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IMPROVING LOGISTICS REALISM INCOMMAND POST EXERCISES INVOLVING THE

KC-135A/E/R AIRCRAFT USING A HISTORICALAIRCRAFT MAINTENANCE DATABASE MODEL

THESIS

Lyndon S. AndersonCaptain, USAF

AFIT/GLM/LSM/90S-2

Approved ;c:r public release; distribution unlimited

The opinions and conclusions in this paper are those of theauthor and are not intended to represent the officialposition of the DOD, USAF, or any other government agency.

Accecion For I

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U, a .rou.ced UJUStaicabon

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AFIT/GLM/LSM/90S-2

IMPROVING LOGISTICS REALISM IN COMMAND POST EXERCISES INVOLVING

THE KC-135A/E/R AIRCRAFT USING A HISTORICAL AIRCRAFT

MAINTENANCE DATABASE MODEL

THESIS

Presented to the Faculty of the School of Systems and Logistics

of the Air Force Institute of Technology

Air University

In Partial Fulfillment of the

Requirements for the Degree of

Master of Science in Logistics Management

Lyndon S. Anderson, B.S.

Captain, USAF

September 1990

Approved for public release; distribution unlimited

Acknowledgements

Many dedicated personnel worked hard to help ensure the

successful accomplishment of this thesis effort. First and

foremost, I am deeply indebted to my thesis advisor, Lt Col

Phillip Miller, for his expert guidance, steadfast support,

and rapid straight-forward feedback. To Captain Russell S.

Hall, I would like to express my gratitude and admiration.

His fortitude early in the project helped get this research

effort off on the right track. His methodical and insight-

ful research is deserving of the highest praise.

I would also like to express my sincere appreciation to

Col Linville and his staff at HQ SAC/LGL whose sponsorship

and support made this thesis effort possible. The same

appreciation is expressed to Maj Lassen and his staff at the

4950th OMS for their research support; to Maj Riggins and Lt

(Navy) McNeeley at AFIT/LSG for their computer programming

expertise; to CMSgt Koslic at the llth Strategic Group, RAF

Fairford, UK for gathering the source data used for this

thesis effort; to MSgt Knopes at HQ SAC/LGSMO for providing

the War Readiness Spares Kit listings; and to all the volun-

teers who assisted me during the mock exercise.

Finally, and most importantly, a special thanks goes to

my loving wife Trudy, and my beautiful daughters Nicole and

Megan for their understanding, encouragement, love and

support. To them I dedicate this thesis.

Lyndon S. Anderson

ii

Table of Contents

Page

Acknowledgements.....................ii

List of Figures......................vi

List of Tables......................vii

Abstract........................viii

I. Introduction.....................1-1

Background...................1-1General Issue..................1-4Problem Statement.................1-15Research Objective...............1-5Investigative Questions.............1-5Scope......................1-6Assumptions...................1-6Limitations...................1-6Key Terms and Definitions............1-7Summary....................1-10

II. Literature Review..................2-1

General.....................2-1Military Exercises................2-2Logistics....................2-4Realism.....................2-6Command Post Exercises.............2-8Summary....................2-13

III. Methodology....................3-1

Overview....................3-1Data Collection.................3-2KC-135A/E/R Database Model Development . 3-3Information Guide Development..........3-4Developing and Conducting the Evaluation 3-5Test KC-135A/E/R Database Model.........3-7Analysis of Findings and Results ..... 3-8Summary.....................3-9

IV. Results, Findings, and Analysis...........4-1

Overview....................4-1Data Collection.................4-2KC-135A/E/R Database Model Development . 4-4

iii

Full Version ....... ............. 4-4Practice Database .. .......... 4-9

Information Guide .... ............. 4-10Evaluation Survey Development ........ .. 4-12Testing the KC-135A/E/R Database Model 4-14

Composition of the Mock Exercise 4-16Evaluation Survey 1, Results ..... 4-18Analysis of Findings and Results . . . 4-31

Non-statistical Analysis . . .. 4-31Statistical Analysis ...... 4-40

Identifying Confounds . . 4-40

Analyzing Modified Data 4-51

Evaluation Survey 2 Data Analysis 4-54

Summary .............. ............. 4-55

V. Conclusions and Recommendations .. ......... .. 5-i

Overview ...... ................... 5-1Primary Findings .... ............. 5-2Conclusions ......... ................ 5-4Recommendations ........ .............. 5-5

Handling Research Documents ..... 5-5

Future Research ... ........... 5-5

Summary .......... .................. 5-7

Appendix A: KC-135A/E/R Aircraft MaintenanceLogistics Database .. ......... A-i

Appendix B: Information Guide .. .......... B-i

Appendix C: Practice Database .. .......... C-i

Appendix D: CPX MX Worksheets I and 2 ...... D-i

Appendix E: Evaluation Surveys .. ......... E-i

Appendix F: Training Session Slides . ....... F-I

iv

Appendix G: Mock Exercise Team Mission Tasking

Orders....................G-1

Bibliography.......................BIB-i

Vita..........................VIT-1

tv

List of Figures

Figure Page

1. KC-135A/E/R Database Model Source Data Input .. 3-3

2. Graphical Comparison of Parts/Discrepancies

From ETTF Source Data...............4-39

3. Box and Whisker Plot Evaluation Survey 1 Data .. 4-43

4. Box and Whisker Plot of Data Set WithQuestion Six Removed...............4-48

B-i. Phase Inspection In a Nutshell..........B-7

B-2. HPO Inspection In a Nutshell ............. B-9

B-3. Timeline Documentation and Special Symbols .. . . B-13

B-4. Worksheet Plotting In a Nutshell .......... B-18

D-i. CPX MX Worksheet 1..................D-1

D-2. CPX MX Worksheet 2..................D-2

F-i. KCi35A/E/R Aircraft Maintenance DatabasePurpose.......................F-i

F-2. Phase Inspection Requirements ........... F-2

F-3. HPO Inspection Requirements.............F-3

F-4. Worksheet Plotting Requirements .......... F-4

F-5. Worksheet Plotting Requirements (Continued) ... F-5

F-6. Key To Timeline Documentation..........F-6

F-7. Background.....................F-7

F-B. Objectives.....................F-8

F-9. Exercise Support Material..............F-9

vi

List of Tables

Table Page

1. Research Methodology ..... .............. 3-1

2. Mock Exercise Team Compositionand Assignments ...... ................ 4-17

3. Evaluation Survey 1 Raw Data Matrix . ...... 4-41

4. Descriptive Statistics EvaluationSurvey 1 Data ...... ................. 4-42

5. Friedman Test Determination of Outliers . . . . 4-44

6. Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test Questions . ...... 4-47

7. Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test Respondents ..... .. 4-50

8. Descriptive Statistics Modified EvaluationSurvey 1 Data ...... ................. 4-52

0. Analysis of Modified Data Using

Friedman's Test ...... ......... ...... 4-54

B-i. Contingency Phase Inspection Times ........ .. B-8

B-2. Aircraft Phase and HPO Times at STARTEX . . . . B-14

vii

AFIT/GLM/LSM/90S-2

Abstract

This si-idy;, under the sponsorship of HQ SAC/LGL, inves-

tigated a method to improve realism in Command Post Exer-

cises (CPX) involving the KC-135A/E/R aircraft by developing

a historical database model. The model is based on the pre-

mise that realistic data collected from actual war-like

missions can be placed in a database for use by response

cell members to provide simulated, yet realistic, logistical

requirements during CPXs. European Tanker Task Force flying

mission data was used as source data for the development of

the model. Associated documentation was also developed to

support the model. A mock exercise simulating a CPX was

used to test the model and its associated documentation.

Analysis of the test results lead the researcher to conclude

that the model provides response cell members with a useful

tool to obtain realistic logistical information they need to

carry out their duties effectively. Recommendations in-

clude using the model and documentation as required by HQ

SAC/LGL, and conducting further research to test the hypo-

thesis that historical database models im r.ove realism at

the response cell level durin_ CPXs.

vii

viii

IMPROVING LOGISTICS REALISMIN COMMAND POST EXERCISES INVOLVING THE KC-135A/E/R AIRCRAFT

USING A HIc-'RICAL AIRCRAFT MAINTENANCE DATABASE MODEL

I. Introduction

Background

The national defense of the United States depends on

the ability of its military to successfully accomplish

national defense objectives. Of critical importance to the

military is how it prepares to carry out this tasking.

During peacetime, the military is always faced with the

dilemma of maintaining force readiness. A primary method

for maintaining force readiness is through the use of mili-

tary exercises.

Military exercises offer a tremendous opportunity to

prepare military forces for war. They have become one of

the most effective ways of educating military forces on the

experiences and rigors of war short of actual combat. More

effective still, are military exercises that successfully

create the illusion of reality. Realistic exercises can be

an extremely powerful influence, especially on those who

have limited operational experience (Perl., 1985:77). With

each passing year, fewer people with actual combat

i-i

experience remain in military service (Furlong, 1984:4). Of

critical importance, then, is generating as much reality as

possible within military exercises to get as much educa-

tional value as possible for an ever increasing in-

experienced force. Inexperience within the military can

have serious consequences in time of war. Failure to train

realistically can lead decision makers to draw conclusions

about war that could be disastrous (McCarty, 1988:2).

Improved exercise realism can be accomplished through

the use of logistic considerations. Frequently, as seen

throughout history, logistic considerations have been the

deciding factor between victory and defeat., The classic and

universal military problem of ignoring logistics (Russo,

1987:7) must be overcome. To put logistics in proper con-

text, Lt Col McCarty relates it to strategy and tactics by

stating "what a commander wants to do (strategy) through

the use of military forces (tactics) is almost totally

dependent on what there is to do it with (logistics)

(McCarty, 1988:19).'

Logistic consideratic,-q must assume equal prominence

with strategy. It has bee .ritten that there can be no

strategy without logistics. Jerome Peppers supports this by

identifying two important reasons. First, all nations are

constrained by limited resources, and as such, require a

logistics system to effectively use what resources are

1-2

avai.lable. Second, a logistic system is made up of every-

thing other than operational employment, and must be treated

as such. Failure to do so can lead to a "dangerously thin

and weak philosophical foundation (Peppers, 1986:14)."

With these points in mind, military planners must

reconsider the objectives of military exercises with a

central issue revolving around how the element of realism

can best be achieved (Hall, 1989:Ch 1, 2).

A number of logistical models have been developed to

provide improved realism in military exercises. The most

widely used model is mathematically based and uses random

number generators to determine logistic requirements. For

example, with command post exercises (CPX) , the logistic

requirements often controlled by a random number generrted

model include aircraft landing status, aircraft avail-

ability, and tim6 needed to repair the aircraft (Hall,

1989:Ch 2, 9).

A second type of logistic model, an aircraft main-

tenance database, can be used to improve realism in military

exercises. This model is based on the premise that histori-

cal data collected from actual aircraft deployments can be

used as both input and output for the model. With this

approach, the input of actual aircraft maintenance data is

captured and reused as output during an exercise. The

result thereby dramatically improves the realism of the

1-3

logistic requirements of '%he exercise. The concept has an

added advantage of simplifying what otherwise would be a

difficult project to model using mathematical techniques

(Hall, 1989:Ch 1, 7-8). As with the random number generator

model, logistic requirements most often controlled by the

aircraft maintenance database model during CPXs include

aircraft landing status, aircraft availability, and time

needei to repair the aircraft. Aircraft availability is a

critical limiting factor in force employment. Consequently,

"a valid, mature and consistently reliable means is needed

to govern aircraft availability and other logistic require-

ments during command post exercises where practically all

forces are simulated (Hall, 1989:Ch 1, 3)."

General Issue

The Directorate of Contingency Logistics (LGL) at

Strategic Air Command (SAC) Headquarters wants to expand the

use of an aircraft maintenance database model to improve

logistics realism during European Command Post Exercises.

The B-52G aircraft maintenance database model has improved

management of aircraft availability, and has improved the

establishment of aircraft logistical requii-?ments at the

response cell level during CPXs.

1-4

Problem Statement

Logistics realism needs to be improved during command

post exercises involving [C-135A/E/R aircraft.

Research Objective

The objective of this research effcrt is to develop an

aircraft maintenance database model for the KC-135A/E/R

aircraft. The model will be an extension of the B-52G

aircraft maintenance database concept (See Hall, 1989:Ch 1,

4), and will be used by Strategic Air Command during command

post exercises. The researcher shall refer to the model as

the KC-135A/E/R database model.

Investigative Questions

The researcher will use the following investigative

questions to guide this research, and test whether the

concepts and design of the KC-135A/E/R database model can

improve logistics realism over current methods.

1. Can data from KC-135A/E/R aircraft flyingEuropean Tanker Task Force missions moreaccurately depict aircraft maintenance re-quirements than routine peacetime flying data?

2. Does statistical analysis support or rejectthe null hypothesis that there is no improveddifference in logistics realism between theKC-135A/E/R database model and mathematicalmodels currently in use?

3. Can the KC-135A/E/R database model be used todetermine aircraft availability based onlooistical support levels?

1-5

4. Can realistic demands for aircraft spare partsbe determined effectively using the KC-135-A/E/R database model?

5. Can the KC-135A/E/R database model be designedin a manner for use in compressed exerciseschedules?

6. What limitations does the KC-135A/E/R databasemodel pose on response cell personnel, andwhat effect do these limitations have on theobjectives of the command post exercise?(Hall, 1989:Ch 1, 8-9)

Scope

This thesis effort will provide a validated aircraft

maintenance logistics database for Strategic Air Command's

KC-135A/E/R tanker aircraft only. The basic concept, how-

ever, can be expanded to include other weapon systems simu-

lated during CPXs (Hall, 1989:Ch 1, 9).

Assumptions

The KC-135A/E/R database model is developed based on

the assumption that the ETTF source data represents the best

available data that depicts expected wartime mission re-

quirements.

Limitations

The KC-135A/E/R database model is limited in its use by

factors that make up the source data. Factors such as

mission duration, repair turn around time, integrated combat

turn procedures, and surge conditions affect the development

of the KC-135A/E/R database model. Use of the model for

1-6

applications with markedly different preconditions may

induce errors that may cause less realistic outcome from the

model (Hall, 1989:Ch 1, 10). For example, during integrated

combat turns, the aircraft repair time (turn around time) is

generally much shorter because maintenance and refueling

procedures, normally performed separately, can be performed

concurrently.

Key Terms and Definitions

Aircraft Maintenance Database. A historical collection

of related maintenance and supply data arranged as a tabular

handbook that provides detailed aircraft logistical infor-

mation to response cell personnel for use during command

post exercises.

Aircraft Maintenance Landing Code. 'Codes assigned to

support inflight discrepancies during the provisioning

process to indicate to maintenance and supply personnel the

maintenance levels authorized to remove and replace, repair,

overhaul, assemble, inspect and test, and to condemn items

(McCann, 1981:409)."

Command Post Exercise. 'A military exercise in which

the existence and movement of combat forces is simulated

(Hall, 1989:Ch 1, 11).'

1-7

Database. "A collection of detailed information on the

actual procedures used in planning and executing an activity

(McCann, 1981:194).*

European Tanker Task Force. A task force comprised of

tanker aircraft temporarily formed to support European

flying missions.

Field Training Exercise. *An exercise conducted in the

field under simulated war conditions in which troops and

armament of one side are actually present, while those of

the other side may be imaginary or an outline (DoD, 1987:143)."

Job Control Number. A seven digit number assigned to a

specific inflight discrepancy for use by maintenance person-

nel.

Maintainability. 'A characteristic of design and

installation expressed as the probability that an item will

be restored to a specific condition within a given period of

time when the maintenance is performed using prescribed

procedures and resourcs (McCann, 1981:406).'

Military Exercise. 'Any practice operation for the

purpose of increasing proficiency of personnel in the per-

formance of their tasks. In an exercise, simulated enemy

action is used as a training device for the friendly forces,

and may be wholly or partly imaginary. Unlike a maneuver,

an exercise is not intended to test proficiency, but is used

to develop it (Heflin, 1956:193)."

1-8

National Stock Number. 'A two part 13 digit stock

number assigned to each item of supply repetitively used,

purchased, stocked, or distributed within the federal

government (McCann, 1981:466)."

Nomenclature. "A set or system of official names or

titles given to items of material and equipment

(McCann, 1981:471).'

Response Cell. 'A small group of people deployed to a

forward operating location during command post exercises to

complete the communications loop to various head quarters

and mulate the existence, capabilities, and requirements

of c mbat forces (Hall, 1989:Ch 1, 12)."

STARTEX. "Start date'and time of military exercise

(Hall, 1989:Ch 1, 12).'

Task Force. 'A temporary grouping of units under one

commander formed for the purpose of carrying out a specific

operation or mission (Quick, 1973:473).'

War Game. 'A simulation, by what ever means, of a

military operation involving two or more opposing forces and

using rules, data and procedures designed to depict actual

or assumed real life situations (Quick, 1973:496).'

War Readiness Spares Kit (WRSK). *An air transportable

package of spares and repair parts required to sustain

planned wartime or contingency operations of a weapon system

for a specified period of time pending resupply (McCann,

1981:738).'

1-9

Work Unit Code (WUC). 'An alpha-numeric code made up

normally of two alpha characters which identify a specific

subsystem of an aircraft or other major equipment and three

numbers which identify a specific component within a sub-

system (Hall, 1989:Ch 1, 13)."

Summary

This chapter provided an introductory explanation of

the need for increased logistics realism in military exer-

cises. Additionally, the specific research objective, key

investigative questions, research scope and limitations were

all discussed and will be used to direct the research ef-

fort. Chapter II will provide a review of the applicable

literature.

1-10

II. Literature Review

General

Preparation for war through peacetime training, as Karl

Von Clausewitz aptly explains in his book, On War, is a time

honored concept we in the Department of Defense must con-

tinue to exploit to the fullest (Clausewitz, 1950:332). The

ancient philosopher Horace once said, *a wise man in times

of peace prepares for war (Heinl, 1967:247.' Military

exercises provide the opportunity to test and improve the

capabilities of our forces short of actual combat (War Games

1984:1). A key element to the success or failure of any

military exercise is the element of logistics. "Logistics

provides the means and arrangements that bring strategy and

tactics together to provide combat power (Heinl, 1967:175)."

Good planning includes logistics and should go a step fur-

ther and include the element of realism. Realism by defini-

tion integrates logistics, strategy, and tactics to provide

a scenario that reasonably replicates war. Realism prepares

commanders for success in combat (Hall, 1989:Ch 1, 5).

Command post exercises (CPX) attempt to provide logis-

tics realism by using different modeling approaches. These

exercises simulate the existence and movement of combat

forces, and heavily task communications and coordination of

the various elements of the exercise (Perry, 1987:9; Hall

and Miller, 1990:33). The [Air Force] should strive to

2-1

achieve as much logistics realism av possible in CPXs to

develop the wartime skills of our senior leadership and

their staffs by teaching them how to respond to realistic

wartime scenarios (Hoover, 1984:27). This literature review

examines the components: military exercise, logistics,

realism, and command post exercise to better explain their

relationships.

Military Exercises

Military exercises have long been recognized as an

important element in any effective military organization.

