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Confidential: For Review Only Universal antenatal screening for carriage of group B Streptococcus (GBS): State of the evidence Journal: BMJ Manuscript ID BMJ.2018.045010 Article Type: Analysis BMJ Journal: BMJ Date Submitted by the Author: 10-May-2018 Complete List of Authors: Seedat, Farah; University of Warwick, Warwick Medical School Geppert, Julia; University of Warwick, Warwick Medical School Stinton, Chris; University of Warwick, Warwick Medical School Patterson, Jacoby; University of Warwick, Warwick Medical School Freeman, Karoline; University of Warwick, Warwick Medical School Johnson, Samantha; University of Warwick, Warwick Medical School Fraser, Hannah; University of Warwick, Warwick Medical School Brown, Colin; Public Health England Colindale, Bacteria Reference Department, National Infection Service Uthman, Olalekan; University of Warwick, Warwick Medical School Tan, Bee; University of Warwick, Warwick Medical School Robinson, Esther; Public Health England, Field Service, National Infection Service McCarthy, Noel; University of Warwick, Warwick Medical School Clarke, Aileen; University of Warwick, Warwick Medical School Marshall, John; UK National Screening Committee Visintin, Cristina; UK National Screening Committee Mackie, Anne; UK National Screening Committee Taylor-Phillips, Sian; University of Warwick, Warwick Medical School Keywords: Screening, Pregnancy, Policymaking, Evidence review, Infectious diseases, Fetal, maternal, and child health, Group B <i>Streptococcus</i>, <i>Streptococcus agalactiae</i> https://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/bmj BMJ

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Page 1: Confidential: For Review Only - BMJ · 2019-02-27 · Confidential: For Review Only 2 steady in Emilia-Romagna in Italy at around 0.28 per 1,000 live births from 2003 to 2008.37 The

Confidential: For Review Only

Universal antenatal screening for carriage of group B

Streptococcus (GBS): State of the evidence

Journal: BMJ

Manuscript ID BMJ.2018.045010

Article Type: Analysis

BMJ Journal: BMJ

Date Submitted by the Author: 10-May-2018

Complete List of Authors: Seedat, Farah; University of Warwick, Warwick Medical School Geppert, Julia; University of Warwick, Warwick Medical School Stinton, Chris; University of Warwick, Warwick Medical School Patterson, Jacoby; University of Warwick, Warwick Medical School Freeman, Karoline; University of Warwick, Warwick Medical School

Johnson, Samantha; University of Warwick, Warwick Medical School Fraser, Hannah; University of Warwick, Warwick Medical School Brown, Colin; Public Health England Colindale, Bacteria Reference Department, National Infection Service Uthman, Olalekan; University of Warwick, Warwick Medical School Tan, Bee; University of Warwick, Warwick Medical School Robinson, Esther; Public Health England, Field Service, National Infection Service McCarthy, Noel; University of Warwick, Warwick Medical School Clarke, Aileen; University of Warwick, Warwick Medical School Marshall, John; UK National Screening Committee Visintin, Cristina; UK National Screening Committee

Mackie, Anne; UK National Screening Committee Taylor-Phillips, Sian; University of Warwick, Warwick Medical School

Keywords: Screening, Pregnancy, Policymaking, Evidence review, Infectious diseases, Fetal, maternal, and child health, Group B <i>Streptococcus</i>, <i>Streptococcus agalactiae</i>

https://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/bmj

BMJ

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Confidential: For Review Only1

Universal antenatal screening for carriage of group B Streptococcus (GBS): State of the evidence

Responses to editor and reviewer comments from previous version of manuscript

Comment Response

Editorial team

1 Lacks international perspective. What happens in other countries,

particularly those that have elected for screening.

Each section of the analysis piece was informed by referenced papers from

international literature with any focus on the UK contextualised by these

papers. In response to this comment, we have added the following (bold

text) in the introduction about different countries adopting screening and

risk-based prevention (pages 2 and 3) to increase international focus:

“In the Netherlands, the incidence of EOGBS has increased under

risk-based prevention from 0.11 to 0.19 per 1,000 live births

(p<0.001).13 By contrast, under risk-based prevention the incidence of

EOGBS in New Zealand has decreased from 0.5 to 0.26 per 1,000 live

births, from 0.4 to 0.3 per 1,000 live births in Sweden, and from 0.6 to

0.2 per 1,000 live births in Denmark (from 1995 to 2002).14-16

“Screening was first recommended in the US in 1996, when either risk-

based prevention or universal screening were recommended.17 This was

followed by a revision in 2002 recommending universal screening.18 19 The

incidence of EOGBS decreased in the US from 1.7 per 1,000 live births

to 0.6 in the 1990s, to 0.3 in 2004 after the introduction of universal

screening,20 21

and was most recently estimated at 0.22 in 2016.22 The

largest decline occurred when either risk-based or screening

prevention were recommended,21 making it unclear how much of the

decrease was a result of screening itself. After the US guidelines were

published, universal GBS screening guidelines were developed in many

countries,1 23

including Australia,24 Canada,

25-27 Belgium,

28 29 France,

30

Germany,31 32 Italy,

33 34 Spain,

35 and Switzerland.

36 After the introduction

of universal screening, the incidence of EOGBS was reported as

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Confidential: For Review Only2

steady in Emilia-Romagna in Italy at around 0.28 per 1,000 live births

from 2003 to 2008.37 The rate decreased from 1.1 to 0.7 per 1,000 live

births in Spain,38 but more than doubled in Alberta in Canada from

0.15 per 1,000 live births in 2003 to 0.34 in 2013.39”

2 Insufficient context about what happens in practice (e.g. what options are

available to people, women requesting private tests, the values and

priorities that inform decision making).

These issues were not the focus of our work although they are clearly of

vital importance in the interpretation of our work. We have referred to

them as follows on page 12 and stated that further work should be

undertaken in this area:

“There is also a lack of evidence about what currently happens in

practice. Little is known about the impact of private GBS carriage

testing or the values and priorities informing women’s decision-

making. Further work should be undertaken to understand this.”

3 We felt it did not spell out the relative weight of benefits and harms

clearly enough or in sufficient detail.

A major point of our analysis was to highlight that, internationally,

screening has been implemented without sufficient consideration of the

harms that may be a consequence of the overdiagnosis from screening for

GBS. The relative weight of benefits and harms of screening is

tremendously important but there is very little discussion of these issues in

the literature. Our analysis here is based on a systematic review of the

available literature, which shows that the harms are not yet fully

understood. However, to clarify the relative weight of the benefits and

harms, we have restructured the section on GBS screening into sub-

sections on the benefits of screening and the harms of screening (see pages

7 to 11) where we have expanded on the IAP harms, providing more

details on the findings of the systematic review.

Please also see the answer to the first reviewer 1 comment in the next line

of the table, which says: ‘in the section on the benefits and harms of

screening on page 7, we have stated that “in the absence of RCTs, it is

difficult to quantify the potential impact of adding universal screening to

risk-based practice.” while on page 11 we conclude that “The current

evidence on the benefits and harms of universal GBS screening is based

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mainly on observational studies that are small, subject to bias, and/or

have applicability concerns. Therefore, the balance of benefits and harms

from GBS screening and IAP cannot be quantified, especially as the long-

term impact of EOGBS and of IAP is poorly understood.”

Reviewer 1

General comments

1 Prenatal screening for GBS is an important topic affecting maternity and

neonatal practice and a substantial minority of pregnant women. It is

relevant to the BMJ readership as an analysis piece. However, to appeal to

and be understood by a general audience, the arguments need to

simplified, with less detailed quoting of figures and more clarity about the

strength of evidence.

We thank the reviewer for his/her positive comments. We agree that the

argument needs to be simplified and to do this we have restructured the

paper as mentioned above, whereby the section on universal screening is

split into the evidence on the benefits followed by the evidence of the

harms (pages 7 to 11).

We also agree that the strength of evidence is an important piece of this

analysis and we have discussed the strength of evidence in every section of

paper and the conclusion. For example, in the section on IAP on page 7,

we have mentioned that “Due to the high risk of bias identified in the

three included small randomised controlled trials (RCTs) which were

conducted more than 20 years ago, the authors concluded that there is

no valid information to inform clinical practice.76 Although IAP may

be effective in reducing EOGBS infections, the poor evidence base

makes it uncertain how effective it is.” Similarly, in the section on the

benefits and harms of screening on page 7, we have stated that “in the

absence of RCTs, it is difficult to quantify the potential impact of

adding universal screening to risk-based practice” while on page 11 we

conclude that “The current evidence on the benefits and harms of

universal GBS screening is based mainly on observational studies that

are small, subject to bias, and/or have applicability concerns.

Therefore, the balance of benefits and harms from GBS screening and

IAP cannot be quantified, especially as the long-term impact of

EOGBS and of IAP is poorly understood.” Finally, in the conclusion on

page 12 we state that “The harm from widespread IAP to thousands of

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pregnant women and their babies is unknown while the evidence on

the benefit from a screening programme is uncertain due to lower

quality studies with serious limitations. The long-term morbidity of

EOGBS is also largely unknown as is the impact of screening upon it.”

We have removed quoting of figures where possible. We feel that the

remaining figures (along with their limitations/strength of evidence) are

important to gauge the flow of people in the population in a screening

programme. These figures show the numbers/proportions of people who

suffer morbidity and mortality from EOGBS, the number of pregnant

women that need to be treated, and the number of babies who would be

saved by screening. These figures could help readers to understand the

magnitude of the potential overdiagnosis more readily and so have been

retained.

