consequences of earthquake

8/3/2019 Consequences of Earthquake

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Earthquakes- Consequences and Response

Lodi SH*, Rafeeqi SFA**

* Professor, ** Professor and ChairmanDepartment of Civil Engineering,

NED University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi, Pakistan

ABSTRACT

Human Response to natural hazards and disasters has always been a subject of intense

investigation and study. Historically earthquakes are supposed to be one of the major naturalhazards that have caused devastation in terms of high number of human lives, wide spread building

and infrastructure failures and sufferings, as remains of an earthquake. Many areas of Pakistan lie

in seismic risk zones and the recent earthquake of January 2001 at Bhuj have made it all moreimportant for us to direct our efforts toward mitigation. The historical perspective which led to the

establishment of Cowasjee Earthquake Study Centre NED (CESNED), and the role played to

combat this natural hazard are highlighted in this write up.

INTRODUCTION

Human response to natural hazards and disasters has always been a subject of intenseinvestigation and study. Most of the time the effort is independent in the sense that professionals ofvaried fields and disciplines, work within the confines of their own field, and an additional work isthen needed to accumulate the work to present it in a collective manner to elaborate the global view.While it is commendable that the professionals are well aware of their responsibilities, however,natural hazards need to be dealt with global perspective. Fortunately in the developed world it is notmuch difficult to find a platform from where the accumulated work could be formulated with global

perspectives, and present the research and research needs within the broader context, while it isnon- existent in the developing world. The other objective of such an effort is to provide the non-engineering or non-professional audience with a fuller appreciation of the context within whichsuch professional practice is conducted i.e. how theory and precedents are integrated to determineaccepted practice. Such a practice is also non-existent in most of the countries of developing worldspecially Pakistan.

Historically Earthquakes are supposed to be one of the major natural hazards that havecaused devastation in terms of high number of human loss, wide spread building and infrastructurefailures and sufferings as remains of an earthquake. Only to cite few examples from history, from1925 to 1984 in Turkey only, over 57,000 lives were lost and the damage to infrastructure was 65%

of the damages caused by other natural disaster1. Dinar earthquake of October 1995 and Kocaeliearthquake of August 1999 added 18,000 deaths and 45,000 injuries to the list, and displaced morethan 250,000 people2,3. Some of the greatest earthquakes in the world with magnitude greater than8.0 occurred in a short span of 50 years in Indian Subcontinent: Assam earthquake of 1997


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(magnitude 8.7), Kangra earthquake of 1905 (magnitude 8.6), Bihar-Nepal earthquake of 1934(magnitude 8.4) and the Assam-Tibet earthquake of 1950 (magnitude 8.7), not to forget the Kutchearthquake of 1819 having 8.3 magnitude, which caused ground motion which was perceptible asfar as Calcutta4. Kutch earthquake caused a fault scrap of about 26 km long and about 3m high,which later was to be, remembered as famous Allah Bund now in Pakistan. Kutch being far away

from the plate boundaries, this earthquake is one of the largest intra-plate earthquakes to haveoccurred in the world4.

In recent years the damaging earthquakes, which hit Indian part of the Sub-Continent wererather moderate with magnitude 6-7, which includes Koyna earthquake of 1967, Bihar-Nipalearthquake of 1988, Ultarkashi earthquake of 1991, Killari (Latur) earthquake of 1993 and Jabalpurearthquake of 1997

4. These earthquakes not only killed almost 11,000 people but injured about

15,000 and damaged over 0.1 million houses.5,6,7,8 In September 1999 an earthquake of magnitude7.6 struck central Taiwan, killing 2400 people and accumulating damages of the tune of US $20 to30 billions

9. In recent years, at each of such incident there had been tremendous efforts to learn

from such happenings and formulate guiding principles to mitigate its effect either independently,

or in a collaborative manner to combat any future happening. This effort is an ongoing process andis witnessed all across the globe, however, it is unfortunate that not much is done in this part of theworld.

Many areas of Pakistan lie in seismic risk zones and one can still remember the devastatingQuetta earthquake of magnitude 7.5, which killed as many as 25,000 people in 1935. Pakistan hasexperienced about 18 lethal earthquake since year 1900 and the total fatalities reported are about61,000.10 Kazmi11 have presented a map highlighting the active faults and probable lineaments inPakistan, Figure. 1. Loya et al

12described that geologically Pakistan is characterized by

conspicuous tectonic features, and can be divided into six major geological units: Himalayan-Karakoram Northern Collision Zone; Western Rifted Margin of Peninsular Shield; North-SouthTrending Fold-Thrust Belt of Mountain Ranges; Chagai-Raskoh Volcanic Arch; Makran FlyschBasin and Submarine Feature of the Arabian Sea, Figure. 2 and Figure. 3.


