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TRANSCRIPT
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COPERT TrainingEmissions from the road transport sector
EMISIA SA presentation
Technical Assistance for Developed Analytical Basis for
Formulating Strategies and Actions towards
Low Carbon Development
October 2019, Ankara
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Why transport emissions are so important
• Transport represents almost a quarter of Europe's greenhouse gas emissions and is the main cause of air pollution in cities
• The transport sector has not seen the same gradual decline in emissions as other sectors
• The only sector with emissions remaining higher than in 1990!
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Evolution of GHG emissions by sector in the EU
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GHG emissions from transport
• Transport accounts for 1/3 of total energy consumption and 1/4 of total GHG emissions
• Road transport alone contributes to 1/5 of total EU GHG emissions
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Year: 2016 draft
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Contribution of transport to total emissions
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Year: 2016 draft
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Air pollutant emissions from transport
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Emissions are decreasing, however…
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Air Quality exceedances due to traffic
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Average CO2 emissions and targets for cars and vans
• Car and van manufacturers have already met their specific CO2 emissions targets for 2015/2017
• More effort is needed to meet the emissions targets for 2020/2021
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Real-world CO2 emissions are different
• There is a gap between real-world and official CO2 emissions / fuel consumption
• The gap is increasing over the years!
Company cars: 45%
All data sources: 42%
Private cars: 39%
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Real-world diesel PC NOx emissions
• Significant exceedances up to Euro 5
• Expected reductions at Euro 6 step
• Still limited evidence –models under revision
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Air policy in Europe
• The EU has introduced and implemented various legal instruments with the objective of achieving levels of air quality that do not adversely impact human health and the environment
• The overarching policy framework is the EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (TSAP), adopted by the Commission in 2005
• National Emission Ceilings Directive
• Air Quality Directive on ambient air quality and cleaner air for Europe regulates concentrations of SO2, NO2, PM10, PM2.5, CO, O3, benzene and lead.
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Transport targets up to 2050 (1/2)
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Target Date Source
Transport GHG (including international aviation, excluding international maritime shipping)- 20 % ↓ (versus 2008)- 60 % ↓ (versus 1990)
20302050
Transport White Paper, 2050 Roadmap
10 % share of renewable energy in the transport sector final energy consumption for each Member State
2020 Renewable Energy Directive
Fuel suppliers to reduce lifecycle GHG of road transport fuel 6–10 % ↓ (versus 2010 fossil fuels)
2020 Fuel Quality Directive
Target average type-approval emissions for new passenger cars- 130 g CO2/km- 95 g CO2/km
20152021
EC Regulation 443/2009
Target average type-approval emissions for new light vans- 175 g CO2/km- 147 g CO2/km
20172020
EC Regulation 510/2011
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Transport targets up to 2050 (2/2)
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Target Date Source
Road freight over 300 km shift to rail/ waterborne transport- 30 % shift- 50 % shift
20302050
Transport White Paper
Use of conventionally fuelled cars in urban transport- 50 % ↓
- 100 % ↓
20302050
Transport White Paper
CO2 free city logistics in major urban centres 2030 Transport White Paper
The majority of medium-distance passenger transport should go by rail
2050 Transport White Paper
EU CO2 emissions of maritime bunker fuels 40 % ↓ (versus 2005)
2050 Transport White Paper
40 % share of low carbon sustainable fuels in aviation 2050 Transport White Paper
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Emisia presentation
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• Spin-off of AUTh/LAT since March 2008
• Head office in Thessaloniki; Office in Brussels
• Areas of expertise:
Who we are, what we do
Testing
• LD & HD vehicles
• PEMS
• Engine and vehicle dyno (LAT)
Assessments
• Data collection, processing and analysis
• Vehicle & Emissions Modelling & Projecting
• Policy Impact Assessment
• Vehicle Technology Evaluation
Utilities
• SIBYL
• COPERT
• COPERT Street Level
•Wiseride
• Intelair
• Triten
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Interactions between the three areas
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Testing Assessments Utilities
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TESTING
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• Under RDE-compliant on-road trips, diesel NOx emissions from diesel vehicles showed average levels varying from 5 to 16 times the Euro 6 limit.
• NOx emissions of diesel vehicles driven in more dynamic driving conditions increased further to reach a range from 26 to 40 times the Euro 6 limit.
Real-world emissions testing with PEMS
16 x Emission limit
40 x Emission limit
5 x Emission limit
26 x Emission limit
• HORIBA OBS ONE• LDV, HDV• THC, CO, CO2, NO or NOx, PN• Accreditation in 2019
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PEMS data infrastructure
• Data organization & retrieval
• PEMS IT System design & development
• System update & maintenance
PEMS data measurements – vehicle distribution
PEMS System web application environment
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PEMS data analysis
• Data quality (QA/QC)
• Process review & optimization
• Data processing, analysis and assessment
Altitude estimation where no spot height measurements are available
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ASSESSMENTS
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Areas of interest
• Data collection, processing and analysis– PEMS Data QA/QC, Eurostat Road-Air-IWW-Rail, COPERT Uncertainty
• Vehicle Emissions Modelling & Projecting– COPERT, TRACCS
• Policy Impact Assessment– Fuel Quality Directive support
• Vehicle Technology Evaluation– EURO 7
– CO2 from vehicle energy systems
• Air Quality (through our partner AERIS Europe)– Urban
– Assessments
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CO2 emissions from the use of vehicle components
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• Calculate CO2 emissions linked to the use of selected products of a Tier 1 OEM supplier over product lifetime
• All important powertrains considered
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• Projections of real-world (total) CO2 from road transport taking into account advanced biofuel production pathways and deployment of ICT/ITS
• Projections based on baseline activity evolution to 2030, agreed in high-level EU policy related studies
Evolution of CO2 emissions from road traffic
☟
5% BEV
☟
40% PHEV
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UTILITIES
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• Estimates emissions from on-road vehicle fleets• Used by 22 out of 28 MS for official submission of road emission inventories• Developed for the European Environment Agency• Free for use
• Calculates traffic emissions at street level using COPERT functions• Can be combined with traffic analysis tools• Visualization of results on GIS maps
• Provides real-time traffic and environmental information for the city of Thessaloniki• Enables smart navigation based on user selected criteria• Available on the web and as an Android application
• Includes historic and projected stock and activity data• Delivers alternative scenarios for energy and emissions• Includes advanced technologies and mobility patterns• Commercially available
• Efficient and flexible tool developed for operational air quality forecast and scenario assessment
• Uses minimal computational resources and widely available input data• Validated on small-scale urban situation
• PEMS data handling & IT infrastructure• Data analysis• Emissions modelling
Utilities
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• COPERT is the flagship of EMISIA’s tools
• Supported by the European Environment Agency
• Estimates all types of pollutants from all road vehicle types
• Hundreds of scientific and policy citations
Academic use
29%
Calculation of
emission factors -
Emissions
22%
Evaluation - Research
20%
Input to Air Quality
2%
Local inventory
4%
National inventory
5%
Other
18%
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What can SIBYL do for you?
• Provide you with state-of-the-art baseline projections, established at an EU level
• Assist you in developing alternative scenarios
• Produce ready-to-use tables and graphs for your report
What can SIBYL offer?
• Coverage of all EU MS individually and EU28 as a whole
• Detailed information on vehicle stocks and activities
• Fully interactive graphs that greatly accelerate your work
• Flexible scenario creation and presentation
• Access to updates and revisions of the baseline and the model capabilities
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Technical Assistance for Developed Analytical Basis for
Formulating Strategies and Actions towards
Low Carbon Development
http://www.lowcarbonturkey.org/
Thank you for your attention!