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Consumer Index

Tel: +44 20 8967 [email protected]

Western and Northern Europe

Contents

Austria France Germany GB Greece* Ireland Italy Netherlands Portugal Scandinavia Spain

FMCG • • • • • • • • • • •Fresh • • • • – • • • • • •Chilled • • • • • • • • • • •Packaged • • • • • • • • • • •Frozen • • • • • • • • • • •Alcohol • • • • • • – • • – •Soft Drinks • • • • • • • • • • •Personal Care • • • • • • • • • • •Home Care • • • • • • • • • • •Pet Foods • • • • – • • • • • –

Total Europe – Summary 1

Austria 2

France 3

Germany 4

Great Britain 5

Greece 6

Ireland 7

Italy 8

Netherlands 9

Portugal 10

Scandinavia 11

Spain 12

Definitions 13

Sources and methodology 14

FMCG Consumer Dashboard% Change Q2 2011 vs Q2 2010

• Increase of more than 0.5%

• Decrease of more than 0.5%

• Increase/decrease of less than 0.5%

– Category not covered

* Greece: Chilled Food = Dairy products only; Home and Personal Care are one single category

Welcome to the Q2 2011 edition of Consumer Index. We hope you find it interesting. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions or comments.

Consumer Index


supers

hypers

discounts

drugstore

other

austria

france

germany

great britain

greece

ireland

italy

netherlands

portugal

scandinavia

spain

In Q2, FMCG for total Austria has declined when compared to the same period last year. Although households spent more money per trip, the average amount per household spent in Q2 is lower than the year before. This is due to the decline in purchase frequency as consumers are shopping around less.

Only Hypermarkets have a positive growth in share of FMCG, while all other formats show a negative development in Q2. In discounters Lidl still shows growth, Aldi and Zielpunkt are losing market share. The difficult situation of drug stores and other stores is ongoing. Both formats have decreased in value and market share. Other stores in Q2 2010 had a FMCG market share of 13%, now it is only 12.3%.

Private label share slightly increased to 24.8%. This is not because of discounters private labels but because Supermarkets and Hypermarkets have increased their focus on their own private labels. The value share of Aldi private labels decreased mainly because Aldi started to focus on brands (In June 2011 even Red Bull was listed at Aldi).

GDP (Value) 3.4%

Rate of Food Inflation (Value) 4.1%

Rate of Unemployment -8.9%

Frequency of FMCG Purchase -5.2%

Average FMCG basket size (Value) 1.1%

7.1 7.2 7.1

20.7 21.4 21.5

24.9 24.2 24.2

13.7 13.0 12.3

33.5 34.1 34.9

Trade Channels

MAT Q2 09 MAT Q2 10 MAT Q2 11

Category Trends

Trade Channel Trends

Q2 2011 Key Indicators Year on Year % Change

Supers Discounters

Hypers

Other

Drug Store

Austria Q2 2011

Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG

Fresh

Chilled

Packaged

Frozen

Alcohol

Soft Drinks

Personal Care

Home Care

Pet Foods

Q2 2011 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG

Supers

Hypers

Discounters

Drugstores

Other

0

-2

-2

-3

-2

-5

Q2 2011

-7

-2

-2

-6

0

4

-8

-2

-4

-7

Consumer Index


supers

hypers

discounts

drugstore

other

austria

france

germany

great britain

greece

ireland

italy

netherlands

portugal

scandinavia

spain

The FMCG market showed moderate growth in the latest quarter, with the Soft Drinks sector (including mineral waters) among the best performing product segments. Favourable weather contributed significantly to the growth in the sector. Grocery and frozen also experienced stronger than average growth at +5.1% and +4.3% respectively. The fresh produce sector (fish, meats, fruit and vegetables) continues to suffer with a value trend of -7.5% in the latest quarter.

The French household consumption of Private Label products grew faster than in the previous quarters at +4.8%. However Private Label value share decreased by -0.6pt compared to the previous quarter mainly due to the trends for Value Private Label.

Hypermarkets continue their progression thanks to Leclerc, which continues to perform strongly alongside Auchan. The Drive format is a success and benefits retailers who have adopted it. Hard Discounter channel remains stable although we see consumers showing less interest in this format as the price difference between Hyper and Supermarkets continues to evolve.

GDP (Value) 1.7%



Frequency of FMCG Purchase 0.1%


5.7 5.7 5.7

27.8 27.1 26.3

5.5 5.2 5.2

16.8 16.9 17.4

44.3 45.1 45.5

Trade Channels


Category Trends



Hypers Soft Discounters

Supers

Other

Hard Discounters

France Q2 2011

Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG

Fresh

Chilled

Packaged

Frozen

Alcohol

Soft Drinks

Personal Care

Home Care

Pet Foods

Q2 2011 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG

Supers

Hypers

Soft Discounters

Hard Discounters

Other

2

1

1

1

5

-1

Q2 2011

4

1

-7

4

5

3

4

-2

11

0

Consumer Index


supers

hypers

discounts

drugstore

other

austria

france

germany

great britain

greece

ireland

italy

netherlands

portugal

scandinavia

spain

German households spent on average 3.2% more in Q2 when compared to the same period a year ago. The increase in spend on food has been driven partly by price increases due to an increase in price of raw commodities such as sugar, coffee and grain. Fresh food however has seen a converse trend with Germans buying less fresh produce and paying less for it.

The Household Care and Personal Care categories are experiencing strong competition in terms of prices in Drugstores, whilst Hypermarkets have introduced further price promotions for these categories.

All trade channels have experienced growth this quarter when compared to the same period last year, with the largest annualised growth seen in Supermarkets.

The recent positive trend in Hypermarkets has been driven by the introduction of heavy price promotions in the Household and Personal Care categories that have coaxed shoppers in store where they have purchased other categories also. Despite seeing growth this quarter, Hypermarket activity has negatively impacted the performance of Discounters who have experienced an average price increase in 2011 – thus increasingly losing their reputation of being the best choice in terms of value for money.

GDP (Value) 4.4%





38.1 38.2 38.5

20.0 19.8 19.821.8 21.5 21.1

20.1 20.4 20.7

Trade Channels


Category Trends



Hypers Discounters

Supers Ohter

Germany Q2 2011

Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG

Fresh

Chilled

Packaged

Frozen

Alcohol

Soft Drinks

Personal Care

Home Care

Pet Foods

Q2 2011 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG

Hypers

Supers

Discounters

Other

4

3

3

3

2

Q2 2011

5

3

1

7

4

3

-3

-2

8

-1

Consumer Index


supers

hypers

discounts

drugstore

other

austria

france

germany

great britain

greece

ireland

italy

netherlands

portugal

scandinavia

spain

Despite the post-wedding and Easter slump in growth, there has been growth in the FMCG market in the latest quarter compared with the same period last year, especially true of Packaged Grocery, Frozen Food and Soft Drinks.

Two different trends were apparent in the FMCG market. The first suggested by the performance of Aldi and Lidl both posting strong double digit growth, together representing around 6% of the market. This provides evidence for the idea that households try to continue to manage their budget, particularly as inflation has crept up and it is now thought it might exceed 5% in 2011. At the same time, Waitrose was the next big winner with growth of 9%, thus increasing its share of the FMCG market.

Of the top four retailers, Morrisons posted the best performance, enjoying a slight increase in share.

GDP (Value) n/a


Rate of Unemployment 0%



14.9 14.5 14.4

6.7 6.6 6.72.0 1.7 1.6

1.5 1.4 1.33.2 3.1 3.0

5.1 4.4 4.7

66.8 68.3 68.3

Trade Channels


Category Trends



Great Britain Q2 2011

Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG

Fresh

Chilled

Packaged

Frozen

Alcohol

Soft Drinks

Personal Care

Home Care

Pet Foods

Q2 2011 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG

Top 4

Other Multiples

Discounters

Drugsgtores

Independent/ Symbol

Specialists

Other

3

5

4

17

2

2

-4

7

Q2 2011

6

5

2

4

8

4

4

3

6

3

Top 4 Drugstores

Other Multiples

Specialists

Independent/Symbol

Other

Discounters

Consumer Index


greece

More positive FMCG trends for in home consumption were evident in Greece during the second quarter of the year. Growth is driven by food while non food categories continue to suffer heavily. Change in the lifestyle of Greeks (less travelling, going out, take away meals) has affected positively the in home purchasing of food.

