consumer confidence, concerns and spending … · consumer confidence ... nielsen global survey of...

C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E, C O N C E R N S A N D S P E N D I N G I N T E N T I O N S I N I R E L A N DQUARTER 1, 2014

2 IRELAND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

IRELAND’S CONSUMER CONFIDENCE UP 17 POINTS ON LAST YEAR

IRELANDConsumer confidence up 5 points at an index of 82 in Q1 2014. That’s a 17 point increase on Q1 2013

Recessionary mind-set down marginally at 86% (-1%pts versus Q4 2013)

32% are optimistic about future job prospects (+6%pts versus Q4 2013)

A significant 39% are optimistic about their Finances (-1%pts versus Q4 2013)

While 33% are ready to spend (+4%pts versus Q4 2013)

CONCERNS AND SPENDING INTENTIONS THIS QUARTER VS. LASTBiggest Concerns are Job Security (-2%pts), Increasing Utility Bills (+1%pts) and Debt (+2%pts)

75% say they have changed household spending in order to save (-3%pts)

Those with ‘no spare cash’ decreases to 26% (-2%pts). While those ‘paying off debts’ and ‘putting into savings’ increases to 24% and 34% respectively

A slight increase to 68% (+1%pt) for those ‘switching to cheaper grocery brands’

3IRELAND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company

GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REACHES PRE-RECESSION LEVELS Global consumer confidence returned to a pre-recession level with an index score of 96 in the first quarter—the highest score since first-quarter 2007, according to consumer confidence findings from Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and insights into what consumers watch and buy. The Nielsen consumer confidence index measures perceptions of local job prospects, personal finances and immediate spending intentions.

Regional consumer confidence was highest in Asia-Pacific with an index score of 106, a one-point increase from the previous quarter (Q4 2013) and a three-point increase from a year ago (Q1 2013). North America posted the largest quarterly increase of five points to reach the optimism baseline of 100—the highest level since 2007. The Middle East/Africa region increased four points to 94, and Europe rose two points to 75, compared to fourth-quarter 2013. Latin America reported the only quarterly regional consumer confidence decline, falling one point to 93.

WITH GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AT A SEVEN-YEAR HIGH, IT MARKS A SIGNIFICANT MILESTONE FOR THE LONGEST RECESSION SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION. A GLOBAL SENTIMENT MOVES TO ONE OF CAUTIOUS STABILITY. AS RECOVERY CONTINUES, SIGNS OF OPTIMISM ARE INCREASING, SAID DR. VENKATESH BALA, CHIEF ECONOMIST AT THE CAMBRIDGE GROUP, A PART OF NIELSEN.


GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY

60 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ1-2014 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

*Survey is based on respondents with Internet access. China survey results reflect a mixed methodology.

Index levels above and below 100 indicate degrees of optimism/pessimism.

Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence & Spending Intentions, Q1 2014

