copyright ©2008 by cengage learning. all rights reserved 1 chapter 5 planning and decision making...
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1Copyright ©2008 by Cengage Learning. All rights reserved
Chapter 5Planning and Decision Making
Designed & Prepared byB-books, Ltd.
MGMT2008
Chuck Williams
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2Copyright ©2008 by Cengage Learning. All rights reserved
Planning
After reading these sections, you should be able to:
1. discuss the benefits and pitfalls of planning.
2. describe how to make a plan that works.
3. discuss how companies can use plans at allmanagement levels, from top to bottom.
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Planning
Planning
Choosing a goal and developing amethod of strategy to achieve that goal
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Benefits of Planning
Benefits of Planning
Benefits of Planning
Creationof Task
Strategies
Creationof Task
Strategies
IntensifiedEffort
IntensifiedEffort
DirectionDirectionPersistencePersistence
1.21.2
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Pitfalls of Planning
Pitfalls of Planning
Pitfalls of Planning
Detachmentof Planners
Detachmentof Planners
Impedes Changeand Adaptation
Impedes Changeand Adaptation
False Senseof Certainty
False Senseof Certainty
1.21.2
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How to Make a Plan That Works
Set Goals
Set Goals
DevelopCommitment
DevelopCommitment
DevelopEffectiveActionPlans
DevelopEffectiveActionPlans
TrackProgressToward
GoalAchievement
TrackProgressToward
GoalAchievement
MaintainFlexibility
MaintainFlexibility
Revise existing planor
Begin new planning process
Revise existing planor
Begin new planning process
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S.M
.A.R
.T.
S.M
.A.R
.T.
S.M
.A.R
.T.
S.M
.A.R
.T. SpecificSpecific
MeasurableMeasurable
AttainableAttainable
RealisticRealistic
TimelyTimely
Setting Goals
2.12.1
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Examples of S.M.A.R.T. Goals?• Starbucks: “In fiscal 2006, we
plan to open approximately 1,800 net new stores globally.”
• Walgreen: “Second is to hire a significant number of people with disabilities in our South Carolina distribution center, scheduled to open in 2007, and achieve 20% productivity gains there.”
• UPS: “65% of drivers will have access to the new technology (implemented in 2004) by the end of 2005.” and “In 2005, we will increase operating profit in each of our 3 key businesses: domestic, int’l, supply chain.”
• Wrigley: “In 2005, the company will decrease the long-term rate of return assumption for the assets of its U.S. (pension) plans from 8.75 % to 8.5%.”
• Halliburton: “We estimate that 74% of the backlog existing on 12/31 will be eliminated the following fiscal year.”
• Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia: “In 2004 we will discontinue the Catalog for Living and its online product options, and sell remaining inventory in early fiscal 2005.”
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Developing Commitment to Goals
The determination to achieve a goal is increased by:– Setting goals participatively– Making goals reasonable– Making goals public– Obtaining top management support
2.22.2
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Developing Effective Action Plans
Specific StepsSpecific Steps
PeoplePeople
ResourcesResources
Time PeriodTime Period
An Action Plan Lists…
2.32.3
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Dunkin’ Donuts Plans Expansion• Dunkin’ Donuts operates
primarily in New England and along the East coast.
• It wants to expand its presence in the South, the West, and oversees.
• Dunkin’ Donuts is using surveys and demographic studies to find specific areas for expansion.
Beyond the Book
Source: Adamy, J. “Dunkin’ Donuts Whips Up A Recipe for Expansion.” The Wall Street Journal. May 3, 2007. pg.B1.
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Tracking Progress
Set…Set…
Proximal GoalsProximal Goals
Distal GoalsDistal Goals
Gather and provide…Gather and provide…
Performance Feedback
Performance Feedback
2.42.4
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Maintaining Flexibility
Option-based planning– keep options open by making
simultaneous investments• invest more in promising options• maintains slack resources
Learning-based planning– plans need to be continuously
adjusted2.52.5
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Staying Flexible
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Planning from Top to Bottom
Standing PlansOperational PlansSingle-Use Plans
Tactical Plans, MBO
Mission
Vision
3
Vision
Mission
Tactical Plans, MBO
Operational, Standing, Single-Use
Top Managers
Middle
First-Level Managers
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Starting at the Top
Strategic PlansStrategic PlansClarify how the company will serve customers and position itself against competitors (2-5 years)
Clarify how the company will serve customers and position itself against competitors (2-5 years)
VisionVisionAn inspirational statement of anorganization’s purpose (2 sentences)
An inspirational statement of anorganization’s purpose (2 sentences)
MissionMission
Overall goal that unifies efforts towardits vision, stretches and challenges,and possesses a finish line andtime frame. Flows from vision.
Overall goal that unifies efforts towardits vision, stretches and challenges,and possesses a finish line andtime frame. Flows from vision.3.13.1
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Planning Time Lines
Years0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Pla
ns
Strategic
Tactical
Operational
5 Years
2 years
30 days
6 months
6 months
2 Years
Beyond the Book
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Merck Corporation’s Vision and Values
Source: “The Merck Corporate Philosophy,” 17 February 2005. ©Merck & Co, Inc., All rights reserved.