Overall shoppers are carrying out more but smaller shopping trips. Down trading is still the main trend for FMCG and this is mainly expressed via shifting towards private label brands and cheaper branded products. PL is growing within both discounters and non discounters.

Discounter performance is impacted by Aldi’s withdrawal from the Greek market and Dia’s closing most of its stores. At the same time Lidl continues to grow fast.

GDP (Value) -4.0%


Rate of Unemployment n/a

Frequency of FMCG Purchase 4.5

Average FMCG basket size (Value) -2.6

14.4 15.2 15.2

6.7 5.7 6.1

78.9 79.1 78.8

Trade Channels


Category Trends



Supers Other

Discounters

Greece Q2 2011

Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG

Chilled

Packaged

Frozen

Alcohol

Soft Drinks

Personal Care

Home Care

Q2 2011 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG

Supers

Discounters

Other

-3

2

4

-7

Q2 2011

9

2

1

5

-1

1

-11

-3

Consumer Index


supers

hypers

discounts

drugstore

other

austria

france

germany

great britain

greece

ireland

italy

netherlands

portugal

scandinavia

spain

The latest quarter is showing a slowdown in grocery market growth to below 1% as ‘savvy shopping’ places value on top of consumers’ agenda. Shoppers are buying fewer groceries to counter inflation or ‘trading down’ to cheaper, essential products and switching to discount retailers.

With a focus on thrift driving movements, the German discounters reap the benefits. Both Aldi and Lidl post significant sales growth of 27.7% and 10.6% respectively with the discount retailers outperforming the market. Aldi increased its share from 3.4% last year to 4.3% and Lidl improving on last year’s 5.6% share to secure 6.1% of the market.

Lidl’s surge in growth has now lifted its share to near equal that of Superquinn at 6.2%. In Q3 we should for the first time see a discounter overtake a ‘traditional’ Big 4 player. Aldi’s phenomenal growth has also narrowed the share gap between the retailer and Lidl, from 2.2 percentage points from growth last year to just 1.8 percentage points this year – establishing Aldi as a further challenger to Superquinn.

Elsewhere, Dunnes & Tesco post only slight sales growth, of 0.3% and 1.6% respectively. SuperValu has felt the pressure this period, posting negative sales growth of nearly 1% and dropping market share to 19.7% compared with 20% last year.

GDP (Value) 2.3%


Rate of Unemployment 4.4%


Average FMCG basket size (Value) -2.3%

7.8 8.8 9.8

5.9 5.6 5.20.9 0.8 0.85.7 5.3 5.2

1.6 1.4 1.4

1.1 1.1 1.077.0 76.9 76.6

Trade Channels


Category Trends



Ireland Q2 2011

Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG

Fresh

Chilled

Packaged

Frozen

Alcohol

Soft Drinks

Personal Care

Home Care

Pet Foods

Q2 2011 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG

Top 4

Other Multiples

Discounters

Chemists and Drugstores

Independent/ Symbol

Specialists

Other

Q2 2011

Top 4 Drugstores

Other Multiples

Specialists

Independent/Symbol

Other

Discounters

-5

1

0

16

-4

-2

2

-2

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

ireland

1

1

0

5

-4

-2

0

-2

-3

-5

Consumer Index


GDP (Value) 1.8%


Rate of Unemployment n/a%



Italy Q2 2011

Category Trends

Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG

Fresh

Chilled

Packaged

Frozen

Soft Drinks

Personal Care

Home Care

Pet Foods

Q2 2011

Total FMCG expenditure has increased year on year in Italy for Q2 2011. This increase is attributable in part to increased prices and inflation as well as a later Easter. Food (Fresh, Chilled and Frozen) has driven the growth, whilst a warmer May contributed to increased sales of Beverages and Ice Cream.

Personal Care and Home care have recovered their performance this quarter (although Home Care is still down year on year). In these categories, Modern Trade channels are suffering the most due to strong competition with specialist stores.

Trade Channel shares have showed little change this quarter whilst shopping behaviour has begun to stabilise. Time will tell what impact increasing fiscal pressure will have on this.

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10

italy

3

2

3

4

3

1

1

10

-1

3

3

3

1

3

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10

italy

3

2

3

4

3

1

1

10

-1

3

3

3

1

3

Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG

Hypers

Supers

Discounters

Other


Q2 2011

supers

hypers

discounts

drugstore

other

austria

france

germany

great britain

greece

ireland

italy

netherlands

portugal

scandinavia

spain

31.2

8.78.6 8.9

30.0

14.8

30.3

14.9 14.9

45.4 46.2 46.2

Trade Channels

Hypers Discounters

Supers Other


Consumer Index


supers

hypers

discounts

drugstore

other

austria

france

germany

great britain

greece

ireland

italy

netherlands

portugal

scandinavia

spain

We see an increase in the total FMCG market in Q2. This is largely due to the timing of Easter but we have seen more visits per buyer and the average basket size in terms of value has also increased. The Easter effect is visible on categories like sweet cooking ingredients, confectionery, packet breakfast foods and bakery products and less so on frozen foods. The increase in Fresh Foods can be explained by the increase in price of fruit and vegetables. The prices of summer fruit were especially high this year.

The hard discounters (Aldi and Lidl) are showing an increase in the second quarter. This is completely due to Lidl that saw more buyers with a higher average spend per shopper. Discounters and Lidl specifically, extended their attention to fresh products and more premium private label ranges.

The decrease in confidence in the economy has put the market share of “other channels” under pressure. Customers chose hard discounters or supermarkets as they traded down from specialist shops. Shopper numbers are still declining especially within the traditional specialist shops, bakers, butchers and greengrocers.

The market share of the Supers channel is stable on annualised basis. We still see a continuous improvement of the position of Albert Heijn.

GDP (Value) 2.1%





15.8

13.413.6 13.7

14.915.2

70.6 71.4 71.4

Trade Channels


Category Trends



Supers Others

Hard Discounters

Netherlands Q2 2011

Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG

Fresh

Chilled

Packaged

Frozen

Alcohol

Soft Drinks

Personal Care

Home Care

Pet Foods

Q2 2011 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG

Supers

Hard Discounters

Other

7

4

4

3

Q2 2011

1

1

4

6

4

6

-3

3

6

1

Consumer Index


portugal

GDP (Value) 1.6%





Portugal Q2 2011

17.1

10.16.5

9.56.0

65.9

16.4 16.2

67.068.0

8.98.1

Trade Channels


Hypers/Supers Other

Discounters Traditionals

Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG

Fresh

Chilled

Packaged

Frozen

Alcohol

Soft Drinks

Personal Care

Home Care

Pet Foods

Category Trends


Q2 2011 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG

Hyper/Super

Discounters

Traditionals

Others

1

4

-5

-5

-9

Q2 2011

Food categories are growing due to increasing in-home consumption, which is linked to unstable economic conditions faced by the Portuguese economy. There were important Private Label developments in categories where consumers traditionally prefer national brands. Pingo Doce launched baby yoghurts and Continente launched transition milk powder products as well as re-launching its own beauty brand (MyLabel) in the feminine segment and at the same time widening the range offered in the male segment. This development of Continente own brand resulted in strong growth for some beauty PL ranges such as hair hydration and care (383%), hair styling (40.4%) and body care (32.2%).

