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TRANSCRIPT
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( 2 )
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1f~;f§fl'U 0 Labys {&~I:t'tJlffqj a~~~1,*# ' lm~I:t'tJ ~#l(~fIJ:5t~IZ9~ : OHIH1U11~~I'l~~~ (regular supply) ,t/[J4:$L ; (2)4lf~#l(~~iJJl'J9~I=l'tJ ( annualsupply ) '.::E*' #fin; ; (3)1Z9~#l(~tJ';J~~ (perennial supply), t/[J~~
; (4)f1§~#l(~~~M (cyclial supply)' t/[J~ , 4: 0 ~tfLabYs 1'J9:5t~RJ9;DL:j::
~&j#l(~JIj~1Jl'j~~~ 0 AJt.!f!.ffi~ijJj;§JjmHi~~~-ffi~ Ezekiel ( 1938 ) ffl~1±l
~~m~ffijij ( cobweb theorem ) 0 ~W~Nerlove ( 1958) 'Harlow(l962
) 1*. Waugh ( 1946) ~Afm1tf~lEf~' ~.ffltt~~~JE ; ~:f!H®1l11I'J9IH~(recursive system ) , tEit'F~.~tit1N~:5tffT' ~~~t:liJli~i!&J!jtiiJ~g~~.
,~1*.~~®~~~iJJ~f1§m~9"G~'B~~~~~ffl,~B;J~~~~~~~1'J9
1l.-Wif.~ ( ff=) 0 ~ffl~m~ffijij , ffl~:lz:I't>}~1l~m~ (recursive model
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*il!:1:~~n1t~1J{~, ~1J{~;:JI~~£~~\' ~~~M~\'Jit:~~J:~ 0 ~m~
~il!:rFl'Mn1t-f)i~jiIHiUJtI'J9IUlf* (causal chain relationship) 0 fllUl~m
m~I'J9W~iiJ1rTi~~1i'-l1i : (l)1Jl~ik:JE~7t~~~m~~" ' 1:~~~" ~ml'J9
ft:!~~ " ( pr ice taker), (2)~~±~ik:JE~tlimM~#1;~*~;(3)1:~gf.
±~~~~M~~ ; (4)1:~Nl!~~\rijl ( lag) -:100 ; (5)1lj(1:~ ( actual
production ) ~~~tiI~~ (planned production) ; J1tf)im~I'J9W~AJt~
m~£~~~*£~~~a~~(~~)o
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tl.tF~~.~~.~~~fij;~~A.ii!t.'fiil.fij;4:~~.~A~*(~Afl~
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Citt.=: J .Tomek, W.G. and K.L. Robinson, Agricultural Product Prices, Cornell University Press, 1972, Ch. 9.
(itttIY) : Waugh ( 1964 ) lm~~~.~~jI~i±:l ( lagged output)~.'
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A DJkI¥9!i:bO ' ~f~FI~j$}tiAll~lf.~1H~:tJI;~:I:~Y , J!i8:bolf.r~I7'fUtl¥9~*
tiL:1J (demand pull ) , tt~~;fJtiH3m?l-~Dlf.~tJI;lJ!fflm 0 tiiiLI:.3l!t ' ~~~~~~MlI~lf.~tJI;~.,~~~~~~~.,.~,~~m~j$}tiAlI
~lf.~;fJ~tJI;~.~~~,~~~j$}tiAll~lf.~;fJ~tJI;~:I:'~~*~~;
(~~~All~lf.~;fJ~~~-=), ~ (llfftl.'tllf.:D~:I:),
gg " ~';l:*IlJ~1i1J(~liJ.
t10~~fi}All~~;fJ~tJI;~:I:~~~PJf3Ilj;, ~MlI~lf.~#Ii~.~~M~
~~m.'~~~~~-Mm~I¥9j$}~~m'~ll~lf.~~*:I:~~#Ii~.'ffi
~~~~Mll~lf.~~*.~~~~Mllfft~~#Ii~:I:'X~Mll~~~~~.
