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Consensus and interaction on a long term strategy for Sustainable Development

Karel Mulder

Why a long term vision?

Generally:

Required for every investment: How do I get an ROI?

But,

“In the long term, we are all dead”

John Maynard Keynes

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Time frames matter

Longer term perspectives lead to different actions:

• cut tree, rent tree, use tree

• success of ‘family business

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Grand SD challenges of today

• Climate change

• Depletion of resources

• Declining Biodiversity

• Overpopulation

• Food security

• Persistent pollution

• Mega risks

• Inequity

• Intolerance

• ……

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Why a long term vision?

• These global problems take persistent action, during many years………….

• But still, why a long term vision?

• Why not just work on the problems step by step?

• A few examples from transport:

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SUSTAINABLE TECHNOLOGY????

Sustainable car? "The car’s body is composed 90% by plate panels which are cut according to the desired finish and the rests are recycled, and completed with thermo-formed pieces”.

The front and back trains, the engine and the stick present a complexity similar to the one of a three wheels charge vehicle. The Nexo car can be equipped with an engine which could get to 20 hp, enough to reach 80 kilometres an hour to go around the city. It can work with a 9 square metres CNG tank that can fuel up to 250 kilometres. As an alternative, there’s also the option of an electric engine, but with less power.

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2006/11/nexo_the_argent.php

Were cars around 1900 Sustainable?

•In 1818, New York City Council: regulation. Manure collection & processing: special "manure-yards" to process: "rotting“, overturning and exposure to weathering.

Problems:

•Abt. 1200 tons of manure daily on the streets: dust, typhoid

•dead animals (In 1880, New York City removed 15,000 dead horses from its streets)

•Noise

•1908: 20.000 death?

Sustainability is not one thing, it is many things….. Which have to be balanced

• The technological improvements have effects for several SD issues. E.g.

• Food vs. Fuel

• Fuel Efficiency vs. safety

• unhealthy but affordable

• Energy efficient but not recyclable

Long term vision represents consensus on a balance of these demands

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Requirements for a long term SD vision

• Equity next generation

• Systemic technological changes: how to get out of lock-in. We carry our histories:

• size of Saturn rocket

• Qwerty

• 220/240 Volts, Pb in gasoline

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Short term solutions might counteract long term solutions

R&D Investments, you can spend your euro only once

• More efficient use of coal, or windpower?

• Cutting less rainforest, or developing alternative timber?

• Stimulating rail traffic, or going for clean electric cars?

• Light weight composites or recyclable materials?

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Nobody can decide on the solutions alone!

• We need to work consistently towards a long term goal that implies working on technology, on laws, on culture and habits

• Many stakeholders have ‘blocking’ power: if they are not involved, they might derail the improvements: researchers, companies, customers, suppliers, national agencies, municipalities, etc.

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Strategic decisions with long term consequences!

These need to be

- widely accepted!

- Not ending up in a dead end street but at SD!

- Adaptable according to changing conditions.

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a tremendous challenge for scientists and engineers!

“The engineer” knows as little of technological strategy, as a fish knows of hydrodynamics

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Broadening the Innovation process and long term vision

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