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    URBAN PAPER SERIES 2014

    CONNECTING THE DOTS FOR URBAN REVITALIZATION

    LESSONS FROM DORTMUND, GERMANY

    ALAN MALLACH

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    2014 Te German Marshall Fund o the United States. All rights reserved.

    No part o this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any orm or by any means without permission in writing

    rom the German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF). Please direct inquiries to:

    Te German Marshall Fund o the United States

    1744 R Street, NW

    Washington, DC 20009

    1 202 683 2650

    F 1 202 265 1662

    E [email protected]

    Tis publication can be downloaded or ree at www.gmus.org/publications.

    GMF Paper Series

    Te GMF Paper Series presents research on a variety o transatlantic topics by staff, ellows, and partners o the German

    Marshall Fund o the United States. Te views expressed here are those o the author and do not necessarily represent the

    views o GMF. Comments rom readers are welcome; reply to the mailing address above or by e-mail to [email protected].

    About GMF

    Te German Marshall Fund o the United States(GMF) strengthens transatlantic cooperation on regional, national, andglobal challenges and opportunities in the spirit o the Marshall Plan. GMF does this by supporting individuals and institu-

    tions working in the transatlantic sphere, by convening leaders and members o the policy and business communities,

    by contributing research and analysis on transatlantic topics, and by providing exchange opportunities to oster renewed

    commitment to the transatlantic relationship. In addition, GMF supports a number o initiatives to strengthen democra-

    cies. Founded in 1972 as a non-partisan, non-profit organization through a gif rom Germany as a permanent memorial to

    Marshall Plan assistance, GMF maintains a strong presence on both sides o the Atlantic. In addition to its headquarters in

    Washington, DC, GMF has offices in Berlin, Paris, Brussels, Belgrade, Ankara, Bucharest, Warsaw, and unis. GMF also has

    smaller representations in Bratislava, urin, and Stockholm.

    On the cover: Dortmund, Germany, skyline. Alissa Akins

    http://www.gmfus.org/publicationshttp://www.gmfus.org/http://www.gmfus.org/http://www.gmfus.org/publications
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    C D U R

    L D, G

    U P P S

    J

    Alan Mallach1

    1 Alan Mallach is a senior non-resident fellow for the German Marshall Fund of the United States. In that role, he supportsGMFs Cities in Transition Initiative. This publication is part of the Cities in Transition Initiative, a three-year projectdesigned to build a sustained network of leading policymakers and practitioners in five older industrial U.S. cities: Detroitand Flint, Michigan; Cleveland and Youngstown, Ohio; and the greater Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania region. The initiative isgenerously supported by the Surdna Foundation and the Kresge Foundation.

    Connecting the Dots: Defining Urban Regeneration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

    Economic Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

    Physical Transformation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

    Dortmund Today: How Extensive has the Transformation Been? . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

    Future Challenges: Implications for U.S. Cities in Transition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

    References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

    http://-/?-http://-/?-
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    C D U R 1

    C D:

    D U R1

    This case study grows out of the Cities in Tran-sition initiative of the German Marshall Fund

    of the United States, through which close to

    50 key planners, policymakers, and practitioners in

    five United States older industrial cities Cleve-

    land, OH; Detroit, MI; Flint, MI; Pittsburgh, PA;

    and Youngstown, OH participated in a sustained

    knowledge transfer effort from 2010 through 2012

    through site visits and conversations with coun-

    terparts in a number of European cities, including

    Manchester, U.K.; Barcelona, Spain; and Leipzig

    and Dortmund, Germany. The focus of the CIT

    initiative was not only to provide the U.S. practi-tioners with the opportunity to learn about and

    share specific projects and strategies, but to begin

    thinking more holistically about the larger issues

    associated with urban regeneration that they were

    confronting in their cities.

    Each of the three years of the CIT initiative focused

    on a different part of the urban puzzle: the first

    year on land use and redevelopment, the second

    on economic development, and the third on the

    alignment between workforce development and

    economic development. The phrase connecting

    the dots was used as a shorthand for the process of

    integrating the learning from the three years, which

    was the focus of the concluding workshop of the

    CIT initiative held in May 2013 in Detroit. Roughly

    two-thirds of the U.S. practitioners who had been

    involved in some part of the initiative were present

    at that workshop.

    The threshold issue in the workshop and for

    thinking about regeneration in general is to

    adequately define urban regeneration. In the next

    few pages, I will offer a framework for an integrated

    way of thinking about urban regeneration. I willthen explain why a case study of Dortmund offers

    both a useful way of applying that framework and

    valuable lessons for the many United States cities

    that it so closely resembles in important respects.

    What Urban Regeneration is Not

    Before discussing what urban regeneration is, it

    is useful to address briefly what it is not. It is not

    megaprojects, the so-called Bilbao effect notwith-

    standing; it is not catalytic events and it is not the

    statistical change reflected in a reversal of a popula-

    tion decline trend.

    Some facilities and events mayfurtherregeneration,

    and a reversal of population loss may be evidence

    of regeneration, but it also may not. One of the

    United States most distressed smaller industrial

    cities, Reading, Pennsylvania, has seen its long-

    term population decline dramatically reversed since

    the 1990s, and yet is poorer and struggling harder

    than ever (Mallach 2012). A recent study found no

    clear relationship at the metropolitan level between

    population growth and GDP growth (Martin Pros-

    perity Institute 2013).

    An oft-cited example of an event heralded as a cata-

    lyst of change was the IRA bombing of downtown

    Manchester in northern England in June 1996. The

    bomb, which destroyed or severely damaged over

    1 million square feet of retail and office space, trig-

    gered a rapid response from the citys political andcivic leadership. Planning for reconstruction was

    underway before the end of the year, and by 2000,

    the entire area had been rebuilt, in turn spurring

    extensive redevelopment in surrounding areas.

    While Manchester was already showing important

    signs of change, there is little doubt that the recon-

    struction helped spark additional regeneration.

    Manchesters effective response to the bombing was

    no accident. For more than a decade, city govern-

    ment had been building its capacity and its part-

    nerships with non-governmental entities, withoutwhich they could not have responded as effectively

    to the challenge of reconstruction. That sustained

    process, and not the bombing, was the essential

    precondition for change, which gives the lie to

    Chicago Mayor Rahm Emmanuels famous but

    erroneous dictum, you never want a crisis to go to

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    T G M F U S2

    waste. Unless the capacity to respond effectively tothe crisis is already present, the crisis will inevitably

    go to waste in whole or large part. Youngstowns

    black Monday was as dramatic a crisis as the

    Manchester bombing, yet prompted no meaningful

    change.1While factors outside the citys control

    were also involved, Youngstown lacked the leader-

    ship, partnerships, resources, or technical sophisti-

    cation to translate the crisis into change.

    It is not the catalytic event that triggers change. The

    ability to capitalize on a crisis or a catalytic event

    is a function of the capacity and leadership already

    in place. The same is true of major facilities such ascasinos, convention centers, and arenas, or for that

    matter, the Guggenheim Museum in Bilbao.2Only

    to the extent that they are integrated into a larger

    strategy, which leverages whatever effects they may

    bring to bear, can they contribute meaningfully to a

    citys regeneration.

    Defining Urban Regeneration

    What, then, is urban regeneration? There is no

    generally accepted definition. The term is used in

    the literature in ways that vary from narrowly phys-

    ical definitions such as slum clearance, to broader

    holistic ones that embrace societal indicators. Simi-

    larly, it is sometimes used to describe a process, as

    in one paper that defines urban regeneration as a

    process to improve the economical, physical, social,

    and environmental condition of an area (Mehta

    2008), or as outcomes. While the process by which

    change takes place is of critical importance, the

    1 On Monday, September 19, 1977, the Youngstown Sheet &Tube Company announced that it would be closing two of itsarea locations, the beginning of a decades-long out-migration of

    steel jobs and resulting economic crisis.2 Writers who claim that the Guggenheim Museum turnedaround Bilbao fail to recognize the extent to which thatmuseum was only one part of a much larger integrated revital-ization strategy; an example appears in an otherwise thoughtfulbook by Bell and de-Shalit (2011, p3), who write Frank Gehrysspectacular museum in Bilbao almost single-handedly changedthe Spanish city from a declining industrial center into a meccafor tourism. For a more nuanced perspective, see Plger (2012).

    outcomes ultimately determine whether the processhas been productive and whether the community

    (however defined) is better off for it. As an over-

    arching definition, I would therefore propose that

    urban regeneration be defined as change to a citys

    social, economic, and physical conditions in a way

    that is both equitable and sustainable. That, in turn,

    suggests that regeneration should encompass three

    distinct pillars:

    Building a new export-oriented economic

    base in the city to replace the lost historic

    manufacturing economy;

    Changing the quality of life and the physical

    environment of the city and its neighborhoods

    to make them desirable to potential users, and

    competitive in the regional marketplace; and

    Improving the social and economic conditions

    of the people who live in the city, ensuring that

    they benefit from changes to the citys economic

    and physical environment and compete

    effectively in the regional marketplace.