Field Marshal Erwin Rommel, a German battlefield General of

World War II, once said: 'the best form of 'welfare' for

the troops is first-class training (Heinl, 1967:323).*

Military exercises provide that training and give us an

opportunity to learn new procedures, learn from mistakes,

and hone warfighting skills. The practice we gain from

military exercises will eventually lead to a smooth, more

effective combat force.

Though military exercise should be used as tools to

improve war fighting capability, they are often misused and

fail to provide objectivity; rather, they may reflect a

biased point of view or promote a position favored by the

initiators of the exercise. Our system of validating exer-

cises tends to favor those exercises we win ,hile,,4 labelIng

those exercises we lose as 'unfair" or "unrealistic (Fur-

2-2

'Li

long, 1984:6-7).' Lt Cmdr John Melos (a pseudonym of an

active duty Naval Officer), states that "Naval exercises

frequently ignore inconvenient threats and disregard friend-

ly force losses (Melos, 1988:76)." He goes on to say that

commanders believe 'exercises must be a success where U.S.

forces win (Melos, 1988:76)." This approach can result in

planning that ignores potential threats in a real-world

situation. The general attitude prevailing in military

exercises is that the enemy is allowed to play, as long as

they don't adversely effect the desired outcome of the

exercise (Melos, 1988:77). Officers in charge of an exer-

cise will often attempt to create conditions that favor

success because they don't want it to appear that units

under their command 'failed' during an exercise (Melos,

1988:76). Our commanders must understand that we often

learn more by losing in a military exercise than in winning

(Furlong, 1984:7).

Throughout this literature review many articles voiced

criticism of military exercises with little emphasis on ways

to improve. Lt Col Hoover, however, in his article, 'Logis-

tics Realism in Exercises', proposes several basic improve-

ments for military exercises:

2-3

1. Expand senior management awareness of thecriticality of logistic realism in exerciseactivity.

2. Establish an active exercise management organ-ization at HQ USAF level to focus on logisticsaspects.

3. Eliminate current exercise magic and successassured planning.

4. Have fewer exercises of better quality.(Hoover, 1984:29)

Another method of improving the performance of military

exercises includes well thought-out logistical plans.

Logistics

Commanders of a military exercise must be fully aware

of how logistics can affect the progress and outcome of the

exercise (Eccles, 1982:23).

The need for commanders to understand the inter-

relationship between logistics, strategy, and tactics is

essential to success in war. The primary objective of

logistics is to sustain our combat forces (Eccles, 1959:35).

Failure to consider logistic requirements can lead to a

misunderstanding of what levels the logistics system can or

cannot support (Hall, 1989:Ch 5, 1). As Rear Admiral (ret)

Henry E. Eccles states in his book, Logistics in the Nation-

al Defense, 'Strategy and tactics provide the scheme for the

conduct of military operations; logistics provides the means

therefor (Eccles, 1959:19)." It is important, then, to

2-4

realize that no strategic decision can be correct unless

adequate consideration has been given to logistics (Peppers,

1986:14).

There is often a communications disconnect between

logisticians and operators in understanding the principles

of logistics and how they relate to the bigger picture of

operational strategy and tactics. Col Gene S. Bartlow, in

his article "The Operator-Logistician Disconnect,' states

that operators and logisticians must understand each other's

world (Bartlow, 1988:23). He explains that operators often

don't understand the role logistics plays in warfare, and

logisticians don't understand the concepts of operation

(Bartlow, 1988:23). Because of this disconnect, well

planned exercises from an operations point of view will

often overlook logistical requirements (Ogan, 1983:21).

As commanders gain an understanding of how logistics

plays in warfare, they can factor logistics realism into

plans and concepts. Together, logistical requirements and

operational concepts can then be periodically exercised to

ensure operational requirements are met (Bartlow, 1988:23;

Gorby, 1980:25).

2-5

Realism

Karl Von Clausewitz believed logistics realism must be

present in military exercises so officers can receive train-

ing in the "mechanical aspects of war (Furlong, 1984:5)."

Realism then, is the application of truthful planning fac-

tors for the situation described in the exercise scenario

(Hoover, 1984:27). Without logistics realism in military

exercises, officers become dubious in the presence of dan-

ger, death, and live ammunition (Heinl, 1967:57).

Logistics realism is imperative to any successful

military exercise. If an exercise does not provide realism,

the benefit of practice in real world application is lost

(Hoover, 1984:27). Exercise realism is a fundamental in-

gredient to gaining and maintaining the highest degree of

military proficiency (Hoover, 1984:27). When exercise

realism is coupled with logistics realism, commanders can

understand the types of material problems they may face.

Improved exercise and logistic realism will help commanders

prepare for the process of directing units and fighting in a

warbime environment (Furlong, 1984:5).

Lt Gen Raymond B. Furlong believes realistic military

exercises should identify and develop those officers who

have the character and intellect needed for success in

w, arf11are MO~ Ar4U49 hOepansta

exercises must reproduce "danger, exertion, uncertainty, and

2-6

chance,* along with resource limitations and resource losses

(Furlong, 1984:5). Lt Cmdr Melos supports this point as

well. He adds that realistic elements force the commanders

to experience the handling of forces that have taken losses,

instead of commanding forces that remain intact (Melos,

1988:77). They learn to find ut what really works and what

does not (Melos, 1988:77). Though realism is essential to

the development of sound leadership, it is constrained by

the element of time.

Time plays an important role with respect to realism.

Usually there is not enough time allowed in an exercise to

achieve the levels of realism needed to meet the objectives

of the exercise (Hagel, 1989:Ch 1, 4). However, with im-

proved planning, logistics realism can be incorporated in

exercises while staying within the time constraints of the

exercise and still provide a high degree of realism (Hoover,

1984:29). More important, though, are the effects simula-

tions have on realism in military exercises.

Simulations (or artificialities), if used unwisely,

fail to provide a realistic picture of events to the com-

manders (HQ MSG 102025Z, 1988:2-3). The simulations are

often so deeply entrenched within the exercise that com-

manders are not confronted with realistic logistical issues

that may dramatically affect operational decisions during

actual war (Eccles, 1959:300). Fortunately, exercise real-

2-7

ism is becoming an increasingly important concern for our

senior leadership. The Joint Chiefs of Staff have issued a

mandate to all Services requiring they develop improved

procedures to eliminate needless exercise artificialities

and improve realism (Hall and Miller, 1990:33).

Wise use of simulations, though, allow an exercise to

challenge the commander's war fighting capability without

requiring his wartime resources to be in place. This is

often the case with command post exercises.

Command Post Exercises

Command post exercises are designed to test wartime

procedures while simulating the existence and movement of

combat forces. As Maj Gregg T. Perry ex-plains.in his ar-

ticle "Limitations of JCS Exercises,*:

CPXs tend to be manpower intensive both inplanning and in execution. Some unique limita-tions of CPXs include scenario script dependency,where the exercise is tightly controlled by a setsequence of events. Heavily scripted CPXs occurbecause planners must create situations that drivethe players to exercise the procedures which willaccomplish specific objectives. CPXs are alsolimited by level of play constraints. By design,these exercises test the planning and command-control procedures to include our highest levelsof government. Often, this means the level of playwill include the National Command Authorities (thePresident and Secretary of Defense), the JointChiefs of Staff, and/or the Unified commanders.Exercise play at this level of government takes alot of time and often requires high level de-cisions which affect the play of lower level par-ticipants. Additionally, real world commitmentsmay keep the same high level players from part-

2-8

icipating in the exercises, further degrading

realism. (Perry, 1987:8-9)

The direction a CPX can take in a military exercise can

be broken down into two schools of thought. Capt Russ Hall

and Lt Col Phillip Miller report that one school maintains

CPXs should be 'procedural-only" exercises; meaning, only

limited and highly controlled elements of realism are al-

lowed as part of the exercise. The reported benefit of this

method is the control exercise planners maintain in deter-

mining exercise outcome, and in maintaining a degree of

latitude in determining what activities will be exercised.

The second school of thought maintains that CPXs should

embody as much realism as possible without exceeding the

limitations and objectives of the exercise. Hall and Miller

note both groups do agree that logistics realism must be

improved in CPXs. (Hall and Miller, 1990:33)

The purposes of a CPX, to include exercise realism,

often vary. Generally though, a CPX should provide a train-

ing ground that incorporates the disciplines of strategy,

tactics, and logistics together into an integrated whole

(Hall, 1989:Ch 1, 6). There is often a tradeoff between

]rijtij ~realism, and achieving the goals of the exercise.

Realism is often lost and the purpose is undermined because

the wrong players are used, or over-simplified logistic

2-9

inputs are used, or we fail to follow through on logistical

limiting factors (Hagel, 1989:Ch 1, 5;Ch 6, 7-8).

These limitations can be overcome. Maj Gregg T. Perry

also states that "CPX limitations can be overcome by effec-

tive, realistic scenario planning, and staff involvement at

all levels (Perry, 1987:9). Another article on the subject,

by Maj James D. Gorby says " real world data should be

used (when security permits) to reflect actual logistics

capabilities and shortfalls (Gorby, 1980:24-30)." Several

logistics officers at Air Command and Staff College in 1979

said it was normal during exercises to *'assume the equip-

ment is available and ready.' Consequently, the only thing

learned during the exercises was how to fill out reports and

use the message center (Gorby, 1980:25).' Though this

example is somewhat dated, these same types of assumptions

continue to exist in many of our military exercises today.

Maj Steven J. Hagel suggests in his Thesis, Realism in Exer-

cises, that we can improve realism by:

1. Having more involvement by our senior levelleadership.

2. Using the actual players during the exerciseinstead of substitutes.

3. Extending the time of the exercise.

4. Conducting more intensive logistic exercises.(Hagel, 1989:Ch 6, 4)

2-10

Mj Hagel also suggests the Air Force can improve

logistics realism in CPXs by using improved mathematical

simulation modeling or realistic databases (Hagel, 1989:-

Ch 6, 4).

Several approaches, according to Capt Hall, have been

taken to improve CPX reality. An antiquated method for

handling aircraft activity used Pareto's principle (the

80/20 rule) (See Stock and Lambert, 1987:419). This method

assumed a percentage of the aircraft" returned in mission

capable condition; the aircraft simply refueled, rearmed and

was ready for another mission. The remaining aircraft

landed needing repair. This method didn't always identify

which system(s) on the aircraft required repair or what

parts would be needed to fix the system(s) (Hall, 1989:-

Ch 2, 9).

Mathematical simulation modeling, currently in use

throughout the Air Force, improves realism considerably.

Mathematical modeling, as Capt Hall reports, uses peacetime

repair and failure data to determine aircraft availability,

aircraft landing status, discrepancy repair times, and

repair parts. This method can be expanded to include other

logistical activities such as petroleum, oil, lubricant

(POL) , and munitions requirements (Hall, 1989:Ch 2, 9-10).

A relatively new method, historical databasing, uses

near wartime data to manage aircraft availability, determine

2-11

aircraft landing status, repair parts needed, and time to

repair the aircraft. This method relies on near war-like

data in place of peacetime repair and failure rates because

of the significant differences that exist with system fail-

ures under combat conditions. As reported by Capt Hall,

components with high failure rates during peacetime may fail

infrequently, if at all, under combat conditions. Likewise,

components that fail infrequently during peacetime may fail

frequently under combat flying conditions (Hall, 1989:Ch 2,

9-10).

Hall and Miller report that this approach forestalls

the question of internal or external validity because actual

aircraft discrepancies and parts requirements are derived

from near war-like conditions and used in a relatively unal-

tered state (Hall and Miller, 1990:34).

Hall and Miller also report that several benefits exist

that are associated with the use of historical databasing.

First, the database is reflective of the real world, and as

such, many of the complex real world influences are ac-

counted for automatically. Second, performance, re-

liability, and maintainability of aircraft systems are

reflected within the database. Third, specific supply anI

maintenance information is readily available for the user

i.e. NSNs, Noun, WUCs, quantity on order, repair times, and

discrepancies. Fourth, the database is easily developed and

2-12

can be easily modified. Fifth, the database is based on

real events, and as such, is easily accepted and used.

Sixth, the database is not dependent on computer support for

use; therefore, it is quite useful at any forward operating

location. Finally, from an exercise planner's point of

view, the results from the database can be foreseen. This

allows proponents of the procedural-only CPXs to maintain

control and anticipate possible logistical shortfalls that

may result from the use of the database. (Hall and Miller,

1990:35)

Summary

Military exercises play a crucial role in maintaining

strong readiness. They allow us to prepare for war during

peacetime. Exercises should be used as an unbiased tool to

improve ou. warfighting capability. In preparing exercises

we should look closely at the interrelationship between

logistics, strategy, and tactics, in order to match combat

capability with sound operational principles. Operators and

logisticians need to fully understand the principles by

which each other operates, and should try to integrate these

principles when planning military exercises. Realism must

be an integral part of these exercises so that commanders

can develop their warfighting skills under war-like con-

ditions. Realistic millitary exercises should be designed to

2-13

develop the character, intellect, and leadership our com-

manders will need to be successful in warfare. Logistics

realism at the CPX level must echo these desireable con-

ditions. Though heavily laden with simulation, wise use of

limiting factors can help overcome the undesirable con-

sequences of simulation with effective, realistic scenario

planning, and strong staff involvement. Continued improve-

ments with historical databasing and mathematical modeling

techniques should continue to improve realism at the command

post exercise level.

Chapter III will discuss the methodology used through-

out this research effort.

2-14

III. Methodology

Overview

The method outlined in Table 1 will be used to achieve

the objective of this thesis. The steps outlined in the

table will follow the basic methodology used during the

development of the B-52G database model (Hall, 1989:-

Ch 3, 1).

TABLE 1

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

1. Collect data

a) Procure ETTF ELF-i mission data

b) Verify useability of data

2. Develop KC-135A/E/R database model

a) Develop database reference tables

b) Develop practice database referencetables for use with the information guide

3. Develop information guide

4. Develop database evaluation surveys

5. Test KC-135A/E/R database model

6. Conduct field evaluations, observations,and interviews

7. Analyze results

3-1

A discussion of the research methodology follows. It

will examine the procedure to be used to complete each step

of the methodology as outlined in Table 1. For the sake of

clarity, steps 4 and 6 will be combined under the sub-head-

ing *Developing and Conducting the Evaluation.'

Data Collection

Data collection will involve a two-step process. The

first ste; involves finding an adequate source for the raw

data needt-d to build the database model. To provide as much

realism as possible, the data used to develop the KC-135-

A'E'R database model should come from a unit whose flying

mivsion closely replicates expected wartime missions. ELF 1

mission daca data collected dui.:ng support of Saudi Arabian

E3 aircraft) from European Tanker Task Force (ETTF) should

meet this requirement and is targeted for use in developing

the database model.

The second step involves performing verification analy-

sis of the data to determine its usability. The intent here

is to insure the data provides the necessary information

needed to develop the database model, and to insure the data

accurately reflects realistic maintenance conditions.

During the procurement process, the researcher will

screen all source data to ensure that it provides sufficient

information, and in sufficient quantity, to develop the

database model. The source data should include the follow-

3-2

ing items: aircraft maintenance landifig code, in-flight

discrepancies, quantity ordered, work unit code, job control

number, national stock number, and nomenclature for the

part(s) ordered. To ensure data accuracy, weapon system

experts will be used to validate the data.

KC-135A/E/R Database Model Development

Development of the KC-135A/E/R database model will in-

volve the merging of maintenance and supply data elements as

depicted in Figure 1.

Maintenance elements Supply Elements

- Aircraft maintenance - National stock numberlanding code - Nomenclature

- Inflight discrepancy - Work unit code- Quantity ordered- Work unit code- Job control number

KC-135A/E/R Database Model

Figure 1. KC-135A/E/R Database ModelSource Data Input

3-3

The work unit code (WUC) will be used as the key field

to link elements of the maintenance and supply databases.

The researcher will link the two databases by developing a

software program that matches the necessary supp]y data with

the appropriate maintenance data using WRSK listings sup-

plied by SAC headquarters.

A condensed version of the KC-135A/E/R database model

will also be developed for training purposes, and will be

used with the information guide. The condensed database

will simply be a collection of events taken from the

KC-135A/E/R database model.

Information Guide Development

Th( informati,0,n guide will be a modification of an

existing guide developed to support the B-52G Aircraft

Maintenance Database Model (Hall, 1989:Ap B). The purpose

of the information guide is to provide a standardized method

to train and/or familiarize response cell personnel with

procedures on how to manage aircraft activities, as well as

procedures on how to use the database model during a CPX.

Modifications to the information guide will include adjust-

ments for the KC-135 contingency phase inspection, and

mudification of the time required to perform preflight/thru-

flight inspections.

The InformAt1on guide will consist of detailed, step by

st.ep procediires to hande ',the following items:

,3-4 ,

1. Aircraft inspections:

a. Phase inspectionsb. Hourly postflight inspections (HPO)c. Preflight/thruflight inspections

2. Supply requirements:

a. Validating WRSK listingsb. Parts orderingc. Cannibalizationd. Mission Capability (MICAP) itemse. Minimum Essential Systems List (MESL) items

3. Documenting exercise forms:

a. Initial forms set up (STARTEX)b. Using the database

4. Handling special cases:

a. Accounting for aircraft attritionb. Additional/replacement aircraft(Hall, 1989:Ch 3, 3-4)

Developing and Conducting the Evaluation

A written response survey, interviews and observations

will be used to evaluate the effectiveness of the KC-135-

A/E/R database model. The researcher will modify an exist-

ing survey (Hall, 1989:Ap D) and develop further questions

for use during the evaluation phase of the research. CPX

response cell members will be evaluated using the survey to

test the hypothesis that there is an improved difference in

logistics realism between the KC-135A/E/R database model and

other mathematical models in use today.

The survey will employ the use of a Likert scale as a

means of quantifying responses (See Emory, 1985:255). The

3-5

reliability of the survey instrument will be tested using

the Cronbach's Coefficient Alpha technique (See Emory,

1985:100). The content validity of the survey instrument

will rely on expert opinion to ensure questions are develo-

ped that adequately cover the usefulness of the model and

its associated training material (See Emory, 1985:95).

The interview will be used primarily to improve the

quality of evaluation information by adding to, and clarify-

ing information gathered during the surveying procedure.

The interview will focus on capturing the concerns and

suggestions response cell personnel may have with using the

KC-135A/E/R database model and information guide. The

interview method will employ face-to-face interview tech-

niques, with responses recorded in writing (See Emory,

1985:160-169, 178-183).

Observations will be used by the researcher to view

first hand how effective the response cell personnel are in

using the KC-135A/E/R database model. The observations will

be inferential, and variables will be judged qualitatively.

Variables for the observation will concentrate on the degree

of usefulness each model provides their respective response

cell personnel. The researcher shall focus his attention on

evaluating several characteristics of the model to include

training, ease of use, accuracy, and supportability.