2 The conclusion about introduction of prenatal screening for GBS

colonisation, pending a better test for mothers who transmit to their baby,

is appropriately cautious but the reasoning, that we do not fully understand

the natural history of GBS to be able to screen and treat, is weak. The

volume of high quality research into GBS since the early 1980s, including

trials and before vs after studies, far exceeds the research base for many

infections in early childhood.

Our point here is that because we do not understand the natural history of

why some mothers transmit GBS and have a baby with EOGBS, while

others do not, we cannot better identify and treat only those mothers who

would be at highest risk of GBS. This lack of natural history information

means that with the current test there would be a substantial potential for

overdiagnosis and overtreatment; the harms of which are unknown. If we

had this information, overdiagnosis and overtreatment could be reduced.

We have clarified our statement on page 12 as follows (bold text):

“Selective maternal culture is not an accurate predictor of EOGBS disease

in neonates, and a lack of understanding about why some colonised

mothers have a neonate with EOGBS limits the ability to identify an

approach that reduces the rate of overdiagnosis. At present, if a GBS

screening programme is implemented, it would offer all term

pregnant women the antenatal GBS culture test, but over 99% of

screen-positive mothers (and their babies) would be overdiagnosed

and unnecessarily receive IAP, as they would not have a neonate with

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EOGBS even without intervention. The harm from widespread IAP to

thousands of pregnant women and their babies is unknown while the

evidence on the benefit from a screening programme is uncertain due

to lower quality studies with serious limitations.”

Specific comments

3 The introduction helpfully cites the criteria for assessing a screening

programme. The 4 concepts (1 prevalence and seriousness; 2 accurate test;

3 effective treatment; and 4 effective programme) are useful and could be

followed through in the assessment of evidence and conclusions. I suggest

deleting the more detailed sections in para 1 p 3, which has different

numbering and is unnecessary.

Thank you for this helpful comment. We have gone through and reworded

headings to make the links to the criteria more explicit and have

restructured the section on GBS screening into sub-sections on the benefits

of screening and the harms of screening to ensure that the readers can see

it is followed through to the conclusions.

We have also deleted the more detailed sections from paragraph 1 on page

3 and re-written the paragraph as follows:

“Here, we summarise the best available evidence on universal GBS

screening from two comprehensive evidence reviews undertaken for

the UK National Screening Committee (NSC) and have also included

key papers published since the conclusions of those reviews.43 44

The

reviews address UK NSC screening criteria, examining 1) the natural

history (asymptomatic stage to illness) and epidemiology (severity,

incidence) of EOGBS; 2) the accuracy of the GBS culture screening

test (is it able to separate women at high risk of having a neonate with

EOGBS from those at low risk?); 3) the effectiveness of IAP

treatment; and 4) whether a universal GBS screening programme

delivers more benefit than harm (at a reasonable cost).”

4 There should be more discussion of the context of EOGBS, which

accounts for around half of early onset bacteraemia. Risk-based treatment

addresses infection due to GBS and to some extent, depending on

spectrum of effect, other organisms. GBS screening might reduce needed

treatment in GBS negative women with risk factors at term. This argument

strengthens the authors’ focus on screening or not for low risk women at

term.

We have added more context about EOGBS in the introduction section as

well as more information on the current approach of risk-based prevention

in the UK on page 2 as follows (bold text):

“Group B Streptococcus (Streptococcus agalactiae, GBS) is a Gram-

positive bacterium that colonises the gastrointestinal and genitourinary

tract in approximately 30% of healthy adults.1-3 It usually causes no harm.1

However, GBS is the commonest cause of neonatal sepsis and

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meningitis in many developed countries.4 In the UK, GBS causes

invasive disease in the first six days of life (early onset GBS or

EOGBS) in around 1 of every 2,000 live births.55 Neonates with

EOGBS can develop sepsis, pneumonia, and meningitis, and around

5% to 10% of these babies can die as a result.5-7

To prevent EOGBS, a risk-based strategy has been recommended in

the UK since 2003.8-11

Pregnant women presenting with GBS risk

factors are offered intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis (IAP), usually

intravenous penicillin, during labour.8-11

The incidence of EOGBS has

increased over this period in the UK by around 0.09 per 1,000 live

births,5 6 however, as the strategy has been imperfectly implemented,

6

12 it is difficult to identify its impact. In the Netherlands, the incidence

of EOGBS has increased under risk-based prevention from 0.11 to

0.19 per 1,000 live births (p<0.001).13 By contrast, under risk-based

prevention the incidence of EOGBS in New Zealand has decreased

from 0.5 to 0.26 per 1,000 live births, from 0.4 to 0.3 per 1,000 live

births in Sweden, and from 0.6 to 0.2 per 1,000 live births in Denmark

(from 1995 to 2002).14-16

A criticism of the risk-based strategy is that risk factors are absent in

30% to 60% of pregnancies that result in EOGBS who would be

excluded from prophylactic prevention, although of course we have no

way of telling in advance who these cases are.”

In the epidemiology section on page 4, we have also added the long-term

morbidity of EOGBS:

“The long-term outcomes in EOGBS survivors are not well

researched. Neurological impairment at hospital discharge or last

paediatric review has been reported in up to 15.8% of EOGBS

survivors.55-57

GBS meningitis survivors have a higher risk of long-

term neurodevelopmental disability.56 58 59

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After careful consideration we do not think that introducing GBS

screening would reduce needed treatment in GBS negative women with

risk factors as the introduction of GBS screening would be in addition to

risk-based prevention as opposed to replacing it. Indeed, the modelling

project conducted by the UK National Screening Committee found that a

strategy of screening and risk-based prevention would not reduce needed

treatment.

5 The figure is helpful but number dense: proportionate symbols (using data

visualisation techniques) could be helpful and could bring more clarity

about the proportion at term who might benefit from screening.

We thank you for your suggestion. We have changed the figure and added

data visualisation tools to improve it. We have focused only the outcomes

of most interest and re-calculated the proportion of women at term that

might benefit. We have added a few sentences in the natural history and

test accuracy section:

Natural history section, page 5: “Figure 1 summarises the natural

history and epidemiology of GBS for a hypothetical cohort of term

pregnant women in 2000 (no prevention guideline) and 2014 (risk-

based prevention guideline). It is clear that EOGBS is an important

health problem, yet there is a poor understanding about the natural

history of GBS from maternal GBS colonisation to the long-term

outcomes of EOGBS.”

Test accuracy section, page 6: “Based on the UK surveillance data

shown in Figure 1, we estimate that the positive predictive value

(PPV) of antenatal culture predicting EOGBS may be around 2/1,000

(0.2%). The 2000-01 UK surveillance study shows that there were

around 205 term neonates affected by EOGBS per year in the UK at a

time with no national prevention guideline.7 There were 679,029

babies born in the UK in 2000,64 of whom approximately 573,448

reached full term (37 weeks onwards) and were not born by elective

caesarean section.65 If around 22% of women were colonised with

GBS,47 that would equate to approximately 126,159 GBS carriers at 35

to 37 weeks gestation. Therefore, if there was 100% test uptake and no

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change in GBS colonisation status from screening until labour, the

PPV of a screening test performed at 35 to 37 weeks for detecting

EOGBS in the neonate would be 0.16% (205/126,159). Performing the

same calculations using 2014 surveillance figures gives a PPV value of

0.25% (350/138,933),6 64 66

which would deliver an unacceptably high

level of false positive results.”

6 The authors could draw more on a previous, detailed cost effective

modelling study, albeit 10 years ago, which paid close attention to the

timing of screening and processing of culture results. The change in the

estimated proportion of women treated (increasing from 11% to

27%; http://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/335/7621/655.full.pdf see table 4)

is proportionately similar to the figures quoted on p9 para 1, though the

authors do not report the over proportion treated. The authors could also

reference that the estimated NNT from this study is consistent with the

figure of more than 99% of women being over treated (see table 55 p76,

strategy

99 file:///S:/ICH/PPP_CENB_CEBCHAdmin/RUTH%20ADMIN%20FO

LDER/Ruth's%20reviews/3001483fullhta%20gbs.pdf)

Thank you for this suggestion. We have added in the study on page 9 as

follows (bold text):

“An examination of the potential harms is a standard part of the

assessment of any screening proposal. Based on the estimated PPVs of

culture testing indicated above (0.2%), approximately 138,933 term

pregnant women per year would be eligible for IAP. Approximately 99.8%

(138,655 pregnant women and babies) would be overdiagnosed and

overtreated as they would have never had a neonate with EOGBS even

without IAP. This makes assessing the harms of treatment particularly

important. A cost-effectiveness model published in the UK also

estimated that adding screening to risk-based prevention would result

in 99.8% overtreatment (increasing antibiotic use in the pregnant

population from 11% to 27%).77”

7 The call for RCTs with mortality due to EOGBS as an outcome (p6

section 4) is unrealistic. Such trials would have to involve several

countries. Bacteraemia or sepsis are sufficiently serious outcomes and

should remain the focus of feasible clinical studies.

We agree that the focus of an RCT should be on bacteraemia and sepsis as

they are more feasible. However, for screening programmes, EOGBS

mortality it is an outcome of major importance. We have edited the

sentence on page 7 as follows (bold text) to reflect the feasibility

problems:

“There have been no RCTs assessing the effects of antenatal screening on

the reduction of morbidity, clinical outcomes, and mortality from EOGBS.