    These three pillars should be seen not as separate

    goals, but as a package in which all three are needed

    to bring about sustainable urban vitality. Moreover,

    for a city to succeed in any or all of them it must

    recognize the extent to which it is integrated into

    the regional economy and the labor and housing

    markets, and focus on competing successfully

    within that regional market by identifying sectors

    where the city has an identifiable comparative

    advantage.

    This last point is worth stressing. Autarchy is

    not a recipe for economic success in todays

    world, particularly when applied to cities that aredisproportionately poor and lacking in resources

    compared to their region or the nation as a whole.

    While import substitution activities, such as efforts

    to retain resident purchasing power by creating

    local retail hubs, mayhave some value, in the

    http://gmfus.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Linda_Fowler_Framing_Paper.pdfhttp://gmfus.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Linda_Fowler_Framing_Paper.pdfhttp://gmfus.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Linda_Fowler_Framing_Paper.pdfhttp://gmfus.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Linda_Fowler_Framing_Paper.pdfhttp://gmfus.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Linda_Fowler_Framing_Paper.pdfhttp://gmfus.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Linda_Fowler_Framing_Paper.pdfhttp://gmfus.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Linda_Fowler_Framing_Paper.pdfhttp://gmfus.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Linda_Fowler_Framing_Paper.pdf
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    C D U R 3

    final analysis they are likely, even if successful, to

    have more impact on residents quality of life than

    on the citys economic strength. As an unnamed

    pundit has been quoted as saying, You cant have

    an economy by taking in each others laundry.

    (Browne, 1986; Chicago Tribune, 2010)

    Returning to GMFs Cities in Transition initia-tive, the three elements that formed that initiative

    can been seen as three ways for operationalizing

    an integrated approach to urban regeneration; as

    Figure 1 shows, those three elements cut across

    the three pillars. While each contributes toward

    the overall goal of sustainable regeneration, that

    contribution is not automatic. It is easy enough for

    land use planners, economic developers, or work-

    force specialists to work in silos. Ensuring that they

    further an integrated body of goals, and that success

    in one area does not lead to unanticipated negative

    outcomes in another, happens only through inten-

    tional and integrated strategies.

    Implicit in improving the social and economic

    conditions of the citys residents is the larger ques-

    tion of social inclusion and equity. Any effort to

    formulate a strategy for success needs to explicitly

    address the complex issue of justice as it cuts across

    all of the citys dimensions. The concept of the just

    city can be encapsulated in a triple proposition:

    that the city furthers democracy, diversity, and

    equity (Fainstein, 2010). As will be discussed at the

    end of this paper, this remains perhaps the single

    greatest challenge facing cities in transition.

    Why Dortmund?

    Although these issues can be explored further as

    general propositions, it is also useful to look at

    how they play out in a real-life context through a

    case study. In that respect, and in the context of the

    CIT initiative, Dortmund offers some significant

    advantages.3Dortmunds historic dependence on

    heavy industry resembles many of the U.S. cities

    that participated in the initiative more than most

    of the other European cities that were the subject

    of site visits, and shares more of their challenges.Moreover, one can point to and evaluate system-

    3 See GMF website for further information on the third-yearCIT study tour to Dortmund, particularly the framing paper byLinda Fowler, available at http://gmfus.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Linda_Fowler_Framing_Paper.pdf.

    Improving Social and

    Economic Conditions

    Competitive Local

    Neighborhoods

    Export-Oriented

    Economic Base

    Land Use Improving the quality of lifefor the people who live in thecity by addressing physical

    environment and problemproperties

    Making neighborhoods compet-itive by addressing physicalenvironment, problem proper-ties and quality of life

    Making city a successfuleconomic center and destina-tion through property reuseand building on physical andhistoric assets

    Economic

    Development

    Building job and businessopportunities in a strongerlocal economy based onregional strengths

    A stronger local and regionaleconomy increases the marketbase and level of investment incity neighborhoods

    An effective economic devel-opment strategy is neededto build new and sustainableeconomic engines

    Workforce

    Development

    Providing city residents withthe job skills and educationalattainment they need in orderto compete effectively in theregional economy

    Greater resident income andassets foster increased demandfor and investment in cityneighborhoods

    More skilled workforcebecomes major assets increating new economicengines

    Figure 1: Cross-Cutting Relationships Between City Initiatives and Urban Regeneration Pillars

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    T G M F U S4

    atic strategies that were pursued over an extendedperiod of time in all of the areas that were high-

    lighted above in the discussion of urban regenera-

    tion. Thus, it is possible to offer some assessment

    of the outcomes of those strategies and identify key

    remaining challenges. As will be seen, its achieve-

    ments and challenges offer meaningful lessons for

    similar U.S. cities.

    The case study presented here should be seen as a

    sketch, rather than a full-dress study, of Dortmund

    and its strategies for change. It does not claim to

    be an in-depth analysis, but reflects insights and

    impressions from meetings with key participants andobservers of Dortmunds revitalization and devel-

    opment activities and review of English-language

    papers and articles.4Rather than provide detailed

    4 To my regret, my command of German is not adequate toallow me to access the considerable body of relevant litera-ture in German, including by way of example a recent volumeedited by Hermann Bmer and his colleages at the DortmundTechnical University, Stadtentwicklung in Dortmund seit 1945[Urban Development in Dortmund since 1945] published by TUDortmund in 2010.

    descriptions of those activities, it sketches thembriefly in order to offer a framework for the discus-

    sion of issues and challenges and identify experi-

    ences and lessons that can be useful for U.S. cities.5

    5 As a result, it is likely to be subject to both errors of fact anderrors of interpretation, for both of which I take full respon-sibility. A number of errors of fact and interpretation thatappeared in the initial draft of this paper have been correctedthanks to the gracious assistance of Prof. Thorsten Wiechmannof TU Dortmund, who read and reviewed the initial draft.

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    C D U R 5

    Dortmund is located in the southeastern partof Germanys Ruhr Valley, historically one

    of the most heavily industrialized regions

    in the world. An important city during the Middle

    Ages, Dortmunds modern history begins with

    Germanys industrialization during the second half

    of the 19thcentury. During that period, Dort-

    mund became a major center for coal-mining and

    steel-making.6Between 1850 and 1900, its popula-

    tion increased 11 times, to over 150,000 (Jackson

    1997); by 1930, the citys population had risen to

    over 500,000. Today, Dortmunds population totals

    almost 600,000.Dortmund was badly damaged by Allied bombing

    during World War II; as Crouch and Herson (2010)

    point out, [British] observers can find it difficult

    to comprehend the full extent of destruction and

    disruption that afflicted Dortmund and other

    German cities at the end of World War II. Most

    of the inner part of the city was reduced to rubble,

    while the citys population dropped to 300,000.

    Dortmunds recovery from the destruction of World

    War II was unusually rapid, even by comparison

    to other German cities. The demands of German

    reconstruction, coupled with the rapid growth of the

    German economy during the 1960s, fueled demand

    for Dortmunds principal products, and coal and

    steel production were both ramped up substantially

    during the 1950s and 1960s. Population and employ-

    ment both grew back rapidly; coal-mining employ-

    6 As well as beer-making, which although far less significant as asource of employment or income, was an important part of thecitys image in the rest of Germany. In contrast to coal, which hascompletely disappeared, and steel, which is limited to small-scale processing facilities, one major brewery still operates inDortmund today.

    ment peaked in 1956 at 40,000, while steel employ-ment peaked in 1961 at 38,000. During this period,

    the citys population exceeded 600,000 for the first

    time (Crouch and Herson 2010). The city center was

    rapidly rebuilt, but as Kunzmann and his colleagues

    point out, The speedy reconstruction of the inner

    city in the 1950s is a heavy legacy and to a great

    extent it is responsible for the poor aesthetical quality

    of the city, a fact that contributes to the mediocre

    urban image of Dortmund and to its low profile as

    a target for urban tourism (Kunzmann, Tata and

    Buchholtz 2003).

