county of los angelescao.lacity.org/debt/invconf2016/4.pdfthe residential real estate market...
TRANSCRIPT
1
County of Los Angeles Los Angeles 3rd Regional Investors Conference Playa Vista Silicon Beach
March 31, 2016
2
Los Angeles County is the most populous county in the nation and has an economy larger than 44 states
─ With approximately 10 million people, represents over 26% of the State’s population
─ Includes the City of Los Angeles with approximately 4 million people and 87 other cities and unincorporated areas
─ 2015 gross product of $644.2 billion
─ County's unemployment rate declined to 5.6% in February, the lowest rate in over 8 years
County is governed by a 5-member Board of Supervisors
In California, counties combine local, State and Federal revenues to administer a broad scope of programs at the local level
County has strong financial management and budgeting practices which foster fiscal prudence and long term strategic planning
— Budget is based on realistic revenue assumptions
— County does not backfill State or Federal funding cuts to County administered programs
— A reserve for Rainy Day funds is established at 10% of ongoing locally generated revenue
County Overview
Overview
Public Protection Culture and Recreation
General Government Healthcare
Social Services
3
FY 2015-16 Final Adopted Budget
Total General County Budget is $21.729 billion for FY 2015-16
Total General County Budget accounts for approximately 77.1% of the FY 2015-16 Budget
Special Funds represent approximately 22.9% of the FY 2015-16 Budget
Total General Fund Requirements ($ thousands) Total General Fund Revenue ($ thousands)
Source: County of Los Angeles
Fund ($ billions)
FY 2014-15 Final Adopted
Budget FY 2015-16 Final Adopted Budget Difference
Total General County Budget $20.948 $21.729 $0.781
Special Funds/Districts $6.193 $6.466 $0.273
Total Budget $27.141 $28.195 $1.054
Budgeted Positions 105,503 108,093 2,590
General $2,548,069
12%
Health $6,590,413
30%
Public Assistance $6,446,374
30%
Public Protection $5,674,407
26%
Other $469,434
2%
GeneralHealthPublic AssistancePublic ProtectionOther
Property Taxes $4,765,596
22%
State Assistance $5,542,998
26% Federal Assistance $4,236,481
19%
Charges for Services
$4,260,878 20%
Other $2,922,744
13% Property Taxes
State Assistance
Federal Assistance
Charges for Services
Other
County Budget
4
County Budget Goals and Update
County Budget Goals
Provide a strong foundation for the future
Improve county jails and reform criminal justice system
Improve safety in the child welfare system
Enhance patient care in conjunction with the Affordable Care Act
Continue to build financial reserves
Implement funding plan to address OPEB liability
Net County Cost Budget Gap ($ millions)
County Budget Update
Current 2015-16 results indicate that the County is operating within budget
Budgetary fund balance is trending approximately 3.0% higher year-over-year
2016-17 Recommended Budget expected to fund ongoing expenditures with ongoing revenues
Source: County of Los Angeles
0.0 0.0 0.0
103.6 185.3
491.6 360.5
33.0
$0.0 $100.0 $200.0 $300.0 $400.0 $500.0 $600.0
2015-162014-152013-142012-132011-122010-112009-102008-09
County Budget
5
GAAP Fund Balance in Excess of $3.1 Billion
Fiscal Year-End Fund Balance History1
1 Beginning in Fiscal Year 2010–11, the County displays final GAAP fund balances as "non-spendable," "restricted," "committed," "assigned", and "unassigned.". Fund balance formerly referred to as "unreserved-undesignated" is now classified as "unassigned."