3-6

These particular characteristics of the model have been

singled olit for several reasons. The model must be easy to

use and simple to understand. During CPXs little time is

provided for training. The response cell personnel general-

ly must take it upon themselves to learn the system they

will use during the exercise. If the system is overly

complicated, it can lead to confusion, poor performance by

response cell members, and inaccurate information pitssed to

decision makers. Consequently, a database model that is

easily understood and used, is critical in order to be an

effective and reliable tool. The data provided by the model

must also be accurate. If not, the credibility of the model

is questioned leading to demotivation by the users, and

inaccurate information passed up the chain of command.

Finally, the model must be supportable, meaning that it must

provide the necessary information needed to accurately tasck

the supply system under realistic conditions.

Test KC-135A/E/R Database Model

The K(C-135A/E/R database model will be tested during

the 1990 Crested Eagle CPX. The exercise will provide the

means by which the model's usefulness can be validIted. A

static group design will be used as the experimental design

for the test. Such a design anvoles administerin, the

dit-'bacn: the CPX and making- compariso~ns between

respon.e cells using the Kr-I35A/E/R Database Model and a

3-7

control group of response cells not using the database

model. Comparative analysis will then focus on evatuation

survey responses from response cell members who have ex-

perience in using both the KC-135A/E/R database model and

other mathematical models during CPXs. A separate analysis,

through survey evaluations, will also be conducted on re-

sponse cell members that have used only the KC-135A/E/R

database model. Specific analysis procedures will be dis-

cussed next.

Analysis of Findings and Results

An extenzive analysis of the survey evaluations wil1 be

conducted comparing the two samples of response cell person-

nel. The first population will include those pers,.,nnel wit-h

exper[ence in u.sings both the KC-13iA/E/R d ,aboase model and

other mat.hematival models. A staListical analysis of survey

oz;ai,.,arons, will be conducted using a stude.ntized pai e-d

T-test to determine if themre ig a difference in logistics

realism between the KC-135A/E/R database model and the

mathematical model. The second population will include

those response cell personnel who have experience in using

just the KC-135A/E/R database model. Here a statistical

analysis of the survey evaluations will be conducted using

the Friedman's non-parametric two way analysis of variance

(ANOVA) procedure to determine if there is a significant

difference of opi.nion among users concernin d the usefulness

3-8

of the KC-135A/E/R database model. A non-parametric pro-

cedure should be used if the data variability for the col-

lected data is not equal. Equal variance is a necessary

assumption for use of Parametric ANOVA procedures. The

Friedman procedure will be used, rather than the Kruskal

Waflis procedure, to reduce data variability by blocking the

data by the individual questions from the evaluation survey.

This process will reduce the within variability of the data

thereby increasing the F statistic. Consequently, differ-

ences of opinion among respondents will be amplified.

Summary

The research methodology provide5 a sequential set of

steps the researcher will use to progress through the re-

search. Chapter IV will outline the results found from this

effort.

3-9

IV. Results, Findings, and Analysis

Overview

The methodology outlined in Chapter III was used as a

guide for data collection, development of the database

model, development of the information guide, and development

of the evaluation surveys. Modification, however, had to be

made for testing the database model and conducting field

evaluations because of the cancellation of the 1990 Crested

Eagle CPX.

A suitable alternate CPX was not available to test the

-database model within the time constraints of the research

project. Therefore, a mock exercise was conducted to test

the database model using volunteer graduate students from

the Air Force Institute of Technology's School of Systems

and Logistics. A survey was administered following the

termination of the mock exercise to evaluate the database,

= and information guide. Details of the procedure used; and

results, findings, and analysis, will be presented under the

headings *Testing the KC-135A/E/R Database Model,' and

*Evaluations, Observations, and Interviews' later in this

chapter.

The results of the methodology will be presented in the

same sequence of events as outlined in Table 1 of Chapter

III. Data collection will first be discussed followed by

development of the database model, development of the infor-

4-1

mation guide, development of the evaluation surveys, testing

of the database model, evaluation of the database model, and

finally, an analysis of the evaluation results.

Data Collection

Data collection was accomplished through a two step

process. The first step involved locating an adequate

source of data that met the requirements for the database

model. Once found, the second step involved validating the

data to ensure it provided the realism and accuracy neces-

sary for use in the database model. The detailed expla-

nation of each step will be discussed next.

ELF-i ETTF mission data (data collected during Saudi

Arabian E3 aircraft Tanker Task Force support) was initially

targeted for use as source data for the database model. The

use of ELF-1 mission data would provide an element of real-

ism that depicted war-like flying conditions that could

easily be incorporated into the database model. However,

necessary supply data was not available and an alternate

source of data had to be found. The next best available

source data that depicted war-like flying conditions was

that of routine ETTF flying missions. With ETTF mission

data, both the maintenance and supply data elements were

available and in sufficient quantity to build +.he database

model. Consequently, the ETTF mission data was chosen by

4-2

SAC/LGL and this researcher as source data for the KC-135-

A/E/R database model.

The source data Included the following maintenance and

supply database elements (among others):

1. Aircraft/System Maintenance Landing Code

2. Inflight Discrepancies

3. Maintenance Repair Times

4. Repair Parts by:

a. Work Unit Code (WUC)

b. Quantity Ordered

The source data did not include associated NSN and Nomen-

clature (Noun) supply data elements for each required part.

However, the remaining supply data elements could be ex-

tracted from WRSK listings, the VAMOSC (Visibility in Man-

agement of Operating and Support Cost) computer generated

support system, as well as through manual research.

The source data was provided by the llth Strategic

Group at RAF Fairford, UK. The data was generated using the

PCN SGO54-35A Maintenance History Report for on-equipment

maintenance, and covers five months of maintenance activity

starting 1 June 1989 and ending 31 October 1989.

The source data was initially screened by the re-

searcher and two senior NCOs from the 7th Organizational

Maintenance Squadron's Tanker Branch at Carswell AFB to

ensure the data was realistic and accurate. Cross checks

4-3

were performed randomly to verify that the elements reported

in each data field matched the reported maintenance dis-

crepancy. Approximately 30 percent of the database was

checked in this manner. Less than five percent of the

discrepancies checked contained error. Most of the errors

resulted from technicians failing to record the proper WUC

for the specific component; most of these errors were ac-

curate to the first three places of the WUC. Consequently,

the researcher concluded the source data provided a strong

degree of realism and accuracy, and the development of the

database model commenced.

KC-135A/E/R Database Model Development

Full Version.

A primary objective of this research effort was to

develop a database model that provides information in a

realistic form that can be useful to CPX response cell

personnel. To be successful, the database model must take

the input data from ETTF missions, along with associated

supply data, and provide output data for the database model

that will ensure full realism was preserved.

To develop the database model, source data elements had

to be merged with NSNs to make the database model complete.

A six step process was used to fully develop the model.

The first step involved developing a format for the

database model, and selecting a software package to support

4-4

it. To maintain consistency and standardization, a format

duplicating that of the B-52G Historical Database Model was

used. By maintaining a high degree of consistency and

standardization, response cell personnel familiar with one

historical database model can easily transition to another

model with little or no difficulty resulting from the format

of the database model. With the format set, a spreadsheet

software, QUATTRO version 1.2, was selected. This par-

ticular software package was selected primarily because of

its ease of use, and availability.

In step two of the development .process, maintenance and

supply elements from the source data were manually extracted

from the Maintenance History Report and placed in a QUATTRO

data file. The elements extracted for the maintenance

history report included:

1. Aircraft/System Maintenance Landing Code

2. Inflight Discrepancies

3. Maintenance Repair Times

4. Repair Parts by:

a. WUC

b. Quantity Ordered

Once complete, the NSN had to be linked with the associated

WUC from the maintenance history report and placed in the

QUATTRO data file.

4-5

Step three involved performing the linking process.

This process turned out to be rather long and laborious. A

portion of the required linking was accomplished using WRSK

data files supplied by HQ SAC/LGSMO. WUCs were extracted

from the QUATTRO data file and placed in a DBASE III+ file

along with the WRSK data. A DBASE III+ program was written

to search the WR JK data for a matching WUC and link the WUC

to the NSN. Once complete, the new file was imported back

into the QUATTRO data file,

Not all WUCs could be linked using this process though.

A computer software support sys-tem called VAMOSC was used to

link 70 WUCs with NSNs. The VAMOSC system is a support

system under the control of HQ AFLCs Cost Accounting Direc-

torate (AFLC/ACC). Though used for cost accounting pur-

poses, the VAMOSC system has the capability of cross refer-

encing a WUC for the KC-135 aircraft with its associated NSN

and Noun.

Even after using the VAMOSC system, 17 additional WUCs

had to be manualLy researched. Once the research was com-

plete, the collected WUCs and matching NSNs from both the

VAMOSC system and through manual research were entered into

the QUATTRO data file.

Step four involved the simple process of assigning

maintenance event control numbers to the database elements

in the data file. The database elements associated with an

4-6

individual sortie were grouped together and a maintenance

event control number was assigned to identify each sortie.

Step five in the final preparation of the database

model development involved the deletion of unnecessary

records from the data file. The only records deleted from

the data file were those that did not contribute to the

purpose of the database design. These records were clas-

sified as insignificant, minor discrepancies, requiring no

parts, and that did not impair or degrade from the mission

of the aircraft.

The final step for the development of the database

model development involved identifying the overall fix time

for a sortie having a Code 3 discrepancy and placing an

asterisk in the adjacent LNDG CODE column. With this final

step to the data file finished, the database model was ready

for testing.

The completed KC-135A/E/R Aircraft Maintenance Logis-

tics Database is located in Appendix A. The columns of the

database, as defined by Capt Hall, follows:

Maintenance Event Control Number - The control numberis used to identify a *maintenance event'for a particular aircraft on the CPX MXWorksheets 1 and 2. A maintenance eventincludes all the lines of discrepancies inthe database associated with an aircraft

4-7

landing from a sortie. It also provides ameans of record keeping for later analy-sis.

Acft T.N. - The aircraft tail number to which themaintenance event is assigned is enteredin this column (by the user).

Lndg Code - Identifies the maintenance condition of anaircraft returning from a mission.

Code 1: Aircraft/system(s) fully oper-ational. Aircraft is landing with noknown discrepancies which would adverselyaffect performance of the aircraft/sys-tem(s).

Code 2: Aircraft/system(s) having minordiscrepancies which may affect operatingperformance but will generally not pre-clude the aircraft from flying anothermission prior to repair.

Code 3: Aircraft/system(s) having dis-crepancies which render the aircraftand/or system(s) unusable. Generally,aircraft are not flown until Code Z dis-crepancies are repaired.

Fix Time - The time needed t-o repair a discrepancylisted in the database. The times listeddo not include normal refuel, phase, HPO,preflight/thruflight or inspections.

(Time in hours to the nearest tenth). Theoverall aircraft fix time is identified byan asterisk in the Lndg Code column whenan aircraft has Code 3 discrepancies.

NSN - The national stock number (NSN) of theneeded repair parts.

Noun - The nomenclature of the needed repairpart.

WUC - The work unit Code (WUC) identifies amajor repair part, system or subsystem.

Qty - Quantity of repair part(s), if needed.

4-8

In WRSK - For the user to identify if the repairpart is available in the WRSK (Yes/No).

MESL - For the user to identify whether theaffected system is on the minimum essen-tial systems list (MESL) in AFR 65-110,SAC Supplement 1, if the part is not on-hand (Yes/No).

Msg DTG - For the user to record the date-time-group of the message requesting a part notavailable in the WRSK.

Remarks - To provide a short, general description ofthe discrepancy associated with eachrecord. (Hall, 1989:Ch 4, 9-11)

The database model incorporates a high degree of inter-

nal and external validity. Capt Hall's elaboration of the

inherent validity strengths of historical database models

are fully supported by ahd incorporated into this database

model. He argues that the method used to develop historical

database models forestalls any question of either internal

or external validity because actual aircraft discrepancies

and part requirements are used in a relatively unaltered

state. The historical database model uses data from actual

aircraft flying missions. Additionally, internal validity

can be confirmed by ensuring exact one to one relationships

as database fields are joined and through follow-up verifi-

cation checks of all fields within each record in the data-

base. (Hall, 1989:Ch 4, 12)

4-9

Practice Database.

A condensed version of the database model was developed

for use with the information guide solely for training pur-

poses. Once the full version was complete, a practice data-

base was built by extracting a small number of maintenance

events and placing them together in a separate database

file. The maintenance events selected present a broad

variation of discrepancies to response cell personnel during

their pre-exercise training session. This will allow en-

hanced training by providing response cell personnel an

opportunity to view the data before hand, so that questions

concerning the database model may be asked. The Practice

Database is located in Appendix C.

A set of training slides have also been developed to

enhance the training process. Some of the sl-ides were

duplicated from the B-52G Historical Aircraft Maintenance

Database Model and modified to support the KC-135A/E/R

Database (See Hall, 1989:Ap F). The training slides are

located in Appendix F.

Information Guide

An information guide is needed as documentation to

provide clear and concise procedures and training on how to

manage aircraft activities, and how to use the database

model.

4-10

The information guide is a replication of the one used

with the B-52G Aircraft Maintenance Database Model (See

Hall, 1989:Ap B). Modifications to the content have been

made to accommodate the KC-135A/E/R aircraft. These modifi-

cations include adjustments for the KC-135 contingency phase

inspection, and modification of the preflight/thruflight

inspection time requirement.

The information guide is designed to provide the user

with a set of practical requirements in a set of procedures

that are easily understood, and in a format that allows

quick access to the information. The guide is also arranged

in an order that coincides with expected pre-exercise train-

ing sessions.

The procedures outlined in the information guide are

based on current aircraft maintenance requirements, and

current supply procedures as directed by SAC regulation and

appropriate technical data (as of this writing). The spe-

cific procedures cover the following areas:

1. Aircraft inspections:

a. The purpose, frequency, and how to handle thephase inspections.

b. The purpose, frequency, and how to handle thehourly postflight (HPO) inspections.

c. Accounting for aircraft preflight/thruflightinspections.

2. Aircraft parts requirements:

a. Checking the WRSK listing for available parts.b. Ordering of parts.

4-11

I

c. Interpreting the Minimum Essential System List(MESL) in AFR 65-110, SAC Supplement 1.

d. Handling cannibalization of MICAP parts.

3. Documentation of exercise forms:

a. Initial setup of forms at the start of theexercise (STARTEX).

b. Extracting maintenance events from the data-base and plotting the data.

4. Handling special cases:

a. Dealing with late takeoffs, maintenance can-cellations.

b. Accounting for ground or airborne attrition ofaircraft.

c. Incorporating additional/replacement aircraftin the flow of events.

d. Handling of aircraft diverted from other loca-tions. (Hall, 1989:Ch 4, 12-13)

The completed KC-135A/E/R Database Model Information

Guide is located in Appendix B.

Evaluation Survey Development

Two written response surveys were used to evaluate the

effectiveness of the KC-135A/E/R database model. The sur-

veys were designed to test the hypothesis that the KC-135-

A/E/R database model improves logistics realism in CPXs, and

that the database model is easy to use.

Two survey instruments were needed to accommodate the

two population groups to be sampled (See Appendix E). The

first evaluation survey, titled "KC-135A/E/R Aircraft Main-

tenance Logistics Database Evaluation, Evaluation Survey l,"

was administered to all personnel participating in the mock

exercise. With this group, the survey instrument was de-

4-12

signed to allow comparisons of opinion among respondents

with respect to the test hypothesis. That is, the results

would help answer the question *does the database model

provide realistic logistical information to the response

cell member?. With the sample population having no pre-

vious CPX experience, they are not capable of making a

judgement on whether the database model improves realism

over existing models currently in use. Therefore, a second

survey instrument, titled "Evaluation 2, Previous Experience

in CPX," was needed to evaluate those personnel who have had

previous experience as a response cell member so that a

comparison of improved realism can be made between the

database model and other models currently in use.

Both evaluation surveys were developed using a five

-point Likert scale to quantify responses. Three constructs

were used as a basis for develoning questions in the sur-

veys. The first construct asked questions to determine if

the database model is realistic. Questions 1 and 5 in the

first evaluation survey, and questions 1 and 4 in the second

evaluation survey were used in support of the first con-

struct. The second construct asked questions to determine

if the database model was easy to use. Questions 2, 3, 4,

6, and 7, of Evaluation Survey 1, and questions 2, 3, 5, 6,

and 7 of Evaluation Survey 2 were used in support of the

second construct. The third construct asked questions to

determine the usefulness of the information guide. Ques-

4-13

tions 9 and 10 of the first survey, and question 8 of the

second survey were used in support of the third construct.

Many of the questions used in both surveys were modi-

fied from an existing survey used to evaluate the B-52G

database model. The B-52G survey was used because it pro-

vided .a fairly high measure of consistency in its ability to

measure the usefulness of the B-52G Database Model. To make

this claim, a test of the B-52G evaluation survey's reliab-

ility was conducted by this researcher to determine its

internal consistency. A Cronbach's coefficient alpha of

.7985 was computed using the SPSS-X mainframe statistical

software package. Based on these findings, the researcher

concluded the B-52G Model's evaluation survey provided a

fair degree of internal consistency and would therefore be a

useful guide toward the development of the two evaluation

surveys for this research effort.

Testing the KC-135A/E/R Database Model

The KC-135A/E/R Database Model was tested during a mock

exercise held at the Air Force Institute of Technology's

School of Systems and Logistics on 20 April 1990. Its

purpose was to validate the model's usefulness by deter-

mining if the model met the objectives of this research

effort; namely, to provide improved logistical realism for

response cell members during a CPX.

In validating the model, three specific constructs were

tested. First and foremost, the element of realism was

4-14

tested. Realistic tasking orders were used by each response

cell team to launch, recover, and maintain their fleet of

aircraft throughout the exercise. Second, ease of use of

the database, CPX maintenance worksheets, and information

guide were tested. A highly compressed time line was used

to artificially induce time constraints on the response cell

team members during the exercise. If the database and its

associated material were difficult to use, this would be

amplified under an artificially induced time constraint.

Finally, the need for minimal training was tested. Each

team was provided a copy of the Information Guide to read

four da7s prior to the beginning of the exercise. Addition-

ally, a one hour training session was provided just prior to

the start of the exercise to ensure each member was somewhat

familiar with their responsibilities. The need for minimal

training is considered critical to the success of the model.

Typically, only minimal training is provided to response

cell personnel prior to accomplishing their duties as a

response cell member. The model and its associated documen-

tation should provide enough information, as stand alone

documents, so response cell members can understand and use

the database model effectively during an exercise.

4-15

Composition of the Mock Exercise.

A total of thirteen Officers from the School of Systems

and Logistics volunteered to participate as response cell

members during the mock exercise. Each, from their respec-

tive backgrounds, provided a unique perspective to the

exercise. The thirteen volunteers consisted of one rated

navigator, two logistics planners and ten aircraft main-

tenance officers.

The mock exercise was composed of five teams each cc,.

taining two or three personnel. Each team was assigned

either 7, 9, 11, 13, or 15 aircraft a- the primary number of

aircraft assigned (FAA) under their control. Each aircraft

was assigned fabricated tail numbers and total airframe

flying hours. Each team was assigned a specific set of

maintenance event control numbers (from the database) for

use during the exercise. This 'would allow the team members

to collectively sample a broader portion of the database

model during the exercise than would otherwise be sampled if

they had all started from the same point. Additionally,

teams 1 and 2 used the WRSK listing designed to support a

deployment of 10 aircraft, while teams 3, 4 and 5 used the

WRSK listing supporting a deployment of 15 aircraft.

