cop19: pledges vs. implemented action - where are we really heading?
DESCRIPTION
At COP19, Ecofys consultants Nadine Braun and Hanna Fekete presented first results of the latest analysis the Climate Action Tracker team conducted. While the last years the team mainly focused on the pledge assessment, this year they also started looking into the efforts that countries take to achieve their emission reduction targets. There are a lot of activities on national level, innovative climate policies have been implemented in developing and developed countries. However, there is still a need for further action in most of the countries, since only two were rated to achieve their targets with currently implemented targets. The Climate Action Tracker is a science-based assessment by Ecofys, Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) that provides regularly updated information on countries’ reduction proposals. The presentation was given on November 16, at COP19 in Warsaw.TRANSCRIPT
Climate Action Tracker side event
Pledges vs. implemented action -where are we really heading?
Warsaw, 16 November 2013
Outline
▶ Global overview - Nadine Braun, Ecofys
▶ Country examples
� EU, Australia, Japan - Marion Vieweg, Climate Analytics
� US, China - Hanna Fekete, Ecofys
▶ Implications - Bill Hare, Climate Analytics
Climate Action Tracker
• Pledges:
– Up-to-date assessment of national emission reduction proposals
– What is the level of ambition?
• Current emission trends:
– Assessment of implemented climate policies
– Are current activities sufficient to meet the pledge?
www.climateactiontracker.org
> Temperature: Translation into
global emissions pathways and
impact on temperature
Assessment: pledges and policies not yet sufficient
Inadequate
Medium
Sufficient
Role model
Rating of pledge
Likelihood of achieving pledge with implemented policies
Likely
Unlikely
? Unclear
?
?
Not assessed
?
?
>
>
>
> BAU>Pledge Pledge > BAU
EU: Achieving target with no additional action
• No additional policies required for the EU to achieve their 2020 target
• Emissions trend since 1990 is expected to continue until 2020
• Many policy initiatives that are in progress could further decrease emissions, although a resurgence of coal use could counteract this
Australia: Backtracking on promising progress
• New government about to repeal ambitious legislation put in place in 2011, that would have led to meet the 5% target
• Proposed new climate policy - lacks the resources to meet the target reduction goal and instead could lead to emissions of about 12% above 2000 levels by 2020
Japan: Joining the land of low ambition
• New 2020 target equivalent to no emissions reduction relative to 2011
• New target increases the 2020 UNEP Emissions Gap by 3-4%
• Little additional effort needed to meet new target (64 MtCO2e)
• Change in ambition cannot be fully justified by ‘no nuclear’ scenario
China: close to achieving pledge but still rising emissions
• Pledge level remains unclear in absolute terms and is rated Inadequate
• Close to achieving the pledge, still strong emissions increase
• Strong action in renewable energy and efficient industry
US: Implemented policies insufficient to meet pledge
• Pledge inadequate and not achieved with implemented policies as of September 2012
• Climate Change Action Plan announced June 2013 could get the US there, if fully implemented
• Variety of individual activities at federal and state level but not yet with the required level of ambition and effectiveness
www.climateactiontracker.org
Inadequate
Medium
Sufficient
Role model
Rating of pledge
Likelihood of achieving pledge with implemented policies
Likely
Unlikely
? Unclear
?
?
Not assessed
?
?
>
>
>
> BAU>Pledge Pledge > BAU