1
$401 $422 $478 $597 $540 $784
$1,017
$1,522 $1,235
$1,153 $972 $619
$909
$794 $1,367 $1,624
$1,655 $1,592
$259 $260 $254 $272 $272 $35 $55 $60 $41 $55
$332 $529 $483 $334
$763 $405
$376 $538 $492
$1,665 $1,590
$1,661 $1,769 $2,035
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Nonspendable Balance Restricted Balance Committed Balance Assigned Balance Unassigned Balance
Reserved Balance Unreserved-Designated Balance Unreserved-Undesignated Balance
$2,327
$2,738
$3,080
$3,374
$3,166 $2,995
$2,722 $2,642
$2,879
$3,103 $3,188
Fund Balance & Cash Flow Analysis
6
Locally Generated Revenue Trends
Key Locally Generated Revenues Have Increased In Excess of 15% Over the Last Several Years ($ millions)
1 Does not include property tax revenue associated with redevelopment dissolution 2 Does not include any VLF revenue received as a result of service caseload. Includes only those amounts that vary in direct proportion to actual VLF collections. 3Estimate for 2015 locally generated revenues based on historical quarterly revenue growth Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
2007-08 Actual
2008-09 Actual
2009-10 Actual
2010-11 Actual
2011-12 Actual
2012-13 Actual
2013-14 Actual
2014-15 Actual
2015-16 Final Budget
Property Tax1 $ 3,667.1 $ 3,816.3 $ 3,732.5 $ 3,711.4 $ 3,747.5 $ 3,848.7 $ 4,083.4 $ 4,284.1 $ 4,526.5
VLF Realignment2 18.5 17.0 15.8 15.8 14.7 17.2 17.2 17.0 17.0
Deed Transfer 56.4 36.5 44.5 45.1 48.3 66.0 71.8 79.9 78.0
Local Sales Tax 43.0 38.9 33.3 34.2 38.8 46.7 43.6 47.8 45.0
Prop 172 Sales Tax 623.0 547.9 533.1 556.6 607.5 644.6 676.6 691.6 722.2
Total $ 4,408.0 $ 4,456.6 $ 4,359.2 $ 4,363.1 $ 4,456.8 $ 4,623.2 $ 4,892.6 $ 5,117.4 $ 5,388.7
Locally Generated Revenues3, GDP & Inflation
-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Locally Generated Revenue Growth US GDP Growth US Inflation
2015
County Revenue Analysis
7
Gross Property Tax Collections Exceed 100% of Levy
LA COUNTY 1% AD VALOREM LEVY (NET OF RDA ADJUSTMENTS)
Year Total Tax Levy CollectionsCollections as % of Original Levy
Delinquent Collections Total Collections
Total Collections as % of Original Levy
2010-11 2,423,866,266.73$ 2,369,935,055.04$ 97.77% 92,937,882.87$ 2,462,872,937.91$ 101.61%2011-12 2,471,700,692.63 2,423,125,701.11 98.03% 61,087,898.21 2,484,213,599.32 100.51%2012-13 2,534,711,362.81 2,495,317,018.61 98.45% 58,015,848.79 2,553,332,867.40 100.73%2013-14 2,662,244,197.49 2,623,480,895.39 98.54% 48,308,441.63 2,671,789,337.02 100.36%2014-15 2,813,474,388.97 2,773,124,192.62 98.57% 45,708,965.93 2,818,833,158.55 100.19%
Over the prior five years, total tax collections for the County General Fund have exceeded the annual tax levy
Collection percentages for the current-year tax levy have ranged from 97.77% to 98.57%
Delinquent collections include payments from prior year tax rolls plus the following penalties:
— 10% delinquency penalty on gross amount of original levy
— 1.5% monthly interest rate penalty
Including delinquent payments, County General Fund has collected between 100.19% and 101.61% of the annual levy since 2010-11
Property Tax Collection
8
Assessed Value Is Well Above Pre-Recession Levels
Net Assessed Valuation, AV Per Capita and YOY Growth Rates
$824
$914
$998
$1,068 $1,062 $1,042 $1,056 $1,080 $1,130
$1,192
$1,265
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Bill
ions
Net Assessed Valuation AV Per Capita
Source: County of Los Angeles
10.90% 9.22% 7.00% (0.51)% (1.87)% 1.36% 2.20% 4.66% 5.47% 6.13%
After the economic downturn, the County has experienced five consecutive years of accelerating AV growth
Assessed Property Valuation
9
Residential Real Estate Market Outlook Remains Positive
The residential real estate market experienced strong growth in 2015
— New and existing home sales increased 6.7% from 2014 to 2015
— Average median new and existing home price increased by 6.9% from 2014 to 2015
Significant "stored value" as a result of Proposition 13 cushioned the impact of declining home values during the economic downturn
─ Although average median home prices decreased by 41% from 2007-2011, assessed valuation increased by 1% over the corresponding valuation period (FY 2008-09 to FY 2012-13)
Proposition 13 will continue to provide future stability for the County's primary source of discretionary revenue
Source: Real Estate Research Council of Southern California – 4rd Quarter 2015
Residential real estate sector continues to improve throughout the County
Historical Combined New and Existing Home Sales and Median Price (2004-2015*)
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
# Sales $ Sales Price Median Home Price Homes Sales
Real Estate Market
10
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY 12-13 FY 14-15 Est FY 12-13 FY 14-15 Est
Medi-CalUninsuredOther
Inpatient Outpatient
Department of Health Services (DHS) Will Deliver Budgetary Surplus in 2015-16
Recent DHS Performance DHS is becoming less reliant on County support
— Net County Cost to DHS is down more than 23% since its peak in FY 2007-08
Historic low in FY 2014-15 driven by strong Waiver receipts and initial inflow of ACA revenues
Higher-than-anticipated revenues continued in FY 2015-16 and will result in an operating surplus of approximately $223 million for DHS