The exercise covered a 48 hour period of time com-

pressed into four hours of actual exercise play. Each team

received two tasking orders during the exercise (See Appen-

dix G) . The tasking orders were designed to realistically

4-16

reflect demands placed on a response cell during a CPX.

Finally, the researcher acted as the exercise coordinator

and exercise controller. He determined when necessary

mission capable (MICAP) parts and routine refill of the WRSK

were received. His purpose was to duplicate the commun-

icatiorn and coordination processes that would typically

exist between the regional Logistic Readiness Center (LRC)

and the response cells.

Table 2 provides a synopsis of specific team com-

position and assignments used throughout the exercise.

TABLE 2

MOCK EXERCISE TEAM COMPOSITION AND ASSIGNMENTS

# of Primary Maint. Event WRSKPersonnel Aircraft Control # liston Team Assigned Used Used

Team 1 2 7 300 - 359 10

Team 2 2 9 225 - 299 10

Team 3 3 11 150 - 224 15

Team 4 3 13 075 - 149 15

Team 5 3 15 001 - 074 15

Worksheets were used by each team to track their pro-

gress through the exercise. The worksheets are the same as

4-17

those developed by Capt Hall for the B-52G Database Model

(See Hall, 1989:Ap E), and are located in Appendix D.

The objective for each team was to maintain their fleet

of aircraft in the highest state of readiness possible while

fulfilling the tasking orders levied upon them by CPX head-

quarters.

Evaluation Survey 1 Results.

At the completion of the mock exercise each participant

completed the KC-135 Aircraft Maintenance Logistics Database

Evaluation (Evaluation Survey 1). Those personnel who, at

some previous time in their career, had participated as a

CPX response cell member also completed a second Evaluation

Survey (Evaluation Survey 2) (See Appendix E).

The results of.Evaluation Survey 1 will be presented

first. Each question will be listed along with summary

statistics and associated comments made by each respondent.

1.---- The database helped make exercise play in theresponse cell more realistic.

Strongly Tend to Can't agree Tend to Stronglyagree agree or disagree disagree disagree

1 2 3 45

IK ADEFG BL Cif J M

Total StdrdResponses 13 Mean 2.15 Dev .80

4-18

Why or how?

A. (no comment)

B. *I really don't have anything to comparewith.*

C, "Everything was Code 2 and used parts only

once.

D. "Having realistic MX breaks to fix times lends

credibility."

E. "Actual maintenance discrepancies easy to re-late to real world.*

F. "Conditions realistic, especially parts avail-

ability.*

G. "We need a scenario to go by."

H. *Knowing the status of the acft on landingallowed some gaming prior to filling line.'

I. *Provided factual times for maint. actionsthat made you take the required amount oftime to complete. It doesn't allow you tocheat.*

J. "Good format for depicting NX and supplyevents.'

K. "Provided the core for maintenance involve-ment."

L. *Because I have no experience with tankers Idon't have any feeling for how realistic thedatabase really was."

M. (no comment)

4-19

2. ------- The database makes it easy to get theinformation I need to plot aircraft maintenanceactions, inspections, and turn times.

Strongly Tend to Can't agree Tend to Strongly

agree agree or disagree disagree disagree

1 2 3 4 5

AFGIJ BCDH EKL

Total StdrdResponses 12 Mean = 1.50 Dev = .67

Why or how?

A. *You have real world info instead of simulated

times.'

B. (no comment)

C. "It's unknown as to whether supply support wasrealistically tasked.'

D. (no comment)

E. *Nothing to compare it with.*

F. *All needed info available.*

G. (no comment)

H. 'Everything important to the exercise wasreadily available.

I. All actions had easily understood times thatwere readily available.'

J. "MX hours well depicted.'

K. *You might add blank lines where inputs shouldbe written in the database (tail number).*

L. "Exceptionally easy to use. I originallythought the time compression would be a reallimiting factor. In the end we could havehandled 2-3 times our tasking (9 PAA) .

4-20

M. (Participant did not respond to this question)

3. The database makes it easy to get the infor-mation I need to determine the availability ofeach aircraft.

Strongly Tend to Can't agree Tend to Strongly

agree agree or disagree disagree disagree

1 2 3 4 5

BFGIJ ADHILM E CK

Total StdrdResponses = 13 Mean 1.92 Dev = 1.26

Why or how?

A. "Once you place a maint. event control numberwith an aircraft you can better determine itsavailability.'

B. *I can quickly determine availability.*

C. "All the necessary info was given to develop aflow schedule.'

D. (no comment)

E. "This info comes from the CPX worksheets."

F. *Database with background knowledge made thistask easy.*

G. (no comment)

H. (no comment)

I. "Condition codes of aircraft and the dis-crepancies were clear enough to determine ifthe acft was able to make its mission.*

4-21

J. *By identifying type (Code) of discrepancy and

mean maintenance time (MMT)."

K. *Clearly specified.'

L. *My lack of tanker experience made me guess ona few aircraft availability times, but ingeneral, if this were a fighter database theinfo would have been more than sufficient andmy answer would be a 'Strongly Agree'.*

M. (no comment)

4. The database makes it easy for me to determinewhat repair parts I need when an aircraftlands.

Strongly Tend to Can't agree -Tead to Strongly

agree agree or disagree disagree disagree

1 2 3 4 5

ABDEFGH CIJKLM

Total StdrdResponses 13 Mean = 1.15 Dev = .55

Why or how?

A. 'We had the parts actually used to fix theaircraft.'

B. *The MECN made it quite clear what parts wererequired.'

C. (no comment)

D. *Specific description of problems.*

E. 'The info is readily available."

F. "ure, the MDC would increase ava i1abi1ity ofparts.'

G. (no comment)

4-22

H. (no comment)

I. *Yes, it tells me exactly what part I need.'

J. 'Very realistic. All the input data is

there.*

K. 'Clearly specified.*

L. "Very easy to use, almost instant under-standing of the format.*

M. "NSNs provided.'

5. Having the discrepancy associated with a givenpart requirement helped make the demands morerealistic.

Strongly Tend to Can't agree Tend to Strongly

agree agree or disagree disagree disagree

1 2 3 4 5

ADJ KL BEFGH C MI

Total StdrdResponses = 13 Mean = 1.77 Dev .73

Why or how?

A. (no comment)

B. (no comment)

C. 'It's unknown whether this is true becausecan't assess whether demands are realistic

for this aircraft.*

D. *Same as # 1 [Having realistic MX breaks tofix times lends credibility.].*

E. 'Shows the relation between the write-up andthe parts required.*

4-23

F. 'Tends to be more of a learning tool for those

that don't know."

G. (no comment)

H. 'In this scenario, the discrepancy was notreally a player.

I. (no comment)

J. *Having a part levied against the downtime, orvice versa, provides credibility.'

K. "Woitld help in judging the condition of theA/C.*

L. 'Absolutely - if I was provided the part re-quirement only, I would be providing a totalguess, the discrepancy is very helpful.'

M. (no comment)

6. Having the noun and work unit code associatedwith the national stock number for a neededpart helped me locate the part in the WRSKlisting and more easily identify the item inmessage traffic.

Strongly Tend to Can't agree Tend to Strongly

agree agree or disagree disagree disagree

2 3 4 5

IL HK AG J BCDEFIM

Total StdrdResponses 13 Mean = 3.53 Dev 1.61

Why or how?

A. *The NOUN did not help in the WRSK listing-the WUC did, unless the part was not listedwith WUC - having th-? ability to sort the

4-24

WRSK listing by NSN would make parts mucheasier to find.'

B. *We still had to check every stock number.The WUC didn't match the stock number.*

C. "The WRSK list needs to be sequenced by NSN."

D. "NSN and WUC didn't help on this particularexercise because of tne WRSK listing format.'

E. "WUC didn't help at all with the WRSK. TheNOUN was not available in the WRSK listing.May have helped in messages.'

F. "NSN need to be ordered, nomenclature shouldbe included.*

G. -NOUN wasn't available in WRSK listing. Itwould have been helpful.'

H. -In this case, no. If listing were aligned inWUC order then yes - would recommend in NSNorder.*

I. *Would have if I used listing right. However,the proper way to.use the list needs to bestressed to those who will be using it.Also, the info needs to be sorted by WUC,NSN.

J. We didn't know that the WUC grouped every-thing together. An oversight on our part.*

K. Need to stress WUC as a way of finding theNSN. NSN or WUC need to be in sequential or-der.*

L. We searched the NOUN and WUC colurnns first.*

M. "We did not find any WUCs in the listing."

7. ......- Having the noun and Work unvit code associatedwith the national stock number for a neededpart helped me determine whether a part wasessential to fly a given mission and trackcannibalizations.

4-25

Strongly Tend to Can't agree Tend to Strongly

agree agree or disagree disagree disagree

1 2 3 4 5

D E FGH AB C I J XL M

Total StdrdResponses 13 Mean = 3.08 Dev 1.04

Why or how9

A. "Never really came into play - used the WUC tocheck the MESL on two items."

B. *In our scenario we only needed one part, andit was a Code 2 write-up."

C. "Did not use the MESL."

D. "Helped re-late to the MESL."

E. 'Made checking the MESL easy having the NOUNthe WUC was used in tracking CANN parts."

F. *Background and MESL also helped."

G. "WUC was needed to cross reference to MESL.We tracked CANNs on CPX MX worksheet."

H. *Again, not in this case - but if a CANN logwere MX, then yes.'

I. "The NOUN and NSN don't tell me if the part iscritical."

J. "The landing code tells me if the part isimportant or not. We didn't have CANNs so itwas difficult to test this. Additionally, Ican't remember having seen the tracking ofCANNs in the book."

K. "Doesn't help track cannibalizations. WUC notoverly useful."

L. "Made no difference. Our decision on partessentialability had nothing to do with NOUN

4-26

and WUC availability. We did not accomplishany CANNs."

M. "Unfamiliar with the part redundancy withinthe aircraft."

8. ------- The CPX MX Worksheets along with the newsymbols and charting technique streamlined thetracking of each aircraft's flying and main-tenance requirements.

Strongly Tend to Can't agree Tend to Stronglyagree agree or disagree disagree disagree

A21 2 3 4 5

IJK ABDEG CFMHL

Total StdrdResponses = 13 Mean 2.00 Dev = .71

Why or how?

A. "Easy to work with and understand. Trackingall the numbers make the sheets very clut-tered. Some symbol other than just "maint"would be useful for tracking maint."

B. "The symbols made it easier to track air-craft."

C. "I've never done this before so I can't saywhether it's an improvement or not."

D. "As long as it's standardized it really didn'tmatter much what the symbols were."

E. *Nothing to. compare with, but it did seem toflow smoothly after training familiar-ization."

F. "Another team member used CPX MX worksheets,he didn't seem to experience any problems.

4-27

G. "No method specified for CANNs. Had justenough room without tracking refuelingpoints.'

H. Everything important to the exercise was

readily available."

I. Was easy to understand and follow.'

J. *Gave a good standardized format. Needs tohave two horizontal lines per mission. '

K. *Standardized symbols helped. Should carry-over maintenance be included on the work-sheets?"

L. It was very easy to chart but I don't knowwhy we tracked ARCT and fuel loads.'

M. "I don't know how it was done before.*

9.-Working with the practice data base and othertraining materials adequately prepared me forusing the database during the exercise.

Strongly Tend to Can't agree Tend to Strongly

agree agree or disagree disagree disagree

2 3 4 5

GHL ABCDF EI J K M

Total StdrdResponses 13 Mean 1.92 Dev = .76

Why or how?

A. 'Helped me to quickly become familiar with

info."

B. 'The example prior to STARTEX was sufficient."

C. (no comment)

4-28

D. 'Gave me a feel for how all the documents fittogether.*

E. *Not enough time was available during trainingbut having some additional time at the begin-ning of STARTEX helped.*

F. 'Operations ran very smoothly, no problems.

G. (no comment)

H. (no comment)

I. *It gave me some practical experience.'

J. 'Practice makes perfect. Training on the restA of the MESL (or its importance) would have

even been fine.'

K. *We were rushed in our classroom training."

L. "Yes - the short training session and youravailability in the early exercise phase pro-vided excellent preparation.'

M. *It helped explain what I wasn't sure of byjust reading the book.*

10. ____-- The information guide helped me'understand myjob in the response cell and answered the ques-tions I had.

Strongly Tend to Can't agree Tend to Strongly

agree agree or disagree disagree disagree

2 3 4 5

AHIJ BCFGK D EL M

Total StdrdResponses : 13 Mean = 2.00 Dev = 1.08

Why or how'

4-29

a. What information was not provided thatwould have been helpfu-

b. What information was provided that was notuseful or helpful?

A. "Well put together - contains the needed infofor completing the response cell require-ments."

B. "Along with the intro prior to STARTEX."

C. 'See comments in the Guide."

D. "I didn't get it in time to read it fully.'

E. "After thoroughly studying the guide (readthrough two or more times) it covered every-thing quite well,"

"Better description of how Code 2's could be

handled - parts use, cancelled maintenance.'

"Fuel loads and ARCT times were not used,"

F. "Briefing was more helpful."-

G. "Info on tracking Code 2s could have been morespecific."

'The ability to look ahead to determine land-ing codes before takeoff detracted from real-ism. Phase and HPO hours should be trackeddescending rather than ascending. A briefwrite-up on concept of maintenance for theairframe would have been helpful i.e. pre-flights immediately before flight instead ofon swings. Phase theory - hours versusdays."

H. (no comment)

I. "The 'NUTSHELLs' in the book were great'"

J. "The recaps (NUTSHELLs) were a valuable aiddur in the exercise.

4-30

K. 'The in a NUTSHELL sections were very useful.You might put them in an implementationchecklist or appendix.'

"Emphasis needs to be placed on not accomp-lishing tasks before possible. (i.e. followexercise times realistically.)'

L. "The guide and the training session preparedme adequately. Either tool standing alonewould not have been sufficient in the time wehad available.*

"I was confused on the concurrency of MXactions."

M. "It helped me (even though I only had limitedtime to review it prior to the exercise).*

"Parts list in NSN sequence.'

"WUC Codes."

"We should not have been given A/C statusuntil it returned. (possibly in a sealed en-velope)*

Evaluation Survey 1 provided a fairly high measure of

internal consistency in its ability to measure the useful-

ness of the KC-135 Database Model. A Cronbach's coefficient

alpha of .7561 was measured for Evaluation Survey 1.

Analysis of Findings and Results.

Non-statistical Analysis.

A non-statistical analysis of the research design, and

of the data collected, was performed to identify trends or

possible inconsistencies with the data that confuse, cause

4-31

disorder, or otherwise prevent a clear understanding of the

data results. The collected data must be as free as pos-

sible from confounds so that correct conclusions can be in-

ferred from its results. For this data set, confounds were

caused by the experimental design, to include the environ-

ment the test was conducted in, and by the personnel used in

testing of the database model.

An optimal environment to test the database model would

have been during an actual CPX where personnel, familiar

with the aircraft, would have been deployed at forward

operating locations. Though this environment would have

presented its own set of confounds, it would have provided a

truer picture of the database model's useability. This

should occur, primarily, because the environment for which

the database model is intended to be used would be in place,

along with personnel qualified to act as response cell

members.

Unfortunately, a CPX was not available for the testing

of the database model. The next best option available to

the researcher, in the time allotted for completion of the

research effort, was to conduct a 'Mock* exercise to test

the database model. This would be done by simulating a CPX

environment at AFIT using volunteer graduate students to run

the database model. On a scale of desirability, where a

4-32

test of the database model using a CPX would rate a top

score of 10, a mock exercise only rates a three.

A mock exercise is not as desireable as a CPX to test

the database model for several reasons. A large number of

artificially induced confounds exist with a mock exercise

that could adversely bias, taint, or skew the test results.

Duplication of the CPX environment is one such example.

The majority of the volunteers, as well as this researcher,

A have had no previous exposure to the CPX environment. It is

therefore difficult to capture those elements of purpose

that exist in a CPX where the mission, objectives, scope,

and overall limitations of the exercise are understood. To

reduce this. confound in the mock exercise, the researcher

conducted extensive informal interviews with several person-

nel knowledgeable of CPXs to gain an understanding of how a

CPX, at the response cell level, is conducted.

Another confound that can effect the data was the

amount of time the volunteers could devote to the mock

exercise. Due to the academic pressures of a full course

load plus thesis research, volunteers were only asked to

devotez half a day to this research effort. Therefore, the

researcher elected to compress 48 hours of actual CPX play

into four hours of mock exercise play. To reduce the pos-

sible effects of this confound, only essential exercise

inputs were given to the personnel so that their efforts

4-33

could remain focused on testing the database model during

the entire four hours of exercise play.

Still another confound that can effect the data results

revolve around the backgrounds of the volunteers. Three

considerations come into play here. First, a narrow point

of view with evaluating the database model may be present.

Ten of the 13 volunteers are aircraft maintenance officers.

Some may evaluate the database model from a purely main-

tenance point of view without regard for broader logistical

considerations the model can have in support of the overall

mission.

Second, eleven of the 13 volunteers have had no pre-

viDus experience with CPXs. Therefore, they have no frame

of reference to draw from to understand how the many parts

of the exercise fit together as a whole. They may therefore

be limited in understanding the overall impact, com-

plexities, and interdisciplinary relationships that must

exist between logistical support and operational require-

ments needed to meet mission taskings. To further expand

this point, a converse side may also exist. The two volun-

teers who had previous experience as response cell members,

had that experience in a tactical environment. There may be

enough of a difference in CPX procedures among the major

commands to cause possible bias in how this database model

was evaluated. Preconceived expectations may not have been

satisfied with the mock exercise that would have normally

4-34

occurred in a tactical CPX. Little can be done to counter

this confound except recognizing that it exists, and re-

cruiting personnel with experience or with a compatible

background to those personnel typically used in CPXs. The

researcher made every effort to ensure this confound was'

minimized.

The third and most important possible confound relating

to the background of the volunteers is that none of the

A personnel had any experience with the KC-135 aircraft. Both

from an operations point of view and from a maintenance

point of view it would be difficult to evaluate the useful-

ness of the database model without having some KC-135 air-

craft background.

An important next step was to carefully scrutinize the

respondent's comments. Many of the confounds previously

identified were evident in the comments made by the respon-

dents. Additionally, analysis of the comments identified

further confounds that may have tainted the test results.

The most noted problem, identified by 7 of the 13

respondents, dealt with the format of the WRSK supply list-

ing. The respondents had difficulty determining if a needed

-part was available in supply because the WRSK listing was

not sorted by NSN or WUC. This forced the respondents to

search through each page of the WRSK listing to determine if

the needed part was available. Though the WRSK listing is

not part of the database model itself, it is a necessary

4-35

tool to monitor consumption data for supply parts. Unfor-

tunately, the data results of question six reflect this

problem thereby severely tainting the overall evaluation of

the database model.

