costs and potentials of chp and dsm ragwitz isi (green-x... · 2016. 4. 20. · project workshop...
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Project Workshop Green-X Renewable Energy House, September 23rd 2003, Brussels Green-X
Mario RagwitzFraunhofer-ISI
Costs and potentials of CHP and DSMCosts and potentials of CHP and DSM
Project Workshop Green-X Renewable Energy House, September 23rd 2003, Brussels Green-X
Potentials and costs of CHP and DSM for Potentials and costs of CHP and DSM for GHG reductionGHG reduction
! CHP and DSM offer large, cost efficient potentials for GHG reduction in the EU-15
! CHP and DSM belong to the most complex input variables of the model Green-X because a large number of sectors, sub-sectors and technologies have to be considered
! A number of new technologies might become cost effective by 2020, e.g. fuel cells
! Especially potentials in different sectors are highly country specific
Project Workshop Green-X Renewable Energy House, September 23rd 2003, Brussels Green-X
CHP Potential by country for 2020CHP Potential by country for 2020
0
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60000
AT BE DK FIN FR GE GRE IRL ITA LUX NL POR SP SWE UK
Inst
alle
d ca
paci
ty [M
W]
Source: Future Cogen
Project Workshop Green-X Renewable Energy House, September 23rd 2003, Brussels Green-X
CHP potential by sector for 2020CHP potential by sector for 2020
0%
20%
40%
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100%
AT BE DK FIN FR GE GRE IRL ITA LUX NL POR SP SWE UK
Maximum potential (installed capacity) CHP 2020
Industry > 50 MWIndustry 5-50 MWIndustry 1-5 MW commercial 1-5 MW commercial 100 kW-1 MWcommercial 15-100 kWdomestic < 15 kWdistrict heating systems
Source: Future Cogen
Project Workshop Green-X Renewable Energy House, September 23rd 2003, Brussels Green-X
CHP TechnologiesCHP Technologies• CC: Combined cycle (gas and steam turbine)
• CC-B Combined Cycle Backpressure
• ST: Steam turbine
• ST-B Steam turbine with backpressure
• GE: Gas engine
• GT: Gas turbine
• DE Diesel engine
• PEFC: Polymer electrolyte fuel cells
• PAFC: Phosphoric acid fuel cells
• MCFC: Molten carbonate fuel cells
• SOFC: Solid oxide fuel cells
In the industry, commercial and domestic sector
Project Workshop Green-X Renewable Energy House, September 23rd 2003, Brussels Green-X
CHP CHP -- efficienciesefficiencies
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1950
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1971
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2001
Year
effic
ienc
y el
ectr
icity
[%]
CCPP - ele only
STPP - ele only
Large CCPP - CHP
Small GE - CHP
Medium CCPP - CHP
GT - ele only
Small CCPP - CHP
Medium GT - CHP
Small GT - CHP
Electric efficiencies of CHP plants are usually lower than those of conventional power plants
Project Workshop Green-X Renewable Energy House, September 23rd 2003, Brussels Green-X
TechnoTechno--Economic data for CHP plantsEconomic data for CHP plants
2020 current technique GT CC CCplant-size [MWe] 5,0 100,0 200,0total investment costs [€/kWe] 591,0 674,9 582,9O&M-costs [€/(kW*a)] 73,9 39,7 29,6full load hours [h/a] 2.300,0 2.650,0 2.900,0efficiency electricity [%] 31,2 42 (52) 45 (56)efficiency heat [%] 54,3 46,0 44,0total efficiency [%] 85,5 88,0 89,0heat to power ratio [GWhth/GWhe] 1,7 1,1 1,0life time [a] 30,0 30,0 30,0
Actual costs of electricity from CHP depend on:
• fuel price• heat price• techno-economic plant data as shown below
EL
HEAT
EL
MOFUEL
el
FIXVARIABLE
HCRFIR
HCC
qCCC **10001000& +
∗+=+= −
Project Workshop Green-X Renewable Energy House, September 23rd 2003, Brussels Green-X
Electricity demand Electricity demand -- baseline scenariobaseline scenario
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Year
Gro
ss e
lect
ricity
dem
and
[TW
h]
UK
SE
ES
PT
NL
LU
IT
IE
GR
DE
FR
FI
DK
BE
AT
Source: Shared Analysis (2003)
Project Workshop Green-X Renewable Energy House, September 23rd 2003, Brussels Green-X
DSM ActivitiesDSM ActivitiesMain Sectors for DSM activities in the electricity sector are:! Industry! Households! Service sector
each containing various sub-sectors, for example the industry sector includes:
– Iron & Steel– Non-ferrous metals– Engineering– Foundries (including iron/steel and non-ferrous metals foundries)– Food– Chemicals– Glass and Glass Products– Ceramics– Cement– Cross sector technologies - including compressed air, lighting, refrigeration
Project Workshop Green-X Renewable Energy House, September 23rd 2003, Brussels Green-X
Cost curve for DSM MeasuresCost curve for DSM Measures
Electricity demand [GWh]
pM
DDSM
0
Assessment of achievable
potential year n
0El
ectri
city
Pric
e [€
/MW
h]
= le
