cost-effectiveness of adaptation options within the integrated assessment platform climate change...
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Cost-effectiveness of adaptation options within the Integrated Assessment Platform
Climate change integrated assessment methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and
vulnerability in Europe
For further information contact Rob Tinch (email: [email protected]) or Michalis Skourtos (email: [email protected]) or visit the project website (www.climsave.eu)
Funded under the European CommissionSeventh Framework Programme
Contract Number: 244031
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
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Cost-effectiveness
• Options for adaptation and mitigation have: – Different costs to carry out;– Different direct effects;– Different incidental / cross-sectoral effects.
• Mitigation: clear unit of account: – compare options on € per tonne of CO2e.
• Adaptation: no similar unit:– challenge to compare options within and especially between
sectors.
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
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Adaptation in CLIMSAVE
• Adaptation modelled via sliders:
– each slider represents combined effects of multiple possible measures;
– options from stakeholder consultation and literature evidence;
– mix of ‘hard’ engineering options and ‘soft’ behavioural options.
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
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Adaptation option features to identify
• Need to summarise key aspects of adaptation options:
– Costs to implement the option;
– Effectiveness/potential to influence slider;
– Uncertainty about costs/effectiveness;
– Impacts on other sectors;
– Capital requirements / limiting factors.
• Need information at the scale of the Integrated Assessment Platform:
– Geographical: Europe or Scotland
– Social/technical: as important parts of adaptation policy
Limiting capital for the implementation and efficacy
of a measure (from dark green for very high capital availability to red for very
low)
Qualitative assessment of the cost of implementation of a measure across a sector
Qualitative assessment of the potential contribution the
measure could make to overall effective adaptation in a sector
Cost-effectiveness screen
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
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Information sources
• Limited research in this area
• Database of adaptation cost studies
• Stakeholder consultation on options and effectiveness
• Expert judgement:– Sectoral expertise on costs and effects;– Knowledge of how sliders interact with Integrated
Assessment Platform;– CrossAdapt tool for cross-sectoral impacts.
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
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Database of adaptation costs
• Extensive database developed for CLIMSAVE:– hundreds of published studies;– global scope;– assessment of variability in costs.
• Informs qualitative assessments at the scale of the Integrated Assessment Platform.
• Future resource for deeper quantitative analysis of specific local options.
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
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Development of ‘soft’ options
• Stakeholder workshops: – long lists of adaptation options produced by stakeholders for
each of the CLIMSAVE socio-economic scenarios;– adaptation options were scenario-dependent;– estimated capital levels for each scenario;– limiting capitals for adaptation options.
• Refined via expert judgement:– linking options to Integrated Assessment Platform sliders;– qualitative classification of costs, effectiveness and
uncertainty.
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
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CrossAdapt
• Analytical tool for eliciting expert views on cross-sectoral impacts:– direction of impact (positive/negative);– intensity of impact on secondary sectors (expressed as
proportion of option cost).
• Varying divergence of views:– classification of uncertainty/ambiguity.
• Useful for qualitative understanding of cross-sectoral impacts.
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
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CrossAdapt
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
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w.C
LIM
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.eu
Conclusions
• Costs, effects, cost/effect uncertainty , cross-sectoral impacts:– Estimated in qualitative terms;– Monetary detail impossible at the scale of the IA Platform;– Functions of local physical, social, governance and economic
conditions.
• Platform aid to strategic thinking about generic costs/effects of adaptation strategy:‒ Specific projects/policies require further analysis.