A second problem, identified by five respondents, deals

with the inherent design of the database model. Because the

entire database is available to response cell members at the

beginning of an exercise, *gaming" can result. That is,

response cell members can determine, ahead of time, what

their future needs will be. If not controlled at the res-

popse cell level, exercise realism can be seriously.

effected. The supply system can be unjustly tasked through

the requisition of parts not ye~t needed, which will lead to

inflated aircraft availability.

The third problem, identified by four respondents, sup-

ports- an earlier identified confound of the mock exercise.

Namely, the respondents had no previous CPX experience they

could- use for comparison against this database model. With-

out prior CPX experience, it was difficult to make an objec-

tive evaluation. Clearer stated evaluation objectives could

have reduced this confound somewhat.

Other comments made by the respondents that supported

or identified possible confounds included lack of experience

with the aircraft (3 comments), unfamiliar with exercise

procedures (2 comments), and not understanding the question

(I comment).

4-36

Several comments were hard to interpret. Five comments

did not make any sense what-so-ever with respect to the

question being asked. This may have resulted from an unclear

understanding of the question. Another comment was made

that was inconsistent with the respondent's numerical re-

sponse for that question. This may be attributed to a miss-

mark by the respondent, or, as stated earlier, an unclear

understanding of the question being asked.

Finally, a single comment was made concerning the un-

realistically low number of Code 3 discrepancies identified

in the database. Though this comment supports an earlier

identified confound stemming from unfamiliarity with the

-aircraft, it is nevertheless a comment worth investigating.

During the development phase of the database model, the

-researcher had also identified an abnormally low number of

Code 3 discrepancies present in the source data. At present

the researcher has been unable to pin point the exact cause.

The data does not appear abnormal to the maintenance experts

who reviewed the raw data. The experts argue that aircraft

typically deployed to support ETTF requirements tend to have

fewer Code 3 discrepancies. Though this appears to be the

case with this database model, the researcher has been

unable to confirm or disprove this argument.

4-37

A second concern with the database model is reflected

in the dramatic decrease in the number of discrepancies per

aircraft and an associated decrease in the number of parts

replaced. Figure 2, Graph 1, shows the number of parts re-

* '-=-" !.0 so:rties flown. From this graph it

Ing has occurred to effect the number

r the five months the ETTF data covers.

on in parts consumed may be partially explained

by an apparent decrease in the number of discrepancies

reported.

Figure 2, Graph 2, shows the relationship between the

total number of discrepancies reported per every 50 sorties

flown and the number of parts replaced for each of those 50

sorties. As would be expected, as the total number of dis-

crepancies decrease, the parts consumption should decrease

as well; however, as Graph 2 shows, parts consumption drops

sharply in relation to the decreased number of discrepan-

cies. The researcher believes some other event, besides a

decrease in discrepancies, has occurred to cause the sharp

drop in parts consumption. As yet, the researcher has been

unable to isolate the cause.

With the non-statistical analysis of the data complete,

it is now necessary to perform statistical analysis.

4-38

Graph INumnber of Parts Required /50 Sorties

Number

Required

40-

30

50 150 250 350too 200 300

Numter of Sorties Flown

Graph 2Parts VS Discrepancies /50 Sorties

120

Total 60-Number

60

40-

20-

4 050 150 250 350

100 200 300

Nmber of Sorties Flown

Figure 2. Graphical Com~parison1 ofo PartLs/Discrepanci'esFrom ETTF Source Data

4-39

Statistical Analysis.

Statistical analysis will be performed using STATISTIX

II, An Interactive Statistical Analysis Program for Micro-

computers, by NH Analytical Software.

Identifying Confounds.

Several steps were taken during the analysis to statis-

tically identify outliers caused by confounds within the

data. Outliers are those possibly faulty extreme measure-

ments that stand out from the rest of the data (McClave and

Benson, 1988:126). Outliers can taint or skew the data

causing erroneous results when analyzed.

A first step in the analysis was to review the raw

data. Table 3 shows the raw data in a form easily used for

comparison. The vertical axis corresponds to each of the

questions from Evaluation Survey 1 found in Appendix E. The

horizontal axis corresponds to each of the 13 respondents.

Each coordinate represents the numerical value from the

likert scale the. respondent chose in response to the asso-

ciated question. Descriptive statistics for the data is

provided in Table 4. Here, the calculated mean and standard

deviation are displayed, along with the sample size for each

respondent's associated probability distribution.

A missing data value is present in this data as in-

dicated in Table 3. The Friedman non-parametric ANOVA

procedure, a statistical procedure that will be used in

4-40

later data analysis, does not allow for missing data.

Therefore, to overcome this obstacle without affecting the

procedure's results, the respondent's probability dis-

tribution mean value of 2.5 will be substituted and used for

all statistical calculations.

TABLE .3

EVALUATION SURVEY 1

RAW DATA MATRIX

Respondents (Treatment)

(Block)Quest. A B C D E F G H I J K L M

3 2 4 9 2 2 2 2112 1 3 2

12 1 2 2 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 1

3 1 2 5 2 4 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 2

4 1 1 3- 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

5 1 1 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 3

6 5 3 5- 5 5 5 3 2 1 4 2 1 5

7 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 4 4 4 4 5

8 2 2 .3 2 2 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 3

9 2 2 2 2 4 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 2

10 2 1 2 3 5 2 2 1 1 1l 2 2 2

Missing data Value.

4-41

TABLE 4

DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS

EVALUATION SURVEY 1 DATA

Respondents- Sample Size Mean Standard Deviation

A 10 2.20 1.229

B 10 1.80 0.788

C 10 3.20 1.135

D 10 2.20 1.135 A

E 10 3.00 1.414

F 10 2.10 1.197

G 10 1.70 0.675

H 10 1.70 0.483

I 10 1.50 0_972

J 10 1.80 1.229

K 10 1.60 0.966

'L !.0 1.80. 1.033

M 9 * 2.50 1.310

Missing data value

Box and Whisker plots, shown in Figure 3, were used to

evaluate the raw data to determine if potential outliers

exist. The first plot evaluates if any outliers exist in

the data with respect to the respondents. while the second

4-42

plot evaluates the existence of outliers with respect to the

evaluation survey questions.

Respondent Box and Whisker Plot

--- (--- + ) -------------------

+-------+---------+--------------+--------------4-------------------------

1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.0

Question Box and Whisker Plot

---- + )

+-------4----------+--------------+--------------+------------------------

-1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5

+ The middle (MEDIAN) for the data set.

(1 Encloses the middle half of the data.

) Represent approximately 95% confidence intervals aboutthe medians.

-- Whiskers" that indicate typical data values.

* Indicates POSSIBLE outliers.

Figure 3. Box and Whisker PlotEvaluation Survey 1 Data

As can be seen from Figure 3, two possible outliers

exist within the data set for both the respondents and the

4-43

questions. It is important to determine, statistically, if

outliers do in fact exist in the data set so appropriate

measures can be taken to eliminate their influence. A

Friedman non-parametric 2-way ANOVA test was used to test

the null hypothesis that no difference exists in the prob-

ability distribution for each of the respondents, and that

no difference exists in the probability distribution for

each of the survey questions. The results can be seen in

Table 5-.

TABLE 5

FRIEDMAN TEST

DETERMINATION OF OUTLIERS

Test

Statistic P-Value

Respondents 37.26 .0002

Questions 44.43 .0000

At the .05 level of significance, the null hypothesis

can be rejected based on the P-Value for the two tests. The

conclusion that can be drawn from these tests are that dif-

ferences do exist in the probability distributions for both

the respondents and for the questions.

4-44

The next questions to answer, then, are which dis-

tributions are different, and, does a pattern exist that

supports the results of the Box and Whisker plot that out-

liers exist in the data for both the respondents and the

questions?

To answer these questions, a Wilcoxon Signed Ranked

test was first performed for each possible pair of ques-

t-ions. The researcher felt it important to identify any

-possible outliers with the questions first so corrective

actions can be taken prior to performing the Wilcoxon Signed

Ranked test on the respondents. That is, by first elimina-

ting confounds inherent with the questions, the confounds

inherent with respect to respondents are clearer to recog-

nize. Table 6 will show the results of the test for each

pa!r of--questions. The test null hypothesis used during

each of the tests ks that both probability distributions are

identical. The test was conducted at the .05 level of

significance. A matrix is used to show the relationships

between the pairs of questions being tested. A series of

asterisks (*) and Xs will be used to represent the results

o-f the test. An asterisk indicates a P-Value greater than

the .05 level of significance, along with a conclusion that

both probability distributions are identical. An X in-

dicates a P-Value less than the .05 level of significance

and follows with a conclusion that the null hypothesis can

4-45

be rejected. With an X result, the resulting conclusion is

that the two probability distributions are different. To

provide proof that outliers do exist with respect to the

questions, the Xs are expected to be concentrated among the

possible outlier(s). If no outliers exist, the Xs should be

mixed uniformly throughout the matrix.

The results of the Wilcoxon Signed Rank test show

questions 4 and 6 have an abnormally large number of dif-

ferences in their probability distributions as compared to

the others. Question 4 can be explained because 12 of the

1-3 volunteers marked the same response to the question (See

Question 4, Survey 1, This Chapter). No confounds were

id entified to justify removal'of this question from the data

-set. Question 6 is singled out because its probability

distribution is also significantly different than those of

the other questions. Six of the 13 respondents responded

with a *strongly disagree* to the question. As noted in the

non-statistical analysis section of this chapter, seven of

the 13 respondents provided comments reflecting dissatis-

faction with the format of the WRSK listing. The results of

the Wilcoxon Si-gned Rank test, coupled with the comments

made by thG respondents provide enough evidence to conclude

a confound exists that is effecting the results of the data

set. That is, the unsatisfactory format of the WRSK listing

is reflected in the responses made by the respondents.

4-46

TABLE 6-

WILCOXON SIGNED RANK TEST

QUESTIONS

Evaluation Survey Questions

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

* X X * * 1

X X X X x X 4

Total * 26 XX 7

Total X 19 a

45. 9.

10

Frequency d-istribution of Xfor each Question

1 2 3 8 9 10

Total2Xs per 2 2Que.9t.

Consequently, an analysis of the data to determine the

usefulness of the database model is Qzeriously tainted by the

4-47

responses made for question 6. Therefore, responses to

question 6 will he remo,ed f rom the data set.

With question 6 removed from the data set, a second Box

and Whiskers plot was performed on the data. Figure 4 shows

that two possible and one probable outlier exists with

respect to the probability distributions of the respondents.

+ J) * 0

--------------------------------- +----------------+----------------+------------

1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.7 :3.0

+ The middle (MEDIAN) for the data set.

[] Encloses the middle half of the data.

* Represent approximately 95% confidence intervals aboutthe medians.

-- Whiskers" that indicate typical data values.

* Indicates POSSIBLE outliers.

O PROBABLE outlier.

Figure 4. Box and Whisker Plot of Data SetWith Question Six Removed

Analysis should be performed on any outliers that lie

beyond the fences to determine if they belong to a different

population as compared v t te ample wh tch was drawn

4-48

A Wilcoxon Signed Rank test can now be performed on the data

to determine if the possible outliers identified can be

isolated.

Table 7 shows the results of the test for each pair of

respondents. The same test hypothesis used during the

previous Wilcoxon Signed Rank test wil be used here as

well. To restate again, the test null hypothesis for each

pair of respondents is that both probability distributions

are identical. The test was conducted at the .05 level of

significance. Again, a matrix is used to show the relation-

ships between the pairs of questions being tested. A series

of asterisks (*) and Xs will also be used to represent the

results of the test. An asterisk and X have the same mean-

ing as described earlier in this section. To provide proof

that outliers do exist with respect to the respondents, the

Xs should be concentrated among the possible outlier(s). if

no outliers exist, the Xs should be mixed uniformly through-

out the matrix.

As can be seen from the frequency distribution in Table

7, respondents C and M have the largest concentration of

non-identical probability distributions. Though a third

outlier was identified with the Box and Whisker plot, the

results of the Wilcoxon Signed Rank test failed to support

that a third outlier exists. The results of the Wilcoxon

4-49

TABLE 7

WILCOXON SIGNED RANK TEST

RESPONDENTS

A B C D E F G H I J K L M

T l K K * * * * K K K * A

iX * * K * * * * * * B

K X X X X K X X * C

* * * ,K * K * K * D

* * * * * * * * E

K" K * K * * k F

* * K * * X G

Total * -- 65

Total K = 13K X K

78x L

M

Frequency distribution of X

for Respondents

A B C D E F G H I J K L IM-

X G

Total 02

Xs per 00 0 1 22 1Resp.

4-50

Signed Rank test, however, provides enough evidence to

categorize respondents C and M as outliers to the data set.

Consequently, the responses from respondent C and respondent

M will be removed from the data set.

It must be noted at this point that a double edge sword

exists with the collected data. On the one hand, a reduc-

tion in number of respondents, from an already small sample

size, weakens the strength of the statistical results. Or,

the other hand, allowing confounds to exist in the data set

prevents a clear understanding of the data. Confounds cloud

the water, so to speak, preventing the observance of true

cause and effect relationships. This researcher believes it

more important to have a small amount of data, clear of

confounding effects, than to have a larger amount of data

with confounds that adversely influence the relationships of

the independent and dependent variable being tested.

Analyzing Modified Data.

With suspected confounds removed from the data set,

evaluation of the modified data set can now be accomplished.

As stated in the Evaluation Survey Development section of

this chapter, the intent is to determine whether, in the

opinion of the volunteers, the database model is a useful

tool in providing realistic logistical information to

recponCe cell Cme ..-..

4-51

Descriptive statistics and the Friedman non-parametric

two-way ANOVA procedure were used on the data set to eval-

uate the opinion of the volunteers. Descriptive statistics jfor the data set are shown in Table 8.

TABLE 8

DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS

MODIFIED EVALUATION SURVEY i DATA 4

Respondents Sample Size Mean Standard Deviation

A 9 1.89 O.782

B 9 1.67 0.707

D 9 1.89 0.601

E 9 2.78 1.302

F 9 1.78 0.667

G 9 1.56 0.527

H 9 1.67 0.500

I 9 1.56 1.014

J 9 1.56 1.014

K 9 1.56 1.014

L 9 1.89 1.054 ,1Average Mean 1.80

As Table 8 shows, the average mean for all respondents

is 1.80. The queslion Lhal must now be answered is whether

1.80 is representative for all respondents.

4-52

An analysis of variance (ANOVA) procedure can be used

to determine if the average mean is representative for all

respondents. Many ANOVA procedures exist. In choosing

which procedure to use, i.e. parametric, non-parametric,

one-way or two-way, assumptions for each procedure had to be

analyzed against the data. Parametric ANOVA procedures have

restrictive data assumptions that, in this case, were not

met. Parametric ANOVA procedures require the response var-

iance be statistically equal. The standard deviations for

each of the respondents are not statistically equal and

thereby prevent the use of parametric ANOVA procedures. On

the other hand, non-panametric procedures are far less

restrictive on required data assumptions. Furthermore,

their strength lies in their general applicability (McClave

and Benson 1988:991). The two non-parametric procedures

considered for use were the Kruskal-Wallis one-way ANOVA and

the Friedman two-way ANOVA. The Friedman two-way ANOVA was

chosen over the one-way ANOVA procedure because it allows

the blocking of variables. The advantage here is that the

blocking of variables reduces the "Within' variability for

the denominator in the F statistic calculation. Consequent-

ly, a larger F statistic results which amplifies the dif-

ferences in the probability distributions during the test.

The results of the Friedman test are shown in Table 9. The

procedure tests the null hypothesis that no difference

4-53

exists in the probability distribution for each of the

respondents at the .05 level of significance.

TABLE 9

ANALYSIS OF MODIFIED DATA USING FRIEDMAN'S TEST

TestStatistic P-Value

Respondents 12.76 .2372

The results of the test show that the null hypothesis

cannot be rejected at the .05 level of significance. Mean-

ing, enough statistical evidence does not exist to dispute

the hypothesis that the probability distributions for each

respondent are identical.

Evaluation Survey 2 Data Analysis.

The second evaluation survey was given to personnel who

have had previous CPX experience as a response cell member.

The purpose of this survey was to provide a means of measur-

ing the degree of logistic realism provided by the database

model over other methods in use today. To provide meaning-

ful statistical comparisons, participants must satisfy two

conditions, First, tbey must have had previous experience

as a response cell member during a CPX at some time in their

4-54

career. Second, they should be somewhat familiar with the

KC-135 aircraft to include its capabilities and its logis-

tical support requirements. Of the thirteen participants,

only two individuals have had previous CPX experience, and

neither of them had any experience with the KC-135 aircraft.

Even though the two individuals completed Evaluation Survey

2, their responses provided no information that could be

useful for meaningful statistical analysis and was there-

fore not used.

Summary

Chapter IV provided a detailed discussion of the

analysis, findings, and results of this thesis ef'fort. The

Chapter focused on procedures used to collect source data

for the database model, procedures for development of the

database model, procedures for the testing of the database

model, and procedures used to analyze the results. Chapter

V will now focus on conclusions that can be drawn from this

thesis effort, along with recommendations to further the

advancement of this effort.

4-55

V. Conclusions and Recommendations

Overview

The intention of this thesis effort is to provide an

alternative method for determining and evaluating critical

logistical requirements to support mission taskings during

Command Post Exercises (CPXs). Furthermore, it is intended

to make exercizs play at the response cell level more real-

istic so that the environment of war in CPXs is more closely

replicated and our forces and command authorities are better

prepared to carry out their duties more effectively.

Through this research, a historical aircraft mainten-

ance database model has been used to improve exercise real-

ism. Historical database models are based on the premise

that realistic data collected from actual war-like missions

can be placed in a database for use by response cell members

to provide simulated, yet realistic, logistical requirements

during Command Post Exercises. Historical database models

realistically task logistic needs against operational re-

quirements to meet mission taskings. Consequently, mean-

ingful constraints are imposed that force exercise players

to think through problems that would more realistically

exist under war-like conditions.

Sound strategic and tactical decisions cannot be made

without realistic input on logistical support capabilities.

The database model takes a significant step toward providing

5-1

decision makers a clearer picture of logistical capabilities

by incorporating war-like logistical data into exercise play

at the response cell level.

This chapter contains the concluding remarks and recom-

mendations from the foregoing presentation. A discussion on

meeting the research objectives, to include conclusions,

will be presented first, followed by recommendations for

handling the research documents and recommendations for

further research efforts. The chapter will close with

summary remarks.

Primary Findings

The primary purpose of this thesis effort was to pro-

vide HQ SAC/LGL a historical database model that would im-

prove realism in CPXs for use with the KC-135A/E/R aircraft.

To accomplish this objective, several investigative ques-

tions were used to guide the research effort (See Ch 1, Pg

5-6).

The first research question examines the issue of war-

like exercise or deployment data versus routine peacetime

training data. Of critical importance to the historical

database model is the use of war-like data in the database

development. Considerable research was conducted through

literature searches and informal telephone interviews to

determine if ETTF missions accurately depicted aircraft

logistics requirements during war. Though no hard and

5-2

conclusive research evidence was found to support the pre-

mise that ETTF data depicts aircraft logistics requirements

more realistically than does other routine peacetime flying

data, it is reasonable to expect that the training missions

flown during ETTF deployments realistically replicate ex-

pected wartime mission taskings. With this supposition, it

would logically follow that aircraft logistics requirements

from ETTF missions would provide more realism than would

routine peacetime flying data.

