coping with extreme floods - asian disaster … with extreme floods a unu capacity development...
TRANSCRIPT
Co
pin
g w
ith
Ex
trem
e F
loo
ds
A U
NU
CA
PA
CIT
Y D
EV
EL
OP
ME
NT
PR
OG
RA
M
Sri
kan
tha
Her
ath
Envir
onm
ent
and S
ust
ainab
le D
evel
opm
ent
Unit
ed N
atio
ns
Univ
ersi
ty
Srikantha Herath
Envir
onm
enta
l C
han
ge
Ris
k m
anag
emen
t
�M
a ke
dec
isio
ns
on e
nvir
onm
ent
to g
uid
e
poss
ible
futu
re o
utc
om
es
�A
bil
ity
to
fo
reca
st f
utu
re
�A
bil
ity
to
co
mp
are
risk
s an
d m
ake
dec
isio
ns
Srikantha Herath
Guid
ing p
rinci
ple
s of
capac
ity
dev
elopm
ent
Srikantha Herath
Guid
ing p
rinci
ple
s of
capac
ity
dev
elopm
ent
�T
he
cap
acit
y d
evel
op
men
t p
rog
ram
is
bas
ed o
n t
he
nee
ds
of
the
Asi
a P
acif
ic c
ou
ntr
ies
Srikantha Herath
Guid
ing p
rinci
ple
s of
capac
ity
dev
elopm
ent
�T
he
cap
acit
y d
evel
op
men
t p
rog
ram
is
bas
ed o
n t
he
nee
ds
of
the
Asi
a P
acif
ic c
ou
ntr
ies
Srikantha Herath
Guid
ing p
rinci
ple
s of
capac
ity
dev
elopm
ent
�T
he
cap
acit
y d
evel
op
men
t p
rog
ram
is
bas
ed o
n t
he
nee
ds
of
the
Asi
a P
acif
ic c
ou
ntr
ies
�In
crea
se t
he
nu
mb
er o
f te
chn
ical
ly c
om
pet
ent
per
son
s w
ho
can
gra
sp s
tate
of
env
iro
nm
ent,
d
ow
nsc
ale
glo
bal
in
form
atio
n t
o l
oca
l sc
ale
and
m
ake
rele
van
t fo
reca
sts
Srikantha Herath
Guid
ing p
rinci
ple
s of
capac
ity
dev
elopm
ent
�T
he
cap
acit
y d
evel
op
men
t p
rog
ram
is
bas
ed o
n t
he
nee
ds
of
the
Asi
a P
acif
ic c
ou
ntr
ies
�In
crea
se t
he
nu
mb
er o
f te
chn
ical
ly c
om
pet
ent
per
son
s w
ho
can
gra
sp s
tate
of
env
iro
nm
ent,
d
ow
nsc
ale
glo
bal
in
form
atio
n t
o l
oca
l sc
ale
and
m
ake
rele
van
t fo
reca
sts
Srikantha Herath
Guid
ing p
rinci
ple
s of
capac
ity
dev
elopm
ent
�T
he
cap
acit
y d
evel
op
men
t p
rog
ram
is
bas
ed o
n t
he
nee
ds
of
the
Asi
a P
acif
ic c
ou
ntr
ies
�In
crea
se t
he
nu
mb
er o
f te
chn
ical
ly c
om
pet
ent
per
son
s w
ho
can
gra
sp s
tate
of
env
iro
nm
ent,
d
ow
nsc
ale
glo
bal
in
form
atio
n t
o l
oca
l sc
ale
and
m
ake
rele
van
t fo
reca
sts
Srikantha Herath
Guid
ing p
rinci
ple
s of
capac
ity
dev
elopm
ent
�T
he
cap
acit
y d
evel
op
men
t p
rog
ram
is
bas
ed o
n t
he
nee
ds
of
the
Asi
a P
acif
ic c
ou
ntr
ies
�In
crea
se t
he
nu
mb
er o
f te
chn
ical
ly c
om
pet
ent
per
son
s w
ho
can
gra
sp s
tate
of
env
iro
nm
ent,
d
ow
nsc
ale
glo
bal
in
form
atio
n t
o l
oca
l sc
ale
and
m
ake
rele
van
t fo
reca
sts
�F
acil
itat
e cu
sto
miz
ing
glo
bal
kn
ow
led
ge
to m
eet
loca
l co
nd
itio
ns
and
co
nst
rain
ts.