~.Jt~~ 'Wftt ~Mllfftlf.~~~.l:iiJmU~j\:;~.Jk ( predeterminedvariable ) 0 tlH~m*J:!l!~ , ~~M~j$}~All~lf.~'"~tJI;~.!i:bO ' ~~~Mll~~~~1~Hr(ml'~ ; RZ, 5{U~~'i'WHi~,*~~~fj(mJ:.lJi0
~D,*~~j$}~~fj(m£~~~~m~,*~m~,~~.~~mw~,~~
M~~*,~~.~ft~~m~~~~m;~~~D~~~.I¥9~*'~~~§
ffi~DI¥9~~l',£~~~~m~~~m~Z~.~m~~D~~m~~*.1¥9
~~'W~oo-M(t-lM)~m~~~m~nA'tttJl;lJ!mtMffl~'~~
mtM~~iiJ~~~~~Jko~~~D~PJfn.~~Dlf.~•• ,~~mt-l
M~~I¥9fj(m*.mz,~~~.~mtM~~mmI~~I¥9.Jko
~.~1!E~tJF,ll~D~~~~fIljZn1Jt$5{U' tt~~Ji(;*mnfj(j;~ , ffltt~
D~~~~fj(m~~D'*~~~~~1Jtm~H&~~.'~D,*~mll~,*~
1¥9~~~'~~Dlf.~~j$}~~fj(m~H&.~~'~RIJ!~~D~~~~1Jtm
,~W~'ll~lf.~~~1Jtmo~~~Dlf.~Jk:l:~~~~~mz~.,-~W
~,~m~Dlf.~••Mm~lf.~m~Z~~.~~'fflttm~~Dlf.~#Ii~:I:~~~~~.~~l¥9m.'~~'.M.~m~D~mMOO~.~~ffl~'@.
~*ft*flJiMl¥9~DflIjWii' ~f!URM~~m.~~I¥9I!*~~' 1l0Gli~Dlf.~
~~fIlj~~A~*Zn~rr~'~~~~Dlf.~~g~m±~~~~~~~~~
fJ(m~N&'W~~~DJk.I¥9~.~~o~W~*~~MOOM~~~I¥9-M~
IJIfm. ' 130 ti~~~{;I{;fit:l:~ ~1l65 ~ 661f::?1- ' 1f::#!i~.*j<].t;f~ 6,000 ~IGLi.:t1, ~D~~JUUlUffi~1l631f::1¥91,251 ~1G!i~~m 731f:: 24,069 ~.(~m641f::Z~D:I:~?I-)'~~~1l~lf.~~~.m~~~~ffL~Z~M
~~1J(mffi 157.0 j[;J:.jIJ~ 272.8 j[; , Wlfl'J'{1Jlmffi 290. 7j[;~m 262.3 j[; , ~~~D~~~~iIlm~j$}~~ffz~M.~1Jlmffi !13.10 Jtift~ 158.3 j[; , W1tf{fJ(t§ ffi 209.4 j[;~ 152.2 j[; ; t1iJ:!l!W~ , ~ D,*~~.~ll~~~tJI;lJ!z~
( 9 )
- 56 -
,@, i'fUf~*.«iJ1J'l.~c:rlf~, jIjB~~c:rlf~fJ{Ji;;:::)j1JQ''&'1lJm/J\1tlil:lf~~
~c:rlf~Z.~,mm~OOffl~.~.*,~~~~m~,m~~~~_~~'&'
WH~~~m:~fttlU'{flm W~i1ii :ti1Jn ' ~ , :ft1JlJ RJ1ft~ ~: m~~ 0 If~ ~:I::ti
110' ~IU~1J'l.lf~~!i..' tltmA~3tif~.~~(G~Ji:lf~ , ll~mRimf4~~,mAm~ll~~n~M~Ji:lf~~~~~m'~~~~il:lf~~~Dlf~z
iJ(~1Jn*, ?JUP:(E*if1GMrdl~Dlf~fJ{:I::tj1l0 ' RJ~sl~~Ji:lf~~~iJ(~~~o