The next four investigative questions were examined

during a mock exercise that was designed to test the data-

base model. Constructs employed in Evaluation Survey 1 (See

Appenaix E) were designed to answer the investigative ques-

tions concerning whether the database model was realistic,

whether the database model was easy to use, and whether the

database model provided the needed information necessary for

response cell members to carry out their duties effectively.

The mock exercise also demonstrated the capability of the

database model to be used in compressed exercise schedules.

The database model's capability, to be used during compress-

ed exercise schedules, offer a high degree of flexibility

where time considerations become a constraint to the exer-

cise.

5-3

Conclusions

Due to the limitations imposed by the mock exercise

testing procedure, only superficial conclusions can be made

concerning the data collected from Evaluation Survey 1.

The degree of confidence in the conclusions are par-

tia-lly based on the degree to which confounds effecting the

data are minimized. The degree to which confounds exist in

an experiment has an inverse effect on the degree of con-

fidence placed on the test results. A higher degree of

confidence is accepted as the effects of confounds on the

experiment are recognized and reduced. The limitations of

conducting a mock exercise to test the database model rather

than using a CPX (the preferred method) are realized by an

increased effect of confounds on the experiment results.

Consequently, less confidence is placed on the final analy-

sis of the data. Therefore, "only limited generalized con-

clusions can be made about the database model.

Final analysis of the data show that the probability

distributions for each respondent are statistically iden-

tical with an average mean of 1.80 (See Ch 4, Table 8).

Based on- the Likert scale, as used in Evaluation Survey 1,

the average mean score suggests the respondents *Tend To

Agree' the database model was useful toward providing real-

istic logistical information to response cell members.

Therefore, the researcher concludes that the database model

5-4

provides response cell members with a useful tool to obtain

realistic logistical information they would need to carry

out their duties effectively.

A conclusion cannot be made, however, regarding whether

the database model improves loistical realism over existing

mathematical models currently in use. To make such a con-

clusion would require a comparative analysis of personnel

with prior experience using both mathematical models and

historical database models. Unfortunately, personnel were

not available during the mock exercise that possessed the

-necessary CPX experience and aircraft experience to perform

any meaningful statistical analysis.

Recommendations

Handling Research Documents.

It is recommended that SAC/LGL maintain and reproduce

as necessary the KC-135A/E/R Aircraft Maintenance Logistics

Database, Information Guide, Practice Database, and Training

Slides.

Future Research.

Both with the B-52G database model and with this data-

base model, statistical evidence has not been gathered in

sufficient quantity to prove or disprove the hypothesis that

historical databasing improves realism in CPXs over other

existing methods. A next step in the research is to test

5-5

these models extensively at the CPX level. Information

gathered through this research effort and previous research

by Capt Hall (See Hall, 1989) provide a foundation of solid

pre-test data. Testing the models using a Pre-test/Post-

test experimental design would provide useful statistical

information to determine if the models support the hypo-

thesis of improved logistics realism during CPXs. There-

fore, it is recommended that SAC/LGL solicit further re-

search to validate the hypothesis that historical databas.-

ing (to include both the B-52G and the KC-135A/E/R database

models) improves realism over mathematical models currently

in use today. This type of research could be accomplished

either through the Air Force Institute of Technology'.3

School of Systems and Logistics Graduate Program, or through

the Air Force Logistics Management Center (AFLMC) at Gunter

AFB, Alabama.

it is also recommended that the Historical Database

Model be expanded to include other aircraft in the Air Force

inventory. Tactical aircraft, to include the F-15 and

F-16, would be ideal candidates for such a database model.

Tactical aircraft should have readily available source data

to develop the database model. Military Exercises such as

Red Flag, Coronet Warrior, or even routine deployments can

provide the logistical data necessary to develop the his-

torical database model.

5-6

Summary

The defense forces of this nation operate in an ever

changing and dynamic environment. The dramatic changes in

world events since 1989 have caused considerable debate over

the needed strength of our nation's defense forces. A

perceived decreasing threat from WARSAW Pact countries have

caused this nation to reconsider its threats and to adjust

its military strength accordingly. Furthermore, the Bush

Administration and the American public expect the Defense

Department to work more effectively with their limited

resources. The defense forces of this nation should work

smarter toward maximizing military effectiveness with the

resources they are provided.

Budget.reductions resulting from this changing environ-

ment will surely lead to reductions in our force capabil-

ities. Among others, a most notable reduced force capabil-

ity will result from a reduction in manpower authorizations.

As our manning authorizations are reduced, the most ex-

perienced and educated of our forces leave the military, via

early retirement opportunities or through 'Early Out*

programs. Voids left by these departures are generally

filled with inexperienced and unseasoned personnel.

The challenge to all Air Force leaders is to minimize

the effects of force reductions on military readiness

5-7

through proactive employment of tools such as the Historical

Database Model concept. The use of Historical Databasing

during Command Post Exercises provide the needed, improved,

and realistic training for military leaders that allow force

readine.s to be maintained effectively. Furthermore, an

added benefit of the Historical Database Modeling concept is

that it is relatively inexpensive to develop. As evidenced

by both this thesis effort and the B-52G thesis effort, only

one person, through the sponsorship of SAC/LGL, was needed

to develop the historical database model and its associated

documentation. The actual time needed to develop such a

model can be dramatically reduced over the year used to

develop this'thesis effort. This could be accomplished by

employing a person full time and using a methodology similar

to the one employed by this researcher or by the methodology

used by Capt Hall during his research effort (See Hall,

1989:Ch 3, 1).

Another benefit of historical databasing is its sim-

plicity. The model is relatively easy to build if avail-

able data exists. Source data needed for this type of model

can be gathered through Flag Exercises or aircraft deploy-

ments so long as the flying missions closely replicate

expected wartime taskings. Because war-like data is readily

available for many aircraft types, the model has broad

application over a wide variety of CPX scenarios. The model

5-8

can be applied to CPXs of varying types and degrees and does

not require any specialized training or equipment beyond

minimal familiarization training. Additionally, the model

is based on accepted maintenance practices used in one form

or another by most major commands throughout the Air Force.

Another important benefit of the model is that it is

used at the lowest level of a CPX. At the response cell

level, both logistic requirements and operational needs must

merge to effectively accomplish mission taskings. Con-

sequently, by use of the model, a clearer picture of a units

capabilities, limitations, weaknesses, and strengths emerge

and ripple through the exercise command and support infra-

structures. The resulting benefit is improved realism at

all levels. Logisticians and operators work jointly to

solve constraining problems while decision makers at all

levels are provided alternatives based on a more realistic

foundation of logistical support. Recommendations and

decisions can now be based on realistic input rather than

generated and often inaccurate data.

Improved realism in CPXs does not have to bn a result

of sophisticated and complex systems. Simplistic, yet

effective tools are available. The historical database

modeling concept is one such tool whose time has come.

5-9

Appendix A: KC-135A/E/R Aircraft Maintenance Logistics Database

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Appendix B: Information Guide

Table of Contents

Page

Introduction...................... -

Overview.........................B-3

I. The Database Format................B-4

II. Aircraft Inspections...............B-6

Phase Inspection................B-6

Hourly Post-flight (HPO) Inspection ... B-9

III. Aircraft Parts..................B-10

IV. Initial Forms Set-up..............B-12

V. At STARTEX ..................... B-15

VI. During the Exercise...............B-19

Special Database Events..........B-19

Late Takeoffs..............B-19Air Aborts..............B-19

Attrition....................B-19Additional/Replacement!

Transit Aircraft...........B-19Flow of Events...............B-19Playing Multiple Locations .......... B-20

VII. At ENDEX....................B-21

B-1

List of Figures1

Figure Page

B-.Phase Inpetio In a Nutshll. .......... B-7

B-2. HPO Inspection In a Nutshell ... ........... B-9

B-3. Timeline Documentation and Special Symbols . . . B-13

B-4. Worksheet Plotting In a Nutshell ......... B-1-8

List of Tablesi

Table Page

B -i. Contingency Phase Inspection Times. ......... B-8

B-2. Aircraft Phase and HPO Times at STARTEX .. .... B-14

B-2

KC-135/A/E/R AIRCRAFT MAINTENANCE LOGISTICS DATABASEINFORMATION GUIDE (Hall, 1989:Ap B)

Introduction

1. The XC-135A/E/R Aircraft Maintenance Database and itsassociated worksheets and instructions were developed tomake response cell play more realistic during command postexercises. The database places aircraft availability atrealistic levels without impeding other objectives at higherechelons of exercise play. Additionally, realistic demands

4W for aircraft parts are generated. The database informationcan be viewed as the information a battle staff would nor-mally receive from the aircraft readiness center.

2. Information for the database was derived from data gath-ered during routine European tanker task force flying mis-sions. Therefore, the data is based upon actual aircraftmaintenance in support of flying operations-. The databasecan be expected to produce results consistent with realisticoccurrences. However, the results during your particularexercise will be dependent upon the taskings you receive.

3. The information and guidance on the following pages isto help you use the database as well as determine otherfactors which have a direct bearing on your aircraft avail-ability and parts requirements.

4. Remember that you will face many problems and challengesin this exercise. In most cases, they are the same problemsand challenges that your unit could expect to face in anactual deployment. Work as diplomatically as possible withyour host unit to resolve problems. The database shouldhelp you keep your thoughts focused along these lines. Makesure you share the things you learn with your home unit sothey can be better prepared for deployment.

Overview

This information guide will help you:

1. Understand the structure and use of the database.

2. Initially set up your aircraft worksheets.

3. Document the CPX MX Worksheets 1 and 2.

4. Determine aircraft downtime and availability.

5. Determine parts required and their availabilityin the war readiness spares kit (WRSX).

B-3

I. The Database Format

The columns of the database are as follows:

Maintenance Event Control Number - The control numberis used to identify a 'maintenance event*for a particular aircraft on the CPX MXWorksheets 1 and 2. A maintenance eventincludes all the lines in the databaseassociated with a specific maintenanceevent control number. It also provides ameans of record keeping for later anal-ysis.

Acft T.N. - The aircraft tail number to which the jmaintenance event is assigned is enteredin this block (by the user).

Lndg Code - Identifies the maintenance condition of anaircraft returning from a mission.

Code 1: Aircraft/system(s) fully oper-ational. Aircraft is landing with noknown discrepancies which would adverselyaffect performance of the aircraft/sys-tem(s).

Code 2: Aircraft/system(s) has/have minordiscrepancies which may affect operatingperformance but will generally not pre-clude the aircraft from flying another1mission prior to repair.

Code 3: Aircraft/system(s) has/have dis-crepancies which render the aircraft and/-or system(s) unusable. Generally, air- dcraft are not flown until Code 3 discrep-ancies are repaired.

Fix Time The time needed to repair a discrepancylisted in the database. The times listeddo not include normal refuel, phase, HPO,preflight/thruflight/postflight inspec-tion. (Time in hours to the nearest te-nth) The overall fix time is identified byan asterisk in the Lndg Code column whenan aircraft has Code 3 discrepancies.

NSN - The national stock number (NSN) of theneeded repair parts,

B-4

Noun - The nomenclature of the needed repairpart.

WTJC - The work unit code (WUC) associated withthe major repair part or system.

Qty - Quantity of repair part(s) if needed.

In WRSK - For the user to identify if the repairpart is availabl'e in the WRSK (Yes/No).

MESL For the user to identify whether theaffected system is on the minimum essen-tial systems list (MESL) if the part isnot on-hand (Yes/No).

Msg DTG - For the user to write the date-time-groupof the message requesting a part notavailable in the WRSK.

Remarks To provide a short, general description ofthe discrepancy associated with a main-tenance event.

B-5

II. Aircraft Inspections

1. Phase Inspection. Aircraft maintenance and schedulingis based, in part, on flying time and phase hours. Main-tenance is a cyclic process and a phase inspection startsthe cycle. A phase inspection is accomplished every 200flying hours. In the 'real world' environment, an aircraftwhich has flown a 5-hour mission immediately following aphase is counted as having 195 hours remaining until thenext phase. However, in the interest of *simplicity* forthis exercise, we will accumulate flying/phase hours (i.e. 0+ 5 = 5, 5 + 5 = 10, etc).

a. When 200 hours have been accumulated on an aircraft,you remove the aircraft from the flying schedule (line-up)and perform a contingency phase inspection. Contingencyphase inspections are much different from those accomplishedduring peacetime. The contingency phase is an abbreviatedphase inspection to inspect critical items crucial to combatmission effectiveness. The amount of time required to per-form each phase inspection is determined by using Table B-1. Because phase inspection teams improve their proficiencywith each successive contingency phase inspection, eachphase takes less time to perform than the last until 31hours is reached.

(1) You also have a 10 percent (20 hour) leeway onwhen to accomplish the phase which helps streamline thescheduling process. In other words, depending on missionrequirements, you can accomplish the phase inspection anytime between the 180 and 220-hour point. However, youshould attempt to accomplish the phase as close to the200-hour point as possible.

(2) To further explain, an aircraft could be taskedto fly a 8-hour mission if it had 22C.0 or less hours accum-ulated since last phase. However, it would not be goodscheduling practice to do so. Furthermore, if an aircraftlands with 220.1 hours accumulated since last phase, it is'GROUNDED* until the phase has been completed.

b. To improve your readiness and aircraft availability,ensure you stagger the phase hours of your aircraft. The-phase inspection schedule can have dramatic effects on youraircraft availability and readiness, both good and bad. Notwo aircraft should be allowed to come due or be undergoingphase inspection at the same time, if at all possible.Generally speaking, you will not have the maintenance cap-ability to phase more than one aircraft at a time. Plan

B-6

which aircraft you will fly to keep your overall phaseschedule balanced.

c. Upon completion of a phase inspection, you must"reset the clock.' This means the aircraft now has 0.0phase hours accumulated. Remember to update the CPX MXworksheet.

d. Other maintenance actions can and should be accom-plished concurrently with the phase inspection. However,some fix times from the database may exceed the phase time.When this occurs, use the longer database fix time. Ineither case, a 4-hour preflight/thruflight must be added to

=whichever time is longer to account for refueling, servic-ing, ground crew and air crew preflight times.

e. If an aircraft flush (emergency evacuation) is im-minent, an aircraft can be considered flyable if it has beenundergoing phase inspection for less than 2 hours. Further-more, an aircraft overdue phase inspection can be launchedin an emergency, assuming it is in flyable condition.

PHASE INSPECTION IN A NUTSHELL

Due every 200 +/- 20 (180 to 220)

flying hours (since last phase).

Use Table B-i to determine the timerequired to perform the phaseinspection.

Use the longer of either the 31-hourphase time or the database fix timeand then add the 4-hour preflight/thruflight.

- Reset the aircraft's phase hours to0.0 hours (accumulated).

- Aircraft is flushable if less thanhours from the phase start time.

Figure B-1. Phase Inspection In a Nutshell

B-7

f. Determine the time required to perform a con-tingency phase inspection from Table B-i. The table re-flects that the phase team becomes more efficient each timethey perform the inspection, For example, the first air-craft which comes due for a phase inspection will take thephase inspection team 72 hours to complete. However, whenthe second aircraft comes due for a phase inspection, itwill take the team only 59 hours to perform, and so on. Thesixth phase inspection and all others will take the team 31hours to perform.

TABLE B-i

CONTINGENCY PHASE INSPECTION TIMES

Phases performed by Time Required

the phase team to Perform

1st 72.0 hours

2nd 59.0 hours

3rd 48.0 hours

4th 39.0 hours

5th 33.0 hours

6th and all other phaseinspections performed 31.0 hours

I

B1-8

2. Hourly Post-flight (HPO) Inspection. The HPO is anotherinspection that affects flying hour and maintenance schedul-ing.

a. The HPO is accomplished every 50 hours. However, noHPO is required at the 200-hour point because it is accomp-lished as a part of the phase inspection. A 10 percent (5hour) leeway is also provided for this inspection providinga 45 to 55 hour window (since last inspection) in which toaccomplish the inspection. In other words, the inspectioncan be performed after the aircraft has accrued 45 flyinghours, but the aircraft cannot be launched with more than 55flying hours since last HPO or phase until the inspectionhas been completed. This inspection requires 2 hours tocomplete.

b. The database fix time and the 4-hour preflight/thru-flight time is added to the 2-hour" HPO.

HPO INSPECTION IN A NUTSHELL

- Due every 50 +/- 5 (45 to 55) flying

hours (since last HPO).

- Takes 2 hours to complete.

-The database fix time and the 4-hour

preflight/thruflight times are addedto the 2-hour HPO.

Reset HPO hours to 0.0 when:

-- An HPO inspection is completed.

A phase inspection is completed(HPO is integral part of phase).

Figure B-2. HPO Inspection In a Nutshell

B-9

III. Aircraft Parts

1. Many assumptions have been made in the area of aircraftparts. Our objective is to drive demands for the criticalparts reflected in the database. So that the database iskept to a manageable size, many less critical parts are notshown. The deployed unit has an extensive amount of benchstock with them.

2. Part(s) requirements are identified in the database bynational stock number (NSN) , noun (nomenclature), work unitcode (WUC) and the quantity required. A WRSK (CSMS assetmaster file) listing identifies authorizations by stocknumber and WUC, and indicates the quantity authorized andquantity on-hand.

3. When a part or parts are ident'ified in the database fora maintenance event (Code 2 or 3), the current WRSK listingfor the deploying unit should be checked.

a. If the part is available in the WRSK, simply writeyes* in the "In WRSK" column of-the database and considerthe aircraft repaired within the specified database fixtime.

b. If the part is not available in the WRSK, the ap-propriate Logistics Readiness Center (LRC) should be noti-fied of the exercise part requirement via message. The NSN,noun, WUC and quantity are shown in the database. Post themessage Date-Time-Group (DTG) in the "Msg DTG" column.

(1) Non-Essential System. If the system is notlisted in the Minimum Essential Systems List (MESL, AFR 65-110/SAC Sup 1), or the system is Code 2, or there is a highprobability the aircraft could complete its mission withoutthe replacement part, fly the aircraft "as is". Do notcannibalize if nothing would be gained by doing so. Yourgoal is to maximize aircraft availability. See paragraph 5for more discussion of the MESL.

(2) Essential System. If the system is essen-tial, then cannibalization is probably in order. Refer to

paragraph 5 for help in determining whether a system isessential in the conventional or SfOP role. Remember toconsolidate cannibalizations to as few aircraft as possible.If the option to cannibalize is selected, the aircraftreceiving the part can be considered flyable at the end ofits database fix time.

(3) Make sure cannibalization actions are shownon the CPX MX Worksheets and the database. This way you

B-10

will know exactly what has been cannibalized from an air-craft and can better track the MICAP condition. A MICAPcondition exists when the non-availability of a part rendersan aircraft cr system out of commission for its intendedpurpose.

