Contra Costa

County

Disproportionality – Examples and Changes

Ray Merritt; Dorothy Powell; Children and Family ServicesResearch and Evaluation

General County Information

• Contra Costa County– Over 1,000,000 in population

with 26% under 18 years old– 9th most populous county in

state– We divide County into 3

geographic areas– Growing at over 1%/year –

County-wide– Some areas in East County

growing at over 12%/year

Child Population Increased over 20,000 since 1998

Total Child Population Ages 0 - 17 Contra Costa County

1998 - 2006

230,000

240,000

250,000

260,000

270,000

280,000

Year

Total

Total 246,508 251,729 254,940 259,678 261,058 262,802 264,710 266,858 268,698

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Ethnicity and Population

Children Ages 0-17 by Ethnicity for Contra Costa County1998 - 2006

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

Year

Black

White

Hispanic

Asian

Nat Amer

Other

Black 30,278 31,078 28,370 29,135 29,106 29,289 29,601 29,910 30,134

White 123,222 123,654 122,352 120,131 118,749 117,469 115,321 113,243 111,009

Hispanic 56,292 58,970 61,680 65,387 67,356 69,812 72,809 75,976 79,155

Asian 32,059 33,185 27,183 28,530 28,565 29,026 29,832 30,637 31,380

Nat Amer 2,659 2,843 982 1,344 1,425 1,577 1,816 2,048 2,267

Other 12,373 13,150 13,855 13,626 13,327 13,039 12,747

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Child Population Trends

• Number of Hispanic youth under age 18 likely to surpass that of White youth sometime around 2014

Extrapolation of White and Hispanic Child Populations in Contra Costa County

0

20,00040,000

60,000

80,000

100,000120,000

140,000

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Year

Nu

mb

er White

Hispanic

Disproportionality and Disparity

• Disproportionality– The overrepresentation of a

particular group (typically referring to ethnicity) in any given area (e.g., Child Welfare System) compared to their proportion in the population (e.g., African Americans = 11% of the youth population, but make up 49% of the youth in Foster Care)

• Disparity– The comparison of one

group to another (e.g., likelihood of a Black youth, compared to a White youth in being referred to CFS)

Disproportionality Example

Racial Disproportionality of Youth in Child Welfare Supervised Foster Care in Contra Costa County

41.3

29.5

11.7

49.6

11.2

32.9

14.1

2.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Black White Hispanic Asian

Percent of ChildPopulation -2006

Percent in Foster Care -1July 2006

Referral Information

• There is disproportionality throughout the Child Welfare System– Referral Incidence Rates (2005)

• Black = 85.7/1000• White = 34.4/1000• Hispanic = 28.3/1000

– Substantiated Referral Incidence Rates (2005)• Black = 16.6/1000 (19.4% of referrals substantiated)• White = 6.9/1000 (20.2% of referrals substantiated)• Hispanic = 6.6/1000 (23.2% of referrals

substantiated)

Racial Disparity

• When we examine the disparity between Whites and Blacks for 2005, we see that:– Referrals: Blacks have a 2.5 times higher

incidence rate– Substantiations: Blacks have a 2.4 times higher

incidence rate– First Entries to Care: Blacks have a 2.9 times

higher incidence rate– In Child Welfare Supervised Foster Care on 1

July 2005: Blacks have a 5.3 times higher incidence rate

First Entry to Care

Incidence Rate of First Entries to Care by Ethnicity in Contra Costa County Child Welfare

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Year

Black

White

Hispanic

Asian

Black 8.69 7.72 7.3 7.55 7.94 7.61 6.59 5.95

White 2.83 2.49 2.26 2.61 2.19 1.99 2.17 2.08

Hispanic 1.97 1.73 1.88 2.23 2.17 2.16 2.5 1.49

Asian 0.84 0.93 0.7 0.95 0.56 1.17 0.1 0.46

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Ra

te/1

00

0 P

op

ula

tio

n

Start work on disparity

In Care Incidence Rates

In Care Incidence Rate per 1000 by Ethnicity

05

1015202530354045

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Asian/Other

Black

Hispanic

Native American

White

Similar to first entries into care, the rates for Black youth in care are decreasing

Start work on disparity

All Ethnicities Show Decreases in Time in Placement: Point-in-

Time• While all

ethnicities show decreased length of average time in placement, there is still disparity– Black youth

have longer time in placement than youth of other ethnicities

Average Duration By Ethnicity (Yrs)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Asian/Other

Black

Hispanic

NativeAmerican

White

Years Decrease in CPE Duration (July 2006 vs July 2001)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Abs Years 2.0 3.0 2.3 2.8 1.6

Percentage 44% 40% 46% 46% 34%

Asian/Other Black Hispanic Native American White

Decreases in Average Time in Placement: Point-in-Time

• Comparing July 1st 2001 to July 1st 2006:– Black Youth (2006: n=892, 49.6%)

• Average time in placement decreased 3 years (40%)

– Native American Youth (2006: n=14, 0.8%)

• Average time in placement decreased 2.8 years (46%)

– Hispanic Youth (2006: n=254, 14.1%)• Average time in placement decreased

2.3 years (46%)– Asian Youth (2006: n=47, 2.6%)

• Average time in placement decreased 2 years (44%)

– White Youth (2006: n=592, 32.9%)• Average time in placement decreased

1.6 years (34%)

Ethnicity Differences

• Thus, comparing children of different ethnicities within the Child Welfare System:– Black children have a higher likelihood of a referral – Blacks and Whites have referrals substantiated at

about the same percentage (20%) while Asian and Hispanics have slightly higher rates (around 24%)

– Black children are more likely to be removed from home and enter child welfare supervised Foster Care

– Black children are likely to stay in care for a longer period of time than children of other ethnicities

Target Area Changes• Since inception in 2002/2003

– Changes in target area (Richmond – defined by zip codes) and target population (Black children under age 5)

Richmond Area Children Under Age 5 Removed from Home Since Start of Disproportionality Training

0

5

10

15

20

25

Q22002

Q32002

Q42002

Q12003

Q22003

Q32003

Q42004

Q12004

Q22004

Q32004

Q42004

Q12005

Q22005

Quarter and Year

Questions?

Contra Costa County - 2006

Children and Family ServicesResearch and Evaluation