container throughput forecast in the escap region

Container throughput forecast in

the ESCAP region

Capacity Building Workshop on Sustainable and Resilient Port Development to

Support Sustainable Maritime Connectivity in Asia and the Pacific

18 December 2020. Bangkok, Thailand.

Sooyeob Kim, Economic Affairs Officer

Transport Facilitation and Logistics sectionTransport Division

Contents

1. Necessity and objectives of research

2. Study methodology: Trade Module, Transport Network Module, Port

Strategic Plan Module

3. Container throughput forecast in ESCAP region

4. Future steps

1. Necessity and objectives of

research

1. Necessity and objectives of research*

Context:

▪ ESCAP: strong economic growth rate, emerging as growth engine and leadingconsumer market of the world.

▪ Diverse countries, various economic development levels: gap in development phase oflogistics facilities (port, road and rail).

Ports are a key driving force: more than 80% of international cargoes are transported bysea.

Growing demand for economic, sustainable and environmentally friendly ports

There is a need to prospect container cargoes in ESCAP area to accommodate portsand container fleets for consistent development

▪ Help in designing port development plan

▪ Give an overview of future port activities

▪ Increased demand for resilient ports to social and natural disasters, including infectiousdiseases such as Covid-19

* Project objective: improve polices and strategies for development of sustainable and resilient portdevelopment in member States

2. Study methodology: Trade Module,

Transport Network Module, Port

Strategic Plan Module

2. Study methodology: Trade Module, Transport Network

Module, Port Strategic Plan Module

ITPM: Integrated Transport Planning Model, developed by ESCAP and KMI

(Korea Maritime Institute) was applied to estimate container throughput

and future demand

▪ Variables: GDP and container trade voulme and container throughput data

Include data on infrastructure (ports facilities) from literature and field

research

ITPM model adopted in this study is forecasting container throughput in the

future using simple regression analysis on economic growth rate of major

countries and regions and container throughput volume

Full report will be included followings:

- Overview of maritime and port in the Asia-Pacific

- Issues and challenges on sustainable and resilient port development

- Container traffic forecasting and demand for port development

- Strategies and action plans for regional cooperation

- Policy recommendations for sustainable and resilient port development

Trade Module is used for container flow forecast

Transport Network Module (TNM) is used for port throughput.



Trade module provides export & import container volumes for each country

TNM provides how many ships will be needed (fleet capacity) to

carry the projected forecast containers and inform on port

throughput (including transshipment volume)



Port Strategic Planning Modules

Capacity and investment

requirement

Reliable data needed

Calculate berths requirements

according to forecasting traffic

volume

Further study is needed for model

upgrade and develop database

including port facilities, container fleet

3. Container throughput forecast in

ESCAP region


– GDP growth & container trade volume

World seaborne trade

remains largely determined

by world economy and

trade growth.

ITPM adopted in this study is forecasting container

throughput in the future

using simple regression

analysis based on economic growth rate of

major countries and regions

and container trade and

throughput volume.

Average annual GDP growth rate (percent %)

-4

-2

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6

8

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0

202

1

ESCAP

World

1.82% (Recent 5

Years)

2.67% (Recent 10

Years

2.59% (Recent 5

Years)

3.58% (Recent 10

Years)

COVID-19

-5

0

5

10

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Future Forecast

Rate

Maritime container throughput:

Continuously increased over the past

decades. except economic crisis period, 2009

financial crisis and 2020 COVID-19 pandemic

Container maritime trade, which has

shown relatively high growth rates over the

past several decades, is expected to show

5.8% and 4.6% growth rate until 2025 and

2030 respectively. Expected to recoverfrom the economic downturn caused by

COVID-19

Share of empty containers: 23-24%.

Consistent with container repositioning due

to trade imbalance

Container throughput forecast (Mil TEU)

3. Container throughput forecast

– Container throughput trends

2015 2019 2025 2030

265302

424

531

Full

77%

Empty

23%

F/E ratio(2019)

ESCAP's share of global maritime traffic continues to increase

▪ 2019: 68% > 2025:70%

ESCAP's share of global maritime traffic continues to increase

ESCAP ratio container throughput (%)


– Container trade forecast

68%

32%

2019ESCAP Other

70%

30%

2025

ESCAP Other

2%

6%

15%

74%

3%

Subregional ratio in Asia-Pacific

Centrial Asia

India Subcontinantal

ASEAN

East Asia

Paciic

3. Container Port throughput

Global container port throught (2019, Mil TEU)

764.2

801.7

811.2

ESCAP Drewry UNCTAD

▪ Global container port volume reached 811 million TEU in 2019(by UNCTAD)

▪ ESCAP estimate is 761 million TEU in 2019, slightly less than the other two institutions

✓ ESCAP reflects import and export volume excluding domestic volume

▪ Global container port traffic volume is expected to continue to grow afterward:

▪ Growth to 5.8% by 2025. and slow down until the 2030

▪ Ports in ESCAP regions continue to increase their share of global port volume: up to 72 % (2025)

Global container port throught (Mil TEU)

764

1076

1213

2019 2025 2030

4. Future steps

4.1 Future working plan

Data Base (for sustainable transport development)

❖ Global trade

❖ GDP

❖ Container fleet and Shipping routes

❖ Port facilities

❖ Data collection and management system

❖ In-depth analysis and study for selected countries such as SIDS in the Pacific

❖ Strengthening cooperation with member countries and relatedorganizations for securing reliable data

Model run and Joint Study

❖ Development scenarios : Scenarios reflecting various economic outlooks(optimistic, pessimistic)

❖ Joint study & Technical assistance : Collaborate with relevant organizationsand countries to develop national port development plan and policyformulation

Ports in the ESCAP region need to preemptively invest in port

development to deal with increasing volumes

▪ An economically, socially and environmentally sustainable port

▪ Ports need to reflect the latest technological achievements and

global agenda such as SDG

In addition to the development of new ports, it is urgent to improve

the productivity of existing facilities and to establish an efficient

multimodal transport system

Establish customized strategy: It is necessary to establish realistic port

development policies that reflect the situation and conditions of the

each member country.

4.2 Conclusion

Thank you

container throughput forecast in the escap region

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