RCTs on the effects of screening on the clinical outcomes and

mortality from EOGBS would be challenging due to immense sample

size requirements.”

8 A minor, but important point is that the Cochrane trial estimate of We have added the estimate from the NIHR study on page 7 as follows

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treatment effectiveness for neonatal colonisation (given a colonised

mother) is contentious and highly susceptible to variation in the statistical

methods for handling zero cell sizes. The aforementioned NIHR cost

effectiveness study used an alternative Bayesian method and produced a

more extreme treatment

effect file:///S:/ICH/PPP_CENB_CEBCHAdmin/RUTH%20ADMIN%20

FOLDER/Ruth's%20reviews/3001483fullhta%20gbs.pdf table 33.

(bold text):

“Although IAP may be effective in reducing EOGBS infections, the poor

evidence base makes it uncertain how effective it is. Echoing the

uncertainty, a meta-analysis in 2007 using different statistical methods

produced a more extreme treatment effect of IAP, estimating a risk

reduction in EOGBS of 97%.77”

9 Recommendation 1 in box p 11, for a RCT of risk based versus culture

screening, is contentious and not sufficiently justified. The argument

made in this review focusses on uncertainty about screening versus no

treatment for term pregnancies without risk factors. However,

recommendation 1, does not restrict the trial question to this group. Why

not? Culture-based screening instead of risk based screening for preterm

and high risk groups could be harmful by delaying treatment for GBS and

other early onset causes of infection.

Please see answers to questions 10 and 11.

10 The authors should refer to the earlier ‘value of information’ study based

on the NIHR HTA cost effectiveness modelling study, which addressed

the same question about a trial

(file:///S:/ICH/PPP_CENB_CEBCHAdmin/RUTH%20ADMIN%20FOL

DER/Ruth's%20reviews/3001483fullhta%20gbs.pdf ). The NIHR study

concluded that investment in research into prenatal vaccination for GBS

was worthwhile, and if effective, vaccination combined with risk based

screening would be expected to be more cost effective than culture based

screening (negating the need for a trial) and would limit the proportion of

women treated to around 11% (see also

BMJ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1995477/).

We thank the reviewer for this suggestion and have included this in the

debate on page 11:

“In 2007, a cost-effectiveness model concluded that investments in

prenatal vaccination research should be prioritised over screening

research.77 However, interest has remained to evaluate the impact of

universal GBS screening. In 2017, the Health Technology Assessment

launched an expression of interest for a cluster randomised trial

assessing whether screening women for carriage of GBS in late

pregnancy reduces the occurrence of early-onset sepsis, whether the

benefits outweigh the harms, and whether it would be cost-effective.”

11 The authors have omitted to refer to the fact that the NIHR HTA

programme is currently commissioning a RCT on culture-based screening

versus risk based screening (https://www.nihr.ac.uk/funding-and-

support/funding-opportunities/1786-the-clinical-and-cost-effectiveness-of-

At the time that this paper was initially submitted to the BMJ, the call for

the RCT was not yet advertised. As suggested, we have removed the

recommendation from Box 1 and added a paragraph to discuss the NIHR

call and stimulate the discussion on this:

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screening-for-group-b-streptococcus-gbs-in-pregnancy/6627). This call is

surprising, given that the HTA commissioning board rejected such a

proposal based on the previous cost effectiveness analysis in 2007. What

has changed in the epidemiology of the condition or evidence for test

accuracy or treatment effectiveness to justify the very substantial costs of

such a large trial? Furthermore, the HTA recommends a cluster RCT,

which would not allow the detailed analysis of ‘who’ (i.e. risk groups) is

susceptible to mother to child transmission and disease, as raised by the

authors in this piece. One change since the HTA last decided on this

matter is progress in developing a vaccine. However, this would argue

against a RCT at this time. This analysis piece is not sufficiently up to

date and explicit about the scientific evidence, and other influences, on the

recommendation for a RCT. I suggest they delete this recommendation

and discuss the evidence to support (or not) the NIHR HTA call for a

RCT.

“In 2007, a cost-effectiveness model concluded that investments in

prenatal vaccination research should be prioritised over screening

research.77 However, interest has remained to evaluate the impact of

universal GBS screening. In 2017, the Health Technology Assessment

launched an expression of interest for a cluster randomised trial

assessing whether screening women for carriage of GBS in late

pregnancy reduces the occurrence of early-onset sepsis, whether the

benefits outweigh the harms, and whether it would be cost-effective.”

12 The authors could be clearer about whether there is a statistically

significant increase in the rate of EOGBS, and whether this is mirrored in

other countries, with and without screening. Point prevalence comparisons

are less relevant than comparisons of trends as maternal GBS colonisation

and the incidence of EOGBS is expected to vary between populations.

Thank you for this helpful comment. Yes, this was a statistically

significant increase, which we have added in on page 4 (bold text):

“This was statistically different to the earlier enhanced surveillance

conducted in 2000-01 (before national prevention guidelines), which found

a rate of 0.48 per 1,000 live births.7”

Minor comments

13 P3 line 26 – ‘thought to be passed’ – I think there is enough evidence to

indicate that this is how infection is transmitted to the neonate. Possibly

add ‘colonise vagina or rectum’.

Changed to “is passed” on page 3.

14 References 14 and 15 are not obtainable. Links should be given. Links added.

Reviewer 2

Summary

This article is based on a review commissioned by the UK National screening

committee (NSC), that evaluates the proposal that the UK should introduce a

universal screening programme to detect GBS carriage in late pregnancy. The

We thank the reviewer for his/her positive comments. We agree, although

screening may be effective (how effective we do not know), the

programme would generate substantial overtreatment from IAP, which

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review concludes that universal GBS screening does not meet the UK NSC

criteria for introducing a screening programme.

This is probably a reasonable argument but it should be acknowledged that it is

a difficult area, as even based on the authors’ conservative estimates,

introduction of a universal GBS screening programme and IAP (to replace ‘risk

based’ IAP) might potentially prevent ~212 additional EOGBS sepsis episodes

and 5-6 neonatal deaths per year. Given the morbidity and mortality potentially

averted by a universal screening approach, I think the authors need to be very

clear that the argument they are making is that the programme is not cost-

effective and/or that universal screening programmes and IAP have potential

unquantified harms (due to lack of RCT evidence) e.g. antibiotic

resistance/changes in neonatal gut flora etc. If the major emphasis is on

unintended harms of a screening programme, then more attention should be

given to describing recent studies quantifying known harms (at present, many of

the possible ‘harms’ are not referenced) e.g. disruption of neonatal flora (Azad

et al BJOG 2016). Most recent studies have not shown an impact of IAP on

antimicrobial resistance.

may have potential unquantified harms.

To make this argument clear, we have stated the following in the stand-

first on page 1:

“In this paper, Seedat and colleagues review the evidence

underpinning this decision, addressing key issues yet to be considered

before introducing a screening programme, including the possibility of

harm from the high levels of unnecessary treatment with antibiotic

prophylaxis due to a poor test and the uncertainty of screening

effectiveness.”

In the conclusion on page 12, we have acknowledged that this is a difficult

area and that screening should not be offered as there is a huge amount of

overtreatment and that IAP has potential unquantified harms, as follows

(bold text):

“Universal antenatal GBS culture screening is a complex area and a

poor evidence base means that, so far, it does not meet UK NSC criteria

needed to introduce screening programmes. Selective maternal culture is

not an accurate predictor of EOGBS disease in neonates, and a lack of

understanding about why some colonised mothers have a neonate with

EOGBS limits the ability to identify an approach that reduces the rate

of overdiagnosis. At present, if a GBS screening programme is

implemented, it would offer all term pregnant women the antenatal

GBS culture test, but over 99% of screen-positive mothers (and their

babies) would be overdiagnosed and unnecessarily receive IAP, as

they would not have a neonate with EOGBS even without

intervention. The harm from widespread IAP to thousands of

pregnant women and their babies is unknown while the evidence on

the benefit from a screening programme is uncertain due to lower

quality studies with serious limitations.”

We have also expanded on the review of the harms from IAP describing

the studies on pages 9 to 11, including the consistent evidence on gut

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microbiota and the inconsistent evidence on antibiotic resistance.

Given that this journal is intended for a general audience, the article makes

several assumptions about prior knowledge of neonatal EOGBS disease

prevention approaches and does not really explain why there have been repeated

calls ‘in the media’ to change from a risk-based to a universal screening

approach. I think it would be fair to acknowledge in the introduction that many

countries (e.g. US after 2002 CDC guidelines, and many European countries)

have adopted a universal GBS screening programme and have seen significant

reductions in EOGBS rates. Most studies have also shown lower rates of

EOGBS disease in neonates with universal screening rather than a risk based

approach (see ref 46), acknowledging that no RCTs have been done.