(4) Consider the *donor* aircraft flyable whennotified by the LRC that the MICAP is satisfied and thedatabase fix time has elapsed. If the LRC fails to notifyyou of the delivery date for a MICAP part, consider thedelivery date of the part to be 7 days from date and timethe aircraft was declared MICAP.

4. Update the quantities on the WRSK listing and keep themcurrent. When parts are used out of the WRSK, reduce theon-hand quantity by the number taken (in pencil). Likewise,when items are received, show the appropriate quantityincreases.

5. The MESL excerpt from AFR 65-110/SAC Sup 1, AttachmentI is included in your response cell kit to help you deter-mine whether or not an aircraft must have a particularsystem operational to fly an air refueling mission. Thisdetermination is necessary because there are many Code 3discrepancies which may, in fact, be flyable.

a. When a question arises about whether an aircraftcan be flown without replacing a part which is zero balancein the WRSK:

(1). Get the first two digits of the WUC of thepart identified in the database. These two digits corres-pond with the digits in the "WUC" column in the MESL list-ing.

(2). Next, follow the row across the page to the'Conventional* column or "SIOP" column. An "X" in theappropriate column indicates that the system needs to beoperational to fly the conventional or SIOP mission. When anumber is listed in parentheses, go to the footnote withthat number. The footnote will tell you what the systemmust be capable of in order to be considered flyable.

b. It is important that operations and logisticspersonnel discuss system requirements when there is anyquestion about the flyability of an aircraft for discrepan-cies where a replacement part is not available. Many work-arounds must be used in a time of conflict. Consider thefeasibility of various alternatives to the problems. Youmay find, however, that cannibalization may be the onlyviable option.

B-11

IV. Initial Forms Set-up

1. All entries should be made in pencil so changes can bemade quickly and easily.

2. Figure B-3 shows the preferred charting symbols andsample documentation for CPX MX Worksheets 1 and 2.

3. CPX MX Worksheets I and 2 are almost identical. CPX MXWorkshteet 2 is simply an extension of CPX MX Worksheet 1without the STARTEX (Start Exercise) data section.

4. CPX MX Worksheet 1 - STARTEX Data Section:

a. From the aircraft listing provided in your re-sponse cell bag, enter the aircraft tail numbers in the"Acft T.N." column and each aircraft's hours in the *AcftHrs" column.

b. Determine and enter each aircraft's STARTEX phaseand HPO hours from Table B-2 as follows:

(1) Go horizontally across the top of Table B-2to the column which matches the number of primary aircraftassigned (PAA) for your location. Then proceed down thd'column transcribing the phase and HPO hours for each air-

craft to the STAREX data section of the CPX MX Worksheet 1.The numbers were selected at random from uniform distri-butions to establish a standardized starting basis forexercise play.

(2) Improve your overall readiness by performingphase inspections or HPOs, as appropriate, at STARTEX onaircraft which are above the lower hour limits for theinspections to be performed (if your taskings will allow).

5. CPX MX Worksheets I and 2 - Timeline Section:

a. Post the date at the top of the worksheet.

b. Each number running across the top represents anhour on the 24 hour clock.

c. Document activity in this section using the sym-bols and example shown in Figure B-3. The best procedure isto tape these forms together to create a continuous horizon-tally-running scroll with the date at the top of each form.

B-12

-CH H OKSb4EU I-

STARTIM Oat.a Oat.. 6 p RI~tV MI1NTOWC AND 0 WLMULTY TIMELINK

Rt T.N. Ret MrsPhae W HPO W 0 1 2 2 4 5 6 7 0 9 10 It 12 12 14 13 Is 17 19 19 Z(

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KEY TO TIMELINE DOCUMENTATION

(Sched T.0.) (ARCT) (Fuel Load) (Phase Hours) (Type Maintenance)

A4(Schad Lndg) (Sortie Times) (HPO Hours) -(Maint-Event Control Number)

KEY SYMBOLS TIMELINE LENGEND

A Aicrat LanchSched T.O. - Scheduled Takeoff Time*Aircraft Landing Sched Lndg - Scheduled Landing Time

V Aicrat aailbleARCT - Air Refueling Control Timefor tasking Fuel Load - Fuel Load Required for Mission

* Aircraft In NMC/ Sortie Time - Duration of Sortie In HoursCan Sttus Phase Hrs - Phase Inspection Hrs Accum.D -Aircraft Attrited HPO Hrs - Hourly Postf light Hrs Accum.(Air oss) Type Maint - Type of Maint. Being PerformedD -Aircraft Attritsd Maint Event Control Number - (From Database)

(Ground Lose)PF/TF - Pref light/Thruf light

Figure B-3. Timeline Documentation and Special Symbols

B-13

0 O 0 .40 M' M'U 0 T V N

W), VN f)T ON N M' Q% 0 TO1 00M'

cc ,i N N N 21U, 0 W U~0'U 00 NVV 0 .4

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00 N VN NT x

a.in a - - - -- - - - - -

In 1 N N

4J 4 N M' V inI W NWO 0' 0. N 0' V ID

B-14

V. At STARTEX

1. During the exercise, please make comments directly onthe database, worksheets and information guides where thecomments apply. As you find problems or have suggestionsfor improving these documents, please write them down. Thisis probably the best and easiest way for us to know how tomake genuine improvements to the system.

2. Upon initiation of flying activity (STARTEX), the fol-lowing procedures will be used:

a. Plotting Sorties. When mission taskings are re-ceived and mission planning is complete, plot the sorties onthe CPX MX Worksheets 1 and/or 2 using the symbols andcharting technique shown in Figure B-3. The tanker planierwill provide you with the scheduled takeoff and landingtimes, air refueling control time (ARCT) , and sortie dura-tion. You will be concerned with four types of times whenplotting the aircraft timelines: 1) sortie time, 2) phaseand/or HPO times when applicable, 3) fix time, and lastly 4)preflight/thruflight times. The 4-hour preflight/thru-flight is used to account not only preflight/thruflights/postflights, but also refueling, and servicing.

(1) Determine which aircraft you will fly. Then,on the CPX MX Worksheet 1, draw an up-triangle (takeoff) atthe takeoff time and a down-triangle (landing) at the land-ing time of each aircraf't ybu select to fly. Connect thetriangles with a straight-line (timeline). Above and belowthe timeline post the scheduled takeoff and landing times,ARCT, and sortie duration as shown in Figure B-3.

(2) Determine each aircraft's accumulated phaseand HPO hours by adding the sortie duration to the previoushours accumulated and enter the totals on the timeline asshown in Figure B-3.

b. Plotting Maintenance Events. Starting with thefirst aircraft to land:

(1) On the CPX MX Worksheet 1 or 2, if any in-spections (HPO or Phase) are due, extend the timeline fromthe landing symbol (down-triangle) for the proper number ofhours and end the line with a slash. Identify the type ofinspection above the line and reset the appropriate hours to0.0. Show phase hours above the line and HPO hours belowthe line.

B-15

(2) Next, go to the first unassigned maintenanceevent in the database. A maintenance event is defined asall the lines of the database associated with a specific"maintenance event control number". The maintenance eventis unassigned until an aircraft T.N. is posted in the "AcftT.N-. column in the database.

(3) Post the tail number of the landing aircraftin the Acft T.N. column on the database.

(4) From the database, we select the longest "FixTime" associated with a Code 3 discrepancy. This is easilyidentified by an asterisk in the "Lndg Code" column. Thehours in the fix time column following the aaterisk will bethe maintenance fix time for the whole aircraft. Extend thetimeline for the fix time hours and post the "maintenanceevent control number' below the timeline as shown in FigureB-3. If there are no Code 3 discrepancy's listed, then nofix time hours are plotted. This is because the aircraft is"mission capable" even with Code 2 discrepancies. However,the maintenance event is still assigned to that aircraft andparts are consumed.

(5) Finally, extend the timeline.to show the 4-hour preflight/thruflight time and label it "PF/TF". At theend of the timeline accounting for PF/TF, place a circlesymbol (aircraft available for tasking) as shown in FigureB-3.

(6) Repeat the above steps each time a missiontasking is received. When plotting timelines and you cometo 2400 hours on one CPX MX worksheet, continue the plottingat 0000 hours on the succeeding CPX MX worksheet. You willfind after a little practice these procedures go very quick-ly and smoothly.

(7) Once the plotting is complete, it is easy to "provide the response cell team chief with projected aircraftavailability for each tasking period. If there are noentries on the timeline to the right of a circle, the air-craft is available for tasking beginning with the periodfollowing the one in which the circle is located..

c. Next, the availability of any needed parts shownin the database are checked using the current home unit WRSKli sting. Procedures in the preceding "Aircraft PArt-,"section should be followed. Ensure the appropriate LRC isnotified via message of parts shortages. Post the messagedate-time-group (DTG) to the database in the column titled

B-16

"Msg DTG" and monitor status. If an aircraft is not missioncapable (NMC) because it, is in *Cann" status, draw the boxsymbol shown in Figure B-3 on the timeline at the time theaircraft goes into NMC/Cann status.

d. From time to time you will receive Master Scenarioof Events Listing (MSEL) inputs. Some of the inputs willaffect your aircraft operations. When inputs are based ontime, use the longer of either the MSEL input or the data-base fix time, when applicable. If a conflict arises aboutwhich procedures to follow, the MSEL inputs and taskingagency communications take precedence over the aircraftmaintenance database. Don't confuse MSEL with MESL. TheMESL is the Minimum Essential Systems List covered in Sec-tion III.

e. Database used up? If all maintenance events areused in the course of the exercise, simply start over againstarting at maintenance event control number I.

B-17

WORKSHEET PLOTTING IN A NUTSHELL

- Refer to Figure B-3 for sample.

- Plot launch and landing symbols at thescheduled takeoff and landing times.Connect with a straight-line (timeline),

- Post scheduled takeoff and landing times,ARCT, and duration above and below thetimeline.

- Post new phase and HPO times by addingsortie duration to previous times.

- Extend timeline for inspections, if due.

- Post the aircraft T.N. to the databasefor the first unassigned maintenanceevent in the database.

- On the CPX MX Worksheet, extend the time-line plot for the fix time hours to theright of the asterisk (in the Lndg Codecolumn) for that maintenance event.

- Post the maintenance event control numberbelow the timeline as shown in Figure B-3.

- Extend timeline plot for the 4-hourpreflight/thruflight. Post a circle atthe end of the timeline.

- Check availability of needed parts inWRSK and reflect the consumption.

- Repeat above steps for each air:,raft.

Figure B-4. Worksheet Plotting In a Nutshell

J

B-18

VI. During the Exercise

1. Special Database Events. To enhance exercise realism,late takeoffs, and air aborts are incorporated into thestructure of the database.

a. Late Takeoffs. Late takeoffs are identified in theremarks column in the Database. The amount of time theaircraft is delayed for takeoff is also identified. Fromthis information, operations personnel will be able todetermine if the aircraft can satisfactorily make its tim-ing. If it cannot, the mission is cancelled, unless earlierprovisions were made for a backup spare aircraft.

b. Air Aborts. Air aborts are also identified in theremarks column in the Database. The T/O + time of the abortis also identified. From this information, operationspersonnel can determine if the mission was effective. Todetermine the landing time of the aircraft, simply multiplythe T/O + time of the abort by 2 and add that time to theoriginal takeoff time. All other lines in the maintenanceevent apply upon landing.

2. Attrition. If you are informed that an aircraft hasbeen lost, mark the time and date the aircraft was lost onthe CPX MX Worksheet. Place the appropriate attritionsymbol at that point on the timeline and then line out theremainder of the row for that aircraft.

3. Additional/Replacement/Transit Aircraft. If addition-al, replacement, or transit aircraft are received by yourunit, handle them as follows.

a. Add the tail number of the additional and/or re-placement aircraft on the next open line on the CPX MXWorksheet 1 in the "Acft T.N." column.

b. Determine the phase and HPO hours for each of thenew aircraft by referring to Table B-2. Simply, start overat the top of the appropriate column and transcribe thehours to the CPX MX Worksheet.

c. Determine the landing condition from the next unas-signed maintenance event and plot the timeline for eachaircraft using the procedures in the preceding *AT STARTEX"section.

4. Flow of Events. As the exercise play progresses, keepthe following in the back of your mind. When flying actualcombat missions and logistically supporting those opera-

~B- 19

tions, few things ever go as planned. You can be sure youneed to expect the utexpected. Think and talk togetherabout the factors that influence a deployed unit's opera-tions which go beyond the scope of this database. Forexample, "How much time does it take to change fuel loads?What would ,?ou do if there was not enough time? What codethree discrepancies are actually flyable? Can a lost capa-bility on one aircraft be compensated by another aircraft ifflying in cell?* and so on. These are worthwhile considera-tions to think about in the course of the exercise.

5. Playing Multiple Locations. If you are responsible formore than one location during the exercise:

a. Keep a separate set of CPX MX Worksheets for eachlocation.

b. Use a separate database for each location.

c. Do not intermix events between locations.

J

J

B-20

VII. At ENDEX

No aircraft maintenance database can be totally free ofproblems and certainly this one is no exception. Therefore,we would like your inputs on how the database worked and howyou think it can be improved. Please take the time tocomplete the Database Evaluations. Areas for your commentsmay include the content and format of the Database, the CPXMX Worksheets, the procedures for using the database in theInformation Guide and any suggestions you may have toimprnl," aercise play from the logistics perspective. The

- are included in this package.

jr participation and cooperation.

B-21

Appendix C: Practice Database

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Appendix E: Evaluation Surveys

KC-135A/E/R AIRCRAFT MAINTENANCELOGISTICS DATABASE

EVALUATION SURVEY 1

1. The KC-135A/E/R Aircraft Maintenance Logistics Databaseand its associated worksheets and instructions were devel-oped to make response cell exercise play more realistic,place aircraft availability at more realistic levels, gener-ate realistic part demands and streamline logistics play.Therefore, i.t is very important to have your comments andcriticism on the new system and to know, in your opinion, ifit is reaching the goals as stated above. To do this effec-tively, we would like each of you who used the database, orwho would simply like to comment, to do two things.

2. First, during the mock exercise, please make commentsdirectly on the database, worksheets and the information.guides where comments apply. As you find problems or thingswhich could be improved write them down. This is probablythe best and easiest way to know how to make genuine im-provements to the new system.

3. Second, we would like your comments to the statementsand questions on the next two pages. (One evaluation fromeach person.) Please remember, it is your comments andopinions we are interested in, not what you think we wouldlike to hear. We will refer to the Aircraft MaintenanceLogistics Database as the "database"

4. You do not need to place your name anywhere on thisdatabase evaluation.

5. Using the scale shown at the top of the next two pages,please place the number which corresponds to your opinionabout each statement on the line preceding each statement.Please comment as to why you feel as you do in the spaceprovided. Your comments will be used to evaluate the effec-tiveness of the database and make whatever improvements maybe needed. Then, on the last page, respond to the last twocategorical questions.

E-I

Strongly Tend to Can't agree Tend to Stronglyagree agree or disagree disagree disagree

1 2 3 4 5

1. The database helped make exercise play in theresponse cell more realistic.

Why or how?

2. The database makes it easy to get theinformation I need to plot aircraft maintenanceactions, inspections, and turn times.

Why or how9

3. - - The database makes it easy to get the infor-mation I need to determine the availability ofeach aircraft.

Why or how?

4. The database makes it easy for me to determinewhat repair parts I need when an aircraft lands.

Why or how?

5. Having the discrepancy associated with a givenpart requirement helped make the demands morerealistic.

Why or how?

6. Having the noun and work unit code associatedwith the national stock number for a needed parthelped me locate the part in the WRSK listingand more easily identify the item in messagetraffic.

Why or how9

E-2

Strongly Tend to Can't agree Tend to Stronglyagree agree or disagree disagree disagree

2 3 4_

7. .....- Having the noun and work unit code associatedwith the national stock number for a needed parthelped me determine whether a part was essentialto fly a given mission and trackcannibalizations.

Why or how?

8. ------ The CPX MX Worksheets along with the newsymbols and charting technique streamlined thetracking of each aircraft's flying andmaintenance requirements.

Why or how?

9 ------ Working with the practice data base and othertraining materials adequately prepared me forusing the database during the exercise.

Why or how9

10. The information guide helped me understandmy job in the response cell and answered thequestions I had.

Why or how?

a. What information was not provided that wouldhave been helpful9

b. What information was provided that was notuseful or helpful?

E-3

Please answer the following quezsions by circling theletter that best applies to the appropriate response.

11. Have you, at any time in your military career,ever participated as a response cell member in aCommand Post Exercise (a military exercise inwhich the existence and movement of combat forcesare simulated)9

A. Yes.

B. No.

C. Not Sure.

(Please respond to Question 12 if you answered *YES* toQuestion number 11)

12. If your response to question 11 vas *YES,* whattype of model do you think was used during theCommand Post Exercise to simulate aircraft main-tenance and other logistic functions?

A. A historical airciaft maintenance databasemodel SIMILAR to the one used during the mockexercise.

B. Some other type of model (or data) NOT SIMI-LAR to the historical aircraft maintenancedatabase model used during the mock exercise.

C. Not sure whether the model used was a type ofhistorical aircraft maintenance databasemodel or some other type of model.

PLEASE USE THE REVERSE SIDEFOR YOUR ADDITIONAL COMMENTS AND OBSERVATTCNc

FF-4

EVALUATION SURVEY 2

COMPARISON BETWEEN LOGISTIC MODELS USED DURING CPX

1. This evaluation shall be completed only by those in-dividuals who have participated in a Command Post Exercise(CPX) as a response cell member sometime during their milit-ary career.

2. The response to each question should be based on a com-parison between the KC-135A/E/R Aircraft Maintenance Data-base Model used during the mock exercise, and aircraftmaintenance data used during your previous experience(s) asa response cell member during a Command Post Exercise (CPX).

IMPORTANT NOTE: Throughout the evaluation survey,the KC-135A/E/R Aircraft Maintenance Databasemodel shall be referred to as the "KC-135 DatabaseModel;" and the previous aircraft maintenance dataused during your CPX experience shall be referredto as the *Previous CPX Model."

3. You do not need to place your name anywhere on thisevaluation.

4. Using the scale shown at the top of the next two pages,please place the number which corresponds to your opinion onthe line preceding each statement. Then, comment as to whyyou feel as you do in the space provided.

E-5

Strongly Tend to Can't agree Tend to Stronglyagree agree or disagree disagree disagree

1 2 3 4 5

1.--The KC-135A/E/R database model is more realisticthan the previous CPX model.

Why or how?

2. Aircraft maintenance data from the previous CPXmodel could be used to plot aircraft maintenanceactions, inspections, and turn times more easilythan using the KC-135 database model.

Why or how?

3. Aircraft maintenance data from the previous CPXmodel could be used to determine aircraft avail-ability more easily than using the KC-135 data-base model.

Why or how?

4. Aircraft maintenance discrepancies using theprevious CPX model was more realistic than usingthe KC-135 database model.

Why or how?

5. ------ Supply data (WUC, NSN, NOUN) for a needed partwas easie - to find using the previous CPX modelthan it was using the KC-135 database model.

Why or how?