Retail sector was very dynamic in this period. Retailers have invested strongly in the development of their brand equity and promoting the availability of domestically manufactured products. Pingo Doce (Jerónimo Martins), which until now has not been engaged in promotional activity started running promotions in partnerships with national brands. Continente reinforced their market leadership and after the transition of all Modelo stores to the Continente brand (both part of Sonae group) has now reached 34.3% share of the market. Pingo Doce, the second most important retailer in Portugal, has a market share of 17%. These two retailers continue to widen the gap between other competitors as result of a successful brand building strategy.


-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.52.0

2.53.0

3.54.0

portugal

1

1

-1

0

1

4

-2

3

1

1

1

Consumer Index


GDP (Value) 2.4%





Scandinavia (Denmark – Sweden – Norway) Q2 2011

Trade Channels


Hypers Discounters

Supers Others

Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG

Fresh

Chilled

Packaged

Frozen

Soft Drinks

Personal Care

Home Care

Pet Foods

Category Trends


Q2 2011 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG

Hypers

Supers

Discounters

Others

5

5

1

5

9

Q2 2011

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10

italy

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

ireland

-3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.50.0

0.5 1.0

portugal

-5 0 5 10 15 20

scaninavia

0 12 3 4 5 6 7 8

spain

5

4

-2

7

3

0

3

16

-1

Total FMCG spend in Scandinavia is significantly up vs the same period last year.

The increase is driven by soft drinks and packaged groceries primarily, but also fresh foods and chilled foods have grown in spend compared to Q2 2010.

Over the past few years Discounters have increased their share of total FMCG at a rate of 0.5% to 1% per year and this has continued into the latest period. The discounter share of total FMCG fluctuates between countries in Scandinavia, in Sweden discounters have 16% share, Denmark 30% and 40% in Norway.

However, the prescence of hard discounters in Scandinavia is very low. In Denmark Aldi and Lidl together have a share of 5% of total FMCG and this is the highest of all the countries.

In all three markets the battle between the channels and retailers is intense and one of the main problems is how to solve the “meal solution” challenge in a way that attracts the shoppers in 2011.


scandinavia

22.2 16.2

33.328.3

22.5 17.0

31.828.7

23.0 16.7

30.829.4

Consumer Index


GDP (Value) 0.2%





Spain Q2 2011

supers

hypers

discounts

drugstore

other

austria

france

germany

great britain

greece

ireland

italy

netherlands

portugal

scandinavia

spain

73.2

34.8 32.8

38.1

15.3

3.27.2 7.4

3.7

40.141.9

36.514.7 14.2

Trade Channels


Hypers Hard Discounters

Supers

Other

Soft Discounters

Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG

Fresh

Chilled

Packaged

Frozen

Alcohol

Soft Drinks

Personal Care

Home Care

Category Trends


Q2 2011 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG

Hypers

Supers

Hard Discounters

Soft Discounters

Others

5

3

0

11

2

2

Q2 2011

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10

italy

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

ireland

-3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.50.0

0.5 1.0

portugal

-5 0 5 10 15 20

scaninavia

0 12 3 4 5 6 7 8

spain

3

2

8

3

3

4

1

1

1

The FMCG sector recovers growth in both value and volume after experiencing negative growth in many of the preceding quarters. This growth is a result of fresh and dairy products which have seen an increase in volume, mainly due to a decrease in price.

Spanish consumers remain highly sensitive to price and downtrading is still used to manage their budget.

Personal care continues to grow driven by premium brands’ new launches and also by Mercadona’s increasing support for premium brands in key categories like shampoo, facial care, shaving and decorative cosmetics.

Crisis shopping habits remain and retailers who focus on price over perform versus their competitors. Private Label keeps growing in the food market, but has slowed down in the non-food sector, especially in personal care sectors.


Consumer Index


DefinitionsCATEGORIES UNIVERSE:FMCG: Fast Moving Consumer Goods (includes foods, personal care and home care; excludes clothes, white goods etc...) Total FMCG is not necessarily the sum of the categories shown below it.

Categories:• Fresh Foods: fresh fish, fresh meat, fresh poultry/game, fresh fruit, vegetables, salads• Chilled Foods: chilled deli products, chilled dairy products, chilled bakery products• Packaged Grocery: bread, biscuits, canned goods, hot beverages, packet breakfast, pickles, sauces, condiments,

savoury carbohydrates and snacks, home cooking ingredients, take home confectionery and savouries• Soft Drinks: carbonated soft drinks, chilled drinks and mineral water• Home Care: softeners, detergents and rinse conditioners• Personal Care: bathroom toiletries, hair care, healthcare, oral care, other toiletries

TRADE CHANNEL DEFINITIONS:

Hypermarkets Supermarkets Hard Discounters Soft Discounters Others

Austria Selling area > 2000m2 (excluding hard discounters)

Selling area from 400m2 to 2000m2

Hofer, Lidl Penny, Plus, Zielpunkt

Specialists such as pharmacies, butchers, bakeries, shmongers, etc.

France Selling area > 2500m2 Selling area : 400m2 to 2500m2 (excluding hard discounters)

Lidl, Aldi, Norma, Colruyt

Ed, Leader Price, Netto, Le Mutant

Great Britain Top 4 multiples: Tesco, Asda, Sainsbury’s, Morrison Lidl, Aldi no soft discounters

Germany Small hypermarkets: 800m2 - 1500m2 Medium hypermarkets: 1500m2 - 5000m2 Large hypermarkets: > 5000m2

Selling area from 400m2 to 800m2

Aldi, Lidl, Norma Penny, Plus, Netto

Greece Group Carrefour, Sklavenitis, AB-Vasilopoulos, Veropoulos (Spar), Galaksias, Atlantik, Masoutis, My Market, Arvanitidis, Other

Dia, Lidl, Aldi

Ireland no hypermarkets Typical multiple (no hypermarkets in this country)

Aldi, Lidl no soft discounters

Italy Selling area > 2500m2 Assortment must include Grocery, white and brown Domestic Appliances, Clothing and Footwear.

Selling area : 400m2 to 2500m2 (excluding hard discounters)

Lidl, Eurospar, Dico, Penny

Netherlands no hypermarkets All retailers excluding hard discounters hard discounters

Aldi, Lidl no soft discounters

Portugal Selling area > 2500m2 Selling area < 2500m2 Lidl, Minipreco no soft discounters

Scandinavia Selling area > 2500m3 Sellin area from 450m2 to 2550m2

Aldi, Lidl Netto, Willys, Rema 1000, Coma, Alta, Kiwi, Coop Prix

Spain Selling area > 2500m4 Selling area : 400m2 to 2500m2 (excluding hard discounters)

Aldi, Lidl, Plus, Familia (Eroski group)

Dia, Maxi Dia, Dia Market

Consumer Index


METHODOLOGY:

• A consumer panel is a permanent, syndicated and representative sample of consumers, who provide ongoing details of the fast moving consumer goods they purchase. Using the scanning methodology, each panel member records the details of every item they purchase.

• Sample sizes in number of households: Austria: 2,800; GB: 25,000; Germany: 30,000; Greece: 1,250; France: 20,000; Ireland: 3,650 (3,000 Republic + 650 N.I); Italy: 8,000; Portugal: 4,000; Spain: 12,000; Netherlands: 10,000; Sweden: 3,000; Denmark: 3,000.

• Category, channel data and Average Basket size data are based on local currency (except Scandinavia which is provided in Euro).

• Other value indicators are based on Euro.

KEY INDICATORS :

Panel data indicators

• Frequency of FMCG purchase: Frequency of FMCG purchase during the quarter compared with the same quarter the previous year.

• FMCG Average Basket Size: Average amount spent per trip in FMCG during the quarter compared with the same quarter the previous year.

Eurostat data indicators:

• Food price index: Harmonized Indices of Consumer Prices (HICPs) are produced and published using a common index reference period (2005=100).

• Unemployment: Unemployed persons comprise persons aged 15 to 74 who were without work during the reference week, were currently available for work and were either actively seeking work in the past four weeks or had already found a job to start within the next three months.

