connection between sustainable growth rate and valley of death

8/20/2019 connection between sustainable growth rate and valley of death

1/20

? T

P M, E F L

E = E1+NIDI

NIDI = EBIT∙(1T)( 1 1(NIDI) )

EBIT∙(1T)PM = EBIT∙(1T) ; E = S ; FL=(E+D)

S IK EIK = E+DEC ;

I PM = PM1 ; E = E 1 ; FL= FL1

(SS1) ∙ ( E 1 ∙ FL1 ) = S∙PM∙(1)

( SS1 ) ∙ ( E 1 ∙ FL1 ) = S ∙PM∙(1)

E = (C/S+APIC)1+∆(C/S+APIC)I + R/E1+NIDI

I ∆(C/S+APIC)I = 0, :

P = EBIT∙(1T)

S E = E1 + P ∙ (1)

S ∙E = S1∙E1 + P ∙ (1)

S S1

IK∙S ∙E = I1∙S1∙ E1 + P ∙ (1)

IK S IK1 S1

S ∙ (E 1) ∙ (FL1) = S1 ∙ (E 11) ∙ (FL11) + P ∙ (1)

S ∙ (E 1) ∙ (FL

1) = S1 ∙ (E 11) ∙ (FL1

1) + S ∙ PM(1)

1 1

* = (SS1) S1 ; 1+* = S S1

* = (1+*) ∙ PM ∙ E ∙ FL ∙ (1)

* = PM ∙ E ∙ FL ∙ (1)

1 PM ∙ E ∙ FL ∙ (1)


2/20

B :

E ROIC ≠ O ROIC + C ROIC

I, O C ROIC % E+D :

E ROIC = IK/(E+D) O ROIC + EC/(E+D) C ROIC

E:

EBIT=$20, T=40%, E+D = $100, IK=$90 EC=$10

E (A T) EC = $0.6 ( E , )

I E EC=0.6, 12.6% 13.33%I E EC=0, 12.0% 13.33%

6%13.33%90% 10%

A EC0 ( %EC E+D 0%), E. ROIC EC E. ROIC EC

E ROIC , EC !N: S E ROIC O ROIC FL ( EC≠0) . F E, E=50, D=50 IK=90, EC=10. T, FL (50+50/50 = 2) IK FL (50+5010/5010/FL = 2 ).

$20(140%)+$0.6

$90+$10

$20(140%)

$90

$90

$90 + $10 * + *

$10

$90 + $10

$0.6

$90

12.6%

IK+EC = E+D

IK = E+EC

N E. ROIC ≈ O ROIC

12.0% 0.6%


3/20


4/20


5/20

O ROIC = EBIT∙(1T)

IK


6/20


IK

IC = M*E


7/20


IK

IC = M*E

= EBIT S

S IK


8/20


IK

IC = M*E

= EBIT S

S IK

E+DEC=IKEC = E+DCC,

T IK = CC


9/20


IK

IC = M*E

= EBIT S

S IK

E+DEC=IKEC = E+DCC,

T IK = CC

= EBIT S

S CC


10/20


IK

IC = M*E IC = M*E G

= EBIT S

S IK

E+DEC=IKEC = E+DCC,

T IK = CC

= EBIT S

S CC


11/20


IK

IC = M*E IC = M*E G

= EBIT S

S IK

E+DEC=IKEC = E+DCC,

T IK = CC

= EBIT S

S CC

S, E=SIK=SCC. , FL FL = (E+D) E = (E+DEC) (EECFL)


12/20


13/20


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15/20


16/20

* > , E C E+DEC > CC

* = , E C E+DEC = CC

* < , E C E+DEC < CC

, , ( ). I

E C 0 ( ) E C

, DEFICI!!!

(

CC E+D ! C

? : (I) * E C (I) >* E C


17/20

*


18/20

*

$64,538

$81,601 $93,841

$102,025$110,923

$120,597$131,115

$142,550$154,982

$168,499

B F C F. , FCF ! ? B K C. A!!

, FCF K

FCF


19/20

*

$64,538

$81,601 $93,841

$102,025$110,923

$120,597$131,115

$142,550$154,982

$168,499

B F C F. , FCF ! ? B K C. A!!

, FCF K

FCF


20/20

T ,

$3,753, S

$64,538 (2015) $134,059 (2024)

S

1

*≈8.74%

C S/(D)A

!

Q: B ,

24

. 2 12% 2024 20% . 1?

I $4,490 (20% . 2), S

$64,538 (2015) $150,504 (2024)

S 2

connection between sustainable growth rate and valley of death

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