correlation and dispersion in a portfolio context - cboe · why and how dispersion plays a...
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For Financial Professionals. Not for Public Distribution. PROPRIETARY. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of S&P Dow Jones Indices. 1
Why and how dispersion plays a fundamental role in portfolio, active and index returns.
CORRELATION AND DISPERSION IN A PORTFOLIO CONTEXT
For Financial Professionals. Not for Public Distribution. PROPRIETARY. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of S&P Dow Jones Indices.
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
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115%
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125%
130%
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-Se
p-0
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Pri
ce R
etu
rn
Dow Jones Industrial Average -October 2001
2
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
DJIA Individual Components
T
WHAT DOES DISPERSION LOOK LIKE?
MCD
INTC
MSFT
MSFT MCD
INTC
T
CAT
CAT
+3% DJIA
+3% DJIA
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Dispersion measures the spread of performances among components of an index (or portfolio)
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
125%
130%
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-No
v-1
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03
-De
c-1
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c-1
3
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c-1
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-De
c-1
3
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-De
c-1
3
27
-De
c-1
3
31
-De
c-1
3
... and December 2013
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KEY CONCEPT: “SPREAD” OF RETURNS
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
125%
130%
29
-No
v-1
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-De
c-1
3
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-De
c-1
3
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-De
c-1
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c-1
3
23
-De
c-1
3
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-De
c-1
3
31
-De
c-1
3
December 2013
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
125%
130%
28
-Se
p-
01
02
-Oct
-01
06
-Oct
-01
10
-Oct
-01
14
-Oct
-01
18
-Oct
-01
22
-Oct
-01
26
-Oct
-01
30
-Oct
-01
Pri
ce R
etu
rn
October 2001
-21% -15% -9% -3% 3% 9% 15% 21%
V
XOM
AXP
MMM
KO
HD
UNH
TRV
VZ
JNJ
-21% -15% -9% -3% 3% 9% 15% 21%
INTC
C
HPQ
AA
JPM
PG
XOM
CAT
MTLQQ
MRK
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For Financial Professionals. Not for Public Distribution. PROPRIETARY. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of S&P Dow Jones Indices.
0% 6% 12% 18% 24% 30% 36% 42%
INTC
MSFT
HD
HPQ
JNJ
EK
JPM
KO
AXP
XOM
IBM
HON
MTLQQ
MCD
T
Difference from Index (%)
-21% -15% -9% -3% 3% 9% 15% 21%
INTC
MSFT
HD
HPQ
JNJ
EK
JPM
KO
AXP
XOM
IBM
HON
MTLQQ
MCD
T
Change (%)
HOW IS DISPERSION DEFINED?
4
Standard-deviation style calculation: “square-root of average of squared difference to mean”
It = 𝑤𝑖𝑅𝑖,𝑡𝑖
Weighted average return =It Payoff on straddles, struck at It
𝑅𝑖,𝑡 − 𝐼𝑡2 𝑅𝑖,𝑡
𝑤𝑖 𝑅𝑖,𝑡 − 𝐼𝑡2
𝑛
𝑖=1
Dispersion
= 8%
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Example: October 2001, DJIA
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DISPERSION - SUMMARY
5
The outperformance potential for active management
The magnitude of diversification benefit achieved
An instantaneous measure of correlation
A component of the returns from portfolio rebalancing
A tradable aspect of capital markets
Conceptually
Computationally
The statistical “spread” of returns among securities
= 𝑤𝑖 𝑅𝑖,𝑡 − 𝐼𝑡2
𝑛
𝑖=1
Practically
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EXAMPLE: S&P 500® MONTHLY DISPERSION 1989-2014
6
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%O
ct-
89
Oct-
90
Oct-
91
Oct-
92
Oct-
93
Oct-
94
Oct-
95
Oct-
96
Oct-
97
Oct-
98
Oct-
99
Oct-
00
Oct-
01
Oct-
02
Oct-
03
Oct-
04
Oct-
05
Oct-
06
Oct-
07
Oct-
08
Oct-
09
Oct-
10
Oct-
11
Oct-
12
Oct-
13
S&
P 5
00
Mo
nth
ly S
&P
500 D
isp
ers
ion
Dispersion
S&P 500®
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For Financial Professionals. Not for Public Distribution. PROPRIETARY. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of S&P Dow Jones Indices.
