conflict in south asia: the ldc (least developedconflict o insecurity is a key variable in the...
TRANSCRIPT
‘Conflict in South Asia: The
LDC (Least Developed
Country) Perspective’
Ranjini Basu
Fayyaz Yaseen
Barkha Sharda
INTRODUCTION
Conflict can be understood as some form of friction, disagreement,
or discord arising within a group when the beliefs or actions of one
of more members of the group are either resisted by or
unacceptable to one or more members of another group.
Vulnerability according to ldc (least developed countries) is defined
as the relative risk posed to a country‟s development by exogenous
(external)shocks.
Gardner (2005) summarizes four key variables which have been
frequently mentioned in the literature: insecurity, inequality, private
incentives and perceptions.
CONFLICT
O Insecurity is a key variable in the presence of a security dilemma.
The security dilemma refers to situations when conflict is a result
of security-seeking behavior. The inability of the state to protect
all groups within its borders spurs various groups to elevate the
provision of security to a primary concern, and attempts to
increase security by one group may decrease the perceived
security of another group, often resulting in conflicts (Walter
1999; Snyder and Jervis 1999).
O Inequality especially, „horizontal inequality‟ which is defined as
differences or deprivation across recognizable groups in society.
This type of inequality can be measured across political
participation, economic endowment, human assets, social status
etc. Although the existence of horizontal inequality does not
always cause armed conflict, group inequalities underpin
grievances that are important to mobilization for conflict (Stewart
2005).
• The political and economic incentives for potential leaders and potential
followers are quite relevant in understanding conflict. Leaders
may be motivated by political goals or economic gains.
Those in power are likely to initiate conflict when they feel
threatened, and those not in power use conflict to gain
power. Followers can also have private incentives. Stewart
(2005) describes how ethnicity and ideology are used by
leaders pursuing political goals.
• Perceptions are equally important in understanding conflict.
The group identity and the degree of group cohesion are
crucial in facilitating mobilization of rebel groups. Ethnic
cleavages, divergence in religion, group inequalities and
grievances can be created and magnified by perceptions
through histories, fears and myths. Perceptions are used
instrumentally to create or exacerbate other causes of
conflict (Lake and Rothchild 1998).
COMMON MAN‟S UNDERSTANDING OF LDC
CRITERION
A country which has the lowest indicator of socio-economic development combined with the lowest human development indices ratings of all the countries in the world falls under the ldc category.
The indicators are as follows-
Poverty
Human resource weakness based on health, education, adult literacy etc.
Economic vulnerability (instability of agriculture and export of goods etc.)
IDENTIFICATION OF LDCS
The three criteria for the identification of ldcs are: (i) Gross
National Income (GNI) per capita, (ii) Human Asset Index
(HAI); and (iii) Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI). The HAI
and EVI are composite indices of various indicators to
measure the long-term structural weaknesses of these
economies (United Nations 2008).
Forty eight (48) ldcs have been identified across the world of
which twenty three (23) fall under „conflict‟ ldcs. In South Asia,
Bangladesh and Bhutan fall under non-conflict ldcs while
Afghanistan and Nepal fall under the category of conflict ldcs.
HUMAN ASSET INDEX (HAI) INDICATORS
The HAI is a combination of four indicators related both to
the level of health and nutrition and to the level of education:
(I) THE PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION THAT IS
UNDERNOURISHED;
(II) THE RATE OF MORTALITY FOR CHILDREN
AGED FIVE YEARS AND UNDER;
(III) THE GROSS SECONDARY SCHOOL ENROLMENT
RATIO;
(IV) THE ADULT LITERACY RATE.
ALL FOUR INDICATORS CARRY EQUAL WEIGHT IN
THE CALCULATION.
GROSS NATIONAL INCOME (GNI)
It is the sum of a nation‟s gross domestic product (GDP) plus net
income received from overseas. Gross national income (GNI) is
defined as the sum of value added by all producers who are
residents in a nation, plus any product taxes (minus subsidies) not
included in output, plus income received from abroad such as
employee compensation and property income. GNI measures
income received by a country both domestically and from overseas.
