coral reefs: effects of climate change on the...coral reefs: effects of climate change on the uks...
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![Page 1: Coral Reefs: Effects of climate change on the...Coral Reefs: Effects of climate change on the UKs largest reef system Charles Sheppard 1. What are coral reefs? Built by corals](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060414/5f12cf05ae2df125f4220c3a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Coral Reefs: Effects of climate change on the UK’s largest reef system Charles Sheppard
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1. What are coral reefs?
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Built by corals
<1% of the ocean, 50% of marine
species
Many Nations are built of them entirely or in
part (including BIOT)
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Coral reefs feed about billion people
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They protect 1,000’s of miles of shoreline
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2. Britain’s greatest marine diversity is in the Chagos Archipelago (BIOT) What and where is it?
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Developing network of giant MPAs
BIOT was one of the six founding ‘Big Ocean Network’ members
Critical for numerous reasons to Indian Ocean generally:
Biologically
Economically
Aesthetically
For Indian Ocean people
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Effectively Lost Reefs (%)
Reefs at Critical Stage (%)
Reefs at Threatened Stage (%)
Reefs at Low Threat level (%)
What has been happening to reefs?
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Local disturbances:
•Sewage / nutrient runoff
•Overfishing (and destructive
fishing)
•Sedimentation
•Construction
disturbance
Why?
plus
The global triplet:
•Warming
•Acidification
•Sea level rise
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Let’s look at what caused it
0
10
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80
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
% c
ora
l co
ver
Year
Coral cover on ocean reefs, Chagos
5 m 10 m
15 m 20 m
25 m
Dashed lines initially because of the long interval: unlikely to have been smooth in reality
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-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Stan
dar
dis
ed D
ep
artu
re
Multivariate ENSO Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
% c
ora
l co
ver
Year
Coral cover on ocean reefs, Chagos
5 m 10 m
15 m 20 m
25 m
Dashed lines initially because of the long interval: unlikely to have been smooth in reality
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-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Stan
dar
dis
ed D
ep
artu
re
Multivariate ENSO Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
% c
ora
l co
ver
Year
Coral cover on ocean reefs, Chagos
5 m 10 m
15 m 20 m
25 m
Dashed lines initially because of the long interval: unlikely to have been smooth in reality
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
% c
ora
l co
ver
Year
Coral cover on ocean reefs, Chagos
5 m 10 m 15 m 20 m 25 m
Dashed lines initially because of the long interval: unlikely to have been smooth in reality
1979. Chagos was in great condition
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
% c
ora
l co
ver
Year
Coral cover on ocean reefs, Chagos
5 m 10 m 15 m 20 m 25 m
Dashed lines initially because of the long interval: unlikely to have been smooth in reality
1996. Shortly before the wipe-out
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1999. Immediately after the first observed mortality
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
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80
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
% c
ora
l co
ver
Year
Coral cover on ocean reefs, Chagos
5 m 10 m 15 m 20 m 25 m
Dashed lines initially because of the long interval: unlikely to have been smooth in reality
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2001. 3 years after 1998 mortality
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
% c
ora
l co
ver
Year
Coral cover on ocean reefs, Chagos
5 m 10 m 15 m 20 m 25 m
Dashed lines initially because of the long interval: unlikely to have been smooth in reality
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
% c
ora
l co
ver
Year
Coral cover on ocean reefs, Chagos
5 m 10 m 15 m 20 m 25 m
Dashed lines initially because of the long interval: unlikely to have been smooth in reality
2006. April. Recovery well underway
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
% c
ora
l co
ver
Year
Coral cover on ocean reefs, Chagos
5 m 10 m 15 m 20 m 25 m
Dashed lines initially because of the long interval: unlikely to have been smooth in reality
2012. April. Healthy reef again
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2015. April. Warm… not yet critical
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
% c
ora
l co
ver
Year
Coral cover on ocean reefs, Chagos
5 m 10 m 15 m 20 m 25 m
Dashed lines initially because of the long interval: unlikely to have been smooth in reality
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
% c
ora
l co
ver
Year
Coral cover on ocean reefs, Chagos
5 m 10 m 15 m 20 m 25 m
Dashed lines initially because of the long interval: unlikely to have been smooth in reality
2015. May. Bleaching started
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2017. April. Massive mortality
0
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20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
% c
ora
l co
ver
Year
Coral cover on ocean reefs, Chagos
5 m 10 m 15 m 20 m 25 m
Dashed lines initially because of the long interval: unlikely to have been smooth in reality
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Another strong climate change indicator is rainfall:
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
mm
rai
n p
er y
ear
Total annual rain in Diego Garcia
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Ch
ange
in r
ain
fall
mm
Month
Diego Garcia, change in monthly rainfall 1950-2016
Significance goes beyond local events Rising rainfall here = decreasing rain in Africa = increased food shortages Some of the best data sets come from BIOT
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Significance of this reef story: • Britain’s most diverse marine system, which is of global consequence, is in trouble
• It is used to see how a reef really works, without local impacts
• Fills huge global hole for climate system monitoring
• Insurance policy for the Indian Ocean
• Predictions?
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Major funding (chronologically): UK Gov: BIOT, MoD, OTEP, ODA, FCO, DFiD, DEFRA, US Navy, Bertarelli Foundation. Data: Charles Sheppard, Anne Sheppard, 2016 coral cover data: Dr Ronan Roche Video 2015: Living Oceans Foundation Photos, video 2017: Anne Sheppard
Summarised from: Sheppard C, Sheppard A, Mogg A, Bayley D, Dempsey A, Roche R, Turner J, Purkis S. 2017. Coral Bleaching and mortality in the Chagos Archipelago. Atoll Research Bulletin 613: 1-28.