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Never miss a bus again with this one crazy trick Cooper Sloan

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Page 1: Cooper Sloan Never miss a bus again with this one crazy trickcourses.csail.mit.edu/18.337/2017/projects/sloan_cooper/presentation.pdfTrader Joe's Beacon Boston Common AMC Loews Boston

Never miss a bus again with this one crazy trick

Cooper Sloan

Page 2: Cooper Sloan Never miss a bus again with this one crazy trickcourses.csail.mit.edu/18.337/2017/projects/sloan_cooper/presentation.pdfTrader Joe's Beacon Boston Common AMC Loews Boston

Background

- Undergrad: MIT, BS in Computer Science- Masters: MIT, MEng in Artificial Intelligence

Page 3: Cooper Sloan Never miss a bus again with this one crazy trickcourses.csail.mit.edu/18.337/2017/projects/sloan_cooper/presentation.pdfTrader Joe's Beacon Boston Common AMC Loews Boston

Overview

◻Problem

◻Risks/Challenges

◻Implementation

◻Final Design

◻Takeaways

Page 4: Cooper Sloan Never miss a bus again with this one crazy trickcourses.csail.mit.edu/18.337/2017/projects/sloan_cooper/presentation.pdfTrader Joe's Beacon Boston Common AMC Loews Boston

Problem

- Bus schedules are unreliable

- Complicated interactions- Deep learning may have

the answer

Page 5: Cooper Sloan Never miss a bus again with this one crazy trickcourses.csail.mit.edu/18.337/2017/projects/sloan_cooper/presentation.pdfTrader Joe's Beacon Boston Common AMC Loews Boston

Problem cont.

Page 6: Cooper Sloan Never miss a bus again with this one crazy trickcourses.csail.mit.edu/18.337/2017/projects/sloan_cooper/presentation.pdfTrader Joe's Beacon Boston Common AMC Loews Boston

Challenge 1: Feature Selection

- Clumping- Dwell Time- Travel Time- Schedule Adherence- Temporal Features

Page 7: Cooper Sloan Never miss a bus again with this one crazy trickcourses.csail.mit.edu/18.337/2017/projects/sloan_cooper/presentation.pdfTrader Joe's Beacon Boston Common AMC Loews Boston

Challenge 2: Noisy/Incomplete Data

- Urban Valleys- 1: Naive Approach- 2: Interpolation

Page 8: Cooper Sloan Never miss a bus again with this one crazy trickcourses.csail.mit.edu/18.337/2017/projects/sloan_cooper/presentation.pdfTrader Joe's Beacon Boston Common AMC Loews Boston
Page 9: Cooper Sloan Never miss a bus again with this one crazy trickcourses.csail.mit.edu/18.337/2017/projects/sloan_cooper/presentation.pdfTrader Joe's Beacon Boston Common AMC Loews Boston

Challenge 3: Model Design

- Train/test split- Data partitioning- Routes- Architecture- Evaluation

Page 10: Cooper Sloan Never miss a bus again with this one crazy trickcourses.csail.mit.edu/18.337/2017/projects/sloan_cooper/presentation.pdfTrader Joe's Beacon Boston Common AMC Loews Boston

Iteration

- Overfitting- Signal to noise- Temporal data

Page 11: Cooper Sloan Never miss a bus again with this one crazy trickcourses.csail.mit.edu/18.337/2017/projects/sloan_cooper/presentation.pdfTrader Joe's Beacon Boston Common AMC Loews Boston

Architecture

Page 12: Cooper Sloan Never miss a bus again with this one crazy trickcourses.csail.mit.edu/18.337/2017/projects/sloan_cooper/presentation.pdfTrader Joe's Beacon Boston Common AMC Loews Boston

Results

Page 13: Cooper Sloan Never miss a bus again with this one crazy trickcourses.csail.mit.edu/18.337/2017/projects/sloan_cooper/presentation.pdfTrader Joe's Beacon Boston Common AMC Loews Boston

Comparison- Knet

- Pytorch- Imperative- Easy Debugging- More expressiveness

- Mocha- Tensorflow/Keras- Declarative- Easy to write (usually...)- Hard Debugging- Good for simple models- Less expressive

Page 14: Cooper Sloan Never miss a bus again with this one crazy trickcourses.csail.mit.edu/18.337/2017/projects/sloan_cooper/presentation.pdfTrader Joe's Beacon Boston Common AMC Loews Boston

Summary

- Predict bus arrival times using neural networks

- GPS data from MBTA- Use travel time between stops as

features- 3 hidden layers + RNN