+6+2

+4+6

0

-1

-4

+10

+1

-1

+6

-5

0

+4

+2

+1

+2

-1

-1

0

-6

-2-6

+3+1

+11+8+4-4+4-2+5-4

-6+6

+40

-1

+3

+4

-1

-6

+1

+6

+3

0

+5

+3

+8

-7

+3

+8

-2+7

+2

+1

85 ISRAEL

86 LITHU

ANIA

86 M

EXICO 87

EGYPT 87 AUSTRIA

87 UNITED KINGDOM

SOUTH KOREA 51

89 AUSTRALIA

PORTUGAL 51

92 NORWAY

SERBIA 52

GREECE 53

92 MALAYSIA

HUNGARY 54

93 COLOMBIA

UKRAINE

56

98 CHILE

FRANCE 59

99 CANADA

SPAIN 61

99 PAKISTAN

ROMANIA 67

99 VIETNAM

FINLAND 67

99 SINGAPORE

SLOVAKIA 68 99 GERMANYBULGARIA 68 100 NEW ZEALAND

POLAND 70

100 DENMARK

ARGENTINA 71

100 UNITED STATES

BELGIUM 74

101 PERU

CZECH REPUBLIC 75

102 SAUDI ARABIA

TAIWAN 76

104 SWITZERLAND

NETHERLANDS 76

106 BRAZIL

LATVIA

76

108 THAILAND

VENEZUELA 7

8

111 C

HINA

ESTONIA

79

111

HONG KONG

TURKE

Y

81

114

UNITED A

RAB EM

IRATE

S

JAPA

N

81

116

PHIL

IPPI

NES

SOUT

H A

FRIC

A

82

121

IN

DIA

IREL

AND

8

2SW

EDEN

83

RUSS

IA

83

+4

SLOVENIA

48

0

124

IN

DO

NES

IA

IND

EX

COU

NTR

Y

LESS

CONFIDENT

MORE CONFIDENT+1

ITALY45

+1

CROATIA

45

NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA EUROPE AFRICA, MIDDLE EAST ASIA-PACIFIC

96 GLOBAL

AVERAGE( +2 change from Q4-2013 )

INDEXES ABOVE 100 INDICATE OPTIMISM


GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY

60 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ1-2014 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

EUROPE’S RECOVERY IS FRAGILE, BUT PROGRESSINGConsumer confidence in Europe increased in 21 of 32 markets in the first quarter, with the biggest increases from some of the region’s lowest index performers. Confidence in France (59) and Greece (53) increased eight index points each, and Portugal (51) and Spain (61) increased seven and three points, respectively, compared to fourth-quarter 2013. Consumer confidence in Germany remained robust with a score of 99, an increase of four points from the previous quarter and the country’s highest index score recorded (since Nielsen began measuring consumer confidence in 2005).

Future job prospects in Europe increased in 24 of 32 markets. The most notable job optimism increases came from Switzerland, up 8 percentage points; Austria, Ireland, Greece and Estonia, up 6 percentage points each; Germany and France up 5 percentage points each; and the UK, Russia, Finland and Hungary up 4 percentage points each, compared to fourth-quarter 2013. Discretionary spending, however, remained virtually flat across all spending categories measured in the first quarter.

“In the UK, consumer confidence rose to its highest level in six years, boosted by improving sentiment for job prospects,” said Chris Morley, managing director, Nielsen UK and Ireland. “While the macroeconomic situation continues to recover, optimism has not yet filtered through to people’s personal finances. There has been only a minor improvement in British consumers’ willingness to spend, and 1 in 4 still reports having no spare cash.”

Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence & Spending Intentions, Q1 2014

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX IN EUROPE

Q1 2014(CIRCLES DENOTE INDEX DIFFERENCE FROM Q4 2013)

Switzerland

France

Greece

Portugal

Estonia

Bulgaria

Ireland

Romania

Germany

Lithuania

Russia

Czech Republic

Slovenia

United Kingdom

Slovakia

Spain

Hungary

Austria

Poland

Croatia

Italy

Latvia

Finland

Netherlands

Belgium

Norway

Sweden

Serbia

Israel

Denmark

Turkey

Ukraine

104 |

59 |

53 |

51 |

79 |

68 |

82 |

67 |

99 |

86 |

83 |

75 |

48 |

87 |

68 |

61 |

54 |

87 |

70 |

45 |

45 |

76 |

67 |

76 |

74 |

92 |

83 |

82 |

85 |

100 |

81 |

56 |

10

8

8

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

1

1

1

1

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

-2

-4

-5

-6

-7

THE LONG ROAD TO RECOVERY HAS BEGUN IN KEY MARKETS, SUCH AS FRANCE, ITALY AND SPAIN, SAID DR. BALA. GERMANY CONTINUES TO PERFORM WELL, REPORTING THE LOWEST UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN THE EURO ZONE, AND RECOVERY IN THE U.K. CONTINUES TO GATHER MOMENTUM.


