copyright © 2019 steelmint · indian iron ore exports up 82% y-o-y in cy'19 indian iron ore...
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Copyright © 2019 SteelMint
Indian Iron Ore Exports
Up 82% Y-o-Y in CY'19
Indian iron ore exports volume for Dec'19 witnessed marginally down at 2.28 MnT as against
2.29 MnT a month ago.
Indian iron ore exports have recorded significant rise for the year CY19. The exports
witnessed at 19.14 MnT, up 82% on yearly basis as against CY'18 exports at 10.53 MnT. Indian
iron ore exports volume have rebounded for the year as the levels were last witnessed in
CY17 at 19.88 MnT. Odisha merchant miners actively raised exports majorly of low grade to
China in CY19.
PG | 01 Iron Ore Insight - January’20
Reason behind the significant iron
ore exports turnaround for the year
Vale towards Oct’19 revised the guidance to lower and midpoint of the range 307-332 MnT as
against being towards the midpoint of the range.
The spot iron ore fines (Fe 62%) price for the year (CY’19) increased to USD 94/MT, CFR China
as compared to USD 70/MT, CFR China in CY18. The rising demand from Chinese mills and
material crises in the global market led to rise in prices for the year.
Monthly average global iron ore fines (Fe 62%) index price in July’19 witnessed highest for
the year at USD 120/MT,CFR China. The prices for the month were hovering five years high
levels at USD 126/MT, CFR China towards early July.
High global prices:
Global material shortage amid global supply crisis:
Indian iron ore exports picked up amid reduced material availability by major iron ore miners
from Australia and Brazil. World’s largest iron ore miner Vale underwent a dam disaster in
Jan’19 following cyclone hit in Australia resulted further material crises. As a result, Vale, Rio
Tinto, and other miners reduced the production guidance.
Monthly Average Global
Iron Ore Fines (Fe 62%) Prices
PG | 02 Iron Ore Insight - January’20
Source: SteelMint Research
76
87 88
93
99
109
120
92 9389
84.5
91
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Qty
in M
nT
Jan’19 Feb’19 Mar’19 Apr’19 May’19 Jun’19 Jul’19 Aug’19 Sep’19 Oct’19 Nov’19 Dec’19
CY'18 Average PriceUSD 70/MT
CY'19 Average PriceUSD 94/MT
Indian iron ore exports to
China doubled in CY19Indian iron ore exports to China for the year recorded at 16.48 MnT, up almost two folds on
yearly basis as against 8.40 MnT in CY18. The increased demand for low grade iron ore in
China amid global supply constraints led to stimulate iron ore exports from India. Japan
stood second largest at 1.70 MnT, up 11% followed by South Korea at 0.60 MnT.
Rungta turned out to be the largest
iron ore exporter with 4 MnT in CY'19
PG | 03 Iron Ore Insight - January’20
Low grade iron ore fines export prices from Odisha moved up in CY19. Rungta Mines stood
the largest iron ore exporter in CY19 at 4.12 MnT, up 78% as against 2.31MnT in CY'18. SM
Niryat stood second-largest exporter for the year and its exports picked up sharply to 3.89
MnT (up against 0.32 MnT in CY18), followed by MMTC at 2.30 MnT, up 63% Y-o-Y.
Top Five Iron Ore Exporter
in CY'19
Qty in MnT, Provisional data, Source: SteelMint Research, Customs
Company
Rungta Mines 4.12 2.31
SM Niryat 3.89 0.32
MMTC 2.30 1.41
Bagadiya Brothers 1.72 -
Kashvi Power & Steel 1.36 -
Others 5.74 6.49
Grand Total 19.14 10.53
CY'19 CY'18
World's Major Countries Import
South KoreaChina Japan
PG | 04
China - world's largest iron ore consumer and importer recorded iron ore and pellet imports at 1069 MnT
in CY19 compared to last year imports at 1064 MnT. Iron ore imports from Australia & Brazil fell however
imports from India increased sharply in CY19.
Australia iron ore export has recorded marginal drop in CY’19. Australia's iron ore export shipments recorded at
847.96 MnT in CY'19, as compared to 852.68 MnT in CY’18 amid weather disruptions & operational challenges
Brazil recorded fall in export volumes in CY’19 by 15% to 334.67 MnT amid Vale mishap in Jan’19 as against
394.24 MnT in CY18.
Source: Vessel Lineup Data, SteelMint Research
World's Major Iron Ore Exporting Countries
Australia Brazil South Africa
68.33 71.979.54
31.2 27.25 24.67
3.62 4.91 6.04
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Oct'19 Nov'19 Dec'19
Qty
In M
nT
Source: Customs data, SteelMint Research
90.65101.3
10.035.2 7.66
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Nov'19 Dec'19
Qty
In M
nT
Iron Ore Insight - January’20
China: Iron Ore Inventory
Source: SteelMint Research and Steelhome
As per data compiled by SteelHome consultancy, iron ore inventory at major Chinese ports decreased
to 127.05 MnT as on 22th Jan 2020 as compared to 129.5 MnT towards the end of Dec'19.
China’s Crude ROM production
Fig in MnT, Source: National Bureau of Statistics
PG | 05
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China - recorded crude iron ore production at 858.9 MnT
in CY19, up 8% as against 793.04 MnT in CY18.