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Figure. 1. Active faults and probable lineaments in Pakistan (after ref. 12).

Figure. 2. Salient tectonic features of Pakistan (after ref. 12).


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Figure. 3. Tectonic features of Pakistan (after ref. 12).

On 26th January 2001, a devastating earthquake of magnitude 7.7 hit the western Indian stateof Gujarat. The earthquake lasted 45 seconds. The epicentre was located near the town of Bhuj inthe Runn of Kutch area, a remote and marshy region about 65 miles north-east of Jamnagar and 180miles South-east of Hyderabad, Pakistan. Ahmedabad, located 275 miles away from epicentre wasseverely affected. Some of the statistics of this earthquake are reported in Reference 13, however,20,005 human lives were lost in Gujarat, about 166,000 injured where 20,717 were serious injuries,apart from wide spread damage to the infrastructure facilities and property.

Although the shocks of the earthquake were felt across Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal,however, no damage in terms of loss of lives in comparison to India was witnessed in Pakistan.Widespread liquefaction and lateral spreading of soil have, however, been reported in many parts ofthe South-East Sind (Badin, Taluka Mithi, Taulka Nangarparkar of Tharparkur). Several feet widecraters appeared/ developed on and around Badin-Khadan road. A factory collapsed, a Minaret of ashrine came down in Badin area and a four storied building collapsed in Hyderabad. Samad

14while

discussing the mechanism of earthquake of January 26, surmise that rocks in the region areprimarily Jurassic to cretaceous age sedimentary and volcanic rocks. The Earthquakes in India andPakistan are the result of the compression thrust of Eurasian Plate with Indian Plate .Theneotectonic geology of Kutch consists of a series of folds and faults with a general WNW/ESEtrend. The region is still in a state of compression from India/Asian collision stresses, Figure . 4.


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Figure. 4. Region in a state of compression from Indian/ Asian collision stresses (after ref.14).

Figure. 5, shows some of the faults mapped by Malik et al 2000. The Kutch region appearsto be one area where above-normal seismicity rates exist. It will be interesting to discoverwhether a correspondingly higher than normal strain-rate prevails in the region and if sowhy? Allah Bund fault is close to eastern boarder and if this fault extends westward due totectonic movement than it pose serious consequences for earthquake hazard in Karachi.


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Figure.5. Seismicity of Kutch in last 200 years from 1668-1997 (after ref. 14).

Similarities as shown in Plate. 1 clearly demonstrates that had these areas of Badin habitedlikewise an urban city, many lives would have been lost and wide spread damage would haveoccurred.

The incident of 26th

January 2002 suggests that somewhere someone has to start working onthe lines on which almost all other nations have already been working. In this part of the world mostof the professionals have to rely on information collected by someone else, they have to rely oncodes, specifications, guidance and procedures developed by the developed world. In manycircumstances this may work and this state of affairs although may not be harmful at themacroscopic level, however, at microscopic level they may lead to serious flaws. These flaws arisedue to the basic erroneous understanding of adoption rather than adaptation. Even if adaptivemodels are developed, they are most of the time left on ones own choice, without noticing that thedocument in hand is not an effort of an individual but a collective effort of a multidisciplinary coregroup, having representatives from almost all professional sectors and Government agencies.

Keeping in view the above state of affairs, the senior faculty members of Department ofCivil Engineering, NED University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi, some few years agoembarked on a mission of establishing an Earthquake Engineering Resource Centre through a self


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devised agenda of their own. The task force was working on various aspects of mitigation foralmost last ten years. Even the PhD of two of the faculty members was designed keeping in viewthe mitigation objective. A number of undergraduate projects were completed on the same theme. Itwas planned to disclose the achievements at some suitable occasion, after a few more years of work,but as a result of the consequences of Earthquake of 2001, it was decided to bring the centre to the

limelight to take up the task of MITIGATION through awareness and preparedness of the commonpeople. Earthquake 2001 provided the opportunity to formally launch the opening of EarthquakeEngineering Study Centre at Department of Civil Engineering later to be known as CowasjeeEarthquake Study Centre NED (CESNED).

Liquefaction damages in Badin, Pakistan. Land damaged due liquefaction in Gujrat, India.

Craters in land due to liquefaction in Badin Similar craters in Gujarat, India.


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Typical pan cake failure of Ghousia Building, Similar failure of four storied building inHyderabad, Pakistan. Gujarat, India.