Srikantha Herath
Tar
get
gro
ups
�R
esea
rcher
s /
Sci
enti
sts
�C
ust
om
izin
g e
xis
tin
g k
no
wle
dg
e to
su
it l
oca
l co
nd
itio
ns
sup
po
rted
by
glo
bal
ex
per
ien
ces
�P
rofe
ssio
nal
/ P
ract
itio
ner
s�
Intr
od
uci
ng
new
met
ho
ds,
to
ols
, st
and
ard
s
�A
dm
inis
trat
ive
/ L
oca
l gover
nm
ent
off
icer
s�
Ov
er v
iew
of
tech
no
log
y a
nd
sci
ence
Srikantha Herath
Extr
eme
Flo
od R
isk T
rain
ing
�M
ot i
vat
ion
� B
ackgro
und:
Reg
ional
pro
gra
m
�E
xpec
tati
ons
Srikantha Herath
Extr
eme
Flo
od –
What
if?
�In
form
al D
iscu
ssio
ns
in 2
002 w
ith H
ydro
Met
eoro
logic
al o
rgan
izat
ions
off
icia
ls
�R
ound t
able
dis
cuss
ion i
n 2
003 a
t th
e W
orl
d
Wat
er F
oru
m
�A
tem
pla
te t
o c
ope
up w
ith ‘
A f
lood t
hat
go
bey
ond t
he
des
ign l
evel
s….’
Srikantha Herath
Init
iati
ve
on C
atas
trophic
Flo
od R
isk
Red
uct
ion
Srikantha Herath
Init
iati
ve
on C
atas
trophic
Flo
od R
isk
Red
uct
ion
at
a R
egio
nal
Work
shop
“E
nsu
ring F
lood S
ecuri
ty f
or
Sust
ain
able
U
rbaniz
ati
on i
n t
he
Asi
a P
aci
fic
Reg
ion”, 2003
Srikantha Herath
Init
iati
ve
on C
atas
trophic
Flo
od R
isk
Red
uct
ion
at
a R
egio
nal
Work
shop
“E
nsu
ring F
lood S
ecuri
ty f
or
Sust
ain
able
U
rbaniz
ati
on i
n t
he
Asi
a P
aci
fic
Reg
ion”, 2003
Ban
gkok R
esolu
tion:
Srikantha Herath
Init
iati
ve
on C
atas
trophic
Flo
od R
isk
Red
uct
ion
at
a R
egio
nal
Work
shop
“E
nsu
ring F
lood S
ecuri
ty f
or
Sust
ain
able
U
rbaniz
ati
on i
n t
he
Asi
a P
aci
fic
Reg
ion”, 2003
Ban
gkok R
esolu
tion:
Srikantha Herath
Init
iati
ve
on C
atas
trophic
Flo
od R
isk
Red
uct
ion
at
a R
egio
nal
Work
shop
“E
nsu
ring F
lood S
ecuri
ty f
or
Sust
ain
able
U
rbaniz
ati
on i
n t
he
Asi
a P
aci
fic
Reg
ion”, 2003
Ban
gkok R
esolu
tion:
Th
e n
eed
for
an
Asi
a P
acif
ic I
nit
iati
ve
on C
atas
trophic
Flo
od R
isk
Red
uct
ion, an
d p
led
ged
su
pp
ort
for
the
mis
sion
an
d g
oals
of
this
in
itia
tive
by r
epre
sen
tati
ves
fro
m:
Srikantha Herath
Init
iati
ve
on C
atas
trophic
Flo
od R
isk
Red
uct
ion
at
a R
egio
nal
Work
shop
“E
nsu
ring F
lood S
ecuri
ty f
or
Sust
ain
able
U
rbaniz
ati
on i
n t
he
Asi
a P
aci
fic
Reg
ion”, 2003
Ban
gkok R
esolu
tion:
Th
e n
eed
for
an
Asi
a P
acif
ic I
nit
iati
ve
on C
atas
trophic
Flo
od R
isk
Red
uct
ion, an
d p
led
ged
su
pp
ort
for
the
mis
sion
an
d g
oals
of
this
in
itia
tive
by r
epre
sen
tati
ves
fro
m:
Srikantha Herath
Init
iati
ve
on C
atas
trophic
Flo
od R
isk
Red
uct
ion
at
a R
egio
nal
Work
shop
“E
nsu
ring F
lood S
ecuri
ty f
or
Sust
ain
able
U
rbaniz
ati
on i
n t
he
Asi
a P
aci
fic
Reg
ion”, 2003
Ban
gkok R
esolu
