CoPS has built SinoTERM: a Chinese multi-regional model based on TERM

To investigate issues such as:• regional development planning

• food security

• trade policy

• national/provincial financial relations

• energy/greenhouse policy

• internal migration

• cost/benefit analysis of transport infrastructure

China is the countrymost suited to TERM

• Big: 30+ provinces

• Regional Issues

• Environmental problems

• Important inland and hinterland regions

• A tradition of planning

• Fairly good technical and data resources

Advantages of TERM framework for modelling China

• The only way to model 30+ regions “bottom-up”

• A data strategy which preserves commodity detail and delivers results in finite time.

• Simulation-specific commodity aggregation to suit particular issues

• Allows detailed representation of transport costs– Better roads in Anhui increase trade between Henan

and Zhejiang.

Xinjiang

Tibet

Mongolia

Qinghai

Sichuan

Heilongjiang

Gansu

Yunan

Guangxi

Hunan

Shaanxi

Jil in

Hubei

Hebei

Guangdong

Guizhou

Jiangxi

Henan

Shanxi

Shandong

Liaoning

Anhui

Fujian

Zhejiang

Jiangsu

NingxiaHui

Hainan

Beijing

Tianjin

Shanghai

Chongqing

.

535.55 (minimum)599.05634.67 (median)775.551324.82 (maximum)

Income of Urban Households by Region, 2004

30+ is a large number of regions for a CGE model

Income from port activity servicing

other regions

Regional Income

differences

Transport costs

Regional differences in industrial

structure

Climate change

Features of SinoTERM

• Database: size 31 provinces x 137 sectors

• Based on 2002 Input-Output table, with agriculture disaggregated by CoPS

• And using a variety of regional data

• For simulations, usually aggregated to approx 31 provinces x 45 sectors

More Features of SinoTERM

• 2 household types: Rural and Urban

• Future Improvements: additional equations and data to model:– more detail in energy and agriculture sectors– labour migration– direct taxation– transfers between provincial and central government

CoPS seeks Chinese partners:

• able to participate in model-building process, by gathering data and suggesting best modification of TERM equations to Chinese priorities.

• able to locate funds either from Chinese or foreign sources.

CoPS has no independent funding to pursue this project.