— June 30, 2016 fund balance is projected to be in excess of $350 million
DHS Patient Payer Mix: Pre vs. Post Reform*
% of County Contributions – DHS
¹ Other category primarily represents patients with Medicare and private insurance coverage. *The County projects the FY 2015-16 DHS Patient Payer Mix to be similar to FY 2014-15
18.2%
16.3% 16.3%
16.2% 15.9%
14.4% 14.0%
12.6%
15.4%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
NC
C a
s %
of T
otal
DH
S B
udge
t
Department of Health Services
11
Martin Luther King, Jr. Community Hospital
MLK Hospital reopened in July 2015 after undergoing several years of renovations
MLK Hospital is County-owned, but operated by the nonprofit MLK-LA Healthcare Corporation and services residents from all over South Los Angeles including Compton, Inglewood, Watts, Willowbrook and Lynwood
MLK Hospital is a state-of-the-art hospital providing inpatient primary care, emergency services, health education and outreach services — 131 beds providing general acute care — 21-bed emergency department — A critical care unit — Labor and delivery services — Radiology and imaging
Opening of facility will create more than 1,800 jobs in the area with approximately 900 jobs at the hospital
Department of Health Services
12
Retirement System – Overview
LACERA provides retirement benefits to all general and safety (sheriff, fire and lifeguard) members
LACERA membership totaled 167,409 as of June 30, 2015, including 60,606 retirees
Using the market value of assets (no smoothing), the funded ratio would have been 85.0% as of June 30, 2015
— $980 million on deferred investment gains were still to be recognized as of June 30, 2015
Retirement System has been well managed, as evidenced by funding ratios in excess of state and national medians
Source: Milliman Actuarial Valuation (of LACERA) for June 30, 2014; Appendix A
FYE 6/30
Total Investment Portfolio Market Value
Total Fund Return
Unrecognized Gains / (Losses) Due to 5-Year Smoothing
Actuarial Assumed Rate of Return Funded Ratio
2010 $ 33,433,888 11.6% $ (6,210,553) 7.75% 83.3%
2011 39,452,011 20.4 (606,846) 7.70 80.6
2012 38,306,756 0.3 (1,586,386) 7.60 76.8
2013 41,773,519 12.1 1,401,477 7.50 75.0
2014 47,722,277 16.8 3,568,701 7.50 79.5
2015 48,818,350 4.3 980,000 7.50 83.3
Fair Value, Rates of Return and Funded Ratio ($000)
Los Angeles County Employees Retirement Association (LACERA) Overview
Retirement System
13
July 1, 2014 OPEB Actuarial Valuation reported a $27.288 billion OPEB liability
County is implementing an annual pre-funding mechanism to manage its OPEB liability
— Current value of OPEB Trust is approximately $530 million as of January 31, 2016
— $24 million budgetary deposit to OPEB Trust in FY 2015-16
— $50 million transfer from excess retiree health premium reserve in January 2016
Recent elimination of spousal and dependent coverage and mandatory enrollment in Medicare for new employees is expected to save more than $840 million in OPEB pay-as-you-go costs over the next 30 years
OPEB Liability and Expenditures
1 Preliminary estimates, subject to change. Source: Milliman Actuarial Valuation (of LACERA) for June 30, 2014, Los Angeles County CAFRs and County of Los Angeles Chief Executive Office.
FYE 6/30
Pension Payment to LACERA
OPEB Payment to LACERA
Pension Obligation Bonds Debt Service
Total Pension and OPEB Related
Payments Percent of Total County Budget
2011 $ 898,803 $ 406,937 $ 372,130 $ 1,677,870 9.1%
2012 1,026,867 424,030 – 1,450,897 7.8
2013 1,118,514 441,062 – 1,559,577 8.1
2014 1,262,754 446,979 – 1,709,733 8.5
2015 1,430,426 450,202 -- 1,880,664 9.0
20161 1,376,490 507,192 -- 1,883,682 8.7
County Pension and OPEB Related Payments ($000)
OPEB
14
County General Fund Debt Profile
County Debt Profile
County has financed its capital needs through a combination of pay-go expenditures and lease obligations
As of December 31, 2015, all of the County’s $1.540 billion long-term general fund lease revenue bonds and certificates of participation are fixed rate obligations
Commercial Paper Program provides cost-effective interim financing
Fitch upgraded the County’s appropriation-backed debt (e.g., lease revenue bonds) to AA- and its Issuer Credit Rating to AA in February 2016
Implied GO Ratings Aa2 (Positive) / AA+ (Stable) / AA (Stable)
Modest Debt Burden
Debt Service as a % of County Expenditures 1.30%
Principal as a % of total Assessed Valuation 0.13%
Debt per Capita $162
Lease Revenue Bond Ratings A1 (Positive) / AA (Stable) / AA- (Stable)
15
County Debt Overview
All of the County’s long-term debt is fixed rate and typically structured with level debt service
Debt ratios improve further if debt service is viewed net of outside funding sources (California Courthouse Construction Fund and Federal Subsidies)
The County maintains a low debt burden and has significant flexibility and capacity to issue additional debt
1 Does not include operating leases. 2Net Debt Service includes long-term lease obligations but nets from the total contributions those payments that are received from external sources such as the courthouse
construction fund, federal subvention, and subsidies for Build America Bonds and Recovery Zone Economic Development Bonds.