    The combination of rapid physical reconstructioncoupled with renewed post-war dependence on

    coal and steel as the economic base put off serious

    consideration of structural change for a number of

    decades; as late as 1976, manufacturing jobs still

    represented one-third of the citys employment

    base. By the 1980s, structural change was evident.

    Coal mining had been declining since the 1970s,

    and the last mine in the city closed in 1987. Steel

    production peaked in 1974, and by the 1980s,

    the industry was in crisis. Dortmunds popula-

    tion slowly tailed off after 1981, and it has since

    remained below 600,000. The citys population

    appears stable today; 2011 data indicates that while

    deaths exceeded births, in-migration exceeded

    out-migration, resulting in a net positive balance of

    roughly 500 people.7

    7 This may be misleading; the just-released results of the 2011German census, the first in many decades, showed that thenational population tracking system had over-estimated thenations population by 1.5 million, largely, it appears, because ofsystemic under-reporting of out-migration by foreign nationals.

    B

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    T G M F U S6

    Although it would be unfair to suggest that noplanning for a different economic future for

    the city took place until the 1980s, the strat-

    egies for economic development in place today did

    not emerge until the 1980s and 1990s. The Technol-

    ogie Zentrum Dortmund [TZDO], or Dortmund

    Technology Center, was established in 1985, and

    the Dortmund-Project was established in 2000.8

    These two closely linked entities have driven the

    citys economic development strategy for the past

    decade, and are likely to continue doing so in the

    future. This section will provide short descriptions

    of the activities of these two entities and brieflydiscuss the citys use of culture as an economic

    development strategy.

    The Dortmund-Project

    The Dortmund-Project is responsible for designing

    and implementing economic development strate-

    gies for the city.9Though it operates within the

    citys economic development department, it is

    accountable to the mayor and to a public-private

    advisory board. It was established in 1999, when

    the initial strategy was designed under the aegis

    of a partnership between the steel conglomerateThyssenKrupp AG, the metalworkers union IG

    Metall, and the city of Dortmund. This partnership

    emerged from the negotiations that took place as a

    result of ThyssenKrupps decision to close the West-

    fallenhtte, the last steel mill in Dortmund (Muhge

    et al 2006).10The strategy was put in place for an

    initial ten-year period through 2010, and in the last

    few years it has been restructured to some extent.

    8 This followed the expansion and conversion of the citys

    economic development office into an independent public corpo-ration in 1997.

    9 According to one informant, the Dortmund economic develop-ment department is the largest municipal economic develop-ment office in Germany.

    10 ThyssenKrupp paid to hire McKinsey & Company as theprincipal consultants charged with designing the strategy, withsupport from staff seconded from ThyssenKrupp.

    The Dortmund-Project is designed to be a compre-hensive model of economic development, orga-

    nized around a series of key technology clusters

    integrated around four central elements:

    Area and infrastructure: creating the physical

    as well as organizational infrastructure to

    accommodate new industry in the key clusters;

    Innovative environment: fostering

    entrepreneurship and innovation through

    business start-ups;

    People and skills: increasing the pool ofworkers with the skills to participate in the

    emerging technology centers and reducing

    unemployment; and

    Capital: increasing access to both debt and

    venture capital.

    Four key clusters were identified as the focus of the

    Dortmund-Project:11

    Information technology

    Micro- or nanotechnology

    Logistics

    Biotechnology

    In partnership with TZDO and TU Dortmund,

    the Dortmund-Project attempts to create distinct

    comprehensive support systems for both start-ups

    and existing businesses in these four sectors. This

    system is based principally on the competence

    centers comparable to U.S. incubators admin-

    istered by TZDO and cluster staff within Dortmund-

    Project. Cluster staff are recruited from the industrysector itself, rather than being economic develop-

    ment or training generalists assigned to that sector.

    11 Dortmund-Project provides support services in a numberof areas that are not formally designated as clusters, but thatare integrated into their strategy, including the creative sector,broadly defined, and health care. One such area, productiontechnology, also has a competence center in TZDO.

    E S

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    C D U R 7

    In addition to direct support facilities and infra-structure, and its role as the developer of the

    Phoenix Project and other major projects, the

    Dortmund-Project sees two of its key tasks as

    building a climate of entrepreneurship and linking

    the workforce to emerging business and job oppor-

    tunities. The principal vehicle for the former is the

    Start2Grow competition, a high-profile business

    plan competition, which draws between 200 and

    300 competitors each year. With respect to work-

    force development, since Germany already has a

    highly developed system for vocational training,12

    the principal role that the Dortmund-Project playsis to provide information, making students in the

    local schools aware of the technology sectors and

    the opportunities they offer, connecting students

    and companies through internships, and encour-

    aging training providers to orient their activities

    more closely with emerging industry needs.

    Since 2009, the Dortmund-Project has modified

    their strategy to focus more on what they call cross-

    clustering; that is, identifying emerging markets

    where clusters can be linked to respond to the

    needs of those markets. Examples of sectors include

    simulation, mobility, or energy efficiency. Specific

    product-oriented targets are shown in Figure 2. It

    may be more accurate to think of the cross-clustering

    approach as a refinement of the initial cluster

    strategy, rather than a departure from it.

    TechnologieZentrum Dortmund

    The TZDO is the principal vehicle through which

    facilities and infrastructure for the target clusters

    12 The system, which is based on a combination of apprentice-ships and in-school education related to the field of the appren-ticeship and which is administered by the two principal businesschambers (Kammers), is generally held to be effective andwidely admired elsewhere. One informant suggested, however,that it is not as responsive to the needs of emerging technolo-gies as it should be. The two chambers are the Industrie- undHandelskammer (Chamber of Business and Industry) and theHandwerkskammer (Chamber of Crafts). While the former isoften translated as Chamber of Commerce their activities andtheir role in German society are substantially different fromthose of U.S. Chambers of Commerce.

    are provided. It was established in 1985, on landowned by the city and TU Dortmund immediately

    to the west of the university, reflecting its goal of

    leveraging the growing talent pool represented

    by the university.13The TZDO is a public-private

    venture, led by the city of Dortmund (the largest

    shareholder), the two Chambers, a consortium of

    local lenders, and the citys two principal institu-

    tions of higher education, TU Dortmund and the

    Fachhochschule [University of Applied Sciences].14

    The TZDO offers 10 different competence centers.

    They are mostly located at the main facility near

    the university, but the logistics center is located atthe port, while the micro-technology and produc-

    tion technology centers are located in the flagship

    Phoenix West development in the southern part of

    the city. The facilities range from providing basic

    start-up office space and services, such as the B1st

    Software-Factory for start-up software designers, to

    facilities with extensive lab equipment for biotech-

    nology, and even prototype manufacturing capa-

    bility for micro-technology. Altogether, TZDOs

    facilities contain roughly 1.3 million square feet

    (120,000 square meters) of space.15

    In order to encourage growing firms to stay in

    Dortmund after they have outgrown the compe-

    tence centers, TZDO created a development arm,

    TZ Investment Co., to build facilities for such

    firms, formerly on land near the university and

    increasingly on the TZDO land in the Phoenix

    development. All in all, the TZDO estimates that

    it has spun off some 520 firms, of which 280 are

    still located in Dortmund. Those 280 firms employ

    8,500 workers.

    13 TU Dortmund was only established in 1968.

    14 The Fachhochschule principally offers degrees in engineeringfields and computer science, although it also has programs ineconomics, social sciences, architecture, and design. Its enroll-ment is approximately 11,000, or somewhat less than half thesize of TU Dortmund.