vel a
t whi
ch
DSM
act
ivity
will
be
impl
emen
ted
Cost efficient DS activities assuming a
market price pM
Not cost efficient DS activities assuming a
market price pM
Project Workshop Green-X Renewable Energy House, September 23rd 2003, Brussels Green-X
DataData--Base DSMBase DSM
Band Name
Long term potential energy saving
compared to BAU 2020
Share of realisable
energy saving
potental compared to
long-term potential
Maximum yearly
realisable penetration of energy
saving compared to
BAU
Level of electricity
costs where DSM
measure is economical efficienct
Additional Investment costs year n
Energy saving per unit service
output
Additional O&M costs
independend from
electricity consumption
Life time of implemented technology
Life time alternative
option
Comment alterntechnology / end
[GWh/year][% of long-term energy
saving][GWh/year] [€/MWh] [€/ unit
output][MWh / unit
output][€/ unit output] [years] [years]
GER-E-DSM-N-I-NFM2 1533,3 1% 15,33 24,17 548,83 2,667 0,00 20 20 Primary Smelting (Hall-Heroult) stable cathodeGER-E-DSM-N-I-NFM3 520,7 5% 26,03 15,24 105 0,906 0,00 15 15 Primary Smelting (Hall-Heroult) good housekeeGER-E-DSM-N-I-NFM4 773,1 1% 7,73 6,97 85 1,344 0,00 25 25 Primary Smelting (Hall-Heroult) improved proceGER-E-DSM-N-I-NFM5 442,4 3% 14,75 17,07 99,89 0,769 0,00 15 15 Primary Smelting (Hall-Heroult) best practiseGER-E-DSM-N-I-NFM6 72,5 4% 2,72 0,00 4,2 0,045 -1,40 15 15 Al: Further Treatment Furnace control systemGER-E-DSM-N-I-NFM7 72,5 3% 2,42 17,51 0,7 0,045 0,70 15 15 Al: Further Treatment Furnace monitoring & taGER-E-DSM-N-I-NFM8 143,3 4% 5,37 1,25 0,85 0,089 0,00 15 15 Al: Further Treatment Furnace improved manaGER-E-DSM-N-I-NFM9 13,2 2% 0,20 24,39 6,7 0,036 0,00 15 15 Sec. Smelting (Shaft furnace) impr. refineryGER-E-DSM-N-I-NFM10 21,9 2% 0,53 55,32 25,2 0,060 0,00 15 15 Sec. Smelting (Shaft furnace) scrap preheatin
Sector/Subsector
Example of most important technology specific information
Project Workshop Green-X Renewable Energy House, September 23rd 2003, Brussels Green-X
Example: NonExample: Non--FerrousFerrous--Metals Metals
Device Name of Energy Efficiency Technol-ogy
Al: Primary Smelting (Hall-Heroult) Reduced demand of anodesAl: Primary Smelting (Hall-Heroult) Stable cathodesAl: Primary Smelting (Hall-Heroult) Good housekeepingAl: Primary Smelting (Hall-Heroult) Improved processAl: Primary Smelting (Hall-Heroult) Best practiseAl: Further Treatment Furnace Control systemsAl: Further Treatment Furnace Monitoring & targetingAl: Further Treatment Furnace Improved managementAl: Sec. Smelting (Shaft furnace) Improved refineryAl: Sec. Smelting (Shaft furnace) Scrap preheatingCu: Further Treatment Furnace Rapid heatingZinc: Hydrometallic Zinc Process H2 diffusion anodesZinc: Hydrometallic Zinc Process Improved electrolysis material
Technologies considered:
Project Workshop Green-X Renewable Energy House, September 23rd 2003, Brussels Green-X
Example: Potential Example: Potential -- NonNon--FerrousFerrous--MetalsMetals
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Elec
trici
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avin
g Po
tent
ial [
GW
h/a]
Project Workshop Green-X Renewable Energy House, September 23rd 2003, Brussels Green-X
Example: Cost Curve Example: Cost Curve -- NonNon--FerrousFerrous--MetalsMetals
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Saving Potential (GWh)
Cost
(€/M
Wh)
FRGE
Project Workshop Green-X Renewable Energy House, September 23rd 2003, Brussels Green-X
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AT BE GE DK ESP FI FR GR IR IT LUX NL PT SWE UK
Elec
trici
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avin
g Po
tent
ial [
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h/a]
Example: Potential Example: Potential -- Household AppliancesHousehold Appliances
Project Workshop Green-X Renewable Energy House, September 23rd 2003, Brussels Green-X
Example: Cost Curve Example: Cost Curve -- Household AppliancesHousehold Appliances
0,00
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Saving Potential (GWh)
Cost
(€/k
Wh)
PTGRDK
Project Workshop Green-X Renewable Energy House, September 23rd 2003, Brussels Green-X
ConclusionsConclusions
! Only about one third of the overall European CHP potential is exploited, large potentials in small scale domestic and large scale industrial CHP
! Costs of electricity from CHP plants normally higher than from conventional power due to lower full load hours, lower electric efficiency, higher investment costs
! Large DSM potential with partially negative costs can be identified in the industry (especially Engineering, NFM, Iron&Steel and Chemicals) and in the household sector