As mentioned above, we have added the following information in the

introduction on pages 2 to 3:

“A criticism of the risk-based strategy is that risk factors are absent in

30% to 60% of pregnancies that result in EOGBS who would be

excluded from prophylactic prevention, although of course we have no

way of telling in advance who these cases are. There are regular media

and political calls to introduce a universal antenatal GBS screening

programme in addition to the current risk-based strategy. Universal

screening would involve the collection of specimens using rectovaginal

swabs at 35 to 37 weeks gestation, which are processed using selective

culture media, to identify women colonised with GBS so that IAP can be

offered to all women testing positive. Screening was first recommended in

the US in 1996, when either risk-based prevention or universal screening

were recommended.17 This was followed by a revision in 2002

recommending universal screening.18 19 The incidence of EOGBS

decreased in the US from 1.7 per 1,000 live births to 0.6 in the 1990s,

to 0.3 in 2004 after the introduction of universal screening,20 21

and

was most recently estimated at 0.22 in 2016.22 The largest decline

occurred when either risk-based or screening prevention were

recommended,21 making it unclear how much of the decrease was a

result of screening itself. After the US guidelines were published,

universal GBS screening guidelines were developed in many countries,1 23

including Australia,24 Canada,25-27 Belgium,28 29 France,30 Germany,31 32

Italy,33 34

Spain,35 and Switzerland.

36 After the introduction of universal

screening, the incidence of EOGBS was reported as steady in Emilia-

Romagna in Italy at around 0.28 per 1,000 live births from 2003 to

2008.37 The rate decreased from 1.1 to 0.7 per 1,000 live births in

Spain,38 but more than doubled in Alberta in Canada from 0.15 per

1,000 live births in 2003 to 0.34 in 2013.39”

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We have, however, made a decision to keep the discussion of the studies

comparing screening to risk-based prevention in the section on the

effectiveness of screening where they can be described in more detail

along with the strength of evidence, rather than include them in the

introduction.

Finally, we have replaced ref 46 with a more recent and better conducted

systematic review of studies between 2000 and 2013 (Kurz and Davis,

2015).

I think there are some small issues not sufficiently covered:

-more attention to the state of the evidence for alternative screening approaches

eg GBS detection in labour? (given that the authors feel that screening at 35-37

weeks is not accurate)

Although we have focussed on culture based testing, as this is the

recommended test in the UK while rapid testing is not currently

recommended (as referenced in the test accuracy section), we have now

added information about PCR testing in the test section on pages 6 to 7 as

follows (bold text) in order to provide some discussion about this:

“A better test is required; however, a poor understanding of the natural

history of GBS limits the ability to identify such an approach. Rapid in-

labour tests have been developed. The most promising is real-time

polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing. However, there are some

practical limitations that require further development before such

rapid tests can be recommended. These include cost, the length and

complexity of processing, inability to determine antibiotic sensitivity,

and/or they have lower sensitivity compared to culture.73-75

Furthermore, this approach to testing may not increase the PPV for

EOGBS compared to antenatal culture screening as only a small

proportion of colonised mothers in labour would have a neonate with

EOGBS.”

-Are there any established maternal harms/benefits from universal screening and

treatment? E.g. reduction in chorioamnionitis?

As far as we are aware, there is no information on the maternal benefits of

GBS screening. Most of the data on the maternal impact of IAP are for

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other purposes such as preterm labour and post-partum infection. We have

added the following information (bold text) on maternal harms into the

section on the harms of screening on pages 10 to 11:

“Maternal anaphylaxis is another important harm to consider as it

has potentially fatal consequences. However, as it is rare, it is difficult

to explore in well-designed studies other than very large RCTs. In the

US, four anaphylactic cases associated with GBS prophylaxis were

reported since the introduction of guidelines in 1996 up to 2010.19

Another study in Texas reported 19 cases of all-cause maternal

anaphylaxis (2.7 cases per 100,000 deliveries) in 2004-05.111 Eleven

cases were due to penicillin and cephalosporin and the authors

speculated that it was likely that these antibiotics were used for GBS

prevention. In the UK, the rate of all-cause maternal anaphylaxis has

been reported at 1.6 per 100,000 maternities (37 cases in three years,

11 due to penicillin) and one was a result of GBS prophylaxis. Two

mothers (5%) died and 14 (38%) mothers and 7 (41%) neonates

required intensive care admission.112 113 Other reported harms in small

observational studies at risk of bias, included neonatal respiratory

distress,114 maternal thrush,

115 and childhood atopic dermatitis.

116

- it should probably be acknowledged that ‘risk based’ strategies to identify

women for IAP are imperfectly applied, as demonstrated in the UK 2016 Audit

of current practice in preventing early-onset neonatal group B streptococcal

disease.

We agree that risk-based prevention may not have been perfectly applied

to assess its impact and we have added this in on page 2:

“The incidence of EOGBS has increased over this period in the UK by

around 0.09 per 1,000 live births,5 6 however, as the strategy has been

imperfectly implemented,6 12

it is difficult to identify its impact.”

Specific comments

1

Stand-first

I think this short summary could be re-phrased to provide more rationale as to

what questions are still to be decided in implementing a screening program e.g.

relatively few deaths averted versus unknown harms of universal screening and

We have changed the stand-first as follows (bold text) to provide questions

still to be decided in implementing a programme:

“Based on research evidence, the UK National Screening Committee

recommended that routine screening for group B Streptococcus carriage in

late pregnancy should not be introduced into the UK. In this paper, Seedat

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IAP. I am not sure about the claim that GBS is currently the most common

cause of neonatal infectious disease mortality, although it remains the most

common cause of neonatal sepsis (see below).

and colleagues review the evidence underpinning this decision,

addressing key issues yet to be considered before introducing a

screening programme, including the possibility of harm from the high

levels of unnecessary treatment with antibiotic prophylaxis due to a

poor test and the uncertainty of screening effectiveness.”

Introduction

1 P2, line 1 first sentence claim that GBS is most common infectious cause

of death. This should be referenced as recent studies have reported GBS is

most common cause of neonatal sepsis BUT E. coli may be the most

common cause of sepsis-related death (Simonsen et al, Clinical

Microbiology Reviews 2014). See also ‘Stand-first’ claim.

Thank you for pointing this out. We have changed the sentence on page 2

to:

“GBS is the commonest cause of neonatal sepsis and meningitis in

many developed countries.4”

2 P2, line 15 ‘pregnant women reporting with GBS risk factors’ might be

‘presenting with’?

Changed to “presenting”.

3 In the first paragraph it would be reasonable to mention that several other

high-resource countries have adopted the universal screening practice,

particularly after the US CDC guidelines were issued.

We have added the following sentence to the first paragraph on page 3 as

the introduction has been restructured according the comments above:

“After the US guidelines were published, universal GBS screening

guidelines were developed in many countries,1 23

including Australia,24

Canada,25-27

Belgium,28 29

France,30 Germany,

31 32 Italy,

33 34 Spain,

35 and

Switzerland.36”

4 It would be fair to quote reported rates of neonatal GBS sepsis in countries

that have adopted universal screening.

As mentioned above, we have added the following (bold text) on pages 2

to 3:

“Screening was first recommended in the US in 1996, when either risk-

based prevention or universal screening were recommended.17 This was

followed by a revision in 2002 recommending universal screening.18 19 The

incidence of EOGBS decreased in the US from 1.7 per 1,000 live births

to 0.6 in the 1990s, to 0.3 in 2004 after the introduction of universal

screening,20 21

and was most recently estimated at 0.22 in 2016.22 The

largest decline occurred when either risk-based or screening

prevention were recommended,21 making it unclear how much of the

decrease was a result of screening itself. After the US guidelines were

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published, universal GBS screening guidelines were developed in many

countries,1 23

including Australia,24 Canada,

25-27 Belgium,

28 29 France,

30

Germany,31 32 Italy,33 34 Spain,35 and Switzerland.36 After the introduction

of universal screening, the incidence of EOGBS was reported as

steady in Emilia-Romagna in Italy at around 0.28 per 1,000 live births

from 2003 to 2008.37 The rate decreased from 1.1 to 0.7 per 1,000 live

births in Spain,38 but more than doubled in Alberta in Canada from

0.15 per 1,000 live births in 2003 to 0.34 in 2013.39”

Epidemiology and natural history of a condition

1 Could the title be re-phrased to ‘Epidemiology and natural history of

GBS’?

Changed to “Natural history and epidemiology of EOGBS” on page 3

as natural history is presented first.

2 P3, line 57 reference for GBS as most common causes of neonatal death is

quite old (?2001 edition of Remington and Klein)- see above, could these

figures be updated? For example, the authors quote recent figures showing

a decline in GBS related mortality in the UK in recent years in the

subsequent paragraph.

Thank you for pointing this out. Changed to “EOGBS causes

considerable morbidity and mortality” on page 4.

3 P4, para 1: several figures from the UK enhanced surveillance programme

are quoted but the implications of the numbers are not really spelt out.

This would be helpful for the general reader. Are rates of EOGBS

incidence higher or lower than other countries with universal GBS

screening? If these are not comparable, then why not?

As mention in question 1 from the Editorial Team and question 4 from

Reviewer 2 three rows above, we have added the incidence of EOGBS in

other countries in the introduction: ‘The incidence of EOGBS decreased in

the US from 1.7 per 1,000 live births to 0.6 in the 1990s, to 0.3 in 2004

after the introduction of universal screening,20 21 and was most recently

estimated at 0.22 in 2016.22 The largest decline occurred when either risk-

based or screening prevention were recommended,21 making it unclear

how much of the decrease was a result of screening itself. After the

introduction of universal screening, the incidence of EOGBS was reported

as steady in Emilia-Romagna in Italy at around 0.28 per 1,000 live births

from 2003 to 2008.37 The rate decreased from 1.1 to 0.7 per 1,000 live

births in Spain,38 but more than doubled in Alberta in Canada from 0.15

per 1,000 live births in 2003 to 0.34 in 2013.39’

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We have also added the following sentence in this paragraph on page 4:

“The incidence of EOGBS in developed countries was recently

estimated at 0.37 per 1,000 live births.53”

4 p4, line 24-25: ‘Rates of GBS in term women’ should read ‘rate of

EOGBS in infants born to women at term’. This should be changes

throughout the paragraph to be accurate.