    15 The TZDO is also one of the three partners in the Kitz.DOproject, a hands-on technology learning center for children.

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    T G M F U S8

    The Regional Connection: A Short Note

    While the greater part of Dortmunds economic

    strategy appears to be driven by the local actors andis designed to focus specifically on the city as such,

    it would be misleading to suggest that it is not part

    of a larger regional strategy to which it contributes

    and from which it benefits. Although the breadth

    of the citys regional relationships and the extent

    of regional activity in the Ruhr Valley is a major

    subject well beyond the scope of this case study, it is

    too important not to address at all.

    Under the rubric of Metropoleruhr, a networkof regional organizations and agencies exists to

    further regional strategies throughout the Ruhr

    Valley. The Regionalverband Ruhr [Ruhr Regional

    AssociationRVR] provides overall coordination

    of municipal and regional planning, and manages

    important regional assets such as the Industrial

    Figure 2: Cross Clustering Around Markets

    None Proposed Potential Actual

    SOURCE: Adapted by author from presentation by Dr. Claudia Keides, Dortmund-Project

    Market

    Simulation Mobility Energy Resources

    Cluster

    BiotechnologyPharmacy studies Lab on a chip Biogass/mass

    Industrial biotech-nology

    Business servicesBusiness models

    Business models fore-mobility

    Energy contracting Efficiency contracting

    CreativeSerious games Mobile apps Sustainabilityawareness-raising Green marketing

    Health careMedical imaging

    Ambient assistedliving

    Hospital engi-neering

    Hospital engineering

    Information

    technology CAD Mobile apps Smart grids Rapid prototyping

    Logistics Supply chain simu-lation

    e-mobility Green logistics RFID control

    Micro-technologyMicro-sensors RFID transponders Energy harvesting New surfaces

    Production

    technology Production processsimulation

    Mobile maintenanceIntelligent produc-

    tion buildingsNew materials

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    C D U R 9

    Heritage and the Emscher Landscape Park. Withrespect to economic development, a regional quasi-

    governmental corporation, the Wirtschaftsfrde-

    rung [economic development] metropole Ruhr

    GmbH, supports local efforts through a wide range

    of planning, service provision, and promotion

    activities. Regional transportation systems are coor-

    dinated through the Verkehrsverbund Rhein-Ruhr,

    while scientific and research coordination is

    furthered through the Universittsallianz [Alliance

    of Universities] Metropole Ruhr, an alliance of the

    regions three major universities, including TU

    Dortmund, established in 2007.At the state level, the Land of North Rhine-

    Westphalia has adopted a strong cluster-oriented

    economic development policy under the title of

    ExcellenceNRW, grounded in a strategy of targeted

    support to industrial clusters. The states efforts are

    designed to support and foster public, privat,e and

    institutional co-operation within 16 industries and

    technology fields selected on the basis of growth

    potential and state-level competitive advantage. The

    presence of this policy, which is highly congruent

    with the Dortmund-Project, and the level of state-

    level support that it provides have both enhanced

    the ability of Dortmund to pursue its local cluster-

    based economic development strategy.

    While it is hard to quantify, the value of being part

    of an extensive and highly sophisticated network

    of regional entities is likely to be considerable. The

    Ruhr Valley was designated the European City of

    Culture for 2010, and a regional strategy for maxi-

    mizing the cultural assets of the entire region was

    developed, in which Dortmund actively partici-

    pated and from which it benefited. Conversely, the

    Start2Grow competitions initiated in Dortmund,while initially limited to Dortmund-based entities,

    have since taken on a regional focus, while still

    being administered locally.

    Other regional dimensions are even harder to

    quantify but are just as important. The regional

    focus on industrial heritage [industriekultur] hasbecome a major element of tourist and visitor

    promotion, and is a culturally unifying theme for

    people and projects in the entire region. This can

    be seen in the extent to which the visual symbol of

    the regions industrial heritage, the distinctively-

    shaped mineshaft tower of the Zollverein colliery

    in Essen (Figure 3), sometimes referred to as the

    Eiffel Tower of the Ruhr, has started to be absorbed

    into the regions popular visual vocabulary in such

    areas as store signs, company logos, and refrigerator

    magnets.

    While Dortmunders have a strong sense of localidentity, their sense of being part of the Ruhr

    region and sharing in the elusive quality referred

    to as Ruhrpott may be even stronger. While their

    continued economic rivalry with Essen is very real,

    it is the rivalry of competitive colleagues.

    Cultural and Creative Strategy

    Although the technology-driven model of the

    Dortmund-Project and TZDO represents the domi-

    nant economic development model in Dortmund,

    Figure 3: The Zollverein Tower In Essen

    Source: Thomas Wolf (Wikimedia Commons)

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    T G M F U S10

    ment of the Rheinischestrasse Quarter south of the

    Dortmunder U as an arts district. Given that no

    development of this type exists in Dortmund, the

    citys goal is not only to accommodate artists desire

    for a distinctive environment, but, as the director

    of the Kulturbro commented, to make the city

    interesting.

    Dortmund cultural authorities see a strong recip-

    rocal relationship between the citys push for a

    high-technology economy and the arts. A key part

    of the theory underlying the citys support for the

    arts is that in so doing, they can create the type of

    environment that will enable the city to retain a

    healthy percentage of the large pool of arts-relatedgraduates from the citys universities, and make the

    city attractive to the creative class as Florida broadly

    defines it, thus serving the larger goal of retaining

    and increasing the technology sector.

    Figure 4: The Dortmunder U

    Source: Mathias Bigge (Wikimedia Commons)

    the city is also strongly focused on cultural andartistic development, and has recently pursued a

    Richard Florida-esque approach to identifying and

    promoting what can loosely be characterized as the

    creative sectors of the local economy.16

    The Kulturbetreib (department of cultural services)

    is organized as an Eigenbetreib, or semi-autono-

    mous agency of the city of Dortmund. The depart-

    ment includes the bureau of culture (Kulturbro) as

    well as a number of facilities and programs. These

    include the Dortmunder U, described below, and

    the Jedem Kind ein Instrument [Every child an

    instrument] music school, which enrolls roughly8,000 children in its programs. The bureau of

    culture tries to develop facilities and venues for

    artists and to integrate culture and the arts into the

    citys life. Bureau staff are proud of the fact that

    they support a wide range of cultural and artistic

    activities, including popular arts and new media,

    in contrast to the high art focus that still remains

    strong in much of German official cultural life.

    The citys cultural flagship project is the Dort-

    munder U, the conversion of a historic brewery at

    the edge of the city center into an arts and mediacomplex (Figure 4). The project, which was the

    citys principal contribution to the designation of

    the Ruhr as the European Capital of Culture in

    2010, contains a wide range of facilities to support

    artists, including museums and gallery space,

    hands-on workshops focusing on film and new

    media, classrooms, and performance spaces. Films

    are projected on its windows and the illuminated

    U atop the tower a local landmark since initially

    built in 1927 is visible from much of the city. The

    Dortmunder U is only one of many arts-related

    facilities that have been developed by or with theassistance of the city, including jazz clubs, media

    centers, cultural centers, and artists residence/work

    spaces. The city is currently exploring the develop-

    16 Richard Florida identified that a key pillar of a citys economicgrowth is the ability to attract the creative class and success-fully integrate them into a local knowledge economy.

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    C D U R 11

    While such a strategy may show results as long aspublic money is available to support it, it may have

    difficulty becoming self-sustaining. Dortmund

    suffers from some important constraints in that

    respect; as the same individual noted, it is still

    a relatively low-income city, with relatively few

    affluent, educated households, yielding only a small

    pool of serious arts consumers. As a result, artists

    who stay in Dortmund have much more difficulty

    making a living from their art than they might in a

    city with a stronger, better-established art market.

    Dortmund may be a good place for an artist to startout, but may not be a good place for an artist to

    become establish.

    The city has also begun to promote the creative

    sector more broadly under the rubric of Dortmund.

    Kreativ, including within not only traditional arts,

    but sectors such as advertising, software design, and

    media. It is not clear, however, to what extent this

    has been integrated with other parts of the citys

    economic development strategy.

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    T G M F U S12

    character. Most residential areas are made up ofmodest and generally well-maintained small multi-

    family buildings, as shown in Figure 5.