~~'~.~Ji:lf~~~~m~,~~~~~«ft~(~~)~~~~A1lJ
~fflmf4o~~~~,~1ft~ill~Ji:lf~~~~~~.'RJ~~~:
( ~Ji:lf~~~ ~~). =F fc ~~~A~Ji:lf~~~~~JD. , (~~~A~olf~~:if{M:I:), Jl(~Olf~~~~J}¥1Ilm~lUlmZ~!J), ,Cf!l'ft~~m)" (~A~~mm~),
1i" ~lijI~*lIiti
'&'~Ji:lf~m~Z~MJm*c primary demand ) :lfjt1JQ~ , ~sl~tiil:lf
~1JH~J::~ '®1;P:~~nx;*If:J!~J!iJJ1'*' ~~iY5~:lfjt1JU~ffJ~, ~WJjJi::ttB
m~l'tilm*±ilIn '~~~~~m~mm, PJf~~~m~m*z:ti1Jn, ~~fZiI::ttB
m~Zm>J<±i:tm, I!Osl$m*C derived demand) :lfjt1JU, sl$m>J<±i1Jn(G*'6*
, ~~iI::ttB~*lfiJ(m~~ 0 fNHIU::illt ' 1lJ1ft~illS!$m*~~ , ~~*~~ :
~ EEsl $m*~.J{ijKitiWH)]fl1;lfm. ~~~. ' :PH!~ti Ji:lf~~~~fJ{ ,
~~.A~il:lf~~:if{~M.~.~'~il:lf~~.~m~.'~1lJ~rom~~
.lf~~m~*zfJJ~~i1!fm~o
~,~~~~~~~~~~Z~~~#
- " @;'Hl~Jl.1t
fN.~~Z~.~*'1lJ~ll~.lf~~~~~~,m*~W:ttB*~~.
lf~~m~*l'tiliJJ~~~m~,:(E~.~ll-M~~~I'til~~~~om~~m~
~l'tilm~~~~.'~~J::illt~~fJ{H*~m~~~'~~~~63~~~~lf
~§EE~O' ~nx;tERi~64' 65~66 ~=~zWlWi:\1:lfmlt~~il:lf~~~:I:
(GfM~~.' tEJlt~~~l;;t1!lUIU'fJ{ ( dummy variable) ~~Z o3(Ji::!'l£/'ff$
( 10 )
- 57 -
tf-1Jm';t~~~il&~IJU!!tz ' ~P~~~JlJil&mj&mt¥9~.fflj~:~U'tz ' $[ii::ttB~*tf-ilmt¥951$~*ililtlHlffi' ~m-m~t:p~tl~ t ~WiI:ttB~*!f1Jt1JJi'!~
m-M~~'*~tz~~ilitz'®~m~lit¥9~~m~~m~w~~~~~m~o~
~,~m~t:pm~t¥9~~~tz'~.~~~~~AflM~~nt¥9~~~tz,m
)f'mgft¥9fi§~, [email protected]§~fif1t~l!iij~IFFlI~ ( stochastic dis-
turbance ) 0 **it l:lllli' il'Mtf-FftJf;Jl;~~~m~t¥9~--+~m~~tml':HM~re:tj::~lt#li~~
eN, = {310+ {3l1 CN'-1+ s;(~;;::: )+ {311 M'-t + (:3/< D+ ut •.... ( 4 . 1 . 1~ )
ATBQ, = TBQ,/POp, ( 4.1 . 3 ~ )
TBRP, ={3<o +{3.tAT BQ,+{3" AIBQ, + (3••ACF,+{3.. PRP, +P'••DPI, +u,
