consequential life cycle assessment/media/files/autosteel/great...1969 coca-cola company performs...

GDIS2017

Consequential Life Cycle Assessment …and Other Related Topics

Brandie M. Sebastian, LCACP

Steel Recycling Institute (part of SMDI/AISI)

#GDIS | #SteelMatters 2

Outline

• SMDI/SRI Sustainability Activities

• LCA 101

• Vehicle Life Cycle and CAFE Standards

• Automotive LCA Projects

• Summary


SMDI/SRI Sustainability Activities

• General

− Life cycle inventory (LCI) data

− Steelmaking footprint reduction

− Regional benchmarking

− LCA methodology research

• Sector-specific

− Automotive – Packaging

− Construction


Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)

• Standardized and

comprehensive method

• Evaluates potential

environmental and human

health impacts

• Applicable to a product,

material, process or service

throughout its life cycle

ISO 14040:2006 (en) – Environmental management – Life Cycle Assessment – Principles and Framework


History of LCA

1969 Coca-Cola Company performs first LCA

1970s LCA develops from energy analysis to a

comprehensive environmental burden analysis

1980s Full-fledged life cycle impact assessment

(LCIA) and life cycle costing models introduced

1990s ISO standards on LCA developed

21st century Social LCA and consequential LCA gain ground


Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) Data

• Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) - a compilation of inputs

and outputs, typically energy, water and material

flows


LCI Data – Cradle-to-Grave

M/E/H2O = Materials, Energy and Water

MR = Materials for Recovery (e.g., steel scrap)

W/CP = Wastes and Co-products


Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA)

Most commonly reported

Additional impacts:

• Human health toxicity

• Eco-toxicity

• Resource depletion (fossil fuel and

mineral)

• Land use change

• Biodiversity impacts/habitat

disruption http://continuingeducation.construction.com/


The Life Cycle of Vehicles

Image Source: WorldAutoSteel

Covered by EPA/NHTSA Regulations


Current Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy Regulations

• Purpose: To reduce consumption of fuels and reduce GHG

emissions

• Current regulations: Focused only on tailpipe (use phase)

• Mid-term Review:

− 2022-2025 requirements

− EPA / NHTSA / CARB

− Final: April 2018(?)


Contributors to Increased Fuel Economy

• Powertrain

technologies

• Electrification

technologies

• Aerodynamics

• Weight reduction

Chart Source: ArcelorMittal, Internal Presentation Interpreting NHTSA Volpe CAFE Compliance and Effects Model


Production Emissions for Automotive Materials

Cradle-to-Gate GHG Emissions from Primary Production

(in kg CO2e/kg of material)

Steel

Aluminum

Magnesium

Carbon FRP

19-42

1.9

20

8.9 – 16.5

21 - 36

Note: Steel, aluminum and magnesium values do not include finishing emissions. Carbon fiber reinforced plastic (Carbon FRP) automotive

parts are formed via an integrated process, which includes both production and finishing.

Sources: Aluminum Association, 2013; International Aluminum Association, 2013; Worldsteel, 2010; University of California Santa Barbara, 2017


Aluminum Industry Trends

Data Source: Aluminum Association, 2017; USGS, 2017; Statistics Canada, 2017

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Me

tric

To

ns

North American Aluminum Primary Production & Imports

U.S. Production

Canada Production

North America Production

North American Imports


Aluminum Industry Trends

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Jan-75 Jan-80 Jan-85 Jan-90 Jan-95 Jan-00 Jan-05 Jan-10 Jan-15

Tho

usa

nd

Met

ric

Ton

s

World Primary Aluminum Production

ROW Estimated Unreported

China Estimated Unreported

China

Gulf Cooperation Council

Oceania

East & Central Europe

West Europe

Asia (ex China)

South America

North America

Africa

Data Source: International Aluminium Institute, 2017


Greenhouse Gas Emission Tradeoffs

Chart Source: R. Geyer, GDIS 2016


Vehicle Life Cycle Assessment Study

• Purpose

− How important are material production emissions?

− Are there unintended GHG consequences due to

lightweighting vehicles when focusing only on the

use phase?

• Two-part approach

− Attributional LCA: Vehicle-to-vehicle comparisons

− Consequential LCA: Large-scale shift or decision


Attributional Life Cycle GHG and Energy Study

• Calculate total GHG emissions and energy demand of

vehicles lightweighted with AHSS and aluminum

− UCSB Automotive Materials Comparison Model v5

− Vehicles included: Mid-size Sedan, SUV, Pick-up Truck,

Mid-size HEV, Compact BEV

• Refine input parameters

− Current and conservative input parameters

− Sensitivity and Monte Carlo analyses

• Peer review by panel of LCA experts


Key Input Parameters

• Cradle-to-gate material production GHG emissions

(kg CO2eq/kg) and energy consumption (MJ/kg)

− Domestic production vs. imports

− Primary vs. secondary production

• Lifetime driving distance (km)

• Material replacement coefficients (kg/kg)

• Secondary mass reduction (% of primary mass reduction)

• Fuel reduction values (l/100km100kg)

• Finishing/stamping yields (%)

• Material recovery and recycling rates (%)


Preliminary Findings

Lightweighting with aluminum over AHSS:

• Significantly increased production emissions (~30-60%) for

all vehicle types

• Increased total life cycle GHG emissions in roughly 50% of

the cases tested…but only when using the most favorable

recycling methodology assumptions

• …In all other cases, the aluminum vehicles resulted in a net

increase in emissions vs. the AHSS vehicles


Preliminary Conclusion

There is no certainty tailpipe-only regulations will

result in a decrease in emissions from light vehicles

… and an increase is likely.


Consequential Life Cycle GHG Study

• Vehicle-to-vehicle comparisons

may not capture complete

environmental effects

• GHG-focused Excel model

developed by Dr. Roland Geyer

• Peer-review of model structure

and methodology complete

• Manuscript under review

Chart Source: Ducker Worldwide, 2015 North American Light Vehicle Aluminum Content Study



*Preliminary Results*


Summary

• Fuel economy targets becoming increasingly stringent

• Use of GHG-intensive lightweighting materials to help meet

these targets will:

− Always lead to higher GHG emissions initially

− Can result in higher total vehicle life cycle emissions

• Changes in aluminum import levels and increasing demand

point to even greater GHG consequences in the future

• Ensuring improvements in production phase emissions

while reducing driving phase emissions avoids unintended

consequences


For More Information

Mark A. Thimons

VP Sustainability

Steel Market Development

Institute 412.458.5814

[email protected]

Brandie M. Sebastian

LCA Manager

Steel Recycling Institute

412.458.5819

[email protected]

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