COMPOSITION OF THE ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY INDEX
(EVI)
O EXPOSURE INDEX(1/2)
O SIZE SUB-INDEX (POPULATION) (1/8)
O LOCATION SUB-INDEX (REMOTENESS) (1/8)
O EONOMIC STRUCTURESUB-INDEX (1/8) WHERE WE HAVE MERCHANT EXPORT CONCERTATION (1/16) AND SHARE OF AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY AND FISHERIES(1/16)
O ENVIRONMENT SUB-INDEX (1/8) SHARE OF POPULATION IN LOW ELEVATED COASTAL ZONES
* UNITED NATIONS 2011
O SHOCK INDEX (1/2)
O TRADE SHOCK SUB-
INDEX (1/4) INSTABILITY
OF EXPORTS OF GOODS
AND SERVICES
O NATURAL SHOCK SUB-
INDEX (1/4) VICTIMS OF
NATURAL DISASTERS (1/8)
AND INSTABILITY OF
AGRICULTURAL
PRODUCTION (1/8)
O Why Does Conflict Arise?
Reasons behind conflicts
O Conflicts are byproducts of insecurities
O Unequal and unjust social structures
O Economic un-equality
O Social identity is threatened
O Approach towards cultural/ethnic/linguistic/
racial/religious etc. differences
O Competition for scarce resources (territory, land,
water, oil, income, jobs etc.)
O People‟s unhappiness with the way they are
governed – demand for independence,
sovereignty
O Enforcement of political and religious
ideologies upon minorities
O Geo-political interests and power blocks
Consequences of CONFLICTS:
the LDC perspective
“And to think that the cost of one AK-47 rifle is enough
to buy vitamin A capsules that can prevent blindness of
3,000 one year olds; a 10 million worth of anti-personal
landmine is enough to provide immunization to
approximately 7.7 million children against 6 deadly
childhood diseases; the cost of 23 fighter planes can
provide for iodized salt for ten years to protect 1.6
billion people at risk of mental retardation due to iodine
deficiency and the cost of 11 radar evading bombers is
enough to provide 4 years of primary education to 135
million children who are not in school (Serrano 2008).”
• Social Consequences
Mortality levels- battle deaths & total
deaths(malnutrition, starvation, crimes, disease)
Legacy effects- conflicts cause disability, rise in
disease burden
Causes displacement
Impact on women and children (research shows that
conflict may not have an impact on education
Human Security Report 2012)
• Economic consequences
Economic decline
Infrastructure
Military spending
Time horizons (short term goals, rather than long term goal
meeting)
Capital flights (investments move away from the conflict
zones)
Government short sighted policies, higher military
expenditure, reduction in aide, reduction in tax revenue, all to
an inflationary situation.
(African Development Report 2008-09)
• In case of regional conflicts, regional cooperation in matters of
trade and resource sharing comes to a halt, having an impact on
the development of the region
• Gross Human Rights violation
• Impediment to human and economic growth
• Barriers to service delivery.
• Conflicts in general effect the security, justice and governance in
the region.
Policy Recommendations
• Ensuring security of the people.
• Economic policies should be geared not just to maximise
growth, but also to address the distributional or political
factors that led to the conflict
• Cross-border cooperation between countries should be an
integral part of any strategy to reduce conflict
• Talks with the insurgent groups.
• Government should expand welfare programmes to reduce
poverty in the conflict-affected areas as a means to
undercutting the support for the insurgency. (Ghani &Iyer
2010)
References
O Serrano, Evelyn Balais. 2010. Global Conflicts, Human Rights Violations
and Social Work Action. Accessed at:
http://www.cfess.org.br/pdf/evelyn_serrano.pdf
O African Development Report 2008-09
O Human Security Repost 2012
O Ghani, Ejaz & Lakshmi Iyer. 2010. Conflict & Development. Accessed at:
http://www.voxeu.org/article/conflict-and-development-lessons-
south-asia