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Corn Market Outlook
Todd Hubbs
Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics
University of Illinois
U.S. Corn Supply and Use2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 USDA
Estimate2019/20 USDA
Forecast
Area Planted (mil. Acres) 90.6 88 94.0 90.2 89.1 90.0
Area Harvested (mil. Acres) 83.1 80.8 86.7 82.7 81.7 82.0
Yield (Bu./acre) 171 168.4 174.6 176.6 176.4 169.5
Production (mil. Bu.) 14,216 13,602 15,148 14,609 14,420 13,901
Imports (mil. Bu.) 32 67 57 36 30 50
Total Supply (mil. Bu.) 15,479 15,401 16,942 16,939 16,590 16,311
Feed and Residual (mil. Bu.) 5,284 5,113 5,470 5,304 5,275 5,175
Food, Seed, and Industrial (mil. Bu.) 6,601 6,643 6,885 7,056 6,855 6,905
Ethanol (mil. Bu.) 5,200 5,224 5,432 5,605 5,425 5,475
Exports (mil. Bu.) 1,867 1,901 2,294 2,438 2,100 2,050
Total Use (mil. Bu.) 13,748 13,664 14,649 14,799 14,230 14,130
Ending Stocks (mil. Bu.) 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,140 2,360 2,181
Season Average Price ($ per Bu.) $3.70 $3.61 $3.36 $3.36 $3.60 $3.60
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu Data: WASDE
Corn Production
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
12.4 12.3
10.8
13.814.2
13.6
15.1
14.614.4
13.9
2.3
2.93.2 3.1
3.3
2.6
3.9
3.2
4.0 4.0
1.0 0.81.1 1.0 1.2 1.2
1.61.3
2.0 2.0
0.50.9 0.8
1.2 1.10.9 1.1 0.9
1.4 1.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20
Bill
ion
of
Bu
she
ls
United States Brazil Argentina UkraineData: NASS
U.S. Feed and Residual Use and Grain Consuming Animal Units
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
80
85
90
95
100
105
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Millio
n A
nim
al U
nitsM
illi
on
s o
f B
us
he
ls
Feed and Residual Use Grains Consuming Animal Units
Data: NASS
U.S. Corn Used for Ethanol
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
630707
9961,168
1,323
1,603
2,119
3,049
3,709
4,591
5,019 5,000
4,641
5,1245,200 5,224
5,432
5,605
5,425 5,475
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Mill
ion
s o
f B
ush
els
Data: WASDE
U.S Ethanol Exports by Marketing Year
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu Data: EIA * Through June
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
World Brazil Canada China India South Korea Mexico Netherlands Peru Phillippines
Mill
ion
s o
f G
allo
ns
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19*
U.S. Corn Exports
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
2,134 2,125
2,437
1,849
1,979
1,831
1,539
730
1,9211,867 1,899
2,294
2,438
2,1002,050
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20
Mil
lio
ns
of
Bu
sh
els
World Mexico Japan South Korea Columbia
Data: FAS GATS
Corn Total Commitments through July 18: Last Two Marketing Years
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu Data: FAS Export Sales
0.0, EU-27
500.0, Japan
76.0, Taiwan
18.9, China
145.5, S. Korea
20.9, Egypt
184.2, Columbia
610.7, Mexico
78.4, Peru
331.0, All Others and Unkown
2018-19 TOTAL COMMITMENTS THROUGH AUGUST 1 (MILLIONS OF BUSHELS)
World Total Commitments = 1,966 million bushels
75.5, EU-27
452.7, Japan
95.8, Taiwan
20.3, China
229.8, S. Korea
47.0, Egypt
183.6, Columbia
596.9, Mexico
125.9, Peru
531.4, All Others and Unkown
2017-18 TOTAL COMMITMENTS THROUGH AUGUST 1 (MILLIONS OF BUSHELS)
World Total Commitments = 2,359 million bushels
U.S. Corn Stocks to Use Ratio and Average Farm Price
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20
Do
llars
pe
r Bu
sh
el
Pe
rce
nt
Corn Stocks to Use Ratio Weighted Avg. Farm Price
Data: WASDE
y = 1.8749t + 59.275R² = 0.9079
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
bu
. pe
r a
c.
