copyright dan plesch 2004 could al qaeda win? dan plesch strategic studies course uk armed forces...

Copyright Dan Plesch 2004

Could Al Qaeda Win?Dan Plesch

Strategic Studies Course

UK Armed Forces

University of Cambridge


Dan Plesch

Author of The Beauty Queen’s Guide to World Peace

www.danplesch.net

www.amazon.com


AQ Objectives

Get Crusaders and Zionists out of Saudi Arabia & other Islamic areas

Unite the Umma-Overthrow Apostates

Repeat the triumphs of the C7th AD- defeating America


Conventional wisdomDownplays risks from those that dream of the C7th

•Downplays risks from

Bush and Sharon


Declaration of War 1996 “Today your brothers and sons, the sons of the

two Holy Places, have started their Jihad in the cause of Allah, to expel the occupying enemy out of the country of the two Holy places… in order to re-establish the greatness of this Ummah and to liberate its' occupied sanctities. …Due to the imbalance of power between our armed forces and the enemy forces, a suitable means of fighting must be adopted using fast moving light forces that work under complete secrecy. In other word to initiate a guerrilla warfare, where the sons of the nation, and not the military forces, take part in it.”


Questioning the Question?

Looking at how things look from the other side of the hill is simple good practice

But, it seems incredible to think about

Seems a disloyal question


A conundrum

US/UK say threat like WW2 or Cold War

US/UK routinely described scenarios for Soviet victory

We are offered no such analysis of AQ


Implications of not being able to look over the hill?

A systemic failure of organisational culture?

Why can’t we look Over the Hill?

Is there something nasty in our woodshed?


Empathy and Sympathy

Empathy is essential to understanding adversary

Do not confuse EMPATHY with SYMPATHY for aims, objectives, ideology


Today’s radical Islamists look back


Overcoming domination

Radical Islam sees the West in direct occupation or control of most of the Islamic worldA trend since 1600, accelerated in 1900sCorrupt elites, poverty and military repression seen as imposed by the West


What is AQ?

Corporation? Network?A Vanguard Party building mass supportManchester United supporters as a model of Radical Islam

Some professionalsSome fulltime marketing people

Many who dream of playingThey don’t need to be told when to

cheer


One Western Empire down…

Reagan and Thatcher themselves praised the Mujahideen for helping bring down Communism

Their role in destroying communism provides a powerful example of success to radical Islamists-not usually included in Western analysis of failure of modern Islam

Comparison to C7th USSR=Persia US=Byzantium


Al Qaeda’s cost benefit analysis

9/11 – sacrifice 4 or 5 special forces teams

$600 billion damage

Transform international political agenda

From Zero to Hero with large part of world population


AQ Cost/benefit analysis

Attacks in 3rd world.

Turkey

Indonesia

Kenya

Morocco

Tunisia

Obviously inhuman attacks on innocents; Also…..


3rd World attacksShow global reachAttack apostates and ChristiansDestroy decadent tourism in oceans of povertyForce withdrawal of Western flights, business, tourism, Further pressure economy of apostatesBegin to create destabilised societies more open to support AQ ideology


Geo-strategic nature of AQ attacks

For cost of small special forces unitsAchieve strategic advance in key countries: Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, IraqCreate repressive environment in which

AQ can thrive and gain support


Troops Out?US forces have apparently left Saudi Arabia?

The blasphemy of their presence was the stated casus belli.

Withdrawal is a sign of victory and an indicator that more victories may come – though we might like to see it as a prudent and conciliatory measure

Saudi:-Guerrilla War/Civil War?


Summary of victories to date

9/11- Geostrategic economic and political success3rd World attacks drive out Western links, draw peoples towards AQ thinkingUS forced out of Saudi-Now Western staffUS/allies in two hard-to-win or no-win ground warsWest divided-will splits increase?Western relations with Turkey, Saudi, Iraq now far less stableAQ inside US/UK decision making – has initiative


Limitations

No Rising in the “Arab street”

Strong internal divisions in movements – Is Islam any more unified and fundamentalist than Christianity?

Strong distate for violent/puritanical/sectarian approach


Elements of Effective Strategy

British Army Doctrine—Kitson A check list Coordinate policy X Address Grievance X Keep to Rule of Law X Establish Good political climate X Strengthen home base X Deny enemy base X Build Good intelligence X Recognise there is no military solution X


Playing into AQ’s hands

Quantanamo/Abu Ghraib-abandoning Rule of Law-weakening legitimacyBad Political environment

endorsing repression of Islam globally-Israel/Phil/Indon/Uzb/

weakened alliance with Europe declining democratic participationNo secure base-AQ recruits and lives in WestPoor Intell and Intell co-operation


West marches into traps?Rumsfeld now says that Iraq and Afghanistan will be long, hard slogs. (George Marshall recommended the US not get into

a ground war in Asia)

Americans now looking vulnerable and being killed each day, Saddam fall a bonus, Wahhabism recruiting hard

50% of US forces pinned and hard to extract

New US Divisions take 3yrs to build and cost $1.8bn p.a


15 MEU crossing border

Moving Target Indication – night 20 Mar 03Moving Target Indication – night 20 Mar 03

High-Tech > Low-tech Warfare


Low tech IED


The opportunity now for the ‘Base’

The radicalisation of the Islamic public and the overthrow of the corrupt military regimes offers the prospect of crippling Western power.

<Landsat of Kuwait oil fires


Risk is Political Instability and Regime Change

The rise of a new generation of ‘Col Nassers’ with a strong religious motivation, born of the humiliation of the Muslim world is a spectre from Ankara to Jakarta


Brookings study

The worse case:

Partial cut off from Muslim suppliers

$75 per barrel

inflation up by 5%

The worst case:

Total cut off from Muslim suppliers

$161 per barrel

Inflation up 15%The War on Terrorism, the World Oil Market and the U.S. Economy, October 24, 2001 – George Perry, Senior Fellow, Economic Studies


Worst case template

The historical worst case battle is the battle of Cannae: Zulu tactic of bulls horns

1. Lure enemy onto your ground2. Pin his main forces3. Encircle and annihilate


A geostrategic Cannae on the West?

1. Lure enemy onto your ground The provocation of 9/11

2. Pin his main forces The response of repression Ground wars unwinnable

3. Encircle and annihilate Control/Cut off oil by controlling supplier states and

sabotaging choke points Gulf states, Indonesia, Libya, Sudan, Algeria – most major suppliers Islamic importers EU,US, Jap

Pak Nukes Repression/civil disorder in W Europe


Timing?

Likelihood is that ‘long hard slog’ means attackers will continue to have initiative

Additional perceived repressive acts will tend to increase support.

Any single regime change may have knock –on effects. civil war in Saudi.

copyright dan plesch 2004 could al qaeda win? dan plesch strategic studies course uk armed forces...

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