E-6

Strongly Tend to Can't agree Tend to Stronglyagree agree or disagree disagree disagree

1 2 3 4 5

6. The previous CPX model made it easier todeter-.ine if a part was essential to fly a givenmission than does the KC-135 database model.

Why or how?

7. Aircraft flying and maintenance requirements areeasier to track during exercise play using theprevious CPX model than using the KC-135 data-base model.

Why or how?

8. ------ I was better trained on the procedures necessaryto carry out my duties as a response cell memberusing the previous CPX model than I was usingthe KC-135 database model.

Why or how?

PLEASE USE THE REVERSE SIDEFOR YOUR ADDITIONAL COMMENTS AND OBSERVATIONS

E-7

Appendix F: Training Session Slides

KC-135A/E/R AIRCRAFT MAINTENANCE DATABASE

PURPOSE

The database and. associated materials aredesigned to help response cells maintain

aircraft availability at realistic levels,generate demands for parts, and provideimproved realism during command post

exercises involving the KC-135A/E/R aircraft

Figure F-i. KC-135A/E/R Aircraft MaintenanceDatabase Purpose

F-i

I

PHASE INSPECTION REQUIREMENTS

-Due every 200 /-20 (180 to 220) flying hours (sincelast phase).

-Takes 31 hours to complete.

-Use the longer of either the 31-hour phase time or thedatabase fix time and then add the 4-hour preflight/thruf light.

-Reset the aircraft's phase hours to 0.0 hours(accumulated).

-Aircraft i$ flushable if less than 2 or more than 10hours from phase start time.

Figur'e F-2. Phase Inspection Requirements

F- 2

HPO INSPECTION REQUIREMENTS

- Due every 50 +/- 5 (45 to 55) flying hours (since lastHPO or phase).

- Takes two hours to complete.

- The database fix time and the 4-hour preflight/thruflight times are added to the 2-hour HPO.

- Reset HPO hours to 0.0 when:

-- An HPO Inspection is completed.

-- A phase Inspection is completed(HPO Is an Integral part of phase).

Figure F-3. HPO Inspection Requirements

F-3

WORKSHEET PLOTTING REQUIREMENTS

- Refer to Figure B-3 In Information guide for sample.

- Plot launch and landing symbols at the scheduledtakeoff and landing times. Connect with a straightline(timeline).

- Post scheduled takeoff and landing times, ARCT, fuelload, and sortie duration above and below the timeline.

- Post new phase and HPO times by adding sortie durationto previous times.

- Extend timeline for Inspection, if due.

(Continued)

Figure F-4. Worksheet Plotting Requirements

F-4

WORKSHEET PLOTTING REQUIREMENTS(Continued)

- Post the aircraft T.N. to the database for the firstunassigned maintenance event.

- On the CPX MX Worksheet 1 and/or 2, extend the time-line plot for the number of fix hours to the right ofthe asterisk in the Lndg Code column.

- Post the maintenance event control number below thetimeline as shown in Figure B-3.

- Extend the plot for the 4-hour preflight/thruflight.Post a circle at the end of the timeline.

- Check the availability of needed parts in WRSK andreflect the consumption.

Repeat above steps for each aircraft as required.

Figure F-5. Worksheet Plotting Requirements (Continued)

F-5

KEY TO TIMELINE DOCUMENTATION

(Sched T.O.) (ARCT) (Fuel 1.9ad) (Phase Hours) (Type Maint)

(ached Lado) (Sortie Time) (HPO Hours) (Maint Event Control Number)

KEYSYMOLSTIMELINE LENGENDA - Aircraft Launch Sched T.O. - Scheduled Takeoff Time

- Aircraft Landing Sched Lndg - Scheduled Landing TimeAirrat valaleAROT - Air Refueling Control Time

W for tasking Fuel Load - Fuel Load Required for Mission* -Aircraft In NMC/ Sortie Time - Duration of Sortie In Hours

Cann Status Phase I-rs - Phase Inspection H-rs Accum.D Ircat Attrited HPO Hre - Hourly Postf light Hra Accum.[A] ( Arlara~ss) Type Maint - Type of Maint. Being PerformedD -Aircraft Attrited Maint Event Control Number - (From Database)

(Grond Lse) PF/TF - Pref light/Thruf light

Figure F-6. Key To Timeline Documentation

F-6

BACKGROUND

- Improve realism in command post exercises (CPX)

- Typical models used to provide realism in CPX:

-- Percentage based models

-- Random number generator models

- The historical database model

Figure F-7. Background

F-7

OBJECTIVES

- Evaluate whether the KC-135 database model provides

response cell members with the needed information to:

-- maintain aircraft availability at realistic levels

-- generate realistic demand for parts

-- improve realism during CPXs

- Evaluate the utility of the Information Guide as astand alone" document to support the database model

Figure F-8. Objectives

F-8

EXERCISE SUPPORT MATERIAL

-Information Guide

-- MESL

-- Practice Database

-- Copy of CPX MX Worksheets 1 and 2

- KC-135A/E/R Aircraft Maintenance Database

- WRSK Listing

- CPX MX Worksheets 1 and 2

- Message forms

- Task Incompletion forms

Figure F-9. Exercise Support Material

F-9

Appendix G: Mock Exercise Team Mission Tasking Orders

MISSION TASKING ORDER

TEAM 1

Take- Air RefuelingLine Off Lndg Sortie Control Time Fuel

Date Nmbr Time Time Drtn (ARCT) Load

20 Apr 1 0100 0700 6 0330 04.15 140K

2 0100 0700 6 0335 0420 140K

3 0200 0900 7 0330 0415 150K

4 0200 0900 7 0335 0420 150K

5 0300 1100 8 0415 0730 160K

6 0300 1100 8 0420 0735 160K

G- 1

MISSION TASKING ORDER

.AM 1

Take- Air RefuelingLine Off Lndg Soy-tie Control Time Fuel

Date Nmbr Time Time Drtn (ARCT) Load2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - --3 0- - - K

21 Apr 1 0000 0500 5 0230 80K

2 0000 0500 5 0235 80K

3 0100 0800 7 0230 0400 120K

4 0100 0800 7 0235 0405 120K

5 0200 1100 9 0400 0630 0800 180K

6 0200 1100 9 0405 0635 0835 180K1

G

G-2

MISSION TASKING ORDER

TEAM 2

Take- Aii. RefuelingLine Off Lndg Sortie Control Time Fuel

Date Nmbr Time Time Drtn (ARCT) Load

20 Apr 1 0100 0600 5 0245 80K

2 0100 0600 5 0250 80K

3 0200 0800 6 0400 0630 100K

4 0200 0800 6 0405. 0635 100K

5 0300 1000 7 0715 0800 130K

6 0300 1000 7 0720 0805 130K

7 0400 1200 8 0715 0800 0900 180K

8 0400 1200 8 0720 0805 0905 180K

G-3

MI.SION TASKING ORDER

TEAM 2

Take- Air RefuelingLine Off Lndg Sortie Control Time Fuel

Date Nmbr Time Time Drtn (ARCT) Load

21 Apr 1 0000 0400 4 0145 70K

2 0000 0400 4 0150 70K

3 0100 0600 5 0255 80K

4 0100 0600 5 0300 80K

5 0200 0800 6 0500 100K

6 0200 0800 6 0505 100K

7 0300 1000 7 0600 0700 1301<

8 0300 1000 7 0605 0705 130K

G-4

MISSION TASKING ORDER

TEAM 3

Take- Air RefuelingLine Off Lndg Sortie Control Time Fuel

Date Nmbr Time Time Drtn (ARCT) Load

20 Apr 1 0100 0600 5 0250 80K

2 0100 0600 5 0255 80K

3 0100 0600 5 0300 80K

4 0200 0800 6 0415 0510 120K

5 0200 0800 6 0420 0515 120K

6 0200 0800 6 0430 0520 120K

7 0300 1000 7 0445 0525 0655 170K

8 0300 1000 7 0450 0530 0700 170K

9 0300 1000 7 0455 0535 0705 170K

G

0-5

MISSION TASKING ORDER

TEAM 3

Take- Air RefuelingLine Off Lndg Sortie Control Time Fuel

Date Nmbr Time Time Drtn (ARCT) Load

21 Apr 1 0000 0600 6 0225 0310 0355 180K

2 0000 0600 6 0230 0315 0400 180K

3 0000 0600 6 0235 0320 0405 180K

4 0200 0800 6 0510 0630 150K

5 0200 0800 6 0515 0635 150K

6 0200 0800 6 0520 0640 150K

7 0400 1000 6 0710 120K

8 04d0 1000 6 0715 120K

9 0400 1000 6 0720 120K

G-6

MISSION TASKING ORDER

TEAM 4

Take- Air RefuelingLine Off Lndg Sortie Control Time Fuel

Date Nmbr Time Time Drtn (ARCT) Load

20 Apr 1 0100 0500 4 0255 70K

2 0100 0500 4 0300 70K

3 0100 0500 4 0305 70K

4 0200 0700 5 0410 90K

5 0200 0700 5 0415 90K

5 0200 0700 5 0420 90K

7 0300 0900 6 0520 0640 150K

7 0300 0900 6 0525 0645 150K

0400 1100 7 0555 0705 0840 180K

10 0400 1100 7 0600 0710 0845 180K

G-7

MISSION TASKING ORDER

TEAM 4

Take- Air RefuelingLine Off Lndg Sortie Control Time Fuel

Date Nmbr Time Time Drtn (ARCT) Load

21 Apr 1 0000 0600 6 0300 120K

2 0000 0600 6 0305 120K

3 0100 0700 6 0400 120K

4 0100 0700 6 0405 120K

5 0400 1000 6 0710 0805 150K

6 0400 1000 6 0715 0810 150K

7 0400 1000 6 0720 0815 150K

8 0600 1200 6 0850 1000 1501

9 0600 1200 6 0855 1005 150K

10 0600 1200 6 0900 1110 150K

G-8

MISSION TASKING ORDER

TEAM R

Take- Air RefuelingLine Off Lndg Sortie Control Time Fuel

Date Nmbr Time Time Drtn (ARCT) Load

20 Apr 1 0100 0500 4 0255 70K

2 0100 0500 4 0300 70K

3 0100 0500 4 0310 70K

4 0200 0700 5 0420 90K

5 0200 0700 5 0425 90K

6 0200 0700 5 0430 90K

7 0300 0900 6 0520 0630 140K

8 0300 0900 6 0525 0635 140K

9 0300 0900 6 0530 0640 140K

10 0400 1100 7 0750 0830 150K

11 0400 1100 7 0755 0835 150K

12 0400 1100 7 0800 0840 150K

13 0500 1300 8 0710 0900 1015 180K

14 0500 1300 8 0715 0905 1020 180K

G-9

MISSION TASKING ORDER

TEAM 5

Take- Air RefuelingLine Off Lndg Sortie Control Time Fuel

Date Nmbr Time Time Drtn (ARCT) Load

21 Apr 1 0000 0600 6 0255 100K

2 0000 0600 6 0300 100K

3 0200 0800 6 0455 100K

4 0200 0800 6 0500 100K

5 0400 1000 6 0555 100K

6 0400 1000 6 0600 100K

7 0600 1200 6 0925 1005 150K

8 0600 1200 6 0930 1010 150K

8 0600 1200 6 0935 1015 150K

10 0800 1400 6 1100 1210 150K

10 0800 1400 6 1105 1215 150K

12 0800 1400 6 1110 1230 150K

G-10

Bibliography

Bartlow, Col Gene S. 'The Operator-Logistician Disconnect,'Airpower Journal, 3: 23-37 (Fall 1988).

Clausewitz, Karl V. On War. Washington DC: InfantryJournal Press, 1950.

Department of Defense. Dictionary of Military andAssociated Terms. JCS Publication 1. Washington DC:Joint Chiefs of Staff, 1 June 1987.

Eccles, RADM (Ret) Henry E. 'Strategy Flexibility andkLogistics,' Logistics Spectrum,8: 19-23 (Summer 1982).

------ Logistics in the National Defense. Harrisburg PA:The Stackpole Company, 1959.

Emory, William C. Business Research Methods (ThirdEdition). Homewood IL: Irwin, 1985.

Furlong, Raymond B. "Clausewitz and Modern War Gaming,'Air University Review, 35: 4-7 (July-August 1984).

Gorby, Maj James D. *Air Force Logistics Doctrine,*Air Force Journal of Logistics, 9: 24-30 (Winter1980).

Hagel, Maj Stephen J. Realism in Exercises. MS Thesis,AFIT/GLM/LSG/89S-26. School of Systems and Logistics,Air Force Institute of Technology (AU), Wright-Patterson AFB OH, September 1989 (AD-A215362).

Hall, Capt Russell S. Improving Logistics Realism inCommand Post Exercises. MS Thesis, AFIT/GLM/L. 3/89S-30. School of Systems and Logistics, Air ForceInstitute of Technology (AU), Wright-Patterson AFB OH,September 1989 (AD-B138828).

----- and Lt Col Phillip E. Miller. 'Integrating LogisticsReality Into Command Post Exercises,* Air Force Journalof Logistics, 14: 33-36 (Winter 1990).

Headquarters, USAF/LEXX. *Joint Logistics Board (JLB)Sustainability." Electronic Message. 102025Z,November 1988.

BIB-i

Heflin, Woodford Agee. The United States Air ForceDictionary. Washington DC: Air University Press,1956.

Heinl, Col Robert Debs, Jr. Dictionary of Militaryand Naval Quotations. Annapolis MD: U.S. NavalInstitute, 1967.

Hoover, Lt Col Ronald D. "Logistics Realism in Exercises.*Air Force Journal of Logistics, 8: 27-29 (Winter1984). (

McCann, Col John A. (ED). Compendium of AuthenticatedSystems and Logistics Terms, Definitions and Acronyms.AU/AFIT/LS/3/81. School of Systems and Logistics, AirForce Institute of Technology (AI), Wright-PattersonAFB OH, 1981 (AD-AO0655).

McCarty, Lt Col Deryl S. War Games and Logistics. Air WarCollege research report, April 1988 (AU-AWC-88-169).

McClave James T. and P. George Benson. Statistics forBusiness and Economics (Fourth Edition). San FranciscoCA: Dellen Publishing Company, 1988.

Melos, Lt Cmdr John. "Exercises in Wishful Thinking" ArmedForces Journal International, 125: 76-77 (April 1988).

Ogan, Capt Andrew J. "What About Logistics,: Air ForceJournal of Logistics, 7: 21-23 (Summer 1983).

Peppers, Jerome G., Jr. *Logistics and Strategy," LogisticsSpectrum, 20: 13-17 (Winter 1986).

Perla, Peter P. and Lt Cmdr Raymond T. Barrett. "WhatWargaming Is and Is Not," Naval War College Review,XX1I: 70-78 (September-October 1985).

Perry, M.j Gregg T. "The Limitations of JCS Exercises,"ALt'iift, 9: 4-9 (Winter 1987).

Quick, Jtshi. Dictionary of Weapons and Military Terms. PbLrke;ey CA: McGraw Hill Book Company, 1973.

Russo, Capt Anthony J. An Evaluation oi a ManagementWargame and the Factors Affecting Game Performance. MSThesis, AFIT/GSM/LS/87S-28. School of Systems andLogistics, Air Force Institute of Technology (AU),Wright-Patterson A n OH, September 1987 (AD-AI86962).

BIB-2

Vita

Captain Lyndon S. Anderson was born on 1 March 1958 in

Sarasota, Florida. He enlisted in the United States Air

Force in March 1981 and was later assigned to F. E. Warren

AFB, Wyoming, as a Missile System's Analyst for the Minute-

man III Nuclear Weapon System. He worked as an Electro-

mechanical Team Chief, and later as a Master Inspector/Eval-

uator in the Maintenance Deputate's Quality Assurance

Division. He earned a Bachelor of Science Degree in In-

dustrial Technology from Southern Illinois University in

June 1983. He was commissioned through the USAF Officer

Training School in March 1985. Upon graduation from the

Aircraft Maintenance Officer's Course, he was assigned to

Carswell AFB, Texas. Some of his duties included Officer-

in-Charge (OIC) of the wing's KC-135A Tanker Branch and

B-52H Bomber Branch. Following the incorporation of the

Readiness Oriented Logistic System (ROLS) maintenance con-

cept, his duties included QIC of the newly formed Special-

ist Branch and Bomber Maintenance Unit. He later worked as

the squadron's Assistant Maintenance Supervisor until enter-

ing the School of Systems and Logistics at the Air Force

Institute of Technology in June 1989. Upon graduation, he

will be assigned to the Air Force Logistics Management

Center at Gunter AFB, Alabama.

Permanent Address: 4417 Pepper Ave.Montgomery, AL 36109

VIT-1

Form ApprovedREPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE OMB No. 0704-0188

Public re orting burden for this collection of information is estimat.o to average I hour der rescorse, nctuaing the tine for reu-ew.ng instrucions, searching exsting data sources.gathering and maintaining the data needed, and comoleting and reviewing the oliection of information Send komments regaroing this burden estimate or any -r aspect of thiscollection of information, including suggestion, for reduung this ournen to hashington Headquarter Sei ices, Directorate for .nformation Olperations and Rep( 12 5 jeffersonOavis Highwa. Suite 1204. Arlington, vA 2202.4302. And to the Offike f %anagement and Budget, NP er,.or Reduction Pro t (0704-0188), Vashington, DC -.. 3

1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED

I September 1990 1 Master's Thesis4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Improving Logistics Realism In Command 5. FUNDING NUMBERS

Post Exercises Involving The KC-135A/E/R Aircraft UsingA Historical Aircraft Maintenance Database Model

6. AUTHOR(S)

Lyndon S. Anderson, Captain,..USAF

7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATIONREPORT NUMBERAir Force Institute of Technology, WPAFB OH 45433-6583

AFIT/GLM/LSM/90S-2

9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/ MONITORINGAGENCY REPORT NUMBER

11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES

12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE

Approved for public release; distribution unlimited

13. ABSTRACT (Maximum'200words) This study, under the sponsorship of HQ SAC/LGL, investigated

a method to improve realism in Command Post Exercises (CPX) involving the KC-135A/E/Raircraft by developing a historical database model. The model is based on the pre-mise that realistic data collected from actual war-like missions can be placed in adatabase for use by response cell members to provide simulated, yet realistic, logis-tical requirements during CPXs. European Tanker Task Force flying mission data wasused as source data for the development of the model. Associated documentation wasalso developed to support the model. A mock exercise simulating a CPX was used totest the model and its associated documentation. Analysis of the test results leadthe researcher to conclude that the model provides response cell members with a use-ful tool to obtain realistic logistical information they need to carry out theirduties effectively. Recommendations include using the model and documentation asrequired by HQ SAC/LGL, and conducting further research to test the hypothesis thathistorical database models improves realism at the response cell level during CPXs.

14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF PAGESMilitary Exercise(s) Database(s) Simulation(s) Logistics 220Military Operation(s) War Games) 16. PRICE CODE

17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 18. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 19. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 20. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT

OF REPORT OF THIS PAGE OF ABSTRACT

Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified ULNSN 7540.01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev 2-89)

Prescribed by ANSI Std 139.18298-102