Plate. 1. Similarities of damages during earthquake 2001 in Pakistan and India (after ref.13).

NEED FOR SUCH A CENTRE

The need for such establishment of CESNED was felt due to the following reasons: Non-existence of culture to identify areas of indigenous research; Non-existence of a focal point to accumulate and analyse data and a clearinghouse to

disseminate knowledge regarding earthquakes in a scientific manner;

Non-existence of a platform to present indigenous research and research needs within a broadercontext;

Absence of culture for a collective effort of multi disciplinary core group; Non-availability of platform to provide non-engineering and non-professional audience with a

fuller appreciation of context within which such professional practice is conducted.

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES OF COWASJEE EARTHQUAKE STUDY CENTRE AT NED

(CESNED)

When the idea was floated the main objectives of CESNED were conceived to be as follows:

1. CESNED shall be a non-profit centre which shall house national and global data pertaining toearthquakes and shall act as a clearing house for disseminating accumulated knowledge in aprescribed manner;


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2. CESNED should have expertise in all areas of pre and post disaster mitigation;3. CESNED should have the capacity and capability to identify research needs and conduct such

research in collaboration with other organization if needed;

4. CESNED should respond to emergency needs and should be able to provide guiding principlesfor post-disaster mitigation, to the agencies and authorities.

METHODOLOGY ADOPTED TO ACHIEVE THE DESIRED OBJECTIVES

The Department was of the opinion that the centre should formally be launched after completingthe prerequisites to a desired level, therefore to achieve this strenuous task, the Department decidedto follow a methodology which eventually could lead to the establishment of the centre on firmfoundation.

As the main theme was based on the mitigation aspects of the disaster, which actuallyencompasses and includes all what most of the time is done by specialized groups of one area, it ispertinent to present the flow chart which describes various aspects of Mitigation, Figure. 6.

As is evident from the flow chart, Figure. 6, that to achieve expertise in different aspects ofmitigation, simultaneous efforts had to be done in varied areas. Salient features of the areas wheresimultaneous efforts were needed, were identified as follows:

1. to encourage faculty members to design their Ph.D. proposal in line with theobjectives;

2. to encourage such final year project reports which would help in accumulatingnational data, needed to achieve objectives;

3. encourage faculty members to take up collaborative research studies leading toimproved knowledge in related areas;

4. persuade faculty members to design and conduct experimental studies to generateunderstanding of mechanical properties of local building materials;

5. persuade faculty members to develop expertise in different aspects through theirown resources.


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As it should have been, a well planned organized campaign and sincere effort gave remarkableresults, which are highlighted as follows:

* Fortunately recently two of the facultys members obtained their Ph.D. in the following areas,which were in line with the set objectives:

1. Strengthening of structure2. Constitutive modelling of reinforced concrete

Both areas are of immense value to mitigation. Improved understanding of the behaviour ofconstituents of reinforced concrete is possible through design of numerical experiments in complexstate of stress, and the centre now have the full capability to embark on research studies in thisdirection which could eventually lead to performance based national codes. Presently a researchstudent is in the advanced stage of developing a numerical model for composite materials, and weare hopeful that this would lead us ahead of the frontiers of existing knowledge in the area we areworking on strengthening technique in flexure has been pioneered which have opened up arenas of

adaptation in variety of situations, and the developed understanding have paved way for developingtheoretical guiding principles for post-disaster rehabilitation. Implication of the un-bonded ness onflexure members due to corrosion of reinforcement, and the residual flexural strength of memberswhere part or whole of the reinforcement is exposed, can now conveniently be modelled. Theadvanced understanding in this area would lead to substantial saving in terms of relief of props forstructure, where replacement of corroded reinforcement is needed.

* Most performance codes require significant engineering input and are referred to as fullyengineered and are typically restricted to more expensive urban construction.

Rural areas of the third world, however, are full of marginally-engineered or non-engineered construction.

Studies were conducted and data has been accumulated regarding such non-engineeredconstruction. Mitigation models and proposal has been developed, independently and incollaboration with other organization.

CESNED now has full capabilities of developing analytical models for such construction,conducting workshops on mitigation models, and transferring know how to the rural populationthrough mobile training courses.

Experimental and analytical studies have also been carried out to develop indigenousconstruction techniques, retrofitting and strengthening methods for ductile performance ofrural structures in the event of an earthquake.


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In the urban context of mitigation apart from expertise in post-disaster rehabilitation,extensive work has been carried out in accumulating research literature, findings and studies inthe area of seismic evaluation of buildings, demolition, planning and designing of shelters,infrastructure and bridge monitoring maintenance.