Changed accordingly on page 5.

5 P4, para 2: It should be clarified that women in pre-term labour would

usually receive antibiotics whether a risk-based approach or universal

screening based approach is used.

At the time that we submitted this review, this was not the case.

The RCOG only recommended GBS IAP for preterm births in Sept 2017.

We have added the following on page 5:

“Given this burden in preterm neonates, guidelines in the UK were

updated in September 2017 to recommend offering IAP to all women

in preterm labour.11

Most countries with risk-based or universal

screening prevention also offer IAP for preterm labour.”

Clinical effectiveness of IAP treatment

1 ?leave off the word ‘treatment’ in title, as IAP is by definition

‘prophylaxis’

Removed on page 7.

2 P6, line 47 ‘of whom approximately 99.8%’ (do you mean infants, rather

than pregnant women?).

It would be both pregnant women and their babies as pregnant women

would be treated but it is to prevent disease in the infant, therefore the

infant would also be affected. Changed as follows (bold text) on page 9:

“Approximately 99.8% (138,655 pregnant women and babies) would be

overdiagnosed and overtreated as they would have never had a neonate

with EOGBS even without IAP.”

3 P6 final para: I think the potential harms should be spelt out separately for

mothers and infants.

We have expanded this section and stated the harms to infants followed by

mothers. We have focused on the key findings of the report instead of

stating all of the investigated harms in infants and mothers as the evidence

on many of the harms was inconclusive (see pages 9 to 11).

4 P7, para 1: no references for studies that found an increase in AMR,

childhood atopic disease etc? It is difficult to refute the claims in the text

as the studies are not referenced.

We have now included the references for the studies in this section (pages

9 to 11).

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5 P7, line 22: should this read: ‘the UK Department of health’s

antimicrobial resistance strategy’?

Agree, rephrased on page 11.

Clinical effectiveness of GBS screening

1 The recent UK study observational study published in BMJ (reference 23)

did report a reduction in EOGBS disease with a screening programme

when only women who were actually screened were included in the

analysis; perhaps this should be acknowledged.

We have added this as suggested and stated the limitations of such an

analysis. We have also included the follow up study from this centre. On

page 8, we state the following:

“Additional analysis of mothers who were actually screened compared

to the pre-screening period was reported as statistically significant

(0.16 versus 0.99 per 1,000 live births, RR 0.16, p<0.05). However, the

mothers who accepted screening may have been systematically

different. The authors acknowledged that there were statistically

significant differences in several maternal characteristics between the

screening and risk-based periods. In addition, there was a low rate of

IAP in the carrier population and the authors suggested that factors

beyond the screening programme may have influenced the reduction

in EOGBS. The authors published a second study after the cessation

of their GBS programme finding that EOGBS incidence had increased

from 0.33 to 1.79 per 1,000 live births, which was statistically different

when adjusting for ethnicity (RR 5.67, p=0.009).82 Again, this study

may be biased due to the inclusion of differing populations across

differing time periods.”

Conclusion and future research

1 It is probably a bit dogmatic to sat that selective culture at 35-37 weeks is

not an accurate predictor of colonisation status in labour, although it is fair

to say that it may not be an accurate indicator of EOGBS disease in

neonates. Figures that the authors quote for PPV are 60-80% for

colonisation at time of labour.

We have changed the sentence as follows on page 12:

“Selective maternal culture is not an accurate predictor of EOGBS

disease in neonates, and a lack of understanding about why some

colonised mothers have a neonate with EOGBS limits the ability to

identify an approach that reduces the rate of overdiagnosis.”

Box 1

I think the authors should consider revising the order of their recommendations,

and making them more succinct. In particular, the authors clearly feel that an

As per the recommendations of reviewer 1, we have removed the

recommendation of an RCT and moved it into the main text on page 11.

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RCT of risk-based versus universal screening approach will still not yield a test

with a high positive predictive value and therefore an RCT might not alter their

assessment that a screening based approach is not indicated. Maybe they should

emphasise other approaches that should be addressed in research e.g. rapid GBS

detection in labour, predictive tests for neonatal EOGBS etc

We have also moved the other research recommendations into the text on

pages 11 to 12 (as follows) and removed the extra details in each

recommendation to make them succinct. These recommendations do

address research to find a better approach to identify high risk women,

including development of rapid tests and predicting neonatal EOGBS:

“In addition to trial evidence, research to understand the natural

history of GBS could help to improve the balance of benefits and

harms for future proposed screening programmes. Better

identification of the women at most risk of having a neonate with

EOGBS could reduce the amount of overtreatment to thousands of

women and their babies. To this end, research is needed to better

predict which mothers with GBS carriage will transmit GBS to the

neonate, which mothers will have a neonate that develops EOGBS,

and which neonates with GBS colonisation will progress to EOGBS

disease. Similarly, test accuracy research is needed to reliably detect

GBS colonisation and bacterial load during labour, including

development of the latest in-labour tests and accurate measurement of

who is colonised in labour and how heavily. Finally, research is

required on the long-term follow up of neonates who are diagnosed

with EOGBS to understand the clinical morbidity experienced.”

If this response does not meet the reviewer’s suggestion, please expand

and we will be happy to adjust.

Key messages

I don’t think it is fair to say the screening rectovaginal culture is not an accurate

predictor of colonisation status in labour, although it may not be an accurate

indicator of EOGBS disease in neonates. Figures the authors quote for PPV are

60-80% for colonisation at time of labour.

We have changed the sentence as follows (bold text) on page 13:

“The natural history, particularly, the development from maternal GBS

carriage to EOGBS disease is poorly understood and maternal carriage

is a poor predictor of EOGBS.”

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1

Universal antenatal screening for carriage of group B Streptococcus (GBS): State of the

evidence

Farah Seedat PhD,1

Julia Geppert PhD,1 Chris Stinton PhD,

1 Jacoby Patterson MD,

1 Karoline

Freeman MSc,1

Samantha Ann Johnson MA,1

Hannah Fraser BSc,1 Colin Stewart Brown

FRCPath,2

Olalekan A Uthman PhD,1

Bee Tan FRCS,1

Esther R Robinson BMBCh DPhil,3 Noel

Denis McCarthy MB Dphil,1

Aileen Clarke MD,1 John Marshall MA,

4 Cristina Visintin PhD,

4

Anne Mackie FFPH,4 Sian Taylor-Phillips PhD

1

1. Division of Health Sciences, University of Warwick Medical School, Gibbet Hill

Campus, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.

2. Bacteria Reference Department, National Infection Service, Public Health England,

61 Colindale Ave, London, NW9 5EQ, England.

3. Field Service, National Infection Service, Public Health England, Seaton House

Nottingham, NG2 4LA.

4. UK National Screening Committee, Floor 5, Wellington House, 133-155 Waterloo

Road, London, SE1 8UG.

Corresponding author: Dr Sian Taylor-Phillips, Division of Health Sciences, University of

Warwick Medical School, Gibbet Hill Campus, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK, E) S.Taylor-

[email protected] , T) +44(0) 2476 575882

Stand-first:

Based on research evidence, the UK National Screening Committee recommended that

routine screening for group B Streptococcus carriage in late pregnancy should not be

introduced into the UK. In this paper, Seedat and colleagues review the evidence

underpinning this decision, addressing key issues yet to be considered before introducing a

screening programme, including the possibility of harm from the high levels of unnecessary

treatment with antibiotic prophylaxis due to a poor test and the uncertainty of screening

effectiveness.

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2

Introduction

Group B Streptococcus (Streptococcus agalactiae, GBS) is a Gram-positive bacterium that

colonises the gastrointestinal and genitourinary tract in approximately 30% of healthy

adults.1-3

It usually causes no harm.1 However, GBS is the commonest cause of neonatal

sepsis and meningitis in many developed countries.4 In the UK, GBS causes invasive disease

in the first six days of life (early onset GBS or EOGBS) in around 1 of every 2,000 live births.55

Neonates with EOGBS can develop sepsis, pneumonia, and meningitis, and around 5% to

10% of these babies can die as a result.5-7

To prevent EOGBS, a risk-based strategy has been recommended in the UK since 2003.8-11

Pregnant women presenting with GBS risk factors are offered intrapartum antibiotic

prophylaxis (IAP), usually intravenous penicillin, during labour.8-11

The incidence of EOGBS

has increased over this period in the UK by around 0.09 per 1,000 live births,5 6

however, as

the strategy has been imperfectly implemented,6 12

it is difficult to identify its impact. In the

Netherlands, the incidence of EOGBS has increased under risk-based prevention from 0.11

to 0.19 per 1,000 live births (p<0.001).13

By contrast, under risk-based prevention the

incidence of EOGBS in New Zealand has decreased from 0.5 to 0.26 per 1,000 live births,

from 0.4 to 0.3 per 1,000 live births in Sweden, and from 0.6 to 0.2 per 1,000 live births in