0
15
30
45
60
75
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%Jan
-90
Jan
-91
Jan
-92
Jan
-93
Jan
-94
Jan
-95
Jan-9
6
Jan
-97
Jan
-98
Jan
-99
Jan
-00
Jan
-01
Jan
-02
Jan
-03
Jan
-04
Jan
-05
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan-1
3
Jan
-14
VIX
Mo
nth
ly S
&P
500 D
isp
ers
ion
7
Dispersion
VIX®
DISPERSION IS DIFFERENT - BUT CORRELATED - TO VOLATILITY
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For Financial Professionals. Not for Public Distribution. PROPRIETARY. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of S&P Dow Jones Indices. 8
Dispersion is similar to volatility in several respects:
Both measures of standard deviation in price changes, capturing the degree of movement within a market over a specified time period or periods
Volatile, and highly correlated to each other
Historically persistent in the short term
Historically mean-reverting in the long term
But with a few, potentially important differences
High volatility and lower dispersion: for example in the macro-led markets of August 2011
High dispersion and lower volatility: for example during the formation and collapse of the tech-bubble during 1998-2001
Volatility requires a time series for measurement and speaks to a single security or portfolio, whereas dispersion is a cross-sectional measure, over a single period, for multiple securities
(As we shall see) Dispersion is ultimately a particular combination of volatility and correlation
A FEW OBSERVATIONS FROM HISTORY
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SECTION 2: APPLICATIONS OF DISPERSION
• Opportunity set for active management
• Measure of portfolio diversification
• Instantaneous approximation to correlation, completing an analytical ‘recipe’ for volatility
• Factor in determining the rebalancing ‘bonus’
For Financial Professionals. Not for Public Distribution. PROPRIETARY. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of S&P Dow Jones Indices.
THE OPPORTUNITY SET FOR ACTIVE RETURNS (1)
10
Dispersion is a measure of “idiosyncratic” risk that quantifies the impact of security selection
The phrase “stock-picker’s market” is frequently heard, typically without precise definition.
Low correlation is equated with the opportunities for active managers, but in our view incorrectly
• e.g. 2013-2014 developed equities: no correlation, yet indifferent alpha opportunities.
Return available from security selection and weighting is more naturally associated with dispersion
When dispersion is high, decisions have a greater impact
• Measure of importance e.g. country versus sector importance in international markets.
When dispersion is low, the stakes at the table are lower (operational costs / fees may not be similarly reduced)
c = -1.00
c = +1.00
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. See Edwards & Lazzara ; “Dispersion: Measuring Market Opportunity” (2013) for more details and additional references. Past performance is
no guarantee of future results.
For Financial Professionals. Not for Public Distribution. PROPRIETARY. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of S&P Dow Jones Indices.
EXHIBIT: U.S. EQUITY MANAGERS & DISPERSION
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices’ SPIVA scorecards (“S&P Index Versus Active”). Data for 2007 are to March end; all other years are full calendar years. Charts are provided for
illustrative purposes. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Annual Interquartile Range of U.S. Large-Cap Active Funds vs. S&P 500 Average Monthly Dispersion
“Good” managers performed better in relative terms when dispersion was high
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Per
cen
t
Performance Spread: top quartile to bottom quartile funds S&P 500 average monthly dispersion
For Financial Professionals. Not for Public Distribution. PROPRIETARY. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of S&P Dow Jones Indices.
EXHIBIT: OUTPERFORMING FUND LIKELIHOOD AND DISPERSION
12
Percentage of Active Funds outperforming the market versus S&P 500 Average Monthly Dispersion (Selected years highlighted)
High (or low) dispersion did not seem to influence the probability of the average manager outperforming
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Per
cen
t
Percentage of managers outperforming the S&P 500 S&P 500 average monthly dispersion (previous scale)
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices’ SPIVA scorecards (“S&P Index Versus Active”). Data for 2007 are to March end; all other years are full calendar years. Charts are provided for
illustrative purposes. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For Financial Professionals. Not for Public Distribution. PROPRIETARY. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of S&P Dow Jones Indices.