IRELAND’S CONSUMER CONFIDENCE BOOSTED YET AGAINIreland’s consumer confidence increased again this quarter reaching an index of 82. This is five points higher than the previous quarter (Q4 2013) and a significant seventeen points higher than the same period last year. This latest wave of research comes on the back of Ireland’s exit from the EU/IMF aid programme and the country’s full return to sovereign debt markets for the first time since the euro-region’s crisis began in 2009. Reaching such a significant milestone is sure to have had a positive impact on the nation’s optimism.

IRELAND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE Q1 2014

IRELAND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX TREND 2005-2014 (VERSUS GLOBAL, EU, UK, FRANCE AND USA)

Jun-

05

Dec

-05

Jun-

06

Dec

-06

Jun-

07

Dec

-07

Jun-

08

Dec

-08

Jun-

09

Dec

-09

Q1 2

010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2010

Q1 2

011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

2011

Q1 2

012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2012

Q1 2

013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

Q4

2013

Q4

2013

GLOBAL GB IRELAND FRANCE USA

120130

110100908070605040

113 112

118 117

109 108

96

77

63 66 67 68 68

65 61

64 64 60

64 64 67 65 65

70 69

77 82

IRELAND NOW RANKS 28TH MOST PESSIMISTIC GLOBALLY IN Q1 2014

CELTIC TIGER DAYS

Source: Nielsen Global Online Survey Q1 2014


GLOBAL

MORE POSITIVITY ON JOB PROSPECTS AND READINESS TO SPENDEncouraging news also as the nation’s unemployment rate continues to fall and is at its lowest rate in more than four years, only marginally above the euro zone average. Ireland was among the most notable job optimism increases on the latest results, along with Switzerland, Austria, Greece and Estonia. In Ireland, those who felt job prospects were good or excellent increased six percentage points on the previous quarter to 32%.

Meanwhile those who feel it is a good time to buy the things they need and want also increased to 33% (up four percentage points), now above the EU average of 29%.

Q. CONSIDERING THE COST OF THINGS TODAY AND YOUR OWN PERSONAL FINANCES, WOULD YOU SAY AT THIS MOMENT THE TIME TO BUY THE THINGS YOU WANT AND NEED IS...

READINESS TO SPEND


39% 33%

29% 36%

6%3%

68%

2%

IRELAND

UK

GOOD / EXCELLENT

BAD / NOT SO GOOD

DON’T KNOW

EU

65%

58%

3%

58%


OUR MAJOR CONCERNS

Q. WHAT IS YOUR BIGGEST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SIX MONTHS?’ IRELAND Q1 2014 RESULTS

JOB SECURITY REMAINS A KEY CONCERNDespite this positivity we still have our worries and job security continues to top the list with 17% saying this is their top concern. This is followed in importance by increasing utility bills (14%) and debt at 13%. Work/life balance increased significantly on our list of concerns this quarter with 9% saying it is their biggest concern (compared to 5% in the previous quarter).

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

JOB SECURITY

INCREASING UTILITY BILLS

DEBT

THE ECONOMY

HEALTH

WORK/LIFE BALANCE

CHILDREN’S EDUCATION AND/OR WELFARE

PARENT’S WELFARE AND HAPPINESS

INCREASING FUEL PRICES

CRIME

INCREASING FOOD PRICES


NO SPARE CASH

Q. ONCE YOU HAVE COVERED YOUR ESSENTIAL LIVING EXPENSES, WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS BEST DESCRIBES WHAT YOU DO WITH YOUR SPARE CASH?

THIS CHART RELATES TO THE ANSWER OF ‘I HAVE NO SPARE CASH’

SAVING STRATEGIES CONTINUE TO BE ENTRENCHEDLittle change was recorded on household saving strategies this quarter with 75% of Irish respondents saying they have changed their spending habits to save (down three percentage points) compared to the European average of 62%. Ireland continues to rank highly in terms of those ‘switching to cheaper grocery brands’ at 68% (the European average is 50%) and ‘cut down/buy cheaper brands of alcohol’ at 36% (the European average is 21%). While 26% say they have no spare cash once essential living expenses are covered.

