cosmo-leps verification son 2004 precipitation new suite chiara marsigli arpa-sim – wg4
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COSMO-LEPS verification
SON 2004 precipitationnew suite
Chiara Marsigli ARPA-SIM – WG4
The COSMO-LEPS suite since June 2004
d-1d-1 dd d+5d+5d+1d+1 d+2d+2 d+4d+4d+3d+3
middle EPSmiddle EPS
youngest EPSyoungest EPS
clustering clustering periodperiod
0000
1212
Cluster Analysis and RM identificationCluster Analysis and RM identification
4 variables4 variables
Z U V QZ U V Q
3 levels3 levels
500 700 850 hPa500 700 850 hPa
2 2 time time stepssteps
Cluster Analysis and RM identificationCluster Analysis and RM identification
European European areaarea
Complete Complete LinkageLinkage
COSMO-LEPS
Integration Domain
10 Representative 10 Representative Members driving the Members driving the
10 Lokal Modell 10 Lokal Modell integrations integrations
(weighted according (weighted according to the cluster to the cluster populations)populations)
employing either employing either Tiedtke or Kain-Tiedtke or Kain-
Fristch convection Fristch convection scheme (randomly scheme (randomly
choosen)choosen)
COSMO-LEPS
clustering area
• 10 km
• 32 layers
• 10 members
• 120 h
COSMO stations
Verification grid
Verification of the distributions
Station observation
Grid point forecast
The verification has been made in terms of:
• Average value
• Maximum value
• 50th percentile (Median)
• 90th percentile
in a box
COSMO-LEPS
10-MEMBER EPS
tp > 20mm/24h
tp > 10mm/24h
tp > 10mm/24h
tp > 20mm/24h
tp > 30mm/24h
Average values
boxes 1.5x1.5 deg
COSMO-LEPS
10-MEMBER EPS
Average values
boxes 1.5x1.5 deg
COSMO-LEPS
10-MEMBER EPS
50th percentile values
boxes 1.5x1.5 degtp > 10mm/24h
tp > 20mm/24h
tp > 10mm/24h
tp > 20mm/24h
tp > 30mm/24h
COSMO-LEPS
10-MEMBER EPS
50th percentile values
boxes 1.5x1.5 deg
COSMO-LEPS
10-MEMBER EPS
90th percentile values
boxes 1.5x1.5 degtp > 10mm/24h
tp > 20mm/24h
tp > 10mm/24h
tp > 20mm/24h
tp > 30mm/24h
COSMO-LEPS
10-MEMBER EPS
90th percentile values
boxes 1.5x1.5 deg
COSMO-LEPS
10-MEMBER EPS
tp > 20mm/24h
tp > 10mm/24h
tp > 10mm/24h
tp > 20mm/24h
tp > 30mm/24h
Maximum values
boxes 1.5x1.5 deg
COSMO-LEPS
10-MEMBER EPS
Maximum values
boxes 1.5x1.5 deg
FINE
C’era un errore sui dati polacchi (dati mancanti in un formato non previsto), l’ho corretto ed ho ricalcolato gli scores del valore medio per COSMO-LEPS e per EPS-10RM. Seguono I risultati per vedere l’impatto.
tp > 10mm/24h
tp > 20mm/24h
Average values
boxes 1.5x1.5 deg
tp > 20mm/24h
tp > 10mm/24h
COSMO-LEPS
10-MEMBER EPS
Con errore dati mancanti Polonia Senza errore dati mancanti Polonia
Average values
boxes 1.5x1.5 deg
COSMO-LEPS
10-MEMBER EPS
Con errore dati mancanti Polonia Senza errore dati mancanti Polonia
tp > 10mm/24h
tp > 20mm/24h
tp > 10mm/24h
tp > 20mm/24h
Average values
boxes 1.5x1.5 deg
COSMO-LEPS
10-MEMBER EPS
Con errore dati mancanti Polonia Senza errore dati mancanti Polonia
tp > 30mm/24htp > 30mm/24h
N.B.: senza errore sui dati gli scores del valore medio (gli unici ricalcolati) complessivamente migliorano un po’, per entrambi i sistemi. La differenza di score tra i due sistemi rimane pero’ generalemente la stessa (aumenta un po’ per la ROC area a 30 mm)
Average and maxima
Average and maxima