tion:
Th
e n
eed
for
an
Asi
a P
acif
ic I
nit
iati
ve
on C
atas
trophic
Flo
od R
isk
Red
uct
ion, an
d p
led
ged
su
pp
ort
for
the
mis
sion
an
d g
oals
of
this
in
itia
tive
by r
epre
sen
tati
ves
fro
m:
Ban
gla
des
h, C
amb
od
ia, C
hin
a, F
iji,
In
dia
, In
do
nes
ia,
Lao
PD
R,
Mal
aysi
a, N
epal
, P
akis
tan
, P
hil
ipp
ines
, S
ing
apo
re,
Sri
Lan
ka,
Th
aila
nd
and
Vie
tnam
Srikantha Herath
How
do w
e pre
par
e?
�F
inan
cial
and e
conom
ic r
ecover
y�
Sp
read
ing
or
Sw
app
ing
th
e ri
sk
�In
ves
tmen
t in
mit
igat
ion
an
d p
rep
ared
nes
s �
Lo
ss
esti
mat
ion
�A
s urb
an c
ente
rs g
row
and d
evel
op, th
ere
wil
l al
way
s be
new
ris
ks
�In
crea
sed
flo
od
s, u
nd
erg
rou
nd
sp
ace
flo
od
ing
, et
c.
Srikantha Herath
Pro
gra
m
�P
has
e I
(Han
ds
on
– 3
wee
ks)
�T
rain
ing o
n G
IS�
GIS
syst
em f
reel
y d
istr
ibute
d
�S
etti
ng u
p a
nd a
ppli
cati
on o
f R
ainfa
ll D
ow
nsc
alin
g a
nd
fore
cast
ing s
yst
em (
DR
F)
�S
etti
ng u
p F
lood i
nundat
ion m
odel
ling a
nd A
ppli
cati
on (
FM
S)
�P
has
e II
(H
om
e co
un
try
3 m
on
ths)
�T
ransf
er t
o o
ther
s
�M
odel
appli
cati
on a
nd v
erif
icat
ion w
ith h
isto
rica
l fl
oods
�F
ield
surv
ey f
or
dat
a co
llec
tion
�P
has
e II
I(H
and
s o
n –
3 w
eek
s)�
Ris
k A
sses
smen
t: E
conom
ic l
oss
es a
nd p
eople
at
risk
�M
itig
atio
n m
easu
res
Srikantha Herath
Org
aniz
atio
ns
�O
rga
niz
ed b
y U
NU
�R
esou
rces
fro
m:
UN
ES
CO
-IH
E, M
on
ash
Un
iver
sity
, Au
stra
lia,
Nip
pon
Koei
Co., L
td., A
IT, T
hail
an
d
�P
art
icip
an
ts –
Pro
fess
ion
als
fro
m a
Un
iver
sity
an
d t
he
org
an
iza
tio
n r
esp
on
sib
le f
or
flo
od
co
ntr
ol
- tr
ain
ers
�C
hin
a:
Tsi
ngh
ua U
niv
ersi
ty, B
eiji
ng M
un
icip
ali
ty
�N
epal:
In
stit
ute
of
En
gin
eeri
ng, D
epart
men
t of
Hyd
rolo
gy a
nd
M
eteo
rolo
gy
�P
hil
ipp
ines
: U
niv
ersi
ty o
f P
hil
ipp
ines
, P
AG
AS
A (
Hyd
ro
met
eoro
logic
al A
gen
cy)
�S
ri L
an
ka:
Un
iver
sity
of
Per
ad
eniy
a, Ir
rigati
on
Dep
art
men
t
�V
iet
Nam
: In
stit
ute
of
Hyd
rolo
gy a
nd
Met
eoro
logy,
D
epart
men
t of
Sto
rm C
on
trol
an
d D
yk
e M
an
agem
ent
Var
ious
dat
a se
ts f
rom
NK
-GIA
S
Basin
boundary
Riv
er
lines
DE
MT
hie
ssen p
oly
gons
Srikantha Herath
Rea
ltim
e R
F s
yst
em We
use
the
glo
bal
fore
cast
(G
FS
dat
a se
ts)
Wea
ther
Res
earc
h a
nd
Fore
cast
ing (
WR
F)
Model
of
NC
AR
, U
SA
use
d f
or
dow
nsc
alin
g
Auto
mat
ed s
yst
ems
Use
for
scen
ario
model
ling
DH
M s
up
pli
es:
Flo
od
data
on
each
gri
d (
dep
th, d
ura
tion
, vel
oci
ty)
Flo
od
Da
ma
ge
Est
ima
tio
n i
n e
ach
gri
ds
usi
ng
est
ab
lish
ed m
od
els
for
each
ty
pe
of
da
ma
ge.