• Constant Price GDP (based on Euro currency): Gross domestic product (GDP) at market prices is the final result of the production activity of resident producer units (ESA 1995, 8.89). It is defined as the value of all goods and services produced less the value of any goods or services used in their creation. Data are calculated as chain-linked volumes (i.e. data at previous year’s prices, linked over the years via appropriate growth rates). Growth rates with respect to the previous quarter (Q/Q-1) are calculated from calendar and seasonally adjusted figures while growth rates with respect to the same quarter of the previous year (Q/Q-4) are calculated from raw data.

Sources & Methodology

KEY COUNTRY FACTS:

Source: CIA World Fact Book

Country Individual Population (in

000’s)

Number Of Households (in

000’s)

GDP per Capita (2010 est.)

Austria 8,217 3,500 $40,400

Denmark 5,529 2,500 $36,700

France 65,312 26,600 $33,300

Germany 81,471 38,500 $35,900

Great Britain 62,698 25,400 $35,100

Greece 10,737 $32,100

Ireland 4,670 2,300 $37,700

Italy 61,016 21,700 $30,700

Netherlands 16,847 7,200 $40,500

Portugal 10,760 3,800 $23,000

Spain 46,754 16,300 $29,500

Sweden 9,088 4,500 $39,000

Consumer Index


Central and Eastern Europe

Contents

Bosnia Bulgaria Croatia Czech Hungary Poland Romania Russia Serbia Slovakia Ukraine

FMCG • • • • • • • • • • •Fresh – – – • – – – • – – •Chilled • • • • • • • • • • •Packaged • • • • • • • • • • •Frozen – – – • • – – • – • •Alcohol • • • • • – • • • • •Soft Drinks • • • • • • • • • • •Personal Care • • • • • • • • • • •Home Care • • • • • • • • • • •Pet Foods – – • • • – – – • • –

Total Central and Eastern Europe – Summary 1

Bosnia 2

Bulgaria 3

Croatia 4

Czech Republic 5

Hungary 6

Poland 7

Romania 8

Russia 9

Serbia 10

Slovakia 11

Ukraine 12

Definitions 13

Sources and methodology 14

FMCG Consumer Dashboard% Change Q2 2011 vs Q2 2010

• Increase of more than 0.5%

• Decrease of more than 0.5%

• Increase/decrease of less than 0.5%

– Category not covered


Consumer Index


supers

hypers

discounts

drugstore

other

bosnia

bulgaria

croatia

czech

hungary

kazakstan

no data?

poland

romania

russia

serbia

slovakia

ukraine

All categories are in decline compared with 2010, especially Alcohol and Personal Care. This is not surprising since both Alcohol, as well as Tobacco, are considered luxuries in Bosnia. The problem with Personal Care is not that household’s are buying less but that they are buying cheaper products. This is confirmed by growth of Private Label within Personal Care.

On Quarterly basis Hypermarkets share of trade in terms of value is down on the same period a year ago but up on Q2 in 2009. Hypermarkets loss of trade has been picked up by the supermarkets. Supermarkets have managed to spread themselves widely by adopting a price oriented strategy with lots of promotions, which are becoming increasingly important for Bosnian households.

GDP (Value) n/a

Rate of Food Inflation (Value) n/a




26.0 26.5 28.1

55.4 51.7 47.8

18.7 21.8 24.1

Trade Channels


Category Trends



Supers Other

Hypers

Bosnia Q2 2011

Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG • • •Chilled • • •Packaged • • •Alcohol • • •Soft Drinks • • •Personal Care • • •Home Care • • •

Q2 2011 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG

Hypers

Supers

Other

Q2 2011

-15 -12 -9 -6 -3 0

bosnia

-6-6

-6

2

-10

-5

-3

-13

-7

-15

-5

10-1

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2

-15 -12 -9 -6 -3 0

bosnia

-6-6

-6

2

-10

-5

-3

-13

-7

-15

-5

10-1

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2

Consumer Index


bulgaria

29.1

2.6

55.3

13.0

33.1

1.12.051.3

12.5

31.7

5.11.650.5

11.2

The growth of about 3.3% year on year on total FMCG level is lower than the overall price increase. Considering the much higher inflation in the food categories, real consumption is decreasing at even higher levels. The trend indicates higher preference towards lower priced products and PLs, strongly promoted by the huge expansion of Lidl.

The value increase does not concern all FMCG segments and is particularly strong on chilled foods and packaged grocery.

During the second quarter of the year despite the continued expansion of Lidl, Hard discounters’ share stabilizes on overall FMCG. The same is true for the share of PLs.

Value sales in supermarkets has been contracting for the last five quarters and the decrease continues in Q2’11. Contrary to that trend mini-markets keep on increasing, driven by the smaller outlet formats of Hyper and Supermarket retailers.

GDP (Value) 1.0%





Trade Channels


Category Trends



Supers & Hypers Cash & Carry

Discounters

Others

Small grocery

Bulgaria Q2 2011

Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011


Q2 2011 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG • • •Supers & Hypers • • •Discounters • •Cash & Carry • • •Small Grocery • • •Other • • •

Q2 2011

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

bosnia

3

5

7

-10

-5

2

-2

10-1

-50 0 50 100 150 200

3

-3

172

-30

1

-4

10-1

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

bosnia

3

5

7

-10

-5

2

-2

10-1

-50 0 50 100 150 200

3

-3

172

-30

1

-4

10-1

Consumer Index


It is now a well known fact that Croatian households are price oriented. In comparison with the same period in 2010, Alcohol and Soft Drinks are the only categories in growth in terms of value with all the other categories in decline. The decline is not a result of reduced consumption, rather that Croatian HHs are now buying cheaper products. As a result we are seeing growth with Private Labels.

Hypermarkets and discounters grew in comparison with Q2 2010. In Croatia it is common for retailers and outlet types to report market changes on a period by period basis because the fight for consumers is becoming increasingly more difficult every day. As well as weekly promotions we now have daily promotions (e.g. Discounts for retired people in Konzum on Wednesdays and Lidl on Thursdays). Now, every retailer has daily promotions which fluctuate among their outlet formats depending on the results from the previous quarter or even previous period.

GDP (Value) n/a


Rate of Unemployment n/a%



Trade Channels

Category Trends



Croatia Q2 2011

croatia

19.3

29.5

4.8

46.4

21.5

28.5

6.0

44.0

24.2

27.27.4

41.3


Hypers Discounters

Supers Other

Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG • • •Chilled • • •Packaged • • •Alcohol • • •Soft Drinks • • •Personal Care • • •Home Care • • •Pet Food • • •

Q2 2011

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10

croatia

-3

-6

0

9

0

-7

-5

-7

10-1

-9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 12 15

-3

12

-8

13

-9

10-1

Q2 2011 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG • • •Hypers • • •Supers • • •Discounters • • •Others • • •

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10

croatia

-3

-6

0

9

0

-7

-5

-7

10-1

-9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 12 15

-3

12

-8

13

-9

10-1

Consumer Index


Compared to 2010 FMCG expenditure of Czech households increased by 5%. The growth was driven mainly by growth of packaged grocery and pet food.

Private Label products hold a 20% share of FMCG purchases. Categories with the highest share of private label products were spray cream, tissues and UHT milk (over 55% in terms of expenditure). At the same time we have seen promotional purchases of national brands increase and reaching a level of 40% of sales.

When shopping, households preferred hypermarkets. Hypermarkets strengthened their position and maintained 38% market share. After several periods of decline, Discounters returned to growth during the latest quarter. Supermarkets have also experienced growth and now represent 16 % of the market value.

The market leader remains Kaufland with a share of 16%. Kaufland is followed by Tesco (12%), Penny Market (11%) and Lidl (8%). In comparison with 2010, share of Kaufland remained stable while the market share of Tesco, Penny Market and Lidl increased slightly.