.......................................................................... ( 4.1.4~)
~~m~~~lt8'i1}E~:
l.P3j:~lt
c~ :.taM~~tf-.lt(~.)o
TBQ, :. t a~iItf-~f;Jl;~ii (:6~) 0
ATBQ, :. t Mzp.:tf3-w:A~iItf-~fl~f;Jl;~ii (0JT / A) 0
TBRP, :. t M~ .!I:4:~~t§fjfm ( 5t / 0 JT) 0
2.~1:.lt
SBP'_2MFP,_2
M,
SR,
POP,
AIBQ,
:.t-2M~~~*tf-~m(5t/M)~~~fjfm(5t/:6JT
)z.!t°: • t Wl~~{f:; =fIt~~~~51~il'ltkzfIJ (ail') 0
.• tM~iI'*~~~~- (.tMtf- ~.lt)• -( t tj:: ft••lt)
: • t M~ A. Dltk ( f- A. ) 0
:.tazp.:tf3-w:A~Dtf-~fl~f;Jl;~ii(0JT/A)o
( 11 )
-58-
ACF,
PRP,
DPI,
D
Ui
: m t MjlD tj=.~Zf-~1i1}ffJlJ~1l;j§~H&U:o(3C/1}ff)o:mtMa~L~~~1l;j§(1}ff/3C)o
:mtMZf-~~A~~fflm~(~JC/A)o
: •••• 0 tE*if~Mrdj~1J 64 .. 65:&66 ~'=:1j::zD~ 1 •;lt~~~~~o
:liI• .:rfl~: i=l .2.4 0
a~~~~~zM~M(~zp.~.)".A.~#•• ·~~~.:r~~
~ • f9lJ14JM~mt£~ ...AU-lI-m-.K:&#••t£~ 0 ~~~~rflZUI1-tit
L~zli~ • j{U~f:I~Ji~~F~.~i9]lJ.~~~ ( non - stochastic linearmodel) • ~~~t£14J1'~~.l5fl:it 0
AY,+BY'-i+C Z, =0, u,-(0,a2 I) ( 4.2:it)
:itrfl:At£.M(mtM)~~••~~~~·Bt£~~(t-lM)~~.
~~.~•• C t£M-~••~~.~~ 0 Y" Y.o 1 • Z, 5t~U~jf>'I'M~~•• (.i]
:1:" ~iI~~•• (.i]:I: 0 'l'ftf:lU.M~~••f*ftfi$~· ~R~:UtVF7U14J
1':
1 0 0 0 CN.
-flZl 1 0 0 TBQ,A= 1 Y,=
0 -pop, 1 0 ATBQ.
0 0 -(3.1 1 4 X4 , TBRP, 4Xl
A~.~3;.!fP.i~f*.:l$Jt£1 • l1~F~~JC* ( element ) :l$JtE3;.!fP.i~~tr:1'
15 ' ~1$t-1I Subt r ia ngl e Matrix • ;lt~it~1lM:U~~o(ll: • i'i!l:~I?:JJ::tE
J1tfW~:iL~'EJ'lIttj=.~11t;~~tl!fm~.~~1ltE~~ ,;lt~l5fl:itz~. c e; )RJtlfflft/J\Zf-l57* (OLS) )j(f.io
=.. f!••~zJg:tH.fl.J.!I!:&;lt*~
'EJ'lIttj=.~11t;~~~~~~m.~~m~~J.!I!~~:iL~~~.M-,~m~RJ~
~tifl*1JQ~1i!iift~d:&.mU~iEjJJ1t0 ittifl-m-~ ;It*m 1W~t£1i!i?1{IJ
