CONSUMER SECTOR PRESENTATION

4/3/2002

CONSUMER SECTOR PRESENTATION

4/3/2002

Brian Price John Wilson

sector head associate sector head

Arianne Obering Mary Whitehouse senior analyst research analyst

PRESENTATION OUTLINEPRESENTATION OUTLINE

State of the Sector Valuation Models, the future of the investment

fund (Wal-Mart example) Recommendation: Sell GPS (Gap) Future opportunities in the sector

STATE OF CONSUMER SECTOR

STATE OF CONSUMER SECTOR

Limited Inc LTD Pepsico Inc PEP Walmart WMT Gap Inc GPS

Price:

4-Sep-2001 13.94 47.30 48.95 19.68

2-Jan-2002 15.52 49.15 58.05 14.1

1-Apr-2002 16.92 51.43 59.56 14.93

Beta: 1.44 0.7 0.94 1.55

PE: 20.6 30.7 42 88.5

EPS: 1.19 1.66 1.4 0.18

Debt/Capital: 17% 35% 36% 39%

SECTOR PERFORMANCE 9/4/01-4/1/02

SECTOR PERFORMANCE 9/4/01-4/1/02

ND Consumer: 11.55%

IYK (consumer index): 7.64%

S&P 500: -.34%

SECTOR BETASECTOR BETA

1-Apr

GPS 160 $14.93 $2,388.80 7.31% 1.55 0.113271

LTD 218 $16.92 $3,688.56 11.28% 1.44 0.162489

PEP 170 $51.43 $8,743.10 26.75% 0.7 0.187227

WMT 300 $59.56 $17,868.00 54.66% 0.94 0.513818

$32,688.46 Beta Portfolio 0.976805

Sector Stock WeightsSector Stock Weights

9/4/01 4/1/02

11%11%

28%

50%

GPS

LTD

PEP

WMT

7%11%

27%55%

GPS

LTD

PEP

WMT

VALUATIONS: The Fund’s Future

VALUATIONS: The Fund’s Future

Applied Investment Management, aka AIM, is a senior and graduate level class for finance majors/MBA concentrators

Like professional management funds, they run valuation models to come up with their dollar estimate of the price per share

This makes decisions fairly simple: if the stock’s present share price is under the estimated value, buy, if above, sell.

VALUATIONS, cont.VALUATIONS, cont.

The problem: I have no clue how to run these valuation models

The solution: perhaps we could schedule either professor Reilly, Langley, or Malpass for a quick lecture on this, or bring in some senior AIM alumni for help

VALUATION EXAMPLEVALUATION EXAMPLE Check out www.nd.edu/~aim and click on AIM Alumni link (AIM

XIII) to see valuations. Some valuations of interest include Wal-Mart, Caterpillar, Amgen, EMC, and Enron

Valuation is, of course, not an exact science. The Enron valuation placed its value at $58.72.

“ Based on the previous reports, the industry is prime for the taking and Enron has the financial strength and the expertise to operate in such high volume, low margin market. Technical analysis had a very bearish outlook on the stock, but the latest trough may well have been the bottom, as the stock has risen in the past few weeks. My estimated price is greater than 25% of the current price and thus is a ‘strong buy’.” Frederick VonMering 10/15/01

The Moral: Don’t listen to Grad Students. Only take valuations from undergrads who aren’t named Jason King.

VALUATION TECHNIQUESVALUATION TECHNIQUESWAL-MART

Book Value Technique 61.38

Dividend Discount 48.46

Discounted Cash Flow 64.75

*DCF determined to be best for Wal-Mart, and since stock traded at $52.90, it was rated as a BUY. In this example, a very good call, and good valuation (today’s price about $59.00)

GAP, INCGAP, INC

THE PROBLEMS AND THE SOLUTION

GAP, INC.GAP, INC.

Banana Republic Gap Old Navy All three lost money in 2001—Old Navy and

Banana Republic lost less that Gap

MARKETING PROBLEMSMARKETING PROBLEMS

“We changed too much, too quickly, in ways that weren’t consistent with our brands”

“Gap stores became unfocused, trying to attract too many different customers”

Comments from Gap’s CEO

INVENTORY PROBLEMSINVENTORY PROBLEMS

Started in early 2000 Show no signs of stopping Already discounting new Spring merchandise Customers do not like what they see so far from

Gap this Spring

THE EFFECTTHE EFFECT

Loss of $0.01 per share in 2001 Very small gain in Revenue (1.27%) Worst performing year that I can find since 1985

GAP, NOW . . .GAP, NOW . . .

No PE—lost money in 2001 Dividend growth rate is –2% Industry avg. Div. growth rate is +5% Credit downgraded to “junk” status Gap Debt/Equity is 67% Limited’s Debt/Equity is 17% Financially weak compared to industry

GAP, FUTURE . . .GAP, FUTURE . . .

Priced at 56 times 2002 est. EPS Priced at 29 times 2002 est. EPS Industry avg. PE is 21 Note: It is hard to predict Gap’s earnings in

future years, due to its cyclical nature

GAP, INC.GAP, INC.

GAP, INC.GAP, INC.

CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION

Not a quick turnaround Already own Limited, which is a better company

right now Sell all of our shares of GAP, INC

Why Sell GPS ContinuedWhy Sell GPS Continued

We want to increase our return in the short-term. GAP will more than likely increase over the next couple of years. However, for our purposes holding on to this stock while the company figures its way out of the web it has weaved is not wise. Instead, the money lost in GAP and the portfolio as a whole may produce better results by diversifying and investing in better opportunities. There are many stocks that we feel are strong companies with high growth potential, perhaps a bit more risk and/ or both short-term and long-term gains.

Future Possibilities Future Possibilities

The Interpublic Group Company IPG Steak-n-Shake SNS Papa John’s Pizza

PZZA Linens-n-Things LIN Limited (add to holdings) LTD Backyard Burgers BYB

For next time…..For next time…..

Please take some time to look into these stocks and we will make a presentation in the near future as to which we feel would be most beneficial to our sector. Bear in mind how heavily weighted we currently are in Wal-Mart, and how few stocks the consumer sector holds.

In Closing…In Closing…

"99% of fund managers demonstrate no evidence of skill whatsoever."

1%