contribution to “air quality analysis in the city of teheran” emission inventories to understand...

Emission inventories @ TNO

Contribution to “Air quality analysis in the city of Teheran”

Emission inventories to understand air quality of the present and predict the future

Hugo Denier van der Gon and Peter Builtjes

Air Quality Teheran June 2006Emission inventories @ TNO2

Contents

• TNO organisation• Why make emission inventories?• Which sources? – Construction of an emission inventory• Examples of data base & maps • Satellite data to validate?

• Examples of policy support questions


TNO organisation

• Knowledge in practiceTNO is a knowledge organisation for companies, government bodies and public organisations. The daily work of some 5,000 employees is to develop and apply knowledge. We provide contract research and specialist consultancy as well as grant licences for patents and specialist

software.

• TNO is active in five core areas:

•TNO Quality of Life •TNO Defence, Security and Safety •TNO Science and Industry •TNO Built Environment and Geosciences •TNO Information and Communication Technology


Ambition and outlook of the TNO business unit environmental health and safety

We see• Increasing mobility and industrial activities• Intensification and more complex use of available land • Increasing demands on the quality of the (human) environment

(EU directives) and increased, stricter enforcement• Citizens are better informed, have the right to know and have

become more demanding and critical

TNO - BU Environmental Health and Safety has the ambition to operate in the middle of these

conflicting developments by making science applicable, providing policy support and technological solutions


The need for Emission inventories

• Determine the past and present situation

• Identify (autonomous) changes and trends

• Identify the (relative) importance of sources for (further) reducing the release of pollutants to the environment

• Evaluate achieved emission reductions by policies, technological improvements, etc.

• Input to explore further options for emission reductions including costs of measures

• Input for predictive modeling of environmental distribution, exposure of ecosystems, source–receptor relationships


Concept – DPSIR: The causal chain of Air Pollution

Pressures

State

Impact

ResponsesDrivin

g forces

e.g. quality

e.g. health,

ecosystems

Pressures

ResponsesDrivin

g forces

Causes

(economic growth, increasing mobility)

Emissions of

pollutants

Policy

(e.g., regulation of emissions, filters, new

technologies

PM10, NOx, ……


Emission sources…


We distinguish two types of sources: Point sources and diffuse sources- Generally speaking diffuse sources are difficult to measure, quantify and control.

Example: Sources of PM emission in industry

• Point sources (canalized and emitted by stacks)• Production process units• Combustion for energy purposes (liquid and solid fuels)

• Diffuse sources• Ventilation of production buildings• Production in open air• Material handling operations (storage and transport)

whats in a name


Example of TNO project:COORDINATED EUROPEAN PARTICULATE MATTER

EMISSION INVENTORY PROGRAM (CEPMEIP)

• Activity_ID

• Sector

• Location

• Time

Activities

• AR-Value

• EF_ID

• Technology_ID

• TSP PM10 PM2.5

• EF-Value

Emission Factors

• Technology_ID

• Description

Technology level

Covers all known anthropogenic emission causes of primary particulate matter; ~ 200 source categories - For each source category TSP, PM10 & PM2.5 emission factors derived.

Emission factor : Representative index number that expresses the emission of a pollutant per unit of activity (e.g., g PM10 / GJ fuel)

Emission is highly determined by emission control measures – technology level information is crucial!

By source

• By country /grid

Emissions


To keep an overview, sources are aggregated by type:Source sector as used for the gridded emission maps. Classification is based on the

SNAP level 1 system with a more detailed split in SNAP 7 (road transport).

Source sectors Description

1 Combustion Energy sector, utilities, refinaries

2 Combustion small sources (residential)

3 Combustion in industry

4 Process emissions (industry)

5 Mining and extraction of fossil fuels

6 Solvent use, use of products

7 Road transport

71 Road transport gasoline

72 Road transport diesel

73 Road transport LPG

741) Road transport non-exhaust (volatilization)

752) Road transport non-exhaust (tire, break and road wear)

8 Non-road transport

9 Waste processing

10 Agriculture 1) Relevant for NMVOC emissions 2) Relevant for PM emissions


But…in underlying inventory much detail is necessary! Example combustion in industry:

Fuels (influence on emissions due to quality and composition):

• Heavy fuel oil• Lighter fuel oil• Gas • Coal, brown coal, peat• Wood• Industrial waste

Installation types (influence on emissions due to emission limits, removal efficiencies, Emission control technologies)

• Autoproducers (> 50 MWth)• Other large boilers (50 - 300 MWth)• Large and small furnaces where

combustion gases and proces emissions are emitted through the same stack (covered by Industrial process emissions, 10 - 300 MWth)

• Small Boilers (< 50 MWth)


Results: European PM10 emissions Present policies 2010 (incl. Kyoto)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

WesternEurope

Central &EasternEurope

Russia &Western NIS

kton PM10 10 Agriculture

09 Waste sector

08 Other mobile sources

07 Road transport

06 Product use

05 Extraction fossil fuels

04 Processes industry

03 Combustion industry

02 Combustion other

01 Combustion energy supply

Despite differences, all sectors contribute!!