zl5~·~~~.:rZ*J.!I!o~~.flz.J.!I!:&;lt*~·~jf>~m~.=:oX~MW
~tj=.~.11t;~~.rfl·~~~$tj=.~;j§~~fl1l;j§~,~~~M,i'i!l:tE*if~M
( 12 )
- 59-
rdJ ( A'i1ill54 1f.~ 731f. ) :fl~Z3::jI!Pi~.ltB1J.~H~. ~A'i1B 561f.~ 731f.B1J
+J\1I.~llo
(::)7.1I1J :IE16*~~:fl~z&~W~B1JMIt,~~~It~~~fizo~~Q~~~$~:lEk6
* ' ?1J~:1R~O ~~3 °
~ ~ • It ~JiriMIt fjlM~!iJl t fU • ~
it lie: ~ ( s., ) 1.29370 (6 ) 2.32·· R' = 0.987-
M:mffl:LFimlt (CN,_I) 0.70995 ( + ) 9.27"· R' = 0.983
(l!M$tj:.1Jtm~ .( SBP,_.) 0.10137 (+ ) 1.81· F., la =247.18···fiiJ f.>j. 1R m •..,. MFP ,-a
Ii ~ it (M, _, ) -0.09185 ( - ) -5.96··· D.W. = 1.32
tJl Ie • It ( D ) 0.15465 ( 6 ) 6.96··· D.F.= 13.00
~:fjlM~~~~~MMIt~~~ltHM~~~mfjlMB1J~!iJlo
(6)~~W:IE°(+)~~ttB1Jo(-)~~~B1Jo
Fvi vvs
D.W.D.F.
******
:mlifilMlto: mlHl.lt~ttB1J~J:lEMIt 0
:£tififtfi:l: o: £ F ififtfiit 0 VI , V2 ?t~Ij~?tT .. ?tffl:Z § ~1.ft 0
: ~Durbin Watson ~fi:l: 0
:~tififtfi:l:§~1.fto
:£tll~FfU~I%~.~*~~,~m~o
:£tll~Fll~5%B1Jm~*~~,.~o
: £ t -OO:~FOO:~ 10 %B1Jm.*~~ , m~ °
~ ~ • It m••• mM~!iJl t 11 • ~
it lie: ~ (B 20 ) 7.61850 ( 6 ) 9.82"· R2 = 0.9901'00 :m ffl: If:. im It ( CN, ) 0.55721 (+ ) 4.68··· R' = 0.985~ ~ af.! (SR,) 0.88283 ( + ) 21.60"· F = 222.17·"~jI~iI:~~t§iJlm(TBRP'_l) 0.22923 (+ ) 2.23·· D.W. = 1.67It 1lJ£ it ( M. ) -0.34012 (- ) 6.33"· D.F. = 12.00tJl • • Jt( D ) 0.16012 ( 6 ) 3.65···
( 13 )
- 60-
~ ~ ~ It j@fM\H~lt Jjt!m~~ ttl «Ii tt
it ~ ~( B.. ) -4.39680 ( l::, ) -2.61- R' =0.946
lfS:f$JBfAtiJi:4'-~lj~~~:I: -0.20807 ( - ) -4.54- R' =0.924(ATBQ')ZP::f$JBfA~I=]4'-~lj~~~:I: 0.05095 (+ ) 2.30'" FS , 12 =41.81 ***U.IBQ, )~ I=] 4'-~ZP::f$JBf~ JTJIj¥1l~ 0.44083 ( + ) 4.44- D.W.=2.81wm.mZfIJ ( ACF.)
