county fiscal outlook february 2, 2010. outline economic environment revenue outlook budget...
TRANSCRIPT
County Fiscal Outlook
February 2, 2010
Outline
• Economic Environment
• Revenue Outlook
• Budget Strategies FY 2010
• Budget Challenges
• Budget Strategies FY 2011
• Summary
Outline
• Economic Environment
• Revenue Outlook
• Budget Strategies FY 2010
• Budget Challenges
• Budget Strategies FY 2011
• Summary
Economic Environment
• October 13 Dr. Zingale
• December 15 Scott Skraban
• January 5 Dr. Snaith
• January 25 Dr. Baker
Dr. Snaith
Presentations
Economic Environment
• Florida’s unemployment
rate reached 11.8% in
December
• Including those that are
underemployed
unemployment rate
rises to 19.5%
Unemployment Rates
Economic Environment
0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%
8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
% U
nem
plo
ym
en
t
Orange County Florida US
Economic Environment
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
$143,500
$319,968
$159,716
Orange County Average Residential Sale Prices
Economic Environment
Statewide Foreclosures 302,161
Economic Environment
Orange County Foreclosure Filings
2006 2007 2008 2009
5,067
11,351
26,131
*31,000
* Projected
2006 2007 2008 2009
Economic Environment
Orange County Housing Starts
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Single-Family Multi-Family
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
10,863
1,661
440
26
Economic Environment
Outline
• Economic Environment
• Revenue Outlook
• Budget Strategies FY 2010
• Budget Challenges
• Budget Strategies FY 2011
• Summary
• Tourist Development Tax • Building Permits• Utility Connection Fees
Enterprise Revenues
Revenue Outlook
$163 $168
$142 $138
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
Millio
ns
2007 2008 2009 2010Budget
Revenue Outlook
Tourist Development Tax
-15.4%3.2%25.5% -3.0%
$20 $19
$14
$8$7
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
Millio
ns
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Budget
Revenue Outlook
Building Permit Revenue
-2.5% -29.1% -40.8% -13.8%
$45 $44
$27
$9 $9
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
Millio
ns
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Budget
Revenue Outlook
Utility Connection Fees
-2.1% -39.4% -64.4% Flat
• Property Taxes
• Sales Tax
• Public Service Tax
• Impact Fees
• Recording Fees
Revenue Outlook
NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP OCT
Revenue Outlook
2010 Property AppraiserAssessment Date
TaxableValueEstimate
PreliminaryTaxableValue
FinalTaxableValue
StateTaxableValueEstimate
Revenue Outlook 2011 and Beyond• Property Tax Outlook–FY 2011 – (10%)
• Sales Tax –FY 2011 - (2.0%)
Revenue Outlook
Revenue Outlook
• Countywide Property Tax– Millage rate 4.4347 down from 5.1639 in FY 2007
• Sheriff MSTU– Millage rate 1.8043 down from 2.1234 in FY 2007
• Fire MSTU– Millage rate 2.2437 down from 2.5862 in FY 2007
• Sales Tax• PST • State Revenue Sharing
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
2007 2008 2009 2010
Mil
lion
s
Countywide Tax
Sheriff MSTU
Fire MSTU
Sales Tax
PST
State SharedRevenue
$959 $959 $942
$853
($89)
$474 $476 $475 $428
$107 $107 $105$94
$130 $133 $131$116
$128 $126 $116 $104
$89 $89 $88 $87
Major Revenue Sources
Revenue Outlook
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Mil
lion
s
Countywide Tax
Sheriff MSTU
Fire MSTU
Sales Tax
PST
State SharedRevenue
$959 $959 $942
$853
($89)
$474 $476 $475 $428
$107 $107 $105$94
$130 $133 $131$116
$128 $126 $116 $104
$89 $89 $88 $87
$784
$385
$84
$105
$102
$85
($69)-10%
Major Revenue Sources
Revenue Outlook
