Maoz)
Dirk Krueger
Professor of Economics and Director of Graduate Studies, University of Pennsylvania.
Ph.D. University of Minnesota, 1999.
Editor of the American Economic Review.
Research Interests:
Macroeconomics and public finance with emphasis on heterogeneous households.
Selected Works:
“On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution
of Wealth and Welfare.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 54(1), 49‐87, 2007. (with Alexander Ludwig)
“Pareto Improving Social Security Reform when Financial Markets are Incomplete!?” American
Economic Review, 96(3), 737‐755, 2006. (with Felix Kubler)
ʺDoes Income Inequality Lead to Consumption Inequality? Evidence and Theory.ʺ Review of
Economic Studies, 73(1), 163‐193, 2006. (with Fabrizio Perri)
Department of EconomicsCenter for Institutions, Policy and Culture in the Development Process
The research center “Institutions, Policy and Culture in the Development Process” (IPCDP) promotes theoretical and empirical research on growth and economic development. It addresses first-order policy-relevant issues while meeting the highest standards of scientific research. A core area is emerging markets, in particular the economic growth of China.
The IPCDP center is financed by the European Research Council (Advanced Grant). Its Principal Investigator, Prof. Fabrizio Zilibotti, is the Chair of Macroeconomics and Political Economy at the Department of Economics of the University of Zurich. He is the co-winner of 2009 edition of the Yrjo Jahnsson Award of the European Economic Association. This is the most prestigious award in European economics, and was granted for the first time ever to a researcher at a Swiss University. He is the managing editor of the Journal of the European Economic Association, an Associate Editor of the Review of Economic Studies, Journal of Economic Growth, and China Economic Review, and the co-director of the NBER-SI program on Income Distribution and Macroeco-nomics. His research on growth, technical change, economic development and political economy is published in the most important academic journals in economics. His published research includes studies on China (“Growing Like China”, with Song and Storesletten, American Economic Review 2011) and India (“The Unequal Effects of Liberalization: Evidence from Delicensing the License Raj in India”, with Aghion, Burgess and Redding, American Economic Review 2008).