Ou
tpu
t: e
stim
ate
d
dis
trib
ute
d f
loo
d d
am
ag
e
Dis
trib
ute
d H
yd
rolo
gic
Mod
elD
am
age
Est
imati
on
Mod
el
Da
ma
ge
Cla
ssif
ica
tio
n
Est
ab
lish
da
ma
ge
esti
ma
tio
n m
od
el f
or
each
typ
e o
f o
bje
ct
Dev
elo
pm
ent
of
fra
gil
ity
(or
sta
ge-
da
ma
ge)
fu
nct
ion
sD
etail
ed l
an
dco
ver
info
rmati
on
Qu
esti
on
nair
e su
rvey
& h
isto
rica
l d
ata
Inundat
ion M
odel
ing:
Dam
age
Ass
essm
ent
and Srikantha Herath
Outc
om
es
�P
has
e I
– T
rain
ing
of
trai
ner
s o
n G
IS,
Rai
nfa
ll
fore
cast
ing
an
d F
loo
d m
od
elin
g�
A t
rain
ing t
ext
book w
ith e
xam
ple
s an
d s
tep-b
y-s
tep
man
ual
s to
set
up a
nd r
un m
odel
s
�P
has
e II
– D
evel
op
ex
trem
e fl
oo
d s
cen
ario
s fo
r ea
ch c
ou
ntr
y.
�P
has
e II
I –
A b
oo
k o
n c
ase
stu
die
s an
d
reco
mm
end
atio
ns
�A
Co
mm
un
ity
of
rese
arch
ers
and
pra
ctit
ion
ers
wo
rkin
g o
n E
xtr
eme
Flo
od
s
Srikantha Herath
�F
or
exam
ple
, on A
ug 1
st, 2007, th
e pre
cipit
atio
n w
as
about
80m
m/h
at A
nhua
bri
dge
. Aft
er f
ive
day
s, t
he
anoth
er r
ainfa
ll o
f 82 m
m/h
occ
ure
d a
t th
e sa
me
pla
ce. R
ainfa
ll r
esult
ed i
n i
nundat
ion o
f 3m
on t
he
road
.
Ch
ina:
Bei
jin
gSrikantha Herath
Ch
ina
�O
utp
ut:
Pre
cip
itat
ion
Win
d
Tem
per
atu
re
�L
oca
tio
n: n
ort
h o
f B
eij
ing
�T
he m
ain
bra
nch
of
Wen
yu
he b
asi
n
�R
iver
len
gth
: 23.7
km
�C
atc
hm
en
t A
rea: 210 k
m2
�B
eij
ing
Oly
mp
ic p
ark
is
loca
ted
in
th
is b
asi
n
�D
esi
gn
ed
sta
nd
ard
: 20-y
ears
Srikantha Herath
Sim
ula
tion r
esult
s: S
urf
ace
Inundat
ion
Srikantha Herath
Obse
rvat
ions
�M
any p
arti
cipan
ts w
ere
inte
rest
ed i
n
oper
atio
nal
fore
cast
ing.