Denmark (from 1995 to 2002).14-16

A criticism of the risk-based strategy is that risk factors are absent in 30% to 60% of

pregnancies that result in EOGBS who would be excluded from prophylactic prevention,

although of course we have no way of telling in advance who these cases are. There are

regular media and political calls to introduce a universal antenatal GBS screening

programme in addition to the current risk-based strategy. Universal screening would involve

the collection of specimens using rectovaginal swabs at 35 to 37 weeks gestation, which are

processed using selective culture media, to identify women colonised with GBS so that IAP

can be offered to all women testing positive. Screening was first recommended in the US in

1996, when either risk-based prevention or universal screening were recommended.17

This

was followed by a revision in 2002 recommending universal screening.18 19

The incidence of

EOGBS decreased in the US from 1.7 per 1,000 live births to 0.6 in the 1990s, to 0.3 in 2004

after the introduction of universal screening,20 21

and was most recently estimated at 0.22 in

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2016.22

The largest decline occurred when either risk-based or screening prevention were

recommended,21

making it unclear how much of the decrease was a result of screening

itself. After the US guidelines were published, universal GBS screening guidelines were

developed in many countries,1 23

including Australia,24

Canada,25-27

Belgium,28 29

France,30

Germany,31 32

Italy,33 34

Spain,35

and Switzerland.36

After the introduction of universal

screening, the incidence of EOGBS was reported as steady in Emilia-Romagna in Italy at

around 0.28 per 1,000 live births from 2003 to 2008.37

The rate decreased from 1.1 to 0.7

per 1,000 live births in Spain,38

but more than doubled in Alberta in Canada from 0.15 per

1,000 live births in 2003 to 0.34 in 2013.39

Most screening recommendations have been made by clinical organisations.24 31 32 34-36 40 41

Crucially, however, screening recommendations should be assessed against screening

criteria,42

which require that the harms as well as benefits of a programme, are examined.

Here, we summarise the best available evidence on universal GBS screening from two

comprehensive evidence reviews undertaken for the UK National Screening Committee

(NSC) and have also included key papers published since the conclusions of those reviews.43

44 The reviews address UK NSC screening criteria, examining 1) the natural history

(asymptomatic stage to illness) and epidemiology (severity, incidence) of EOGBS; 2) the

accuracy of the GBS culture screening test (is it able to separate women at high risk of

having a neonate with EOGBS from those at low risk?); 3) the effectiveness of IAP

treatment; and 4) whether a universal GBS screening programme delivers more benefit than

harm (at a reasonable cost).

1) Natural history and epidemiology of EOGBS

GBS is passed from mother to neonate if the bacteria colonise the vagina around the time of

labour. The GBS carriage rate in pregnant women varies, and a recent meta-analysis

estimated that in developed countries GBS is found in around 19% of tested women.45

In

the UK, it is estimated to be around 21% to 22%,46 47

although a small recent study in a

London centre reported rates as high as 29%.48

Crucially, not all neonates born to GBS-

colonised mothers will be colonised, and not all colonised neonates will go on to develop

EOGBS. Of the women testing GBS-positive during pregnancy, a systematic review

estimated that around 31% are estimated to test culture negative in labour.49

In women

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testing positive during labour, there is a 36% (95% confidence interval [CI] 28.1% to 45.0%)

chance that they will transmit GBS to their neonates.50

The majority of neonates colonised

with GBS will remain asymptomatic; however, about 3% (95% CI 1.6% to 4.7%) will develop

EOGBS disease.50

Internationally, the risk of EOGBS in GBS colonised mothers (in settings

without an IAP policy) was recently estimated at around 1%.51

This means that in the

proposed screening programme a large number of women who carry GBS would be eligible

for antibiotics during labour when there is no risk of EOGBS to their neonates. The

mechanisms by which this common commensal infects and subsequently harms a small

proportion of neonates remain unclear.52

The incidence of EOGBS in developed countries was recently estimated at 0.37 per 1,000

live births.53

In the UK and the Republic of Ireland, enhanced national surveillance during

2014-15 recorded an EOGBS incidence rate of 0.57 per 1,000 live births (518 cases).5 6

This

was statistically different to the earlier enhanced surveillance conducted in 2000-01 (before

national prevention guidelines), which found a rate of 0.48 per 1,000 live births.7 While this

is the best available data in the UK, the studies have only been conducted at two points in

time (14 years apart) making it unclear how figures might fluctuate annually. The authors

also mention that the observed increase might be at least in part due to technical

improvements in bacterial culture practices, increased awareness of neonatal GBS, or

increased case ascertainment. Finally, only culture-proven EOGBS cases were included, and

although this is the standard outcome reported in GBS studies internationally, it is likely to

underestimate the true burden of the disease due to IAP given to women with risk factors.

EOGBS causes considerable morbidity and mortality. Neonates rapidly develop sepsis in 63%

of EOGBS cases, pneumonia in around 24%, and meningitis in around 13%.6 Around 5% of

EOGBS cases died in the UK in 2014-15; this was statistically different from 10.6% reported

in 2000-01.6 Of all early neonatal deaths (within seven days) in the UK, it was estimated that

1.7% were related to GBS in 2014.54

The long-term outcomes in EOGBS survivors are not

well researched. Neurological impairment at hospital discharge or last paediatric review has

been reported in up to 15.8% of EOGBS survivors.55-57

GBS meningitis survivors have a

higher risk of long-term neurodevelopmental disability.56 58 59

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Preterm birth is an important risk factor for EOGBS, and both incidence and case fatality

have been inversely associated with gestational age at birth.6 The rate and outcomes of

EOGBS in infants born to women at term is the important issue for screening because the

proposed screening test is at 35 to 37 weeks gestation and would only identify neonates

born after this time. However, the rate of EOGBS is rarely reported in this way. In the UK,

the rate of EOGBS in infants born to women at term has not changed much since earlier

estimates of 0.38 per 1,000 live births in 2007.60

Indeed, comparing the incidence rate of

EOGBS in infants born to women at term only (instead of all women) between the UK and

countries that have universal screening guidelines reduces the gap in incidence (US: 0.22 per

1,000 live births,61

Italy: 0.24 per 1,00037

). Given this burden in preterm neonates,

guidelines in the UK were updated in September 2017 to recommend offering IAP to all

women in preterm labour.11

Most countries with risk-based or universal screening

prevention also offer IAP for preterm labour.

Aside from preterm labour, a number of maternal factors have been associated with EOGBS,

including incidental GBS colonisation, a previous infant with GBS disease, GBS bacteriuria,

intrapartum fever, and suspected chorioamnionitis.11 62

If a woman presents with these risk

factors in labour, the UK guidelines recommend that IAP is offered.8-11

However, in 2014-15,

the percentage of EOGBS neonates born at term without these maternal risk factors

(therefore not eligible for IAP) was around 65%.6 The percentage of term EOGBS deaths

without maternal risk factors was around 56% to 67% (n=5-6/9) depending on the risk

factors included in the analysis.6 It is this group of term neonates with no preceding risk

factors which a screening programme could impact.

Figure 1 summarises the natural history and epidemiology of GBS for a hypothetical cohort

of term pregnant women in 2000 (no prevention guideline) and 2014 (risk-based prevention

guideline). It is clear that EOGBS is an important health problem, yet there is a poor

understanding about the natural history of GBS from maternal GBS colonisation to the long-

term outcomes of EOGBS.

2) Accuracy of selective rectovaginal culture at 35 to 37 weeks

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The suggested screening test for detecting GBS in the UK is selective enriched culture of

rectovaginal swabs taken at 35 to 37 weeks gestation.63

Studies tend to use detection of

GBS carriage at birth as the measure of test accuracy for culture of swabs at 35 to 37 weeks.

However, the outcome of interest should be EOGBS disease in the neonates. Based on the

UK surveillance data shown in Figure 1, we estimate that the positive predictive value (PPV)

of antenatal culture predicting EOGBS may be around 2/1,000 (0.2%). The 2000-01 UK

surveillance study shows that there were around 205 term neonates affected by EOGBS per

year in the UK at a time with no national prevention guideline.7 There were 679,029 babies

born in the UK in 2000,64

of whom approximately 573,448 reached full term (37 weeks

onwards) and were not born by elective caesarean section.65

If around 22% of women were

colonised with GBS,47

that would equate to approximately 126,159 GBS carriers at 35 to 37

weeks gestation. Therefore, if there was 100% test uptake and no change in GBS

colonisation status from screening until labour, the PPV of a screening test performed at 35

to 37 weeks for detecting EOGBS in the neonate would be 0.16% (205/126,159). Performing

the same calculations using 2014 surveillance figures gives a PPV value of 0.25%

(350/138,933),6 64 66

which would deliver an unacceptably high level of false positive results.

Two prospective studies67 68

included in a systematic review found that the PPV of selective

rectovaginal culture at 35 to 37 weeks gestation to predict GBS carriage at birth was 67.4%

and 78.6%.49 67 68

The reported negative predictive values were 96.7% and 93.5%.67 68

Small

recent studies identified in the 2016 UK NSC review showed similar values.69-72

Overall,

approximately 20% to 30% of pregnant women who test positive for GBS at 35 to 37 weeks

gestation, test negative in labour. It is unclear whether the reported changes in colonisation

status are a result of false test results at the point of screening or if they reflect natural

fluctuations in GBS colonisation during late pregnancy.

