copyright © 2012 pearson canada inc.10 -1 chapter 10 risk assessment
TRANSCRIPT
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Copyright © 2012 Pearson Canada Inc. 10 -1
Chapter 10
Risk Assessment
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Learning Objectives
• Define the components of risk assessment
• List what role risk assessment play in Canada
• Describe the types of correct and incorrect risk predictions
• Differentiate among static, stable, and acute dynamic risk factors
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Learning Objectives
• Describe unstructured clinical judgment, actuarial prediction, and structured professional judgment
• List the four major types of risk factors
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What is Risk Assessment?
• Risk is viewed as a range (Steadman, 2000)– Probabilities change across time– Interaction among offender
characteristics and situation• Risk assessment has 2 components:
– Prediction– Management
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Risk Assessments: Civil Settings
• Civil commitment
• Child protection
• Immigration laws
• School and labour regulations
• Duty to warn
• Limits of confidentiality
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Risk Assessments: Criminal Settings
• Risk assessments conducted at major decision points:– Pretrial– Sentencing– Release
• Public safety outweighs solicitor-client privilege (Smith v. Jones, 1999)
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Types of Prediction Outcomes
• True Positive • True Negative• False Positive • False Negative
– Two types of errors are dependent on each other
– Each outcome has different consequences for offender or society
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Predictions: Decisions Versus Outcomes
DECISIONReoffends Does not
reoffend
Predicted to reoffend
True positive
(correct)
False positive
(incorrect)
Predicted to not reoffend
False negative
(incorrect)
True negative (correct)
OUTCOME
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History of Risk Assessment
• 1960’s– Baxstrom v. Herald (1966)– Dixon v. Attorney General of the
Commonwealth of Pennsylvania (1971)
• Baxstrom and Dixon studies– Base rate for violence low– False positive rate high
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Base Rates
• Represents the % of people within a given population who commit a criminal or violent act– Prediction difficult when base rates are
too high or low– False positives tend to occur with low
base rates• Easier to predict frequent vs. infrequent
events
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Methodological Issues
• Assumptions of risk assessment and measurement– Ideal evaluation vs. reality
• Three weaknesses of research (Monahan & Steadman, 1994):– Limited number of risk factors– How criterion variable is measured– How criterion variable is defined
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Judgment Error and Biases
• Heuristics
• Illusory correlation
• Ignore base rates
• Reliance on salient or unique cues
• Overconfidence in judgements
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Unstructured Clinical Judgment
• Decisions characterized by professional discretion and lack of guidelines
• Subjective
• No specific risk factors
• No rules about how risk decisions should be made
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Dr. James Grigson
• Nicknamed “Dr. Death” or “the hanging shrink”
• Forensic psychiatrist in Dallas– Used unstructured clinical judgment– Expelled from professional association
for claims of 100% accuracy in predicting violence
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Actuarial Prediction
• Decisions based on risk factors that are selected and combined based on empirical or statistical evidence
• Most actuarial risk instruments include only static risk factors
• Evidence favours actuarial assessments over unstructured clinical judgment
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Structured Professional Judgment
• Decisions guided by predetermined list of risk factors derived from research literature
• Judgment of risk level is based on professional judgement
• Diverse group of professionals
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Risk Factor: Definition
• Risk Factor – measurable feature of an individual that predicts the behaviour of interest (e.g., criminal behaviour or violence)
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Types of Predictors
• Static Risk Factors– Historical– Factors that cannot be changed
• Dynamic Risk Factors – Fluctuate over time– Factors that can be changed– Acute vs. stable dynamic risk factors
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Important Risk Factors
• Dispositional
• Historical
• Clinical
• Contextual
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Dispositional Risk Factors
• Demographics– Age– Gender
• Personality characteristics– Impulsivity– Psychopathy
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Historical Risk Factors
• Past antisocial behaviour
• Age of onset of antisocial behaviour
• Childhood history of maltreatment
• Past supervision failure, escape, or institution maladjustment
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Clinical Risk Factors
• Substance use
• Mental disorder– Diagnosis of schizophrenia or affective
disorders– “Threat/control override” (TCO)
symptoms
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Contextual Risk Factors
• Lack of social support to help individual in his or her day-to-day life
• Easy access to weapons
• Easy access to victims
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Risk Assessment Instruments
• Actuarial Instruments– Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG;
Harris et al., 1993)– Static-99(Hanson & Thornton, 1999)
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Risk Assessment Instruments (continued)
• Structured Professional Judgment Instruments– HCR-20 (Webster et al., 1997)– Violence Risk Scale (VRS; Wong &
Gordon, 2006)– Spousal Assault Risk Assessment
(SARA; Kropp et al., 1999)
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Current Issues
• Where is the theory?– More attention on WHY is needed
• Protective factors– Factors that reduce or mitigate the
likelihood of violence
• Limitations of risk assessments
• Use of scientific research– Practitioners not using instruments
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Coping-Relapse Model of Criminal Recidivism (Figure 10.1; Zamble &
Quinsey, 1997)
Precipitating Event
Cognitive & Emotional Appraisal
Response MechanismIndividual Influences
Criminal Behaviour
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Female Offenders and Crime
• Gender differences in criminality
– Women engage in less crime
– Women reoffend at lower rates
– Childhood victimization more prevalent
– Mental disorders more prevalent
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Female Offenders and Risk
• More similarities in risk factors for men and women than differences
• Gender-specific risk factors– History of self-injury– Poor self-esteem
• How well do risk assessment instruments developed with male offenders work with female offenders?– LSI-R has predictive validity
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Desistance From Crime
• Desistance: process of ceasing to engage in criminal behaviour
• Little research on why offenders stop committing crime
• Factors relating to desistance:– Age– Employment– Marital relationships