context of congressional elections single member districts roughly equal size (650,000 souls) first...
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Context of Congressional Context of Congressional ElectionsElections
Single member districts Roughly equal size (650,000 souls)First Tuesday in November in even # yearsAustralian ballotMust win 2 elections
Social & Political ContextsSocial & Political Contexts
Amazing Variation– geographic size – Population– Economic base– Ethnicity– Age– Partisanship
Incumb Reelect Rates 1832-Incumb Reelect Rates 1832-19881988
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% of Incumbs defeated % of Incumbs retained
IncumbencyIncumbency
93% of House incumbents are reelected– 1994, 84% of House Democrats were reelected
77% of Senate incumbents are reelected#1 question to ask for congressional
elections, Is there an incumbent?Defining feature of Congress
Web Assignment #7Web Assignment #7
Roll Call- Campaign News– What makes a good candidate?– What makes a close election?
House of RepresentativesHouse of Representatives
61 “competitive” races in 2000– 193 GOP incumbents won, 4 lost– 199 Dem incumbents won, 2 lost– GOP wins 20 of 25 open seats– Dems with 4 of 10 open seats
17 changes of 435
Senate in 2000Senate in 2000
12 toss up races out of 33– GOP 13 of 18 incumbents win– Dems 10 of 11 incumbents win– GOP 0 of 1 on open seats– Dems 3 of 4 on open seats
7 changes
Sources of Incumbent Sources of Incumbent advantageadvantage
Institutions are designed by members who want to get reelected.
Amazing array of resources– Free mail, trips to district, staff– Free facilities for TV and radio ads– Casework
# of Senate Staff, 1830 –1993# of Senate Staff, 1830 –1993Senate Staff
39 82280 424 590
1115
1749
2426
3554
40754138
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4500
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Senate Staff
Election Year Congressional Mailings
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10001 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19
Pieces of Mail in Millions
Is it the MoneyIs it the Money
Average incumbent gets 64.3% of voteFor every $100,00 spent, lose 1.17% of voteFor every $100,00 spent by party, lose
2.73% of voteincumbent House winner spends $700,00incumbent House loser spends 1,300,000
Why Incumbents WinWhy Incumbents Win
Table 5.3, high name recognitionTable 5.7, Voters Contact with CandidatesTable 5.15
– Personal– Performance/experience– District service– Ideology/Policy
Challengers StrategyChallengers Strategy
Table 5.3 name recognitionTable 5.11, Campaign expenditures and
name recognitionTable 5.7, Voters Contact with Candidates
– Where do voters learn about challengers
Table 5.15, Things liked about challengers– What is #1?
The Incumbent’s StrategyThe Incumbent’s Strategy
Discourage serious electoral competition– Herb Kohl
Use casework, trips home, mailings to create perception of invulnerability
Ambitious career politicians and campaign funders are rational
Quality of House Challengers
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50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70+
Incumbent's vote in last election (%)
Form
er
Offic
ehold
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(%)
Electoral Competition and Electoral Competition and Challenger Spending in 1994Challenger Spending in 1994
Challenger’s party vote in last House election, spending by non-incumbent house candidate
<40%, $105,00040-45%, $322,00045-49.9%, $433 ,000Open seat $580,000
Expectations GameExpectations Game
Better the electoral odds, better the challenger and more money
Weak incumbents and open seats attract well funded quality challengers
Strong incumbents attract weak, poorly funded candidates
Strategic Politician HypothesisStrategic Politician Hypothesis
Best candidates, most money go to marginal incumbents, open seats
2nd tier candidates, some money goHopeless, poorly funded candidates run
against strong incumbents
Who is a marginal incumbentWho is a marginal incumbent
Less than 60% of vote in previous electionScandal in last termRepublican in a democratic leaning districtFirst term representative
CampaignsCampaigns
½ of all money is wasted, high uncertaintyWhat issues are importantLow turnoutRandom terror and running scared
– Tom Foley, speaker of the house, 15 terms
Why do incumbents win?Why do incumbents win?
Better known (90% vs 40%Better liked (more familiar)Better funded
Why do challengers win?Why do challengers win?
Make voters aware of incumbents’ shortcomings, their own virtues via mass media
Are well fundedImplications???
Reforming the SystemReforming the System
Term limits– Federal level– State level
Increase competitiveness of elections– Campaign finance reform
Key Issue, how to get more people to run for office!!!
The Two CongressesThe Two Congresses
Representative/elective institution – reelection is never far from members’ minds.
Lawmaking institution– First branch of government – Unique among representative institutions
Explaining the Behavior of Explaining the Behavior of Individual Members Individual Members
Edmund Burke should representative– act like a delegate and follow the wishes of
those who have elected him or her? – Or as a Trustee who decides according to his
or her own best judgment?
Changing Representational Changing Representational RolesRoles
LawmakersDistrict serviceConstituent assistance
3 types of behavior3 types of behavior
Advertising– Nobody’s senator but yours
Credit claiming– Has to be credible– Pork barreling; casework
Position taking– Inherently costly