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Mil
lion
s
Countywide Tax
Sheriff MSTU
Fire MSTU
Sales Tax
PST
State SharedRevenue
$959 $959 $942
$853
($89)
$474 $476 $475 $428
$107 $107 $105$94
$130 $133 $131$116
$128 $126 $116 $104
$89 $89 $88 $87
$784
$385
$84
$105
$102
$85
($69)
Major Revenue Sources
Revenue Outlook
Three MainProperty TaxLevies
Countywide
SheriffFire
Revenue Outlook
• Countywide Property Tax$385M
• Sheriff MSTU $ 84M
• Fire MSTU$105M
TOTAL$574M
Three Major Property Taxes
$574
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mil
lions
Orange County Property Tax Estimates
Revenue Outlook
$574
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mil
lions
Orange County Property Tax Estimates
$711
Revenue Outlook
$574 $579$617
$658
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mil
lions
Orange County Property Tax Estimates
$711 $705
Revenue Outlook
0.8% 6.7% 6.6% 7.1%
$574 $579$617
$658
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mil
lions
Orange County Property Tax Estimates
$711 $705
Revenue Outlook
0.8% 6.7% 6.6% 7.1%
Outline
• Economic Environment
• Revenue Outlook
• Budget Strategies FY 2010
• Budget Challenges
• Budget Strategies FY 2011
• Summary
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
2007 2008 2009 2010
Mil
lion
s
Countywide Tax
Sheriff MSTU
Fire MSTU
Sales Tax
PST
State SharedRevenue
$959 $959 $942
$853
($89)
$474 $476 $475 $428
$107 $107 $105$94
$130 $133 $131$116
$128 $126 $116 $104
$89 $89 $88 $87
Major Revenue Sources
Budget Strategies FY 2010
• Reduced Operating Budgets
• Used Prior Year Cash Savings
• Froze CIP Projects
• Adjusted Reserves
$60M
$30M
Budget Strategies FY 2010
• Public Safety -3.2%
• Outside Agencies -3.4%
• General Government -12.1%
Budget Strategies FY 2010
Budget Strategies FY 2010
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
3,200
3,300
3,400
3,500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Em
plo
yees
General County Employees (Excludes: Const. Offices, Enterprise Operations, and Public Safety)
Outline
• Economic Environment
• Revenue Outlook
• Budget Strategies FY 2010
• Budget Challenges
• Budget Strategies FY 2011
• Summary
Cost cutting measures to conserve cashPast investments in infrastructureReduction in Risk Management costsHealthy reserves
Budget Challenges
Good News
Bad News
Rising unemployment & foreclosuresEconomic uncertaintyDeclining revenuesState budget deficit/unfunded mandatesIncreasing service needs
Public Safety• Sheriff
– Largest budget in county– Budget consists primarily of personnel costs and
fuel
• Corrections– Budget highly dependent on inmate population– Medical care costs– Legislative impacts
• Fire Rescue– New stations and equipment replacement on
hold– Various programs on hold– Trend not sustainable
Budget Challenges
Health Services and Family Services• PCAN
– Increases in healthcare costs and expensive secondary care creates financial challenges
– Restructure program to control costs
• Medicaid– Medicaid enrollment is increasing significantly– Healthcare reform proposals advocate extending
Medicaid to more individuals– Changes in State law may further exacerbate
budget shortfall
• Family Services Programs– Increasing demand for mental health and
homeless issues– Funding for safety net programs
Budget Challenges
Budget Challenges
• Administrative Services– Escalating maintenance costs – Fuel price volatility– Lease obligations
• Community & Environmental Services– Operating and maintaining current parks– Limited funding for Total Maximum Daily
Load (TMDL)/water quality
• Public Works– Providing adequate O&M funding continues