~~ 1: ~ ~ ~1l~( PRP,) 1.15650 (+ ) 5.62- D.P. =12.00
zp::f$J~APJ~mFJT~(DPIt) 0.49450 (+ ) 2.93 **
.= ' m!;~m~Z~~H~.1mJJJ¥g~~
EE~ 1 ~~3lJ{~~~*, FJTlIJ7,RJ¥gR" t ~iIT:I::&.F ~iIT:I: ' l'iJ~m~*~
~iIT~~~M~tt,~~~~iIT~~~W~~~~~H~~~~m~o@ft~~
~m~m~H**'~~iIT~~m~*~1m~W~~m~H*~~~m~,~~
~~HJ;t~fF~-~J¥g~m, ::;t;tt~{Mf{lJ{~~J¥g ( f orcas t ing purpose )J¥gm~
, tJ. ~If ( evaluate ) !£~~ ( test ) ~~c~~ 0 rmmj)t7tftT1J7.tjl~-:mlj~
~~m1J$'~1J~~EEm~**lli~~~~~m~1l,U~~~~.~~~(
.~1l ) iiM ( deviation) ~U ' ~iiiJliJ~~m~z~lJ{UooJJ 0 ~~m~m
~1m:t.J ~~~ , liJtJ.fflm~a 5Hf:f$J1J:m ( root -mean - square s imulati on
percent error, RMSP ) ~~ilJ/f\:f$J~~~ (Theil's inequality coefficient
) f'F ffi£ ffilJJl J¥gm I! 0
l.m~a7tlf.:f$J1JfR
,os: RMSP .s: 00
~ RMSP1lfljJj\~~m~zHltwJ(jgjJ;f!.<3$0
2~.~:f$J~~~'@~UIWU.~.M~o
_1 t (YD' + _1_± (yn'T t=l T t=1
( 14 )
fUH!l!iJ!f~if.f1J .40 jgj • ~1Il 75 if. 12 Jl - 61 -
T 170
jjJ{
140
125
110
95
80 L....__~__~ ~ _
56575859606162636465 6667 68!lJ 7071 72 73 iJ'.!iJIJ
~ 16000
~
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000 A
56 57 58 59 6061 6263 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 iJ'.!iJU
( 15 )
- 62 -
f;:ff/A
1. 04
0.90
0.76
0.62
0.34
0.20
56 57 5859 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 ::if.JiiJ
~4 ~~BA~~*~~~~~tZ.~m~~.~.~~
330
300
270
240
150........._-~--~--~---~--
5657 585960 61 6263 6465 666768 697071 72 73 ::if. JiIJ
( 16 )
- 63 -
(2) u, = --=----...Lt ey~ -yn'T t=l
_1 fen)'Tt=l
'iitu.-/l~~:1lf~~~, ~IHiU~.~-OO:~~~11:~!J\ 0 RMSP , u, ,u. ~5'\9=Jm-E1.~~Y~~~.I~H~' v: ~~~IHj([ 0
~M±~~~~~~.~-/l~~.m~~~m~~,w~~~~~.~~~
~'~~2~~5m~om~9=J~~~~OO.~~lli~.oo~.~m~~m:1lf'
~~~~.~~~~n~~~~~~~~*Rm~,.~*~~m~~z~.~
~~~~~~,~~~w~~~••~~~m~,**~~m~ft~~~~~~~~m~~,~~~~~.¢~~ma*~~~~~m~o
~~lmM±J!~~tJlI!~~~.B~~~~nm(RMSP) ~~U!J'1'~~~.( u. , u. )7jllj~zk6*~J~~(4 0 m~9=J.~RMSP .. u, ~u, ~-/l~~!J\.ft
~:1lfW~' .~~.-/l~.~m~~rdl.?Ij9=J~~~~!J\ , ~~*~~utJm.~nfi*o
~~. RMSP u, u.
MWf3:¢iilt. 0.0310 0.0150 0.0300
lfI~¢~~~jl 0.0444 0.0167 0.0334
zp.~WAti~¢~;ff~~~jl 0.0444 0.0177 0.0353
1fI~4-~ .Jt~1§1JU~ 0.0452 0.0226 0.0452
(::)~~~.~tt
-~w~ ,·*mH~~<z~m~UU~'1'\t?i.~.~~~, *MIUl'E*.~
-{l~Jj-/l ' ~130~~~m~H~:Mrdllm!&~~~Jjfl 0 l";SIJltffl~ft~~l:l'fU '
~~~~~~••~~.~.~~,~z~~••-/l~~IUl~~*,lm.~~l:-~m~~~z~~$;M~' ~~~~:Jl!:~~aftt~~,J{1j~*M~~~
~m~.$~~,~~~~~m~~~~~'.~~~~~M~~m~*o:Jl!:*
~~.~11:~~~,~~~~mm~~-~Jj.o
~~~~m~ftz~~~~~~~n~~~(4·25'\)'OO
( 17 )
-6(-
m;qJilt A Y. =Dj Y,_j +D. Z. , D j = -B , D. =-C 0
JlUljHUUU~~;t (reduced form) ,lID
Y, =1r1 Y'-I + 1r. Z, ( 4.3;t)
= .