A better test is required; however, a poor understanding of the natural history of GBS limits

the ability to identify such an approach. Rapid in-labour tests have been developed. The

most promising is real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing. However, there are

some practical limitations that require further development before such rapid tests can be

recommended. These include cost, the length and complexity of processing, inability to

determine antibiotic sensitivity, and/or they have lower sensitivity compared to culture.73-75

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Furthermore, this approach to testing may not increase the PPV for EOGBS compared to

antenatal culture screening as only a small proportion of colonised mothers in labour would

have a neonate with EOGBS.

3) Effectiveness of intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis

Intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis is currently the recommended mainstay of EOGBS

prevention. A Cochrane meta-analysis published in 2014 estimated that the use of IAP

reduced the risk of culture-proven and probable EOGBS compared with no treatment by

83%.76

However, IAP did not reduce the incidence of all-cause mortality, mortality from GBS,

or mortality from other infections. Due to the high risk of bias identified in the three

included small randomised controlled trials (RCTs) which were conducted more than 20

years ago, the authors concluded that there is no valid information to inform clinical

practice.76

Although IAP may be effective in reducing EOGBS infections, the poor evidence

base makes it uncertain how effective it is. Echoing the uncertainty, a meta-analysis in 2007

using different statistical methods produced a more extreme treatment effect of IAP,

estimating a risk reduction in EOGBS of 97%.77

4) Benefits and harms of a universal GBS screening programme

Benefits

The evidence on the clinical effectiveness of universal GBS screening is limited and focusses

on incidence rather than clinical outcomes. There have been no RCTs assessing the effects

of antenatal screening on the reduction of morbidity, clinical outcomes, and mortality from

EOGBS. RCTs on the effects of screening on the clinical outcomes and mortality from EOGBS

would be challenging due to immense sample size requirements. However, in the absence

of RCTs, it is difficult to quantify the potential impact of adding universal screening to risk-

based practice. The risk of bias from observational study designs is well-documented, in

particular, due to the risk of confounding factors contributing to results. The majority of

studies on GBS screening use historical controls and compare the rates of EOGBS during

different periods of time in which different GBS prevention guidelines were introduced. The

control periods (no screening and/or risk-based prevention) precede the universal screening

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periods. Risk of bias is higher in these studies as participants in the study and control period

are not contemporaneous so other changes occurring between these periods may

contribute to the results. Even in the few observational studies that compare screening to

concurrent controls, these studies often retrospectively compare women with a culture

result to all other women; this may be biased as people who accept screening are

systematically different to those who do not.78

Another limitation, as mentioned above, is

that many studies do not report the findings in term pregnant women alone, which is the

eligible population that screening could impact. Finally, many studies only include culture-

proven EOGBS, thus changes may reflect a decreased likelihood of neonatal cultures being

positive due to IAP use, with culture negative cases of EOGBS being undetected. This may

distort the impact of screening.

A systematic review published in 2015 of nine observational studies from Turkey, Australia

and the US found that the odds of EOGBS under universal screening were 55% lower than

under risk-based prevention for all neonates and for term neonates only (three studies).79

There were limitations which may affect the internal and external validity of the studies.

Risk-based guidelines were not always clear and may have differed between studies, there

was a risk of misclassification bias, and the majority of the studies were based in the US.79

Findings from two more recent US studies also consistently report a decreased EOGBS

incidence with universal screening compared to the era without any screening, however,

reported benefits compared to the era with a risk-based approach are inconsistent.80 81

A

similar recent study in a UK maternity unit found that the rate of EOGBS fell from 0.99 per

1,000 live births in the risk-based period to 0.33 per 1,000 live births during the screening

period; however, this did not reach statistical significance (risk ratio [RR] 0.33, p=0.08).48

Additional analysis of mothers who were actually screened compared to the pre-screening

period was reported as statistically significant (0.16 versus 0.99 per 1,000 live births, RR

0.16, p<0.05). However, the mothers who accepted screening may have been systematically

different. The authors acknowledged that there were statistically significant differences in

several maternal characteristics between the screening and risk-based periods. In addition,

there was a low rate of IAP in the carrier population and the authors suggested that factors

beyond the screening programme may have influenced the reduction in EOGBS. The authors

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published a second study after the cessation of their GBS programme finding that EOGBS

incidence had increased from 0.33 to 1.79 per 1,000 live births, which was statistically

different when adjusting for ethnicity (RR 5.67, p=0.009).82

Again, this study may be biased

due to the inclusion of differing populations across differing time periods.

Internationally there has been a suggestion for studies to explore all-cause early-onset

sepsis, however, these findings have been contradictory.61 83 84

The impact of universal GBS screening on clinical outcomes of EOGBS is unclear. In relation

to mortality, results are inconsistent. Two studies conducted in the US did not find a change

in the mortality rate between periods with and without universal screening.80 81

On the

other hand, a Hungarian study reported decreased EOGBS mortality rates from 19.5%

(29/149) to 1.6% (1/63) after the introduction of screening compared with no prevention.85

Harms

An examination of the potential harms is a standard part of the assessment of any screening

proposal. Based on the estimated PPVs of culture testing indicated above (0.2%),

approximately 138,933 term pregnant women per year would be eligible for IAP.

Approximately 99.8% (138,655 pregnant women and babies) would be overdiagnosed and

overtreated as they would have never had a neonate with EOGBS even without IAP. This

makes assessing the harms of treatment particularly important. A cost-effectiveness model

published in the UK also estimated that adding screening to risk-based prevention would

result in 99.8% overtreatment (increasing antibiotic use in the pregnant population from

11% to 27%).77

Recently, an expert group convened by the UK NSC completed a modelling

exercise concluding that adding screening to a risk-based strategy in the UK would result in

an additional 1,675 to 1,854 women receiving IAP to prevent one EOGBS case and 24,065 to

32,087 to prevent one EOGBS death.47

This is similar to another study where the authors

found that 1,191 women would need to be treated with IAP to prevent one EOGBS case.86

Although the models contain a level of uncertainty because of the limitations and gaps in

the evidence, the estimates all support the high levels of overtreatment that would occur

when adding screening to risk-based prevention.

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A systematic review of 30 studies found little evidence to quantify the potential harms of

IAP to mothers and babies.87

Although a range of adverse effects were investigated, studies

specifically on GBS prophylaxis were observational and at high or unclear risk of bias while

13 RCTs at lower risk of bias investigated different drugs and regimens to GBS prophylaxis.

Key findings from the review were around changes in gut microbiota, long term outcomes,

and antibiotic resistance.

There was consistent evidence that IAP for GBS prophylaxis alters neonatal gut microbiota

up to 90 days of age.88-94

These findings have been mirrored in similar studies,95 96

however,

it is unknown whether microbiota alterations specifically from GBS prophylaxis are

associated with long-term clinical outcomes. Early infant exposure to antibiotics and gut

microbiota changes have been implicated in autism, metabolic problems such as obesity

and diabetes, and atopic, inflammatory, and autoimmune problems such as asthma,

allergies, necrotising enterocolitis, and Crohn’s disease.97-100

The impact of IAP on antibiotic

resistance was inconsistent in the literature, with some evidence of an increase in the

resistance of some antibiotics for some pathogens, with others showing no increase.93 101-105

Globally, most GBS isolates are susceptible to penicillin,106

however, in the US in 2005, 0.2%

of GBS isolates were reaching the upper level of susceptibility for one or more beta-

lactams.107

Finally, there was a particular lack of information on the long-term outcomes of

IAP. There was evidence from only one RCT using different IAP to GBS prophylaxis which

showed that IAP was moderately associated with serious consequences of functional

impairment and cerebral palsy at seven years of age.108

However, the biological plausibility

of IAP causing cerebral palsy is unknown and another trial on IAP for preterm rupture of

membranes found no evidence that IAP was associated with cerebral palsy.108-110

Maternal anaphylaxis is another important harm to consider as it has potentially fatal

consequences. However, as it is rare, it is difficult to explore in well-designed studies other

than very large RCTs. In the US, four anaphylactic cases associated with GBS prophylaxis

were reported since the introduction of guidelines in 1996 up to 2010.19

Another study in

Texas reported 19 cases of all-cause maternal anaphylaxis (2.7 cases per 100,000 deliveries)

in 2004-05.111

Eleven cases were due to penicillin and cephalosporin and the authors

speculated that it was likely that these antibiotics were used for GBS prevention. In the UK,

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the rate of all-cause maternal anaphylaxis has been reported at 1.6 per 100,000 maternities

(37 cases in three years, 11 due to penicillin) and one was a result of GBS prophylaxis. Two

mothers (5%) died and 14 (38%) mothers and 7 (41%) neonates required intensive care

admission.112 113

Other reported harms in small observational studies at risk of bias, included

neonatal respiratory distress,114

maternal thrush,115

and childhood atopic dermatitis.116

The current evidence on the benefits and harms of universal GBS screening is based mainly

on observational studies that are small, subject to bias, and/or have applicability concerns.

Therefore, the balance of benefits and harms from GBS screening and IAP cannot be

quantified, especially as the long-term impact of EOGBS and of IAP is poorly understood.