Based on the study of bridge monitoring models from year 1960 to year 2000, of Europe andUSA, a bridge monitoring model Bridge Database Management System (BDMS) havebeen developed and is available on the desk for viewing. The model is primarily developed formonitoring of the new bridges in Karachi, but has the capability to be adopted with slightmodification anywhere in the country. The model also has the capability to be enhancedaccording to the demands of the day. The document is for sale to organizations whether publicor private. Another proposal is in the advanced stage of development for the perusal ofdevelopment authorities, regarding provision of shelters in this urban metropolis.

* Construction practices and materials play a vital role in seismic resistance apart from designinput. While the former have already been achieved through studies on fully-engineered and

non-engineered construction, the later aspect is related to the ductility requirements.

Emphasis was therefore given to study of indigenous materials and provision of ductility.

A research exercise was conducted in collaboration with Pakistan Steel, which is againavailable at the desk for viewing. The out come of the study reveals that how correct was theadopted research direction. The conclusions of the study should be an eye opener for the designengineers.

The Department through extensive study has formulated research proposals onquantification of ductility, rather than relying on the insufficient premise of designing anddetailing an under-reinforced section. Not only that we have doubts that the re-distributionprescribed by ACI-318 may not be applicable to the steel that we are using, we are also afraidthat there are certain quarrying sites which may not fit the empirical relation for modulus ofelasticity given by ACI Code which is normally followed in Pakistan. The Department, afterstudying the issues related to serviceability failure of one bridge in Punjab, has reasons tobelieve that very basic research for constituent indigenous materials is the need of the hour.

CESNED has all the academic capabilities to design and conduct such research, if suchfunding, which may lead to procurement of, required testing equipments is available.

Other allied disciplines such as transportation, environmental engineering, architecture andwater resources engineering have sufficiently been supporting the objectives of theCESNED.


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Many studies related to mitigation efforts, directly and indirectly are on the data bank ofCESNED.

More emphasis is now being laid on traffic delays due to route alignments, signals, and roundabout and broken roads, which hampers the mitigating effort.

Faculty members have produced papers that are read at National/International

conferences, and published in reputed Journals, emphasizing the need of such studies.

The Department of Architecture and Department of Environmental Engineering are anothervaluable source of supporting the objectives of CESNED and efforts are in progress to identifyresearch areas that may enhance the mitigation models.

If Figure. 6 were now viewed in conjunction with Table-1, it would be evident thatCESNED is fully capable of handling almost all issues related to mitigation and has now beenformally launched and is fully operational, and is committed to its objectives. University

resources, whatever they may be, are insufficient to meet the funding requirement of a centre, whichhas embarked on a wholesome task. COWASJEE FOUNDATION has provided generous initialfundingand efforts are underway to generate more funds.

It does not have to be told that in developed world such centres have Federal Support, wetherefore would also like to request Federal Government to support CESNED, which in my opinionis the only centre in Pakistan, which started formal functioning after completing the pre-requisitesand establishing itself on firm grounds.

CESNED is now fully functional and a bi-annual newsletter is its regular feature. Two issuesof the newsletter have already been published where Mitigation is kept as the main theme.

Table-1. Role of different groups in mitigation earthquake (Developed at CESNED)

NON-PROFESSIONAL

GROUPS PRE-DISASTER POST-DISASTER

Media

Promoting awareness and preparedness programs for generalpublic

Guiding government agenciesregarding hurdles, ground realities

Critical reviews on researchdirections education and course ofactions

Special news bulletins andprograms related to happenings

Highlights of mitigationtechniques

Realistic reporting and highlyprofessional journalism

Government

National disaster preparedness plans Code and specification enforcement Building and infra-structure stock

Developing contingency plans forimmediate and long term relief

Co-ordination between National


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Organization

And Agencies

management

Collaboration with researchorganizations and universities

Budgeting and fund raising forprotection.

and International relief agencies

Removing hurdles for immediateand emergency handling of issues

NGOs

Developing relevant data bank atlocal level

Imparting awareness andconducting workshops and trainingprograms

Linkage with GOs and otherNGOs

Defense

Preparing and training for post-disaster relief operation

Sharing training with civiladministration

Rescue

Workers

Preparing for response to disaster Developing skills to the best of

abilities Registering with local NGO or GO

as trained rescue worker

Fire fighting, controlling leakageof gases, epidemics and diseasecontrol, provision of food; water;medicine; clothes; temporary bridges, temporary roads; andtemporary shelter