THE OPPORTUNITY SET FOR ACTIVE RETURNS (2)
13
Evidence suggests that opportunities might be presented subsequent to periods of high dispersion
Intuitive expectation that high dispersion creates arbitrage opportunities:
• In periods of large and widespread price dislocations (high dispersion), professional investors identify “mispricings”; and subsequently benefit at “return to normality” (lower dispersion).
Various studies have identified that subsequent to periods of high dispersion, certain common strategies
are more likely to outperform; similarly for certain hedge fund styles.
Stivers et al ; Cross-sectional Return Dispersion and the Payoffs of Momentum, Longer-run Contrarian, and Book-to-Market Strategies (2008)
• Value and contrarian strategies perform well subsequent to high dispersion periods, poorly subsequent to low dispersion periods.
• Momentum and growth strategies conversely.
Connors & Li ; Market Dispersion and the Profitability of Hedge Funds (2009)
• One of several studies identifying and positively correlating the excess performance achieved by hedge fund strategies coincident (and subsequent to) changes in dispersion regimes.
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EXHIBIT: EQUAL-WEIGHT U.S. EQUITIES RELATIVE PERFORMANCE
Even equally-weighted indices showed an improved performance subsequent to periods extreme dispersion
S&P 500 Dispersion and outperformance of the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index vs S&P 500 (1990 – 2014)
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Eq
ual
Wei
gh
t O
utp
erfo
rman
ce o
f S
&P
500
Ave
rag
e la
st 6
mo
nts
S&
P50
0 d
isp
ersi
on
Equal Weight Outperformance (next 12 months)
S&P 500 Monthly Dispersion (previous 6 months)
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. Index performance shown is relative total return in USD. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For Financial Professionals. Not for Public Distribution. PROPRIETARY. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of S&P Dow Jones Indices.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Dec-9
6
Dec-9
7
Dec-9
8
Dec-9
9
Dec-0
0
De
c-0
1
Dec-0
2
Dec-0
3
Dec-0
4
De
c-0
5
Dec-0
6
Dec-0
7
Dec-0
8
Dec-0
9
Dec-1
0
Dec-1
1
Dec-1
2
Dec-1
3
DJIA volatility
Average Component Volatility
DISPERSION AND DIVERSIFICATION
15
Dispersion is naturally connected to the degree of “diversification” achieved by a portfolio
The dispersion calculation aggregates and averages all the absolute movements in securities that are cancelled out in the portfolio return: suggestive of a diversification measure.
In fact the relationship is empirically direct, once the single-period measure of dispersion is suitably averaged over time (to be compared to the multi-period measure of variance)
Diversification
benefit
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
Dec-9
6
Dec-9
7
Dec-9
8
Dec-9
9
Dec-0
0
Dec-0
1
Dec-0
2
Dec-0
3
Dec-0
4
Dec-0
5
Dec-0
6
Dec-0
7
Dec-0
8
Dec-0
9
Dec-1
0
Dec-1
1
Dec-1
2
Dec-1
3
Average Component Variance
𝒗𝟐 + 𝒅𝟐
For Financial Professionals. Not for Public Distribution. PROPRIETARY. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of S&P Dow Jones Indices.
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
Jan-
04
Jan-
05
Jan-
06
Jan-
07
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
13
Average Monthly S&P 500 Pairwise Correlation
DISPERSION, VOLATILITY AND CORRELATION
16
Pairwise they are related, as a triple they are strictly defined in combinations
𝑣2
𝑣2+𝑑2
v = portfolio volatility
F = (weighted) component volatility
c = (weighted) average correlation
d2 = average of period dispersion2
Familiar concept: average correlation is the proportion of total risk accounted for by portfolio risk, or approximately:
𝑐 ≈ 𝑣2 𝐹2
and since 𝐹2 ≈ 𝑣2 + 𝑑2, correlation is:
𝑣2
𝑣2+𝑑2
NOTE: 𝑣 and 𝑑 are simple to calculate with instantaneous interpretations in (e.g.) VIX and dispersion!