The scale of overtreatment and range of plausible harms require a better understanding

before we can be confident that IAP at this scale is a safe undertaking. In the era of

antimicrobial resistance, such a widespread IAP strategy may also be challenging in relation

to the UK Department of Health and Social Care’s antimicrobial resistance strategy to

reduce unnecessary use of antibiotics.117

Research agenda for EOGBS prevention

In 2007, a cost-effectiveness model concluded that investments in prenatal vaccination

research should be prioritised over screening research.77

However, interest has remained to

evaluate the impact of universal GBS screening. In 2017, the Health Technology Assessment

launched an expression of interest for a cluster randomised trial assessing whether

screening women for carriage of GBS in late pregnancy reduces the occurrence of early-

onset sepsis, whether the benefits outweigh the harms, and whether it would be cost-

effective.

In addition to trial evidence, research to understand the natural history of GBS could help to

improve the balance of benefits and harms for future proposed screening programmes.

Better identification of the women at most risk of having a neonate with EOGBS could

reduce the amount of overtreatment to thousands of women and their babies. To this end,

research is needed to better predict which mothers with GBS carriage will transmit GBS to

their neonate, which mothers with GBS carriage will have a neonate that develops EOGBS,

and which neonates with GBS colonisation will progress to EOGBS disease. Similarly, test

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accuracy research is needed to reliably detect GBS colonisation and bacterial load during

labour, including development of the latest in-labour tests and accurate measurement of

who is colonised in labour and how heavily. Finally, research is required on the long-term

follow up of neonates who are diagnosed with EOGBS to understand the clinical morbidity

experienced.

There is also a lack of evidence about what currently happens in practice. Little is known

about the impact of private GBS carriage testing or the values and priorities informing

women’s decision-making. Further work should be undertaken to understand this.

Conclusions

GBS infection is an important health problem and more work to understand and prevent

neonatal invasive disease is required. Universal antenatal GBS culture screening is a

complex area and a poor evidence base means that, so far, it does not meet UK NSC criteria

needed to introduce screening programmes. Selective maternal culture is not an accurate

predictor of EOGBS disease in neonates, and a lack of understanding about why some

colonised mothers have a neonate with EOGBS limits the ability to identify an approach that

reduces the rate of overdiagnosis. At present, if a GBS screening programme is

implemented, it would offer all term pregnant women the antenatal GBS culture test, but

over 99% of screen-positive mothers (and their babies) would be overdiagnosed and

unnecessarily receive IAP, as they would not have a neonate with EOGBS even without

intervention. The harm from widespread IAP to thousands of pregnant women and their

babies is unknown while the evidence on the benefit from a screening programme is

uncertain due to lower quality studies with serious limitations. The long-term morbidity of

EOGBS is also largely unknown as is the impact of screening upon it. Given the state of the

evidence base, the balance of the benefits and harms from introducing universal GBS

screening cannot be quantified.

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Boxes

Figure caption / legend:

Figure 1. Natural history of GBS in a hypothetical cohort of term pregnant women in year

2000 (no prevention guideline) and 2014 (risk-based guideline)

Abbreviations: GBS Group B Streptococcus, EOGBS early-onset group B Streptococcus, NPV Negative predictive value, PPV

Positive predictive value

Notes: Due to the uncertainties of the data, the numbers should be treated cautiously for a sense of scale but not as exact

estimates. Data estimates and sources:

a. Pregnant women available for screening in 2000 and 2014: All livebirths taken from the Office for National

Statistics,64

then elective caesarean sections and preterm births (<37 weeks) were removed from the cohort

using HES estimates,65 66

as elective caesarean sections are not at risk of EOGBS and preterm births are not

eligible for screening. Note: Rate for pre-term births in 2000 is taken from 2004-05.

b. Maternal GBS carriage: 22%.47

c. Number of EOGBS disease cases and mortality taken from British Paediatric Surveillance Unit study.5-7

d. Long-term disability: 8.7-15.8% of surviving EOGBS cases.55-57

e. Short-term EOGBS morbidity: Meningitis 13.2%; Sepsis 63.1%; Pneumonia 23.7%.6

f. EOGBS cases with maternal risk factors: 33-37% of EOGBS cases will have at least one risk factor for intrapartum

antibiotic prophylaxis.6

Key messages

1. Early-onset group B Streptococcus disease (< 7 days of life, EOGBS) is an

important health problem and efforts should continue to better understand

and prevent it. However, a screening programme is not currently

appropriate as internationally agreed screening criteria are not met.

2. The natural history, particularly, the development from maternal GBS

carriage to EOGBS disease is poorly understood and maternal carriage is a

poor predictor of EOGBS.

3. This could lead to over 99% of screen-positive women and their babies

receiving unnecessary intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis (IAP).

4. The addition of universal screening to risk-based prevention appears to

reduce the incidence of EOGBS. However, a lack of high quality evidence on

the harms and benefits of GBS screening and widespread IAP means that

quantifying the impact of universal screening in addition to risk-based

prevention is not possible.

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Conflict of interest declarations:

This research was commissioned by the UK National Screening Committee (NSC). Sian

Taylor-Phillips, Chris Stinton, Hannah Fraser and Aileen Clarke are supported by the National

Institute for Health Research CLAHRC West Midlands initiative. Anne Mackie is the Director

of the UK NSC, John Marshall is the Evidence Lead and Cristina Visintin is an Evidence

Review Manager for the UK NSC. The views expressed in this publication are those of the

authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the National Institute for Health Research,

Public Health England, or the Department of Health. Any errors are the responsibility of the

authors.

Data sources and contributors:

The sources of information used to prepare this manuscript are from the NSC policy reviews

of 2012 and 2016, in addition to the GBS model that was developed by the UK NSC, and

studies on GBS epidemiology and screening published after the 2016 NSC review.

This piece of research and the completion of this manuscript involved a multi-disciplinary

team of information specialists, epidemiologists, infectious disease, microbiology, and

obstetrics and gynaecology consultants, screening and public health specialists, statisticians,

and reviewers. AM, the Director of the UK NSC, JM, the Evidence Lead for the UK NSC, and

CV, an Evidence Review Manager contributed to the writing of this manuscript but did not

conduct any of the review processes or the synthesis and interpretation of the original

reviews. The research team below conducted the 2016 NSC review for GBS.

FS has completed a PhD specialising in GBS screening and has previously conducted

systematic reviews, including NSC reviews; FS secured funding, co-ordinated the review

process, developed the protocol, created and applied the search strategy to collect the data,

sifted, extracted, and quality assessed 20% of the articles, and synthesised the data for the

2016 review. FS also combined the evidence from the 2012 and 2016 NSC evidence reviews

selecting the best available evidence for the purpose of this article and led the writing of

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this manuscript. JG is an expert systematic reviewer specialising in screening and test

accuracy and has previously conducted NSC reviews; JG carried out data sifting, extraction,

quality assessment, and synthesis for all of the data for the 2016 review, reviewed the

merging of data between the 2012 and 2016 evidence reviews, and reviewed the

manuscript for redrafting. OU, CS and KF are also expert systematic reviewers who have

conducted previous reviews for the NSC and health technology assessments for NICE; they

contributed to protocol development for the 2016 review and reviewed this manuscript for

redrafting. JP is a medical doctor with expertise in evidence-based medicine and systematic

reviews who has conducted NSC reviews; JP reviewed this manuscript for redrafting. NM is

an academic public health physician and epidemiologist with expertise in infectious disease

control, ER is the lead public health microbiologist for East Midlands Pubic Health England,

and CB is a consultant in infectious diseases and medical microbiology at Public Health

England; they contributed to protocol development for the 2016 review and reviewed this

manuscript for redrafting, providing expertise on infection and microbiology. BT is a clinician

scientist, consultant obstetrician & gynaecologist and RCOG accredited subspecialist in

reproductive medicine who has managed numerous patients with GBS in pregnancy; BT

contributed to protocol development for the 2016 review and reviewed this manuscript for

redrafting, providing obstetrics and gynaecology expertise. SJ is an academic support

librarian and HF has studied the Masters in Screening course; they contributed to protocol

development, search strategy development, and data collection of the 2016 review, and

reviewed this manuscript for redrafting. AC is a clinical public health academic who heads

the Division of Health Sciences at the Warwick Medical School and leads one of nine

technology assessment review teams providing systematic reviews to NICE; AC contributed

to protocol development for the 2016 review, and reviewed this manuscript for redrafting.

STP is an associate professor of screening and test evaluation with wide experience in

systematic reviews specialising in screening, including NSC reviews; STP secured the

funding, co-ordinated the review process and developed the protocol for the 2016 review,

and reviewed this manuscript for redrafting.

Acknowledgements

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We would like to thank Dr Michael Millar, Dr Arlene Reynolds, and Dr Magdalena Skrybant

for providing advice and input into this research. We would also like to thank Nick

Johnstone-Waddell for providing graphical input for the report.

Licence

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behalf of all authors, an exclusive licence (or non exclusive for government employees) on a

worldwide basis to the BMJ Publishing Group Ltd ("BMJ"), and its Licensees to permit this

article (if accepted) to be published in The BMJ's editions and any other BMJ products and

to exploit all subsidiary rights, as set out in our licence.”

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631,512 term pregnant women in UK

138,933 GBS positive 492,579 GBS negative

some will change GBS status during pregnancy

350 term neonates with EOGBS

deaths10

treated and recover286-310

long term disability30-54

573,448 term pregnant women in UKYear 2000

126,159 GBS positive 447,289 GBS negative

some will change GBS status during pregnancy

205 term neonates with EOGBS

deaths13

treated and recover162-175

long term disability17-30

represents 4,000 women

represents 50 neonates

represents 4,000 women

represents 50 neonates

Year 2014

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