k
= 1r~+IY._(k+l) +nEo Jr~ 1r. Z'on ( 4.4;t )
~lim~A-:fi.~tE • fll] 1rf+1~~[t;]~~~~ (null matrix) • Y.tE!ltMlYl
fHI[t;]~-1W:lt3Jj-M 0 ~93J 1r, ~i!HIr<u~~~~? m~jJi1r' ~lIitE~ (latent
root ) • A '1i A~~~OO/J\~ 1 • *7R1r1 ~r<u~~~~' @Dm~A-1f.)E
11 0 1r, a'iJ~l1~m Etrit~I11i~;ttt~ • flD I 1rl - U I =0
Etr~:!W tllU~ ~*~93J :
0 0 0 CN.
-0.55721 1 0 0 TBQ,A= Y.=
0 1 1 0 ATBQ,- POP,
0 0 0.20807 1 4X4 TBRP. 4 XI
0.70995 0 0 0 eN,_,
0 0 0 0.22933 TBQ,_,D,= Y'- I =
0 0 0 0 ATBQ,_,
0 0 0 0 4X4 , TBRP, 4Xl
( 18 )
- 65 -
;e: POP, j;JJ~;IiI73 1f:K!AIJIe 19,012 'fAff. ' 1iJf!J p6p, ~m 0.00005 ' ~JIt1iJf!J~ "I =A-I D. 0
0.70995 0 o _2XlO- e
o 0.229331C, =
o
o
o
o o o
2X 10-0 0 o o
0.70995-A 0
o -A o 0.22933
o o -A o=0
o
t, A' O' - 0.70995 A- 2 X 10-" ) =0
f:ISl:f.£2 X 10-11 :;I;;:/J\, IIUtBmffij/Nrr' JlU1iJf!J
A= 0 £!It A=0.70995
1m ...~zi@;.~i.
~ffiL~m~~.m'1iJ~*xm~li~~~~A~~~~~~~~.~
~'~~1iJm*~M~~~#.*~~~~~~m~o~.~~~m~m~~~
~*'1iJ~f!J~~m~~~~M~,n~~~~:
H we*ilf{Ie~~i€t~'ltH1:
ffi~~~1*~!!~llcm~5t ' t{:ft/J\zp.1.1~~IJ~ , mt{j@Jifi~Ilc~O~~~
.llco.~'ffiMWS*~Ie~i€t5t~~~*(.1 )1iJf!Jl.MWfl3:*~Ilc~~M~i€t~M:( SES) , SES ={j12 =0.10137
2.MWS*MIlc~*M~~M: ( LE S) , LE S =IS: {jSn =0.34949
L~~~i€t~M:~,.m~••~~**~m~~fl~m~'L§I%~
, ~MPge*~Ilc~~1JO 0.1 % ' ffijtE*MflfjS*~Ilc~ii1JO 0.35 ~ 0 It~*
( 19 )
- 66 -
WHj~i(HIJI~*nHilWl#HiH'IIH~ • ill ff:i~~ IJ'~ 1 • Ih:f-fe:,*WU~~:B9jff1JlI • ~if:l1!l~$~~~_~fl~~~.~B9&~~~~~·§~~~~~~~~~W~.~
~~&I!!o
(::)tia:~~~~.~
ffitia:,*~~~~~~~*(~2)m~tia:~~~~.Z~~~~~(
TB PES) • T BP ES = {321 = 0.22933 0 ~7f- t - 1Wlti a:'*~.ft~~1J(i§J:ill %. mt Wltia:~~~~:S:~{ijff1JlI 0.23 % 0 J!t~WlWfe:~m~1j1JlII
%' ti~'*~~IltI:~jff1JlI~0.56 % • I3D {321 = 0.55721 ,m7f-tiif,*~~m:l:
flWlWil}~mIU81J1IB9~~&~~* 0
(.=.)1Jt~il!lIM~1*1lc ( price flexibility coefficient)
I3Dtia:4:~~~:I:'~D ,*~~m;l:_~Am3tmm~~tia:,*~~~~i§
B9~. 0 ffi~3 ti~~~~1!~~&r!~7JlU~~* • m~~zp.:f;$}~Atiif'*~1[
~~~.z~~il!lm~1*Ilc~ - 0.2al07 , zp.:f;$}~A~D ~~,"~~i&bl:Z1J(i§
il!lm1*llc~ 0.05095 ' zp.:f;$}~A m3tmm~Z~~il!lli~1*Ilc~ 0.49450 0 ~
J!tmHUDff:i11UI~i'J'flWit :1.'I'~D,*~~lE1It~~1'~m1j1J1I' t!O{flj*Wl.ED~~i$f:L1B1j1JlI' ~~tiiI