Data: NASS
U.S. Average Corn Yield
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
Corn Yield by State Aug. 1, 2019 Bushels and Change from Previous Year
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
0.8
10.2
-15.3
10.2
-12.1
8.4
1.7
4.4
-0.9
-4.8
4.3 4.8
2.3
11.5
8.7
-3.1-1.7 -1.1
5.7
-12.2
-5.8
0.0
4.43.6
-0.4 -0.5
7.1
-2.0
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
bu
. p
er
ac.
Final U.S. Corn Yield Estimate Minus August Forecast
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
100,000
tho
usan
ds
Planted
Harvested
Data: NASS
Planted and Harvested Acreage of Corn
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
2019 Corn Planted Area
(000) Acres and Change from Previous Year
90 Mil. Acres of Corn Planted in U.S. in 2019
Up 0.9 Mil. Acres from 2018
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
Corn Balance Sheet
2018-19
USDA
Forecast
2018-19
Forecast
2019-20
USDA
Forecast
2019-20
Forecast High
Yield
2019-20
Forecast
Lower Yield
Supply: Planted Acreage (mill. Ac.) 89.1 89.1 90.0 90.0 90.0
Harvested Acreage (mill. Ac.) 81.7 81.7 82.0 82.0 82.0
Yield (Bu. / Ac.) 176.4 176.4 169.5 166 160
Total Production(mill. Bu.) 14,420 14,420 13,901 13,612 13,120
Beginning Stocks(mill. Bu.) 2,140 2,140 2,360 2,400 2,400
Imports (mill. Bu.) 30 30 50 50 50
Total Supply (mill. Bu.) 16,590 16,590 16,311 16,062 15,570
Consumption: Feed and Residual (mill. Bu.) 5,275 5,275 5,175 5,175 5,140
Food, Seed, and Industrial (mill. Bu.) 6,855 6,855 6,905 6,880 6,880
Ethanol (mill. Bu.) 5,425 5,425 5,475 5,450 5,450
Exports (mill. Bu.) 2,100 2,060 2,050 2,010 1,975
Total Consumption (mill. Bu.) 14,230 14,190 14,130 14,065 13,995
Ending Stocks (mill. Bu.) 2,360 2,400 2,181 1,997 1,575Stocks-to-Use 16.6% 16.9% 15.4% 14.1% 11.2%
Average Price ($/bu.) $3.60 $3.60 $3.60 $3.85 $4.25
Monthly Corn Price Index for Comparable Years
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Ind
ex
on
Ma
y P
revio
us
MY
1993-94 1995-96
1993: Carry In 2.11 Billion Bushels; Stocks/Use 92/93 = 25%
93/94 Stocks/Use ended at 11.1%
1995: Carry In 1.56 Billion Bushels; Stocks/Use 94/95 = 16.6%
95/96 Stocks/Use ended at 5%
2019: May U.S. Avg. Corn Price = $3.63
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
Illinois Monthly Average Corn Price
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
Jan
-60
Mar
-61
May
-62
Jul-
63
Sep
-64
No
v-6
5
Jan
-67
Mar
-68
May
-69
Jul-
70
Sep
-71
No
v-7
2
Jan
-74
Mar
-75
May
-76
Jul-
77
Sep
-78
No
v-7
9
Jan
-81
Mar
-82
May
-83
Jul-
84
Sep
-85
No
v-8
6
Jan
-88
Mar
-89
May
-90
Jul-
91
Sep
-92
No
v-9
3
Jan
-95
Mar
-96
May
-97
Jul-
98
Sep
-99
No
v-0
0
Jan
-02
Mar
-03
May
-04
Jul-
05
Sep
-06
No
v-0
7
Jan
-09
Mar
-10
May
-11
Jul-
12
Sep
-13
No
v-14
Jan
-16
Mar
-17
May
-18
Do
llars
pe
r B
ush
el
Mean Price: $4.36Standard Deviation 29% of the mean
Mean Price: $1.14Standard deviation 12% of mean
Mean Price: $2.44Standard Deviation 20% of mean
•Thank You
•Questions?