�P
arin
g o
f ed
uca
tional
and r
esponsi
ble
agen
cy
par
tici
pan
ts p
roved
to b
e ver
y e
ffec
tive
�T
he
module
can
be
div
ided
in t
o 3
sub
module
s an
d d
eliv
ered
acc
ord
ing t
o t
he
nee
ds
of
each
countr
y.
Srikantha Herath
Outc
om
es
�P
has
e I
– r
evis
e an
d i
mpro
ve
the
text
book
wit
h t
he
appli
cati
ons
soft
war
e
�P
has
e II
– D
evel
op l
oss
funct
ions
dam
age
esti
mat
ion m
ethodolo
gy:
Syst
em o
n W
WW
�P
has
e II
I – E
conom
ic l
oss
est
imat
es. A
book
on c
ase
studie
s an
d r
ecom
men
dat
ions
�A
Com
munit
y o
f re
sear
cher
s an
d
pra
ctit
ioner
s w
ork
ing o
n E
xtr
eme
Flo
ods
Srikantha Herath
Futu
re
�D
evel
op
to
ols
to
set
up
cit
y s
pec
ific
‘E
nv
iro
nm
enta
l ch
ang
e as
sess
men
t in
form
atio
n f
ram
ewo
rk’
�C
lim
ate
chan
ge
resp
onse
=>
Est
imat
ing w
eath
er�
Dow
nsc
alin
g I
PC
C f
ore
cast
s fo
r lo
cal
appli
cati
ons
�O
per
atio
nal
use
in f
lood f
ore
cast
ing -
unce
rtai
nty
est
imat
es
�Im
pac
t of
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aniz
atio
n o
n e
nvir
onm
ent
�F
loods
�H
eat
�S
trea
m f
low
-->
wat
er q
ual
ity
�D
emonst
rati
on a
ppli
cati
ons
and t
ools
Th
ank
yo
u
for
yo
ur
atte
nti
on
Srikantha Herath
Flo
od I
nundat
ion
(Sim
ula
ted/M
easu
red)
Pro
per
ty D
istr
ibuti
on
Eco
nom
ic d
amag
e D
istr
ibuti
onRes
iden
tial
buil
din
g
conte
nt
Bea
ns
Dep
th
Damage % Damage %D
epth T
ime
Su
rvey
ed
Est
ima
ted
by
mo
del
Srikantha Herath
Flo
od I
nundat
ion
(Sim
ula
ted/M
easu
red)
Pro
per
ty D
istr
ibuti
on
Eco
nom
ic d
amag
e D
istr
ibuti
onRes
iden
tial
buil
din
g
conte
nt
Bea
ns
Dep
th
Damage % Damage %
Dep
th Tim
e
0
2,0
00
4,0
00
6,0
00
8,0
00
10
,00
0
Res. Structure
Res. Content
Non-res. Property
Non-res. Stock
Su
rvey
ed
Est
ima
ted
by
mo
del
Srikantha Herath
Lo
ss F
un
ctio
ns
for
Str
uct
ura
l D
am
ag
e:
Loss F
unction for
Str
uctu
ral D
am
age
(Resid
ential B
uild
ing, H
anoi)
Loss F
unction for
Str
uctu
ral D
am
age
(Industr
ial B
uild
ing, H
anoi)
R 2
va
lue
0.2
9
Sca
tte
rplo
t
De
pe
nd
en
t V
aria
ble
: S
tru
ctu
ral d
am
ag
e (
%)
Re
gre
ssio
n S
tan
da
rdiz
ed
Pre
dic
ted
Va
lue
65
43
21
0-1
-2-3
Structural damage (%)
100
80
60
40
20 0
-20
Rsq =
0.2
300
Sca
tte
rplo
t
De
pe
nd
en
t V
aria
ble
: S
tru
ctu
ral d
am
ag
e (
%)
Re
gre
ssio
n S
tan
da
rdiz
ed
Pre
dic
ted
Va
lue
43
21
0-1
-2
Structural damage (%)
14
12
10 8 6 4 2 0 -2
Rsq =
0.6
341