Convergence, media density and Africa’s Information Society

Guy Berger, Rhodes University

1 September 2003

What we’ll cover

• Information society context

• Media density

• Commercialisation

• Media coalescence and convergence

• South Africa experience

• Prospects in Africa

1. Info Society context

Us and Information

• We tend to assume that info is vital for: – Democracy/despotism

• Why? Write down a reason

– Development/underdevelopment• Why? Write down a reason

• African media’s place in the role of info:– Reactionary or progressive?– Mainstream or marginal?

2. Media Density

Conceptualising Media Density

• What would it refer to? Write a definition

• First World and Third World:– Info overload vs Info starvation.– Media -> identity, vs Media -> low impact.– Media -> politics, vs Politics -> media.– Media as economics, vs Fragile media.

Density = quality or quantity?

• Write down 2 arguments for why,

wrt to Africa’s politics and economics,– the quality of content is more important

than the volume of content.

• Write down 2 arguments for why– quantity is overall more important

My view:

• “More” media = prospects for quality:– Schechter: more you watch, less you know– Berger: the more there is, more you can find

• Africa’s priority is to grow its media industry!

• Aim should be to build media density.

How???

• Coming up:– What drives media development?– Can media grow faster than the general

economy?

• First, write down 2 points for each topic:– Political preconditions for media growth– Economic preconditions– Sociological preconditions– Technological preconditions

Analysis: Media Density

• Modernisation theorists looked at:– Urbanisation, literacy, newspaper sales,

radio ownership, cinema attendance, telephones per head, TV set ownership,

– Implicit in this: • Tech Distribution (sets per 1000 people)• Tech Usage (sales, calls, paper consumption)

– Spending on information (% of GNP)– Info workers as % of occupations

Deconstructing density

• Distinguish between:

– Media Provision• More media in the society

– Media Consumption• More use of the media

• For me: density works at both levels

Growth on the supply side:

• Give 3 examples, then look at mine:

• More media by expanding existing:– More pages, new supplements– Faster, more frequent delivery & turn-around– Longer news bulletins

» cntd …..

Growth on the supply side:

• More media thru increase in outlets:– New titles in a stable, sister stations,

greenfields ventures

• More media thru increased reach:– wider signal distribution, reach extra

audience outlets, syndication, more possibilities for advertisers.

• More media thru new platforms: – (eg. web, cellphones, electronic billboards)

Growth on the demand side

• Give 3 examples, then look at mine:

• Access: (literacy, language)

• Availability of receivers: (sets, phones)

• Awareness: (result of marketing)

• Appropriateness:– Timing, content appeal and use-value.

• Advertising: (ad-readiness by sellers)

• Affordability: (elasticity of budget items)

Which is more important?

• Deepening media density depends on both the supply & demand side working at optimum levels.

But:

• Does supply drive demand, or• Does demand drive supply?

Write down 2 reasons in favour of:– “Media supply drives demand”, – And “Media demand drives supply”.

Complex linkage

• Consumers can increase time with media, or imbibe extra media by sharing others’ intake.– So demand can increase, without any increase in supply.

• And, increased production does not necessarily mean more consumption!– You can add inserts to a paper, who reads them?

But whichever leads, ultimately, expanded supply is needed if media

density is really to show an increase

3. Looking at the supply-side

Growing media supply

• Media grows through new products or expansion of existing ones.

• The demand market is a both a constraint and an opportunity.

• We can pinpoint conditions for growing supply, relatively independent of demand.

Growth is facilitated by:

• Politically enabling environment (eg. pluralistic policies in broadcast)– Conditions increasingly favourable

• Economic context & possibilities

• Economic strategies:– Commercialisation– Concentration & centralisation

• Tech (eg. FM, dtp, web, convergence)

Eco’s context & possibs:

• McCoombs’ Constancy Factor– Media in USA was never > 5% GNP– Media spend per household also 5% max

• Implications:– New media have to take from old media.– Re-slicing of a fixed ad and audience pie.– People don’t increase their total media

consumption, instead they switch between “Functional Equivalents”.

Africa’s context

• We come off a low base (less than 5%)• Also have potential to export• In the Info Age, industry has to grow!

• Unlike the USA, we are open to role of extra-market resources for growth – eg. volunteers in community radio, state subsidy for public broadcasters or grassroots media.