GDP (Value) 2.9%





Trade Channels

Category Trends



Czech Republic Q2 2011

Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG • • •Fresh • • •Chilled • • •Packaged • • •Frozen • • •Alcohol • • •Soft Drinks • • •Personal Care • • •Home Care • • •Pet Food • • •

Q2 2011

-5 0 5 10 15 20 25

czchec

5

4

4

10

19

7

-3

-3

-5

22

10-1

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

5

4

11

11

-2

10-1

-5 0 5 10 15 20 25

czchec

5

4

4

10

19

7

-3

-3

-5

22

10-1

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

5

4

11

11

-2

10-1

czech

35.0

15.619.8

28.037.0

15.618.8

26.8 39.1

15.318.8

25.0


Hypers Discounters

Supers Other

Q2 2011 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG • • •Hypers • • •Supers • • •Discounters • • •Others • • •

Consumer Index


Growth of the FMCG market in value terms in Q2 2011 has been driven by the inflation of food prices – actual FMCG consumption saw no growth this quarter. All categories demonstrated growth in value terms year on year – particularly in food and drink.

Impulse shops have become less common in Hungary, reflected in a falling rate of frequency of purchase and growth in the average spend per trip per household. This trend is most notable amongst Traditional trade channels where shoppers tend to visit for everyday shopping needs.

Discounters have performed particularly well in Q2 2011. This growth in Discounters however has not been partnered by shoppers downgrading to Private Label products as might be expected.

GDP (Value) 1.0%





Trade Channels

Category Trends



Hungary Q2 2011

hungary

25.5

18.1

21.6

23.9

1.27.1

2.7

26.3

21.118.6

23.7

1.47.0

1.8

28.4

19.019.8

23.1

1.66.7

1.5


Q2 2011 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG • • •Hypers • • •Supers • • •Discounters • • •Cash & Carry • • •Small Grocery • • •Street Vendors • • •Other • • •

Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG • • •Chilled • • •Packaged • • •Frozen • • •Alcohol • • •Soft Drinks • • •Personal Care • • •Home Care • • •Pet Food • • •

Q2 2011

0 5 10 15 20

hungary

10

10

13

18

17

10

1

1

3

22

10-1

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25

10

13

4

20

21

2

-16

8

10-1

0 5 10 15 20

hungary

10

10

13

18

17

10

1

1

3

22

10-1

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25

10

13

4

20

21

2

-16

8

10-1

Hypers Cash & Carry

Supers

Small Vendors

Small Grocery Other

Discounters

Consumer Index


Whilst Home Care and Personal Care showed consecutive decline, total FMCG purchases by Polish households grew 2% in the second quarter of 2011 compared with the same period in 2010. The growth was principally driven by packed grocery, although soft drinks showed the greatest year on year change. In the last quarter both carbonated soft drinks and water grew, although juices showed a decline. Private Label grew significantly in all categories, to the greatest extent with soft drinks (+18%). As a result Private Label value share increased to 24% - a record high.

Discounters became the most important trade channel in Poland, with growth of 22% compared with Q2 2010, increasing market share to 30% of all FMCG purchases. The growth of Discounters came at the cost of small grocery shops and supermarkets, and with Cash & Carry showing the greatest decline.

It is important to note that Poland’s leading retailer Biedronka, owned by Jeronimo Martins, has launched its second banner: Drogery Hebe, which mainly offers Personal Care and Home Care products.

GDP (Value) 4.4%





Trade Channels

Category Trends



Poland Q2 2011

Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG • • •Chilled • • •Packaged • • •Soft Drinks • • •Personal Care • • •Home Care • • •

Q2 2011

-4.0-3.5-3.0-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0

poland

2

-13

-15

-6

3

3

4

-2

-4

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25

2

4

-3

-16

22

Q2 2011 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG • • •Hypers • • •Supers • • •Discounters • • •Cash & Carry • • •Small Grocery • • •Street Vendors • • •Other • • •-4.0-3.5-3.0-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0

poland

2

-13

-15

-6

3

3

4

-2

-4

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25

2

4

-3

-16

22

16.8

1.8

29.6

1.7

21.0

22.07.0

19.41.8

24.6

1.2

23.5

23.95.6

19.41.6

21.1

0.9

27.9

24.44.7

poland


Hypers Cash & Carry

Supers

Street Vendors

Small Grocery Other

Discounters

Consumer Index


GDP (Value) 1.4%





Trade Channels

Category Trends

Trade Channels Trends


Romania Q2 2011

Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011


Q2 2011

0 3 6 9 12 15

romania

8

-2

5

12

11

14

0

7

2

4

-5 0 5 10 15 20

8

17

17

-1

16

Q2 2011 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG • • •Hypers • • •Supers • • •Discounters • • •Cash & Carry • • •Small Grocery • • •Street Vendors • • •Other • • •0 3 6 9 12 15

romania

8

-2

5

12

11

14

0

7

2

4

-5 0 5 10 15 20

8

17

17

-1

16

romania

40.9

2.2

13.2

7.6

13.43.7

19.0

40.8

1.5

12.6

9.6

12.03.6

19.9

38.7

1.4

13.0

10.2

11.73.521.5


Other

Cash & Carry

Street Vendors

Supers

Discounters

Hypers

Small Grocery

The second quarter of 2011 ended with 8% increase in terms of expenditure.

Comparing to previous quarters, chilled food & packaged grocery products were displaying the highest growth rates +11%, +14%, due to price increases. Home care products and soft drinks beverages also showed a positive trend in value, but at a lower level +4%, +7%.

The Romanian shopper behavior changed during the last year, going shopping less frequently (-3.5%), but spending more per trip (+10%) versus previous period.

Modern trade stores reached more than 47% within total sales for the first half of the year. Hypermarkets have increased by almost 2 percentage points in value market share from 20.6% to 22.3% and also discounters have continued to grow covering now 10% in terms of value share.

The small grocery stores still remained the most popular format, but in a continuous decline compared to previous quarters, covering now almost 38% of total sales.

Private label has grown across all categories, increasing by almost 70% in terms of absolute expenditure and reaching 8% value share.

Consumer Index


Strong growth of total FMCG was supported by continued growth in the majority of categories year on year. Fresh Foods experienced the fastest rate of growth (+16%) when compared to the same period in 2010.

Soft Drinks, Personal Care and Home Care all show negative performance when compared to last year.

Whilst Modern Trade still holds the greatest market share amongst trade channels, Discounters and Cash & Carry stores have experienced the fastest rate of growth (+55.2% and +31.9% respectively). Cash & Carry performance is mainly due to Lenta, which has doubled it’s value year on year, whilst Magnit is the main contributor to Discounter performance.

Traditional Trade experienced a slight fall in channel share this quarter due to the performance of Small Grocery stores.

GDP (Value) n/a





Trade Channels

Category Trends



Russia Q2 2011

Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG • • •Fresh • • •Chilled • • •Packaged • • •Frozen • • •Alcohol • • •Soft Drinks • • •Personal Care • • •Home Care • • •

Q2 2011

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

russia

10

9

8

1

16

10

13

10

4

-8

-2

-1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

10

14

1

55

32

40.9

2.2

0.9

31.4

17.4

23.6

7.6

11.0

10.9

4.8

1.4

29.9

16.6

19.7 13.4

12.0

7.0

1.5

29.5

15.7

19.1 12.9

14.0

7.3

russia


Hypers Cash & Carry

Supers

Street Vendors

Small Grocery Other

Discounters

Q2 2011 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011


-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

russia

10

9

8

1

16

10

13

10

4

-8

-2

-1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

10

14

1

55

32

Consumer Index


The Serbian macroeconomic environment is marred by high levels of unemployment, 22.2% in Q2 2011, with predictions of further increases by the end of the calendar year. This is compounded by high levels of inflation (13.6%) over the same time period.

Despite these factors, total FMCG has returned to growth this quarter, the first time since Q2 2010. Shoppers are purchasing in larger quantities per trip, resulting in a corresponding decline in the frequency. Alcohol (beer), soft drinks (mostly carbonated soft drinks) and packaged grocery all increased in value while personal and home care products decreased in value in.