% SAYING THEY HAVE NO SPARE CASH

EU A

VERA

GE

HU

NG

ARY

NET

HER

LAN

DS

GRE

ECE

PORT

UG

AL

FIN

LAN

D

IREL

AND

ITAL

Y

LATV

IA

ROM

ANIA

SPAI

N

UK

BELG

IUM

FRAN

CE

DEN

MAR

K

LITH

UAN

IA

POLA

ND

GER

MAN

Y

AUST

RIA

NO

RWAY

21%

33% 33% 32% 31%

28%26% 26% 26% 26%

26% 25%24%

23%

19% 19% 19%18%

14%13%



RECESSIONARY MIND-SET CONTINUES ITS SLOW DECLINEThis quarter we see another slight decline in the numbers feeling that Ireland is still in a recession with 86% saying this is the case (down one percentage point on Q4 2013). Furthermore, on the latest results 62% say that we will still be in a recession in twelve months time, this is four percentage points lower than the previous quarter.

HOUSEHOLD SAVING STRATEGIES

DOMESTICSwitch to Cheaper Grocery Brands 68% (+1)

Save on Gas & Electricity 65% (+4)

Cut down on Telephone Expenses 48% (+8)

Delay Upgrading PC or Mobile 41% (+3)

Look for Better Deals on Loans etc. 38% (+1)

Delay Replacing HHLD items 37% (-4)

LIFESTYLESpend Less on New Clothes 67% (-)

Cut down on Take-Aways 63% (+11)

Cut down on OOH Entertainment 57% (+5)

Cut down on Holidays/Breaks 46% (-)

Use my Car less often 36% (-)

Cut Down /buy Cheaper Brands of Alcohol 36% (+6)

Cut down on At-Home Entertaining 27% (+2)

Source: Nielsen Global Online Survey - Ireland Results Q1 2014

“Q. COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST YEAR, WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING ACTIONS HAVE YOU TAKEN IN ORDER TO SAVE ON HOUSEHOLD EXPENSES? Q1 2014 IRELAND

(% CHG IS VERSUS Q4 2013)


RECESSIONARY SENTIMENT Q1 2014

PERCENT GLOBALLY SAYING THE COUNTRY IS IN A RECESSION


69%

70%

EUROPE

UK

FRANCE

GERMANY

GLOBAL86%

IRELAND

SAY WE ARE STILL INRECESSION

55%

84%

36%

ABOUT NIELSEN

Nielsen Holdings N.V. (NYSE: NLSN) is a global information and

measurement company with leading market positions in marketing

and consumer information, television and other media measurement,

online intelligence and mobile measurement. Nielsen has a presence

in approximately 100 countries, with headquarters in New York, USA

and Diemen, the Netherlands.

For more information, visit www.nielsen.com.

Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company. All rights reserved. Nielsen

and the Nielsen logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of

CZT/ACN Trademarks, L.L.C. Other product and service names are

trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective companies.

14/7819

ABOUT THE NIELSEN GLOBAL SURVEY The Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending

Intentions was conducted Feb. 17 – March 7, 2014 and polled

more than 30,000 online consumers in 60 countries throughout

Asia-Pacific, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, Africa and

North America. The sample has quotas based on age and sex for

each country based on its Internet users, and is weighted to be

representative of Internet consumers. It has a margin of error of

±0.6 percent. This Nielsen survey is based only on the behaviour of

respondents with online access. Internet penetration rates vary by

country. Nielsen uses a minimum reporting standard of 60 percent

Internet penetration or an online population of 10 million for survey

inclusion. The China Consumer Confidence Index is compiled from

a separate mixed methodology survey among 3,500 respondents

in China. The sub- Saharan African countries in this study are

compiled from a separate mobile methodology survey among 1,600

respondents in Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria. The Nielsen Global

Survey, which includes the Global Consumer Confidence Index, was

established in 2005.

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