Economic strategies

Commercialization = problem in North

Oligopolies & alliances (= barriers to entry) Commoditization (= sensation, expense) Conservatism (= panders to prejudice) Cultural ethnocentrism and narrowness

Economic strategies

Commercial positive role in the South?

Develop dynamism outside of moribund states?

Democratic significance independent of govts? Good for governance & wider economic growth.

Small markets, but low labour costs Eg. local content can be competitive to imports.

Economic strategies

Commercial positive role in the South?

Leapfrog into new markets (eg. cellular).

Retain space for non-commercial facilitation.

Incredible info riches lying waiting to be “mined”.

Commerce and African media

• Much growth nowadays is market-driven. • Services the elite. • Cherry picking (= the poor are neglected).• = Limitation in terms of democracy & devt.• Knowledge Gap theory: elites use the info.

But • no point in shared info-poverty,• An un-informed elite benefits no one.

Commercialism’s children

• Coalescence:– Industry level, – Organizational level

• Convergence:– Technological level

• Both of them: – Reduce costs– Expand output

• A blessing or a curse?

Coalescence

• Merger, acquisitions, ownership.

• Alliances and 3rd ventures.

• Collaborations:• Marketing• Content-sharing• Research• Purchasing inputs

Examples from SA

• Joint advertising sales• Cross-language publishing – eg. Naspers• Fusion – eg. Business Report• Piggy-backing – eg. Sun• Newsrooms – Cape Newspapers• Audience data-mining & sale – Sunday Times

• Conclusion: positive for Media Density

4. Convergence

Significance

Digitalisation and Networking =

Media content costly to produce,

But cheap to reproduce.

USA example

Time Warner and AOL merger

Bid to control content & distribution platforms Various Telco’s looking at content link-ups

Effect on media density? Too early to tell

Convergence in media

Print P rintB roadcast B roadcast

O nline O nline

Examples in USA

• Chicago Tribune, Tampa Tribune, Washington Post

• Combining newspaper, radio, TV and web.– Mainly content-sharing after production, – A degree of production integration.

• Results: – Less cost-effective than expected.– More, and richer, content outcomes.

Examples in SA

History of Web: 1995 ->• Web sites emerged as added-platform publishing• Portal development & e-commerce aspects. But 2000 ->: • Medium neglected: poor interactivity, multi-media.• Poor revenue and sustainability.

• Websites now just add-ons, brand-building role• Small – but strategically NB - incr in density

More examples in SA

Production convergence:

• Most print/broadcast + web were failures at integrated newsrooms.– “Ghetto” mentalities too hard to change. – Convergence -> diverged operations -> re-

location but still no real integration. – Web remains picking up crumbs.

More examples in SA

Production convergence:

• Bi-media experiment at SABC failed:– radio = “Cinderella”, diluted output quality– Hard to train, hard to manage.

Indications

• Convergence is thus not a panacea for increasing Media Density

• Technology promise is not realised

• But – don’t write it off yet …

Glimmers of hope

• Web advertising is growing.

• Non-media groups are now web-publishers.

• Co-ordinated multi-platform synergies evident in Big Brother.

• Database-driven multiple media publishing is growing.

Glimmers of hope

• Cellphone platforms show potential.

• Wi-fi is emerging.

• Connectivity increasing, costs declining

• More online users each day.

5. Overview

Context: Africa

• Poor results from Pana– Due to old politics, eco’s, analogue media

• Now there is increasing democracy and economic integration across continent

• Prospects for more media?– Good global and African preconditions– Coalescence proceeding– Convergence not dead, just beginning to walk

Summing up (a)

We have:

• Looked at the Big Picture:– Media’s place in information society

• Analysed concept of media density:– Media production, and media consumption

• Assessed political conditions:– Generally more positive for media growth.

Summing up (b)

• Looked at economic trends and conditions:– Commercialisation, coalescence effects

• Taken stock of technology:– Track record of convergence, limits & potential

Conclusion

• African media’s reach and role is changing …

• Will we lead or lag in relation to the political, economic, and tech possibilities?

• It depends on our information and understanding, and our ability to communicate this.

• So, it is partly up to us!

Thank you

http://journ.ru.ac.za/staff/guy/fulltext/density.ppt

See also: http://journ.ru.ac.za/staff/guy/Research/Democracy/moremedia.htm