Engineers

Developing insight into engineeringaspect of earthquake resistantstructures

Persuading clients to protect Designing earthquake resistant

structures

Seismic evaluation of building andits components

Improving earthquake resistance ofexisting buildings and infrastructure

facilities

Classifying damaged structures Demolition technique for structures

in a progressive collapse mode

Proposing choice of repair methodsand strengthening techniques

Urban

And Regional

Planners

Micro-zoning and vulnerabilitymapping

Population density optimization Protection strategies for infra-

structure facilities andtransportation

Learning from disaster and updatingplans

Doctors And

Paramedics

Developing national data onmedical resources

Categorizing nodes according toresources

Training allied professionals for preparedness and formulation of

preparedness module Linkage with international

organization for relief

Emergent mobilization of resources Filtering effected people according to

requirements and injuries

Epidemic control strategies

Strengthening understanding ofregional seismicity, collecting andanalyzing data and developing


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Researchers

And

Academicians

modules for mitigation

Developing guidelines for codes forlocal building materials andconstruction materials

Updating and transferringknowledge through mid-career

training programs for professionals Advising different agencies for

developing contingency plans

Assessing extent of damage Learning from disaster and

reconsidering research options

Preparing post-disaster rehabilitation plans and imparting updateinformation

REFERENCES

1. Yarar, R. Earthquake Behaviour of Rural Buildings in Turkey. The National Seminar onEarthquake Engineering, Turkish National Committee on Earthquake Engineering, Istanbul,Turkey, October, 1985, p. 82.

2.

Wasti, S.T., Sucuoglu, H. Rehabilitation of Moderately Damaged R/C Buildings after the 1

st

October 1995 Dinar Earthquake. Report No: METU/EERC 99-01, Earthquake EngineeringResearch Centre, Middle East Technical University Ankara, April 1999, p. 114.

3. Implications for Earthquake Risk Reduction in the United States from the Kocaelli, Turkey,Earthquake of August 17, 1999. U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1193, U.S. Department of theInterior and U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, USA, 22nd November 1999, p. 64.

4. Jain, S.K. Indian Earthquake: An overview. The Indian Concrete Journal, India, Vol.72, No.11,November 1998, pp. 555-561.

5.

Thakkar, S.K. Lessons from Bihar Earthquake. The Indian Concrete Journal, India, Vol.72,No.11, November 1998, pp. 563-569.

6. Rai, D.C. Lessons from the Jabalpur Earthquake. The Indian Concrete Journal, India, Vol.72,No.11, November 1998, pp. 571-576.

7. Paul, D.K. Lessons from Uttarkashi Earthquake. The Indian Concrete Journal, India, Vol.72,No.11, November 1998, pp. 581-589.

8. Marty, C.V.R., Sinha, R. The 1993 Killari Earthquake: Engineering lessons and challenges. TheIndian Concrete Journal, India, Vol.72, No.11, November 1998, pp. 591-601.

9. The Chi-Chi Taiwan Earthquake of September 21,1999 EERI Special Earthquake report,Earthquake Engineering Research Institutes Learning from Earthquake Project, NationalScience Foundation, U.S.A, December 1999, p. 17.


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10. Non-Engineered Construction in Earthquake Zones and Earthquake Mitigation with SpecialReference to Pakistan, Project Report, Department of Civil Engineering, NED University ofEngineering and Technology, Karachi Pakistan, May, 1999, p. 155.

11.Kazmi, A.H. Active Fault Systems in Pakistan. Geodynamics of Pakistan: Geological Survey ofPakistan, Quetta, p. 1979, p. 285.

12.Loya, A.R., Zaigham, N.A., and Dawood, M.H. Seismic Zoning of Karachi andRecommendation for Seismic Design of Buildings, published by Association of ConsultingEngineer, Pakistan and Karachi Building Control Authority, April 2000, p. 105.

13.Some Statistics of January 26, 2001 Earthquake for India. Newsletter, Cowasjee EarthquakeStudy Centre NED (CESNED), Department of Civil Engineering, NED University ofEngineering and Technology, Karachi, Pakistan, Vol.1, Issue 2, October 2001, p. 4.

14.Khan, A.S. Influence of Local Soil Conditions on Ground Response and Damage Pattern Due toEarthquake. Seminar on Earthquake 2001, NED University of Engineering and Technology,Karachi, Pakistan, April 2001.

15.Malik, J. N., Sohoni, P.S., Merh, S.S., and Karanth, R. V.. Proceeding of the InternationalSymposium and School on Active Faulting, Edited by Okumera, K., Goto, H. and Takada, K.,edition 2000.

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