All outlet types increased in year on year value. However Cash & Carry increased most in the lastest period. Roda and Metro were responsible for driving this increase. The year on year growth of Cash and Carry and Hard Discounters may be helping to drive increases in trip volume, albeit from a small spend base.

Among leading retailers DIS increased market share the most in Q2, whilst Delta Maxi and Idea declined. Mercator, Supervero and Interex drove increases in hypermarkets, while Roda and Idea increased within supermarkets. Both Delta Maxi and Roda increased value among small format shops.

GDP (Value) n/a





Trade Channels

Category Trends



Serbia Q2 2011

Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG • • •Chilled • • •Packaged • • •Alcohol • • •Soft Drinks • • •Personal Care • • •Home Care • • •Pet Foods • • •

Q2 2011

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10

serbia

5

3

105

3

1

9

10

7

-3

-4

-3

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

5

4

5

4

13

53.4

3.4

6.4

5.18.0

23.7

53.0

3.20.2

6.2

4.79.1

23.6

53.4

3.00.3

6.0

4.99.2

23.2

serbia


Hypers Small Grocery

Supers

Hard Discounters

Street Vendors Other

Cash & Carry

Q2 2011 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG • • •Hypers • • •Supers • • •Cash & Carry • • •Small Grocery • • •Street Vendors • • •Hard Discounters – • •Other • • •

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10

serbia

5

3

105

3

1

9

10

7

-3

-4

-3

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

5

4

5

4

13

Consumer Index


FMCG household spend has remained relatively stable in Slovakia year on year.

Alcoholic beverages demonstrated the most significant value increase due to a heightened purchasing intensity, but this positive performance has been cancelled out by the negative performance of the Personal Care and Home Care categories among others.

Whilst Private Label popularity in Slovakia continued to grow in Q2, the rate of growth has begun to slow down. Private Label has almost a 30% share of the market in Slovakia, and as such, Slovakia has one of the highest Private Label shares across CEE.

Hypermarkets have continued to be the most popular trade channel in Slovakia in 2011, and their value share has grown year on year – mainly due to the performance of Tesco and Kaufland.

As well as their traditional Hypermarket format – Tesco Extra – Tesco has opened a number of smaller outlets (Tesco Express).

GDP (Value) 3.3%





Trade Channels

Category Trends



Slovakia Q2 2011

24.8

13.8

24.3

25.1

12.0

22.3

16.2

27.4

23.4

10.8

20.0

16.3

30.6

23.1

10.1

slovakia


Hypers Discounters Others

Supers Small Grocery

Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG • • •Chilled • • •Packaged • • •Frozen • • •Alcohol • • •Soft Drinks • • •Personal Care • • •Home Care • • •Pet Foods • • •

Q2 2011

-9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 12 15

serbia

-1

-10

-8

-4

1

3

13

4

-1

-7

-9

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10

-1

9

0

-3

Q2 2011 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG • • •Hypers • • •Supers • • •Discounters • • •Small Grocery • • •Others • • •

-9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 12 15

serbia

-1

-10

-8

-4

1

3

13

4

-1

-7

-9

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10

-1

9

0

-3

Consumer Index


FMCG has maintained year on year value growth (+9%) continuing the trend seen in previous periods. GDP also increased over the same period by 4.5% for 1HY 2011. According to official data inflation was +5.9% for 1HY 2011, this is significantly higher compared to the previous year (+3.3%).

The key food categories driving both value and volume growth are Frozen products (+22% value growth) especially Frozen Fruits & Vegetables. Impressive growth can also be seen in the Pasta, Sauces, Mustard, traditional Curd markets. The main losers over the same time period are Alcohol, Juices, Chocolate Tablets & Boxed Pralines.

Among modern trade channels, Supermarkets and Discounters continue showing the most positive development, though their market shares remain relatively stable.

Among the most successful chains continue to be Discounters: ATB, MD Stores, Barvinok; Supermarkets: Target, Kray, Silpo, Tavria, Eco, Silpo. Traditional Small grocery shops are also showing impressive year on year growth.

GDP (Value) n/a



Frequency of FMCG Purchase -3.5

Average FMCG basket size (Value) 12.9

Trade Channels

Category Trends



Ukraine Q2 2011

12.022.3

0.7

2.8

12.6

1.8

48.1

11.316.8

0.8

3.2

18.2

1.5

48.3

11.514.5

0.7

3.4

20.6

1.2

48.2

ukraine


Hypers Cash & Carry

Supers

Street Vendors

Small Grocery Other

Discounters

Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG • • •Fresh • • •Chilled • • •Packaged • • •Frozen • • •Alcohol • • •Soft Drinks • • •Personal Care • • •Home Care • • •

Q2 2011

-5 0 5 10 15 20 25

ukraine

9

-8

-212

9

8

22

0

-5

2

-2

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

9

12

16

14

4

4

Q2 2011 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011


-5 0 5 10 15 20 25

ukraine

9

-8

-212

9

8

22

0

-5

2

-2

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

9

12

16

14

4

4

Consumer Index


DefinitionsCATEGORIES UNIVERSE:FMCG: Fast Moving Consumer Goods (includes foods, personal care and home care; excludes clothes, white goods etc...) Total FMCG is not necessarily the sum of the categories shown below it.

Categories:• Fresh Foods: fresh fish, fresh meat, fresh poultry/game, fresh fruit, vegetables, salads• Chilled Foods: chilled deli products, chilled dairy products, chilled bakery products• Packaged Grocery: bread, biscuits, canned goods, hot beverages, packet breakfast, pickles, sauces, condiments, savoury carbohydrates and snacks, home

cooking ingredients, take home confectionery and savouries• Soft Drinks: carbonated soft drinks, chilled drinks and mineral water• Home Care: softeners, detergents and rinse conditioners• Personal Care: bathroom toiletries, hair care, healthcare, oral care, other toiletries

TRADE CHANNEL DEFINITIONS:Hypermarkets Supermarkets Discounters Cash & Carry Small Grocery Shops Street Vendors +

open marketsOthers

Bosnia Offering a broad food and non-food assortment. Usually offering large car parks.(Interex, Mercator, Robot Commerce, Merkur, Tom, Bingo...)

Mainly food assortment; over 400 m2 (Konzum, Interex, Dzanovic, Robot Commerce, Zvornicanka, Mercator, Tropic, Bingo...)

Limited range of food, often selling directly from pallets, focused on price (Lidl)

Velpro, Slavija n/a n/a Offering a broad food and non-food assortment; selling to licensed customers (Getro, Metro); Specialist stores: pet shops, fruit shops, chocolate shops and butchers, kiosks, open market places, door-to-door, producer/farmer, mail order, gas stations, news stands; Smaller food/grocery outlets up to 400 m2 (Lora, Klas, Dzanovic, DP Market, Braca Karovic, Bingo, Konzum)

Bulgaria HIT, Ramstore Hypermakets, Billa, Boila, Bonjour, Burlex, CBA Supermarkets, ENA, Familia, Fantastico Supermarkets, Oazis, Piccadilly, Ramstore Supermarkets, Other Supermarkets

Kaufland Fantastico C&C, Metro C&C

ARO, CBA Minimarkets, Fantastico Minimarkets, Magazin 345, T-Market, Minimarkets, Market Halls, Mixed Assortment

Street Vendors, Open Markets Vendors

Agro & Food stores, specialized stores: bakeries, butchers, chemists, etc, door-to-door, kiosks, mail order houses / subscr., petrol stations, tobacconists, etc.

Croatia Offering a broad food and non-food assortment. Usually offering large car parks.(Interspar, IperCoop, Kaufland, Mercator hypers, Super Konzum)

Mainly food assortment; over 400 m2 (Bakmaz, Billa, Biljemerkant, Boso, Diona, Idis, Jolly, Kerum, KTC, Maxi Konzum, Mercator, Pemo, Plodine, Presoflex, Studenac, Tommy, etc.

