Topics  

•  A  VC  Perspec.ve  •  Disrup.ve  Innova.on  &  Accelera.ng  Change  

•  Energy  Market  Intersec.on  

Entrepreneurship  Overview  

•  More  innova.on  now  than  ever  

•  Globaliza.on  •  Entrepreneurs  are  everywhere  •  Customers  and  partners  

•  Network  Effects  

DFJ  Global  Network  

Deal  Flow,  Market  Intelligence,  Business  Development,  150  Professionals  

DJIA  –  founded  in  a  recession  

Topics  

DISRUPTION  

Evermore Moore

Tech Innovation Grows Exponentially

Source: Ray Kurzweil

Molecular Electronics

Year

Logarithmic Plot

Innerva.ng  Cozy  Industries  

Global  Network  Effects  Further  Accelera.ng  Change  

Users

0!

2!

4!

6!

8!

10!

12!

14!

0! 1! 2! 3! 4! 5! 6! 7! 8! 9! 10! 11! 12! 13! 14! 15! 16! 17! 18!

Millions!

Months from First Users

A Natural Experiment

Photo courtesy of Rebekka Guoleifsdottir

THEME: Switching Atoms for Bits Digital Presence Tools Soar as Flights are Grounded

Photo courtesy of Rebekka Guoleifsdottir

 During the 5 days, Skype users made over 20 million more video call minutes than normal  The same time as 42,000 flights from London to NYC

 Over 12 billion Skype-to-Skype calls per month  36% include Video  50x more video minutes than YouTube uploads

THEME: Switching Atoms for Bits P2P versus Centralized Servers

•  A search engine without servers or web crawlers •  Uses idle cycles in the cloud

•  Compared to 30,000 servers •  700K fewer lbs of CO2/day •  Like removing 35K cars from the road

Where does all the water go? Network Effects in Energy Markets

•   Solar  •   Wind  •   Hydro      •   Geothermal  

•   Smart  Grid  •   Meter  •   Transmission  

• Biochemical  • Thermochemical  

•     LighGng  •     HVAC  •     TransportaGon  •     Bldg  Materials  

• BaKery    • Ultracap  • Fuel  Cell  

•     Water  •     Agriculture  •     PesGcides  •     Waste  •     Emissions  

DFJ Cleantech Portfolio GENERATION DISTRIBUTION STORAGE EFFICIENCY FUELS AND

CHEMICALS RESOURCE

MANAGEMENT

Efficiency Pure Electric Cars

China today…

Cost $200 - 450 Speed 16-25 mph Power 350-750 W (1 hp) Range 20-40 miles Efficiency 35-45 miles/kWh

Sou

rce:

Jon

atha

n W

einh

ert (

Che

vron

)

Sources: Jonathan Weinert (Chevron), E-bikes: Jamerson and Benjamin “Electric Bike World Report (2007 edition)”, Passenger cars: China Bureau of Statistics, Motorcycles: Ohara, Honda Annual Report, Feng An (2010), iCET, Pike Research (2010)

First commercial e-bikes launched (Shanghai, Crane)

Gasoline scooters banned in several cities, 53K scrapped in Shanghai

E2W sales surge after SARS outbreak

China passes law granting E2Ws right to bike lanes

Beijing repeals ban on e-bikes, Guangzhou bans all motorized two-wheelers

Best selling vehicle in China…

$ / 1

00km

Sources: Jonathan Weinert (Chevron), Interviews with Shanghai E2W and motorcycle retailers. Assumptions: 2007$, fuel economy: e-bike=15Wh/km, scooter=30km/l, compact car 10km/l. Fuel cost: gasoline cost=4.5RMB/l, electricity cost=0.86RMB/kWh, bus fare=2RMB/trip. Vehicle lifetime: bicycle and e-bike=7yr, scooter and motorcycle=10yr, car=15yrs.

TCO for China

Source: Feng An (2010), Innovation Center for Energy and Transportation

Made in China – Low Speed EVs

Efficiency Cumula.ve  %  of  total  U.S.  electricity  use  

Accelera.ng  Change….not  Just  IT  

  Computation

  Storage

  Networking

  Evolution

  Proteins crystallized

  Imaging resolution

  Genes mapped

Dickerson’s Law: Known 3D Protein Structures

Rapid  Growth  in  Genes  Sequenced  

The Human Genome Project

Gene  Synthesis:  Bea.ng  Moore’s  Law  

Source: Rob Carlson

Sources: Rob Carlson, Biolytic

A T G C

DNA  Synthesis  Fabs  

Dawn  of  New  Era  

Green,  Clean  Machine  –  Code  Comes  Alive  

Pharmaceuticals

Chemicals

Biofuels

T A G C

Sunlight

Plant Biomass

CO2

DNA Synthesizer

Synthetic Chromosome

+90%  of  all  Organic  Chemicals  come  from  Petroleum  and  Natural  Gas  

Awakening giants

Design, engineer, evolve

Sugars   1,4-­‐Butanediol  (BDO)  

Danny Hillis, The Pattern on the Stone

“The greatest achievement of our technology may well be the creation of tools that allow us to go beyond engineering – that allow us to create more than we can understand.”

Beyond Engineering

a rare event with extreme impact that affords retrospective predictability.

Black Swan Events

“Quantum computers have the potential to solve problems that would take a classical computer longer than the age of the universe.”

— Professor David Deutsch, Oxford

Black Swan in Computing?

Efficiency Summary  

•  Accelera.ng  Technological  Change  

-­‐  Interdisciplinary  Renaissance  

-­‐  IT  innervates  trillion  dollar  markets  

-­‐  Perpetual  driver  of  disrup.on  ⇒   Virtuous  cycle  for  entrepreneurs  ⇒   a  great  .me  to  build  new  companies  

Thank  You  

•  Email: SJ@DFJ.com •  flickr: Jurvetson •  Old text blog: jurvetson.blogspot.com