Annual General Fund Net Debt Service1, 2 ($ millions)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
FY 2
016
FY 2
017
FY 2
018
FY 2
019
FY 2
020
FY 2
021
FY 2
022
FY 2
023
FY 2
024
FY 2
025
FY 2
026
FY 2
027
FY 2
028
FY 2
029
FY 2
030
FY 2
031
FY 2
032
FY 2
033
FY 2
034
FY 2
035
FY 2
036
FY 2
037
FY 2
038
FY 2
039
FY 2
040
FY 2
041
FY 2
042
FY 2
043
FY 2
044
FY 2
045
Deb
t Ser
vice
($ m
illio
ns)
General Fund 2016D Proposed Debt Service Net Debt Service
County Debt Profile
16
2016-17 TRANs
2016 Financing Calendar
County expects to issue approximately $800 million of 2016-17 Tax and Revenue Anticipation Notes
─ Pricing is currently scheduled for early June 2016
Structure will include a single bullet maturity which will mature on June 30, 2017
County TRANs are supported by a strong cash position and access to substantial alternative liquidity sources
─ June 30, 2016 ending cash balance is estimated at over $900 million
─ Including borrowable resources available to the General Fund, June 30, 2016 cash balance should comfortably exceed $2.3 billion
County ratings on current 2015-16 TRANs are as follows:
─ Standard & Poor’s: SP-1+
─ Moody’s: MIG 1
─ Fitch: F1+
17
Lease Revenue Bonds
2016 Financing Calendar
$255,855,000 Public Works Financing Authority Lease Revenue Bonds, 2016 Series D
─ Closed on March 17, 2016
─ Proceeds used to redeem outstanding commercial paper notes issued to finance the new Martin Luther King Jr. Community Hospital
Future County Lease Revenue Bond Financings Include:
─ Public Works Financing Authority - $80 million Par (Q3 2016)
─ Los Angeles County Capital Asset Leasing Corporation (LACCAL) - $30 million Par (Q2 2017)
─ Consolidated Correctional Treatment Facility (Jail Replacement Project) - $1.5 to 2 billion Par (Timing TBD)
Current lease revenue bond ratings are as follows:
─ Standard & Poor’s: AA
─ Moody’s A1
─ Fitch AA-
18
2016 County Redevelopment Bond Refunding Program
2016 Financing Calendar
Established in January 2013, the County Redevelopment Bond Refunding Program seeks to refinance outstanding tax allocation bonds issued by the 71 former redevelopment agencies in the County
Refunding revenue bonds are issued by a County JPA and include structural enhancements that make the credit superior to stand-alone transactions:
─ County intercept of all debt service payments
─ County management of continuing disclosure and other post-issuance tasks
In June 2015, $156 million of refunding bonds were issued on behalf of the Successor Agency to the Redevelopment Agency of the City of Long Beach
─ Generated gross debt service savings in excess of $60 million
─ All savings benefit local taxing entities, including the County, cities, and school districts
County anticipates issuing more than $250 million in tax allocation refunding revenue bonds in late 2016
In 2015, the County’s Redevelopment Bond Refunding Program won the National Association of Counties (NACo) Achievement Award - Best in Category (Financial Management)
-
19
Closing Remarks
Conservative fiscal policies and prudent financial management have eliminated the County’s structural budget deficit
Strong property tax base (with significant stored value) provides revenue stability
Department of Health Services is considerably less reliant on County support
Significant steps taken to pre-fund the OPEB liability
Low debt burden with substantial debt capacity
Closing Remarks
20
Contact Information
County of Los Angeles
Contact Information
Keith Knox Chief Deputy
Phone: 213-974-0703 Email: [email protected]
John Patterson Senior Finance Analyst Phone: 213-974-2310
Email: [email protected]
Joseph Kelly Treasurer and Tax Collector
Investor Information
http://ttc.lacounty.gov