Limited range of food, often selling directly from pallets, focused on price (Lidl)

Getro, Metro n/a n/a Offering a broad food and non-food assortment; selling to licensed customers (Getro, Metro); Specialist stores: pet shops, fruit shops, chocolate shops and butchers, kiosks, open market places, door-to-door, producer/farmer, mail order, gas stations, news stands; Smaller food/grocery outlets up to 400 m2 (Local convenience stores, Bakmaz, Billa (Minaco), Boso, Diona, Idis, Kerum, Konzum, KTC, Mercator, Pemo, Prehrana, Presoflex, Studenac, Tommy, etc.)

Czech Republic

Globus, Kaufland, Interspar, Hypernova/Hyperalbert, Tesco hypermarket, COOP Terno, Hypermarket

Albert, Billa, Tesco diskont, COOP / Jednota Tempo, COOP / Jednota Tip, COOP Supermarket; independents

Lidl, Penny Market, Plus, Norma, COOP Diskont, Diskont

Makro, Hopi C&C Small self-service grocers: Spar, COOP / Jednota, COOP / Jednota Tuty Over-the-counter specialists


Family Frost, petrol station, etc.

Hungary > 2,500 m2, more than 10,000 articles, at least 30% non-food, more than 10 cash registers (Auchan, Cora, Interspar, Tesco)

400-2,000 m2, food and non food, 3-10 cash registers (Kaiser’s, Match, Spar, bigger Coop, CBA and Real)

400-1,000 m2, food and near-food range, cosmetics and chemical products, 3-10 cash registers (Lidl, Penny Market, Plus, Profi, Aldi)

Metro Selling area less than 400 m2, 1 or 2 cash registers, range of food and non-food articles, belonging to named key account (small Coop, small CBA, small Real, small Honiker and Heliker shops) or being independent.


Mail order, direct marketing, D.I.Y etc.

Poland Auchan, Kaufland, Tesco, Intermarche, Carrefour, Real, E.Leclerc

ABC, Aldik, Alma, Asort, Billa, Bomi, Carrefour Minut, Carrefour Express, Dino, Duzy Sklep Wielobranzowy, Eko, Elea, E.Leclerc, Euro Sklep, Grosik, Jedynka, Marcpol, Piotripawel, Polomarket, Rossmann, Sano, Savia, Seic 34, Spar, Stokrotka, Tesco Express, Tesco, Topaz, Zatoka, Zielony Market

Aldi, Biedronka, Lidl, Netto, Plus Discount

Eurocash, Makro, Selgros

Food and non-food, less than 3 cash desks


Petrol stations, Pharmacies, Drugstores, Cosmetics shops, Kiosks, Wholesalers, etc

Romania Carrefour Hypermarket, Cora, Auchan Hypermarket, Spar Hypermarket, Real, Trident, Pic, Interex, Kaufland.

Food and non food products: Carrefour Express, Auchan Supermarket, Spar Supermarket, Mega Image, Billa, G’market, Angst, etc and independents

Lower prices for food and non food products: Penny Market, Penny Market XXL, MiniMax Discount, Plus, Profi

Metro Cash & Carry, Selgros Cash & Carry

Traditional shops, selling food and non food products, kiosks and agro & food stores (traditional over-the-counter shops for food, where you can also buy personal and household care products).

Street Vendors, market hall and open market vendors (open spaces for trade, especially for food products).

Other Shops: specialists stores, gas stations; drugstores; “Economat” stores, etc.

Russia Ramstore, O’Key, Auchan Sedmoy Kontinent, Stolitsa, BIN, etc Kopeyka, Magnit, Pyaterochka, Kopeyka

Metro Cash&Carry Limited food and non-food assortment

Street Vendors and Open Markets

Drugstores, Petrol stations, etc.

Serbia 1000s m2, food and non-food assortment Mercator, Interex, Super Vero, M Rodic, Idea extra, Super Maxi, Tus

Over 400m2 C Market, Pekabeta, M Rodic, Maxi, Jabuka, Si Market, Univerexport, Interex, Ziper 024, Impex Promet, IDEA Super, DIS, Tus, etc

n/a Stores with specific payment regulation and/or specific membership cards Tempo, Metro, Roda, Figrad, etc

Up to 400m2, miniMaxi, C Market, Pekabeta, M Rodic, Univerexport, Idea, Jabuka, Si Market, Višnjica, DIS, Luki Komerc, etc


Specialist stores Drogeries (DM, Lilly), Perfumeries, Pharmacies, Door-to-Door, Bakeries, Coffee Shops, Beverages discounts, Dairy Shops, Candy Shops, Kiosks, etc

Slovakia Food and non-food assortment, minimal sales area 2500 sqm, usually offering large car parks (examples: HM Tesco, Hypernova, Carrefour, Kaufland).

Food assortment. Billa, Terno, COOP/Jednota

Limited range of food assortment, often selling directly from pallets, focused on price (Lidl, Rema 1000, etc.)

Selling to licenced customers only (retailers, small entrepreneurs (examples: Metro).

Small food-self service: Sama, Coop Small food retailers over-the-counter: Bala


Gas stations, tobacconist´s/newsstands, etc.

Ukraine More than 400m2. Silpo, Furshet, Billa, Velyka Kyshenya, Karavan, ProStor, Tam-Tam, Auchan, etc.

400-1,500 m2. ATB, Fora, Barvinok, etc.

Selgros & Makro for households and Metro for businesses

Selling mainly food, less than 3 cash registers, counter or selfservice

n/a Direct sales, specialized stores, etc.

Consumer Index


METHODOLOGY:

• A consumer panel is a permanent, syndicated and representative sample of consumers, who provide ongoing details of the fast moving consumer goods they purchase. Using the scanning/diary methodology, each panel member records the details of every item they purchase.

• Sample sizes in number of households: Russia: 7,000; Poland: 5,000; Ukraine: 5,000; Czech Republic: 2,000; Hungary: 2,000; Bulgaria: 2,500; Romania: 2,200; Croatia: 1,500; Slovakia: 1,500; Serbia: 1,500; Bosnia&Herzegovina: 1,000.

• Category, channels data and Average Basket size data are based on local currency.

KEY INDICATORS :


• Frequency of FMCG purchase: Frequency of FMCG purchase during the quarter compared with the same quarter the previous year.

• FMCG Average Basket Size: Average amount spent per trip in FMCG during the quarter compared with the same quarter the previous year.

Eurostat data indicators:

• Food price index: Harmonized Indices of Consumer Prices (HICPs) are produced and published using a common index reference period (2005=100).

• Unemployment: Unemployed persons comprise persons aged 15 to 74 who were without work during the reference week, were currently available for work and were either actively seeking work in the past four weeks or had already found a job to start within the next three months.

• Constant Price GDP (based on Euro currency): Gross domestic product (GDP) at market prices is the final result of the production activity of resident producer units (ESA 1995, 8.89). It is defined as the value of all goods and services produced less the value of any goods or services used in their creation. Data are calculated as chainlinked volumes (i.e. data at previous year’s prices, linked over the years via appropriate growth rates). Growth rates with respect to the previous quarter (Q/Q-1) are calculated from calendar and seasonally adjusted figures while growth rates with respect to the same quarter of the previous year (Q/Q-4) are calculated from raw data.