Iron Ore Pellet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
19
th O
ct
2n
d N
ov
16
th N
ov
30
th N
ov
14
thD
ec
28
th D
ec
11
th J
an
25
th J
an
11
th F
eb
22
nd
Fe
b
8th
Ma
r
22
nd
Ma
r
4th
Ap
r
19
th A
pr
5th
May
17
th M
ay
31
st M
ay
21
st J
un
e
5th
Ju
ly
19
th J
uly
2n
d A
ug
16
th A
ug
30
th A
ug
12
th S
ep
26
th S
ep
17
th O
ct
30
th O
ct
14
th N
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28
th N
ov
12
th D
ec
26
th D
ec
9th
Ja
n
22
nd
Ja
n
Pe
llet
Inve
nto
ry in
Mn
T
Iro
n O
re I
nve
nto
ry in
Mn
T
75.8
Sept’19 Oct’19
78.579.25
Nov'19 Dec’19
77.4
Iron Ore Insight - January’20
Global Iron Ore and Pellets Prices-:
Particulars Grade (Fe %) Current Price Last Month’s Lowest
Last Month’s Highest
M-o-M
Prices in USD/MT, China, FoB India prices in USD/MT
Particulars SizeGrade (Fe %)
Current Price
Last Month’s Lowest
Last Month’s Highest M-o-M
5-18mm 63
Fines 63
10-40, DR CLO 67
6-40, Baila Lump 65
Baila Fines 63
Lump 63
Fines 60
Durgapur Pellets 63
Raipur Pellets 63
Bellary Pellets 63
Raipur Mills scale Fe 70/68%
Kandla Mills scale Fe 70/68%
India Domestic Iron ore Prices
Mill Scale Prices
Odisha
NMDC, Chhattisgarh
Karnataka
Odisha merchant miners hike iron ore twice in Jan'20, however bookings at increased offers remained low. OMC iron ore lump e-auction on 24th Jan’20. 390,000 MT got booked at close to base price & remaining fetched INR 290/MT above set base price
NMDC has increased iron ore prices twice in the month of Jan 2020.
India Domestic Pellet Prices
Raw Material Prices-:
NMDC (C.G.) prices are FoR, Royalty, DMF, NMET & other taxes extra, Karnataka e-auction bid prices are weighted avg & basic (Exclu. Royalty DMF and NMET)
Odisha Ex Mines Prices incld Royalty, DMF & NMET, Mills Scale:Raipur prices are ex-works and Kandla prices are delivered in INR/MT
Domestic pellet prices in India increased following hike in iron ore and sponge prices.
Mill scale prices increased sharply amid hike in both finished and raw material offers.
ROM 65
South African Lump 64
Australia Fines 62
India Low grade fines 58/57
FoB India Pellets 64
Spot Pellet Premium BF grade, Fe 65%
Spot Lump Premium Fe 62%
PG | 06
105 96 103 6
85 89 94 7
58.5 56 58 0.5
114 99 101.5 13.5
39 23.6 25.7 14.05
0.26 0.24 0.26 0.04
Mill scale prices increased sharply amid hike in both finished and raw material offers.
4650 3950 4650 400
2500 1950 2250 250
3720 3250 3720 700
3200 2800 3200 600
3010 2630 3010 570
2910 2560 2910 550
2800 2800 2800 20
1560 1560 1560 370
6450 5,900 6,850 50
7,400 6,300 7,100 400
6,900 6,250 6,600 300
2,950 2,750 3,000 200
2,750 2,750 2,750 0
Iron Ore Insight - January’20
Oct’18Nov’18 Dec’18
Source: SteelMint, Provisional Data, Qty in MT, N/A: Not Available, Prices in USD/MT, CNF India basis
Iron ore and Pellets Stats
Fig in MnT, Source: Vessel data, SteelMint Research
Indian iron ore exports stood at 19.14 MnT, up 82% on yearly basis as against CY’18 exports at 10.53 MnT.
Exports to China doubled to 16.48 MnT in Cy19.
Indian pellet export volumes in CY'19 recorded at 13.01 MnT, up 59% on yearly basis as against 8.19 MnT in CY’18.
Tightening production curbs in China alongwith demand from non-Chinese markets, resulted in increase in Indian
pellet export volumes.
Iron Ore Insight - January’20PG | 07
Vessel freight to China
Route Vessel Type Freight in USD/MT
Indian East Coast Supramax
Brazil Capesize
South Africa Panamax
10
18.41
17.03
Oct'19 Nov'19 Dec'19
19.33
1.74 0.89
22.77
0.12
2.291.170.1
2.281.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
Iron ore Pellets Iron ore Pellets Iron ore Pellets
Production Imports Exports
Qty
In M
nT
Krishnapatnam South Africa Lumps 64.87 24,240 Pushpit Steels 105
Krishnapatnam South Africa Lumps N/A 24,240 Akshara Industries 102
Mormugao South Africa Lumps 63.86 53,000 Goa Sponge 115
Dec'18Unload Port Origin Country Type Grade (Fe%) Qty Importer Import Price
Port wise India Import Price in Dec'19
JSW Steel Iron ore
Iron ore
Pellets
Iron ore
PelletsBhushan Steel
Essar Steel
Name of steel making company Iron ore/Pellets
Qty in MnT , Provisional data, Source: SteelMint Research, Customs Revised Data
Jun'19 Jul'19 Aug'19Name of steel making company Iron ore/Pellets
Iron ore/pellet sourcing pattern
of India’s major steel makers
Qty in MnT , Provisional data, Source: SteelMint Research, Customs Revised Data
Oct'19 Nov'19 Dec'19
IRON OREI N S I G H T | J A N U A R Y 2 0 2 0
0.002
2.33 1.9 2.71
1.05 1.19 1.14
- - -
0.31 0.41 0.4
0.001 0.002
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Indranath Jha(Research Analyst)
Monika Bajaj(Research Analyst)
#301, Jeevan Parisar,Rajeev Nagar BehindCrystal Arcade Raipur492007 (C.G) IndiaWeb: www.steelmint.com
Raipur - Kolkata