Results: European antropogenic PM2.5 emissions in 2000 including international shipping

Source: Visschedijk and Denier van der Gon, TNO, 2005


Sulphur dioxide (SO2) in Europe - I

• The main emission sources of SO2 are combustion processes, especially the combustion of coal and heavy fuel oil. In addition there are non-ferrous metals smelting processes of which the ores are generally in sulphide form.

• Activity data for fossil fuel combustion are taken from the IEA Energy Statistics [IEA 2003]. The IEA distinguishes several coal ranks and heavy and medium distillate fuel oils, as well as different types of lighter fuels and gasses.

• Emission factors - Combustion related SO2 emission by fuel type i and process j is calculated according to:

• Emissionfuel(i) = [Usefuel(i) x Sulphur contentfuel(i) - Sulphur retentionprocess(j)] x Removal efficiencyprocess(j)

• Values per country, by fuel type and by process for sulphur contents, sulphur retention in ashes and removal efficiencies have been taken from RAINS 7.2. [Cofala et al. 1998]. (Not yet available for Iran)


Sulphur dioxide (SO2) in Europe - IINEW_cc_SNAP_SOx incl RUS_TNO (17471 GG)

69%

6%

16%

5%

2% 0%0%2%

0%0%

Energy sector, utilities, refinaries

Fossil fuels, small sources

Fossil fuels, industry

Process emissions

Mining

Solvent use, use of products

Road transport

Non-road transport

Waste processing

Agriculture

Source: Visschedijk and Denier van der Gon, TNO, 2005


Trends….

• Importance of sources shifts over time! • What is <10% today may dominate emissions in the future.

Past Present


Global Trend In Motor Vehicles

1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Millions of Vehicles

Motorcycles Commercial Vehicles Cars


2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

NOx

PM0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

% reduction

Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro IV Euro V

Trends in Heavy-duty Vehicles Emission Reduction In Europe– In 2010 emissions per vehicle are ~10% of their 1980-90 level


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

PM2.5 (EU(15) + Norway,Switzerland)

PM2.5 Central and EasternEurope

Em

issi

on

(M

ton

nes

)

1 - Energy transformation

2 - Residential combustion

3 - Industrial combustion

4 - Industrial processes

5 - Prod. & distr. of fossil fuels

6 - Product use

7 - Road transport

8 - Non-road transport

9 - Waste disposal

10 - Agriculture

PM2.5 emission in Europe in 1995

Mobile sources contribute 33% and 14%

Source contributions are technology level dependent and therefore vary by region


Road transport

• Large activity growth• Decreasing tail pipe emissions due to technological improvements• None-tail pipe emissions (wear of tires etc.) follow the trend of

acticity growth • Relative importance of non-tail pipe is increasing

To make an inventory of road transport emissions we need to know:• Activity data – fuel consumption (by type: diesel, gasoline, LPG) by

vehicle category (passenger cars, HDV, LDV, motorcycles)• fuel quality / composition (S content, Pb, ..)• technology level of fleet by year (emission limits, requirements)• Split in number of km driven urban / rural


Emission inventories for AQ Teheran – what is needed?

• Activity_ID

• Sector

• Location

• Time

Activities

• AR-Value

• Activity_ID

• Technology_ID

• Penetration

Select_Techn

• EF_ID

• Technology_ID

• Pollutant

• EF-Value

EmissionFactors• Technology_ID

• Description

Technologies

Tables of the relational TEAM database need to be filled – asking for 1) activity (statistical) data on energy consumption, industrial production,

….. 2) technologies present in Iran and their relative importance (penetration); 3) technology specific emission factors.


Possible Approach:First order draft inventory

• Activity_ID

• Sector

• Location

• Time

Activities

• AR-Value

• Activity_ID

• Technology_ID

• Penetration

Select_Techn

• EF_ID

• Technology_ID

• Pollutant

• EF-Value

EmissionFactors• Technology_ID

• Description

TechnologiesDerived from Previous TNO studies


Emission inventories for AQ Teheran – what is needed?

Additional information on

• Spatial location of sources to make emission maps

• Technical information on important point sources such as stack height, heat output

• Lower resolution and detail at the national scale to model background AQ, higher resolution and more accurate at the city scale


Policy support examples

• Which sources contribute most to high pollutant (limit exceedance) days

• What would be a good indicator of health relevant exposure

• Modelling of the impact on ambient concentrations due to planned infrastructural activities such as new industrial areas & additional roads

• Source receptor matrices on a national and regional scale

• Quantification of the fraction that can be mitigated by national/local measures

• Advise on local measures to comply with limit values

• Cost-effectiveness of various measures (e.g. transport vs industry)

• Scenario analysis – backcasting & forecasting: what emissions are expected in 2010-2020 provided the known autonomous measures and/or signed protocols, policies etc.


Thank you for your attention

For more information or [email protected] & [email protected]

TNO, Apeldoorn, The Netherlands

contribution to “air quality analysis in the city of teheran” emission inventories to understand...

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