~~.1!~~m~J:~,§xt!OJ:~ti~4:~~~.~&~~~z••m~,w~ D~~jff1J1I1r%!(;'*~tJ1J.B97f-fi~*( de mon st r a t icn effect) , 3<.f!iI~A
#1I:tJ1J.~.B9tia:,*~ , ~~ti a:~~tI)j(1j1JlI , ilatia:,*~~~~~J:~
, ill~ J:t1IlmJ!lg~f!iI tia:,*~~~..~A%J!IbB9~"; (2) 'I"zp.:f;$}~ A m3t m PJf~_tia:~~'"~~A%:I:~~1j~I%.,m~~tia:,*~~~1J(~J:~,m.
~ti~~~~~~~~m~.~Z&~~*o
(f!!I)ffft~ ,..1*
~D~~_~~~~tia:'*~B9~ft~offi~3m~~~D~~zp.:f;$}~0fi
jlJ~.~_INI&ZfOl!il:g 1 %11;1. ~~ti~,*~.1!~~l'l!il:~ 0.44 % ' rm~
~J:~m~l'~ 1%. ' tia:'*~.tt.~~l'~~ 1.16 % ' m7f-~~~tiiI4:~~ffft~J!l~*·~~~A~II:tJ1J.~MB9~~,rm~D~~*~~~~~
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26. Crom, Rand W. Maki, "Adjusting Dynamic Models to improve Their Predic
tive Ability", J.F.E., Nov. 1965, Vol. 44, pp. 963-972.
27.Faris, J. Edwin, "Analytical Technigues Used in Determining the Optimum
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31Maki, Willer R, "Decomposition of the Beef and Pork Cycle", J.F.E. Aug.
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37. Rucker, Randal R., Oscar R. Burt, and Teffery T. La-France, "An Econo
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( 23 )
- 70-
4(!"Smith, Blair J., "Dynamic Programming of the Dairy Cow Replacement
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( 24 )
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- 74-
A Dynamic Analysis of Beef Demand and Supply in Taiwan
Biing-Wen Hwang *
Sununary
The objective of this study was to analyze the dynamic relationship ofbeef demand and supply. The analysis of demand, supply and price relationshipfor beef sector used the time-series data from 1965 to 1984. A recursive econometric model of beef demand and supply with four equations was establishedafter the above analysis. This econometric model appropriately demonstratedthe economic phenomena of beef demand and supply as for the model validationand simulation.
* A Graduate of Research Institute of Agriculture Economics, National ChungHsing University, Taichung, Taiwan, R.O.C.
( 28 )