cop21 presentation 3 the goals of countries ford & eric
TRANSCRIPT
COP21Presentation 3The Goals of CountriesFord & Eric
Caps and How They Are Set
Governments are slowly submitting their post 2020 targets
Dubbed “Intended Nationally Determined Contributions” Or INDC’s
These targets will form the basis of any agreement that may come out of Paris
Comparing Ambitions
• Brazil and EU taken on strongest targets
• India, Russia, and China on the weaker end of spectrum
• Lets look closer
United States Goals:
-17% reduction by 2020 based on 2005 levels -26% by 2025
Ambitious but possible goals EPA’s Clean Power Plan appears to put US on track Should be able to meet both goals with additional policies
States may independently try to reduce emissions
Uncertainty if next president will carry on Obama’s policies
Held back by congressional deadlock and climate change skepticism
China Predominantly coal powered (68% as of 2013)
Aiming for non-fossil fuel sources to make up 20% installed power by 2030
Driven by improving air pollution
Modest INDCs may be showing that China is progressing forward in its stance on climate change After years of resisting
The EU
Goals -20% reduction by 2020 based on 1990 levels -30% by 2030
Highest overall emissions reduction goals
Should be able to meet 2020 and 2030 goals without much change Well-developed environmental policy already in place Continues to implement renewable energy
Claims that international credits won’t be needed to reach goals This will likely change because the EU has supported the carbon
credit market in the past
India
One of the major sources of global emissions over the coming decades
Developing country Problem of alleviating mass poverty (275 million) Country might be unwilling to commit to an emissions
target that may constrain economic growth
On track for non-fossil fuel sources to make up 58% installed power by 2030
In COP21 will likely call for financial assistance in green development
India’s Forecast
Brazil
Most ambitious INDC submitted
Plans to increase non-fossil energy to 45% of 2030 energy usage Emphasis on
biofuel: looking to make up 18% by 2030
Motivated by effects of climate change, particularly drought
Russia
Goals: -15% reduction by 2020 based on 1990 levels -25% by 2030
Actually allows for 71% emissions growth compared to today 1990 levels apparently refer to entire Soviet Union Emissions have fallen since breakup of the Soviet Union
Unwilling to take on ambitious goals despite international pressure Political funding from oil and gas industries Government hostile to climate change mitigation
Russia’s Forecast
Sources
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
UNFCCC
World Bank
IMF
Questions?