continuous stakeholder feedback: methodologies for improving adoption and user-friendliness of...
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Continuous Stakeholder Feedback: Methodologies for Improving Adoption
and User-friendliness of Climate Variability Forecasts
Norman E. BreuerVictor E. Cabrera
Peter E. HildebrandMarch 2004
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The Southeast Climate Consortium
A multidisciplinary, multi-institutional initiative among the UF, FSU, UM, AU, UG, and UAH for research, extension, education, and training related to climate-based management of agriculture and natural resources.
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Working at the Interface
Forest Reserve
Small-scaleFarmers
PlantationsClimate Water
Agriculture
People
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The Southeast Climate Consortium
Immediate Objective
Development of a climate-based Decision Support System for farmers available via the Internet
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The Southeast Climate Consortium
• Target Audience:
The Cooperative Extension Service and through them, to all stakeholders in AL, FL & GA
• Funding: NOAA - Office of Global Programs and the Risk Management Agency of the U. S.D.A.
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The SECC Decision Support System
Problem with DSSs*:• non adoption
• short-term use
Due to:• deterministic nature
• exaggerated expectations
• other
*McCown, et al. 2002 Agricultural Systems 74
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The Southeast Climate Consortium
• Florida, Georgia, Alabama
• Agricultural Production1.Peanuts
2.Tomato
3. Livestock
4. Potato
• Water 1.Quality
2.Quantity
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UsersSpecific and
Diverseneeds
End products
Whole FarmModels
TestingPrototypeproducts
ParticipatoryRural Appraisals
Participatory Methodology
Calibration and Validation
Crop models
Climate
models
Participatory Methodology
Adapted fromBastidas 2001
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Feedback Loops
Time
Ado
ptio
n
With constant interaction among research, extension andfarmer, diffusion can “take off”sooner and continue longer
Rogers 1995 modified by J. Ashby, pers. Comm. 2003
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Participatory Rural Appraisal: Sondeo
• Multidisciplinary team
• Rapid appraisal
• Open ended interviews
• Preliminary insight
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Participatory Modeling
• Understanding the farm system
• Preliminary modeling – LP, Dynamic, etc.
• Calibration with stakeholders
• Final modeling
• Validation with independent stakeholders
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Working with Farmers
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Beef Cattle in North Central Florida
• 38 Ranchers preliminary phase
• 12 Ranchers validation phase
• Hypothetical 400-acre ranch
• Management Options– Stocking rate– Ryegrass planting– Hay purchase
• Economic Output
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Beef Cattle in North Central Florida
170
190
210
230
250
270
290
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
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1989
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1991
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1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
YEARS
WINTER
WINTER AVERAGEAverage number of cows in winter = 150
σ = 19.86
μ = 244.27
NIÑA
NIÑO
MO
DE
LE
D H
ER
D S
IZE
(H
EA
D)
Figure 4. Modeled herd size over 40 years of known climate effect.
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Beef Cattle in North Central Florida
185,000
190,000
195,000
200,000
205,000
210,000
215,000
220,000
NIÑA NIÑA NIÑANEUTRAL
NIÑA NIÑO NEUTRALNIÑA
NIÑO NIÑA NEUTRALNEUTRAL
NEUTRALNIÑO
NIÑONEUTRAL
NIÑO NIÑO
FIRST AND SECOND YEAR CLIMATE FORECAST
GR
OS
S M
AT
GIN
+ H
ER
D V
AL
UE
(U
S$)
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
FR
EQ
UE
NC
Y
Figure 3. Two-year economic output values for nine scenarios tested and probability of occurrence.
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Dairy Farms in North Florida
• 21 farmers preliminary phase• 6 focus groups• 3 farmers expected validation phase• Individual farms modeled: dynamic and LP• Novel inclusions
– Markov-Chain cow flow modeling– Environmental interaction (nitrate leaching)– Crop models
• Economic Output
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Dairy Farms in North West FloridaPrototype
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Dairy Farms in North West Florida
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Dairy Farms in North West Florida
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Dairy Farms in North West FloridaOptimization
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Conclusions
• It is possible to develop models with stakeholder involvement
• With participation:- User friendliness
- trustworthiness - better performance with less need for initial input data set• Enhances probability of adoption and use of
climate-based tools and products• Will be added to tools section of SECC DSS