    The Nordstadt, the neighborhood immediately

    north of the city center generally considered the

    most distressed neighborhood in Dortmund, looks

    little different from other parts of the city except in

    subtle signs of graffiti and litter. The city is under-

    taking revitalization projects in a number of areas,

    including the Nordstadt, Hrde, and the Rheinisch-

    estrasse quarter.

    A drawback of the city from the standpoint ofeconomic development is the reality that while

    not unattractive, Dortmund lacks variety. While

    the overall standard of housing is adequate, little

    Figure 5: Typical Housing Types In Dortmund

    Near the city center

    A more outlying neighborhood

    SOURCE: Google Earth

    In the course of recognizing the need foreconomic transformation beginning in the 1980s,

    city officials also recognized the need for physical

    transformation, particularly of the city center,

    which had been rebuilt largely from scratch after

    World War II. Although the buildings built during

    the 1950s and 1960s are at best undistinguished,

    they have two virtues. For the most part, the build-

    ings form continuous street walls, and few of them

    are more than five or six stories high. As a result,

    the city was able to extensively reconfigure the city

    center through urban design strategies. Since the

    adoption of the City-Konzept 2000 plan in 1988,the city center has seen a profound transformation,

    most visible in the network of interlocking attrac-

    tive public squares and pedestrian ways that has

    been created. A signature project to develop the

    main train station into a nearly 1 million square

    foot retail, entertainment, and services center was

    first proposed in 1997 but was abandoned in 2007

    when adequate financing did not materialize.

    For all its attractive public spaces, the city center

    continues to lack a distinctive character or a

    coherent hub, while the city as a whole has few

    notable buildings or monuments. Arguably the

    single most prominent building in the city, one that

    is well-known throughout Europe, is the Westfalen-

    stadion, the 80,000 seat stadium built in 1974 where

    Dortmunds famous Borussia football club plays.

    Two notable downtown development projects are

    the Philharmonic Hall and the glass atrium created

    to link the old and new city government offices.

    While both play a part in enhancing the quality of

    life in the city center, neither functions as a central

    organizing space.

    Dortmund is a spread out city by German standards,reflecting its origins in a process by which a large

    number of small, distinct villages and towns were

    consolidated into a single city. Much of the area

    between these former villages has been preserved

    in open space, and the city takes pride in its green

    P T

    4

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    C D U R 13

    is distinctive, and few neighborhoods can be saidto have a distinctive urban character of their own.

    Only a handful of the citys neighborhoods, such

    as the Gartenstadt Sd [Southern Garden City]

    roughly 2 kilometers east of the city center (Figure

    6), offer the larger flats or detached single-family

    houses (villas) that might draw or retain more

    affluent professionals or business people. Diversi-

    fying the housing stock to that end was an impor-

    tant driving force behind the residential dimension

    of the Phoenix project.

    The Phoenix project is the citys flagship redevelop-

    ment project (Figure 7). The project is actually twosites linked by a green corridor containing a total

    of 530 acres (214 hectares), divided by the center

    of Hrde, a town roughly 4 kilometers southeast of

    the city center, which was absorbed into the city of

    Dortmund early in the 20thcentury. The two sites

    were previously devoted to a single steel mill that

    closed in 2001.

    Site remediation and development has moved

    ahead steadily, and a great deal of redevelopment

    has taken place on both sites. Although much more

    remains to be done, what remains now is almost

    entirely a matter of building out development-ready

    parcels. Reflecting this, the interdepartmental

    Phoenix working group, which met almost weekly

    for the past decade as the project gradually moved

    forward, was dissolved in spring 2013.

    Figure 7: The Phoenix Project

    SOURCE: Stadt Dortmund / stegepartner

    Figure 6: The Gartenstadt Sd

    SOURCE: Google Earth

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    T G M F U S14

    Phoenix East has undergone the most dramatic

    change. In place of the steel mill, a 60 acre (24

    hectare) lake nearly 4,500 feet (1,370 meters) long

    has been created, surrounded by public open space

    and terraced banks, on which expensive single

    family houses are being constructed.17In the part

    of the site closest to the center of Hrde, higher

    density development is under way, principally

    apartments with ground floor retail and services,

    designed to connect with and reinforce the oldercenter. Ultimately, some 2,000 housing units are

    planned for the site. As of spring 2013, develop-

    ment of the areas along the northern and western

    banks of the lake was more than halfway to comple-

    17 According to one informant, prices for the houses run from700,000 and up.

    tion, while development of the southern bank wasslated to begin that year.

    In contrast to the area around the lake, Phoenix

    West is being developed to support the continuing

    growth of the citys technology sector, with a

    combination of TZDO facilities, including the

    micro-technology competence center, and sites

    marketed to or developed for technology-oriented

    firms, particularly those that have outgrown their

    space in the competence centers. In addition to new

    buildings, the western site contains a substantial

    number of historic industrial buildings that were

    preserved in the course of development, includingthe principal blast furnace of the old steel mill.

    Maintaining and finding appropriate reuses for

    these buildings, however, has become a difficult

    challenge for the city, which continues to hold them

    despite its desire to find private users for them.

    The Phoenix project is well on a path to success,

    and represents a significant achievement. Nonethe-

    less, the city still contains large numbers of vacant

    or underutilized brownfields sites, as well as rail-

    road yards, which await redevelopment.18Whether

    Dortmund will be able to mount future redevelop-ment initiatives on a comparable scale remains to

    be seen.

    18 According to Dortmund-Project staff, the city contains some1,500 acres (600 hectares), or over 2 square miles, of brownfieldssites.

    Figure 8: New Development on Phoenixsee

    SOURCE: Pelz (Wikimedia Commons)

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    C D U R 15

    In many respects, Dortmund can be seen as amodel for other cities from an economic devel-

    opment perspective. While they have pursued

    economic development goals since the 1980s, since

    the founding of the Dortmund-Project in 2000, the

    city has organized its economic development efforts

    around a coherent, well-defined strategic agenda

    with consistency and focus that are rare in the

    field of urban economic development, whether in

    Germany, the United States, or elsewhere. During

    these years, the city and its partners have made

    major investments in physical facilities such as the

    TZDO19

    and the Phoenix project, while buildinghuman capital and fostering start-up businesses and

    entrepreneurs.

    Dortmund has also shown a highly networked

    approach to its economic development strategy,

    with strong cooperation and integration between

    public and private entities. As one informant

    commented, in the 1990s, we were so far down,

    everybody agreed we had to work together. The

    networks include not only governmental partner-

    ships between the city and the land (state) of North

    Rhine-Westphalia, and between the city and the

    two Chambers, but also between those entities, the

    two principal universities, the citys financial insti-

    tutions, and others.

    The role of the universities, particularly TU Dort-

    mund, in the citys economic growth is a significant

    one. They represent a principal means by which

    the city gains a highly skilled workforce and a body

    of emerging innovators and entrepreneurs. This is

    very notable in the field of information technology,

    where the relationship between TU Dortmund

    and the TZDO is particularly close, and where the

    strength of that program was a major element inthe Dortmund-Project decision to make IT one

    of its major cluster targets. While no single strong

    leader from among the many institutions involved

    19 According to an informant, total public investment in theTZDO since its inception has been 160 million.

    was identified by informants, decisions appear to bemade and effective and strategic actions are taken

    with a strong level of consensus.

    It is important to note, however, that this is very

    much an elitenetwork. There appears to be little

    systematic effort at broader public participa-

    tion, while few non-governmental organizations

    (NGOs) appear to play a substantial role in the

    economic or physical planning process in the city.

    This appears to be true in many other German

    cities as well, although there are indications that it

    may be changing.20Without suggesting that such

    activities or organizations are a panacea, theirabsence may contribute to the difficulty the city

    is finding in addressing some of its more complex

    and, it appears, increasingly entrenched social and

    economic problems.

    With respect to employment, Dortmund has

    made a significant, but arguably still incomplete

    transition to a post-industrial economy. In 1976,

    Dortmund had 227,000 jobs eligible for social

    insurance,21of which approximately 75,000 were in

    the manufacturing sector; this number, however,

    already represents a decline from peak manufac-turing employment of the 1950s and 1960s. By

    2006, the total number of jobs had dropped to

    185,000, of which 25,000 were in the manufacturing

    sector. Thus, during that 30-year period, growth in

    other sectors replaced only a small percentage of

    the jobs lost in manufacturing.