Beyond the Book
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Bending in the Middle
Tactical PlansTactical Plans
Specify how a company will use resources, budgets, and people toaccomplish goals within its mission. (6 months to 2 years)
Specify how a company will use resources, budgets, and people toaccomplish goals within its mission. (6 months to 2 years)
Managementby
Objectives
Managementby
ObjectivesDevelop and carry out tactical plansDevelop and carry out tactical plans
1. Discuss possible goals
2. Participatively select goals consistent with overall goals
3. Jointly develop tactical plans
4. Meet to review progress3.23.2
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Management by Objectives
Steps to Management by Objectives:
1. Discuss possible goals
2. Select goals that are challenging, attainable and consistent with the company’s overall goals
3. Jointly develop tactical plans that lead to the accomplishment of tactical goals and objectives
4. Meet regularly to review progress
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Finishing at the Bottom
Operational Plans
Operational Plans
Day-to-day plans for producing or delivering products and services overa 30-day to six-month period
Day-to-day plans for producing or delivering products and services overa 30-day to six-month period
3.23.2
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Kinds of Operational Plans
Single-Use PlansSingle-Use Plans Plans that cover unique, one-time-only events
Plans that cover unique, one-time-only events
Standing PlansStanding Plans
Plans used repeatedly to handle frequently recurring events.Three kinds are: policies, procedures,and rules and regulations.
Plans used repeatedly to handle frequently recurring events.Three kinds are: policies, procedures,and rules and regulations.
BudgetsBudgetsQuantitative planning to decide howto allocate money to accomplish company goals
Quantitative planning to decide howto allocate money to accomplish company goals
3.33.3
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What Is Rational Decision Making?
After reading these sections, you should be able to:
4. explain the steps and limits to rational decision making.
5. explain how group decisions and groupdecision-making techniques can improvedecision-making.
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What Is Rational Decision Making?
Decision Making
The process of choosing a solution fromavailable alternatives.
Rational Decision Making
A systematic process of defining problems, evaluating alternatives, and choosing optimal solutions.
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Steps to Rational Decision Making
Define the problemDefine the problem
Identify decision criteriaIdentify decision criteria
Weight the criteriaWeight the criteria
Generate alternative courses of actionGenerate alternative courses of action
Evaluate each alternativeEvaluate each alternative
Compute the optimal decisionCompute the optimal decision
11
22
33
44
55
6644
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Steps to Rational Decision Making
Define the problemDefine the problem11
• A problem exists when there is a gap between a desired state and an existing state
• To make decisions about problems, managers must:– be aware of the gap– be motivated to reduce the gap– have the knowledge, skills, abilities, and
resources to fix the problem
4.14.1
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Defining the Problem
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Steps to Rational Decision Making
Identify decision criteriaIdentify decision criteria22
• Standards used to guide judgments and decisions
• The more criteria a potential solution meets, the better that solution should be
4.24.2
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Steps to Rational Decision Making
Weight the criteriaWeight the criteria33
• Absolute comparisons– each criterion is compared to a standard
or ranked on its own merits
• Relative comparisons– each criterion is compared directly to
every other criterion
4.34.3
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Steps to Rational Decision Making
Absolute Weighting of Decision CriteriaAbsolute Weighting of Decision Criteria
4.34.3
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Steps to Rational Decision Making
Relative Weighting of Decision CriteriaRelative Weighting of Decision Criteria
4.34.3
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Steps to Rational Decision Making
Generate alternative courses of actionGenerate alternative courses of action44
• The idea is to generate as many alternatives as possible
4.44.4
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Evaluate each alternativeEvaluate each alternative55
Steps to Rational Decision Making
• This step can take much longer and be more expensive than other steps in the process
4.54.5
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Compute the optimal decisionCompute the optimal decision66
Steps to Rational Decision Making
• Multiply the rating for each criterion by the weight for that criterion
• Sum the scores for each alternative course of action
4.64.6
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Limits to Rational Decision Making
Bounded Rationality
A decision-making process restricted in the real world by:
limited resources incomplete and imperfect information managers’ limited decision-making
capabilities
4.74.7
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Limits to Rational Decision Making
MaximizeMaximize SatisficeSatisfice
4.74.7
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Using Groups to Improve Decision Making
DelphiTechnique
DelphiTechnique
StepladderTechnique
StepladderTechnique
ElectronicBrainstorming
ElectronicBrainstorming
StructuredConflict
StructuredConflict
NominalGroup
Technique
NominalGroup
Technique
55
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Group Decision Making
1. View problems from multiple perspectives
2. Find and access more information
3. Generate more alternative solutions
4. More committed to making chosen solutions work
1. View problems from multiple perspectives
2. Find and access more information
3. Generate more alternative solutions
4. More committed to making chosen solutions work
Advantages
5.15.1
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Group Decision Making
1. Susceptible to groupthink and to considering a limited number of solutions
2. Takes considerable time
