CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS AND RISK ASSESSMENT OF LPG TRANSPORTATION THROUGH RAIL AND ROAD

Amaldas P K

Colin K Pallippattu

Prasoon K P

Sachin Earnest

Sangeeth Satheesh

Sooraj A S

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

14920 16140 17418 18680

Series 3

LPG DEMAND - INDIA

LPG midstream operation

B-Bottling plant

I-Industies

R-Refinery

IT- Importing Terminal

IT

IT

R B

B

B

B

I

I

STUDY AREAS

1) We considered 35 km road distance from kalamassery to chalakudy (NH 47) –study area1

2) 5 selected areas were taken(Kalamassery, Paravurkavala , Aluva , Angamaly and Chalakudy)

3) Aluva railway station as Study area 2

PROJECT METHODOLOGY

ALOHA

MATHEMATICAL MODELLING

SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT

ETA

FTA

SOCIETAL RISK DIAGRAM

PAST INCIDENTS ANALYSIS

BLEVE INCIDENTS

28 BLEVE during

1951 to 1984

LPG37%

BUTANE7%PROPANE

22%

GASOLINE7%

OTHERS26%

LPG BUTANE PROPANE GASOLINE OTHERS

San Juanico disaster

 Industrial disaster caused by a massive series of explosions at LPG tank farm in San Juanico, Mexico in 19th November 1984

The explosions consumed 11,000 m3 of LPG

The disaster was initiated by a gas leak on the site, likely caused by a pipe rupture during transfer operations

500–600 people killed, and 5000–7000 others suffering severe burns.

VCE INCIDENTS 89 VCE during 1939 to1992

BUTANE/PROPANE

39%

LPG9%

ETHYLENE18%

GASOLINE7%

BUTADIENE7%

BUTANE/PROPANE LPG ETHYLENE GASOLINE BUTADIENE

NATURAL GAS CYCLOHEXANE OTHERS

Bangkok disaster

A LPG tanker truck crashed on the expressway exit at New Phetchaburi Road in Bangkok in 24th September 1990.

causing large explosions and fires that burned through 38 shop houses for over 24 hours. 90 persons died, 121 were injured and 43 cars were destroyed.

MAJOR TANKER ACCIDENTS IN INDIA

UPPINANGADY

Jet fire and vapors cloud fire, vapor cloud explosions took 8 lives

KARUNAGAPILLY

Jet fire and VCE took 4 lives

CHALA

jet fire, 3 vapor cloud explosions and finally BLEVE took 20 lives

UPPINANGADY

KARUNAGAPILLY

CHALA

WHAT HAPPENED IN CHALA

Tanker carrying 17ton of LPG strikes the median in chala and overturned

The driver cabin separated from tanker body and tank had a leak

Uncontrolled release of LPG Driver informed surrounding occupants Formation of vapor cloud within minutes Followed by VCE, jet fire and finally BLEVE

Risk Assessment

EVENT TREE ANALYSIS OF LPG RELEASE

EVENT TREE ANALYSIS OF TANKER ACCIDENTS

FAULT TREE ANALYSIS OF LPG RELEASE

Consequence analysis of LPG release from road tanker using ALOHA

Jet Fire

BLEVE

Blast area

Consequence analysis of LPG release from LPG wagon using ALOHA

JET FIRE

BLEVE

BLAST AREA

Mathematical Modelling

For BLEVE Radiation

For VCE

TNT equivalent model

ROBERTSON Model for BLEVE

Distance(m)

RadiationkW/m^2)

100 25

120 20.7

140 15

160 12.3

180 9.5

1 2 3 4 50

5

10

15

20

25

30

Radiation

Radiation vs Distance graph

Distance(m)

Overpressure(Pa)

40 43337

45 13698

50 6475

55 3755

60 2409

65 1623

1 2 3 4 5 60

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

Overpressure

Overpressure vs distance graph

Fatalities due to thermal flux from a BLEVE fireball

Societal risk diagram

Conversion from probits to percentage

FIREMODE

Fire mode is QRA tool for fire modelling it estimates various parameters like Thermal radiation, air blast overpressure due to explosion of different modes of fire such as BLEVE, VCE,JET FIRE & POOL FIRE. This software uses proven mathematical models

FIREMODE 2

Fire mode 2 shall be the updated version for the software firemode, It seems to include additional features such as graphical representation of models. This features enables to estimate how much area be affected by a particular consequence from the point source of origin

Conversion of graphical representation of modelling to KML files. These KML files have to superimpose the model on google maps

Wish to include societal and individual risk estimating features

Risk contours

Conclusion

Reference Less loss prevention volume 1 and 3

OISD 144 – LPG Installations

OISD 159 - LPG tank trucks – requirements of safety on design/ fabrication and Fittings.

OISD 161- LPG Tank trucks incidents : rescue and relief operations

Check sheet for BOGIE LPG tank wagon type – BTPGLN - - government of India ministry of railways.

Q & A for shell LPG depot (PHI Assessment).

CCPS, 1999 Guidelines for Evaluating the Characteristics of Vapour Cloud Explosions, Flash Fires and BLEVEs Center for Chemical Process Safety.

Case study of chala accident by OISD representatives

Risk analysis of LPG transport by road and rail – Roberto Bubbico, Cinzia Ferrari, Barbara Mazzarotta – Journal of loss prevention.

J. casal. , J Arnold, H. Montiel, E. Planas-Cuchi,- modelling and understanding of BLEVE

Experimental charaterisation and modelling of hazards of BLEVE and boilover – Delphine laborer

www.hindu.com

www.hindustanpetroleum.com

www.youtube.com

www.asianetnews.com

www.indiavisiontv.com

www.wikipedia.com

www.keralapcb.org

www.punjllogd.com

www.shell.com

www.totalgas.com

Thank you..