    20 This also appears to be the case in Leipzig, as it appeared fromthe meetings and presentations during the first CIT study tour.While mechanisms for public participation exist in German lawand practice (Friesecke 2011), they do not appear to play a majorrole in decision-making in Dortmund, judging from informantsresponses to my questions. To be fair, it should be noted that

    the scope of the case study did not al low for examination of thecitys neighborhood-scale planning and redevelopment efforts. Itis also worth noting that in recent years, both national and stategovernments have placed greater emphasis on civic participa-tion, although the NGO infrastructure remains limited bycomparison to the United States.

    21 This figure, which reflects full-time wage employment, isthe most commonly used employment statistic in Germany. Itappears to represent about 70 percent of all workers.

    D T: H E

    T B5

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    T G M F U S16

    total job growth inrecent years. Even so,

    the total number of

    jobs in 2012 was still 10

    percent below the 1976

    level.

    While Figure 9 suggests

    that the growth in jobs

    has had some effect

    on the unemployment

    rate, unemployment in

    Dortmund has remained

    stubbornly high. At13.3 percent, it is nearly

    double the national

    unemployment rate,

    while the actual number

    of unemployed has

    remained unchanged

    from 2007 through the

    spring of 2013. Nearly

    half of the unemployed

    have been so for the

    long term,24continuously for one year or longer.

    While this is a very high percentage by United

    States standards,25it is close to the German nationa

    average, and does not appear to reflect any specific

    local conditions.

    The persistence of high unemployment in Dort-

    mund appears to be closely associated with the

    growing problem of concentrated poverty, which

    is in turn disproportionately associated with

    non-ethnic German and immigrant populations.

    This reflects the problems of social exclusion, and

    the potential for increasing ethnic and economic

    divergence in the city, something which may beexacerbated rather than reduced by the focus

    24 While high, this is well below the estimates made by someinformants.

    25 The percentage of long-term unemployed in the United Statesusing a much broader def inition namely, those unemployed27 weeks or longer was 37.6 percent in May 2013.

    Figure 9: Jobs in Dortmund 2000-2011

    SOURCE: Schulze and Ellwein (2012)

    This trend appears to have reversed significantly in

    recent years. While the target of 70,000 new jobs in

    ten years set by the Dortmund-Project in 2000 waspatently unrealistic and not achieved, some prog-

    ress has been made. Figure 9 shows the number of

    jobs eligible for social insurance in Dortmund, an

    increase of 18,500 jobs, or 10 percent, between 2006

    and 2011.22Technology-related23jobs, although

    making up only 9 percent of the citys total job base,

    represented 27 percent of the increase between

    2008 and 2012. Since these are heavily export-

    oriented jobs, their multiplier is likely to account

    for a significant percentage of the increase in other

    sectors. It appears not unreasonable to suggest that

    technology has driven half or more of the citys

    22 The curve of job decline and growth shown in Figure 9 closelyparallels national trends during this period.

    23 The category freiberufliche, wissenschaftliche, und tech-nische Dienstleistungen [free-lance, scientific, and technicalservices].

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    C D U R 17

    on technology-driven economic development,

    particularly if as appears to be the case the

    local labor market is not able to provide the special-

    ized workforce that this sector needs to sustain its

    growth.26The percentage of jobs in Dortmund held

    by commuters from outside the city has increasedfrom 38 percent in 2000 to nearly 44 percent in

    2012.27

    A similar issue is posed by the development of

    the Phoenix project and its potential impact on

    the social and demographic character of Hrde,

    one of the citys lowest income neighborhoods.

    Gentrification and the potential displacement of

    lower income Hrde residents would appear to be

    a highly probable outcome of the success of the

    26

    One informant reported that many of Dortmunds technologyfirms are importing workers with specialized skills from over-seas, particularly India and China.

    27 This is a considerably smaller commuter share than incomparable cities in the United States, and reflects both the lesspronounced long-distance commuting patterns of the Germanworkforce as well as the very large geographic area covered bythe city of Dortmund (280.4 square kilometers or 108.3 squaremiles.)

    Phoenix project. Indeed,it is hard to imagine

    circumstances under

    which significant

    change is notlikely to

    happen. The center of

    Hrde, in addition to

    providing the nearest

    shopping district, is

    the hub of the public

    transportation services

    that will be used by

    the residents of thePhoenix development,

    and, moreover, is an

    area that retains rather

    more of its Wilhelmine

    charm and walkability

    than most other parts of

    Dortmund (Figure 11).

    While significant evidence of gentrification has yet

    to emerge, the city has yet to respond to its poten-

    tial in the near future. As is true in many similar

    United States cities where overall property values

    and housing costs are low by national standards,

    the tension between addressing gentrification and

    the compelling goal of fostering stronger property

    values and a more diverse housing market remains

    unresolved.

    Figure 10: Unemployment In Dortmund 2000-2012

    SOURCE: Schulze and Ellwein (2012)

    Figure 11: Downtown Hrde

    SOURCE: Google Earth

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    T G M F U S18

    Dortmund today is a very different city than itwas 50 or 100 years ago, although it is a city that

    continues to be in transition rather than one that

    has clearly established its 21stcentury role. It is a

    far cleaner and greener city, it offers a better quality

    of life to its residents, and can boast a potentially

    strong emerging technologically-driven economy

    than before. At the same time, as Couch (2010)

    writes, Dortmund has made considerable progresstoward competitiveness. [] The problem is that it

    started from a position of disadvantage compared

    with other regional cities such as Dusseldorf, Kln,

    or Frankfurt, and these cities have not stood still

    either, so there has been little change in the relative

    position of Dortmund. That leads to Dortmunds

    ongoing challenges.

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    C D U R 19

    The Central Economic Challenge

    Couchs observation exemplifies the central

    challenge to Dortmunds economic devel-

    opment. Dortmund has demonstrated

    that it can go a considerable way to building a

    technology sector in the local economy, creating

    in the process a fairly substantial number of jobs

    through a massive and focused investment of

    public resources. It should also be emphasized

    that public resources are not limited to financial

    resources. One of the great strengths of the way in

    which Dortmund has executed its strategy is in the

    manner in which it has mobilized highly skilledand often specialized human capital to further the

    growth of its target clusters.

    Notwithstanding continuing challenges, the inten-

    tionality and focus of Dortmunds determined effort

    to build a new technologically driven local economy

    are impressive, and many features of this effort are

    worth serious consideration by economic develop-

    ment planners in the United States, independent of

    the level of public resources available. While there

    is undoubtedly some difference between the level

    of public resources devoted to economic develop-ment in Germany compared to the United States,

    that difference should not be exaggerated or seen

    as making the Dortmund experience less relevant.

    Cities in the United States spend substantial sums on

    economic development, both with respect to staffing

    public and quasi-public development entities, and

    in the form of often highly generous incentives for

    development projects.

    The central lesson of Dortmunds experience is the

    extent to which it is afocusedstrategy focused

    not only in the decision to prioritize a limited

    number of technology clusters, but even more in

    the many decisions about howto most effectively

    use available resources to maximize outcomes in

    those clusters. This focus is readily apparent in even

    the small details of the staffing and operation of the

    TZDO and its facilities.

    At the same time, the question remains whetherDortmunds technology sector is either self-

    sustaining or capable of further growth without

    continued substantial public investment. Can

    Dortmund hold its high-tech innovators and their

    firms, or is the city incubating talent that will then

    migrate to Dusseldorf, Munich, or Silicon Valley?

    This issue is a critical one to older industrial cities

    in the United States as well; while Pittsburgh, with

    its massive eds and meds sector and exceptional

    quality of life, may be on track to create a self-

    sustaining critical mass of technology-oriented

    growth, the same does not yet appear to be true ofthe other cities in the CIT initiative.28

    Moretti (2012) has pointed out the many ways in

    which a city, once behind in the skills and innova-

    tion race, is likely to find it harder and harder to

    catch up. Low housing prices and cost of living,

    as well as a generically good quality of life both

    of which Dortmund offers may not draw or

    hold the technological innovators, or the pool of

    highly skilled workforce that they need to succeed.