KEY COUNTRY FACTS:

Source: CIA World Fact Book

Country Individual Population (in

000’s)

Number Of Households (in

000’s)


Bosnia & Herzegovina

4,622 1,100 $6,600

Bulgaria 7,093 2,900 $12,800

Croatia 4,483 1,500 $17,500

Czech Republic

10,190 4,400 $25,600

Hungary 9,976 3,800 $19,000

Kazakhstan 15,522 4,392 $12,700

Poland 38,441 13,400 $18,800

Romania 21,904 7,300 $11,500

Russia Federation

138,739 52,700 $15,900

Serbia 7,310 2,500 $11,000

Slovakia 5,477 1,900 $22,200

Ukraine 45,134 18,200 $6,700

Consumer Index


Total FMCG Trends% Change (Value)

MAT Q1 10 vs. MAT Q1 11

Q1 10 vs. Q1 11

WESTERNNORTH CENTRALSOUTHNORTHEAST

NORTH CENTRAL

WEST

NORTH EAST

SOUTH

WA

OR

NV

CA

AZ

UT

ID

MT

WY

CO

NM

TX

OK

KS

NE

SD

ND

MN

IA

MO

AR

LAMS AL GA

FL

SC

TN

KY

NC

VAWV

OHIN

IL

WI MTPA

NY

ME

MARI

NJDE

MD

VP

NI

CT

TOTAL US

-1.2 -1.7

-1.4 -2.0

-0.9 -1.1 -0.9 -1.2

-1.3-2.2

USA Q2 2011


NORTH CENTRAL

0.6 2.0NORTH EAST

-0.1 0.9

SOUTH

-0.1

1.0WEST

-0.3 1.0

TOTAL US

0.0 1.2

WESTERNNORTH CENTRALSOUTHNORTHEAST

MAT Q2 11 vs. MAT Q2 10

Q2 11 vs. Q2 10

Consumer Index


Total FMCG/CPG stood at $87.8 billion at the end of Q2 2011 – an increase of +1.2% compared with Q2 2010.

While earlier in the economic downturn, Grocers struggled because they were viewed as pricier versus competing channels, in Q2 2011 they saw an increase of 1.7% year on year as retailers have focused intently on honing their price/value image. They have reexamined pricing strategies, stepped up promotional efforts, and built private label lines. All this is helping this channel regain consumer confidence.

High gas prices are rippling through the CPG marketplace, having a significant impact on budget-strained shoppers. Trips are being consolidated, and consumers are showing a growing affinity for closer-to-home retail options. This pattern is impacting the Mass channel as these stores are generally located in more rural areas versus the typical grocery store. At the same time, the Club channel felt the brunt of consumers’ shift away from stock-up trips.

The Drug channel continues to see fill-in trips capturing an increasing share of trip mix. This shift began several years ago, during the initial stages of the recession. Drug channel assortment has evolved, with food and beverage enjoying more shelf space. Spend per trip climbed in the drug channel, outperforming the industry average and other channels by a wide margin.

GDP (Value) n/a%

Rate of Food Inflation (Value) n/a%




Trade Channel Shares


FMCG Category Trends

Trade Channels Trends


Grocers Mass

Drug Store

Club

Supercenter Other

USA Q2 2011

Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG

Fresh

Chilled

Packaged

Frozen

Alcohol

Soft Drinks

Personal Care

Home Care

Pet Foods

Q2 2011 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

FMCG

Grocery

Drug

Mass

Supercenter

Club

Other

1

2

15

-1

-4

-1

4

Q2 2011

1

1

5

3

-1

1

-2

-3

-2

1

usa

9.3

18.8

5.94.8

9.5

51.7

9.8

18.9

5.75.6

9.4

50.6 50.9

9.6

18.0

5.66.4

9.6

Consumer Index


The prolonged recession has driven many consumers to re-evaluate their spending habits, leading to eating out less often and cutting expenses wherever they can by preparing meals from scratch, benefiting Fresh Foods, Chilled Foods and Packaged Grocery. Further, even though historically Private Label has been bought due to its lower price, many retailers are realizing that, despite recessionary times, consumers’ perception of value is no longer solely based on price; quality is now an important part of the equation, especially for food items. Therefore, many retailers have been improving their Chilled Foods and Packaged Grocery quality and have been charging a premium for it. Thereby helping the categories expand in terms of dollar sales. Frozen Foods also experienced a decline of -0.9% largely attributed to consumer interest in preparing meals from scratch. Alcohol also faced a decline of -1.6%, triggered by increased consumer affinity towards cheaper alcohol.

Within Personal Care, even though consumers are prolonging life cycles by using less product and “squeezing the last ounce out of the bottle”, consumer confidence is growing, and many consumers are switching back to more expensive brands. There has also been an increase in sales for more premium natural/organic hair care products.

The number of households with pets increased according a recent survey conducted by the American Pet Products Association. A record number of people now own pets, and, as a result, are spending more on their animals.

Beyond economizing due to the recession, sales trends in various Home Care segments signal a continuing shift in cleaning behavior from the thorough top-to-bottom cleaning of a previous generation to an ad hoc approach where household cleaning happens on more of an as-needed basis. New product activity over the last several years, including a host of multi-purpose and one-step cleaning products, has reinforced this increasingly ad hoc approach to cleaning. The presence of children spurs households to use most types of household cleaning products more. The percentage of households with children, however, has declined steadily with people putting off having children due to the uncertain economic environment.

Despite a slight decline in Soft Drinks, overall, the incidence and frequency with which American adults, teens, and kids use various beverages including soda, juice and bottled water has remained remarkably stable in recent years. Changes in category sales are less a function of changes in consumer demand and more a result of price promotions and the tendency of some consumers to buy the cheapest beverages, especially during the challenging economy.

Private Label products accounted for 20.3% of Total FMCG dollar sales in Q2 2011, a decline vs. Q2 2010. Private label share trends are showing signs of change with dollar share growth slowing. Also, performance varies at the department, even the category level. For instance, it continues to show considerable strength in the healthcare department but did not fare so well in the beauty/personal care. In the coming months and years, private label will continue to play an important role in consumers’ money-saving strategies. National brand marketers are working hard to ensure that their brands, too, bring the quality and value that consumers seek, thereby challenging Private Label sales.

USA Q2 2011 (continued)

Consumer Index


METHODOLOGY:

• A consumer panel is a permanent, syndicated and representative sample of consumers, who provide ongoing details of the fast moving consumer goods they purchase. Using the scanning methodology, each panel member records the details of every item they purchase.

• Sample size: 100,000 Households

CATEGORIES UNIVERSE:


FMCG: Fast Moving Consumer Goods (includes foods, personal care and home care; excludes clothes, white goods etc...)

Categories:

• Fresh Foods: fresh eggs, fresh bread & rolls random weight fresh foods are excluded (fresh fish, meat, fruit, or vegetables)

• Chilled Foods: chilled deli products, chilled dairy products, chilled bakery products

• Packaged Grocery: bread, biscuits, canned goods, hot beverages, packet breakfast, pickles, sauces, condiments, savoury carbohydrates and snacks, home cooking ingredients, take home confectionery and savouries

• Soft Drinks: carbonated soft drinks, chilled drinks, mineral water and juices of all types (rrefrigerated, bottled, canned, frozen)

• Home Care: softeners, detergents and rinse conditioners

• Personal Care: bathroom toiletries, hair care, healthcare, oral care, other toiletries

• Pet Food: cat food and dog food

TRADE CHANNELS:

• Grocers: This government-defined term encompasses any retail store selling food items including not only supermarkets but also convenience stores, supermarkets and specialty stores such as delis but excluding wholesale club

• Drug stores: Those stores that carry Health & Beauty items in addition to prescription medicines, along with larger units that sell consumer packaged goods, limited lines of food, paper, and seasonal items

• Mass: Defined as discount stores, general merchandise stores, and variety stores or “dollar” stores

• Supercenters: A retail unit with a full line supermarket and a full line discount merchandiser under one roof; the store may have separate or combined checkouts

• Club stores: These membership club stores are characterized by high volume on a restricted line of popular merchandise into a no-frills environment. The average club stocks 4,000 SKU’s, 40% which are grocery items

Country Individual Population (in 000’s)

Number Of Households (in 000’s)


USA 301,621 114,996 45,000

North Central 66,389 26,100 n/a

Northeast 54,681 21,138 n/a

South 110,455 43,017 n/a

West 70,097 24,741 n/a


consumer index - gfkps.com index tel: +44 20 8967 2162 ... chilled food = dairy products only; home...

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