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. See Edwards & Lazzara ; “At the Intersection of Diversification, Volatility and Correlation” (2014) for more details and additional references.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
𝑐 ≈
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Val
ue
of
Co
rrel
atio
n M
ult
iplie
r
Correlation
CONSEQUENCES OF THE DISPERSION RELATION
17
Nuanced perspectives on volatility are provided by the relationship to dispersion and correlation
The equation can be also be re-arranged with (market) volatility as the subject:
𝑣2 ≈ 𝑑2 × 𝑐1−𝑐
Conceptually: market volatility is driven by dispersion, amplified or diluted by correlations
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
Co
rrel
atio
n
Dispersion
10% vol
20% vol
30% vol
40% vol
50% vol
60% vol
70% vol
80% vol
90% vol
100% vol
𝑐
1 − 𝑐
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. Formulae and charts represent models of securities behavior only, actual performance may differ significantly.
For Financial Professionals. Not for Public Distribution. PROPRIETARY. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of S&P Dow Jones Indices.
DISPERSION AND PORTFOLIO REBALANCING
18
The benefit (or detriment) to frequent portfolio balancing relates to long and short-term dispersion
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices ; Bernstein and Wilkinson, “Diversification, Rebalancing and the Geometric Mean Frontier” Research Manuscript (1997) ; Monnier and Rulik,
“Can The Rebalancing Bonus Enhance Beta Return?” Journal of Indices (2013). Formulae represent models of securities behavior only, actual performance may differ
significantly.
The effect on returns of portfolio rebalancing over multiple periods is a balance between:
The long-term benefit from diversification (recall the effect of volatility on geometric returns), which can be derived from the period dispersions.
The long-term cost of de-allocating from the most positive performer (in the long term, any un-rebalanced portfolio is dominated by the best-performing asset).
Formally, the return from rebalancing can be expressed as:
𝑹𝒆𝒕𝒖𝒓𝒏 𝒇𝒓𝒐𝒎 𝒓𝒆𝒃𝒂𝒍𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒊𝒏𝒈 ≈ 𝒅𝟐 − ∅
Where d2 = average of period dispersion2 and ∅ is a function of the spread of longer term returns.
In equal weight portfolios, the additional return from rebalancing is well approximated by full-period dispersion:
𝑬𝑸𝑾 𝑹𝒆𝒕𝒖𝒓𝒏 𝒇𝒓𝒐𝒎 𝒓𝒆𝒃𝒂𝒍𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒊𝒏𝒈 ≈ 𝒅𝟐 − (𝑵 − 𝟏)
𝟐𝒆𝟐
Where 𝒆 is the dispersion of average annual returns among components and 𝑵 is the number of periods.
For Financial Professionals. Not for Public Distribution. PROPRIETARY. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of S&P Dow Jones Indices.
CURRENT DISPERSION ENVIRONMENT (JULY 2014)
19
Currently in an environment of relatively low dispersion; higher (as usual) in EM and small caps
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices as of July 2014. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The Multi-Asset Portfolio comprises equal weights in each of: the S&P 500,
S&P Europe 350, S&P Emerging Market BMI, S&P GSCI®, S&P TOPIX 150, Barclays Aggregate U.S. Corporate High Yield, Barclays Aggregate U.S. Bond and S&P / Citigroup
International Treasury Bond Ex-US Indices. All returns are total returns in USD unhedged.
4.9%
6.3%7.4%
5.2%5.7%
8.2%
2.4%0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
S&P 500S&P MidCap
400S&P SmallCap
600S&P Europe
350
S&P DevelopedEx-U.S.
LargeMidCapS&P Emerging
Market BMI Multi-Asset
Mo
nth
ly D
isp
ersi
on
Quartile Range 90th Percentile Jul-14 Min
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DISPERSION AND IDIOSYNCRATIC RISK
20
Can periods of high dispersion support the identification of bubbles?