    Morettis analysis is even more relevant to the

    United States; as he writes:

    There are three Americas. At one extreme

    are the brain hubs cities with a well-

    educated labor force and a strong innova-

    tion sector. They are growing, adding good

    jobs, and attracting even more skilled

    workers. At the other extreme are cities once

    dominated by traditional manufacturing,

    which are declining rapidly, losing jobs and

    residents. In the middle are a number of

    cities that could go either way.

    The question is whether history is destiny, and

    whether a city can make the transition from one of

    28 Although, among the four other cities, it is clear that Cleve-land and Detroit, for all their difficulties, have a significantedge in this respect over Flint and Youngstown. This highlightsthe additional extent to which small older industrial cities arearguably doubly disadvantaged in the competition for talent andsustainable growth.

    F C: I

    U.S. C T6

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    T G M F U S20

    the Americas to another. Figure 12 shows recent job

    trends for the five cities that were part of the GMF

    initiative. As the figure shows, only one of the five

    cities, Pittsburgh, showed overall job growth during

    the last decade, although Clevelands job losseswere markedly less than those of the other three

    cities, supported by growth of over 50 percent in

    the education and health care sectors. Of the cities

    shown, it is possible that Pittsburgh may be making

    that transition; although it has only three-quarters

    of the population of Cleveland and less than half

    that of Detroit, it has more jobs than either. Pitts-

    burghs growth is also heavily dependent on the

    health care and education sectors; between 2002

    and 2011, those sectors added over 30,000 jobs in

    the city, offsetting a loss of 9,000 jobs in other parts

    of the local economy. Pittsburgh also stands out

    from the other cities in transition in terms of the

    educational attainment of its workforce, as shown

    in Figure 13.29This factor has been singled out

    by Moretti (2012) and many others as a powerful

    determinant of a city or regions growth potential.

    The competitiveness challenge may become even

    greater in coming years. Dortmund and those other

    cities playing catch-up are likely to be affected

    by the macroeconomic policies arising from the

    continuing eurozone fiscal crisis, and this will likely

    have an impact on social supports or discretionary

    funds for continued investment in technology

    sectors or large-scale redevelopment (Bmer 2005).

    Not surprisingly, uncertainty over the sustain-

    ability of their efforts was a recurrent theme in my

    interviews with both practitioners and observers of

    Dortmunds economic development efforts.

    While U.S. cities in transition may have been ableto mobilize less public sector support for economic

    development than German cities, the degree to

    which both economic development and physical

    29 The percentage of adults in Pittsburgh with a bachelors orhigher degree (34.4 percent) is significantly higher than thenational percentage (28.2 percent).

    Figure 12: Job Trends in Five Cities 2002-20111

    SOURCE: Bureau of the Census On-The-Map (city data); Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics program

    (national data)

    1 These are the earliest and most recent years available from the Bureau of the Census On The Map site, the only data source to providejobs data that allows comparisons between municipalities.

    2 The national data provided by the BLS uses somewhat different ways of categorizing jobs by sector, as a result of which there may besome inconsistency between the national and local data presented in Figure 7.

    Jobs 2002 Jobs 2011 %

    2002-

    2011

    Eds/Meds

    share

    2002

    Eds/Meds

    share

    2011

    % Eds/

    Meds share

    2002-2011

    Cleveland 262,586 256,480 - 2.3% 22.6% 36.5% + 61.5%

    Detroit 276,083 231,805 - 16.0 29.1 33.4 + 14.8

    Flint 60,222 40,373 - 33.0 25.1 37.4 + 49.0

    Pittsburgh 245,284 266,933 + 8.8 27.6 36.8 + 33.3

    Youngstown 34,947 29,218 - 16.4 42.4 38.4 - 9.4United

    States

    127,523,760 128,278,550 + 0.6 13.42 15.5 + 15.7

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    C D U R 21

    redevelopment in U.S. cities over the past decades

    has been fueled by public sector resources should

    not be underestimated. To the extent that those

    resources are diminishing, it will also mean that

    future growth will be largely limited to those

    economic sectors and geographic areas, if any, that

    have achieved economic take-off and no longer

    require public sector support.

    In many cities, that is likely to constrain development

    of new economic engines and limit the ability of the

    city to foster neighborhood revitalization or physical

    redevelopment outside areas already seen as prime

    locations, such as University Circle in Cleveland.

    The Challenge of Physical Redevelopment

    and Revitalization

    While the Phoenix project, particularly Phoenix

    East with its new lake, has been admirably

    conceived and executed, one cannot say that itis unique or fundamentally different from many

    successful brownfields redevelopment projects

    in the United States. Steel industry sites have

    been successfully redeveloped in Pittsburgh and

    Youngstown, with Pittsburghs Washingtons

    Landing or Summerset especially worthy of note.

    Similarly, many olderindustrial cities in the

    United States have seen

    significant redevelop-

    ment take place in their

    downtowns and in areas

    surrounding major

    universities and medical

    centers. Although

    such development is

    particularly notable in

    Pittsburgh and Cleve-

    land, cities such asYoungstown and Flint

    have seen life begin to

    return to their down-

    towns in recent years

    despite the persistence

    of pressing problems.

    As cities in transition redevelop downtowns and

    other central core areas, they can learn a useful

    lesson from Dortmund and other European cities

    in their treatment of the public realm.

    While U.S. downtowns have attractive public openspaces, such as Campus Martius in Detroit or Mellon

    Square Park in Pittsburgh, they are relatively few

    and rarely linked to a network of open spaces and

    pedestrian connections. Such a network has enabled

    Dortmund to create a city center that in many

    respects is more appealing and livable than most

    U.S. downtowns, despite the fact that its buildings

    are far less distinguished than those found in most

    downtowns of older cities in the United States. While

    one can argue that this is another manifestation of

    the greater level of public sector resources available

    for that purpose in Germany, we would suggest thatit has more to do with a lack of serious attention to

    the quality of the public realm in U.S. cities outside

    signature projects like Campus Martius.

    Certainly, cities like Cleveland, where billions of

    dollars are being invested in mixed-use develop-

    Figure 13: Percentage of Adults 25+ with a Bachelors or Higher Degree

    SOURCE: Five-Year American Community Survey 2007-2011

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    T G M F U S22

    ments in downtown and University Circle, and in

    major medical and entertainment facilities,

    could work with those developers to create a far

    more vibrant public realm in those parts of the city.

    The larger challenge facing cities in transition is

    how to extend redevelopment and revitalization

    beyond the central core the downtown and the

    areas around major university and medical facili-

    ties and a handful of closely linked residential

    areas to the rest of the city in order to foster both

    a better quality of life and greater market vitality

    in the neighborhoods that represent both the lions

    share of each citys land area and where the greatmajority of each citys population lives. Gentrifica-

    tion is a far less important issue in cities in transi-

    tion than is the spread of neighborhood decline and

    abandonment. Using median house sales prices as a

    proxy for market strength, Figure 14 illustrates the

    Figure 14: Median Sales Price by Census Block Group in Cleveland 2012

    SOURCE: The Reinvestment Fund/PolicyMap

    Downtown,

    Warehouse District,

    Ohio City, and Tremont

    University Circle

    and Little Italy

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    C D U R 23

    pattern in Cleveland. All of the areas in the city thatcontain any significant market strength are in two

    small clusters, one near downtown and the other

    around the University Circle area. The vast majority

    of the citys land area either has weak market condi-

    tions, reflected in house prices that are often under

    $30,000, or effectively no market, where there were

    too few sales transactions in the course of the year

    to enable the median to be calculated.