3. One or two people can dominate group discussion
4. Members don’t feel personally accountable for decisions and actions
1. Susceptible to groupthink and to considering a limited number of solutions
2. Takes considerable time
3. One or two people can dominate group discussion
4. Members don’t feel personally accountable for decisions and actions
Disadvantages
5.15.1
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Groupthink
The group is insulated from others with different perspectives
The group leader expresses a strong preference for a particular decision
There is no established procedure for defining problems and exploring alternatives
Group members have similar backgrounds
The group is insulated from others with different perspectives
The group leader expresses a strong preference for a particular decision
There is no established procedure for defining problems and exploring alternatives
Group members have similar backgrounds
Groupthink is likely to occur when…
5.15.1
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Effect of Groupthink
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Structured Conflict
C-Type ConflictC-Type Conflict
Cognitive conflict. Disagreement that focuses onproblem- and issue-related differences of opinion
Cognitive conflict. Disagreement that focuses onproblem- and issue-related differences of opinion
A-Type ConflictA-Type ConflictAffective conflict.Disagreement that focuses onindividuals or personal issues
Affective conflict.Disagreement that focuses onindividuals or personal issues
5.35.3
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Devil’s Advocacy
Steps to Establish a Devil’s Advocacy Program
1. Generate a potential solution
2. Assign a devil’s advocate to criticize and question
3. Present the critique of the solution to key decision makers
4. Gather additional information
5. Decide whether to use, change, or not usethe originally proposed solution
1. Generate a potential solution
2. Assign a devil’s advocate to criticize and question
3. Present the critique of the solution to key decision makers
4. Gather additional information
5. Decide whether to use, change, or not usethe originally proposed solution
5.25.2
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Dialectical Inquiry
Steps to Establish a Dialectical Inquiry Process
1. Generate a potential solution
2. Identify the assumptions underlying thepotential solution
3. Generate a conflicting counterproposal basedon opposite assumptions
4. Have advocates of each position present theirarguments and engage in a debate in front ofdecision makers
5. Decide whether to use, change, or not usethe originally proposed solution
1. Generate a potential solution
2. Identify the assumptions underlying thepotential solution
3. Generate a conflicting counterproposal basedon opposite assumptions
4. Have advocates of each position present theirarguments and engage in a debate in front ofdecision makers
5. Decide whether to use, change, or not usethe originally proposed solution
Beyond the Book
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Nominal Group Technique
Steps to Establish Nominal Group Technique
1. During a “quiet time,” group members write down as many problems and solutions as possible
2. Each member shares one idea at a time
3. Ideas are posted on flipcharts until all ideas are shared
4. Group discusses advantages/disadvantages
5. Ideas are ranked during a second “quiet time”
6. Members read rankings aloud, and the idea with thehighest average rank is selected
1. During a “quiet time,” group members write down as many problems and solutions as possible
2. Each member shares one idea at a time
3. Ideas are posted on flipcharts until all ideas are shared
4. Group discusses advantages/disadvantages
5. Ideas are ranked during a second “quiet time”
6. Members read rankings aloud, and the idea with thehighest average rank is selected
5.35.3
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Delphi Technique Steps to Establish Delphi Technique
1. Assemble a panel of experts.
2. Create a questionnaire of open-ended questions.
3. Summarize the responses and feed back to the panel until the members reach agreement.
4. Create a brief report and send to the panel members for agreement/disagreement.
5. Continue the feedback process until panel reaches agreement.
1. Assemble a panel of experts.
2. Create a questionnaire of open-ended questions.
3. Summarize the responses and feed back to the panel until the members reach agreement.
4. Create a brief report and send to the panel members for agreement/disagreement.
5. Continue the feedback process until panel reaches agreement.
5.45.4
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Stepladder Technique
Member 1Shares thoughts, ideas, recommendations
Member 2Shares thoughts, ideas, recommendations
Discussion is Held and Tentative Group Decision is Made
Member 3 Joins Group Shares thoughts, ideas, recommendations
Members 1 & 2Share previous thoughts, ideas, recommendations
Discussion is Held and Tentative Group Decision is Made
Member 4 Joins Group Shares thoughts, ideas, recommendations
Members 1, 2, & 3 Share previous thoughts, ideas, recommendations
Discussion is Held and Tentative Group Decision is Made
Step 1
Step 2
Step 3
Beyond the Book
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Electronic BrainstormingFour Rules of Brainstorming
1. The more ideas, the better.
2. All ideas are acceptable, no matter how wild or crazy.
3. Other group members’ ideas should be usedto come up with even more ideas.
4. Criticism or evaluation of ideas is not allowed.
1. The more ideas, the better.
2. All ideas are acceptable, no matter how wild or crazy.
3. Other group members’ ideas should be usedto come up with even more ideas.
4. Criticism or evaluation of ideas is not allowed.
5.65.6
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Electronic BrainstormingAdvantages of Electronic Brainstorming
Overcomes production blocking• technology allows everyone to record
their ideas as they are created• no ideas lost “waiting your turn” to
speak Overcomes evaluation apprehension
• anonymity creates free expression
5.65.6
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Electronic BrainstormingDisadvantages of Electronic Brainstorming
• Greater expense
• No automatic acceptance of ideas because of one’s position
• Some find it difficult to express themselves in writing
• Lack of typing skills can frustrate participants
5.65.6