-7%
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
Jan
19
91
Oct
19
91
Jul 1
992
Ap
r 19
93
Jan
19
94
Oct
19
94
Jul 1
995
Ap
r 19
96
Jan
19
97
Oct
19
97
Jul 1
998
Ap
r 19
99
Jan
20
00
Oct
20
00
Jul 2
001
Ap
r 20
02
Jan
20
03
Oct
20
03
Jul 2
004
Ap
r 20
05
Jan
20
06
Oct
20
06
Jul 2
007
Ap
r 20
08
Jan
20
09
Oct
20
09
Jul 2
010
Ap
r 20
11
Jan
20
12
Oct
20
12
Jul 2
013
Excess Dispersion mean 1 std above mean 1 std below mean 2 std above mean 2 std below mean
Monthly Dispersion Relative to VIX: Jan 1991 - Jan 2014
tech 'bubble' end Aug 2000
Exce
ss
Dis
per
sio
n
market low end Sep 2002
Market peak end Oct 2007
market low end Feb 2009
equ
ity cau
tion
equ
ity co
nfid
ence
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, CBOE, U.K. National Employment Savings Trust and Birmingham University. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
(With acknowledgements to Paul Cox of NEST) S&P 500 monthly dispersion strongly in excess of implied volatility (VIX) has historically pre-empted severe market stresses
For Financial Professionals. Not for Public Distribution. PROPRIETARY. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of S&P Dow Jones Indices.
PERFORMANCE DISCLOSURE
21
The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (the “Index”) was launched on Jan. 9, 2003. All information presented prior to the launch date is back-tested. Back-tested performance is not
actual performance, but is hypothetical. The back-test calculations are based on the same methodology that was in effect when the index was officially launched. Complete index
methodology details are available at www.spdji.com. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
S&P Dow Jones Indices defines various dates to assist our clients in providing transparency on their products. The First Value Date is the first day for which there is a calculated
value (either live or back-tested) for a given index. The Base Date is the date at which the Index is set at a fixed value for calculation purposes. The Launch Date designates the
date upon which the values of an index are first considered live: index values provided for any date or time period prior to the index’s Launch Date are considered back-tested. S&P
Dow Jones Indices defines the Launch Date as the date by which the values of an index are known to have been released to the public, for example via the company’s public
website or its datafeed to external parties. For Dow Jones-branded indicates introduced prior to May 31, 2013, the Launch Date (which prior to May 31, 2013, was termed “Date of
introduction”) is set at a date upon which no further changes were permitted to be made to the index methodology, but that may have been prior to the Index’s public release date.
Past performance of the Index is not an indication of future results. Prospective application of the methodology used to construct the Index may not result in performance
commensurate with the back-test returns shown. The back-test period does not necessarily correspond to the entire available history of the Index. Please refer to the methodology
paper for the Index, available at www.spdji.com for more details about the index, including the manner in which it is rebalanced, the timing of such rebalancing, criteria for additions
and deletions, as well as all index calculations.
Another limitation of using back-tested information is that the back-tested calculation is generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. Back-tested information reflects the
application of the index methodology and selection of index constituents in hindsight. No hypothetical record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading.
For example, there are numerous factors related to the equities, fixed income, or commodities markets in general which cannot be, and have not been accounted for in the
preparation of the index information set forth, all of which can affect actual performance.
The Index returns shown do not represent the results of actual trading of investable assets/securities. S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC maintains the Index and calculates the Index
levels and performance shown or discussed, but does not manage actual assets. Index returns do not reflect payment of any sales charges or fees an investor may pay to
purchase the securities underlying the Index or investment funds that are intended to track the performance of the Index. The imposition of these fees and charges would cause
actual and back-tested performance of the securities/fund to be lower than the Index performance shown. As a simple example, if an index returned 10% on a US $100,000
investment for a 12-month period (or US $10,000) and an actual asset-based fee of 1.5% was imposed at the end of the period on the investment plus accrued interest (or US
$1,650), the net return would be 8.35% (or US $8,350) for the year. Over a three year period, an annual 1.5% fee taken at year end with an assumed 10% return per year would
result in a cumulative gross return of 33.10%, a total fee of US $5,375, and a cumulative net return of 27.2% (or US $27,200).
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THANK YOU
Tim Edwards