to be a challenge– Level of services have been reduced– CIP challenges
Admin. Services, C & E Services, Public Works
• LYNX– Current funding $35 million– Impact of 7% reduction
• Healthcare– $96 million program covering 9,000
employees and 19,000 members
– Medical trend is 9% increase
– Future funding challenges
• Employee Benefits– Structural changes
Budget Challenges
LYNX and Employee Benefits
Outline
• Economic Environment
• Revenue Outlook
• Budget Strategies FY 2010
• Budget Challenges
• Budget Strategies FY 2011
• Summary
Budget Strategies FY 2011
General Government
$254M
Public Safety$482M
Outside Agencies $142M
FY 2010 Tax Based Operating Budget
Public Safety$482M
Public Safety2010 Tax Based Operating Budget
• Sheriff $184M
• Fire Rescue 145 • Corrections 146• Other 7TOTAL $482M
Budget Strategies FY 2011
FY 2010
• Administrative Services $46M• Family Services 45• Health Services 43• Parks & Recreation 30• Comm. & Environ. Services 20• Growth Management 10• Other 60
TOTAL $254M
General Government
$254M
FY 2010
General Government2010 Tax Based Operating Budget
Budget Strategies FY 2011
• Constitutional Officers $ 53M• LYNX 35• Other 54 (CRAs, Outside Agencies, Courts, CRP)
TOTAL $142M
Outside Agencies $142M
Outside Agencies2010 Tax Based Operating Budget
Budget Strategies FY 2011
FY 2010
Budget Strategies FY 2011
General Government
$254M
Public Safety$482M
Outside Agencies $142M
Tax Based Operating Budget
General Government
$254M
Public Safety$482M
Outside Agencies $142M
Tax Based Operating Budget
$70M Reduction
Budget Strategies FY 2011
• Savings from FY 2009 Budget
• CIP Adjustments
• Operating Budget Cuts
Budget Strategies FY 2011
• Savings from FY 2009 Budget $15M
• CIP Adjustments
• Operating Budget Cuts
Budget Strategies FY 2011
• Commuter Rail $35M
• Corrections $10M
Total
Budget Strategies FY 2011
Capital Improvements Program
$45M
• Commuter Rail $35M
• Corrections $10M
Total
Budget Strategies FY 2011
Capital Improvements Program
$45M
$30M Cash Funding
$15M Finance
• Savings from FY 2009 Budget $15M
• CIP Adjustments $15M
• Operating Budget Cuts
Budget Strategies FY 2011
• Savings from FY 2009 Budget $15M
• CIP Adjustments $15M
• Operating Budget Cuts $40M
Budget Strategies FY 2011
• 7% budget cuts for BCC & Constitutional Offices– Cut programs
– Reduce level of service
– Delete vacant positions
– Possible layoffs
Budget Strategies FY 2011
Operating Budget Cuts
• Direct impact on employees– Wage freeze
– Mandatory 5 day furloughs
– Changes in health care benefits & co-pays
– Early retirement incentives– Appointed BCC employees will lose 4 days of
administrative leave
Budget Strategies FY 2011
Operating Budget Cuts
• Outside agencies will have their budget cut by 7%
Budget Strategies FY 2011
Operating Budget Cuts
• Savings from FY 2009 Budget $15M
• CIP Adjustments $15M
• Operating Budget Cuts $40M
Budget Strategies FY 2011
$70 Million
Outline
• Economic Environment
• Revenue Outlook
• Budget Strategies FY 2010
• Budget Challenges
• Budget Strategies FY 2011
• Summary
• Economic uncertainty
• Decreasing revenues
• No new taxes
• Balance budget
– Savings
– CIP adjustments
– 7% decrease in operating budgets
Summary
• Public Safety– Sheriff’s Office– Corrections– Fire Rescue
Summary – Next Steps
February 2, 2010
• Health Services and Family Services– PCAN, Medicaid– Family Services Programs
• Community & Environmental Services, Public Works– Parks, TMDL– Public Works
February 16, 2010
• LYNX
• Administrative Services– Facilities, Fleet, Leases
• Employee Health Care and Benefits
Summary – Next Steps
February 23, 2010
County Fiscal Outlook
February 2, 2010