    This pattern of small clusters of vitality surrounded

    by large areas of weakness is typical of cities in

    transition. In the case of Youngstown and Flint,

    it is hard to characterize any of the citys residen-tial areas as truly strong market areas, although

    some retain functional levels of market activity.30

    A map of population growth would look very

    similar; a few pockets of growth in many cases

    from the in-migration of young single people

    and couples (so-called millennials) and large

    areas where population continues to decline. The

    evidence strongly suggests that growth in eds and

    meds employment and downtown revival does

    not lead to broader neighborhood revival, as the

    new in-migrants tend to cluster in high-density

    mixed-use areas, and the new jobs created are filled

    overwhelmingly by suburban commuters. As Aaron

    Renn has aptly written, the creative class doesnt

    have much in the way of coattails. (2013)

    The question of these cities neighborhoods is inti-

    mately linked to larger issues of poverty and race,

    with substantial and in many cases growing

    racial disparities of income, employment, and

    educational attainment in cities in transition. The

    importance of neighborhood effects in perpetu-

    ating intergenerational poverty and unemploy-

    ment has been well documented by recent research(Sampson 2012, Sharkey 2013). Unless this issue is

    30 We would argue that at a minimum, a strong market areamust have house prices at or above replacement cost, and thus beadequate to motivate buyers to fix up vacant houses and devel-opers to utilize vacant lots for infill development. By this stan-dard, no part of either Flint or Youngstown even comes close.

    confronted, and successfully addressed, a future inwhich these cities are made up of enclaves of pros-

    perity surrounded by a sea of poverty and disinvest-

    ment is not unrealistic.

    The Challenge of Social Inclusion

    The third challenge facing Dortmund and U.S.

    cities in transition is the extent to which they are

    divided by social, ethnic, and economic fault lines,

    which may be growing rather than diminishing.

    While poverty and unemployment in Dortmund

    are far from exclusively the problem of ethnic

    minorities, minorities are significantly over-represented in the ranks of the poor and unem-

    ployed. Twenty-six percent of the unemployed in

    Dortmund in 2013 were foreign nationals, roughly

    double their population share. This includes many

    of the children and grandchildren of the gstarbe-

    iter, so-called guest workers who were recruited

    to work in the mines and the steel mills during the

    post-war ramping up of coal and steel production,

    as well as more recent immigrants from the poorer

    countries in the EU.

    Although mitigated in its effects by a stronger

    social safety net, the social profile visible in Dort-

    mund is similar in many respects to that of U.S.

    older industrial cities. The German educational

    system, according to one informant, while highly

    effective at teaching children from middle-class

    households, or from households with supportive

    and engaged parents, is far less effective with the

    children of low-income households, particularly

    those from dysfunctional households or non-

    ethnic German backgrounds. Many students drop

    out before receiving a vocational qualification,

    sharply increasing the likelihood of their expe-riencing sustained unemployment and poverty

    as adults. With the ethnic German population

    aging, a growing percentage of the young people

    in Dortmund are from other ethnic backgrounds,

    and increasingly likely to be poor. According to the

    same informant, roughly one-third of the children

    http://www.censusscope.org/us/s26/rank_dissimilarity_white_black.htmlhttp://www.censusscope.org/us/s26/rank_dissimilarity_white_black.htmlhttp://www.censusscope.org/us/s26/rank_dissimilarity_white_black.htmlhttp://www.censusscope.org/us/s26/rank_dissimilarity_white_black.htmlhttp://www.censusscope.org/us/s26/rank_dissimilarity_white_black.html
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    T G M F U S24

    in the city live in familiesbelow the poverty level,

    compared to 14 percent for

    the state of North Rhine-

    Westphalia.

    Dortmunds social divide

    translates into a spatial

    divide, in which the

    northern part of the city is

    more a lower income area,

    and the south more affluent.

    Hrde, a lower income

    area in the southern part ofthe city, is an exception to

    this pattern, but it appears

    to be at significant risk of

    gentrification as a result of

    the impacts of the Phoenix

    development. While it is far

    from a foregone conclusion, there is a significant

    risk that the Dortmund of tomorrow will be a more

    segregated city, socially, ethnically and spatially,

    than the Dortmund of today. While similar cities

    in the United States are already highly segregated

    by race and economic status, it is likely that current

    trends will tend to increase rather than mitigate

    existing patterns of segregation.31

    This challenge is two-fold. For any city to be able

    to mount a sustained effort to tackle the issues of

    economic and racial inequality and foster greater

    social and economic inclusion, it will need to

    maintain a steady level of economic growth. Their

    ability to sustain economic growth, however, will

    be affected by larger macroeconomic trends and

    national (and in Europe, EU) policies. These trends

    and policies will define overall levels of national andregional economic growth as well as the availability

    31 Dissimilarity indices, a widely used measure of racial segrega-tion, are high in all five cities in the GMF initiative, ranging from79.4 in Cleveland and 76.8 in Flint to 64.2 in Youngstown and63.3 in Detroit. See http://www.censusscope.org/us/s26/rank_dissimilarity_white_black.html, accessed September 5, 2013.

    of funds for continued investment at the local level,

    and largely determine the extent to which older

    industrial cities will be able to compete with other

    economically more powerful cities throughout the

    world. At the same time, as Dortmund has shown,

    strong local strategies and sustained focus onwell-defined economic targets can influence a citys

    outcome, albeit within the parameters established by

    larger forces around them.

    To varying degrees, U.S. cities in transition have

    demonstrated the ability to foster both economic

    and physical transformation. Pittsburghs reuse

    of brownfields sites for mixed-use development,

    Youngstowns industrial redevelopment, and the

    development of University Circle and the Euclid

    Avenue corridor in Cleveland, are all significant

    achievements. At the same time, all of these cities

    continue to demonstrate significant and growingdisparities in economic and social condition,

    disparities that are considerably exacerbated by

    race, as illustrated in Figure 15.

    The central challenge for all of these cities and

    their European counterparts is to find the key to

    Figure 15: Percentage of Adults 25+ with a Bachelors or Higher Degree

    SOURCE: Five-Year American Community Survey 2007-2011

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    C D U R 25

    leveraging their successful efforts at economic andphysical revitalization in order to reduce, rather

    than exacerbate, racial and economic disparities,

    and better link the citys population to emerging

    opportunities. Although not entirely a function

    of workforce and human capital development

    strategies, such strategies are a critical element in

    the picture. They must be multifaceted, and may

    include any and all of the following:

    Expanding early childhood education;

    Improving K-12 schools, and providing better

    links between public education and the workworld;

    Better mobilizing the resources of training

    programs and community colleges to

    improve the workforce skills in lower income

    communities;

    Better linking economic development activities

    with workforce development programs;

    Working with major area employers to hire

    more city residents, including development of

    career ladders to offer opportunities for upward

    mobility in areas such as the health care sector;

    Enacting local hire or first source ordinances

    requiring firms receiving discretionary benefits

    from local government to hire locally;32and

    Improving transportation access for urban

    workers to major suburban job centers.

    32 A number of cities have also enacted living wage ordinances,which mandate that firms receiving some form of discretionaryassistance from the city pay their workers a living wage, which,although varying from city to city, is significantly higher thanthe statutory minimum wage. There is considerable disagree-ment over whether such ordinances provide greater benefitby increasing the earnings of low-wage workers, or harm bydiscouraging firms from locating in cities with such ordinances.In the final analysis, it is likely that the greater a citys competi-tive advantage, the more likely that the effects of the ordinancewill be positive. There is an extensive, but largely inconclusiveliterature of this subject.

    Economic growth may be a necessary conditionfor addressing poverty, unemployment, and social

    exclusion, but abundant evidence has shown that it is

    not a sufficient condition. As Dortmunds experience

    shows, but the experience of U.S. cities shows even

    more powerfully, economic growth and selective

    spatial revitalization do not solve these problems; a

    rising tide does not lift all boats. Only by connecting

    the dots in ways that explicitly confront these issues

    is there any realistic hope of gaining ground. This

    demands that a citys leaders engage with the wider

    community, explicitly confront these issues, work to

    foster inclusion in planning and decision-making,and muster the political will to implement inten-

    tional strategies to overcome the widening economic

    and social gaps affecting their cities.

    Cities in the United States and Europe are facing

    challenges that, however different they may look

    on the surface, are actually closely related. Not

    only Germany, but many other countries including

    France and the U.K., are all facing the challenge of

    integrating immigrant populations. As such, U.S.

    and European cities have a great deal to learn from

    one another by sharing information and by collabo-

    rating with one another on projects that integrate

    transatlantic knowledge-sharing into their design

    and execution, focused on the central question of

    connecting the dots, both in the narrower sense

    of connecting working development, economic

    development, and physical change, and in the larger

    sense of fostering equity and inclusion in the cities of

    tomorrow. We are hopeful that the German Marshall

    Funds Cities in Transition initiative will be the

    beginning of a sustained effort in this direction.

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