UNITED STATES

MEXICO

ALGERIA

ICELAND

CCO

MALI

TUNISIA

COSTA RICA

PANAMA

REPUBLIC

HAITI

CUBA

GUATEMALAEL SALVADOR

NICARAGUA

HONDURAS

JAMAICA

GUINEA

SIERRA LEONE

LIBERIA GHANA

MAURITIUS

ILE DE LA RÉUNION

GROENLAND(DENMARK)

BURKINAFASO

SENEGALCABO VERDE

ITALY

SPAINPORTUGAL

FRANCE

GERMANY

SWITZERLAND

CANADAIRELAND

UNITED KINGDOM

BELGIUM

BELIZE

BRAZIL

ARGENTINA

PERU

BOLIVIA

VENEZUELA

ECUADOR

KENYA

DR CONGO

SOUTH AFRICA

LESOTHO

ANGOLA

NAMIBIA

ZAMBIA

MOZAMBIQUE

COLOMBIAFRENCHGUYANA

DOMINICAN

GUYANASURINAME

BURUNDI

UGANDA

MALAWI

ZIMBABWE

BOTSWANAPARAGUAY

CHILE

URUGUAY

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

LIBYAEGYPT

SUDAN

MADAGASCAR

NIGER

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

ETHIOPIA

TANZANIA

MAURITANIA

GABON

NIGERIA

CHAD

IVORYCOAST

TOGO

SAO TOME& PRINCIPE

RWANDA

ERITREA

CAMEROON

BENIN

CONGO

SAUDIARABIA

PAKISTAN

OMAN

YEMEN

IRAQIRAN

DJIBOUTI

KUWAIT

UNITEDARABEMIRATES

AFGHANISTAN

KAZAKHSTAN

INDIA

TURKEY

BANGLADESH

ISRAEL

JORDAN

SYRIALEBANON

CYPRUS

NEPAL

KYRGYZSTAN

TAJIKISTANTURKMENISTAN

GEORGIA

ARMENIA

BAHRAINQATAR

UZBEKISTAN

AZERBAIJAN

HUNGARY

POLAND

ROMANIA

BULGARIA

BOSNIA

GREECE

AUSTRIA

SLOVENIA

CZECHREPUBLIC

SLOVAKIA

NORWAY

SWEDEN

FINLAND

UKRAINE

LITHUANIA

LATVIA

ESTONIA

BELARUS

CHINA

INDONESIA

PHILIPPINES

MORO

SRI LANKA

MYANMAR

VIETNAMCAMBODIA

LAOS

MALAYSIA

TAIWAN

MALDIVES

HONG KONG

SINGAPORE

THAILAND

RUSSIA

AUSTRALIA

MONGOLIA

JAPAN

PAPUANEW GUINEA

NEW ZEALAND

SOUTH KOREA

GUINEA-BISSAU

SERBIA

MALTA

PALESTINIANTERRITORIES

NORTH KOREA

COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP • JANUARY 2017

A2

CB

B

A3

A4

C

C

TURKEY

GERMANY

FRANCE

ITALY

SPAIN

UNITED KINGDOM

FINLAND

SWEDEN

DENMARK

PORTUGAL

ICELAND

IRELAND

RUSSIA

LITHUANIA

LATVIA

ROMANIA

POLAND

UKRAINE

BULGARIA

HUNGARY

SLOVAKIA

CZECHREPUBLIC

GREECE

ALBANIA

MONTENEGRO

BOSNIA

CROATIA

SERBIA

NETHERLANDS

LUXEMBOURG

ESTONIA

BELARUS

MALTA

CYPRUS

MOLDOVA

BELGIUM

NORWAY

SLOVENIA

MACEDONIA

SWITZERLAND AUSTRIA

160 COUNTRIES UNDER THE MAGNIFYING GLASSA UNIQUE METHODOLOGY• Macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk

• Comprehension of the business environment

• Microeconomic data collected over 70 years of payment experience

DOWNGRADESUPGRADES

RISK OF BUSINESSES DEFAULTING

VERY LOW LOW QUITE ACCEPTABLE ACCEPTABLE SIGNIFICANT HIGH VERY HIGH EXTREME

A1 A2 A3 A4 B C D E

• End of a ten-month political impasse

• Dynamic, despite slowing, economic

growth: +2.3 % in 2017• Corporate debt has

decreased and business insolvencies

continue to fall• Good export

performance

A3

• Uncertainties over possible protectionist measures related to trade with the USA

• Public investment will be limited, due to continued fiscal restraints as a result of low oil-related revenues

• Economy remains below its growth potential

• The massive influx of refugees has weighed down on wage dynamics, within a context of high unemployment and rising inflation

• High public debt

BC MEXICOSPAIN JORDAN

• Very low growth and contraction of manufacturing activity

• Higher political risk and social discontent

• The rand is expected to remain highly volatile and capital inflows are uncertain

A4KENYA

• Recovery in tourism, greater public investment and improved business climate

• Exports (tea and horticultural products) will continue to increase

• Growth of 4% expected in 2017

• Capital control liberalisation underway is a positive signal for foreign investors

• The level of public debt has fallen sharply and the fiscal budget is expected to remain in surplus

A2ICELAND

• Improvement of the business environment

• Launch of cooperation with China on transport and energy infrastructure

• Accelerating private investment

CPAKISTAN CSOUTH AFRICA

• Confirmation of recovery, with moderate growth

• Consolidation of the banking sector

A4BULGARIABARGENTINA

• Improved businessenvironment since the election of President Macri: liberalizationof the exchange rate, abolition of restrictions on access to foreign exchangeand easing of administrative procedures for imports / exports

D

B

B

A2

C

B

A4